National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | May ... · ChartRoom_p10,11 12,13 The...

See page 14 for disclosures and analyst certification

1

-40

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-10

0

10

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30

40

50

60

-40

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-20

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

US Europe ex UK UK Japan Emerging Markets

Source: NBG Research, Factset

% %

Esti

mat

es

Annual EPS Growth

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-16

Sep-

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Oct

-16

No

v-16

Dec

-16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-17

May

-17

Developed Markets Emerging Markets% %

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg - Jan 1st, 2017 = 0

MSCI Emerging vs Developed Markets Performance

N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

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Global Markets Roundup

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | May 16, 2017

Double-digit EPS growth continues to support global equities

Paul Mylonas, PhD

NBG Group

210-3341521

[email protected]

Ilias TsirigotakisAC

Head of Global

Markets Research

210-3341517

[email protected]

Panagiotis Bakalis

210-3341545

[email protected]

Lazaros Ioannidis

210-3341553

[email protected]

Vasiliki Karagianni

210-3341548

[email protected]

Table of Contents

Overview_p1

Economics & Markets_p2,3 Asset Allocation_p4

Outlook_p5,6

Forecasts_p7 Event Calendar_p8

Markets Monitor_p9

ChartRoom_p10,11

Market Valuation_p12,13

The European Commission upgraded its 2017 euro area GDP growth estimate by 0.1 pp to 1.7% yoy,

while maintaining its estimate for 1.8% yoy in 2018 (Greece: 2.1% in 2017). The positive revision

mostly reflects job creation, higher confidence levels and stronger global trade.

The US economy, following a weak start (+0.7% qoq saar in Q1:17), is expected to accelerate in

Q2:17 (Atlanta’s Fed GDPNow: +3.6% qoq saar, Consensus: 3.0%), albeit risks are skewed to the

downside. Market attention will shift to the White House’s budget blueprint (due next week), which

is likely to include details on tax and spending policies.

Chinese GDP likely peaked at 6.9% yoy in Q1:17, with weaker high frequency indicators in April (see

Economics Section). Modest monetary tightening by the PBoC, in order to stem credit expansion will

continue to contain growth (repo rate up 100 bps since February).

Developed market equities paused for breath (7% YtD), with the exception of Japan (+2.3% wow)

and the UK (+1.9% wow). The VIX index, a measure of short-term volatility, has fallen below 10%

intra-week, the lowest level since 1993.

Emerging market equities rebounded (+2.2% wow), although caution is advised following the

deceleration in EM growth in April due to lower commodity prices and easing business sentiment

(IIF GDP Growth Tracker: 6.0% from 6.8% in March).

Developed markets’ valuations (trailing PEs) have increased to 20.1x from a 10Yr average of 16.1x

and 18.5x in November ’16. Nevertheless, rich valuations are supported by corporate earnings.

Indeed, the 2017 earnings season has started on a strong note, pointing to the first synchronized

global EPS growth since 2010 (see graph).

Core government bond yields fell slightly on a weekly basis, mainly on the back of softer-than-

expected US inflation. However lower bond purchases by the ECB and a declining balance sheet by

the Fed could push up yields.

The ECB lowered its QE purchases, as expected, to €63bn in April down from €74bn in March and

€80bn in February. The asset purchases programme (APP) has so far totaled €1.8tn (Germany:

€368bn), while purchases have proceeded with only small deviations from capital keys, thus still in

favor of larger countries (see graph on page 3). Improving economic conditions and better inflation

data may prompt the ECB to announce the tapering of the programme in Q3:17 (starting from

January 2018 and ending QE purchases in June 2018).

Oil prices increased during the past week (WTI: +3.5% wow), as US oil inventories recorded a larger-

than-expected draw down (-5.2 million barrels vs an estimated -1.8 million barrels). A joint

statement by major producers (Russia, Saudi Arabia), signaling their willingness to extend output

cuts by nine months to Q1:18, also supported prices (WTI: +2.1% on Monday to $48.9/bbl).

The USD recorded losses following softer-than-expected inflation data on Friday (-0.7% against the

euro to $/1.093). The euro also found support from the outcome of German state elections, up by

0.4% on Monday to $1.098.

mailto:[email protected]


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

2

US retail sales entered Q2 on a soft note

Latest nominal retail sales data were mixed, with positive

revisions for March, reversing the weaker-than-expected

readings for April. In value terms, excluding autos, gas, food

services and building materials -- the so-called “control group”

since they feed into the calculation for GDP -- rose by 0.2% mom

(+2.9% yoy) in April (consensus: +0.4% mom) from an upwardly

revised (by 0.2 pps) +0.7 mom in March (+3.6% yoy). Overall, the

latest data are consistent with the view that consumption will

rebound in Q2, from a weak Q1. Indeed, private consumption in

real terms is expected to rebound to +2.8% qoq saar in Q2:17,

according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, following a

weak 0.3% qoq saar in Q1. Robust consumer confidence also

supports the view of a stronger consumer outlook. The University

of Michigan consumer confidence indicator increased to a strong

97.7 in May, from 97.0 in April. Overall, the Atlanta Fed’s

GDPNowcast model points to GDP growth of 3.6% qoq saar in

Q2:17, from 0.7% qoq saar in Q1:17.

Core CPI was weak for a 2nd month

Both headline and core inflation decelerated in April, with the

annual growth in core prices falling below 2% for the first time

since October 2015. Headline CPI was 2.2% yoy from 2.4% yoy in

March, with energy price growth decelerating (+9.3% yoy vs

+10.9% yoy previously). The most notable development, however,

was the further easing in core CPI, down 0.1 pp compared with the

previous month, to 1.9% yoy (an 18-month low) and down 0.4 pps

compared with January 2017 (consensus: 2.0% yoy). However, the

recent data will not likely stop the Fed from proceeding with a rate

hike in June. However, it could ease the concerns of several

hawkish FOMC members that the Fed is falling behind the curve

with its gradual approach towards monetary policy tightening.

Recall that the PCE deflator for March (the Fed’s preferred measure

for gauging inflation pressures) stood at 1.8% yoy and the core

figure at 1.6% yoy.

Easing bank loan standards / weakening demand

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for

Q1:17 was mixed regarding banks’ credit standards, while

pointing to weaker loan demand. Regarding corporates, lending

standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans were broadly

unchanged, while continuing to tighten for commercial real estate

(CRE) loans, with respondents citing, inter alia, a less favorable or

more uncertain outlook for CRE property prices and reduced

tolerance for risk. Regarding households, credit standards for

mortgage loans remained in easing mode, while banks reported

mixed trends in their standards for consumer loans across

subcategories (easing for credit cards, tightening for auto loans

and other consumer loans). On the demand side, credit appetite

weakened in all cases, with the exception of some mortgage loan

categories. Following the survey, the debate remains about

whether the recent slowdown in bank lending signifies a broader

downturn in the credit cycle or a transitory moderation, due to

counteracting factors (e.g. an upturn in business investment and

financial deregulation prospects on the one hand and higher US

interest rates on the other). Recall that the Fed’s weekly data

indicate that total loans and leases in bank credit increased by

2.6% yoy for the week ending April 26th, slightly up compared with

the previous week (2.2% yoy), but still well below the annual

growth rates reported some months ago (c. 7% in January and 9%

in October 2016).

