National Freight Demand Study 2014 Prepared by Gayelene Wright, Maritime and Freight

The Study’s approach

► Commodity based estimate of the freight task

► Uses government and industry data

► 170 interviews with people in industry

► Forecasts based on industry data and published

government forecasts

A lot has changed since the first study in 2008

Powerpoint presentation - 2014

global

financial crisis

growth of the

services

sector

climatic

events

changes in

international

shipping

patterns

online

shopping

new transport

policies

The current freight task is substantial

236m

tonnes

In both tonnes and tonne-kilometres

26.3b

tonne-km

Currently the growth area is rail...

…but roads remain our

main mode for moving

freight

Modal Shares tonne-kilometres

Rail 8%

Coastal Shipping -10%

Road -2%

Percentage growth 2006 - 2012 tonne-kilometres

...but roads remain our

main mode for moving

freight

Rail, 15%

Coastal Shipping,

15%

Road, 70%

Rail, 16%

Coastal Shipping,

14% Road, 70%

2006 2012

The freight task is set to rise significantly by 2042

373m tonnes

236m tonnes

The freight forecast by broad commodity group

60%

28% 33%

62%

29%

102%

54%

70%

54% 58%

Milk and dairy Logs and timber products

Livestock, meat and wool

Oter agriculture and fish

Petroleum and coal

Building material, fertiliser and

other minterals

Manufactured and retail goods,

steel and aluminium

Waste General freight Total

percentage growth between 2012 and 2042

The predicted growth is lower than the 2008 forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2008 forecast

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

2008 2042

Freight Forecast from 2008 and 2014 tonnes

2012 2031

74%

increase

from

2008

58%

increase

from

2012

2014 forecast

Growth will be uneven across the country

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100

Auckland

Canterbury

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

Northland

Southland

Manawatu

Hawke’s Bay

Otago

Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough

Wellington

Taranaki

West Coast

Gisborne

20 40 60 80 100

Ori

gin

Freight Movements 2012 and 2042 million tonnes

De

stinatio

n

2012

2042

0

The study is available at

www.transport.govt.nz/research/nationalfreightdemandsstudy