National Center for Climatology (Climatological Research Institute)

• ECO-Regional Center for Risk Management of Natural Disasters (ECO-RCRM)

• Mashad Regional Climate Center(MCC-in development)

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During the recent decades, we have been witnessing disasters such as heavy floods, unexpected warm or cold weathers, repeated droughts, plant blights, storms and hails. This has put forth the issue of “climate change”. As a matter of fact, climate change has been a challenge facing humans in this century. The social sections affected by this change are agriculture, water resources, health, environment etc., which should be recognized by the governments. Also, required plans should be considered to reduce these effects.

The National Center for Climatology (Climatological Research Institute) was established in 1995 following the suggestion of the World Meteorological Organization in order to meet the needs of applied researches of the country in the fields of climatology, climate change, its effects, adaptation techniques, climate disasters, as well as updating and promoting seasonal forecasts and drought warnings. This center aims to develop international cooperation related to climate in order to strengthen our country's position at international levels and this is in alignment with our country's long-term outlook.

This center has received the first place in efficiency in West Asia and Middle East. Thanks to its capability, this center has received the authority and the honor of hosting the World Meteorological Organization and Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) regarding climate and disaster risk management.

This center consists of various sections. The research section includes three groups of applied climatology, weather and climate disasters, and climate change. Another section is the operation one which includes climatic observatory sections, climate forecasts, and adaptability to climate change, ECO-RCRM, and MCC.

Dr. Ebrahim Fattahi

Director General of I. R. of Iran

National Center for Climatology / MCC

and ECO-RCRM /

Preface

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Table of Contents 1. History 3

2. Organization 4

3. Research activities 5

3.1 Applied Climatology 5

3.2 Atmospheric and Climatic Disasters 8

3.3 Climate change 11

3.4 Publications 17

4. Educational Activities 18

5. Seasonal Forecast Program 19

6. Drought Outlook and Early-warning System (DOES) 21

7. ECO Regional Center for Risk Management of Natural Disaster (ECO- RCRM)

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8. Some Impacts of climate change in future 26

9. Future Programs 27

10. Annex 1: IRIMO and ASMERC in Brief 28

11. Russian abstract 30

• History

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1995 Establishment of the National Center for Climatology (NCC),

2000 The Council of Higher Education approved the establishment of the climatological Research Institute (CRI),

2002 Preparing a report on the effects of global warming on Iran. According to this report, along with the annual precipitation decrease in our country, this precipitation tends to be in form of heavy rains which increases the probability of floods. Also, autumn rains begin with delay.

2004 Issuance of the first seasonal temperature and precipitation prediction for the whole country,

2006 Preparing the first multi-model weighting seasonal forecast over Iran,

2007 Establishment of ECO-Regional Center for Risk Management of National Disasters (ECO-RCRM) in Mashad, Starting the pilot phase of Mashad regional Climate Center (MCC),

2008 The Regional Association II (Asia) approved the establishment of Mashad Climate Center in West Asia with the aim of providing seasonal forecasts, drought warnings, and climate change assessments in the region,

2009 Integration of National Center for Climatology and Climatological Research Institute to establish the National Climate Center (Climatological Research Institute) in Mashad including an action and a research section,

2010 Participation in preparing the Second National Communication to UNFCC related to the effects of global warming on climate change in Iran and the actions taken by the I.R. of Iran to mitigate its effects,

2012 Acknowledgment of the RA II Regional Association from activities of Mashhad Climate Center for providing seasonal forecasts and drought monitoring and early warnings over West Asia,

2012 The first international workshop on Climate Modeling and Natural Disasters in ECO Region (25-27 July 2012) ,

2012 Holding the international workshops on Drought and Flood early warning systems, to be held in mashhad, ECO-RCRM.

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Fig. 1. Organization chart of I. R. of Iran National Climate Center (Climatological Research Institute)

http://www.cri.ac.ir Home page (Persian)

http://www.cri.ac.ir/english Home Page (English)

http://www.eco-rcrm.ir Home page (ECO-RCRM)

mashadmcc@gmail.com E-Mail

Applied Climatology Division

Climatology Research Group of

Atmospheric and Climatic

Disasters

Applied Climatology Research Division

Climate Change Division

Regional Climate Center

(MCC)

Eco Regional Center for Risk Management

of Natural Disasters

Climate and Adaptation

Group

Forecasting and Climate

Modeling Group

Database, Climate

Monitoring and

Research Services

I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization

Director General of National Climate Center (Climatological Research Institute)

Administrative and Financial Affairs

Deputy of Research Deputy of Technical Information

Council of Board of Trustees

• Organization

• Research Activities

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Applied climatology division aims to meet some of the applied research requirements of

the IRIMO and other governmental and private sectors which are related to agriculture, water resources, air pollution, urban climate and architecture, cloud seeding, . . .

Some of the main projects of the applied climatology division are as follows:

• Feasibility Study of Road Climate Prediction and Zoning of Iran

Transportation is of main importance in the economy of each country. In our country, because of trait population, Extensive, producing centers, residential outlying areas, inter-regional disconnections, special qualifications of the socioeconomic situation, transportation development as a main part of infrastructure, is more effective for the economy and economic development. In each country, transportation policy aims to generate the most useful and the safest transportation system with the minimum expense.

