natgas weekly
Transcript of natgas weekly
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Canada Research | Page 2 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Ticker Ticker Current Rating Target Price Total Retur
Primary Secondary Price (6-12 months) To Targe
NAL Energy Corporation NAE-TSX C$13.17 2 C$13.75 14%
Pengrowth Energy Corporation PGF-TSX PGH-NYSE C$12.89 2 C$13.00 7%
Perpetual Energy Inc. PMT-TSX C$4.04 3 C$3.50 -3%
PetroBakken Energy Ltd. PBN-TSX C$21.86 2 C$26.00 24%
Progress Energy Resources Corp. PRQ-TSX C$13.51 3 C$12.50 2%
Vermilion Energy Inc. VET-TSX C$47.32 2 C$50.00 13%
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. ZAR-TSX C$20.96 3 C$21.50 9%
Junior Oil & Gas ProducersCequence Energy Inc. CQE-TSX C$3.01 2 C$3.25 16%
Cinch Energy Corp. CNH-TSX C$1.03 2 C$1.30 21%
Compass Petroleum Ltd. CPO-TSXV C$1.75 2 C$2.00 23%
Crocotta Energy Inc. CTA-TSX C$2.42 R R R
Ember Resources Inc. EBR-TSX C$0.56 UR UR
Insignia Energy Ltd. ISN-TSX C$1.95 2 C$2.25 25%
Novus Energy Inc. NVS-TSXV C$1.29 2 C$1.50 16%
NuLoch Resources Inc. NLR-TSXV C$2.26 3 C$2.50 9%
Open Range Energy Corp. ONR-TSX C$2.64 2 C$3.25 35%
Orleans Energy Ltd. OEX-TSX C$2.51 3 C$2.75 17%
ProspEx Resources Inc. PSX-TSX C$1.85 UR UR
Reliable Energy Ltd. REL-TSXV C$0.43 1 C$0.60 48%
Renegade Petroleum Ltd. RPL-TSXV C$4.69 2 C$5.75 22%
Twin Butte Energy Inc. TBE-TSX C$2.79 2 C$3.00 4 8%
WestFire Energy Ltd. WFE-TSX C$8.33 1 C$10.50 38%
International Oil & GasAlange Energy Corp. ALE-TSXV C$0.30 R R R
Bankers Petroleum BNK-TSX C$8.68 1 C$20.00 130%
Cirrus Energy Corp. CYR-TSXV C$1.12 3 C$1.15 3%
Gran Tierra Energy GTE-TSX GTE-AMEX C$8.62 1 C$11.50 39%
Greenfields Petroleum Corporation GNF.S-TSXV C$10.00 2 C$13.50 35%
Niko Resources Ltd NKO-TSX C$95.89 4 C$85.00 -11%
Pacific Rubiales Energy PRE-TSX C$32.99 1 C$46.00 41%
Pan Orient Energy POE-TSXV C$6.95 2 C$10.50 51%
Parex Resources Inc. PXT-TSXV C$9.30 2 C$9.50 2%
PetroAmerica Oil Corp. PTA-TSXV C$0.53 2 C$1.10 108%
PetroDorado Energy Ltd. PDQ-TSXV C$0.69 R R R
Petromanas PMI-TSX C$0.42 2 C$1.25 198%
Petrominerales PMG-TSX C$37.71 4 C$25.00 -34%
Petronova Inc. PNA-TSXV C$1.64 2 C$2.50 52%
ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. SNM-TSXV C$1.27 2 C$1.50 18%
Suroco Energy Inc SRN-TSXV C$0.88 2 C$1.25 42%
Talisman Energy Inc. TLM-TSX TLM-NYSE C$23.25 2 C$26.00 13%
WesternZagros Resources WZR-TSXV C$0.57 4 C$0.10 -79%
Oil Sands & Producers
Alter NRG NRG-TSX C$1.40 2 C$3.25 64%
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. ATH-TSX C$16.68 2 C$18.50 23%
Canadian Oil Sands Limited COS-TSX C$28.99 3 C$28.00 10%
Cenovus Energy CVE-TSX CVE-NYSE C$34.20 2 C$41.00 26%
Connacher Oil and Gas CLL-TSX C$1.39 2 C$1.75 3 2%
OPTI Canada Inc. OPC-TSX C$0.35 3 C$0.75 12%
Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd. PBG-TSX C$23.80 3 C$29.00 15%
Southern Pacific Resources Corp. STP-TSXV C$1.86 1 C$2.75 67%
Suncor Energy Inc SU-TSX SU-NYSE C$41.97 3 C$43.00 4%
Oil & Gas Energy Services
Black Diamond Group Ltd. BDI-TSX C$23.70 2 C$26.00 13%
Bonnett's Energy Services Trust BT.UN-TSX C$3.09 UR URCalfrac Well Services CFW-TSX C$34.45 2 C$40.00 15%
Canyon Services Group Inc. FRC-TSX C$11.87 1 C$15.00 28%
Ensign Energy Services ESI-TSX C$15.73 3 C$17.00 9%
Essential Energy Services Ltd. ESN-TSX C$2.35 2 C$2.75 17%
GasFrac Energy Services Ltd. GFS-TSXV C$10.75 2 C$12.50 15%
Mullen Group Ltd. MTL-TSX C$19.83 3 C$19.00 0%
Precision Drilling Corporation PD-TSX PDS-NYSE C$10.42 3 C$11.50 9%
Pure Energy Services Ltd. PSV-TSX C$6.80 1 C$10.00 47%
Savanna Energy Services SVY-TSX C$7.43 3 C$7.50 1%
Secure Energy Services Inc. SES-TSX C$5.84 2 C$6.50 13%
Stoneham Drilling Trust SDG.UN-TSX C$16.30 2 C$19.00 16%
Trican Well Service TCW-TSX C$22.97 2 C$28.00 22%
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Energy Canada Research | Page 3 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Ticker Ticker Current Rating Target Price Total Retur
Primary Secondary Price (6-12 months) To Targe
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. TDG-TSX C$7.37 2 C$8.50 17%
Western Energy Services Corp. WRG-TSXV C$0.42 3 C$0.40 -4%
Raymond James Ltd.
