National Bank of Canada_State of Residential Construction in Canada_Economics Weekly

8/9/2019 National Bank of Canada_State of Residential Construction in Canada_Economics Weekly

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August 6, 2010

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP 514.879.2529Stfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist

General: National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained fromsources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy orsell the securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residentsshould contact their NBF Investment advisor.U.S. Residents: NBF Securities (USA) Corp., an affiliate of NBF, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report, subject to any terms set out above. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactionin any security discussed herein should do so only through NBF Securities (USA) Corp. UK Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF has approved this financial promotion for the purposes of Section 21(1) of theFinancial Services and Markets Act 2000. NBF and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long oshort positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted asinvestment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to privatcustomers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connectiowith any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to non-private customers in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright: This report manot be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of

National Bank Financial.

Topic of the weekUnlike the United States, which went through ahousing crisis, Canada saw its residentialconstruction sector make a spectacular recovery.Indeed, construction employment is now only 3%shy of its 2008 peak and residential constructiontoday accounts for a very high proportion of theCanadian economy on a historical basis. Whatsmore, this proportion is presently greater than itsU.S. counterpart was even at the height of thehousing bubble south of the border. Based on theaverage annual household formation rate of 174Kfor the period from 2001 and 2006, the level of

housing starts observed in Canada since the start of2010 might appear unsustainable. However,according to our estimates, the household formationrate should have accelerated since the last censusand should even have reached 212K in 2009.Moreover, we expect household formation toaverage 200K annually on a 5-year horizon. This isgood news for the residential construction sectorover the medium term. However despite floor-levelmortgage rates, the resale market is on the verge ofreverting to a buyers market, a situation that coulddrive housing starts to a level below demographicneeds in the short term. Given the normalization ofinterest rates under way, record-high home pricesand the end of a season of earlier-than-planned

home purchases in Canada, we can indeed expectactivity to decline in the next 12 to 18 months.Fortunately, Canadian demographics remainsupportive for residential construction over themedium term.

Economic indicators review (p. 5)

Things to watchEconomic calendar and significant earningsannouncements of the week ahead (p. 6)

Economic tables (p. 7)

Residential construction in Canada:cyclical challenges, structurally sound

Summary

The residential construction sector recorded negative growthin the past three months, its first signs of losing steam sincethe start of this recovery.

The pullback comes on the heels of a strong reboundEmployment in construction is only 3% shy of its 2008 peakand the portion of the economy accounted for by residentiaconstruction is very high on a historical basis. The situationin Canada is poles apart from the one in the United States

where the sector is still seeking to get over a housing crisis. Since the beginning of the 2000s, the annual rate of housing

starts in Canada has averaged 201K. It is presently at 199Ksince the start of 2010. Such a level of activity might let usfear the worst insofar as, according to the latest availablecensus data, the annual average household formation rate inCanada stood at 174K from 2001 and 2006.

However, based on our forecast model, household formationshould have picked up sharply since 2006, peaking in 2009 a212K. From 2010 to 2015, household fo rmation should recorda sustained annual average of 200K.

While demographics remain a positive factor for theresidential construction sector in Canada over the mediumterm, there are headwinds ahead in the short term. Despite

floor-level mortgage rates, the resale market is on the vergeof reverting to a buyers market, a situation that could meanseeing housing starts drop to a level below demographicneeds in the short term.

Solving an enigma

Since the beginning of the 2000s, the annual rate ofhousing starts in Canada has averaged 201K. As ithappens, based on the 2001 and 2006 census surveysthe annual household formation rate averaged only 174KWhile several factors might explain a short-term gap

between this demographic statistic and housing starts, thefact remains that the level of activity observed since 2006in Canada exceeds the formation of households from2001 to 2006, if we exclude the recent recession. Since2009, the rebound observed in construction and related


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WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER

August 6, 2010

employment has been impressive in Canada and standsin stark contrast with the situation south of the border. At atime when the resale market is softening and constructionactivity is beginning to flag, it is tempting to say that theheydays of residential real estate are gone, especially with

interest rates now normalizing. However, while a coolingperiod is surely to be expected in the short term, themedium-term outlook infuses us with a certain degree ofoptimism.

Construction losing steam

Since the recession trough, the construction sector hasgrown at a rate far above the average for the othersectors. Construction has been a key sector in the presentrecovery but it is now showing signs of losing steam, asevidenced by a negative 3-month growth rate (Chart 1).

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NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)

1) Construction sector beginning to sagMonthly GDP at factor costs

3-month growth (%)

Construction

Total GDP

If we break down the construction sector, we note that thesegment most affected over this period was residentialconstruction (Chart 2). Indeed, it is down 2.3% over threemonths while non-residential construction, instead, is up1.7%. Civil engineering construction, for its part, is downas well (-0.9%).

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2) Sharper decline for residential sectorMonthly GDP at factor costs

3-month growth (%)

Residential

Non-

residential

Civil engineering

We must bear in mind that this decline comes on the heelsof a very impressive rebound in this sector. During the last

recession, 30% of the 417K jobs lost occurred in theconstruction sector (Chart 3). Since that trough, 23% othe job gains have been in this sector. As a resultemployment in construction is now only 3% shy of itshistorical peak.


3) Solid rebound in construction employmentEmployment trend by sector since 2008

Sectors

Jobs lost as %

of total losses

(417K)

Jobs gained as

% of total gains

(403K)

Agriculture 1% -5%

Forest., fish. & trap., mining, oil & gas 6% 3%

Utilities 1% 1%

Construction 30% 23%

Manufacturing 50% -6%

Trade 5% 17%

Transportation 13% -3%

Finance, Insurance, Real estate -7% 6%

Health, education, pubblic admin. 11% 44%

Other services -10% 21%

*Because of rounding, totals may not add up to 100%

Poles apart from United States

Monetary easing by the Bank of Canada certainlycontributed to revive activity in residential real estate, as itdrove mortgage rates to historical lows. Instead, the Fedwhich has had to deal with a housing crisis, has notmanaged to stimulate activity in the sector. As a resultover the past decade, while employment in construction isdown more than 15% in the United States, it is up morethan 50% in Canada (Chart 4).

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4) Very distinct situationsConstruction employment

Index: 2000 = 100

United States

Canada

If we take a look at the portion of the economyrepresented by construction, the situations are markedlydifferent as well. Whereas construction accounts for lessthan 2.5% of the economy in the United States, itrepresents nearly 7% in Canada. Whats more, even atthe height of the U.S. housing bubble, the constructionsector in the United States just barely cleared 6%. It needbe said that, from a historical perspective, the Canadianeconomy has always had a proportionally large


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August 6, 2010

construction segment. However, the gap with the UnitedStates has never been as wide as it is today. Does thismean that we should expect a reallocation of resources inthe Canadian economy, characterized by a contraction ofthe construction sector?

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


5) Very high proportion on historical basisResidential construction as % of GDP

3-month growth (%)

United States

Canada

Housing starts in line with household formation?

Well, as it turns out, actually, housing starts have recentlyclimbed back over the 200K mark on an annual basiswhereas the latest available data for Canada suggest thathousehold formation averaged 174K annually from 2001to 2006. In Chart 6, we can see that, historically, the levelof housing starts has been in line with the householdformation rate, although the former can diverge from thelatter for brief periods. What, then, explains these short-term gaps?