Weather and climate are the most important environmental factors which affect the road Surface. Every year, destructive climatic events such as snow, ice, fog, flood, thunderstorm, dust, and etc. cause loss of life and property. In this sense, predicting these events can help reduce the traffic and the number of losses caused by car accidents.

Fig. 2. Road risk projection over Iran using meteorological elements for Januray (right) and priority zoning of the roads by considering meteorological elements (left).

So, the study of climate is effective on increasing the efficiency of modern roads and buildings.

In this study, we have tried to recognize weather and climate which are effective on road transportation and determine climate threshold spatial and temporal analyses of black point and finally present exact recommendations to use executive managers and future Programmers.

The main purposes of this study are as follows:

Applied Climatology Division

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1. Study of relationship between climatic parameters and road accidents 2. Determination of hazardous threshold for each Effective Climatic Parameter 3. Zoning of Hazardous Regions 4. Feasibility study of Effective Climatic Parameters on road transportation 5. Study of the requirements for development of Road Weather Network

• Determination of the Appropriate Type and Number of Road Weather

Sensors according to Prevailing Climate Conditions in Iran

Road transportation depends on atmospheric conditions. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions may damage the soil of levees and make the road unused. In addition, adverse weather conditions make travel dangerous for humans and impose financial risks on travelers and those who use the roads. A number of factors measured in road weather stations, such as destruction of atmospheric phenomena, effective elements in reduced visibility, analysis of rainfalls, showers, snow and avalanches, dust storms, frost, freezing, and etc.

The purpose of this project is to identify the different climatic conditions over I.R. of Iran in order to detect the most suitable meteorological road sensors for each region according to its climate. The results of this survey would be useful for the road transportation management and appropriate use of sensors according to climate zones.

• Evaluation and Prediction of Pollutants Dispersion from Mashad

Recycling Industrial Section to Urban Areas, Affected by Weather Conditions

This project aims to assess and forecast the atmospheric parameters and their influence on the spread of contamination in Mashhad in order to reduce dispersion of the pollutants. In this regard, an automatic weather station with a local network has been installed to monitor and forecast the atmospheric variables around the station. Regional numerical model of WRF with air-pollution model of TAPM have been used for forecasting the meteorological and air pollution variable for the days ahead.

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Fig. 3. Automatic weather station which was installed to record the meteorological variables around the station.

The model outputs indicate that the Southerly wind after passing through the pollution source area, spreads toward the city's residential areas. Of course, it channelizes into two directions of Northeast and Northwest. Portion of eastern wind after passing through the pollution area can be directed toward the north influenced by local factors such as roughness. Results indicate the significant and direct impact of Southerly wind on the spread of pollution toward the urban areas.

Fig. 4. A sample outputs of a Weather Research and Forecast model of WRF (left) and air pollution model of TAPM

(right).

According to probability of pollution spreading to urban areas, a day can be divided into three periods:

1- Night Period (8 pm to 7 am): This period has the most probability of spreading pollution toward the city, in this regard, recycling activities are not recommended.

2- Forenoon period (7 am to 2 pm): This period has the lowest probability of spreading pollution. So, recycling activities are recommended if the other weather conditions are suitable.

3- Afternoon Period (2 pm to 8 pm): This period is the same as Forenoon Period for warm seasons and the Night Period in Cold seasons.

The results of this research has been successfully implemented in waste management of Mashad. The project can be performed in other areas too.

Atmospheric-Climatic Disasters Division

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In recent years, occurrence of atmospheric-climatic disasters in several countries and their numerous social and economic damages have led to a new approach to deal with the spectrum of disasters and macro management to the atmospheric-climatic disasters Risk Management. In this case, identification, analysis, prediction, early warning and finally presented dealing management play an important role.

In this regard, “Research Group on Climatology of Atmospheric-Climatic Disasters” performs its activities in the following fields in order to meet the needs of several departments and achieve the following targets:

- To identify climate disasters in the country.

- To collect data and statistics and update the database of atmospheric-climatic hazards in

the country.

- To collect domestic and foreign books and documents in the field of atmospheric-climatic

hazards and to assess legislations associated with climate disasters,

- To prepare zoning maps of climatic and atmospheric hazards in the country based on

different standards.

- To conduct applied researches on the causes and circumstances of occurrence, spatial and

temporal distribution of hazards, and possibility of adjusting conditions during the

occurrence of various climatic disasters in the country.

- To present climate analysis during climatic-atmospheric disasters occurrence.

- Feasibility study to present early warning, predicting and modifying for climatic-

atmospheric disasters.

- To study the effects and consequences of climatic-atmospheric disasters on social,

cultural, economic, political, and all the other human activities.

- To study the risk of atmospheric disasters and to present risk management strategies

when confronting the occurrence of natural hazards.

- To continue cooperation with universities and other internal and external research centers • Preparation of Iran's Natural Hazards Profile

According to the new disasters classification, presented in (CRED), natural disasters are divided into five categories: biological, geophysical, climatic, hydrological and weather. Natural disasters are also classified into three categories: climatic disasters, geological disasters and biological disasters which have their own characteristics.