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Canada Research | Page 4 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 1: Weekly Statistics
1 Week 1 Month 1 Year
Oil & Gas Prices 4-Feb 3-Feb % Chg Ago Ago Ago
Crude Oil
Nea r month WTI contra ct (US$/bbl) $89.03 $90.54 -1.7% $89.34 $90.30 $7 3.14
12-month WTI strip (US$/bbl) $96.11 $97.43 -1.4% $95.45 $93.82 $75.95
Canadian par (Cdn$/bbl) $87.00 $87.41 -0.5% $77.00 $81.78 $75.57
Heavy differential * (US$/bbl) $17.05 $21.49 -20.7% $18.90 $14.07
Natural Gas
Near month NYMEX contract (US$/mcf) $4.31 $4.34 -0.6% $4.32 $4.47 $5.42
12-month NYMEX strip (US$/mcf) $4.63 $4.63 -0.1% $4.60 $4.64 $5.84
Near month AECO contract (Cdn$/mcf) $3.82 $3.91 -2.4% $3.79 $4.06 $5.43
1 Week 1 Month 1 Year
FX 4-Feb 3-Feb % Chg Ago Ago Ago
Canadian dollar (US$/Cdn) $1.01 $1.01 0.4% $1.00 $1.00 $0.93
1 Week 1 Month 1 Year
Canadian Equity Indices 4-Feb 3-Feb % Chg Ago Ago Ago
TSX 300 Composite 13,792 13,841 -0.4% 13,438 13,396 11,129
TSX Energy Producers Index 3,570 3,608 -1.1% 3,523 3,465 3,024
TSX Energy Services Index 1,583 1,598 -1.0% 1,541 1,452 1,274
TSX Energy Trust Index 175 174 0.3% 175 171 141
* Source: Cenovus Energy Inc.
Exhibit 2: Upcoming Events
Mon-Feb-7
Sask Land Sale
Wed-Feb-9
AB Land Sale
Thu-Feb-10
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
Mon-Feb-21
Family Day
Tue-Feb-22
March WTI Contract Expiry
Thu-Feb-24
March NYMEX Contract Expiry
Mon-Feb-28
EIA Monthly Natural Gas Production Report
EIA Monthly Energy Review
Wed-Mar-9
AB Land Sale
Fri-Mar-11
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
Tue-Mar-22 April WTI Contract Expiry
Wed-Mar-23
AB Land Sale
Fri-Feb-25
March NYMEX Contract Expiry
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Energy Canada Research | Page 5 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 3: Market Indexes
3.a TSX vs. S&P 500 3.b CAD/USD
3.c TSX vs. TSX Capped Energy 3.d Canadian Energy Sub-indices
3.e TSX E&P Index vs. S&P E&P Index 3.f TSX Energy Service vs. OSX
Sources: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd.
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
TSX
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
S&P
TSX
S&P 500
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
TSX
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Energy
TSX
TSX Capped Energy
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
Percentage
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Percentage
E&P
Service
Trust
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
TSX Service
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
OSX
TSX Service
OSX
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
TSX E&P
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
S&P E&P
TSX E&P
S&P E&P
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Canada Research | Page 6 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 4: Weather
4.a Heating Degree Days (HDDs) 4.b Cumulative HDDs (bcf/degree day)
4.c Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) 4.d Cumulative CDDs (bcf/degree day)
4.e NOAA 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook 4.f NOAA One Month Temperature Outlook
Sources: Bloomberg, NOAA, Colorado State University, EIA, the Weather Network, Raymond James Ltd.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
J F M A M J J A S O N D
5-Yr Range
2011
2010
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
J F M A M J J A S O N D
5-Yr Range
2011
2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2005-2009
2011
2010
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2005-2009
2011
2010
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Energy Canada Research | Page 7 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 5: Natural Gas
5.a NYMEX Gas 1-Mo & Strip Price (US$/mcf) 5.b AECO 1-Mo & Strip Price (Cdn$/Gj)
5.c AECO Differential to NYMEX (US$/mcf) 5.d Oil to Gas Ratio (WTI/NYMEX Gas)
5.e U.S. Natural Gas Storage (Bcf) 5.f Change in U.S. Natural Gas Storage (Bcf)
Sources: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd.
$2
$4
$6
$8
Feb -09 A ug -09 Feb-10 A ug -10 Feb-11 A ug-11 Feb -12
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
Feb -09 A ug -0 9 Feb -10 A ug-10 Feb -11 A ug -11 Feb-12
($0.25)
$0.00
$0.25
$0.50
$0.75
$1.00
$1.25
$1.50
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
Feb -0 9 A ug -0 9 Feb -10 A ug -10 Feb -11 A ug -11 Feb -12
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
5x
7x
9x
11x
13x
15x
17x
19x
21x
23 x
25x
27x
Feb -09 A ug -0 9 Feb-10 A ug -10 Feb -11 A ug -11 Feb -12
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Canada Research | Page 8 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 6: Natural Gas (continued)
6.a Weekly U.S. LNG Imports (Bcf) 6.b LNG Netbacks - Landed (US$/mcf)
Destination Port Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Cove Poi nt $4.04 $7.75 $7.40
Al tami ra $4.24 $4.70 $4.53
La ke Cha rles $3.63 $4.04 $3.89
Spain $8.80 $9.20 $9.60
Belgi um $8.54 $8.43 $8.55
UK $8.45 $8.33 $8.43
India $8.60 $9.50 $10.10
Japan $9.85 $10.55 $10.45
Korea $9.95 $10.55 $10.56
6.c N.A. Gas Spot Prices (US$/mcf) - Friday Close
Sources: Bloomberg, Waterborne Energy, Raymond James Ltd.
0
5
10
15
20
25
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2010
2011
$4.19
$4.21
$4.32
$4.67$4.49
$4.78
$4.57 $4.47
$4.44
$4.74
$5.17
$5.15
$3.874
Niagara
NY City Gate
Ventura
Chicago
Katy Hub Henry Hub
Waha Hub
AECO
Sumas
Malin
Opal
San JuanTopock
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Energy Canada Research | Page 9 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 7: Natural Gas (continued)
7.a Cdn Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) 7.b Cdn Natural Gas Exports to U.S. (Bcf/d)
7.c U.S. Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) 7.d U.S. Natural Gas Demand (Bcf/d)
7.e U.S. Natural Gas Exports to Mex. (Bcf/d) 7.f NYMEX Gas Non-Commercial Positions
Sources: Bloomberg, Bentek Energy, Raymond James Ltd.
11
12
13
14
15
16
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Four-Year Range
Four-Year Average
2010
2009
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Three-Year Range
Three-Year A verage
2010
2009
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Four-Year Range
Four-Year Average
2010
2009
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Four-Year Range
Four-Year Average
2010
2009
-225,000
-200,000
-175,000
-150,000
-125,000
-100,000
Feb-
09
M ay-
09
Aug-
09
Nov-
09
Feb-
10
May-
10
Aug-
10
Nov-
10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Four-Year Range
Four-Year Average
2010
2009
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Canada Research | Page 10 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 8: Crude Oil
8.e Heavy Differential (in US$/bbl & % of Edmonton Par)
Sources:Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd.
8.a Light Oil 1-Mo & Strip Price (US$/bbl)
8.c Heavy Oil Prices (US$/bbl) 8.d Crude Oil Storage (# of days of inventory)
8.b Crude Oil Storage (000's of bbls)
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11
WTI
Brent
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
F eb- 09 M ay -0 9 A ug -0 9 N ov -0 9 F eb -10 M ay -1 0 A ug -1 0 N ov -1 0 F eb -1 1
Lloyd
Maya
16
18
20
22
24
26
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
Heavy $
Heavy %
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Energy Canada Research | Page 11 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 9: Crude Oil (continued) and Refining
9.e U.S. Refining Margins (US$/bbl)
Sources: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd.
