National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY...

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National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY

DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, JUNE 2017

Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation

Long rains Planting/Weeding High calving Rate Milk yields Increase

Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept)

Short rains Planting/weeding

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

JUNE EW PHASE

Early Warning(EW) Phase Classification

Livelihood Zone Stage Trend

Marginal Mixed farming Alarm Deteriorating

Livestock/Ranching Alarm Deteriorating

Cash Cropping/Dairy Alarm Deteriorating

Food Cropping Alert Deteriorating

COUNTY Alarm Deteriorating

Biophysical Indicators Value Normal

Average Rainfall (mm) 22.6 50-90

VCI-3month 25.11 35-50

Production indicators Value Normal

Livestock Migration Pattern No Migration No migration

Livestock Body Conditions 4-5 6-8

Milk Production ltr/hh/day 4.5 4.8

Crop condition Minimal harvesting

green grams,

cowpeas and green

maize,

Dry maize harvesting

and significant

harvesting of green

grams and cow peas

Access Indicators Value Normal

Terms of Trade (ToT) 62.9 >67

Milk Consumption (%

range)

1.1 >1.4

Average Water Distance for

Households (Km)

4.8 ≤ 1.7

Average Grazing-Water

point Distance (Km)

1.5 ≤ 3.3

Utilization indicators Value Normal

MUAC (%) 5.9 ≤ 6.8

Coping Strategy Index 15.06 <13.67

Drought situation and phase classification

Biophysical Indicators (Environmental indicators)

Generally the month of June recorded significant drop in the amount of rainfall recorded.

State of water sources in the county during the month under review was 4 (declining)-below normal at this time of the year.

On average pasture and browse condition recorded some improvement.

On average, the county 3-month VCI for June was 25.11, indicating moderate vegetation deficit with Kilifi South recording normal vegetation deficit.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators

Sixty-four percent recorded good livestock body condition.

Milk production remained low as compared to the long term mean. Access indicators

Average return distance from water sources continued to decrease both for households and livestock use.

Maize pieces recorded a decrease in average price per kg and beans’ average price remained high and stable.

The terms of trade improved for the livestock keepers with decreased in maize prices.

Utilization indicators

Households’ food consumption recorded minimal improvement.

Households continued to employ different coping strategies to address food shortage.

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1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS

1.1 Rainfall Performance

1.2 Onset

The onset of the March-May 2017 long-rains was delayed, much rains were received in May and

were evenly distributed.

1.2 Amount and Spatial Distribution

Figure 1a: Average amount of rainfall recorded in Kilifi County

The month of June recorded significant decrease in amount of rainfall compared to the previous

month.

The average amount of rainfall recorded in June is lower compared to the same month last year.

The amount recorded was significantly lower by 67% compared to the long term mean at this

time of the year.

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Figure 1b: Kilifi County rainfall distribution and NDVI condition

Figure 1b shows rainfall and NDVI condition for June compared to Long term mean.

The amounts of rainfall received in June were below the long term mean with significant drop

from May dekad three to June dekad one.

The NDVI indicates situation returning to normal from May dekad three.

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2.0 IMPACT ON VEGETATION AND WATER

2.1 Vegetation Condition

2.1.1 Vegetation Condition Index [VCI]

The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) compares the current NDVI to the range of values observed in the

same period in previous years.

VCI-3month

As at 31st May 2017

VCI-3month

As at 26th June 2017

KILIFI

County 10.59 25.11

Ganze 9.58 30.68

Kaloleni 2.31 26.54

Magarini 11.25 20.83

Malindi 9.27 25.69

Kilifi-North 10.41 29.26

Rabai 11.22 29.82 Kilifi-South 23.58 43.43

Figure 2a: Three month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values for Kilifi County [Source: Boku University -Austria]

Most areas in the county recorded moderate vegetation deficit with only Kilifi South sub

county recording normal vegetation deficit.

Figure 2b: Three month vegetation Condition Index (VCI) matrix and chart for Kilifi County (source: Boku

University-Austria)

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The county on average recorded moderate vegetation deficit compared to the long term

mean at this time of the year.

