NATIONAL IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, JCSDA Evaluation … · 2020. 11. 30. · 7th WMO Workshop on...
Transcript of NATIONAL IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, JCSDA Evaluation … · 2020. 11. 30. · 7th WMO Workshop on...
Building a Weather-Ready Nation // 1NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Evaluation of the impact of various observing systems on forecast skill in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)November 30, 20207th WMO Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP
Catherine Thomas1, Daryl Kleist1, Iliana Genkova2, Hui Shao3, Kristen Bathmann2, Haixia Liu2, Xingren Wu2, Vijay Tallapragada1, Peter Black2, Stephen Lord1, Fanglin Yang1
1 NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, 2 IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, 3 JCSDA
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Recent and Planned Upgrades to the GFS• GFSv15.1 (June 2019)
• Initial implementation of FV3-based GFS
• Increase analysis increment & ensemble resolution
• GFSv15.2 (November 2019)• GOES-17 AMVs, KOMPSAT-5
GPS, METOP-C AMSU-A and MHS
• NSST Updates
• GFSv15.3 (May 2020)• COSMIC-2
• GFSv16 (February 2021)• 127 Layers, ~80km model top • Modulated-ensemble LETKF• 4D-IAU• Correlated observation errors• VarQC re-design• Metop-C GNSSRO• Geostationary CSR• HDOB
• GFSv16.1 (TBD)• Leo-Geo AMVs• GMI, Precipitation affected MW• NPP OMPS-LP, N20 OMPS-NP/TC
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Forecast Impacts of COSMIC-2Hui Shao, Kristen Bathmann
COSMIC-2 has a constellation of six satellites, providing about 5000 occultations per day concentrated between 45S-45N latitude. It was launched on June 25, 2019, and its data have been officially released to the public since March 6, 2020.
COSMIC-2
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Forecast Impacts of COSMIC-2Hui Shao, Kristen Bathmann
Bias RMSE
Blue indicates COSMIC-2 reduced forecast errorsRed indicates COSMIC-2 degraded forecast errors
The COSMIC-2 data are showing qualitative positive (blue) impacts on forecasts for most fields.
The results are verified against in-situ observations
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Forecast Impacts of COSMIC-2Hui Shao, Kristen Bathmann
Comparison of forecast temperature error with and without assimilating COSMIC-2 data in the Tropics.
In situ data have been used to verify the results.
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Geostationary RadiancesHaixia Liu
SEVIRI_M11 SEVIRI_M08 AHI_HIM8 ABI_G16
Meteosat-11 Clear Sky Radiance (CSR) are currently operational in GFSv15
GFSv16 will include CSR from
• Meteosat-8 SEVIRI• Himawari-8 AHI• GOES-16 ABI
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Geostationary RadiancesHaixia Liu
RMS of RH Analysis Increments Data Counts from MHS Metop-A
Control: M11 SEVIRI onlyExperiment: With additional CSRs
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Impact of Aircraft High Density Observations (HDOBs)on GFS.v16 Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Xingren Wu, Fanglin Yang, Vijay Tallapragada, Daryl Kleist
• High-density/high-accuracy observations (30 second average) from tropical cyclone reconnaissance aircraft.
• Changes to the GFS are motivated by the successes in HWRF data assimilation.
• Cycled full resolution experiment covering:
• 2018090206-2018091900; 2019082200-2019100206; 2020060100-2020061218; 2020072100-2020080600
• Adding HDOBs in GFSv16 will improve hurricane track (left panel) and intensity (right panel) forecasts in the Atlantic and the Western Pacific, and neutral impact on track forecasts with slight degradation for intensity forecasts in the East Pacific (not shown).
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Dropsonde Data Impact Study of SHOUT/EPOCH Global Hawk in the NCEP Operational GFS
Xingren Wu, Vijay Tallapragada, Peter Black• Cycled control (GHON) and data denial experiments conducted
using NCEP operational GFSv15 with fully cycled 4D-Hybrid En-Var Data Assimilation System.
• NOAA/SHOUT 2016: 2016082100-2016091000; 2016092206-2016101900
• NASA/EPOCH 2017: 2017080700 – 2017100100
• Direct positive impacts during the cycles of the actual Global Hawk flight times
• 10-15% improvement in North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone track forecast errors, especially for days 2-4.
• Some improvements in the intensity forecast skill (especially at day-1 and day-3).
• Indirect positive impacts over the experiments periods (not shown).
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Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Dropsonde Data Impact in the NCEP Operational GFS
Xingren Wu, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord
• Total 32 IOPs, 46 AF C-130 and 16 G-IV missions, 1384 drops assimilated operationally in real-time (2016-2020).
• Data denial experiments conducted using NCEP operational GFSv15 with fully cycled 4D-Hybrid En-Var Data Assimilation System for the entire duration of AR Recon missions.
• Significant (10-30%) improvements are noted in the medium range synoptic forecasts over the Pacific North American region, and precipitation over the West Coast.
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LEO-GEO Atmospheric Motion VectorsIliana Genkova
• High-latitude winds from combined geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imagery• Fills a data-gap in AMVs coverage• Add to observation sparse region near
polar jet stream
OmF (m/s), Sept - Oct 2018
ECMWF Monitoring Page
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LEO-GEO Atmospheric Motion VectorsIliana Genkova
Fit to Radiosondes
500 hPA ACC
Vector Wind RMSE
LEO-GEO AMVs has a positive impact on the winds in the Southern Hemisphere.
Impact is neutral in most other locations and variables. NH
SH
NH SH
Forecast Hour Forecast Hour
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Looking Ahead- Observations explored for future GFS implementations (GFSv16.1+)
- GOES-17 ABI CSR- NPP OMPS-LP- NOAA-20 OMPS-NP, TC- Commercial GNSSRO- GMI- Precipitation-affect MW radiances- Stereo AMVs (GOES/GOES, GOES/Himawari)- VIIRS for near sea surface temperature (NSST) analysis
- Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) and the Unified Forward Operator (UFO): GFSv17+ (~2023)