9.c Weekly Tanker Rates (US$/bbl)
9.b OPEC Capacity and Production (mln bbl/d)
9.d WTI Oil Non - Commercial Positions
9.f Gasoline and Distillate Pricing (US$/bbl)
9.a U.S. Crude Imports (000's bbl/d)
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
F eb- 09 Ma y- 09 A ug -0 9 N ov -0 9 F eb- 10 Ma y- 10 A ug -1 0 N ov -10 F eb -1 1
OPEC Spare Capacity
OPEC Production
$1
$2
$3
$4
Fe b-09 May-09 Au g-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug -10 No v-10 Feb-11
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
321 Spread
211 Spread
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
Gasoline
Distillates
-50,000
-25,000
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11
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Canada Research | Page 12 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 10: Refining (continued)
10.c Distillates Storage (# of Days Fwd Supply)
Sources: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd.
10.d Distillates Demand (000's of bbls)
10.b Gasoline Demand (000's of bbls)10.a Gasoline Storage (# of Days Fwd Supply)
10.e Refinery Utilization Rate (% of Capacity)
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
20112010
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
18
20
22
24
26
28
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Five-Year Range
Five-Year Average
2011
2010
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Energy Canada Research | Page 13 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 11: Energy Services
11.a Weekly Rig Count 11.b Weekly Service Rig Count
11.c Contractor Utilization (13-Wk MA) 11.d Well Licenses (13-Wk Total)
11.e Well Completions 11.f Well Licenses
Sources: Nickle's Energy Group, CAODC, Raymond James Ltd.
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
NBR
PD
SDG
TDG
SVYESI
AKT
1,500
19,904
1,500
1,177
1,177
9,323
837
13,634
837
13,300
644
644
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Quarter to Date Year to Date Full Year
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
2008
2009
2008
2009
2010
2011
2010
2011
1,177
19,333
2,048
2,048
10,334
1,159
1,159
1,177
14,580
1,394
1,394
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Quarter to Date Year to Date Full Year
2008
2009
2010
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006-2009
2011
20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006-2009
2011
2010
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006-2009
2011
2010
WRG
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Canada Research | Page 14 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Exhibit 12: Energy Services (continued)
12.a U.S. Active Land Rigs Targeting Gas 12.b U.S. Active Land and GOM Rig Count
12.c U.S. State Drilling Rig Counts 12.d U.S. Active Rigs by Drilling Type
12.e U.S. Active Well Service Rig Count 12.f International Active Rig Count
Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes, Raymond James Ltd.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
Land Drilling Rigs
GOM Drilling Rigs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300Texas (left-hand scale)
Colorado (right-hand scale)
Arkansas (right-hand scale)
Wyoming (right-hand scale)
Lousiana (right-hand scale)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Horizontal
Directional
Vertical
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Offshore
Land
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2004
20052006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2007
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006
2008
20092010
2011
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Energy Canada Research | Page 15 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Raymond James Canadian Energy Coverage Share PerformanceTotal Returns Capital Returns (%) Total Returns Capital Returns (%)
Ticker Price 1-Year YTD QTD MoM MTD Week
52-Week
Low
52-Week
Hi Ticker Price 1-Year YTD QTD MoM MTD Week
52-Week
Low
52-Week
Hi
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. AAV $7.57 10% 12% 12% 1 1% 2% 4% 33% -9% Petrodorado Energy Ltd. PDQ $0.67 na -6% -6% -8% -4% -3% 235% -13%
Alange Energy Corp. ALE $0.30 -45% -44% -44% -42% -3% -2% 9% -63% Petromanas Energy Inc. PMI $0.43 42% 8 % 8% 13% 4% 1% 67% -46%
Alter NRG Corp. NRG $1.49 -34% 3% 3% 4% 6 % 6 % 33% -37% Petrominerales Ltd PMG $37.22 56% 12% 12% 12% -5% -5% 67% -7%
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX $25.41 25% 0% 0% -1% 2% 3% 35% -3% Precision Drilling Corporation PD $10.27 22% 7% 7% 6% -2% -1% 71% -4%
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. ATH $16.60 na 10% 10% 12% -2% -1% 68% -8% Progress Energy Ltd. PRQ $13.41 2% 6% 6% 7% -2% 1% 30% -7%
AvenEx Energy Corp. AVF $6.15 15% 0% 0% 1% -2% 0% 32% -5% ProspEx Resources Ltd. PSX $1.86 4% 42% 42% 38% 3% -1% 68% -25%
Bankers Petroleum Ltd. BNK $8.94 50% 18% 18% 1 8% 7% 9% 63% -8% Pure Energy S ervic es Ltd. PS V $6.70 154% 12% 12% 1 5% 11% 1 1% 215% -4%
Baytex Energy Corp. BTE $50.43 65% 8% 8% 7% 2% 3% 82% -2% Reliable Energy Ltd. REL $0.43 19% 26% 26% 30% 5% 4% 65% -4%
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR $12.04 26% 26% 26% 26% 6% 7% 52% -1% Renegade Petroleum Ltd. RPL $4.88 36% 20% 20% 22% 10% 12% 74% 4%
Black Diamond Group Limited BDI $23.70 36% 10% 10% 1 0% 0% 1% 48% -3% Savanna Energy S ervices Corp. S VY $7.39 3% 4% 4% 8% 4% 3% 46% -5%
Bonavista Energy Corporation BNP $29.69 27% 3 % 3% 1% 1% 2% 35% -1% Secure Energy Services Inc . SES $5.92 na 1 % 1 % 5% 1% 2% 91% -4%Calfrac Well S erv ic es Ltd. CFW $33.85 43% -1% - 1% 2 % 0% 0% 10 6% -6% S haMaran Petro leum Co rp S NM $1 .2 3 167% -10% -10% -11% -6% -9 % 2 46% -14%
Canadian Natural Re so urc es Limite d CNQ $ 44 .1 5 2 6% 0 % 0 % 0 % -1 % 2 % 3 8% -4 % S outhe rn P ac ific Re so urc e C orp. S TP $ 1.8 4 1 02 % 1 0% 10 % 9 % 5 % 8 % 1 39 % -2 %
Canadian Oil S ands Limited COS $28.54 1% 8 % 8 % 7% 4% 7% 18% -14% Stoneham Drilling Trust S DG $16.35 227% 40% 40% 38% 2% 9% 241% -5%