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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and CMHC)

6) Have housing starts outpaced household formationsince 2006?Household formation and housing starts in Canada

000

Household formation

Housing starts

Overall, the 1990s were a period when housing startslagged behind household formation. The opposite wastrue in the following decade. Part of the answer is to befound over by the resale market, the two markets beingcommunicating vessels (Chart 7). Indeed, the data showthat the ratio of new listings to sales was very high(surplus of homes for sale) in the 1990s whereas it was

very low (shortage of homes for sale) in the 2000s, aleast until 2008.

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7) Does imbalance in resale market explain gap?Resale market and housing starts in Canada

000

Ratio of new listingsto sales (L)

Housingstarts (R)

No guarantee past will be repeated

As it happens, the ratio of new listings to sales indicatesthat the market has been balanced since the start of 2010but that it is now leaning towards a buyers market (Char8). Under the circumstances, housing starts grazing the200K mark since the start of the year would appear to bedisproportionate relative to demographic needs asestimated on the basis of the 2001-2006 period.

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30

4050

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88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

Buyers market

Sellers market

Ratio of new listings to sales

(000)

Ratio

Sales

New listings

Balanced market

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via CREA)

8) Headed for buyers market?Resale market

In order to gain a better idea of the situation regardinghousehold formation since 2006 and to make projectionsthrough 2015, we applied the rates of household

maintainers by age group from the 2006 census toStatistics Canadas population projections by cohor(demographic assumptions for 2006-2008). The results oour estimates are very interesting. They indicate that theannual household formation rate should be up sharplyrelative to the average for 2001-2006 and would havepeaked in 2009 at over 212K (Chart 9). Furthermore, theprojected average for the period from 2010 to 2015 isestimated at 200K, which doubtless constitutes good newsfor activity in the construction sector over the mediumterm.


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August 6, 2010

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via CMHC and NBFG projection)

9) Good news from household formationHousehold formation

Census NBFG projections

Short-term turbulence

Recently, 5-year mortgage rates fell to their lowest ever in

Canadian history and have not budged much since. Themonetary easing campaign bore fruit in that it renderedhousing more affordable, thereby stimulating both thenew- and existing-home markets. In turn, increasedhousehold borrowing capacity caused home prices to risesharply. As a result, prices have topped their 2008 peak(Chart 10). It is clear to our eyes that the circumstanceshave encouraged earlier-than-planned purchases, and thiscould undermine future starts.

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1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

*Average resale price before 1999 (Teranet weighting), Teranet National Bank Indexthereafter

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and CREA)

10) Historically low rates have driven home prices upMortgage rate and average home price

Average home price (L)*

5-year mortgage rate

$ thousands %

Despite floor-level interest rates, the steep increase inhome prices has resulted in a very wide gap between the

monthly mortgage payment for an average-priced homeand the average cost of rent (Chart 11). The differencebetween the two is important in that renting represents thealternative for new potential buyers. Does the gap, then,explain the recent drop in sales observed in the resalemarket? Probably. We are of a mind that the interest ratenormalization campaign undertaken by the Bank ofCanada could eventually keep the resale market in a zonefavourable to buyers (i.e. little pressure on prices). Asmentioned earlier, such a context could mean that housing

starts will remain below the household formation rate ovethe next 12 to 18 months.

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600

1,000

1,400

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2,600

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

*Mortgage payment on average-priced home (CREA before 1999, Teranet-NationalBank Index thereafter), at 5-year mortgage rate and 25-year amortization period

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via CREA, CMHC, Statistics Canada)

11) Gap a concern in light of current ratesAverage rent for 3-bed. apt. vs. monthly mortgage payment in Canada

Ratio

$

Average rent for 3-bed. apt. 6 large cities (R)

Mortgage payment onaverage-priced home (R)*

Payment/rent ratio (L)

ConclusionUnlike the United States, which went through a housingcrisis, Canada saw its residential construction sector makea spectacular recovery. Indeed, construction employmenis now only 3% shy of its 2008 peak and residentiaconstruction today accounts for a very high proportion othe Canadian economy on a historical basis. Whats morethis proportion is presently greater than its U.Scounterpart was even at the height of the housing bubblesouth of the border. Based on the average annuahousehold formation rate of 174K for the period from 2001and 2006, the level of housing starts observed in Canadasince the start of 2010 might appear unsustainable

However, according to our estimates, the householdformation rate should have accelerated since the lascensus and should even have reached 212K in 2009Moreover, we expect household formation to average200K annually on a 5-year horizon. This is good news fothe residential construction sector over the medium term.

However despite floor-level mortgage rates, the resalemarket is on the verge of reverting to a buyers market, asituation that could drive housing starts to a level belowdemographic needs in the short term. Given thenormalization of interest rates under way, record-highhome prices and the end of a season of earlier-than-planned home purchases in Canada, we can indeedexpect activity to decline in the next 12 to 18 monthsFortunately, Canadian demographics remain supportivefor residential construction over the medium term.

Matthieu Arseneau Economist

514 879-5149 [email protected]


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ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEWbyPaul-Andr Pinsonnaul

August 6, 2010 5

Canada In July, the Canadian labour market lost 9.3K jobs.This did not come as an utter surprise after the whopping 226.6K

jobs created in the previous three months. Wide swings were

observed with 139K full-time jobs lost and 130K part-time jobsgained. Educational services accounted for about half the losses

(-65.3K). On a positive note, the 51.3K jobs lost in overall services

were nearly entirely offset by strong gains in the goods-production

sector. Manufacturing, a highly cyclical industry, created 28.5K

jobs, its best showing in 26 months. With such a steep drop in full-

time jobs, we might have expected the wage bill to decline on the

month, but this was not the case. Hours worked rose 0.3% while

the average hourly wage rate climbed 0.6% on a seasonally

adjusted basis. Thus, with only one month completed in the

quarter, the wage bill was up already an impressive 3.2% on an

annualized q/q basis. This bodes well for consumption going

forward. Despite the negative headlines, this mornings report in no

way reflects weakness in the Canadian labour market.United States Anecdotal evidence from the Beige Booksuggesting manufacturing activity continued to expand in July

while overall activity slowed was confirmed by the ISM

Manufacturing Index, which slid to 55.5 after peaking at 60.4 in

April. New orders, a leading indicator for manufacturing activity,

registered a second monthly decline, slumping to 53.5 after

attaining 65.7 in May. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fared

better than expected, however, inching up half a point to 54.3 over

the previous month.

Still in July, total nonfarm payroll employment decreased by

131,000. June job losses were revised upward from 125,000 to

231,000. Census-related layoffs in July came close to expectationswhile private payroll employment jumped 71,000 after springing

31,000 the month before. Though the labour report was

disappointing, we should not overlook the fact that average weekly

hours worked were up and average hourly earnings increased by

0.2% month over month. Under the circumstances, the private

wage bill continued to grow, which suggests that talk about the risk

of the U.S. economy double-dipping is overblown. The

unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%

In June, both personal spending and income remained unchanged.

This was the first time since September 2009 that personal income

failed to grow. However, given that tax payments decreased, after-

tax income actually rose slightly. With the personal consumption

deflator slipping 0.1% on the month, real spending edged up 0.1%

although the nominal figure stayed flat. Over the past 12 months,

the core PCE deflator jumped 1.4%. The saving rate hit 6.4%, a

new 12-month high. As consumer deleveraging proceeds,

spending in coming months should have the room to grow in line

with income.

In June, factory orders fell 1.2% for a second consecutive monthly

drop. The May figure was revised downward from -1.4% to -1.8%.

Construction spending advanced 0.1%, but the figure for the

previous month was revised downward from -0.2% to -1.0%.