BOE: A smoother Brexit will translate to higher rates

The Bank of England (BoE) remained on hold at its meeting on

May 10th, with the policy rate at 0.25% and the QE target at

£435bn. However, the Committee’s main message was that if the

economy evolves as expected, monetary policy may need to be

tightened by a greater extent than the yield curve implies (one rate

rise by mid-2020). The BoE’s projections for GDP growth, published

in its May Inflation report (IR), was broadly stable in the near term

(1.9% yoy in 2017), but it was upgraded slightly for 2018 and 2019

(+0.1 pp to 1.7% yoy in 2018, +0.1 pp to 1.8% yoy in 2019),

reflecting a stronger forecast for global growth, a lower yield curve

compared with February and a modest fiscal loosening in the

March Budget. On the inflation front, the BOE’s CPI estimates were

revised up slightly in the short term, (+0.1 pp to 2.8% yoy in

Q4:17), but were revised down in the medium term (-0.2 pps to

2.4% yoy in Q4:18), due to the appreciation of sterling since the

February Inflation Report (c. 2.5% in NEER terms). Moreover, the

BoE stated that “there are limits to the extent to which above-

target inflation can be tolerated”. It should be noted that the BoE’s

optimistic forecasts assume that the adjustment to the UK’s new

relationship with the European Union will be smooth, implying the

successful negotiation of a future trade deal as well as a

transitional arrangement.

Japan: An improved economic outlook, but wages still

stagnant

In Japan, business sentiment improved in April, supporting a

more positive view of the economic outlook. The ECO Watchers

current conditions index rose by 0.7 pts to 48.1 in April, after three

consecutive months of decline, while the survey’s forward-looking

indicator (outlook for 2-3 months ahead) increased by 0.7 pts to

48.8. It should be noted that the results are consistent with the

latest PMI surveys (PMI Manufacturing rose by 0.3 pts in April to a

healthy 52.7). However, wage growth unexpectedly entered

negative territory in March. Note that wage increases are

anticipated by the BoJ to stimulate spending and thus generate

inflation. Specifically, regular scheduled earnings declined by 0.1%

y-o-y in March, from +0.1% yoy in February.

Chinese economic activity moderated in April, despite

strong credit growth

High frequency activity data moderated entering Q2. Industrial

production rose by 6.5% yoy in April, from a c. 2-year high of 7.6%

yoy in March, while growth in fixed asset investment decelerated

to 8.9% yoy, from 9.2% yoy. The latter was due to private

investment (c. 60% of total), easing to 6.9% yoy from 7.7% yoy. On

the other hand, activity continues to find substantial support from

elevated public spending, with infrastructure investment the key

player (+23.3% yoy in April). Finally, retail sales decelerated to

10.7% yoy in April, from 10.9% yoy previously. Meanwhile, credit

growth remained strong, albeit at the cost of funding excessive

private debt levels (210% of GDP in Q3:16). Overall domestic credit

growth, as measured by total social financing (TSF), stood at 12.8%

yoy in April, broadly in line with the average pace of growth in

Q1:17 as well as in 2016. The growth of outstanding RMB loans

accelerated slightly to 12.9% yoy from 12.7% yoy, on average, in

Q1:17.


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section


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Net Speculators' Positions€ bn € bn

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

Net Speculators' Positions EUR vs USD

Long USD vs EUR

Long EUR vs USD

Deposit rate cut

ECB QE

-10

-8

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Mar

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Χιλιάδες

Χιλιάδες

Germany Spain France

Italy Portugal€bn €bn

Cumulative Deviation in actual ECB Asset Purchases from Capital Keys

Source: NBG Research, ECB, Bloomberg

Graph 3.

Energy 100 71 2,8 - 423,6 159,4 116,7

Materials 100 72 3,9 17,8 4,9 9,7 19,8

Financials 100 82 11,2 18,7 8,2 5,8 17,8

Real Estate 100 58 14,9 8,5 5,3 6,9 2,2

Industrials 99 77 -5,8 1,4 -0,2 5,2 13,8

Consumer Discretionary 76 75 4,4 7,0 -0,7 3,7 11,2

IT 81 84 10,2 17,4 8,2 7,2 8,6

Consumer Staples 84 58 5,1 3,6 3,4 5,5 7,1

Health Care 90 78 5,3 4,9 0,9 3,5 6,0

Telecom Services 100 0 -27,9 -5,0 1,7 -0,9 0,7

Utiities 100 75 15,6 4,9 -1,2 -2,4 6,9

S&P500 91 74 5,1 14,4 6,8 7,5 12,3

Ex-Financials 90 73 4,0 13,4 6,6 7,9 11,2

Ex-Energy 90 75 5,2 9,9 3,8 4,9 10,2

Source: Factset, Data as of May 12th

Q3:17 Q4:17

Table: S&P500 EPS Growth Estimates YoY (%)

% Companies

Reported

% Positive

SurpriseQ4:16

Q1:17

reportedQ2:17

Quote of the week: “I would like to comment on and

support what my colleague Peter Praet has said this

morning: in what regards monetary policy, loose for longer

is less risky than premature withdrawal of stimulus”, Vítor

Constancio, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,

May 11th 2017.

Graph 1.

Equities Global equity markets treaded water in the past week, as investors’ risk

appetite eased, due to the political uncertainty following President Trump’s

dismissal of the FBI chief and the news that North Korea is planning a nuclear

test. The MSCI World Index rose by 0.3% wow, adding to its year-to-date gains

(+7.5%). In the US, the S&P500 index ended the week down (-0.3%), the first

decline after 4 weeks, with Materials (-1.7%), and Financials (-1.3%) leading the

decline. As the US Q1:17 earnings season concludes, out of the 459 companies

that have reported results so far, circa 74% have exceeded analyst estimates,

with EPS growth at 14.4% yoy, the highest since Q4:11, from 5.1% yoy in Q4:16.

Furthermore, 10 out of 11 sectors have reported positive EPS growth, with the

exception of Telecoms (see table). Meanwhile the Nikkei225 increased by 2.3%

on the back of the weaker Yen (-0.7% in NEER terms). In Japan, 41% of

companies have reported earnings for Q1:17, with 57% exceeding analyst

estimates and EPS growth at 25% yoy, from 12% in Q4:16. European markets

were mixed in the past week, with the EuroStoxx index ending the week down by

0.5%, with banks recording losses (-2.6% wow), while the FTSE 100 rose 1.9%

wow, mostly supported by a weaker British pound. However, on Monday

morning, European equities rose, with the DAX 30 reaching an all-time high on

early trade, after Sunday’s CDU election victory in North Rhine-Westphalia,

Germany’s most populous state (1/5 of German Voters). The CDU gained 33.0%

of the vote, and the SPD 31.2%, the worst result since World War II. The CDU,

together with the liberal FDP (12.6%), can replace the SPD-led government in

the state, creating strong momentum for Merkel in the September elections

(24th September). In the euro area, 70% of companies have reported earnings for

Q1:17, with 61% exceeding analyst estimates and EPS growth at 18% yoy, from

12% in Q4:16.