Climatic-atmospheric disasters include natural processes or atmospheric, hydrological, and oceanic events that include frost, drought, snow, hail, and dust storms. Those in our country due to geographical and environmental conditions are of particular importance.

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It seems important to recognize the special areas where these disasters are likely to happen. Using these results, we can take effective steps in the field of macro management; especially health management.

In this project, the number of frost events, thunderstorms, dust, hail, heat waves, drought, sunshine hours and radiation and their distribution according to the season and year were studied . Below, you can see a sample of results for the average number of days with dust and heat waves.

Fig. 5. Mean Average Days with Dust (right) and Heat Waves (left)

• A Comprehensive Project for Drought Outlook and Early Warning

In recent years, climatic extreme events have increased because of global warming, so, demand for awareness of seasonal precipitation prediction and future drought status has increased too. In water resources and agriculture section, this demand is clearer. For this purpose and for upgrading the accuracy of seasonal precipitation prediction and drought index on Iran, a comprehensive project for drought outlook and early warning has been done.

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Fig. 6. Flowchart of three months SPI prediction using post-processing of MRI-CGCM3 outputs.

Table 1: Capabilities of post-processing models in prediction of SPI drought index. Observed and non-post-processed SPI are also shown.

• Monthly Drought Monitoring Program

The National Center for Climatology relies upon a number of synoptic weather stations to monitor drought conditions over Iran each month using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The

assessment of accuracy of statistical post processing model

coparision between post processing precipitation data and SPI and observation precipitaion data and SPI

predicting SPI for 3 future months

precipitation post processing in 28 years (1980-2007) for 71 stations

using from outputs of MRI-CGCM3 seasonal prediction model 20 variable-climatic index and precipitation network data

A Comprehensive Project for Drought Outlook and Early Warning

Correlation with

observation SPI SPI Standard Deviation Bias to observation SPI

CGCM CGCM-Post OBS CGCM CGCM-Post CGCM CGCM-Post

Aug 2001 0.26 0.53 0.79 0.5 0.72 0.18 0.06

Feb 2001 0.08 0.41 0.91 0.71 0.77 0.66 -0.08

Aug 2007 0.1 0.27 0.9 0.43 0.74 -0.91 -0.68

Feb 2007 -0.06 0.28 0.7 0.97 1.04 1.5 0.01

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drought indices are calculated in five time series of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. Also, a monthly newsletter containing Iran drought conditions is published each month.

In the Bellow, two samples of Iran drought projections with time periods till March 2012 are shown.

Fig. 7. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) over Iran for 3 and 12 months running ending to the March 2012.

The most important functions of climate change division are: detection of climate change, climate change modeling, impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture and health sector, climate change adaptation, investigation of climate change over West Asia, cooperation with seasonal forecast program of EC O-RCRM and MCC, cooperation with IRIMO in long-term planning on the basis of sustainable development and participation in national communication reports to UNFCC and IPCC.

Some important research projects of the climate change division are as follows:

• Capability of RegCM3 in Modeling Climate of Iran

In this project, skill of the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) regional climate model in simulation of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperature by using four different cumulus parameterization of Grell-AS, Grell-FC, Emanuel and Kuo have been studied over khorasan area for winter & autumn seasons of 1991-2000.

Errors of the modeled data were computed by comparing with CMAP precipitation, NCEP temperature and observed data of 15 synoptic weather stations which are located in the study area. According to the results, Grell-AS has no reliable skills for modeling monthly to seasonal

Climate Change Division

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precipitation and temperature of autumn. Also in winter, monthly and seasonal bias of the Grell-FC and Grell-AS is lower than the other parameterizations scheme. The results of this paper can be used in operational seasonal predictions and research purposes as well.

Fig. 8. Simulated precipitation using RegCM3model for autumns (1993) & winters (1991)

• Evaluation of PRECIS in Modeling Climate of Iran

Under research of the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), all parties must study the impact of climate change in their countries using regional climate models. In this regard, this center has studied climate change over Iran using different dynamical and statistical models.

PRECIS is one of the powerful models which are used widely for studying climate change assessment especially for water resources and agriculture in future decades. In this research, Iran monthly to seasonal precipitation has been modeled using PRECIS regional climate model with HadAM3P boundary condition data. PRECIS skill in modeling regional temperature and Iran mean temperature as well. Also, its skill in modeling regional precipitation, especially over the regions with high amount of convective and local precipitation is low, but it can model well the total precipitation of Iran .In general, PRECIS can be used for regional climate modeling over Iran and future climate change projections.

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Fig. 9. Monthly skill of PRECIS in modeling relative amount of precipitation (Modeled/OBS).

• Climate Change Assessment over Iran Using Magicc-Scengen Model

In recent years, some climate change scenario generator models were developed. Magicc-Scengen is one of the simple climate scenario generator models. In this project, we have modeled the climate of Iran for future periods using Magicc-Scengen which uses ECHAM4 and HADCAM2 as input data. In this model, Iran has been divided into 9 grids. Temperature and precipitation were analyzed during: 1986-2015, 2011-2040, 2036-2065 and 2086-2115. Schematic flowchart of the method is shown in the bellow figure.

Fig. 10. Diagram of Future Climate Change Modeling using Magicc-Scengen.