Canyon Services Group, Inc. FRC $11.83 219% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6% 238% -3% Suncor Energy Inc. SU $40.61 28% 6 % 6% 7% -2% 1% 36% -5%
Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE $33.88 na 2% 2 % 1% -2% 2% 40% -4% Suroco Energy Inc . SRN $0.86 56% 30% 30% 25% 1% 2% 146% -9%
Cequence Energy Ltd. CQE $2.91 -5% 48% 48% 49% 8% 10% 90% -13% Talisman Energy Inc. TLM $22.75 26% 3% 3% 2% -1% 3% 45% -2%
Cinch Energy Corp. CNH $1.03 -30% -16% -16% -13% -4% -16% 2% -46% Toromont Industries Ltd. TIH $31.70 17% 3 % 3% 3% 1% 1% 39% -2%
Cirrus Energy Corporation CYR $1.12 -37% 24% 24% 2 6% 5% 22% 129% -51% Trican Well S ervice Ltd. TCW $22.27 55% 11% 11% 1 3% 2% 5% 114% -6%
Connacher Oil and Gas Ltd. CLL $1.37 14% 3 % 3% 3% -5% -4% 25% -27% Trinidad Drilling Ltd. TDG $7.26 2% 15% 15% 1 6% 1% 4% 60% -10%
Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG $43.62 16% -1% -1% 0% -1% 1% 24% -4% Twin Butte Energy Ltd. TBE $2.91 143% 43% 43% 4 1% 9% 1 3% 155% 1%
Crew Energy Inc. CR $21.19 51% 11% 11% 12% 5% 7% 54% -1% V ermilion Energy Inc. VET $47.40 46% 3% 3% 4% 0% 1% 52% -1%
Crocotta Energy Inc. CTA $2.45 63% 39% 39% 4 1% 3% 7% 86% -6% Western Energy S ervic es Corp. WRG $0.44 -40% 22% 22% 2 6% 1 1% 11% 252% -40%
Daylight Energy Ltd DAY $10.16 -2% -2% -2% 0% 1% 2% 21% -12% Westernzagros Resources Ltd. WZR $0.56 -10% 18% 18% 1 8% 2% 2% 143% -40%
EnCana Corp. ECA $31.68 -4% 9% 9% 8% -2% -1% 14% -12% WestFire Energy Ltd. WFE $8.23 na 19% 19% 18% 3 % 4 % 83% -12%
Enerplus Corporation ERF $31.85 37% 4% 4 % 0% -1% 0% 75% -3% Zargon Energy Trust ZAR $21.00 6% -7% -7% 4% -7% -5% 24% -8%
Ensign Energy Services Inc. ESI $15.71 4% 5 % 5% 4% -3% 1% 38% -4%
Essential Energy S ervic es Ltd. ES N $2.33 85% 9% 9% 6% 2% 4% 118% -2%
Fairborne Energy Ltd. FEL $4.78 2% 13% 13% 10% 3% 3% 34% -9%
GAS FRAC Energ y S erv ic es, Inc . GFS $10.49 na 14% 1 4% 13 % 0% 1 0% 12 9% -1 3%
Gran Tierra Energy, Inc . GTE $8.92 77% 10% 10% 1 0% -1% 5% 152% -3%
Insignia Energy Ltd ISN $1.89 -15% 5% 5 % 5% -3% -5% 18% -22%
Legacy Oil + Gas Inc. LEG $15.74 40% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 60% -2%
Mullen Group Ltd. MTL $20.29 22% 20% 20% 19% 3% 3% 53% -3%
NAL Energy Corporation NAE $13.16 3% 2% 2% 0% 2% 2% 36% -6% T ota l Return s Capi ta l Return s (%)Nexen Inc. NXY $23.94 2% 5% 5% 5% -5% -1% 31% -11%
Niko Resources Ltd. NKO $95.85 -1% -7% -7% -7% -2% 0% 7% -17% 1-Year YTD QTD MoM MTD Week
Novus Energy Inc. NVS $1.28 44% 15% 15% 22% 10% 13% 75% -4% Ne ar-Mont h WT I Contra ct (US $/bbl) 22% -3% - 3% 0% -3% 0 % 31% -3%
NuLoch Resources, Inc . NLR $2.20 47% 6% 6% 10% -1% -1% 132% -12% Ne ar mont h NYM EX cont ra ct (US $/mcf) -2 0% - 2% - 2% - 8% -2 % 0 % 31% -22%
Open Range Energy Corp. ONR $2.62 11% 38% 38% 40% -5% 4% 138% -7% Domestic E&Ps 14% 10% 10% 11% 1 % 2% 46% -9%
OPTI Canada Inc. OPC $0.30 -85% -55% -55% -56% -57% -55% 58% -88% International E&Ps 29% 4% 4% 4 % -1% 1 % 95% -19%
Orleans Energy Ltd. OEX $2.50 -3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2 % 33% -22% Oil Sands Producers 1% -4% -4% -4% -8% -6% 49% -29%
Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. PRE $31.53 121% -7% -7% -7% -9% -8% 130% -12% Royalty Trusts 19% 2% 2% 1% 0 % 1 % 39% -6%
Pan Orient Energy Corp. POE $6.88 8% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2 % 46% -21% Oilfield Services 55% 9% 9% 9% 2% 3 % 97% -4%
Parex Resources Inc. PXT $9.65 na 12% 12% 14% 3% 3% 176% 0% O il-Weighted Producers & Trusts 23% 4% 4% 4% -1% 0% 74% -17%
Pengrowth Energy Corporation PGF $12.56 16% -2% -2% -4% -2% -3% 48% -6% Gas-Weighted Producers & Trusts 7% 14% 14% 1 4% 1% 2% 45% -13%
Perpetual Energy Inc. PMT $4.03 -19% 3% 3% 1% 0 % 2% 7% -26% Balanced Producers & Trusts 14% 2% 2% 1% 0 % 1 % 33% -5%
Petroamerica Oil Corp. PTA $0.51 na -16% -16% -18% -7% -7% 82% -31% Large-Cap 11% 5% 5% 4% -1% 2% 32% -7%
PetroBakken Energy Ltd. PBN $21.85 na 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 18% -28% Mid-Cap 27% 6% 6% 5% 1% 2% 56% -8%
Petrobank Energy and Resources, Ltd. PBG $23.56 -55% -7% -7% -8% 0% 2% 3% -60% Small-Cap 26% 7% 7% 7 % -1% 1% 81% -16%
Leaders & LaggardsWeekly Performance Summary Monthly Performance Summary
*This analysis does not include transaction cos ts and tax considerations. If included these costs could reduce an investor' s return. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Energy Sub-Sector Performance
52-Week
Hi
52-Week
Low
CYR
NVS
TBE
RPL
WRG
Oilfield Services
TSX
Domestic E&Ps
Forex
Royalty Trusts
International E&Ps
NYMEX Gas
WTI
Oil Sands Producers
PTA
PRE
SNM
CNH
OPC
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
CQE
CTA
TBE
ONR
SDG
Domestic E&Ps
Oilfield Services
International E&Ps
TSX
Forex
Royalty Trusts
WTI
Oil Sands Producers
NYMEX Gas
SNM
CNH
PTA
ALE
OPC
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
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Canada Research | Page 18 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
EnergyServices
Company
Closing
Target
Stock
Target
MktCap
Name
Symbol
Price
Price
Rating
Return
($mln)
$/sh
Yield
11E
12E
11E
12E
11E
12E
11E
12E
11E
12E
Analyst
BlackDiamond
BDI
$23.70
$26.00
OP2
14.5%
$389
$1.14
4.8%
$1.63
$1.79
14.5x
13.2x
$71
$75
6.6x
6.0x
10
.9%
12.0%
AB
Calfrac
CFW
$33.85
$40.00
OP2
18.6%
$1,459
$0.15
0.4%
$2.01
$3.08
16.8x
11.0x
$286
$367
6.6x
5.1x
11
.5%
15.7%
AB
Canyon
FRC
$11.83
$15.00
SB1
27.6%
$709
$0.10
0.8%
$1.14
$1.34
10.4x
8.8x
$129
$160
5.4x
4.0x
30
.4%
27.2%
AB
Ensign
ESI
$15.71
$17.00
MP3
10.6%
$2,404
$0.38
2.4%
$1.07
$1.17
14.7x
13.5x
$400
$425
6.0x
5.2x
10
.5%
12.0%
AB
Essential
ESN
$2.27
$2.75
OP2
21.1%
$162
$0.00
0.0%
$0.15
$0.22
15.4x
10.3x
$35
$39
4.2x
3.0x
6
.7%
9.2%
AB
GasFrac
GFS
$10.49
$12.50
OP2
19.2%
$628
$0.00
0.0%
$0.51
$1.20
20.4x
8.8x
$71
$140
8.9x
4.3x
11
.9%
23.4%
AB
Mullen
MTL
$20.29
$19.00
MP3
-1.4%
$1,597
$1.00
4.9%
$0.97
$1.08
20.9x
18.8x
$233
$244
8.5x
8.0x
6
.4%
6.9%
AB
Precision
PD
$10.27
$11.50
MP3