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Canada: 9300 jobs lost in JulyFirst net job losses after 226.6K jobs created in previous 3 months

Monthly change (thousands)

NBFG Economy and Strategy Group (data via Datastream)

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ISM manufacturing declined to 55.5 in JulyFrom 60.4 in April, the index has moderated to 55.5 in July


Level

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Monthly change (thousands)

U.S. nonfarm payroll down 131,000 in JulyUnemployment rate unchanged at 9.5%


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THINGS TO WATCH Canada & US

August 6, 2010 6

Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

Uranium One Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 -0.01

Ensign Energy Svs. Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.13Brookfield Ren. Power 17:00 Q2 2010 0.26

Jaguar Mining Inc Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.05

Atlantic Power Corp Q2 2010 0.12

Golden Star Resources Lt Q2 2010 0.06

Scripps Net. Interac. Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.58

King Pharma. Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.16

Tyson Foods Inc Q3 2010 0.57

8:15 CA Housing Starts JUL 189.3K 184.0K 185.0K Northgate Minerals Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.03

14:15 US FOMC Rate Decision Aug-10 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Gammon Gold Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.09

Canadian Apartment PropAft-mkt Q2 2010 0.37

Great Basin Gold Ltd Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.03

First Quantum Min. Aft-mkt Q2 2010 2.09

Dundee Corp Q2 2010 0.00

Osisko Mining Corp Q2 2010 -0.02

Davis & Henderson Inc. Q2 2010 0.65

CI Financial Corp Q2 2010 0.28

European Goldfields Q2 2010 0.01

Sino-Forest Corp Q2 2010 0.23

Ivanhoe Energy Inc Q2 2010 -0.01

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug-06 1.30% - - IAMGOLD Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.15

8:30 US Trade Balance JUN -$42.3B -$42.1B -$41.0B Provident Energy Trust Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.06

8:30 CA Int'l Merchandise Trade JUN -0.5B -0.4B 0.2B Silver Wheaton Corp Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.16

CAE Inc Q1 2011 0.15

Metro Inc Q3 2010 1.13

Russel Metals Inc Q2 2010 0.32

RONA Inc Q2 2010 0.58

Onex Corp Q2 2010 0.24

Rubicon Minerals Corp Q2 2010 0.00Quebecor Inc Q2 2010 1.06

Groupe Aeroplan Inc Q2 2010 0.24

PetroBakken Energy Q2 2010 0.18

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Aug-07 479K 465K Aurizon Mines Ltd Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.04

Quadra FNX Mining Ltd Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.23

Gildan Activewear Inc Bef-mkt Q3 2010 0.49

Tim Hortons Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.51

Equinox Minerals Ltd 16:00 Q2 2010 0.11

Boardwalk REIT Aft-mkt Q2 2010 0.67

Silvercorp Metals Inc Aft-mkt Q1 2011 0.08

Chartwell Sen. Hous. Q2 2010 0.17

Cineplex Galaxy Q2 2010 0.25

Toromont Industries Q2 2010 0.23

Canadian Tire Q2 2010 1.33

Baytex Energy Trust Q2 2010 0.27

8:30 US Consumer Price Index (MoM) JUL -0.10% 0.20% 0.10% Cameco Corp Bef-mkt Q2 2010 0.25

8:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) JUL 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% Niko Resources Ltd Q1 2011 0.85

8:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) JUL 1.10% 1.20% 1.10% Pacific Rubiales Energy C Q2 2010 0.24

8:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) JUL 0.90% 0.90% 0.80% Petrobank Energy & Res. Q2 2010 1.59

8:30 US Advance Retail Sales JUL -0.50% 0.50% 0.60% Questerre Energy Q2 2010 -0.02

8:30 US Retail Sales Less Autos JUL -0.10% 0.30% 0.40% Ivanhoe Mines Ltd/CA Q2 2010 -0.07

8:30 CA New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM JUN 0.20% 2.00% H&R Reit Q2 2010 0.37

9:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence AUG P 67.8 69.5 69.3 Fronteer Gold Inc Q2 2010 -0.02

Advantage Oil & Gas Q2 2010 -0.04

NuVista Energy Ltd Q2 2010 0.01

Bankers Petroleum Q2 2010 0.03

JC Penney Co Inc Bef-mkt Q2 2011 0.07

Source: Bloomberg

Aug 13

Wednesday

Aug 11

Thursday

Aug 12

Friday

Monday

Aug 9

TuesdayAug 10

Economic releases & eventsPer iod PreviousTime

Earnings announcementsCountry Release NBF

Estimate

Company Time Qtr


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ECONOMIC TABLES

August 6, 2010 7

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORSAugust 6, 2010

Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Cumulated since

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 * Jun 2010 1723 0.9 0.3 -0.7 1.8 4.4 4.6 6.7 15.2M2 * Jun 2010 8611 0.4 1.0 -0.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 9.3

CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit May 2010 2415 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -3.6 -4.0 -3.9 -4.0 -0.5Mortgage (Banks) * Jun 2010 3677 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 -3.3 -4.1 -4.7 -3.3 5.3Business * Jun 2010 1242 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 -7.5 -16.1 -16.6 -18.8 1.7

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross May 2010 1327 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 1.9 3.6 4.3 13.2Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) Jun 2010 659 0.7 0.6 0.6 4.6 2.4 3.7 4.3 14.9

CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer May 2010 461 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.0 9.4 9.0 9.3 7.6Mortgages May 2010 988 1.0 0.4 0.6 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 8.4Short - Term Business Loans Jun 2010 324 0.2 0.4 -0.7 -3.8 -11.3 -11.5 -14.5 3.2Business (S.T. + L.T.) Jun 2010 1208 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2Private (Consumer+Business) May 2010 2656 0.4 0.4 0.3 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.0 5.9

Federal Debt * Jul 2010 569 1.2 -1.5 1.8 7.9 6.4 7.1 11.2 27.4INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATES

Reference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 05 Aug 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Prime Rate * 05 Aug 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 05 Aug 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.172-year Bonds * 05 Aug 0.53 0.56 0.56 0.68 0.81 0.85 0.79 0.80 1.215-year Bonds * 05 Aug 1.57 1.63 1.67 1.91 2.18 2.26 2.15 2.30 2.7110-year Bonds * 05 Aug 2.91 2.99 2.93 3.15 3.44 3.47 3.39 3.61 3.7530-year Bonds * 05 Aug 4.05 4.08 3.95 4.11 4.37 4.37 4.20 4.56 4.52Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 05 Aug 8.24 8.34 8.51 8.94 8.78 9.35 8.59 9.02 11.16Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 05 Aug 3.86 3.97 4.06 4.33 4.37 4.51 4.19 4.40 5.36

SPREADS

Corp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 05 Aug 5.33 5.35 5.58 5.79 5.34 5.88 5.20 5.41 7.41Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 05 Aug 0.95 0.98 1.13 1.18 0.93 1.04 0.80 0.79 1.61Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 05 Aug 3.90 3.93 3.79 3.97 4.23 4.26 4.09 4.47 4.35

EXCHANGE RATE

Major currencies, traded-weighted * 30 Jul 75.43 75.75 76.03 78.13 77.16 75.65 78.72 76.10 74.75

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 05 Aug 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.38 2.31 2.25 2.25 2.25Target overnight rate * 05 Aug 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.38 0.31 0.25 0.25 0.2530-day commercial paper * 05 Aug 0.85 0.85 0.88 0.66 0.53 0.44 0.45 0.35 0.303-month Treasury Bills * 05 Aug 0.69 0.66 0.62 0.53 0.40 0.30 0.40 0.17 0.251-year Treasury Bills * 05 Aug 1.18 1.17 1.12 1.14 1.02 0.79 1.12 0.54 0.665-year Bonds * 05 Aug 2.32 2.36 2.41 2.55 2.69 2.65 2.83 2.50 2.7010-year Bonds * 05 Aug 3.11 3.18 3.21 3.28 3.41 3.42 3.54 3.42 3.5830-year Bonds * 05 Aug 3.67 3.76 3.77 3.75 3.90 3.93 3.93 4.04 4.06