Library of Emissions Scenarios

User choices of Model Parameters

Global-mean Temperature and Sea Level Model

Global-mean Temperature and Sea Level Output

User choices: GCMs to use, future date, region, etc.

Library of GCMs

Regionalization Algorithm

Library of baseline climatology data (1961-90)

Regional Climate or Climate Change Output

MAGICC

SCENGEN

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Result of HadCM2 model showed a % 2.5 decrease in precipitation until 2100 while ECHAM4 showed a %19.8 increase in the same period. Another difference between the results of these 2 models is that HadCM2 predicts an increase in precipitation in next decades for Mazandaran, Golestan, Khorasan Shomali, Khorasan Razavi, Semnan, Tehran and some parts of Gilan and Ghazvin provinces, while ECHAM4 predicts a decrease in the same regions. HadCM2 predicts precipitation decrease for southeast of Iran including Hormozgan, Kerman, Bushehr, south of Fars and some parts of sistan va Baloochestan, but in ECHAM4 the same regions will experience an increase of precipitation. In case of temperature, both HadCM2 and ECHAM4 have been modeled the rising of temperature in next decades for all provinces by average amount of 3 to 3.6°c until 2100s. Maximum warm bias of ECHAM4 is about 1°c more than HadCM2.

Fig. 11. Precipitation (left) and Temperature (right) Change over Iran using Magicc-Scengen.

• Climate Change Assessment over Iran during 2010-2039 by Using LARS-WG Model

Because of low spatial resolution of General Circulation Models, these models cannot predict weather and climate in details. In this regard, Weather Generator technique has been developed by climatologists to downscale GCM outputs into station scale. In this project, gridded meteorological outputs of ECHO-G model including precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and radiation have been downscaled over 43 synoptic stations of Iran during 2010-2039 with A1 scenario. Results showed that mean annual precipitation will decrease by 9 percent, increasing of mean annual temperature by 0.5 degree of centigrade during period of 2010-2039 with maximum rising temperature over North Khorasan, West and East Azerbayjan. Also thresholds of heavy and extreme rainfall will be increased by 13 and 39 percent, respectively. In this regards, in the future period, the rainfalls will be heavy and flash- flooded. We also found that there is a significant decrease in the amount of snow falls and shift of precipitation in to end of rainy season. Figure 12 shows spatial distribution of precipitation changes over Iran during 2010-2039 related to the observation period.

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Prec

ipita

tion

Chan

ge(%

)

IS92a

EMCONST

IS92aEXT

IS92b

IS92C

IS92D

IS92E

IS92F

K_1PC2000

K_1CON1

K_NOMORE

SRESA1

SRESA2

SRES98B1

SRES98B2

WRE 450

WRE550

WRE650

MEAN

UPPER%95

LOWER%5

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Fig. 12. Precipitation changes over Iran during 2010-2039 using statistical downscaling of ECHO-G outputs.

• Climate Change Study over Caspian Sea Basin using PRECIS Model

Climate change assessment over Caspian Sea countries including Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, parts of Kazakhstan and Russia has been studied using PRECIS regional climate model. Because it has no outlet to the ocean, the Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone rapid shifts in response to climatic forces, and this has been devastating for the surrounding countries. Because of the economic role of the Caspian Sea, we have studied the impact of climate change on Caspian Sea region for the period of 2071-2100. Interested region has simulated with A2 & B2 scenario by using PRECIS Climate model at 50 km grid spacing. By comparing the results of the model outputs in 2071-2100 with reference period of 1961-1990, we have found out that the runoff was expected to increase up to 2.8 mm/day over West central of Caspian Sea. Snowfall will decrease by 1.2 to 2.1 mm/day over mountainous regions (Fig. 13).

In this project, we have showed that precipitation will increase over southwestern of Caspian Sea by approximately 0.15 to 0.3mm/day, it will decrease over Southeast of Caspian Sea and over Volga basin by 0.2 and up to 2.5 mm/day, respectively. Temperature increase in Southwest is 0.5oC more than Eastern regions. Temperature will increase especially over Caucasus and Elburz Mountains range, by maximum amount of 5.2 ˚C (Fig. 14).

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Fig. 13. Simulation of Snowfall (up) and Runoff (bellow) Changes over Caspian Sea and Some of Neighboring Countries during 2071-2100 using A2 (right) and B2 (left) scenario.

Fig. 14. Simulation of Temperature (up) and Precipitation (bellow) Changes over Caspian Sea and some of neighboring countries during 2071-2100 using A2 (right) and B2 (left) scenario.

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Since 2004, more than 81 papers have been published in international and national journals by researchers of the Center. In addition, 63 and 45 papers have been presented in international and national conferences respectively. Bar chart of published papers from 2004 up to 2011 is shown in figure 15.

Fig. 15. Published papers in international and national journals and conferences from 2004-2011.

Fig. 16. Cooperation of CRI researchers in publishing the books during 2004-2011.

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۲۰۰۴ ۲۰۰۵ ۲۰۰۶ ۲۰۰۷ ۲۰۰۸ ۲۰۰۹ ۲۰۱۰ ۲۰۱۱

ISI Paper Persian Research PaperPersian Technical Paper National Conference

Publications

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CRI publish magazines and Journals Including Journal of Climate Research (JCR), Nivar, Climate Newsletters, Seasonal Prediction newsletters (in Farsi and English) and Geographical Researches.