12.0%
$2,831
$0.00
0.0%
$0.64
$0.77
16.1x
13.3x
$521
$585
6.7x
5.6x
6
.8%
7.5%
AB
Pure
PSV
$6.70
$10.00
SB1
49.3%
$159
$0.00
0.0%
$0.79
$1.05
8.5x
6.4x
$43
$55
4.0x
2.7x
14
.0%
16.2%
AB
Savanna
SVY
$7.39
$7.50
MP3
1.5%
$584
$0.00
0.0%
$0.33
$0.52
22.1x
14.3x
$101
$122
7.0x
5.5x
4
.0%
5.3%
AB
Secure
SES
$5.92
$6.50
OP2
9.8%
$377
$0.00
0.0%
$0.20
$0.44
29.1x
13.4x
$39
$64
9.6x
6.1x
8
.8%
16.1%
AB
Stoneham
SDG.UN
$16.35
$19.00
OP2
16.2%
$126
$0.00
0.0%
$1.48
$1.73
11.0x
9.5x
$32
$34
5.0x
4.0x
8
.8%
10.2%
AB
Toromont
TIH
$31.70
$36.00
OP2
15.6%
$2,444
$0.64
2.0%
$2.08
NA
15.2x
NA
$332
NA
8.4x
NA
NA
NA
BC/AB
Trican
TCW
$22.27
$28.00
OP2
26.2%
$3,195
$0.10
0.4%
$1.45
$1.88
15.4x
11.8x
$506
$611
6.7x
5.2x
18
.2%
21.0%
AB
Trinidad
TDG
$7.26
$8.50
OP2
19.8%
$877
$0.20
2.8%
$0.39
$0.49
18.5x
14.8x
$225
$240
6.2x
5.4x
5
.6%
6.6%
AB
Western
WRG
$0.44
$0.40
MP3
-9.1%
$332
$0.00
0.0%
$0.03
$0.03
15.5x
13.0x
$52
$59
7.3x
6.0x
11
.5%
12.8%
AB
Median
15.9%
0.2%
$0.88
$1.08
15.4x
13.0x
6.6x
5.2x
10
.5%
12.0%
Source:Bloomberg,RaymondJamesLtd.
Dividen
ds
ROIC
EV/EBITDA
EBITDA
P/E(fd)
EPS(fd)
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Energy Canada Research | Page 19 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Important Investor Disclosures
Raymond James is the global brand name for Raymond James & Associates (RJA) and its non-US affiliates worldwide.
Raymond James & Associates is located at The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL
33716, (727) 567-1000. Affiliates include the following entities, which are responsible for the distribution of research in
their respective areas. In Canada, Raymond James Ltd., Suite 2200, 925 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2, (604)
659-8200. In Latin America, Raymond James Latin America, Ruta 8, km 17, 500, 91600 Montevideo, Uruguay, 00598 2 518
2033. In Europe, Raymond James European Equities, 40, rue La Boetie, 75008, Paris, France, +33 1 45 61 64 90.This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident
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The information provided is as of the date above and subject to change, and it should not be deemed a recommendation to
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system. Several factors enter into the compensation determination for an analyst, including i) research quality and overall
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are only permitted to sell those positions five days after the rating has been lowered to Underperform. The covering
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Canada Research | Page 20 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
analyst and/or research associate owns shares of the common stock of Leggett & Platt. The covering analyst and/or
research associate owns shares of the common stock of Sprint Nextel Corp. The Analyst and/or Associate or a member of
his/their household has a long position in the securities of Trinidad Drilling Ltd. The Analyst and/or Associate or a
member of his/their household has a long position in the securities of Toromont Industries.
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No
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Ratings and Definitions
Raymond James Ltd. (Canada) definitions
Strong Buy (SB1) The stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 15% and outperform the
S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next six months. Outperform (MO2) The stock is expected to appreciate and
outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) The stock is expected to
perform generally in line with the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months and is potentially a source of
funds for more highly rated securities. Underperform (MU4) The stock is expected to underperform the S&P/TSX
Composite Index or its sector over the next six to twelve months and should be sold.
Raymond James & Associates (U.S.) definitions
Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the S&P 500 over the nextsix to 12 months. For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, a total return of at
least 15% is expected to be realized over the next 12 months. Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and outperform
the S&P 500 over the next 12-18 months. For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain
MLPs, an Outperform rating is used for securities where we are comfortable with the relative safety of the dividend and
expect a total return modestly exceeding the dividend yield over the next 12-18 months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected
to perform generally in line with the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform
the S&P 500 or its sector over the next six to 12 months and should be sold. Suspended (S) The rating and price target have
been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply
with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing
investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security
and should not be relied upon.
Raymond James Latin American rating definitionsStrong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 25.0% over the next twelve months.
Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of between 15.0% and 25.0% over the next twelve
months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform in line with the underlying country index. Underperform (MU4)
Expected to underperform the underlying country index.
Raymond James European Equities rating definitions
Strong Buy (1) Absolute return expected to be at least 10% over the next 12 months and perceived best performer in the
sector universe. Buy (2) Absolute return expected to be at least 10% over the next 12 months. Fair Value (3) Stock
currently trades around its fair price and should perform in the range of -10% to +10% over the next 12 months. Sell (4)
Expected absolute drop in the share price of more than 10% in next 12 months.