SPREADS

Prime - 30d. Commercial paper * 05 Aug 1.90 1.90 1.87 1.84 1.85 1.87 1.80 1.90 1.95Long Term - Short Term * 05 Aug 2.98 3.10 3.15 3.22 3.51 3.63 3.53 3.87 3.81

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS

3-month T-Bills * 05 Aug 0.54 0.51 0.46 0.39 0.25 0.19 0.29 0.08 0.08Long Term Bonds * 05 Aug -0.38 -0.32 -0.17 -0.36 -0.47 -0.44 -0.27 -0.52 -0.46

EXCHANGE RATE

US$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 05 Aug 0.9833 0.9654 0.9640 0.9623 0.9694 0.9549 0.9520 0.9324 0.9277Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 05 Aug 111.4 109.8 109.4 109.7 110.4 108.2 110.3 105.8 105.3

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SinceReference Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Thursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 05 Aug 10675.0 10.2 -2.5 -8.6 -1.8 6.6 15.0 2.8 7.5S&P 500 (U.S.) * 05 Aug 1125.8 10.1 -4.0 -8.7 -3.4 5.6 12.3 1.8 14.5NASDAQ (U.S.) * 05 Aug 2293.1 9.6 -5.7 -7.6 -4.5 7.1 15.1 4.5 32.1S&P/TSX (Can.) * 05 Aug 11774.8 6.2 -4.1 -2.6 -0.8 4.9 6.6 2.3 36.1

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted


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ECONOMIC TABLES

August 6, 2010 8

TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 6, 2010

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since


Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators Jun 2010 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 5.1 8.9 7.0 8.4 9.8 -3.3Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Jul 2010 50.4 54.3 62.7 55.8 54.0 53.4 47.4 54.3 40.3I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Jul 2010 55.5 56.2 59.7 57.1 58.0 56.3 49.1 58.0 40.8

* Jul 2010 57.4 58.1 61.1 58.9 58.6 55.4 47.0 57.7 45.0

DOMESTIC DEMAND

Sales new autos & light trucks (000,000) * Jul 2010 11.5 11.2 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.2 9.8Retail Sales Jun 2010 -0.5 -1.1 0.3 4.1 7.0 1.6 4.8 6.2 -9.7

- Motor vehicle Jun 2010 -2.3 -0.6 0.5 11.4 7.1 3.7 6.8 9.3 -20.8- Other Jun 2010 -0.1 -1.2 0.3 2.7 7.0 1.2 4.4 5.6 -6.7

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) * Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 -0.1 1.7 3.3 1.7 3.1 3.4 -2.1Total ($ constant) * Jun 2010 0.1 0.2 -0.1 1.6 1.6 0.4 1.7 1.2 -2.0

Personal Income * Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.4 4.1 3.7 0.3 2.6 2.3 -1.9Personal Savings Rate (3) * Jun 2010 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.2 5.9 5.7 6.7 5.9 6.3New Orders Jun 2010 -1.2 -1.8 1.0 2.5 14.9 0.7 11.3 14.4 -24.2

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft * Jun 2010 0.2 4.7 -2.8 25.0 17.1 -0.1 15.6 16.0 -25.8Unfilled Orders Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.4 2.7 -2.0 -8.6 -2.2 -5.3 -6.2

Business Inventories May 2010 0.1 0.4 0.7 5.9 1.2 -9.4 -1.5 -4.8 -6.4Inventories / Shipments Businesses May 2010 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.41 1.24 1.44Manufacturers' Shipments * Jun 2010 -0.8 -1.8 0.6 2.7 11.2 -0.9 9.1 10.4 -20.3Manufacturers' Inventories Jun 2010 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 4.1 3.4 -7.9 0.5 -3.0 -7.8

Inventories / Shipments Manuf. * Jun 2010 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.27 1.37 1.25 1.42Housing Starts (000) (1) Jun 2010 549 578 679 602 610 592 583 610 533

New Home Sales Jun 2010 23.6 -36.7 9.9 -20.7 -18.4 -5.2 -16.7 -3.0 -34.1Existing Home Sales Jun 2010 -5.6 -1.6 7.7 42.5 -9.3 13.3 8.5 12.2 -3.7

PRODUCTION

Industrial Production Jun 2010 0.1 1.3 0.3 6.6 6.9 -0.9 8.2 4.9 -12.2- Consumer Goods Jun 2010 -0.6 1.9 -0.9 1.0 4.7 1.0 6.8 4.9 -8.8- Hitech goods Jun 2010 1.2 1.4 1.5 18.6 15.5 6.7 19.8 19.2 -19.1

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCES

Exports May 2010 2.4 -0.7 3.8 18.5 22.1 -0.9 21.0 17.7 -18.5Imports May 2010 2.9 -0.4 2.9 23.1 26.7 -5.5 29.1 21.4 -28.3Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) May 2010 -42.3 -40.3 -40.0 -40.9 -39.2 -35.8 -24.9 -39.6 -28.7Real merchandise trade balance May 2010 -46.0 -44.2 -44.1 -44.8 -43.3 -41.4 -36.3 -43.4 -41.4Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) Jun 2010 -1333.5 -1359.4 -1413.1 -1255.2 -616.0 -753.8

INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices Jun 2010 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.1 -0.6- Excluding Food and Energy Jun 2010 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.8

PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy * Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5Industrial Prices, Finished Goods Jun 2010 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 5.7 1.3 2.7 4.8 -3.1Average Hourly Earnings (4) * Jul 2010 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.3Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate Jun 2010 74.1 74.1 73.1 73.8 73.1 71.8 68.2 73.1 69.5

Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) Jun 2010 5.6 1.2 1.8 30.3 -3.3 -4.2 1.3 0.4 -15.2LABOUR MARKET

New Jobs (000) (6) * Jul 2010 -131 -221 432 27 107 -4 -52 654 -4034- Manufacturing (000) Jul 2010 36 13 39 29 27 -2 -22 183 -1083

- Services (000) * Jul 2010 -164 -218 411 10 82 25 300 537 -2115Average weekly hours (6) * Jul 2010 0.4 -0.3 0.3 3.0 2.1 -3.1 1.2 -0.8 -7.0Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) * Jul 2010 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4 9.7 8.8

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 2009 2008 2007

GDP Chained 2005 dollars 2.4 3.7 5.0 1.6 -0.7 -4.9 -2.6 0.0 1.9Consumption 1.6 1.9 0.9 2.0 -1.6 -0.5 -1.2 -0.3 2.4Residential Construction 27.8 -12.3 -0.8 10.6 -19.7 -36.2 -22.9 -24.0 -18.7Business Investment 17.0 7.8 -1.4 -1.7 -7.5 -35.2 -17.1 0.3 6.7

- Machinery and Equipment 21.9 20.5 14.6 4.2 0.2 -31.6 -15.3 -2.4 3.7Government Spending 4.4 -1.6 -1.4 1.6 6.2 -3.0 1.6 2.8 1.3Exports 10.4 11.4 24.4 12.2 -1.0 -27.8 -9.5 6.0 9.3Imports 28.8 11.2 4.9 21.9 -10.6 -35.3 -13.8 -2.6 2.7Change in Inventories (1) (2) 75.7 44.1 -36.7 -128.2 -161.8 -125.8 -113.1 -37.6 27.7GDP Deflator 1.8 1.1 -0.3 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.9 2.2 2.9Personal Disposable Income 4.4 1.7 0.0 -4.4 5.9 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.3

