An Overview of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS ) Drought … · 2019-02-02 · below normal...
Transcript of National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS ) Drought … · 2019-02-02 · below normal...
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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
12 February 2019
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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
12 February 2019
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What’s Ahead
Welcome• Rachel McGuire - Auburn University Water Resources Center
Speakers
» David Zierden - Florida Climate Center; FSU» Paul Ankcorn - USGS» Todd Hamill - SERFC
» Cynthia Donald - USACE
Discussion
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Current Drought Status, Seasonal Forecasts and
Outlooks
David Zierden
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Winter (Dec. – Feb. 11) Precipitation
Rankings Amounts
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CPC Winter Forecast
Rainfall – Last 90 days
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Comparing Winter Outlooks2018 2015
Stronger El Nino does not necessarily mean more rain, just greater confidence in the forecast.
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Current Drought Status
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7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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Current Sea Surface Temperatures
• Nino 3.4 below 0.5C for the last several weeks
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Is El Nino Dying?
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Nino 3.4 Forecast
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NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Feb. – Apr.)
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Typical El Nino Rainfall
March May
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Take Home Messages• 2018 was an exceptionally wet year, particularly for the Eastern U.S.
• Most stations in the ACF basin ranking in the top 5 or top 10 for the winter-to-date
• Entire ACF basin is currently drought-free
• Rainfall above normal at all time scales
• 7-day forecast indicates more widespread rain over the Mississippi/Ohio river valleys, lesser amounts in the middle and lower ACF
• Weak El Nino conditions persist, 75% chance they continue through March
• CPC seasonal forecast (Jan. – Mar.) favors equal chances for temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall
• Weaker El Nino does not necessarily mean less rain, just less confidence in the forecast
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Streamflows and Groundwater
Paul Ankcorn
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Real-time Stream Flow Compared with Historical Monthly Averages
Current:»
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief:
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Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with
historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous Brief:
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Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chattahoochee River near Cornelia (02331600)
Chestatee River near Dahlonega (02333500)
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28-day Average Streamflow
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000)
Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)
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28-day Average Streamflow
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Chattahoochee at Columbus (02341460)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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28-day Average Streamflow
Flint River near Griffin (02344500)
Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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28-day Average Streamflow
Flint River at Albany (02352500)
Flint River at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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28-day Average Streamflow
» Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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Real-time Groundwater Conditions
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief Current Brief
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Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001
(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
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Groundwater Status – Dougherty County 11K003
(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
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Summary
• Real-time streamflows in the ACF basin are currently in the much below normal to high range.
• 28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia, and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the above normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in above normal to much above normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in above normal range.
• Groundwater levels range from much below normal to high across the ACF Basin.
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Streamflow Forecasts
Todd Hamill
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Summary
• 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal
• 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Above Normal
• Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
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USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions
Cynthia Donald
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
Summary
• All projects are currently above guide curve.
• Evacuating the flood pool at each project to prepare for the next event.
• The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
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Questions or Comments?
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Acknowledgements
Speakers» David Zierden, FSU» Paul Ankcorn, USGS» Todd Hamill, SERFC» Cynthia Donald, USACE
Moderator» Rachel McGuire, AUWRC
Additional Information» General Drought Information
• www.drought.gov• www.drought.unl.edu
» General Climate and El Nino Information• www.agroclimate.org/climate/
» Streamflow Monitoring and Forecasting• www.waterwatch.usgs.gov• www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/
» Groundwater Monitoring• www.groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
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Thank YouRachel McGuire334 844 [email protected]/wrc
Next Briefing:
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 1:00 pm ET
Slides from this briefing will be posted at:
aaes.auburn.edu/wrc/extensionprograms/drought