National Climate and Water Briefing - Bureau of Meteorology · 28–30 January 2016 . Tasmania's...

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 29 February 2016

National Climate and Water Briefing Tamar River, Tasmania


Welcome

Dr Andre Zerger Manager, Environmental Information Services


Climate conditions and outlook

Robyn Duell Senior Climatologist, Climate Prediction Group Hail caught in bird-nets near Canberra airport

Photo: Anthea Kerrison, 30 January 2016


Recent conditions • Recent conditions • Climate influences

• Temperature and rainfall outlooks


Maximum temperature deciles Minimum temperature deciles

Maximum temperature • Highest on record for tropical north • 7th warmest on record for Tasmania Minimum temperature • Warmer than usual nights • 3rd warmest on record for Tasmania

Temperatures

January 2016


• Four consecutive days above 40 °C for Perth

• On 11 February, 9 of 10 hottest locations on the planet were in Western Australia

• Tasmania likely to have warmest summer on record

• Eastern Australia heatwave

Temperatures

February 2016


• January 2016—warmest month on record, of any month

• 2015—warmest year on record

• 9 of 10 warmest months on record occurred in the last 12 months

Global temperature

Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles January 2016 Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies January


Rainfall deciles January 2016

Rainfall deciles (to-date) February 2016

Rainfall

Summer December 2015 – February 2016

Rainfall deciles December 2015


El Niño and the northern wet season

• Australia missed a monsoon burst in February

• Low wet season rainfall typical during El Niño

• Tropical cyclone activity below average

http://earth.nullschool.net/


El Niño and the northern wet season

http://earth.nullschool.net/

• Australia missed a monsoon burst in February

• Low wet season rainfall typical during El Niño

• Tropical cyclone activity below average


• Hottest and driest spring on record

• Likely warmest summer on record

• Leading to record fires

• Record rain event end of January

3-day rainfall totals 28–30 January 2016

Tasmania's summer

Rainfall deciles Spring 2015

Mean temperature deciles Spring 2015

Luncheon Hill weather station 22 January 2016

400 300

200

150

100

50

25

15

10

5

1

0

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiUhLDA-ozLAhXKEpQKHd_tD_QQjRwIBw&url=http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-29/more-rain-expected-in-tasmanian-flash-flooding-zones/7123014&psig=AFQjCNHQEqUzlkqHntuzteThTypzI9eW0Q&ust=1456284993050538


Climate influences • Recent conditions

• Climate influences • Temperature and rainfall outlooks


• Tropical Pacific Ocean is cooling, but remains above El Niño thresholds

• Other El Niño indicators also show decline

• Record warm Indian Ocean

• Ocean has warmed around Australia

El Niño and the Indian Ocean

Sea surface temperature anomalies, week ending 21 February 2016

-4 -3 -2 -1 -0.5 0.5 1 2 3 4 °C


Beyond El Niño

-2.4

-1.6

-0.8

0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecNIN

O3.

4 °C

Model forecasts and prior strong El Niño events

observedBoMCanSIPSECMWFJMAMETEONASANOAAUKMO97-9882-83

NOW Sea surface temperature anomalies,

week ending 21 February 2016


• Papua New Guinea has seen drought, frost followed by floods and landslides

• Severe drought threat in South Pacific

• UN warns of global food crisis in 2016

El Niño declines, impacts continue

Failed crops in Papua New Guinea due to frost, drought and recent flooding. Photo: ABC


Climate outlooks • Recent conditions

• Climate influences

• Temperature and rainfall outlooks


Rainfall outlook

Autumn 2016

Chance of exceeding median rainfall March 2016

Chance of exceeding median rainfall April 2016

Chance of exceeding median rainfall March–May 2016


Temperature outlook

Autumn 2016

Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature


In summary

• El Niño decline continues, but still strong enough to affect global climate

• Northern Australia experiencing drier and warmer than usual monsoon season

• Indian Ocean is exceptionally warm

• Autumn rainfall outlook: drier than normal likely in the north, wetter than normal likely in the south

• Autumn temperature outlook: warmer than normal days and nights


Thank you

Questions?

Robyn Duell Senior Climatologist, Climate Prediction Group


Hydrologic conditions and outlook

Dr Robert Pipunic Hydrologist, Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

Merri Creek, Melbourne (Photo: Merryn Coutts)



• Recent hydrologic conditions • Water storages

• Streamflow outlook


Recent conditions

January 2016

Rainfall deciles Effective rainfall


Recent conditions

January 2016

Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100 cm) Change in total lower-layer soil moisture 1–31 January 2016


Soil moisture

McArthur River, Northern Territory

January 2009 – January 2016

Lower-layer soil moisture (10–100 cm)

McArthur River


• High flow at 58 locations

• Near median flow at 67 locations

• Low flow at 106 locations

Observed streamflow

January 2016


Cumulative flows

McArthur River, Northern Territory

McArthur River


Monthly soil moisture changes Tasmania

September 2015 – January 2016

Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016


Soil moisture

Hellyer River, Tasmania January 2009 – January 2016


Hellyer River



• Recent hydrologic conditions

• Water storages • Streamflow outlook


Water storage levels

As at 23 February 2016


Rainfall and streamflow response

River Murray at Biggara


Boundary between median and high tercile

Boundary between low and median tercile


Rainfall and streamflow response:

soil moisture






• Recent hydrologic conditions

• Water storages

• Streamflow outlook


• High flow at 69 locations

• Near median flow at 69 locations

• Low flow at 103 locations

• Moderate to high model skill—highest in southern mainland

Forecast skill Most likely forecast outcome

Seasonal streamflow forecast

February – April 2016


Summary • Very low January rainfall in northern Australia, but high soil moisture persisting

• Tasmania still dry—low storages and soil moisture

• Low streamflows dominated in January

• Low streamflows most likely across Australia for February to April, but higher flows more likely in south


Thank you

Questions?

Robert Pipunic Hydrologist, Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting


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