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007Labour Productivity (4) 2.8 6.3 7.8 7.6 0.9 2.2 3.7 2.0 1.8

Unit Labor Costs (4) -1.3 -7.8 -7.6 0.1 -5.0 2.2 -1.9 1.0 2.4

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Current Account (current $) -436.0 -403.6 -390.0 -337.8 -382.3 -590.6 -378.4 -668.9 -718.1as a % of GDP -3.0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.7 -4.2 -2.7 -4.7 -5.1

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Corporate Profits (8) 48.9 42.7 47.2 14.7 71.2 -70.6 -0.4 -16.4 -6.1as a % of GDP 10.8 9.9 9.2 8.4 8.1 7.0 8.9 8.8 8.9

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold

(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey

(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey

(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

- Non-manufacturing (level)


9/14


ECONOMIC TABLES

August 6, 2010 9

TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 6, 2010




Index of Leading Indicators (Stat. Can.) Jun 2010 1.0 1.1 1.1 13.5 13.3 3.1 13.3 9.2 -5.3

DOMESTIC DEMAND

New motor vehicle sales (000) May 2010 126.5 126.2 131.6 128.1 129.9 128.5 1541.9 650.5 593.3Retail Sales ($ current) May 2010 -0.2 -2.2 2.3 5.9 5.9 2.0 5.2 6.7 -5.3

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers May 2010 -0.5 -5.0 4.4 6.9 3.4 4.0 5.4 10.0 -14.1- Other May 2010 -0.1 -1.4 1.8 5.7 6.6 1.5 5.2 5.9 -2.4

Retail Sales ($ constant) May 2010 0.4 -2.1 2.4 6.8 4.3 2.2 4.5 5.2 -3.7

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) May 2010 0.4 0.4 1.4 9.3 12.5 -6.5 16.5 10.2 -19.2New Orders May 2010 2.5 0.6 -1.1 4.0 21.2 -6.7 33.8 17.1 -25.0

- Durables May 2010 6.7 0.1 -2.5 3.6 33.0 -10.0 68.7 26.1 -33.9Unfilled Orders May 2010 1.3 -0.4 -0.5 2.7 -7.0 -18.8 -9.0 -17.9 6.2Manufacturer's Inventories May 2010 -0.7 0.1 -0.9 -3.9 -5.6 -9.7 -6.8 -9.0 -0.7Inventories / Shipments Ratio May 2010 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.34 1.40 1.63 1.33 1.61Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) May 2010 0.4 0.1 1.6 10.3 12.4 -4.0 14.6 9.3 -19.3

Housing Starts (000) (1) Jun 2010 192.8 198.9 206.3 199.3 198.8 183.3 143.4 198.8 129.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -8.2 -10.8 -3.9 -43.4 -14.2 26.4 -18.0 18.8 -14.1

Number of personal bankrupties (2) Apr 2010 8.7 -9.6 -8.7 -67.5 -29.9 21.5 -15.7 -6.4 26.7

Number of commercial bankrupties (2) * Apr 2010 -2.3 -3.8 -7.1 -56.1 -28.6 -13.3 -27.2 -23.2 -8.7

PRODUCTION

Real Domestic Product May 2010 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.0 -0.4 3.8 2.7 -3.2- Manufacturing May 2010 0.1 -0.3 1.7 11.8 11.5 -5.0 8.6 5.0 -13.2- Construction May 2010 -1.6 -0.2 0.8 1.4 7.9 -3.1 4.1 3.6 -6.8

Services May 2010 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 1.7 3.4 1.6 2.7 2.9 -0.7

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCES

Exports May 2010 5.2 -1.3 -0.4 5.4 19.9 -13.8 21.3 8.1 -23.3Imports May 2010 5.7 -1.4 2.7 18.5 15.2 -8.8 17.4 6.8 -12.3

- Capital Goods May 2010 6.6 0.1 1.5 26.1 1.2 -13.6 4.8 -7.2 -3.2Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) May 2010 -503 -330 -356 -396 88 -225 -1,373 71 -303Change in Official Reserves May 2010 -816 174 -673 -438 -66 930 11,157 1,670 11,973

Level (US$): 56,027 Fiscal year

Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) May 2010 -43.9 -45.4 -47.0 -15.5 -4.4 -7.5

INFLATION AND COSTS

Consumer Prices Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.3 2.6 1.8 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.6- Excluding Food and Energy Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.4 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3- Core inflation (4) Jun 2010 -0.1 0.3 0.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9

Average Hourly Earnings (2) * Jul 2010 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -3.3 1.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 3.9Price of New Housing icluding land May 2010 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.8 3.7 -0.7 2.9 1.6 -2.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -2.5 -1.3 0.7 -3.6 2.9 14.4 4.9 14.0 -5.0

Industrial Prices (1992=100) Jun 2010 -0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 2.0 -2.6 0.2 -0.1 -1.7

LABOUR MARKET

Labour Force Jul 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.1 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.8

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 -9.3 93.2 24.7 36.2 42.7 32.8 393.7 299.1 -283.6- Manufacturing * Jul 2010 28.5 -14.3 2.7 5.6 2.8 0.2 2.4 1.4 -177.8- Services * Jul 2010 -51.3 103.4 32.4 28.2 28.7 24.2 290.1 238.4 11.9- Full Time * Jul 2010 -139.0 49.0 67.2 -7.6 11.2 18.0 216.4 68.5 -347.1- Part Time * Jul 2010 129.7 44.2 -42.5 43.8 31.5 14.8 177.3 230.6 63.5

Unemployment Rate * Jul 2010 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.1 8.2

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth Rates

QUARTERLY INDICATORS Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

GDP Chained (2002) $ 6.1 4.9 0.9 -2.8 -7.0 -3.1 -2.5 0.5 2.2

Consumption 4.4 3.9 3.8 2.2 -1.1 -2.7 0.4 2.9 4.6

Business Investments 0.9 -9.8 1.1 -22.0 -41.6 -18.7 -19.9 3.4 3.3

-Machinery and Equipment 7.5 -8.1 17.6 -15.9 -41.3 -29.9 -20.3 -0.9 4.2

Residential Construction 23.6 26.3 9.1 5.9 -21.5 -24.5 -8.2 -3.7 2.8

Government Expenditures 1.9 6.9 6.6 1.5 3.1 4.6 3.5 3.9 2.7

Final Domestic Demand 4.7 5.0 5.3 -0.2 -7.6 -4.8 -1.8 2.8 4.0

Exports 12.0 13.8 9.5 -15.9 -31.5 -15.2 -14.2 -4.6 1.2

Imports 14.1 12.4 27.3 -1.9 -38.7 -24.9 -13.9 1.2 5.9

Change in Inventories (1) 8.2 -1.2 -1.6 -1.8 -6.9 5.6 -2.9 9.0 12.2

Real Disposible Income 1.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 -0.2 7.5 1.1 3.7 4.0Personal savings Rate 2.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.2 4.7 4.5 3.6 2.8

GDP Price Deflator 4.4 4.4 3.8 1.0 -6.2 -12.9 -2.1 4.0 3.2

Corporate Profits (nominal) 39.1 36.8 44.5 -32.4 -55.3 -68.7 -32.3 8.0 1.9

as a % of GDP 10.8 10.2 9.6 8.9 9.8 11.5 9.6 13.6 13.1

Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate 74.2 71.3 68.6 68.1 70.2 75.5 69.5 77.9 82.4