Fixed Income Long-term nominal Government bond yields declined in most regions, on

the back of weaker-than-expected economic data. The US Treasury 10-year yield

was down by 2.3 bps wow to 2.33%, due to a decline on Friday (-6.2 bps), due to

softer-than-expected US inflation data for April. The respective UK 10-year Gilt

yield ended the week down by 3.1 bps to 1.09%, after weaker-than-expected

industrial production data. Similarly, core euro area government bond yields fell

across the board, with the German 10-year Bund yield declining by 2.7 bps to

0.39%. On Monday, the German 10-year Bund yield rose by 2.9 bps to 0.42%,

following the election result in North Rhine-Westphalia. Euro area periphery

bond spreads widened across countries (+11 bps to +186 bps for Italian 10Yr

BTPs, +10 bps to 124 bps for Spanish 10Yr Bonos, +1 bp to 298 bps for the

Portuguese government 10Yr bond).

US High Yield corporate bond spreads benefited from a rebound in oil

prices. US HY spreads fell by 5 bps wow to 377 bps, while their euro area

counterparts also declined, by 5 bps to 307 bps. In the investment grade (IG)

spectrum, both euro area and US IG corporate bond spreads declined by 3 bps

to 106 bps and 118 bps, respectively.

FX & Commodities In foreign exchange markets, the British pound recorded losses on a weekly

basis, after the Bank of England showed no signal of raising rates before 2020.

Indeed, the British pound declined by 0.1% wow against the euro to €/0.848 and

by 0.7% wow against the USD to $/1.289.

In commodities, oil prices rebounded in the past week, as comments from

Saudi Arabian and Russian energy ministers, ahead of the OPEC meeting on May

25th in Vienna, signaled their willingness to extend the production-cut deal for at

least 9 months. Moreover, US oil inventories recorded a larger-than-expected

decline (-5.2 mbs to 523 mbs for the week ending May 5th, compared with an

expected -1.8 mbs). Overall, WTI rose by 3.5% on a weekly basis, to $47.8/barrel

and Brent by 2.9% to $50.3/barrel.

Graph 2.

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Asset Allocation


4


O F G R E E C E

55 2317

5

64,7 14,5

12,2

8,7

Equities

Government Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Cash

NBG Portfolio

Benchmark

US Sector Position

EA Sector Position

*Including Technology and Industrials

**Including Healthcare, Utilities, Telecoms

We choose neutral positions across other

sectors, for now

We choose neutral positions across other

sectors, for now

Materials UWCommodities (copper, iron ore) are declining.

Renewed concerns regarding Chinese growth

Materials UWCommodities (copper, iron ore) are declining.

Renewed concerns regarding Chinese growth

Cyclical

Sectors*Neutral

Defensive

Sectors**Neutral

View/Comment

Banks OW

Steeper curves and attractive valuations on P/B

terms should offset bouts of volatility. Private

sector loan growth is increasing

Energy UW

OPEC's deal implementation (assuming a 9-

month extension) remains a risk and oil price

weakness has aggravated recently. US oil

production is increasing (at 2015 high levels)

Cyclical

Sectors*Neutral

Defensive

Sectors**Neutral

View/Comment

Banks OWRising rates support interest margins, less

regulation also positive. Neg: Loan volumes are

declining and curves are now flattenning

Energy UW

OPEC's deal implementation (assuming a 9-

month extension) remains a risk and oil price

weakness has aggravated recently. US oil

production is increasing (at 2015 high levels)

Equities Portfolio Benchmark OW/UW

US 50 52 -2,0

Euro area 12 10 2,0

UK 9 7 2,0

Rest of Dev. Europe 5 5 -

Japan 7 7 -

Rest of Dev. World 8 8 -

EM Asia 6 7 -1,0

EM Latin America 1,5 2 -0,5

EMEA 1,5 2 -0,5

Government Bonds Portfolio Benchmark OW/UW

US 49 46 3,0

US TIPS 6 6 -

Germany 12 15 -3,0

UK 7 7 -

Japan 26 26 -

Corporate Bonds Portfolio Benchmark OW/UW

US Industrials 22 32 -10,0

US Banks 22 12 10,0

US High Yield 12 12 -

EUR Industrials 5 9 -4,5

EUR Banks 14 9 4,5

EUR High Yield 4 4 -

UK Industrials 2 3 -1,5

UK Banks 5 3 1,5

Emerging Markets 16 16 -

-10

-5

0

5

10

Equities Cash Corporate Bonds GovernmentBonds

Overweight (%)

Underweight (%)

Equities: We are Overweight amidst expectations for a recovery

in global growth. O/W Euro area on declining political risks and

strong growth. O/W UK in anticipation of strong election results in

favor of incumbent PM May. O/W Banks (Euro area, US) due to

higher yields, relative valuations and regulatory reform relief.

Government Bonds: The trend of higher long-term Government

yields will re-emerge reflecting less aggressive CBs and a gradual

buildup in inflation expectations. Underweight Govies. Steeper

curves, particularly in Bunds.

Credit: Credit spreads have less fuel to run from current levels.

Underweight position in credit.

Cash: We hold an OW position in cash, as a hedge, as well as a

way of being tactical.

Notes:

(1) The orange inner half-circle of the chart displays asset class weights for the benchmark portfolio. The blue-color representation (outside half-

circle) shows asset class weights for the model portfolio.

(2) All figures shown are in percentage points.

(3) OW/UW: Overweight/Underweight relative to Benchmark.

(4) Green (red) color arrows suggest an increase (decrease) in relative asset class weights (portfolio vs benchmark) over the last week.

NBG Global Markets - Main Equity Sector Calls

Total Portfolio Allocation

Detailed Portfolio Breakdown

Tactical Asset Allocation (3-month)

NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets


5


O F G R E E C E

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US Euro Area Japan UK

Reduced short-term tail

risks

Higher core bond yields

Current account surplus

▬ Sluggish growth

▬ Deflation concerns

▬ The ECB’s monetary

policy to remain extra

loose (Targeted-LTROs,

ABSs, covered bank

bond purchases,

Quantitative Easing)

The Fed is expected to

increase its policy rate

towards 1.5% in 2017

Growth to remain slightly

above-trend in 2017

Destination-based taxation

with border adjustment

▬ Mid-2014 rally probably out

of steam

▬ Protectionism and trade

Wars

Safe haven demand

More balanced economic

growth recovery (long-

term)

Inflation is bottoming out

▬ Additional Quantitative

Easing by the Bank of

Japan if inflation does not

approach 2%

Transitions phase

negotiations

▬ The BoE to retain rates at

current levels

▬ Slowing economic growth

post-Brexit

▬ Sizeable Current account

deficit (-5.5% of GDP)