Fig. 17. Three main CRI Journals of Climatic researches, Geographical Researches and Nivar.

According to international and national responsibility of Climatology Research Institute (CRI) & National Center Climate, educational activities as one of the main functions are of highly importance for the capacity building. In this regard, we conduct the following educational and training activities including workshops, training courses and monthly climatic discussions. From 2004 up to now, we have established 82 Lectures, 50 workshops & training courses and 4 national conferences. Iran-Korea Joint Workshop on Climate Modeling is one of the successful international workshops held in Mashad on 16 - 17 November 2005. The second workshop was held in 21-26 November 2006 at South Korea.

Fig. 18. Proceeding of the first and second joint Iran-Korea workshop on Climate Modeling.

• Educational activities

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Fig. 19. A training course which was held for Iraqi and Tajik experts in Mashad

The first seasonal forecast was issued in National Center for Climatology in 2006 based on Tele-connection analysis as El-Nino, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), average surface pressure patterns and geopotential height pattern in 500mb chart. Since 2006, the graphical maps of precipitation and temperature forecasts were taken from IRI, ECMWF, HadCM and then were analyzed and interpolated in 1×1 degree grids. One of the most important and successful predictions of this period is drought prediction in 2006. In 2006, predictions were made by graphical results of four models, NCEP, TCC, ECMWF and HadCM. For providing the final regional integration map, first graphical data of different seasonal forecasting models were re-gridded down to 1×1 degree networks, and then the final seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasting maps were prepared by averaging over grid points (Fig. 20).

Fig. 20. Seasonal Precipitation Forecast based on gridded averaging of MRI-CGCM, NCEP, ECMWF and HadCM models outputs (2007).

• Seasonal Forecasting Program

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From late 2007 and early 2008, two changes were made in the seasonal forecasting process: first, the grid point value of MRI-CGCM and NCEP models were replaced by graphical data which was more reliable than graphical data. Second, the data averaging system of these four models were changed, so, the outputs of seasonal forecasting models were averaged by Arc-GIS technique that promoted the accuracy and quality of the forecast maps.

At present, according to the cooperation between this Center and Tokyo Climate Center, MRI-CGCM3 outputs such as precipitation and temperature, are received every month. In the absence of post processing, this data is not usable for seasonal forecasting purposes, but our researchers have calibrated the precipitation data by using statistical post-processing on the output of the Model and provide reliable forecasting. Figure 15 shows the post-processing model capabilities for improvement of dynamic forecasting model of MRI-CGCM3.

Fig. 21. Classification Mean Square Skill Score (right) and Percentage of Square Skill (left) in February for the period 2007 to 2001 over I, R. of Iran, after post processing the outputs of MRI-CGCM3.

Flowchart of the providing seasonal forecasting procedure is shown in figure ??.

Fig. 22. Flowchart of the Providing Seasonal Forecasting Procedure

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So far, all the efforts to predict drought in the country as forecasting precipitation or drought have been statistical and no case has been found in which drought is predicted by dynamical models. Since the primary need for drought prediction is precipitation forecast, in this project the output of precipitation has been post-processed and calibrated to grid-scale station by using output of seasonal precipitation forecasting model of MRI-CGCM3, calculating partial correlations ranged 20-various and observation precipitation, then applied multiple regression techniques. After processing the precipitation data, drought indices have been predicted based on the modified SPI index by these precipitation data.

Fig. 23. Drought classifications for three months lead time December 2000 to February 2001. The left: observed SPI, the middle: Non-post processed SPI, the right: post-processed SPI.

Since climate change has led to severe droughts in the world during recent years; especially in some ECO member states, the necessity for the establishment of a regional center for risk management of natural disasters was approved by the 1st ECO Ministerial Meeting on Agriculture in July 26-28 Tehran, I.R of Iran. It was agreed to establish such a center in National Center for Climatology of Mashhad, based on the proposal submitted by I.R of Iran Meteorological organization to the 2nd ECO Ministerial Meeting (6th-7th December Antalya, Turkey). In line with the agreement reached in the 17th Regional planning council (RPC), February 2007, and the 3rd ECO Ministerial Meeting on Agriculture, March 2007, the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological organization has suggested to host the 1st ECO Meeting of the Heads of Meteorological organizations in September 3-4, 2007, in Tehran. Following the above

• Drought Outlook and Early-warning System (DOES)

• ECO-Regional Center for Risk Management of Natural Disasters (ECO-RCRM)

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meeting, the inauguration ceremony of the Regional Center for Risk Management of Natural Disasters will be held in September 5, 2007, Mashad, Iran.

Fig. 23. Opening Ceremony of ECO-Regional Center for Risk Management of Natural Disasters (ECO-RCRM) in September 2007, Mashhad-Iran.

Fig. 24. Home page of ECO-RCRM (www.eco-rcrem.ir) containing seasonal forecast over ECO region, drought early warning, monthly newsletter, workshops and useful news.

The second meeting of Heads of Hydro-meteorological Organizations was held in Turkey on 18-19 October, 2010 with the participation of Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan Republic, representative of UNDP(as an observer) and the ECO Secretariat.