Labour Productivity, Business Sector 3.1 4.7 -0.8 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.4 -0.9 0.0

Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector -1.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 4.0 4.7 2.3 4.0 3.5

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Current Account (current $) (1) -31.3 -40.8 -55.1 -49.8 -28.4 -30.2 -43.5 6.9 12.8

as a % of GDP -2.0 -2.6 -3.6 -3.3 -1.9 -1.9 -2.8 0.5 0.8

* Update

(1) Annual Rate, $ billions

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted

(3) Current and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

(4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect

of indirect taxes


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ECONOMIC TABLES

August 6, 2010 10

Economic and Strategy Team

TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 6, 2010




QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 -1.8 -3.5 3.1 4.2 6.8 3.3 4.4 7.6 -3.2Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -0.8 1.1 0.1 -1.2 6.5 -6.1 12.2 5.4 -14.9Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 54.2 50.7 52.9 52.6 52.6 49.9 38.2 52.6 40.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.0 -7.1 -8.7 -46.5 -2.4 17.9 -9.8 17.3 -10.4

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.1 -0.6 0.9 1.1 3.8 1.8 3.0 2.9 1.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 -2.3 -3.2 13.4 18.9 11.0 -14.6 4.4 -2.8 -14.0Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 11.1 2.2 -15.6 -64.5 -26.1 14.1 -17.2 -10.3 19.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 10.0 -8.4 -14.9 -46.6 -23.8 -18.0 -26.7 -27.6 3.8

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 -0.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.5 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -0.7 -1.7 0.4 -4.6 0.3 2.3 1.1 1.8 4.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.4 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.3 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.3 -0.5 3.6 2.6 6.4 8.7 6.4 9.7 1.0

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 -20.9 30.4 -5.3 1.4 9.0 8.0 95.6 60.4 -53.1Unemployment rate * Jul 2010 8.2 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.9 8.0 8.5Participation rate * Jul 2010 65.5 65.7 65.4 65.5 65.3 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.4

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 0.1 -1.4 3.4 11.7 5.2 1.9 5.8 6.1 -4.6Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 1.5 -0.1 1.1 10.4 15.2 -5.0 22.5 14.8 -21.9Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 56.2 66.7 65.4 62.8 63.4 59.1 49.4 63.4 45.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -10.3 -13.0 -6.3 -47.5 -4.8 28.5 -17.3 24.2 -12.5

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.5 0.1 0.9 5.1 4.7 -0.3 2.7 2.4 -0.7Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 5.5 -11.3 20.1 89.2 19.5 -10.0 31.9 12.8 -24.6Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 10.3 -24.5 -4.6 -75.0 -35.1 20.8 -20.8 -9.6 28.2Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -9.1 -3.4 0.7 -70.0 -26.8 -7.0 -22.6 -18.9 -18.0

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 -0.2 0.4 0.3 3.5 2.6 0.8 1.6 1.8 0.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 0.0 -0.3 -1.1 -4.5 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 3.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.7 3.7 0.7 3.0 1.9 0.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.2 -0.1 -2.5 -9.9 9.9 14.0 5.6 15.5 -2.6

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 -15.0 60.3 17.7 21.0 20.2 14.3 171.8 151.2 -141.4Unemployment rate * Jul 2010 8.5 8.3 8.9 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.2 8.8 9.0Participation rate * Jul 2010 67.5 67.6 67.5 67.5 67.3 67.3 67.2 67.3 67.4

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales May 2010 -1.7 -3.8 3.3 6.4 4.0 4.2 2.1 6.6 0.4Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 0.6 41.8 49.0 177.3 -22.6 -13.1 74.0 11.3 -42.8Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 4.6 4.5 5.4 4.8 5.3 4.3 3.2 5.3 3.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.8 -3.6 -5.5 -27.2 17.2 8.2 6.4 18.6 -10.7

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 -0.2 1.2 0.6 4.9 3.3 4.0 -1.6 2.7 6.3Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 17.8 33.1 0.8 66.8 -27.5 -35.3 -6.0 -4.1 -33.7Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 1.6 23.0 -19.1 -53.0 -33.7 17.9 -16.3 9.6 -1.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 #DIV/0! -100.0 100.0 -87.0 -21.0 21.4 100.0 -22.2 -50.0

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 0.0 0.2 -0.1 1.7 3.1 1.2 1.2 2.4 0.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -2.0 1.2 -1.7 -8.9 4.9 5.3 7.6 6.2 3.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.2 1.1 0.0 5.7 7.2 6.3 6.2 5.6 18.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -1.7 0.3 1.0 6.7 21.4 12.8 9.1 14.9 20.4

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 1.0 -8.1 7.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 7.1 2.6 -3.8Unemployment * Jul 2010 15.0 14.7 13.8 14.5 14.8 15.2 17.0 14.8 15.3Participation rate * Jul 2010 59.9 59.4 61.0 60.1 60.0 59.8 59.7 59.9 59.1

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 -2.2 -1.7 2.8 5.8 8.8 2.8 5.5 7.7 -2.3Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -7.7 -2.7 7.1 0.3 -13.3 -9.1 -15.4 -12.9 -0.2Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 6.8 -4.3 0.7 40.9 31.3 3.0 21.4 11.7 4.3

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 0.6 0.4 2.1 -0.2 4.0 1.1 2.4 4.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 39.3 -18.8 37.3 79.2 -41.7 -10.5 4.1 -17.6 5.3Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -23.7 -25.5 21.4 -45.0 -0.8 15.6 -34.1 6.0 38.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 100.0 0.0 -66.7 -93.8 -36.0 92.9 0.0 40.0 25.0

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.6 2.3 -0.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -0.8 -2.7 -1.7 -11.6 8.2 2.5 5.3 3.0 6.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -3.7 -2.2 0.3 -1.6 -1.0 0.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -7.2 -21.4 23.6 6.9 5.0 5.9 -7.5 4.7 4.9

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 0.8 0.3 -1.9 -0.3 0.0 0.2 2.5 0.6 0.4Unemployment * Jul 2010 10.8 12.3 10.7 11.3 10.7 11.1 12.2 10.6 12.3Participation rate * Jul 2010 68.6 69.1 67.8 68.5 68.7 68.5 67.9 68.6 67.8

Monthly Growth (%)


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TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)August 6, 2010


Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of yearOtherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 -1.7 -2.0 2.2 8.2 5.7 4.4 4.2 7.9 -2.6Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 2.9 1.1 5.1 23.0 3.5 -7.8 4.7 4.3 -15.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 3.2 6.1 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 2.9 4.4 2.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 3.4 -8.3 -5.0 -16.1 -2.3 8.0 -5.2 11.6 -18.7

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 1.3 0.1 6.9 3.6 2.1 3.8 3.4 2.0Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 9.8 0.3 13.3 31.4 -3.2 -18.2 7.8 -4.4 -23.0Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 10.5 -4.1 -7.8 -62.5 -18.9 15.1 7.7 6.0 19.0Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -25.0 -33.3 -29.4 -35.4 -58.1 -7.3 -45.5 13.2 -39.7

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.7 2.2 -0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -6.8 5.4 3.6 2.9 4.0 6.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.7 2.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 0.0 -2.1 -0.2 -16.0 7.8 7.3 6.0 9.3 0.9

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 0.5 0.4 3.5 1.5 1.9 0.6 7.7 6.2 -2.7Unemployment * Jul 2010 9.3 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.0 9.1Participation rate * Jul 2010 65.1 64.7 64.6 64.8 64.4 64.5 64.2 64.4 64.5