▬ Elevated Policy

uncertainty to remain due

to the outcome of the

Referendum and the

negotiating process

Upside risk in US

benchmark yields

Valuations appear

excessive compared

with long-term

fundamentals

▬ Political Risk

▬ Fragile growth outlook

▬ Medium-term inflation

expectations remain

low

▬ Gradually less

accommodative

monetary policy by the

ECB

Valuations appear rich

Underlying inflation

pressures

The Fed is expected to

increase its policy rate

towards 1,5% by end-2017

▬ Global search for yield by

non-US investors continues

▬ Fed’s commitment on

gradual tightening policy

▬ Safe haven demand

Elevated Policy



Referendum and the

negotiating process

Rich valuations

Inflation overshooting due

to GBP weakness feeds

through inflation

expectations

▬ The BoE is expected to cut

rates or/and re-activate

asset purchases

▬ Slowing economic growth

post-Brexit

Sizeable fiscal deficits

Restructuring efforts to

be financed by fiscal

policy measures

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Extremely dovish

central bank

▬ Yield-targeting of 10-

Year JGB at around 0%

Still high equity risk

premium due to policy

uncertainty

Credit conditions gradual

turn more favorable

Small fiscal loosening

▬ Sovereign debt crisis could

re-emerge

▬ EPS estimates are declining

▬ Strong Euro in NEER terms

(2016 vs 2015)

Fiscal loosening

EPS acceleration

Cash-rich corporates lead to

share buybacks and higher

dividends (de-equitization)

▬ Demanding valuations

▬ Peaking profit margins

▬ Protectionism and trade

wars

Aggressive QE by the BoJ

Upward revisions in corporate

earnings

▬ Signs of policy fatigue

regarding structural reforms

and fiscal discipline

▬ Strong appetite for foreign

assets

▬ If sustained, Japanese Yen

appreciation hurts exporters

companies

65% of FTSE100 revenues

from abroad

Undemanding valuations

in relative terms

High UK exposure to the

commodities sector

assuming the oil rally

continues

▬ Elevated Policy



Referendum and the

negotiating process

Neutral Neutral/Positive Neutral

Higher yields expected Higher yields expected

Stable yields expected

Higher yields expected

Long USD against its

major counterparts

Flat EUR against the

USD with upside risks

short term

Lower JPY against the

USD

Weaker GBP against the

EUR and the USD

Neutral/Negative

NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for South Eastern European Markets


6


O F G R E E C E

Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia

Emerging Markets Research, Head: Dr. Michael Loufir, tel:210-3341211, email: [email protected]

Fo

reig

n D

eb

t

Attractive valuations

▬ Weak foreign investor

appetite for emerging

market assets




market assets


Low-yielding domestic

debt and deposits



market assets




market assets

Eq

uit

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ets

D

om

est

ic D

eb

t Fo

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n D

eb

t Fo

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xch

an

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Turkey Romania Bulgaria Serbia

Low public debt-to-GDP

ratio

▬ Loosening fiscal stance

▬ Stubbornly high inflation

Low public debt-to-GDP

ratio

▬ Easing fiscal stance

▬ Envisaged tightening in

monetary policy

Very low public debt-to-

GDP ratio and large fiscal

reserves

Low inflation

Positive inflation outlook

Precautionary Stand-By

Agreement with the IMF

▬ Large public sector

borrowing requirements

High foreign debt yields

▬ Sizeable external

financing requirements



market assets

Strong external position

▬ Large external financing

requirements

Solidly-based currency

board arrangement, with

substantial buffers



requirements

▬ Heightened domestic

political uncertainty

Ongoing EU membership

negotiations



▬ Sizable external financing

requirements

▬ Slow progress in structural

reforms

Currency board

arrangement

Large foreign currency

reserves and fiscal

reserves



requirements

▬ Heightened domestic

political uncertainty

High domestic debt yields


requirements



market assets

▬ Increasing geopolitical risks

and domestic political

uncertainty

Strong external position


requirements

Ongoing EU membership

negotiations




requirements

Neutral/Positive stance

on equities

Neutral/Positive Stance

on equities


on equities


on equities

Stable to lower yields Stable to lower yields Stable to higher yields Stable to lower yields

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Stable to narrowing

spreads

Weaker to stable TRY

against the EUR

Stable to stronger RON

against the EUR

Stable BGN against the

EUR

Weaker to stable RSD

against EUR

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts


7


O F G R E E C E

Economic Indicators Stock Markets (in local currency)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Real GDP Growth (%) Country - Index

Turkey 4,8 8,5 5,2 6,1 2,9 3,5 Turkey - ISE100 95.588 1,9 22,3 9,1

Romania 0,6 3,5 3,1 3,9 4,8 4,0 Romania - BET-BK 1.611 3,2 19,8 16,1

Bulgaria 0,0 0,9 1,3 3,6 3,4 3,7 Bulgaria - SOFIX 656 -0,8 11,8 35,1

Serbia -1,0 2,6 -1,8 0,8 2,8 2,8 Serbia - BELEX15 729 1,8 1,6 1,0

Headline Inflation (eop,%)

Turkey 6,2 7,4 8,2 8,8 8,5 9,2

Romania 5,0 1,6 0,8 -0,9 -0,5 2,0 1-m Money Market Rate (%)

Bulgaria 4,2 -1,6 -0,9 -0,4 0,1 0,8 Turkey 12,8 12,5 11,5 10,5

Serbia 12,2 2,2 1,7 1,5 1,6 2,8 Romania 0,7 2,0 3,8 4,0

Bulgaria 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,2

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Serbia 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,8

Turkey -5,6 -6,7 -4,7 -3,7 -3,8 -4,5 Currency

Romania -4,8 -1,1 -0,7 -1,2 -2,4 -3,0 TRY/EUR 3,89 3,85 3,82 3,80

Bulgaria -0,9 1,3 0,1 0,4 3,8 3,0 RON/EUR 4,55 4,49 4,49 4,50

Serbia -11,6 -6,1 -6,0 -4,7 -4,0 -4,2 BGN/EUR 1,96 1,96 1,96 1,96

RSD/EUR 123,0 123,2 124,0 125,0

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Sovereign Eurobond Spread (in bps)

Turkey -1,9 -1,0 -1,1 -1,0 -1,1 -3,0 Turkey (USD 2020)(*) 213 205 200 180

Romania -2,5 -2,5 -1,7 -1,5 -2,4 -3,8 Romania (EUR 2024) 163 160 150 140

Bulgaria -0,4 -1,8 -3,7 -2,8 1,6 -1,0 Bulgaria (EUR 2022) 99 104 102 100

Serbia -6,8 -5,5 -6,6 -3,7 -1,4 -1,2 Serbia (USD 2021)(*) 171 165 160 150

f: NBG forecasts (*) Spread over US Treasuries

Financial Markets

Last week

return (%)15/5/2017

Year-to-Date

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

15/5/20173-month

forecast

6-month

forecast

12-month

forecast

South Eastern Europe Economic Forecasts

2015a Q1:16a Q2:16a Q3:16a Q4:16a 2016a Q1:17a Q2:17f Q3:17f Q4:17f 2017f

2,6 1,6 1,3 1,7 2,0 1,6 1,9 2,4 2,2 2,4 2,2

- 0,8 1,4 3,5 2,1 - 0,7 2,8 2,8 2,8 -

Private Consumption 3,2 1,6 4,3 3,0 3,5 2,7 0,3 2,3 2,6 3,4 2,6

Government Consumption 1,8 1,6 -1,7 0,8 0,2 0,8 -1,7 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,7