Suitability Categories (SR)
For stocks rated by Raymond James & Associates only, the following Suitability Categories provide an assessment ofpotential risk factors for investors. Suitability ratings are not assigned to stocks rated Underperform (Sell). Projected 12-
month price targets are assigned only to stocks rated Strong Buy or Outperform.
Total Return (TR) Lower risk equities possessing dividend yields above that of the S&P 500 and greater stability of principal.
Growth (G) Low to average risk equities with sound financials, more consistent earnings growth, possibly a small dividend,
and the potential for long-term price appreciation.
Aggressive Growth (AG) Medium or higher risk equities of companies in fast growing and competitive industries, with less
predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets.
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Energy Canada Research | Page 21 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
High Risk (HR) Companies with less predictable earnings (or losses), rapidly changing market dynamics, financial and
competitive issues, higher price volatility (beta), and risk of principal.
Venture Risk (VR) Companies with a short or unprofitable operating history, limited or less predictable revenues, very high
risk associated with success, and a substantial risk of principal.
Rating Distributions
Coverage Universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Distribution
RJL RJA RJL RJA
Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) 71% 53% 50% 24%
Market Perform (Hold) 27% 40% 33% 11%
Underperform (Sell) 2% 7% 0% 17%
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from all companies under research coverage within the next three months.
Company Name DisclosureAlter NRG Within the last 12 months, Alter NRG has paid for all or a material portion of the travel
costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Arc Resources Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Arc Resources Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Arc Resources Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Arc Resources Ltd..
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Athabasca Oil Sands Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 monthswith respect to Athabasca Oil Sands Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Athabasca Oil Sands Corp..
AvenEx Energy Corp. Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to AvenEx Energy Corp..
Bankers Petroleum Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Bankers Petroleum.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Bankers Petroleum.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided non-investment banking securities-related services
within the last 12 months with respect to Bankers Petroleum.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Bankers Petroleum.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for services other than investment
banking within the last 12 months with respect to Bankers Petroleum.
Baytex Energy Corp. Ruston Goepel who is an officer and director of Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates serves
as a director of Baytex Energy Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Baytex Energy Corp..
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Name Disclosure
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Birchcliff Energy Ltd..
Black Diamond Group Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Black Diamond Group Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Black Diamond Group Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Black Diamond Group Ltd..
Canadian Natural Resources
Ltd
Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
Within the last 12 months, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd has paid for all or a material
portion of the travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Canyon Services Group Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Canyon Services Group Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Canyon Services Group Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Canyon Services Group Inc..
Cenovus Energy Within the last 12 months, Cenovus Energy has paid for all or a material portion of the
travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Cinch Energy Corp. Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Cinch Energy Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Cinch Energy Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Cinch Energy Corp..
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last 12 months with respect to Cinch Energy Corp..
Compass Petroleum Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Compass Petroleum Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Compass Petroleum Ltd..
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within the last 12 months with respect to Compass Petroleum Ltd..
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last 12 months with respect to Compass Petroleum Ltd..
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banking within the last 12 months with respect to Compass Petroleum Ltd..
Connacher Oil and Gas Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Connacher Oil and Gas.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Connacher Oil and Gas.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Connacher Oil and Gas.
Daylight Energy Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Daylight Energy Ltd..
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with respect to Daylight Energy Ltd..
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Energy Canada Research | Page 23 of 41
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Name Disclosure
EnCana Corporation Within the last 12 months, EnCana Corporation has paid for all or a material portion of the
travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Enerplus Corporation Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Enerplus Corporation.
Essential Energy Services Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Essential Energy Services Ltd..
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with respect to Essential Energy Services Ltd..
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last 12 months with respect to Essential Energy Services Ltd..
GasFrac Energy Services Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to GasFrac Energy Services Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to GasFrac Energy Services Ltd..
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last 12 months with respect to GasFrac Energy Services Ltd..
Gran Tierra Energy Raymond James Ltd. has provided non-investment banking securities-related services
within the last 12 months with respect to Gran Tierra Energy.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for services other than investment
banking within the last 12 months with respect to Gran Tierra Energy.
Greenfields Petroleum
Corporation
Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Greenfields Petroleum Corporation.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Greenfields Petroleum Corporation.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Greenfields Petroleum Corporation.
Legacy Oil & Gas Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Legacy Oil & Gas Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 monthswith respect to Legacy Oil & Gas Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Legacy Oil & Gas Inc..
Leggett & Platt Raymond James & Associates received non-investment banking securities-related
compensation from LEG within the past 12 months.
NAL Energy Corporation Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of NAL Energy Corporation.
Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to NAL Energy Corporation.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to NAL Energy Corporation.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within thelast 12 months with respect to NAL Energy Corporation.
Nexen Inc. Within the last 12 months, Nexen Inc. has paid for all or a material portion of the travel
costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Niko Resources Ltd Within the last 12 months, Niko Resources Ltd has paid for all or a material portion of the
travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Name Disclosure
Novus Energy Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Novus Energy Inc..
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with respect to Novus Energy Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Novus Energy Inc..
NuLoch Resources Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to NuLoch Resources Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to NuLoch Resources Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to NuLoch Resources Inc..
Open Range Energy Corp. Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Open Range Energy Corp..
Pacific Rubiales Energy Within the last 12 months, Pacific Rubiales Energy has paid for all or a material portion of
the travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Parex Resources Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Parex Resources Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Parex Resources Inc..
Pengrowth Energy Corporation Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Pengrowth Energy Corporation.
Perpetual Energy Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Perpetual Energy Inc..
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PetroAmerica Oil Corp. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to PetroAmerica Oil Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to PetroAmerica Oil Corp..
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PetroDorado Energy Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to PetroDorado Energy Ltd..
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last 12 months with respect to PetroDorado Energy Ltd..
Petromanas Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Petromanas.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 monthswith respect to Petromanas.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Petromanas.
Progress Energy Resources
Corp.
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Progress Energy Resources Corp..
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Name Disclosure
Reliable Energy Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Reliable Energy Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Reliable Energy Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Reliable Energy Ltd..
Renegade Petroleum Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Renegade Petroleum Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Renegade Petroleum Ltd..
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last 12 months with respect to Renegade Petroleum Ltd..
Secure Energy Services Inc. Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Secure Energy Services Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Secure Energy Services Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Secure Energy Services Inc..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Secure Energy Services Inc..
ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to ShaMaran Petroleum Corp..
Southern Pacific Resources
Corp.
Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Southern Pacific Resources Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Southern Pacific Resources Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Southern Pacific Resources Corp..
Sprint Nextel Corp. Raymond James & Associates received non-investment banking securities-related
compensation from S within the past 12 months.
Suroco Energy Inc Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Suroco Energy Inc.
Toromont Industries Within the last 12 months, Toromont Industries has paid for all or a material portion of the
travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
TransDigm Group, Inc. Raymond James & Associates received non-securities-related compensation from TDG
within the past 12 months.
Trinidad Drilling Ltd. Within the last 12 months, Trinidad Drilling Ltd. has paid for all or a material portion of the
travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.
