National Climate and Water Briefing - bom.gov.au › water › newEvents › presentations ›...

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 2 March 2015

National Climate and Water Briefing


Welcome

Mr Perry Wiles

Manager Climate Liaison Services


Climate conditions and

outlook

Dr David Jones

Manager Climate Monitoring and Prediction Services


Climate

conditions and

outlook

• Recent conditions

• Current and forecast state of key climate drivers

• Rainfall and temperature outlooks


• Strong rainfall signal

• Temperatures

- Maximum 0.4 °C below average

- Minimum 0.4 °C above average

- Mean 0.02 °C above average

• No State or Territory in top or bottom ten

Maximum temperature deciles January 2015 Minimum temperature deciles January 2015

Temperatures

January 2015


Summer–destined to

be above average

(again)

Summer to date temperature anomalies (to 23 February)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Te

mp

era

ture

an

om

ali

es

(°C

)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2014 2015

Australian daily mean temperature anomalies 2014–15

6°C

5°C

4°C

3°C

2°C

1°C

0°C

-1°C

-2°C

-3°C

-4°C

-5°C

-6°C


Maximum temperature anomalies 8–19 February 2015

Photo: Department of Fire and Emergency Services (WA)

Meanwhile in

Western Australia…

Image: Jeff Schmaltz/NASA,LANCE/EOSDIS

6°C

5°C

4°C

3°C

2°C

1°C

0°C

-1°C

-2°C

-3°C

-4°C

-5°C

-6°C


January

• Australia: 15th highest

• Northern Territory: 4th highest

• South Australia: 8th highest

November–January

• Australia: 15th highest

• Northern Territory: 5th highest

Rainfall deciles January 2015 Rainfall deciles, November 2014 – January 2015

Rainfall


• January rains eased some short-term

deficiencies in parts of south

• Little impact on longer-term

deficiencies

• Rainfall from tropical cyclone Marcia

unlikely to impact

7 months

July 2014 – January 2015

28 months

October 2012 – January 2015

Rainfall deficiencies

6 months

July 2014 – December 2014

27 months

October 2012 – December 2014

Summer to date rainfall deciles (left)

and February to date (right) – Feb rain

unlikely to impact on long-term

deficiencies in Qld


Tropical cyclones Lam and Marcia from satellite and radar

imagery February 2015

Tropical cyclones

Lam and Marcia

Percentage of normal February rainfall

(to 24 February 2015)


• January 2015 (+0.65°C), second

warmest globally behind 2007

• Severe drought:

- Western US and Texas (water

supply and wildfire concerns)

- Brazil (São Paulo at risk of running

out of water)

• Record snowfalls in northeast United

States, but record warmth (including

wildfires and lack of snow) in western

United States

January global temperature percentiles

International

Severe drought persists in western United States


Climate

conditions and

outlook





Australian winter rainfall regime April–August rainfall deciles for past 10 years

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

190

0

190

4

190

8

191

2

191

6

192

0

192

4

192

8

193

2

193

6

194

0

194

4

194

8

195

2

195

6

196

0

196

4

196

8

197

2

197

6

198

0

198

4

198

8

199

2

199

6

200

0

200

4

200

8

201

2

Rain

fall

an

om

aly

(m

m)

Australia south coast rainfall anomalies (April–August)

Autumn–winter

drying pattern


Atmospheric drivers

of autumn–winter

drying

Southern Australia located at confluence of many

large-scale climatic drivers

Strength of highs (subtropical ridge)

with global temperature

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Pre

ssure

anom

aly

(hP

a)

Tem

pera

ture

anom

aly

(°

C)

Annual subtropical ridge intensity

Global annual temperature


El Niño–Southern

Oscillation

Sea surface temperatures

NINO3.4 for January: +0.5 | Latest weekly value: +0.4

January 2015

Sub-surface Pacific Ocean temperatures

November

December

January

February


NINO3.4 forecasts from eight international climate models

El Niño–Southern

Oscillation

Outlook


Neutral conditions most likely into autumn

• Central tropical Pacific Ocean neutral, but some warmth

remains

• Southern Oscillation Index has weakened

• Models indicate El Niño potential by spring 2015

Chance of El Niño


Climate

conditions and

outlook





Temperature outlook

March–May 2015

Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature

Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature


Rainfall outlook

March–May 2015

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

March–May


March


April


In summary

• ENSO currently neutral; models suggest chance of renewed heating in tropical Pacific Ocean leading into winter

• Tropical cyclone rainfall largely confined to coastal areas of Queensland and the Top End

• Neutral to wet outlook for autumn; increased chance of rain in March for southern Queensland

• A warm autumn, particularly in southeast


Thank you

Questions?


Hydrologic conditions

and outlook

Dr Paul Feikema,

Manager, Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Googong Reservoir, NSW (Julien Lerat) Florence Falls, NT (Paul Feikema) Coliban River at Tylden (Paul Feikema)



and outlook

• Recent hydrologic conditions

• Water storages and groundwater

• Streamflow outlook


Rainfall Actual evapotranspiration Evaporative efficiency

Recent conditions

January 2015


January 2014 January 2015

Evaporative

efficiency

• Water amount that evaporated relative to

amount that could have evaporated

• Most rainfall transpires or evaporates


Change over one month Change over 12 months January 2015

Lower soil moisture

January 2015


Observed streamflow

January 2015

• Low flows observed at 48 locations

• Near median flows at 33 locations

• High flows at 31 locations


Observed streamflow

Observed streamflow terciles, 2011–2015



and outlook





Water storage levels

Change from last year

As at 20 February 2015


Groundwater

Perth

Urban water supply, National Water Account 2014

• Large part of urban water supply

• Dependence being actively reduced

• Three main aquifers

• Gnangara Mound key extraction area

National Water Account 2014


Groundwater

level trends

• Five year trend stable or falling

• Falling across Gnangara Mound

• Key resource in a drying climate

Trend in groundwater levels, 2009-2014


Groundwater

level trends

Trend in groundwater levels, 2009-2014 Longer-term trend in groundwater levels



and outlook





Forecast skill

Most likely streamflow outcome

Seasonal streamflow

forecast

February–April 2015

• Low flows more likely at 45 locations

• Near median flows at 37 locations

• High flows forecast at 30 locations

• Generally low to moderate forecast skill


In summary

• Increase in lower soil moisture across northern Australia

• Observed streamflow returned to more median flows

• Increase in water storage levels along coastal areas in the north and east

• February–April forecast indicates a return to more median conditions


Thank you

Questions?


Next briefing

26 March 2015

National Climate and Water Briefing - bom.gov.au › water › newEvents › presentations ›...

Documents

Transcript of National Climate and Water Briefing - bom.gov.au › water › newEvents › presentations ›...