Figure 2c: Ganze Sub-County 3-Month Vegetation condition Indices Matrices

Ganze Sub County recorded 3-mounth moderate vegetation deficit same condition like

June 2016 but below the long term mean at this time of the year.

Figure 2d: Kilifi South Sub County 3-month Vegetation Condition Indices Matrices

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Kilifi South Sub County recorded Normal vegetation deficit following the rains in May

and continued showers in June. Kilifi South Is one of the sub counties which during the

season received significant amount.

Figure2d1: Kilifi County Time Series Analysis for 3-month Vegetation Condition Indices [source: Boku

University –Austria]

June 3-month VCI recorded moderate vegetation deficit following significant rains recorded in

May 2017.

2.1.2 Pasture

Figure 3a: Kilifi County Pasture Condition

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Pasture condition across the county recorded significant improvement with 70.6%

recording good condition.

Pasture condition in all livelihood zones improved as it ranged between fair and good.

Current pasture condition is below normal at this time of the year.

2.1.3 Browse

Figure 3b: Kilifi County Browse Condition

In June, browse condition ranged between fair and good across the county.

The current condition is due some rains recorded during the season.

The browse condition in the County was below normal at this time of the year.

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2.2 Water Resources

2.2.1 Sources

Figure 4: water sources for households in Kilifi County.

The main water sources for domestic and livestock use across all livelihood zones in the

month of June were pipeline, pans/dams, rivers, shallow wells, natural ponds and

boreholes.

Pipeline use recorded the highest number of households followed by pans and dams.

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2.2.2 Household water access and utilization

Figure 5: Households average return distance to water points.

The average distance from water sources for households continued recording a

decrease compared to previous month but still high compared to long term mean.

The decrease in average distance can be attributed to some recharge of water pans and

dams following enhanced rains recorded in month of May.

On average the 20 litter jerrycan of water was costing Kshs.15

Average return distance to water point for households during the month was

significantly higher compared to long term mean.

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2.2.3 Livestock access to water

Figure 6: Average livestock return distance to water point from grazing area.

Average distance to water sources continued to record significant drop in June

compared to the previous month.

The decrease in average distance can be attributed to improved pasture quality and

quantity and recharge of surface water sources.

The average return distance to grazing areas during the month was below the long term

mean at this time of the year.

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PRODUCTION INDICATORS

3.0 Livestock Production

3.1.1 Livestock body condition

Figure 7: Livestock body condition Kilifi County

Significant percentage (64.7) recorded good livestock body condition with only 5.9

percent recording poor condition.

Body condition for goats and sheep was good across all livelihood zones occassioned by

availabilty of pasture and browse following some rains and showers across the County.

3.1.2 Livestock disease

Foot & Mouth, CCPP and Newcastle was reorded in Ganze Sub County as vaccination

continued against CCPP, anthrax, Rift Valley Fever and deworming.

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3.1.3 Milk production

On average milk production remained slightly below the long term mean.

In June milk production recorded some increase compared to previous month.

Milk production is expected to increase as livestock body condition continued to record

positive improvement and decrease to water points declined significantly.

3.2 RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION 3.2.1 Stage and condition of food crops

In Kilifi North and South and some parts of Kaloleni maize crop is at grain filling stage while areas of Bamba and Magarini it is at tussling stage.

Maize crop is at an average knee-high in marginal and food cropping zones and in good condition as weeding continued.

Larger part of the county, late planted green grams and cowpeas still in good condition 3.2.2. Crop Harvest

Minimal harvesting of green maize was recorded in Kilifi North and South.

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Minimal harvesting of green grams and cowpeas in Kaloleni, Kilifi North and South was recorded too.

4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1. LIVESTOCK MARKET 4.1.1 Cattle prices

Figure 7: Average cattle price (4 year bull/steer) in major livestock markets in Kilifi County.

Average cattle price in month of June recorded a decrease of 2.56 percent compared to

the previous month.

The decrease can be attributed to increased supply in the market as they recorded good

body condition in search for cash for household food purchase whose prices remained

high.