Investment 3,9 -1,1 -1,0 0,2 2,6 0,6 10,4 5,3 5,4 2,7 3,6

Residential 11,7 7,8 -7,8 -4,1 9,6 4,9 13,7 4,0 3,5 3,5 3,8

Non-residential 2,1 -3,4 1,0 1,4 0,9 -0,5 9,4 5,7 5,9 2,4 3,5

Inventories Contribution 0,2 -0,4 -1,2 0,4 1,0 -0,4 -0,9 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,1

Net Exports Contribution -0,7 0,0 0,2 0,9 -2,0 -0,1 0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,3

Exports 0,1 -0,7 1,8 10,0 -4,5 0,4 5,8 2,2 2,2 2,2 3,2

Imports 4,6 -0,6 0,2 2,2 8,9 1,1 4,1 2,2 2,2 2,6 4,7

Inflation (3) 0,1 1,1 1,0 1,1 1,8 1,3 2,5 2,6 2,7 2,7 2,7

2015a Q1:16a Q2:16a Q3:16a Q4:16a 2016a Q1:17f Q2:17f Q3:17f Q4:17f 2017f

1,9 1,7 1,6 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,6

- 2,1 1,3 1,7 1,6 - 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,8 -

Private Consumption 1,8 2,9 1,4 1,3 1,8 1,9 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7

Government Consumption 1,3 2,7 1,3 0,5 1,8 1,8 1,2 1,3 1,7 1,8 1,4

Investment 3,0 1,4 5,0 -2,7 2,3 2,5 2,8 3,2 2,6 2,6 2,2

Inventories Contribution -0,2 -0,9 -0,7 0,7 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1

Net Exports Contribution 0,2 0,5 0,0 0,7 -0,6 -0,2 -0,2 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -0,1

Exports 6,3 0,7 5,2 1,4 6,1 2,7 3,4 3,6 3,7 3,7 3,8

Imports 6,3 -0,5 5,8 -0,2 8,0 3,4 4,2 4,2 4,3 4,2 4,4

Inflation 0,0 0,0 -0,1 0,3 0,7 0,2 1,8 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,6

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)

Euro AreaReal GDP Growth (YoY)

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)

a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change

United States

Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)

Economic Forecasts

May 12th 3-month 6-month 12-month May 12th 3-month 6-month 12-month

Germany 0,39 0,40 0,50 0,70 Euro area 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

US 2,33 2,65 2,75 2,90 US 1,00 1,25 1,50 1,75

UK 1,09 1,38 1,54 1,64 UK 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25

Japan 0,05 0,05 0,07 0,11 Japan -0,10 -0,10 -0,10 -0,10

Currency May 12th 3-month 6-month 12-month May 12th 3-month 6-month 12-month

EUR/USD 1,09 1,10 1,11 1,12 USD/JPY 113 113 114 115

EUR/GBP 0,85 0,86 0,88 0,92 GBP/USD 1,29 1,29 1,26 1,22

EUR/JPY 124 124 127 129

Official Rate (%)10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)

Forecasts at end of period

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar


8


O F G R E E C E

Tuesday 9 Wednesday 10 Thursday 11

GERMANY S A P JAPAN S A P US S A P

Coincident Index March 105.5 105.5 104.7 Initial Jobless Claims (k) May 6 245 + 236 238

Leading Index March 114.7 - 114.6 115.2 Continuing Claims (k) April 29 1980 + 1918 1979

CHINA UK

CPI (YoY) April 1.1% + 1.2% 0.9% Industrial Production (MoM) March -0.4% - -0.5% -0.8%

Industrial Production (YoY) March 2.0% - 1.4% 2.5%

JAPAN

Eco Watchers Current Survey April 47.8 + 48.1 47.4

Eco Watchers Outlook Survey April 48.2 + 48.8 48.1

EURO AREA

ECB publishes its Economic

Friday 12 Monday 15

US S A P GERMANY S A P US S A P

CPI (YoY) April 2.3% - 2.2% 2.4% GDP (QoQ) Q1:17 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% Empire Manufacturing May 7.5 - -1.0 5.2

Core CPI (YoY) April 2.0% - 1.9% 2.0% GDP (wda, YoY) Q1:17 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%

Retail Sales Advance MoM April 0.6% - 0.4% 0.1% CHINA

Retail sales ex-autos (MoM) April 0.5% - 0.3% 0.3% Aggregate Financing (RMB bn) April 1150.0 + 1390.0 2118.9

New Yuan Loans (RMB bn) April 815.0 + 1100.0 1020.0

Money Supply M0 (YoY) April 6.8% 6.2% 6.1% CHINA

EURO AREA Money Supply M1 (YoY) April 17.3% 18.5% 18.8% Retail sales (YoY) April 10.9% - 10.7% 10.9%

March Money Supply M2 (YoY) April 10.8% 10.5% 10.6% Industrial production (YoY) April 7.0% - 6.5% 7.6%

Tuesday 16 Wednesday 17 Thursday 18

US S A P UK S A P US S A P

Housing starts (k) April 1260 .. 1215 ILO Unemployment Rate March 4.7% .. 4.7% Initial Jobless Claims (k) May 13 .. .. ..

Building permits (k) April 1270 .. 1267 Continuing Claims (k) May 6 .. .. ..

Industrial Production (MoM) April 0.4% .. 0.5%

Mortgage delinquencies Q1:17 .. .. 4.80%

Mortgage foreclosures Q1:17 .. .. 1.53% UK

UK Retail sales Ex Auto MoM April .. .. -1.5%

CPI (YoY) April 2.6% .. 2.3% JAPAN

CPI Core (YoY) April 2.3% .. 1.8% GDP (QoQ) Q1:17 0.5% .. 0.3%

EURO AREA GDP Private Consumption Q1:17 0.5% .. 0.0%

GDP (QoQ) Q1:17 0.5% .. 0.5% GDP Business Spending (QoQ) Q1:17 -0.4% .. 2.0%

GDP (YoY) Q1:17 1.7% .. 1.7%

GERMANY

ZEW survey current situation May 82.0 .. 80.1

ZEW survey expectations May 22.0 .. 19.5

Friday 19 Monday 22

EURO AREA S A P JAPAN S A P

Consumer Confidence Indicator May -3.0 .. -3.6 Exports YoY April .. .. 12.0%

Imports YoY April .. .. 15.8%


S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome

-0.1%-0.1%0.3%

+

-0.7%Industrial Production (sa, MoM)

Industrial Production (wda, YoY) March

March

-

-

University of Michigan consumer

confidence

Industrial Production (sa, MoM)

May

1.4%

2.5% 1.9% 2.0%

BoE announces its intervention

rate

-

-

97.0 97.7 97.0

Industrial Production (wda, YoY) March 2.3% 1.9%

Economic News Calendar for the period: May 9 - May 22, 2017

+

Net Long-term TIC Flows ($ bn)

NAHB housing market

confidence indexMay

March

May 11 0.25%

59.8 53.1

687068

0.25%

Philadelphia Fed Business

OutlookMay 19.4 .. 22.0

-0.4% 1.8%

..