Raymond James Ltd. has provided non-investment banking securities-related services
within the last 12 months with respect to Trinidad Drilling Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within thelast 12 months with respect to Trinidad Drilling Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for services other than investment
banking within the last 12 months with respect to Trinidad Drilling Ltd..
Twin Butte Energy Inc. Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Twin Butte Energy Inc..
Vermilion Energy Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Vermilion Energy Inc..
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Canada Research | Page 26 of 41 Energy
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Company Name Disclosure
Western Energy Services Corp. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to Western Energy Services Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to Western Energy Services Corp..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to Western Energy Services Corp..
WestFire Energy Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the
last 12 months with respect to WestFire Energy Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months
with respect to WestFire Energy Ltd..
Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the
last 12 months with respect to WestFire Energy Ltd..
Stock Charts, Target Prices, and Valuation Methodologies
Valuation Methodology: The Raymond James methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes a number of
qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall
attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, amongother factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or company-
specific occurrences.
Risk Factors
General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on
Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could
change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or
new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments
with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective
valuation; or (4) External factors that affect the U.S. economy, interest rates, the U.S. dollar or major segments of the
economy could alter investor confidence and investment prospects. International investments involve additional risks suchas currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability.
Risks - Alter NRG
1. Limited financial resources - Alter Nrg must rely on its ability to borrow funds or sell additional equity to finance its costs
of developing projects. Alter Nrg's ability to raise funds is subject to capital market risks, such as the availability and cost of
capital as well as the company's credibility. If financing is unavailable, projects may be delayed, development may be
indefinitely postponed, or the future value of the company's investment may be impaired. 2. Project execution risks -
Gasification projects are in early stages of development, with inherent risks such as cost overruns due to the changes in
availability and costs of materials, equipment and qualified personnel. 3. Regulatory risks - The development of gasification
projects are dependent on the company receiving the necessary regulatory approvals. A failure to obtain these approvals
on a timely basis or with acceptable terms and conditions could result in delays, abandonment or restructuring of projects
and increased costs, all of which could have a material adverse effect on Alter Nrg. 4. Risks related to commodity prices,
exchange rates, interest rates, tipping fees, political factors and general economic conditions. 5. Early Development - Thecompany is in early stages of development and have no history of earnings or operations. Future development and
profitability is highly dependent on development of projects. 6. Competition - The gasification industry is highly competitive
and Alter Nrg competes with a substantial number of other companies. Alter Nrg's technology is one of many alternatives in
gasification - and although it benefits from being the most advanced in the plasma gasification space - there can be no
assurance that this technology will be adopted on a wide scale.
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Risks - Novus Energy Ltd.
1) Operational risks, including weather related risks; 2) Project execution risks, including cost overrun risks due to material
and labour costs escalation and productivity issues; 3) Exploration and development risks primarily on conventional
production related to locating commercially viable reserves and carrying out successful drilling programs; 4) Environmental
risks, including costs of new equipment and associated construction costs for maintaining environmental integrity; 5)
Regulatory risks with regard to oil and gas projects. 6) Commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk.
Risks - Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
1) Operational risks, including weather related risks in offshore Africa or North Sea; 2) Project execution risks, especiallywith large-scale projects such as the oil sands and offshore Africa and North Sea, including cost overrun risks due to
material and labor costs escalation and productivity issues; 3) Exploration and development risks primarily on conventional
production related to locating commercially viable reserves and carrying out successful drilling programs; 4) Political risks in
some countries such as Africa and UK. 5) Environmental risks, including costs of new equipment and associated
construction costs for maintaining environmental integrity; 6) Regulatory risks with regard to international and the oil sands
projects.
Risks - Alange Energy Corp.
International oil & gas companies within our research universe are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to:
environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency
risk. Any difference between our oil & gas price forecasts and realized commodity prices will likely have an impact on our
earnings and valuation estimates for the international oil & gas companies in our research coverage universe. Alange's oil &
gas operations are inherently complex and exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the companys control.These include: environmental compliance issues; personal accidents; production problems; availability of labor and
equipment, and interruption due to inclement, weather conditions, road closures, and/or militant activities. Other risks
include, but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding capital and operating costs; aging equipment and facilities which
could lead to increased costs; actions taken by Colombia's government; and changes in fiscal regimes.
Risks - Petromanas Energy Inc.
Competition - The oil & gas industry is highly competitive and the corporation competes with a substantial number of
companies. There can be no assurance that such competitors will not substantially increase the resources devoted to the
development and marketing of products and services that compete with those of Petromanas or enter markets that
Petromanas is active in.
Commodity Price Volatility - The corporation is subject to the fluctuations in oil, natural gas and other commodity energy
prices. It is anticipated that the international oil & gas industry has an inherently high capital cost due to large construction
projects. Nevertheless, changes in commodity prices could result in a decision by Petromanas to suspend or reduceoperations because such operations are no longer economically viable. If production is not suspended or reduced during
such period, the low differential between the price of the corporations end products and the cost of production could
lower Petromanas revenues.
Reserve and resource risks - Petromanas currently provides both internal and third party resource evaluations on its assets.
These calculations remain dependent on long-term oil & gas pricing, geological assumptions made, and the companys
ability to confirm/discover oil &/or gas on said assets. The company does not currently have any booked reserves, and as
such, an investment in Petromanas is subject to exploration activity risks.
Drilling risks - Petromanas is focused on oil & gas exploration, including the potential to drill relatively deep wells (~5,000+
meters). These wells inherently carry a higher operational risk than shallower wells due to, amongst other risks, the higher
pressures and temperatures typically encountered at these depths.
Regulatory and Political - Petromanas operations are subject to a variety international laws, regulations and guidelines,
including laws and regulations relating to health and safety, the conduct of operations, the protection of the environment
and the manufacture, management, transportation, storage and disposal of certain materials used in operations. Changes
to laws, regulations and guidelines due to environmental changes, unforeseen environmental effects, general economic
conditions and other matters may cause adverse effects to operations. The companys properties are located in Albania.
The companys operations, financial results, and valuation could be adversely affected by events beyond its control taken
by the current or future governments in Albania with respect to policy changes regarding taxation, regulation, and other
business environment changes.
Environmental Liability - Petromanas is subject to various environmental laws and regulations enacted in the jurisdictions in
which it operates, including the governance of the manufacturing, processing, importation, transportation, handling and
disposal of certain materials used in operations. Petromanas may become liable for damages against which it cann
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Risks - Pacific Rubiales Energy
International oil & gas companies within our research universe are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to:
environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency
risk. Any difference between our oil & gas price forecasts and realized commodity prices will likely have an impact on our
earnings and valuation estimates for the international oil & gas companies in our research coverage universe. Pacific
Rubiales' oil & gas operations are inherently complex and exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the
companys control. These include: environmental compliance issues; personal accidents; production problems; availability
of labor and equipment, and interruption due to inclement, weather conditions, road closures, and/or local protests. Other
risks include, but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding capital and operating costs; aging equipment and facilities
which could lead to increased costs; actions taken by host governments; and changes in fiscal regimes.