The average price recorded in the month of June was higher than the long term mean at

this time of the year.

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4.1.2 Goat prices.

Figure 8: Average goat price (3 year old) at market level in Kilifi County.

The average market price of a 3 year medium sized goat decreased significantly by 16.8% as compared to the previous month and this may be attributed to increases in supply in the market.

The highest average goat prices were recorded in the marginal mixed and food cropping zone while the lowest were recorded in the Livestock ranching zone.

The average price recorded in the current month was higher than the long term mean at this time of the year.

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4.2 Crop prices 4.2.1 Maize

Figure 9: Average maize price in Kilifi County.

The average price per kilogram of maize recorded a decrease as more households moved in

search for sifted maize meal and locally milled maize.

The average price/kg expected to remain low as long rains crop matured and ready for harvest

in mid-July.

The highest average maize price was recorded in the livestock farming/mixed farming of Bamba

and Kakuyuni respectively at an average of Ksh65/kg and lowest in food cropping zone of

Mwarakaya at an average of Ksh50/kg.

The average price recorded in June was higher compared to long term mean at this time of the

year.

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4.2.2 Beans

Figure 10: Average beans price in Kilifi County.

Average beans’ price per kilogram remained significantly high as compared to the long

term mean.

Average beans price per kilogram remained stable compared to the previous month.

The livestock farming zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh68 per kilogram

while the mixed farming zone posted significantly the lowest price of Ksh50 per

kilogram.

Average price expected to remain high till the 2017 long rains harvest when farmers will

harvest green grams and cow peas

The average price recorded in June was higher than the long term mean at this time of

the year.

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4.3 TERMS OF TRADE

The terms of trade determines the purchasing power of livestock (goat) sellers.

Figure 11: Terms of trade for Kilifi County.

The terms of trade slightly improved in the month of June as compared to previous

month.

There was variation across livelihood zones in Term of Trade due to varying average

price of maize and body condition of goats.

The terms of trade for June were better compared to the long term mean at this time of

the year.

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5.0 NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION

Figure 12: Milk Consumption chart

Milk consumption continued recording a decrease as production too remained below

normal at this time of the year.

Milk consumption in the month of June remained stable as compared to previous

month.

The consumption is expected to increase as livestock body condition continued

recording an improvement.

Milk price in the market increased attracting lower number of customers.

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5.2 Health and Nutrition Status 5.2.1 Mid upper arm circumstance (MUAC)

The number of children under five years at risk of malnutrition recorded an increase of 0.7% in the month of June compared to the previous month.

The increase can be attributed to household food insecurity following delayed harvest of the long rains crop, increased food prices and poor dietary diversity.

Also following nurses strike the supplementary feeding programme has been interrupted at the health facilities which do not have nutritionists.

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5.2.2 Food Consumption Score.

Figure 14: Food Consumption Score

Households’ food consumption significantly improved compared to previous month and

this may be attributed to harvesting of green maize, vegetables and availability of locally

milled maize.

Livestock farming and food cropping zone recorded high number of households under

poor food consumption as the zone recorded poor rains and increased food price due to

its distance from main centers.

Significant number of households across all livelihood zones were under acceptable

food consumption in June as compared to the previous month but it was yet to be

reflected on the nutritional status of the under-fives.

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5.3 COPING STARTEGIES

5.3.1 Coping Strategy Index

Figure 13: Coping Strategy Index for Kilifi County

Household food insecurity continued to reduce as long rains harvest started. Most

employed coping strategies among households were; Spent savings

Sold household assets

Reduced quantity of food consumed by adults to ensure children get enough to eat

Reduction in number and meal rations per day.

Opting for less preferred or cheaper meals.

Households expected to continue employing different coping strategies till significant

harvest is recorded to boost household food security.

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6.0 CURRENT ONGOING INTERVENTION MEASURES

6.1 Food- aid

Support to ECD education with school meals (rice, pulses and oil), 93schools in Ganze and Kaloleni sub counties which were most hit with drought by Plan International.

Supplementary/ therapeutic feeding program in health facilities across the county by County Department of Health, UNICEF, IMC.

