National Gunfire Index, 2015

8/18/2019 National Gunfire Index, 2015

1/18

National

GunfireIndex Published 03 2016


2/18

2015 National Gunfire Index Published March 2016 2

Table of Contents

3 Foreword

4 Top 3 Findings 2015

4 Top Finding #1

5 Top Finding #2

6 Top Finding #3

7 Gunfire Summary 8 Regional Gunfire Rates

9 Gunfire Rates by Hour Across the Country

10 2014 - 2015 Gunfire Comparison per Square Mile

11 Regional Spotlight

12 Holiday Gunfire Spotlight

13 City Spotlight

17 Methodology and Notes


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2015 has been a remarkable year for reduced

gun violence in the United States. While many cities

reported an uptick in reported homicides, the results of

our gunfire index summarized on the next few pages

outline the fact that many cities and regions have expe-

rienced a significant reduction in gunfire. These cities

are demonstrating measurable declines in shooting inci-

dents with comprehensive focused deterrents leveraging

people, process and technology. We are very proud to

be a part of these positive trends in disrupting the new

normal of gun violence.

SST continues to be a leader in helping to reduce and pre-vent gun violence in urban communities. Gun violence is

more frequent in communities than actual homicides. We

know from our customer work that having police respond

quickly to the exact location of a shooting is in fact building

long-term legitimacy and increasing trust with residents.

ShotSpotter combined with community policing work is

making a difference.

What kind of difference? Cities which use ShotSpotter today

see an average of a 34.7% decrease in gunfire incident

volume in the first 2 years of ShotSpotter use. The deploy-

ment of ShotSpotter is effectively reducing and preventing

gun violence in communities when ShotSpotter is used

combined with other gun violence prevention programs.

This 2015 National Gunfire Index Report details a compre-

hensive analysis and overview of the otherwise under-

reported and therefore unknown instances of gun violence.

Our data continues to be of value to law enforcement

agencies, city leaders, researchers and the media. We invite

you to use this report as a data source to better understand

gunfire trends in communities and see how their shoot-

ing incidents compare to other cities who are also using

ShotSpotter.

Let’s work together to better inform policy makers and the

media with the art of the possible with respect to reducing

gun violence. Our vision is to continue to scale out ourdeployments to more cities and larger coverage areas and

then commercially offer this data to the Federal government

who can then combine this gun violence information

with other big data sets and make it freely available to

researchers and the public. Most importantly, let’s continue

to share information on gun violence prevention strategies

and work to improve those communities where gunfire

is most prevalent.

Please forward this report to your colleagues and friends—

get the word out ! We encourage you to comment on this

report via Twitter, @ShotSpotter .

Ralph A. Clark

President and CEO, SST, Inc.

Foreword

https://twitter.com/shotspotterhttps://twitter.com/shotspotter


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5/18


Top Finding #2

Gunfire rates have decreased significantly on

a per square mile basis in the Northeast and

West census regions.

The gunfire incident rates per square mile decreased

in every region of the country except for the Midwest.

The most significant percent decrease was seen in

the Northeast, where ShotSpotter also has the largest

coverage area.

Top 3 Findings

Gunfire Incidents per Square Mile

173.8

328.9

109.0

196.5

198.9

167.4

349.9

79.5

191.7

155.2

Caribbean 2014

Midwest 2014

Northeast 2014

South 2014

West 2014

Caribbean 2015

Midwest 2015

Northeast 2015

South 2015

West 2015


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7/18


The 2015 Gunfire Summary is based on gunfire data aggregated

from 62 cities across the U.S. that had ShotSpotter Flex

deployed for more than 4/5 of the year.

Incidents: 54,699 / year

Shots Fired: 165,531 / year

Busiest Day: December 25th: 266 incidents in total, 39 in one city.

Single busiest hour for a city:

November 11th at 11:00 PM (24 incidents of gunfire)

Busiest hour of the week:

Saturday 2:00 AM – 2:59 AM (978 incidents)

Worst month for a city:

May 2015 – 422 incidents

Gunfire Summary


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Average Incident Rate by Census Region 2015

140.5Caribbean

351.9Midwest

73.7Northeast

197.5South

143.5West

176.7*National Average

* National Average is defined as total number of incidents divided by total number of square miles.