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Fig. 25. Second meeting of the heads of Hydro-meteorological services of ECO countries.

Fig. 26. ECO- RCRM Newsletter on seasonal prediction, drought early warning system and news.

Considering the fact that there are two WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCC) of TCC (Tokyo Climate Center) and BCC (Beijing Climate Center) in East Asia, I. R. of Iran submitted its proposal to establish a RCC in West Asia in I. R. of Iran National Center for Climatology, located in Mashad. This proposal was confirmed at several meetings including WMO RA II Regional Association meeting which was held in Tashkent 2008.

Figure 27 shows the spatial distribution of RCCs in the world. Regarding the map, Mashad regional Climate Center (MCC) is in the development phase.

• Mashad Regional Climate Center (MCC)-in development

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Fig. 27. WMO Regional Climate Centers. There are two designated RCC in Asia of TCC and BCC. MCC is under

development phase.

One of the main activities of this Center is to provide seasonal forecasts over West Asian countries. One of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by the Center is shown in figure 28.

Fig. 28. Seasonal Precipitation Forecast over West Asia for the Period of Nov 2010-Jan 2011

Some main functions and activities of Mashad Climate Center (MCC-in development) are as follows:

• Providing seasonal forecasts for West Asia region, • Evaluation and calibration of seasonal forecast models from different Global producing

centers,

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• Cooperation with WMO-RCCs in Asia including Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) and Beijing Climate Center (BCC) to promote the capabilities of Mashad Climate Center (MCC),

• Cooperation with European Forecasting Centers including European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in order to obtain seasonal forecast data to provid reliable seasonal forecasts and drought early warning system over West Asian countries and ECO Member States

• Periodical activity report of the Center to submit WMO and ECO secretariat, • Holding training courses and workshops for meteorology experts of Iran and West Asian

countries • Modeling the impacts of Global Warming on hydro-climatic variables such as

precipitation, temperature, runoff, floods, extreme events and displacement of the seasons,

• Promotion of international and regional cooperation on the basis of seasonal forecasts, drought prediction, climate change modeling, training courses and other bilateral interested areas,

• Establishment of a climatic extreme events prediction system by studying the relationship between extreme events and climatic tele-connections,

• Improvement of the quality and accessibility of the seasonal forecasting and drought prediction outputs using Web-GIS technique,

• Conduct of Studies on the running, dynamical downscaling and sensibility of the different schemes of the global seasonal forecast models,

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In recent years, global warming has led to widespread changes in the Earth’s surface. To know the outcomes in different social and economic sections can help managers and programmers of our country in compatibility and reduction of detrimental effects especially on agriculture, water resources and health. Some of the most important outcomes of climate change in future decades are as follows:

• Average temperature in Iran will increase by 0.5 degree centigrade in 2010-2039 • Winter temperature will increase more than the other seasons by 0.2 degree centigrade • Increase in temperature, especially in winter will lead to reduction in cold period length

and the needed cooling degree days of some plants such as Saffron and Pistachio • In future decades, precipitation will decrease and low precipitation will occur in limited

times and as flooding; • Decreasing precipitation will spread dry zoning, therefore occurrence of dust storm and

sand dune will increase even in urban areas • Maybe in future decades, climatological averages will be equal with statistical period

averages in some places but their changes to statistical period averages will be more; • The most important characteristic of future climate will be extreme changes, so, climatic

extreme events such as storms, hail storms, extreme heat and cold, floods, and droughts will increase in statistical period;

• Agro climate zoning will change and gradually the special crops of regions cannot be cultivated in the same region;

• Increase in temperature will lead to reduction in snow, therefore, groundwater resources will not be fed in mountainous areas.

• Some Impacts of climate change in future

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• Improving the capability of the Center for West Asia and ECO region countries, • Providing 3-month drought outlook over the region using post-processing of the

dynamical seasonal forecast models, • Establishment dynamical/statistical tele-connection prediction system using

dynamical forecast models, • Establishment climatic of extreme event prediction system by study the

relationship between extreme events and climatic tele-connections, • Improvement of the quality and accessibility of the seasonal forecasting and

drought prediction outputs using Web-GIS technique, • Study of running, dynamical downscaling and sensibility of the different schemes

of the global seasonal forecast models, • Study of data assimilation techniques to provide initial and boundary condition

data to feed the dynamical models, • Improvement of the drought monitoring system using variety of data from

ground-based to satellite-based measurement systems, • Modeling the impacts of Global Warming on hydro-climatic variables such as

precipitation, temperature, runoff, floods, extreme events and displacement of the seasons,

• Modeling the impacts of Global Warming on agro-climatic variables such as evapo-transpiration, growing period length, dry periods, water requirements, . . .

• Preparing periodical technical reports on the state of climate with emphasis on extreme events in seasonal to annual scales

• Implementation of research and operational projects in cooperation with IRIMO such as automatic road weather systems, climatic comfort indices, long-term planning and . . . ,

• Holding training courses and workshops for applied research centers of provincial meteorology offices to improve the quality and quantity of the products needed for sector users,

• Promotion of international and regional cooperation on the basis of seasonal forecasts, drought prediction, climate change modeling, training courses and other bilateral interested areas,

• Future Programs of the Center

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ASMERC (Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center) is one of the research institutes of IRIMO. There is a close cooperation between CRI and ASMERC especially in the field of climatic issues. In this regard, a brief introduction of ASMERC is presented here.

Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) got authorized permit to establish ASMERC with nine Research Groups (RG) from the Ministry of Culture and Higher Education in 1989. The main objectives of this Center are to study theoretical and applied meteorology and to direct activities toward a better understanding of meteorology and to develop new applications in the field of meteorology.

Dynamic &. Synoptic Meteorology RG: Study of thermodynamic and hydrodynamic of atmosphere using numerical weather prediction models for short and medium range weather forecasts.

Climatology RG: Study of climate system and climatic classifications. Know-how on Climate and its impacts on agriculture, water, energy, urbanization and building recreation, tourism.

Physical Meteorology & Weather Modification RG: Study of thermodynamics and physics of cloud. Cloud Seeding for precipitation enhancement, fog dispersal, and hail suppression. Optimal application of solar and wind energy

• Annex 1: IRIMO and ASMERC in Brief

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Agrometeorology RG: Study of meteorology and climatology role on rain-fed cultivation, forests, grasslands, animal husbandry, drought, desertification, animal diseases, pests, protection of plants from chilling, frost, and heat waves.

Hydrometeorology RG: Early warning for flood and storm to reduce causalities and damages. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) in different basins of the country and neighboring countries

Atmospheric Chemistry, Ozone, and Air pollution RG: Study of effective processes in dispersion and removal of air pollutants. Study of Ozone and its change consequences. Modeling aspects of urban air quality.

Marine Meteorology & Physical Oceanography RG: Study of physical, chemical and dynamical processes of seas and oceans. Study of air--sea interaction. Study of current, wave, and tidal models.

Atmospheric Prospecting RG: Study of imagery received from different weather satellites. Study of radiosonde and weather radar and their networks in the country.

Aeronautical Meteorology RG: Synoptic and dynamic meteorological studies for flight safety. Meteorological and climatologically studies for site selection and designing of airports.

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По рекомендацию Всемирной метеорологической организации странам – участникам, Национальный метеорологический центр Исламской Республики Иран был создан в 1996 году в Мешхеде. Учитывая, что в настоящее время в Азии существуют два регионального центра, включая метеорологический центр Токио (TCC), и метеорологический центр Пекина, Исламская Республика Иран на базе существующего потенциала и опыта национального метеорологического центра предложила о своей кандидатуре для создания метеорологического центра на западной Азии. В 2008 году метеорологический союз выдал своё принципиальное согласие на создания регионального метеорологического центра Мешхеда (Mashhad Climate Center) в целях выдачи заключений о сезонной диагностики, засухи и оценки климатических изменений на западной Азию.

Ниже на рисунке представлены региональных метеорологических центров по всему миру и региону 2 мирового метеорологического центра Азии.

Рисунок 1. региональные метеорологические центры в разных регионах мира. Региональный метеорологический центр Мешхеда на этапе развития.

В 2011 году Метеорологический союз поблагодарил этот центр за хорошую деятельность в выдачи заключений о сезонной диагностики, засухи для западного региона Азии.

Краткое представление Центра управления последствиями стихийными бедствиями Эко (ECO-RCRM) и Национального метеорологического (климатологического) центра (MCC):

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Рисунок 2. Благодарность Метеорологического союза региона 2 Азии за деятельность метеорологического центра Мешхеда (заседание в Дохе, 2012)

Этот центр в 2007 году официально начал свое деятельность в трех иследовательских групах – 1. Изменение климата, 2. Прикладная климатология, 3. Метеорологические и климатические бедствия. Указанный центр при поддержке IRIMO и тесное сотрудничестве с метеорологическими центрами Токио (Япония) и национальным центром метеорологических исследований Южной Кореи, до сих пор приступал к приготовлению климатических диагностик (ежемесячних и сезонных) для региона Эко, организованию учебных курсов и семинаров, выполнению исследователских проектов. Далее коротко предъявляется оснавные планы деятельности, выполняемые данным центром в 2008-2012 гг.

1 – план сезонной диагностики

С 2007 года при исползовании индексов Эль-Ниньо, Северо-Атлантического колебания шаблонов среднего давления и уравня атмосфера, приготовилась сезонная диагностика осадков и температуры для Ирана. С 2008 года, учитывая графические результаты создались 4 модела сезонной диагностики – NECP, TCC, ECMWF и модел NadCM. Нижняя рисунка показывает осадков западного региона Азии и Эко на основании комбиированных из четерех указанных моделей диагностик в 2008 г.

Рисунок 3. Сезонная диагностика осадков Ирана на основании комбиирования систематизированных графических данных моделей TCC, NECP, ECMWF и NadCM (2008)

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В настоящее время, обращая внимание на взаимопонимание между данным центром и метеорологическим центром Токио, ежемесячно взимается выходную модель сезонной диагностики MRI-CGCM3, включая данные осадков и температуры и завершается процесс их статической постобработки.

