National Association of Manufacturers August, 2000

35
National Association of Manufacturers August, 2000 La Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria La Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria Confederación Venezolana de Industriales Confederación Venezolana de Industriales

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Confederación Venezolana de Industriales. National Association of Manufacturers August, 2000. La Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria. CONINDUSTRIA’s Vision - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of National Association of Manufacturers August, 2000

Page 1: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

National Association of Manufacturers August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Confederación Venezolana de IndustrialesConfederación Venezolana de Industriales

Page 2: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

CONINDUSTRIA’s Vision

CONINDUSTRIA aims to be a highly

coordinated and strong organization in its

sector, to be competitive and seek export

opportunities, to be an engine for development

and a generator of wealth and general well-

being, whose status in the local market has

earned it a positive and highly favorable image.

Page 3: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Our Mission

CONINDUSTRIA

A business services organization that

supports the competitiveness of

Venezuelan industry, especially that of

small and medium enterprises (SME).

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

Page 4: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

CONINDUSTRIA

• Maximum representation of the industrial sector

• National and international agreements

• Represents 84% of the manufacturing sector’s production

• 90% of non-traditional Venezuelan exports

• Gathers 80% of SME’s

A business services Organization

Page 5: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Economic highlights

1999

• Inflation = 20,1%.

• Oil price increases ($15/barrel)

• Increase in currency reserves- $15.000 MM

• Decrease in Government budget deficit

• Economy geared to the oil sector

• Currency estabilization to curb inflation

• GDP loss of 7,2%

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 6: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

• GDP loss of 10%

• Closing of > 350 establishments

• Loss of > 50.000 jobs– (19%)

• Idle capacity > 40%

• Non-traditional exports fell > 25%

• Interest rates > 30%

• Bolívar overvalued > 40%

Manufacturing sector in VENEZUELA: 1999

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 7: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Mannufacturing today

• Crisis still exists– Unemployment = 15 % – Consumption down/ economic upturn still pending

• Government programs pending:• Government purchases/ ‘draw back’ repayment

plans delayed• Politics ahead of the economy• Oil prices still high ($26/barrel)• Currency rates remain overvalued• Inflation rate down = 15% July 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 8: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

B- 3.2%RHB- 12.4%

RHM20.8%

MM- 29.2%

M- 34.4%

¿How do you rate the venezuelan manufacturing sector today( april 2000)?

Industry today

Campo y procesamiento elaborado por: DatanálisisCoyuntura Industrial, Primer Trimestre de 2000

MM = Muy mala

M = Mala

RHM = Regular hacia Mala

RHB = Regular hacia buena

B = Buena

MB = Muy buena

Page 9: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

52,1%

59,4%58,5%

61,8%59,8%

51,1%

67,2%

62,7%

60,0%

62,8%61,4%

1er tri.97

2do tri.97

3er tri.97

4to tri.97

1er tri.98

2do tri.98

3er tri.98

4to tri.98

1ersem.99

2dosem.99

1er tri.00

Capacity utilization¿What was the capacity utilization during the first quarter

2000?

Coyuntura Industrial, Primer Trimestre de 2000 Campo y procesamiento elaborado por: Datanálisis

Page 10: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Production Index Private Manufacturing

97.098.6

90.3

73.181.8

79.1

97.9

89.8

92.991.288.786.6

88.3

83.8

92.9

86.0

76.0

100.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Indice General Linear (Indice General)

Fuente: Banco Central de Venezuela

(Base 1997 = 100)

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 11: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Coyuntura Industrial, Primer Trimestre de 2000

-10,8%-24,8%

-21,02%

-4,43%

-25,28%

+13,8%

-4,47%-6,77%

-0,71%+6,86%

-0,62%-5,53%+5,29%

+7,90%

+2,72%+0,96%

Employment

Number of employed workers in manufacturing sectorNumber of employed workers in manufacturing sector

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Coyuntura Industrial, Primer Trimestre de 2000 Campo y procesamiento elaborado por: Datanálisis

Page 12: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

N umber of manufacturing companies T wo scenarios

1990-2006

No ta : Las c ifras d e 1998 y 2006 s o n es timad as . Fu en te : OCEI y cá lcu lo s p ro p io s . Elab o rad o p o r la UA EI d e Co n in d u s tria .