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 1.2 -2.9 0.6 -0.2 4.7 4.1 5.5 7.4 -0.8Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -5.3 11.3 1.5 18.6 45.9 0.0 23.2 26.7 -27.5Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 4.7 4.5 6.2 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.8 4.6 3.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 10.8 -14.6 -10.3 -50.0 -6.1 2.0 -6.2 4.7 -13.8

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.8 0.8 0.0 4.4 3.8 2.6 3.4 3.3 2.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 23.8 1.3 -1.2 14.3 64.1 1.8 45.2 39.9 -28.2Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 0.0 -0.5 -8.3 -66.0 -28.9 23.7 5.8 7.4 20.3Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -25.0 166.7 -72.7 -91.0 -14.8 -42.2 50.0 -28.2 -36.1

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 1.0 2.6 -0.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -0.4 0.2 -1.4 -6.8 -0.7 2.9 0.5 1.7 5.0Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.9 1.0 0.7 4.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 0.4 0.5 1.4 10.5 0.6 6.0 2.8 3.8 4.2

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 1.4 -4.4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -2.1 -2.4 -3.0Unemployment * Jul 2010 9.0 9.3 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.0 9.0Participation rate * Jul 2010 63.8 63.9 64.4 64.0 64.2 64.4 64.6 64.3 64.7

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 0.6 -2.2 1.0 2.1 5.5 4.0 6.3 7.3 -3.3Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -0.5 -3.8 5.5 6.1 -4.9 -12.4 -7.7 -8.1 -5.0Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 8.2 5.0 7.4 6.9 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.8 3.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.6 -6.8 5.8 4.8 -2.8 4.6 -2.9 5.5 -9.7

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 1.2 0.4 -0.2 3.2 2.7 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.8Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 3.1 -6.6 29.3 116.4 3.1 -19.2 -3.4 -10.6 -11.1Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 12.1 -23.5 1.7 -49.4 -38.9 15.8 -15.1 -5.6 11.0Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 28.6 16.7 20.0 720.2 -19.5 -17.8 350.0 12.5 -20.0

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.0 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -0.2 1.0 0.4 2.5 1.7 3.0 5.2 2.8 3.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.2 0.4 0.4 9.2 5.5 2.5 4.8 4.1 4.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 2.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.7 11.5 10.3 13.4 11.4 2.5

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 -0.1 0.3 1.4 0.5 1.4 1.1 12.7 16.6 -1.0Unemployment * Jul 2010 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.0Participation rate * Jul 2010 70.1 70.1 70.4 69.9 69.9 69.7 69.6 69.8 69.4

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 -0.3 -2.1 1.6 0.5 -0.2 1.6 1.4 3.4 -1.6Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 -1.7 2.4 4.8 28.9 13.8 -5.2 5.6 8.3 -7.0Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 6.3 4.4 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.5 5.4 2.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -4.7 -0.5 -9.1 -28.5 -22.6 21.2 -8.5 8.1 -17.4

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.4 5.8 3.4 4.3 4.1 5.6Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 0.6 -11.2 8.4 -21.4 11.5 -18.3 4.6 4.7 -20.8Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 2.2 7.1 5.9 -35.4 -21.4 21.4 -9.8 5.3 13.1Number of c ommercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -25.0 -7.7 85.7 117.4 -60.0 13.5 -35.7 -14.6 -11.1

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.8 2.1 5.4 4.3 5.1 6.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 1.6 0.9 0.2 10.0 4.7 -0.3 5.8 2.6 -0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 2.8 -4.9 4.2 3.3 1.8 4.2 5.6 4.6 2.8

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 -2.1 2.1 -1.8 -0.6 1.0 0.6 7.3 3.9 -1.0Unemployment * Jul 2010 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7Participation rate * Jul 2010 70.0 70.6 70.1 70.2 70.2 70.0 69.9 70.1 70.3

Monthly Growth (%)


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TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)August 6, 2010




ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 0.0 -2.3 0.5 0.5 7.3 -1.9 4.4 5.4 -10.5Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 0.3 -1.9 0.4 10.0 19.4 -12.2 12.1 7.2 -18.9Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 27.2 29.7 29.7 28.9 29.0 27.2 20.3 29.0 14.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -11.9 -9.1 -0.7 -36.9 -30.0 12.3 -34.2 2.3 -14.1

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.9 0.8 1.2 9.8 3.0 -0.3 2.6 1.5 3.4Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 2.0 -1.8 6.3 13.3 28.4 -18.9 50.1 21.8 -37.3Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -6.9 7.9 -7.6 -64.8 -31.0 49.5 -9.8 1.5 65.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 11.1 -15.6 0.0 -37.3 -1.0 -17.2 -31.8 -23.4 23.4

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -1.6 2.4 2.8 1.6 4.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.4 2.0 -5.2 1.6 -0.6 -9.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -3.3 -1.2 0.6 3.3 -0.4 4.3 3.7 7.0 -8.5

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 8.8 5.7 14.7 9.7 3.5 2.0 24.0 13.3 -30.7Unemployment * Jul 2010 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.2Participation rate * Jul 2010 73.1 73.3 73.2 73.2 73.2 73.5 74.5 73.2 74.6

DOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales May 2010 1.5 -1.4 1.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.5 8.6 -8.5Manufacturing Shipments May 2010 2.1 -3.2 3.6 19.0 10.1 -7.5 12.7 7.5 -19.8Housing Starts (000) (2) Jun 2010 27.1 25.8 28.5 27.1 27.4 23.2 13.8 27.4 13.0Number of existing homes sold (MLS) Jun 2010 -9.3 -12.3 6.2 -44.1 -35.6 56.3 -22.5 26.3 -21.3

Wages and Salaries Mar 2010 0.4 1.0 -0.5 4.3 4.0 -1.0 2.5 1.8 -1.2Value of merchandise exports (1) May 2010 9.3 3.5 12.1 89.5 16.0 -15.6 30.8 7.9 -18.2Number of personal bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 16.7 -2.7 -10.0 -55.1 -21.5 33.8 -8.9 -1.5 40.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2010 -35.7 40.0 5.3 -43.1 -54.7 -21.9 -62.5 -41.0 -9.4

PRICES

Consumer Price Index (1) Jun 2010 -0.2 0.4 0.5 2.6 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.6Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Jul 2010 -1.5 -0.3 0.7 1.2 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) May 2010 0.3 0.3 0.5 5.1 6.3 -2.7 4.7 2.5 -6.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) Jun 2010 1.5 -1.8 1.0 6.2 4.7 14.0 10.1 14.7 -8.2

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Jul 2010 16.3 6.4 -10.1 4.2 5.8 5.6 67.1 46.7 -47.2Unemployment * Jul 2010 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4Participation rate * Jul 2010 66.1 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0 66.1 65.7 66.1 66.0

Monthly Growth (%)


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ECONOMIC TABLES

August 6, 2010 13


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 6, 2010

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year


OECD leading index * Jun 2010 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 6.1 5.4 6.7 9.1 -10.0

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Jun 2010 43.5 42.8 42.0 42.8 41.3 40.5 37.6 41.3 31.3Retail Sales (1) Jun 2010 -0.5 -3.0 -7.3 -4.1 -0.6 1.2 3.2 3.7 -3.4Industrial Production, Volume Index Jun 2010 -1.5 0.1 1.3 5.8 22.8 3.0 16.9 23.9 -29.6Exports Jun 2010 -1.8 -1.7 1.5 -4.2 40.0 1.6 26.3 37.6 -42.5Imports Jun 2010 -4.4 1.6 4.9 11.1 42.0 -9.3 27.8 24.0 -37.8Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ) Jun 2010 456 320 504 427 526 501 407 3,156 -181Current account (Billions of ) May 2010 905 1,380 1,785 1,356 1,365 1,345 1,056 6,938 4,086Inflation (CPI) Jun 2010 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -0.2 -1.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.6Job offers to applicants ratio Jun 2010 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.46 0.45 0.49 0.53Unemployment Rate Jun 2010 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.8