The average gunfire incident rate per square mile

varies significantly from region to region.

The highest rate of gunfire is in the Midwest with an average

of 351.9 gunfire incidents per square mile during 2015.

The lowest is in the Northeast with 73.7 gunfire incidentsper square mile.

Gunfire rates have continued to decline with the Northeast

and the West having the highest declines of gunfire incidents

year over year.

Regional Gunfire Rates


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Number of Incidents by Hour of Day (local time)

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

45%

61%

3000

2000

Average

1000

Gunfire rates across the country indicate that

most gunfire activity happens in late evening,

into early morning.

45% of all gunfire occurs between 9PM and 1AM.

61% occurs between 8PM and 2AM.

Gunfire Rates by Hour Across the Country


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Gunfire rates have decreased significantly

on a per square mile basis, in the Northeast

and the West census regions.

Overall, the cities in the Northeast region saw a 27.1%

decline and those in the West experienced a 22% drop in

gunfire incidents over the same time period. The median

number of gunfire incidents dropped from

144.7 gunfire incidents per square mile in 2014 to

123.2 gunfire incidents per square mile in 2015*.

The gunfire incident rates per square mile decreased in

every region of the country except for the Midwest.

The most significant percent decrease was seen in the

Northeast, where ShotSpotter also has the largest

coverage area.

2014 - 2015 Gunfire Comparison per Square Mile

Percent Change in Incidents per Square Mile

-3.7%*Caribbean

+6.4%Midwest

-27.1%Northeast

-2.4%South

-22.0%West

* The 46 cities in our sample covered a total of 172.9 square miles.

The median coverage area was 3.04 square miles per city.


11/18


Coverage Area by Census Region (Cities)

19.7Caribbean (5 Cities)

51.7Midwest (11 Cities)

95.6Northeast (26 Cities)

71.5South (15 Cities)

54.2West (12 Cities)

ShotSpotter Coverage Regions

Coverage areas are not evenly distributed across the

country. To illustrate the variability in coverage area size,

we grouped cities within the sample along the four

U.S. Census “Regions.”

We added a single Caribbean region, for which the

Census Bureau does not have a corresponding grouping,

because the region constitutes a meaningful subset of

ShotSpotter coverage areas.

At year end, ShotSpotter captured gunshot data on

292.7 square miles in cities across America.

Regional Spotlight


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Gunfire Incidents During Holiday Periods

In previous years, SST analysis shows that New Year’s Day,

New Year’s Eve and Fourth of July are the days of the year

with by far the highest rate of gunfire incidents.

Gunfire during these holidays is considered “Celebratory

gunfire” because the gunfire is typically celebratory in nature

vs. gunfire with the intention to harm or intimidate.

This analysis excludes New Year’s Day, New Year’s Eve

and July 4th.

In 2015, Christmas day was the highest gunfire rate for a

single normal day outside of New Year’s Eve, New Year’s

Day and the July 4th

holiday period. In 2014, Christmas was among the highest gunfire rate for a single normal day

outside of New Year’s Eve, New Year’s Day and the July 4 th

holiday period.

Holiday Gunfire Spotlight

Gunfire Incidents per Square Mile / U.S. Holiday

0.499

0.764

0.483

0.740

0.459

0.566

0.433

0.509

0.710

0.596

0.882

0.517

0.743

0.577

0.670

0.429

0.636

0.570

0.570

0.689

0.622

0.968

Martin Luther King Day 2014

Mothers Day 2014

Valentines Day 2014

Memorial Day 2014

Presidents Day 2014

Labor Day 2014

St. Patrick’s Day 2014

Veterans Day 2014

Easter 2014

Thanksgiving 2014

Christmas 2014

Martin Luther King Day 2015

Mothers Day 2015

Valentines Day 2015

Memorial Day 2015

Presidents Day 2015

Labor Day 2015

St. Patrick’s Day 2015

Veterans Day 2015

Easter 2015

Thanksgiving 2015

Christmas 2015

SST excluded New Year’s Eve, New Year’s Day and July 4 th

from this analysis as these three holidays are considered

“celebratory gunfire” and not normal gunfire periods.