Risks - Parex Resources Inc.
International oil & gas companies within our research universe are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to:
environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency
risk. Any difference between our oil & gas price forecasts and realized commodity prices will likely have an impact on our
earnings and valuation estimates for the international oil & gas companies in our research coverage universe. Parex
Resources oil & gas operations are inherently complex and exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the
companys control. These include: environmental compliance issues; personal accidents; production problems; availability
of labor and equipment, and interruption due to inclement, weather conditions, road closures, and/or labour union strike
activities. Other risks include, but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding capital and operating costs; aging equipment
and facilities which could lead to increased costs; actions taken by, Colombia's, and Trinidad & Tobago's governments; and
changes in fiscal regimes.
Risks - Petroamerica Oil Corp.
International oil & gas companies within our research universe are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to:
environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency
risk. Any difference between our oil & gas price forecasts and realized commodity prices will likely have an impact on our
earnings and valuation estimates for the international oil & gas companies in our research coverage universe. Petro
Andina's oil & gas operations are inherently complex and exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the
companys control. These include: environmental compliance issues; personal accidents; production problems; availability
of labor and equipment, and interruption due to inclement, weather conditions, road closures, and/or labour union strike
activities. Other risks include, but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding capital and operating costs; aging equipment
and facilities which could lead to increased costs; actions taken by, Argentina's, Colombia's, and Trinidad & Tobago's
governments; and changes in fiscal regimes.
Risks - Nexen Inc.
Risks include, but are not limited to, exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices (primarily oil & gas), as well as variations
in foreign exchange rates and interest rates. Operational risks include weather-related interruptions, dry holes, restricted
access to facilities, unplanned pipeline shutdowns, unexpected production delays and cost overruns. Also, higher than
expected decline rates could result in lower production. Other notable risks include change in government policies and
legislation (e.g. income tax and royalty), counterparty risk, environmental concerns, and changes in reserve estimates.
Lower cash flow could impact Nexens ability to service and/or refinance debt.
Risks - Cenovus Energy
Key risks include cash flow exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign exchange rates, more specifically the
relationship between the Canadian and U.S. dollar. Due to the nature of its operations, Cenovus also faces risks associated
with weather-related interruptions, dry holes, restricted access to facilities, unplanned pipeline shutdowns and unexpected
production delays. Also, the company is exposed to the risk that unexpected increases in decline rates lower productionvolumes, resulting in lower cash flow. Unexpected cost overruns, change in government policies (local, provincial and
federal) and interest rate fluctuations could also negatively impact net income and cash flow.
Risks - Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
1) Operational risks, including weather related risks; 2) Project execution risks, including cost overrun risks due to material
and labor costs escalation and productivity issues; 3) Exploration and development risks primarily on conventional
production related to locating commercially viable reserves and carrying out successful drilling programs; 4) Environmental
risks, including costs of new equipment and associated construction costs for maintaining environmental integrity; 5)
Regulatory risks with regard to oil and gas projects. 6) Commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk.
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Risks - ARC Resources Ltd.
Risks include, but are not limited to, exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices (primarily oil & gas), as well as variations
in foreign exchange rates and interest rates. Operational risks include weather-related interruptions, dry holes, restricted
access to facilities, unplanned pipeline shutdowns, unexpected production delays and cost overruns. Also, higher than
expected decline rates could result in lower production. Other notable risks include change in government policies and
legislation (e.g. income tax and royalty), counterparty risk, environmental concerns, and changes in reserve estimates.
Lower cash flow could impact Arcs ability to service and/or refinance debt.
Risks - AvenEx Energy Corp.Risks include, but are not limited to, exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices (primarily oil & gas), as well as variations
in foreign exchange rates and interest rates. Operational risks include weather-related interruptions, dry holes, restricted
access to facilities, unplanned pipeline shutdowns, unexpected production delays and cost overruns. Also, higher than
expected decline rates could result in lower production. Other notable risks include change in government policies and
legislation (e.g. income tax and royalty), counterparty risk, environmental concerns, and changes in reserve estimates.
Lower cash flow could impact Avenirs ability to service and/or refinance debt. Avenir may be negatively affected if the
portfolio of Real Estate assets which it owns decreases in value.
Risks - Black Diamond Group Ltd.
Some of the specific risk factors that pertain to the projected 6 to 12 month stock price target for Black Diamond are as
follows: i) The demand, pricing and terms for modular structures is highly dependant on the level of industry activity for
Canadian resource companies and infrastructure development. The level of activity is influenced by several factors outside
of Black Diamonds control, including but not necessarily limited to; commodity prices, the cost of exploring for anddeveloping resources, available infrastructure capacity, and the ability of project oriented resource companies to raise
equity capital or debt financing. ii) The modular structures market is highly competitive with both regional suppliers and
large multi-national companies in the industry. Although Black Diamond believes that it is continuing to build market share,
it does not presently hold a dominant market position with respect to any of the services it offers. iii) Future development
in Albertas oil sands is subject to environmental regulations which could potentially reduce overall investment in the
region. A material portion of Black Diamonds near term growth is dependant on continued investment in the oil sands.
Risks - Birchcliff Energy Ltd.
1) Operational risks, including weather related risks; 2) Project execution risks, including cost overrun risks due to material
and labor costs escalation and productivity issues; 3) Exploration and development risks primarily on conventional
production related to locating commercially viable reserves and carrying out successful drilling programs; 4) Environmental
risks, including costs of new equipment and associated construction costs for maintaining environmental integrity; 5)
Regulatory risks with regard to oil and gas projects. 6) Commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk.
Risks - Bankers Petroleum
International oil & gas companies within our research universe are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to:
environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency
risk. Any difference between our oil & gas price forecasts and realized commodity prices will likely have an impact on our
earnings and valuation estimates for the international oil & gas companies in our research coverage universe. Bankers' oil &
gas operations are inherently complex and exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the companys control.
These include: environmental compliance issues; personal accidents; production problems; availability of labor and
equipment, and interruption due to inclement, weather conditions, road closures, and/or local protests. Other risks include,
but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding capital and operating costs; aging equipment and facilities which could
lead to increased costs; actions taken by Albania's governments; and changes in fiscal regimes.
Risks - Bonavista Energy Corporation
Risks include, but are not limited to, exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices (primarily oil & gas), as well as variations
in foreign exchange rates and interest rates. Operational risks include weather-related interruptions, dry holes, restricted
access to facilities, unplanned pipeline shutdowns, unexpected production delays and cost overruns. Also, higher than
expected decline rates could result in lower production. Other notable risks include change in government policies and
legislation (e.g. income tax and royalty), counterparty risk, environmental concerns, and changes in reserve estimates.
Lower cash flow could impact Bonavistas ability to service and/or refinance debt.