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 5.0 4.6 0.4 6.9 -15.8 -9.6 -5.3 -1.2 2.3

Euro-zone

Volume Retail Sales * Jun 2010 0.0 0.4 -1.0 -0.9 0.6 -0.9 0.4 0.2 -3.2Industrial Production * May 2010 0.9 0.8 1.8 12.7 8.2 -4.9 9.4 6.6 -18.7Exports May 2010 1.6 -3.1 8.2 40.5 23.1 -4.5 21.1 14.6 -21.1Imports May 2010 4.2 -3.0 10.2 55.8 27.4 -7.2 26.8 14.3 -21.7Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) May 2010 -2,968 150 326 -831 961 1,320 2,152 1,144 -388Inflation (CPI) Jul 2010 -0.4 0.0 0.1 2.5 2.2 0.9 1.7 1.4 0.4Unemployment Rate Jun 2010 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.5 10.0 9.1

Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 2009 2008 2007

Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) 0.8 0.5 1.6 -0.3 -9.8 -7.4 -4.1 0.5 2.7

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Jul 2010 -17 -11 -10 -13 -9 -9 -16 -8 -24Retail Sales Jun 2010 0.7 0.8 -0.2 6.9 -3.0 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.0Industrial Production * Jun 2010 -0.4 0.7 -0.7 4.2 3.6 -4.0 1.3 0.8 -11.8Exports (1) May 2010 0.2 -0.2 1.3 19.3 21.1 -0.2 20.3 14.0 -10.8Imports (1) May 2010 2.4 -0.2 4.9 21.6 21.3 -1.3 22.2 12.4 -11.0Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of ) May 2010 -8,062 -7,411 -7,418 -7,630 -7,054 -7,285 -7,170 -37,327 -34,491Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) Jun 2010 0.2 0.2 0.6 5.3 3.6 2.6 3.2 3.3 2.6Industrial Prices (1) * Jul 2010 0.1 -0.3 0.1 5.1 6.3 3.6 5.0 4.9 1.0House prices * Jul 2010 0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -1.8 1.8 2.4 4.8 5.4 -15.1Unemployment Rate Apr 2010 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.2

Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 2009 2008 2007Gross Domestic Product (Constant ) 4.5 1.3 1.7 -1.0 -2.8 -1.0 -4.9 -0.1 2.7

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.

Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 5-Aug-10 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 5-Aug-10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.15

- Spread with U.S. * 5-Aug-10 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.03 -0.03 0.01 0.01 0.03 -0.02Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 5-Aug-10 1.03 1.07 1.06 1.16 1.24 1.28 1.27 1.37 1.43

- Spread with U.S. * 5-Aug-10 -1.88 -1.91 -1.88 -1.99 -2.20 -2.19 -2.12 -2.24 -2.31Exchange Rate (/U.S.$) * 5-Aug-10 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 5-Aug-10 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.71 0.65 0.67 0.62 0.61 0.84

- Spread with U.S. * 5-Aug-10 0.68 0.68 0.66 0.57 0.51 0.56 0.51 0.52 0.67Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 5-Aug-10 2.62 2.77 2.64 2.66 2.88 3.07 2.82 3.20 3.34

- Spread with U.S. * 5-Aug-10 -0.29 -0.22 -0.29 -0.48 -0.56 -0.40 -0.57 -0.41 -0.41Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 5-Aug-10 1.32 1.31 1.29 1.26 1.30 1.38 1.27 1.37 1.43

(Yen/Euro) * 5-Aug-10 113.66 113.64 111.57 112.11 117.70 125.07 119.34 125.68 137.31(Euro / ) * 5-Aug-10 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.19 1.16 1.14 1.19 1.15 1.17

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate * 5-Aug-10 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.503-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 5-Aug-10 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.47 0.50 0.49 0.43

- Spread with U.S. * 5-Aug-10 0.35 0.36 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.39 0.40 0.26Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 5-Aug-10 4.16 4.37 4.25 4.26 4.41 4.33 4.38 4.39 4.37

- Spread with U.S. * 5-Aug-10 0.11 0.29 0.30 0.14 0.04 -0.04 0.17 -0.17 -0.15Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / ) * 5-Aug-10 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.50 1.51 1.57 1.48 1.58 1.68

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SincePast Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Aug 2010 194 9.2 -1.0 -12.9 -5.8 -4.0 6.0 -7.8 24.6

Monthly Growth (%)


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ECONOMIC TABLES

August 6, 2010 14

Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Aug 5 Jul 29 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

CRB Index

Total 505.5 491.9 2.8 1.8 0.2 39.5 19.9 20.0 421.3

Energy 645.3 630.2 2.4 1.0 2.1 33.8 9.1 8.3 595.8

Grain 374.9 338.5 10.8 2.3 -1.4 128.5 61.5 23.9 302.7

Industrials 471.1 457.8 2.9 3.1 2.8 19.8 30.7 24.8 377.6

Livestock & Meat 325.0 323.7 0.4 0.4 1.0 -8.9 19.0 32.0 246.2

Precious Metals 940.2 918.3 2.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 25.1 24.7 754.1

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1195.50 1166.00 2.5 -1.8 -2.0 6.1 17.6 24.4 960.75(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 1576.0 1545.0 2.0 1.8 -0.7 -19.9 3.4 22.7 1284.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 18.4 17.6 4.8 -3.2 -1.2 19.5 41.3 24.9 14.7(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 497.0 488.0 1.8 7.7 -3.6 -7.7 33.0 82.1 273.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 2,191 2,076 5.5 2.7 1.1 25.1 18.6 11.7 1,961

Copper ($/tonne) 7,371 7,208 2.3 3.1 5.0 29.3 34.0 22.5 6,018

Zinc ($/tonne) 2,069 1,963 5.4 2.1 7.8 -2.3 6.0 13.5 1,824

Nickel ($/tonne) 21,809 20,606 5.8 2.1 4.4 -3.2 52.6 11.6 19,537

Lead ($/tonne) 2,160 2,028 6.5 5.6 7.9 44.7 23.3 17.5 1,839

Uranium (Neuxco spot $/lb U308) 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ####### $$"ER",

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil ($/barrel) 1-month future 82.14 78.37 4.8 -0.6 3.0 33.9 26.9 14.2 71.94

(West Texas Intermediate)

Corn (/bushel) 369.0 350.5 5.3 0.6 -4.3 29.4 27.3 8.4 340.5

(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (/bushel) 1064.5 1029.0 3.4 0.5 -0.6 76.5 42.1 -7.1 1146.0

(Illinois #1)

Pork (/lb) 150.0 135.0 11.1 11.6 5.2 144.1 184.1 97.4 76.0

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 113.3 112.8 0.5 0.8 -0.7 1.2 32.5 12.4 100.8

(CME)

Woodpulp NBSK 1020 1020 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.4 44.0 47.8 690

Metric ton delivered in U.S.

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 4.85 4.80 1.0 2.2 4.9 118.5 -20.5 29.7 3.74

Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 218 218 0.0 0.5 0.0 -78.5 -25.2 7.9 202

All prices are in US dollars

TABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

August 6, 2010

National Bank of Canada_State of Residential Construction in Canada_Economics Weekly

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Transcript of National Bank of Canada_State of Residential Construction in Canada_Economics Weekly