6.2 Non-food aid Social- Protection Cash transfers to the elderly, orphaned and vulnerable children, people with severe disability by

National government across the county.

Cash transfer by the County Government to 1750 households across the 35wards.

Cash transfers to 1300 vulnerable households at rate of Kshs2000 per month in Kaloleni Sub County most hit Sub County by 2016/17 drought by Kenya Red Cross Society.

Cash for Asset by GoK/ WFP, World Vision, Kenya Red Cross Society and NDMA in Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai and Magarini Sub Counties to 12,200No.of vulnerable households.

Unconditional cash transfer by National Government in collaboration with WFP to 33, 000 households in the whole county.

Agriculture Sector Support to irrigation farming along river Sabaki in Magarini and Malindi sub counties by the

county government through provision of farm inputs by agriculture department.

Community sensitization on conservational Agriculture by County Department of Agriculture and FAO.

Livestock Sector Vaccination against CCPP, anthrax, Rift Valley Fever and deworming across the county by

Veterinary department.

Livestock feed distribution to 40 households in Kaloleni Sub County under Early Warning Early Response pilot project by FAO.

Health Sector Community capacity building on appropriate infant and young child feeding practices

(mother-to-mother support groups) by county department of Health, Plan International, International Medical Corps and World Vision.

Promotion of maternal and child health in the county by Share progamme by International Medical Corps) in collaboration with the county department of health in Ganze sub county which continued recording high cases of malnutrition.

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7.0 EMERGING ISSUES

None

7.1 Food Security Prognosis

Food insecurity to record some improvement as long rains crop harvest started.

Following the improvement of livestock body condition, milk production expected to increase thus increased consumption leading to improved nutrition.

Food prices expected to decrease significantly as long rains harvest started though on small scale.

7.2 INDICATORS TO BE MONITORED

2017 Long rains harvest

Water situation in the county

Community resilience to drought

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8 RECOMMENDATIONS

Water sector

Construction of mega dam for water harvesting in Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini which underserved by pipeline and hardly hit by drought due water scarcity for household and livestock –County Government, NDMA

Pipeline extension Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini sub counties which are hard hit by drought by water department.

Agriculture Sector

Promotion of small-scale irrigation on high value crops in order to contribute to household incomes and diversified household diet by Agriculture sector.

Farmers’ sensitization on crop insurance to ensure that farmers don’t suffer total loss due unreliable season across the county by Agriculture sector.

Livestock Sector

Livestock feed supplementation to support the livestock whose body condition had deteriorated significantly due to lack of pasture and water stress in Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini sub counties by livestock sector, NDMA, FAO.

Diversification on livestock keeping; more investment on goat, bee-keeping and local chicken following lessons learnt from recent drought in Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties by Livestock sector, FAO

Community sensitization on early livestock off take/disposal, formation of cooperative and feed conservation to minimize losses in case of a disaster by livestock sector, NDMA, FAO.

Promote Pasture and fodder planting along river Sabaki to reduce Livestock drought stress by livestock sector, NDMA

Vaccination against CCPP and NCD across the county following significant losses by Veterinary department, NDMA.

Health Sector

Support for malnourished children under five years in areas recording high cases of children at risk of malnutrition in Kaloleni, Ganze and Magarini sub counties.

Out scale mass screening to capture cases (under-fives, pregnant and lactating women) at risk of malnutrition or already malnourished for timely intervention by department of health, NDMA, IMC, UNICEF.

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Education Sector

Upscale the number of schools under Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP) to boost retention in Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini and Ganze sub counties by Ministry of Education, Plan international

Support schools with installation of water harvesting structures for water harvesting to reduce water stress during drought Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini and Ganze sub counties by Ministry of Education, Plan international and World Vision.

Support to schools with food-for-fees programme in Kaloleni, Magarini and Ganze sub counties by the Ministry of Education, Kilifi County Government and NDMA

Multi-Sectoral

Frequent rapid assessment to monitor drought situation, household food security for timely and appropriate interventions.

Upscale cash transfer beneficiaries across the county

Significant investment on attitude change towards adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Smart Agriculture

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