Таким образом в этом центре впервые появилась возможность использования методов, основанных на динамические модели диагностики засухи. Также результаты диагностики западного региона Азии и ECO ежемесячно издается в форме информационного бюллетеня, образец икоторого наблюдается на нижнем рисунке:

Рисунок 6. Ежемесячный информационный бюллетень сезонной диагностики Эко для стран – участников и запада Азии

3. Ежемесячная программа мониторинга засухи

В этой программе, на основе индекса SPI, засуха соблюдается как временные ряды – один месячный, 3-месячный, 6-месячный, один-летный и 2-летный – и извеликая пользу из выхода этого индекса зонированные карты ежемесячно размешаются на веб-сайте данного центра. В настоящее время эти карты приготавливаются для Ирана, а в дальнейщем с сотрудничеством стран – участников Эко и при возможности доступа к ежедневным данным осадков, приготавление указанных карт для региона Эко входит в программу этого центра.

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Для того, чтобы обеспечить надежное прогнозирование данные осадков калибруются. Ниже на рисунке показывается возможность модели постобработки, используемой в улучшении диагностики динамической модели MRI-CGCM3.

Рисунок 4. Возможность статической модели экспоненциальных малых масштабах, используемой для улучшения выхода осадков модели MRI-CGCM3 в диагностике осадков Ирана (2011)

Рисунок 5. Веб-сайт метеорологического центра Мешхеда (направо) и пример сезонной диагностики, выпущенной для западного региона Азии и Эко (налево)

Программа предзнаменования и диагностики засухи:

В этой программе, используя 20 различных переменных, выхд осадков модели сезонной диагностики MRI-CGCM3 обрабатывается, калибруется и после обработки данных осадков, их выходы исползуются для диагностики индекса засухи.

Исследовательская деятельность - Исследовательская группа климатического изменения

Эта группа формировалась с целью устанавления и обнаружения климатического изменения по всей стране, диагностики предполагаемой изменения в будущем и также изучения

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последствий метеорологического изменения над различными экономическими и социальными областями и еще в соответствии со своими международными обязательствами, особенно изучения метеорологического изменения на западе Азии и в странах – участниках Эко.

Далее указаны названия оснавных проектов, проводимых данным Центром:

• Проект изучения метеорологического изменения и моделирования в Иране (2006)

• Изучение и оценка способности метеорологической модели RegCM к моделированию климата Ирана (2007)

• Изучение и оценка способности метеорологической модели PRCIES к моделированию климата Ирана (2007) • Изучение и оценка способности метеорологической модели Magic-Scengen к моделированию климата Ирана (2008)

• Оценка климата Ирана в 2010-2039 гг., используя статистическую модель экспоненциального мелкомасштабного ECNO_G (2005) - Исследовательская группа климтологии атмосферных-метеорологических бедствий

Возникновение атмосферных и климатических бедствий и создание многочисленных убытков в Иране вызывало новый взгляд по поводу противодействия таким событиям и макро управление страны было отодвинута в сторону управления последствиями атмосферными бедствиями. В связи с этим, познание, анализ, предъявление, предзнаменование, предсказание и, в конце концов, предъявление противодействующеих управлений здесь играют очень важную роль.

Названия оснавных проектов, проводимых данной группой состоят из:

• Подготовки профиля стихийных бедствий в Иране (2011) • Универсального плана предостережения и предзнаменования засухи (2011)

• Проекта атласа атмосферных-климатических бедствий Хорасана (2010) - Исследовательская группа прикладной климтологии

Данная группа создалась с целью исследования в сфере прикладного климата, включая климат и энергия, климат и соотвествие городского и сельского архитектуры, климат и структура использования воды, исследование и анализ методов по смягчению последствий изменения, применение климатических потенциалов разных регионов страны в сельском хозяйстве, управлении водными ресурсами ... а также познание климата и загрязнение воздуха и окружающей среды.

Эта группа выполнила нижеуказанные проекты:

• Зонирование и возможность прогноза погоды дорогов страны (2009)

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• Исследование и предоставление наиболее подходящих дорожных метеорологических датчиков в климатических областях Ирана (2010)

• Исследование и диагностика выбросы загрязняющих газов в городские райны Мешхеда от промышленного комплекса переработки и завода компоста Мешхеда (2011) Образовательная деятельность

Деятельность этого центра в соответствии с образовательными целями включает обмен опытами и передачу результатов исследований среди местных и иностранных ученых и специалистов и организованию учебных курсов и семинаров, Создание специализированных конференций и научных докладов.

- Организования семинаров совместного климатического моделирования между Ираном и Южной Кореей

- Обучение специалистов стран – Таджикистана, Афганистана, Ирака и Судана

- Участие в организации 4 научных конференции

- Проведение 82 ежемесячных научных докладов в метеоролгическом центре Мешхеда

- Организования 50 Внутренних семинаров

- издание ? экземпляров книг

- издание 81 статьи местных и иностранных престижных научных журналах

- предъявление 63 статьи в местных конференциях и 45 статьй в между народных конференциях

Рисунок 8. Плакат и дизайн обложки, краткое содержание статьей семинаров

климатического моделирования, совместного между Ираном и Южной

Кореей

Направо первый семинар (Мешхад, 2005)

Налево второй семинар

(Чеджу, ноября 2006 г.)