0.25%

Bank of England Inflation Report

The key macro events next week include the housing and industrial

production data for April in the US. Industrial production is expected at

0.4% mom in April from 0.5% mom in March.

In the euro area, markets will focus on the GDP announcement for

Q1:17. Growth is expected to remain unchanged compared with the 1st

estimate (final data is due at June 8th).

UK labor data for March is released on Wednesday. Consensus expects

the unemployment rate stable at 4.7%.

In Japan, the first estimate for Q1:17 GDP growth is released. GDP is

expected at 0.5% qoq in Q1:17, from 0.3% qoq in Q4:16.

Economic Calendar

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

Ma

r-1

4

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Euro area real GDP (QoQ, left)Euro area real GDP (YoY right)%


%

Euro Area GDP

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor


9


O F G R E E C E

Developed MarketsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)Emerging Markets

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

US S&P 500 2391 -0,3 6,8 15,8 13,9 MSCI Emerging Markets 53474 2,2 12,2 20,7 1,3

Japan NIKKEI 225 19884 2,3 4,0 19,4 0,6 MSCI Asia 793 2,3 14,6 24,4 0,4

UK FTSE 100 7435 1,9 4,1 21,8 7,0 China 70 3,7 19,0 30,3 -13,2

Canada S&P/TSX 15538 -0,3 1,6 12,7 3,7 Korea 672 2,2 15,7 27,0 17,5

Hong Kong Hang Seng 25156 2,8 14,3 26,3 -7,7 MSCI Latin America 79595 2,4 10,7 17,3 11,4

Euro area EuroStoxx 390 -0,5 11,4 23,8 6,1 Brazil 233824 3,9 12,1 23,2 12,7

Germany DAX 30 12770 0,4 11,2 29,5 12,5 Mexico 46297 -0,2 7,2 7,4 8,4

France CAC 40 5405 -0,5 11,2 25,9 8,9 MSCI Europe 4975 0,5 0,2 10,5 0,3

Italy FTSE/MIB 21575 0,4 12,2 22,2 -7,0 Russia 882 -0,2 -11,8 3,7 7,6

Spain IBEX-35 10897 -2,1 16,5 25,8 -3,8 Turkey 1334111 1,3 22,1 20,5 9,9

Equity Markets (in local currency)

in US Dollar termsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)in local currency

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

Energy 203,7 0,7 -7,0 4,4 -15,7 Energy 211,0 0,8 -7,6 7,6 -11,4

Materials 235,7 -0,8 6,2 19,1 -1,2 Materials 228,4 -0,5 4,5 23,0 3,3

Industrials 232,4 -0,9 9,4 17,1 11,9 Industrials 233,1 -0,6 7,9 19,9 13,8

Consumer Discretionary 216,2 -0,4 10,1 14,5 8,4 Consumer Discretionary 211,3 -0,2 8,8 16,9 10,1

Consumer Staples 226,6 0,2 9,2 3,4 9,5 Consumer Staples 229,1 0,5 7,8 6,4 14,1

Healthcare 213,9 0,0 11,0 8,0 -1,7 Healthcare 213,2 0,2 10,0 9,9 0,8

Financials 111,2 -1,2 4,8 22,5 4,3 Financials 112,8 -1,0 3,6 25,5 8,2

IT 189,7 1,0 17,7 35,0 28,9 IT 184,6 1,1 17,2 35,9 29,1

Telecoms 69,1 0,3 -0,6 -4,5 -4,6 Telecoms 73,0 0,6 -2,1 -1,5 -1,0

Utilities 123,9 0,0 7,7 3,0 5,3 Utilities 128,1 0,2 6,6 5,4 8,5

World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

average

Government Bond Yield

Spreads (in bps)Current Last week Year Start

One Year

Back

10-year

average

US 2,33 2,35 2,45 1,70 2,73 US Treasuries 10Y/2Y 104 104 126 95 176

Germany 0,39 0,42 0,21 0,12 2,07 US Treasuries 10Y/5Y 48 47 52 50 90

Japan 0,05 0,02 0,05 -0,11 0,87 Bunds 10Y/2Y 107 109 97 64 120

UK 1,09 1,12 1,24 1,38 2,80 Bunds 10Y/5Y 71 72 74 51 72

Greece 5,68 5,84 7,11 7,42 10,26

Ireland 0,86 0,88 0,75 0,81 4,50

Italy 2,24 2,16 1,81 1,47 3,78

Spain 1,63 1,56 1,38 1,60 3,78 EM Inv. Grade (IG) 159 160 181 210 270

Portugal 3,37 3,39 3,76 3,16 5,47 EM High yield 436 434 510 742 816

US IG 118 121 129 157 202

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

averageUS High yield 377 382 421 641 643

30-Year FRM1 (%) 4,2 4,2 4,4 3,8 4,5 Euro area IG 106 109 124 129 169

vs 30Yr Treasury (bps) 124 125 132 127 99 Euro area High Yield 307 312 376 479 666

10-Year Government

Bond Yields

US Mortgage Market

(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)

One Year

Back

10-year

average

Corporate Bond Spreads

(in bps)Current Last week Year Start

Bond Markets (%)

Current1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)Commodities Current

1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

Euro-based cross rates

EUR/USD 1,09 -0,6 2,5 -3,9 3,9 Agricultural 418 0,1 -1,2 -11,8 -3,0

EUR/CHF 1,09 0,7 2,3 -0,9 2,1 Energy 372 3,5 -9,3 -7,3 -14,4

EUR/GBP 0,85 0,1 -0,3 7,7 -0,6 West Texas Oil ($) 48 3,5 -9,9 2,4 -10,9

EUR/JPY 123,89 0,0 6,6 -0,1 0,7 Crude brent Oil ($) 50 2,9 -8,1 6,0 -9,2

EUR/NOK 9,36 -1,0 2,6 1,2 2,9 Industrial Metals 1158 -0,7 -1,6 20,5 3,2

EUR/SEK 9,65 -0,3 0,8 3,7 0,8 Precious Metals 1490 0,2 -4,7 -4,6 5,8

EUR/AUD 1,48 -0,2 4,4 -4,7 1,4 Gold ($) 1228 0,5 -4,6 -2,8 6,6

EUR/CAD 1,50 -0,1 6,0 2,6 6,0 Silver ($) 16 0,8 -10,9 -3,0 3,5

USD-based cross rates Baltic Dry Index 1014 2,0 -20,9 75,1 5,5

USD/CAD 1,37 0,4 3,4 6,7 2,0 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 741 -4,3 -6,2 1,2 -19,4

USD/AUD 1,35 0,5 1,8 -0,9 -2,5

USD/JPY 113,34 0,6 4,0 4,0 -3,1

Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, as of May 12th, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy, Industrial &

Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


10


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets

Under Management, Data as of May 12th

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for

Assets Under Management, Data as of May 12th

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

DM Equities EM Equities

Bonds Commodities% %

Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 12th – Rebased @ 100

Source: Bloomberg, Data as May 12th

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 12th – Rebased @ 100

Source: Bloomberg, Data as May 12th

94

9698100

102104

106108110

112114

116118

120122124

94

9698

100

102104

106108110

112114

116118

120122124

10-N

ov

24-N

ov

8-D

ec

22-D

ec

5-Ja

n

19-J

an

2-Fe

b

16-F

eb

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30-M

ar

13-A

pr

27-A

pr

11-M

ay

S&P500 EuroStoxx FTSE 100 Nikkei 225

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

10-N

ov

24

-No

v

8-D

ec

22

-Dec

5-Ja

n

19

-Jan

2-Fe

b

16

-Feb

2-M

ar

16

-Mar

30-M

ar

13

-Ap

r

27-A

pr

11

-May

Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance (right)Russell 2000-Small cap (left)Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)

Equity Market Performance - G4 Equity Market Performance - BRICs

Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index

Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-14

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

5

Jul-

15

Oct

-15

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

US Emerging Markets Europe exUK% %

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

10-N

ov

24-N

ov

8-D

ec

22-D

ec

5-Ja

n

19-J

an

2-Fe

b

16-F

eb

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30-M

ar

13-A

pr

27-A

pr

11-M

ay

Brazil Russia China India

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

10

-No

v

24

-No

v

8-D

ec

22

-Dec

5-J

an

19

-Jan

2-F

eb

16

-Feb

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30

-Mar

13-A

pr

27

-Ap

r

11

-May

Value/Growth Relative Performance (right)Russell 2000 Value (left)Russell 2000 Growth (left)

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


11


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 12th Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 12th

1,03

1,05

1,07

1,09

1,11

1,13

1,03

1,05

1,07

1,09

1,11

1,13

10

-No

v

24

-No

v

8-D

ec

22-D

ec

5-J

an

19

-Jan

2-F

eb

16

-Feb

2-M

ar

16

-Mar

30

-Mar

13-A

pr

27

-Ap

r

11

-May

EUR-USD $$

Stronger USD

EUR/USD

JPY/USD

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 12th

LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 12th

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of May 12th

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of May 12th

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

10-N

ov

24-N

ov

8-D

ec

22-D

ec

5-Ja

n

19-J

an

2-F

eb

16-F

eb

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30-M

ar

13-A

pr

27-A

pr

11-M

ay

US (LA) UK (LA) Japan (RA) Germany (RA) %%

1.120

1.170

1.220

1.270

1.320

1.120

1.170

1.220

1.270

1.320

10-N

ov

24-N

ov

8-D

ec

22-D

ec

5-Ja

n

19-J

an

2-Fe

b

16-F

eb

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30-M

ar

13-A

pr

27-A

pr

11-M

ay

Gold $/ounch$/ounch

10- Year Government Bond Yields 10- Year Government Bond Spreads

West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)

Gold ($/ounch)

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

10

-No

v

24

-No

v

8-D

ec

22

-Dec

5-Ja

n

19

-Jan

2-F

eb

16

-Feb

2-M

ar

16

-Mar

30

-Mar

13

-Ap

r

27

-Ap

r

11

-May

JPY-USD ¥¥

Stronger USD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

10-N

ov

24-N

ov

8-D

ec

22-D

ec

5-Ja

n

19-J

an

2-F

eb

16-F

eb

2-M

ar

16-M

ar

30-M

ar

13-A

pr

27-A

pr

11-M

ay

Ireland Italy Portugal Spain bpsbps

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

14-N

ov

28-N

ov

12-D

ec

26-D

ec

9-Ja

n

23-J

an

6-Fe

b

20-F

eb

6-M

ar

20-M

ar

3-A

pr

17-A

pr

1-M

ay

15-M

ay

WTI $/brl$/brl

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


12


O F G R E E C E

US Sectors Valuation

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ind

ust

rial

s

Fin

anci

als

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary IT

S&P

50

0

Hea

lth

Car

e

Re

al E

stat

e

Mat

eri

als

Uti

litie

s

Ener

gy

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Tele

com

2017

12-month forward

%

1-month revisions to 2017 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2017 & 12-month Forward EPS

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

IT

Fin

anci

als

Uti

litie

s

Ener

gy

S&P

50

0

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Re

al E

stat

e

Ind

ust

rial

s

Mat

eri

als

Hea

lth

Car

e

Tele

com

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

2017

12-month forward

%

110%


12/5/2017 % Weekly Change 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2016 2017 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

S&P500 2391 -0,3 1,2 10,5 2,0 2,1 19,9 18,2 17,5 14,1 3,1 2,9 2,9 2,2

Energy 497 0,4 -73,9 281,5 2,7 2,9 123,0 30,9 27,4 18,5 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,8

Materials 330 -1,7 -3,6 12,9 2,0 2,1 20,5 18,3 17,6 14,6 4,0 3,6 3,5 2,7

Financials

Diversified Financials 551 -1,7 5,7 11,1 1,3 1,5 18,1 15,5 14,9 13,5 1,8 1,6 1,6 1,5

Banks 287 -0,8 1,1 11,0 1,8 2,2 15,3 13,2 12,7 12,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 0,9

Insurance 363 -1,6 -4,2 23,9 2,0 2,2 16,0 12,8 12,5 9,9 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,0

Real Estate 193 -1,3 8,3 2,8 4,0 3,5 18,9 17,9 17,5 17,3 2,9 2,9 2,9 2,5

Industrials

Capital Goods 614 -1,2 4,7 7,4 2,2 2,4 20,6 19,4 18,7 14,6 4,7 4,6 4,5 2,8

Transportation 631 -0,9 -7,9 2,3 1,6 1,8 16,0 15,5 14,9 14,2 4,5 4,0 3,8 2,9

Commercial Services 243 -1,4 8,3 4,4 1,6 1,7 23,0 21,7 21,1 17,9 4,6 4,2 4,1 3,0

Consumer Discretionary

Retailing 1516 0,0 11,1 9,0 1,0 1,0 30,0 29,3 27,9 19,1 9,5 9,1 8,7 4,6

Media 545 -1,7 3,3 8,9 1,2 1,4 20,6 18,8 18,0 14,8 3,2 3,0 2,9 2,1

Consumer Services 968 0,3 9,8 13,1 2,2 2,0 22,9 22,6 21,7 17,2 11,2 12,4 12,2 5,2

Consumer Durables 297 1,4 11,7 5,9 1,7 1,8 17,6 16,8 16,3 16,8 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,9

Automobiles and parts 121 -1,3 10,6 -2,7 4,2 3,9 7,6 7,3 7,2 8,6 1,8 1,5 1,4 1,8

IT

Technology 955 2,8 -2,9 7,8 1,9 1,9 15,3 15,5 15,0 12,7 4,0 4,1 3,9 2,8

Software & Services 1328 0,0 11,3 7,7 1,0 1,0 23,4 23,3 22,2 15,4 5,5 5,3 5,0 3,7

Semiconductors 762 2,7 12,9 22,1 2,0 2,1 17,5 15,3 14,9 16,9 3,7 3,6 3,5 2,7

Consumer Staples

Food & Staples Retailing 378 -1,0 1,1 2,3 2,1 2,2 17,7 17,5 17,1 15,0 3,2 3,1 3,1 2,6