10945

597970137363

8891

10900

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1990 1994 1998 1999 2006

Núm ero de Estab lecim ientos M anufacturero de continuar la tendencia

Núm ero de Estab lecim ientos M anufactureros de im plantarse las políticas

Page 13: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Manufacturing G.D.P. Percentage of total

Two scenarios 1990-2006

Fuente: BCV y cálculos propios . Elaborado por la UA EI de Conindus tria.

13,114,1

16,7

14,916,216,7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1994 1998 1999 2006

PIB Manufacturero de continuar la tendenciaPIB Manufacturero de implantarse las políticas

%

Page 14: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Interest rates: lending, corporate, time deposits, savings.

Octuber 1997- June 2000( %)

34343336

43

31

38

49

57

44

68

26282830

32

23

32

40

50

40

63

14141614

2115

23

31

40

33

48

555487 8

10111112

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pagarés Tasa Activa Depósitos a 30 días Ahorros

Fuente: BCV y cálculos pripios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 15: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Fuente: BCV y cálculos pripios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

37 34 36 3631 28

24 22 21 19 18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Oct

-Dic

97

Ene-M

ar 98

Abr-J

un 98

Jul-S

ep 98

Oct

-Dic

98

Ene-M

ar 99

Abr-J

un 99

Jul-S

ep 99

Oct

-Dic

99

Ene-M

ar 00

Abr-J

un 00

Pagarés Ahorros InflacíonLinear (Pagarés) Linear (Inflacíon) Linear (Ahorros)

Inflation and Interest rates October 1997- June 2000

(%)

Page 16: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Exchange rate September 1998-May 2000

Nota: cifras correspondientes al último día hábil de cada mes.Fuente: BCV y cálculos propios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

637 645654 662

670 679 688697 706 715 724 733

742 751 761 771781

655

600 608 615623 631 639 647

663 671680 689 698 707 716 725 734

573 577 584 591 599 606 612628 631

619638 648 655 662 670 675 680

548 555 562 569 577 584 591 599 607 615 623631 639 647 655 663 672

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Ene

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ab

r

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Ag

o

Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dic

Ene

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ab

r

Ma

y

Paridad Superior Paridad CentralCotización de Mercado Paridad Inferior

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Bs./US$

Page 17: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Inflation Devaluation

Inflation & Devaluation in Venezuela December 1991- December 1999

(%)

Fuente: BCV y cálculos propios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 18: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

119

17

56 58

18 14

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Inflación

39

70

94

19

34

19

0

20

40

60

80

100

Devaluación

-80

5338

-39

164

-100

-50

0

50

100

Competitividad

Venezuela Brasil ColombiaMexico Peru Chile

INFLATION, DEVALUATION Y COMPETITIVENESSBrasil, Colombia, Chile, México, Perú y Venezuela

December 1996-February 2000(%)

Fuente: Banco Central del Brasil, Instituto Brasileño de Geografía y Estadística, Banco de la República de Colombia, DANE, BCV, Banco Central de la Reserva de Perú, Banco Central de Chile, Banco Central de México y cálculos propios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial. CONINDUSTRIA.

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 19: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

1256780

1341989

14291144

868916

306332

0 500 1000 1500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000*

Exports to Combia Imports from Colombia

(*) Emero-Abril 2000

Fuente: Comunidad Andina. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

Exports: Venezuela > Colombia

Imports: Colombia > Venezuela 1996-2000

(million dollars)

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 20: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

292936663481334131982436

218417941643

21211535

11536

7723

11706

4704

13242

11336

9823

7002

100277768

4462

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Exports Imports

PRIVATE SECTOR EXPORTS & IMPORTS 1989-1999

(millon dollars)

Fuente: OCEI. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial

Page 21: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Jobs Imported and Exported

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 22: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Proposals to estimulate the Industrial Sector

1. INCREASE SALES:

Government Purchase’s Law

Modernize Customs Controls

Temporary Verification of imports

Temporary control of third country imports

Increase/update “draw back” repayment

Control of illegal imports.

Page 23: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Proposals to estimulate the Industrial Sector

2. REACTIVATE INDUSTRIES:

Repeal Asset Tax.

Reduce exemptions to Value Added Tax.

Establish competitive pricing for government services and products.

Provide medium term financing with insurance guarantees

Improve competitiveness of labor.