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City Spotlight

Atlantic City, NJ

“With ShotSpotter technology, our officers now

respond faster to the scene and have been able

to find victims and evidence quickly. ShotSpotter

is also an important tool that helps with improvedcommunity action and engagement, and all of

this has helped us to achieve a 35.4% decrease

in gunfire violence from 2014 to 2015 across the

city. Our goal is to do everything we can to catch

the people who commit gun violence, and

ShotSpotter is helping us do that.”

Chief Henry White

Atlantic City, NJ

GunfireDown-35.4%

San Francisco, CA

“In San Francisco our focus has been on reducing

gun violence and it appears that our efforts and

community partnerships are having the desired

effect. While there is no level of gun violencethat is acceptable but we are headed in the right

direction and we credit ShotSpotter with helping

us achieve this.”

Chief Gregory Suhr

San Francisco, CA

GunfireDown-34.6%


15/18


Cities Examined

SST’s 2015 gunfire summary is based on the following 62 cities:

At year end, ShotSpotter captured gunshot data on 292.7 square miles across America.

City Spotlight

Amityville, NY

Atlantic City, NJ

Baton Rouge, LABayamon, PR

Bell Gardens, CA

Belle Glade, FL

Bellport, NY

Boston, MA

Brentwood, NY

Brockton, MA

Cambridge, MA

Camden, NJ

Canton, OH

Charlotte, NC

Chelsea, MA

Chicago, IL

Denver, CO

Detroit, MI

East Chicago, IN

East Palo Alto, CA

Everett, MA

Northeast

Northeast

SouthCaribbean

West

South

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Midwest

South

Northeast

Midwest

West

Midwest

Midwest

West

Northeast

Fall River, MA

Glendale, AZ

Hartford, CTHempstead, NY

Huntington Station, NY

Jackson, MS

Kansas City, MO

Miami City, FL

Miami Gardens, FL

Milwaukee, WI

Minneapolis, MN

Montgomery, AL

New Bedford, MA

New Haven, CT

Oakland, CA

Omaha, NE

Paterson, NJ

Peoria, IL

Pittsburgh, PA

Plainfield, NJ

Revere, MA

Northeast

West

NortheastNortheast

Northeast

South

Midwest

South

South

Midwest

Midwest

South

Northeast

Northeast

West

Midwest

Northeast

Midwest

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Richmond, CA

Riviera Beach, FL

Rochester, NYRocky Mount, NC

San Francisco, CA

San Juan, PR

San Pablo, CA

Savannah, GA

Somerville, MA

South Bend, IN

Springfield, MA

St. Croix, USVI

St. Louis, MO

St. Thomas, USVI

Stockton, CA

Trujillo Alto, PR

Wilmington, DE

Wilmington, NC

Worcester, MA

Wyandanch, NY

West

South

NortheastSouth

West

Caribbean

West

South

Northeast

Midwest

Northeast

Caribbean

Midwest

Caribbean

West

Caribbean

South

South

Northeast

Northeast


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2 If a city was not using ShotSpotter Flex for more than 4/5 of either 2014 or 2015, that city was excluded from this analysis.

If a city’s contracted coverage area expanded in 2014, the expanded area was not included in this comparison data.

Cities Used in Comparison of 2014 and 2015

When comparing 2014 gunfire data to 2015 gunfire data, 46 cities where ShotSpotter Flex was deployed

during both years were used in this analysis2. The 46 cities that make up the “apples to apples” comparison are:

City Spotlight

Amityville, NY

Atlantic City, NJ

Baton Rouge, LA

Bayamon, PR

Bell Gardens, CA

Belle Glade, FL

Bellport, NY

Brentwood, NY

Brockton, MA

Camden, NJ

Canton, OH

Charlotte, NC

Chicago, ILEast Chicago, IN

East Palo Alto, CA

Fall River, MA

Northeast

Northeast

South

Caribbean

West

South

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

Midwest

South

MidwestMidwest

West

Northeast

Hartford, CT

Hempstead, NY

Huntington Station, NY

Jackson, MS

Kansas City, MO

Miami Gardens, FL

Milwaukee, WI

Minneapolis, MN

New Bedford, MA

New Haven, CT

Oakland, CA

Omaha, NE

Paterson, NJPeoria, IL

Plainfield, NJ

Richmond, CA

Northeast

Northeast

Northeast

South

Midwest

South

Midwest

Midwest

Northeast

Northeast

West

Midwest

NortheastMidwest

Northeast

West

Riviera Beach, FL

Rochester, NY

Rocky Mount, NC

San Francisco, CA

San Juan, PR

San Pablo, CA

South Bend, IN

Springfield, MA

St. Croix, USVI

St. Louis, MO

St. Thomas, USVI

Stockton, CA

Wilmington, NCWyandanch, NY

South

Northeast

South

West

Caribbean

West

Midwest

Northeast

Caribbean

Midwest

Caribbean

West

SouthNortheast


17/18


Methodology and Notes

1. The data in this Index is taken only from the areas covered by Shotspotter systems. Thereis no assurance that conclusions drawn from this data will be valid outside the coverageareas.

2. The 2015 analysis in this report is based on 62 communities that had Shotspotter Flexcoverage (reviewed alerts) and were collecting dat a as of December 31, 2015.

3. In order to perform an apples-to-apples comparison of gunfire rates per square mile for2014 and 2015, only those 46 communities that had Flex coverage for more than 4/5 of

the non-holiday portion of the year in b oth 2014 and 2015 are used in the compar ison.

4. Some communities were not covered during some par ts of 2014 or 2015. Therefore,

when calculating values such as gunfire incidents per square mile, care must be takento account for the different number of days of coverage for dif ferent communities. Thechosen solution was to calculate the number of incidents by day and impute the numberof gunfire incidents for those days for which there was no coverage, taking into account

known information about incident rates for the community, the day of the year, the dayof the week, and the year. This method is like proration, but is more accurate. Imputationof incident data for a year is done only for communities that have coverage data for morethan 4/5 of the non-holiday portion of that year.

This method was cross-checked using cities with two full years of data, comparing actualdata to imputed values for simulated missing values. The average difference by city

between the gunfire rates using imputed values vs. using actual values was only 2.2%,showing that imputation can be relied on to give accurate results.

5. Gunfire incidents for a year period were counted if the local time in the time zone of their

occurrence was between 00:00:00 standard time (i.e., midnight) on January 1 and23:59:59 on December 31st (i.e., 1 second before midnight on January 1).

Incidents during the holiday periods of New Years and 4th of July are not counted in

the statistics unless explicitly noted because of the prevalence of celebratory gunfireduring those holiday periods and the fact that it is highly inconsistent with the normalpatterns. The holiday periods are from December 30, 2013 to January 2, 2014,December 30, 2014 to January 2, 2015, June 27 to July 9, 2014, and June 12 to

July 12, 2015.

6. Communities without at least 20 incidents in all of 2014 were not used when comparing

gunfire rates.

7. Incidents were counted only after formal qualification and operational use of ShotSpotter

data by the client agency began, even if gunfire or other incidents were detectedpreviously. Incidents were counted as gunfire if t hey were classified as Single Gunshot,Multiple Gunshot, or Possible Gunfire by SST-certified review p ersonnel. All other

incident types (fireworks, firecrackers, explosions unrelated to gunfire, transformerexplosions, thunder, lightning, helicopters, etc.) were excluded from all statistics presentedin this report. Gunfire incidents not reviewed by SST-certified review personnel are alsoexcluded.

ShotSpotter data does not remain static, as information and adjustments are often madeseveral days or weeks after initial detection (as forensic evidence is analyzed, cases areinvestigated, etc.). This report takes into account the most accurate and recently-availableinformation.

8. Square mileage is measured on the basis of contractual coverage area. For each sucharea, the geographic area is defined as a polygon surrounding each coverage area. If the

polygon coordinates are not available, the contracted area is used. In some cases, smallareas within these coverage areas are intentionally excluded when gunfire is regularlyexpected in those specific locations (e.g. a legal outdoor shooting range or police practicerange). In those cases, gunfire which takes place in those locations outside of authorized

areas is still included in the tallies, but gunfire which takes place during permitted(expected) periods is not included.

9. When the Friday, Saturday and Sunday gunfire totals are compared to the rest of the week, a day is defined as starting at 06:00:00 local time and extending to 05:59:59 thenext morning. For example, early 02:05 Sunday morning is counted as Saturday night.

10. Individual hours of the week and days of the week were calculated on a local time basis.

Appendix


18/18

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ShotSpotter

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[email protected]

www.ShotSpotter.com/2015NGI

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