Food Beverage & Tobacco 704 -0,4 8,4 7,0 2,7 2,9 23,3 21,8 21,2 16,5 6,3 5,4 5,5 4,7

Household Goods 558 -0,3 1,6 4,1 2,6 2,9 24,1 22,4 21,8 17,6 6,4 5,0 5,0 4,2

Health Care

Pharmaceuticals 778 -1,3 6,3 2,7 2,0 2,2 16,2 15,6 15,1 13,8 4,3 4,0 3,9 3,1

Healthcare Equipment 906 -0,4 9,7 9,6 1,0 1,0 18,7 17,6 17,0 13,7 3,2 3,2 3,1 2,4

Telecom 157 -0,6 -7,4 -1,2 4,5 5,0 14,0 13,1 13,0 13,2 2,9 2,6 2,5 2,2

Utilities 262 -0,3 6,7 -0,9 3,4 3,6 18,0 18,1 17,7 14,2 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,5

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

EPS Growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) P/E Ratio P/BV RatioPrice ($)


12-month forward EPS are 64% of 2017 EPS and 36% of 2018 EPS



NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


13


O F G R E E C E

Europe Sectors Valuation

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ch

em

ical

sA

uto

s an

d p

arts

Ban

ksTr

ave

l an

d L

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du

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alM

ed

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chn

olo

gyR

eta

ilST

OX

X E

uro

pe

60

0Fi

n/a

l Ser

vice

sU

tilit

ies

Mat

eri

als

Ho

use

ho

ld G

oo

ds

Bas

ic R

eso

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es

Insu

ran

ceH

ealt

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are

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leco

mFo

od

&B

eve

rage

Re

al E

stat

e

2017

12-month Forward

%


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Ch

em

ical

sA

uto

s an

d p

arts

Ban

ksTr

ave

l an

d L

eisu

reIn

du

stri

alM

ed

iaTe

chn

olo

gyR

eta

ilST

OX

X E

uro

pe

60

0Fi

n/a

l Ser

vice

sU

tilit

ies

Mat

eri

als

Ho

use

ho

ld G

oo

ds

Bas

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Insu

ran

ceH

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eve

rage

Re

al E

stat

e2017

12-month Forward

%


12/5/2017 % Weekly Change 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2016 2017 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

STOXX Europe 600 396 0,3 -4,3 18,6 3,3 3,3 18,1 16,0 15,8 12,5 1,8 1,9 1,9 1,6

Energy 323 1,4 -30,7 77,7 5,5 5,2 27,1 15,7 14,8 10,8 1,2 1,3 1,2 1,3

Materials 474 -1,9 16,9 13,6 2,7 2,6 20,0 18,9 18,1 13,8 1,9 2,0 1,9 1,5

Basic Resources 389 -0,1 271,8 78,6 2,2 3,8 21,7 11,2 11,5 12,5 1,5 1,3 1,3 1,4

Chemicals 951 -0,7 -1,2 11,3 2,7 2,7 18,5 17,8 17,4 13,9 2,6 2,6 2,5 2,2

Financials

Fin/al Services 490 1,0 7,6 3,9 3,3 3,1 15,6 17,0 16,7 12,8 1,7 1,9 1,9 1,3

Banks 188 -1,2 -39,3 57,5 4,2 4,0 18,2 12,8 12,4 10,4 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,9

Insurance 281 -0,9 3,8 1,1 4,8 4,8 11,2 11,5 11,3 9,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,0

Real Estate 181 2,4 6,2 4,5 3,7 3,7 20,7 21,2 20,8 18,1 1,0 1,1 1,1 1,0

Industrial 523 -1,1 2,9 12,1 2,6 2,5 19,5 18,8 18,1 13,9 3,3 3,3 3,2 2,3

Consumer Discretionary

Media 293 0,4 -0,8 11,0 3,2 3,2 18,6 17,4 16,9 14,0 3,0 3,0 3,0 2,4

Retail 326 0,9 1,6 7,2 2,6 2,6 20,5 20,4 19,6 15,7 2,8 2,8 2,7 2,4

Automobiles and parts 571 -0,2 16,0 15,5 3,0 3,2 9,4 8,5 8,3 9,4 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,0

Travel and Leisure 264 0,7 2,7 9,8 2,5 2,4 15,1 15,1 14,6 14,6 2,9 2,9 2,8 2,1

Technology 426 0,5 -2,0 11,9 1,5 1,5 23,5 23,0 21,8 16,5 3,1 3,2 3,1 2,6

Consumer Staples

Food&Beverage 667 1,1 -4,5 10,3 2,8 2,7 23,5 22,7 22,0 16,8 3,2 3,4 3,3 2,7

Household Goods 896 0,4 5,4 13,3 2,5 2,5 22,2 21,2 20,5 16,3 4,5 4,4 4,3 3,2

Health care 801 2,7 5,9 3,7 2,8 2,7 18,0 18,5 17,9 14,0 3,6 3,8 3,7 3,0

Telecom 304 1,3 1,9 12,3 4,8 4,1 19,8 18,6 17,7 13,2 1,8 2,0 2,0 1,6

Utilities 299 0,5 -8,8 -1,8 5,3 4,8 13,3 14,5 14,3 12,3 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,4

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

EPS Growth (%) Dividend Yield (%) P/E Ratio P/BV RatioPrice (€)





NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification


14


O F G R E E C E

DISCLOSURES:

This report has been produced by the Economic Research Division of the National Bank of Greece, which is regulated by the Bank

of Greece, and is provided solely as a sheer reference for the information of experienced and sophisticated investors who are

expected and considered to be fully able to make their own investment decisions without reliance on its contents, i.e. only after

effecting their own independent enquiry from sources of the investors’ sole choice. The information contained in this report does

not constitute the provision of investment advice and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer or an

invitation to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer or invitation to buy or sell or enter into any agreement with respect to any

security, product, service or investment. No information or opinion contained in this report shall constitute any representation or

warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure. Past

performance is not necessarily a reliable guide to future performance. National Bank of Greece and/or its affiliates shall not be

liable in any matter whatsoever for any consequences (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss

of profits and damages) of any reliance on or usage of this report and accepts no legal responsibility to any investor who directly

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Any data provided in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified.

Because of the possibility of error on the part of such sources, National Bank of Greece does not guarantee the accuracy,

timeliness or usefulness of any information. Information and opinions contained in this report are subject to change without

notice and there is no obligation to update the information and opinions contained in this report. The National Bank of Greece

and its affiliate companies, its representatives, its managers and/or its personnel or other persons related to it, accept no

responsibility, or liability as to the accuracy, or completeness of the information contained in this report, or for any loss in general

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National Bank of Greece has prepared and published this report wholly independently of any of its affiliates and thus any

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION:

The research analyst denoted by an “AC” on page 1 holds the certificate (type Δ) of the Hellenic Capital Market Commission/Bank

of Greece which allows her/him to conduct market analysis and reporting and hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in

this report accurately reflect his or her personal views solely, about any and all of the subject issues. Further, each of these

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