Political and judicial estability

Page 24: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

3. COMPENSATE CURRENCY OVERVALUATION:

- New currency-exchange policy

- Flexible currency bands

- Competitive currency rates to allow strong internal market

- Export- development policies competitive with neighbors .

Proposals to estimulate the Industrial Sector

Page 25: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Improvement of employment /production index

Continuous improvement: competitiveness / productivity.

Increase in export capacity.

Increased investments.

Support/ growth of S.M.E.

Economic growth through manufacturing.

Achievements/Comitments

Page 26: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

•Fewer large companies and more SME’s

•Emergence of outsourcing

•SME’s displaying characteristics of larger companies

•Transition from family-run SME’s to professional firms

•SME’s without boundaries

Global Trends:

Page 27: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

• Resistance to cultural change: Move from family-run

to more business-oriented companies• High production costs and resistance to

technological innovation.

• Lack of supply chains among different-sized

companies.

• Traditional and inflexible management approaches.

• Little development of marketing strategies.

• Inadequate disbursement of financing toward SME’s

• Incentives for internationalization

SME: Issues to be addressed

Page 28: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

Coninpyme Program:A CONINDUSTRIA - Interamerican

Development Bank (IDB) Joint Initiative

with the Objective of Strengthening the

Competitiveness and Productivity of

Venezuelan Small and Medium Enterprise

An Example of support for SME

Page 29: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Venezuela’s Strategy is its IndustryVenezuela’s Strategy is its Industry

A comprehensive approach to assistance for SME

. Technology

. Training

. Financing

. Internationalization

Alliancesand

Synergy

a) Comprehensive Assessment

b) Improvement PlanPlan

c) ImplementationImplementation

Page 30: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Conclussions

• Time for a concerted effort

• Switch from planning to execution

• Achieve a real and competitive exchange rate

• Devaluation without a fiscal adjustment plan not feasible

• Achieving confidence is our challenge:

Changing the mind-set of Venezuelans

work = well -being

We have to change an economy based on oil revenues to become a productive and exporting country.................!

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Page 31: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

National Association of Manufacturers August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Confederación Venezolana de IndustrialesConfederación Venezolana de Industriales

Page 32: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

17.518.7

20.522.3

24.4

28.330.7

35.736.234.4

36.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Oct

-Dic

97

Ene-M

ar 98

Abr-J

un 98

Jul-S

ep 98

Oct

-Dic

98

Ene-M

ar 99

Abr-J

un 99

Jul-S

ep 99

Oct

-Dic

99

Ene-M

ar 00

Abr-J

un 00

Inflacíon

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Inflación Trimestral AnualizadaOctubre 1997 - Junio 2000

(en porcentaje)

Fuente: BCV y cálculos pripios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

Page 33: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

Nota. Todas las tasas de interes en promedios ponderados mensuales.Fuente: BCV y cálculos propios. Elaborado por la Unidad de Análisis Económico e Industrial.

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

3531

3433353637

49

414344

45

51

36 34 35 3442

40

33 32 32 31 3032

3029 28 28 27

3026 27

24

131317

1412121218

2023

2428

34

14 15 14 15

65555467

89101010

5 5 5 5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

En

e

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ab

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Ag

o

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p

Oct

No

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Dic

En

e

Fe

b

Ma

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y

Pagarés Tasa Activa Depósitos a 30 días Ahorros Inflación

Pagarés, Tasa Activa, Depósitos a 30 días, Ahorrosy la Inflación AcumuladaEnero 1999 - Mayo 2000

(en porcentaje)

Page 34: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Programa Coninpyme:Iniciativa de CONINDUSTRIA y el

Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo -BID-

para el Fortalecimiento de la Capacidad

Competitiva de las Pequeñas y Medianas

Empresas venezolanas

Una Experiencia de apoyo a la PYME

Page 35: National Association of Manufacturers  August, 2000

La Estrategia de Venezuela es la IndustriaLa Estrategia de Venezuela es la Industria

Enfoque integral de asistencia a la PYME

. Tecnología

. Formación

. Financiamiento

. Internacionalización

Alianzasy

Sinergias

a) Diagnóstico IntegralDiagnóstico Integral

b) Plan de MejorasPlan de Mejoras

c) ImplantaciónImplantación