Nashville housing market stats and predictions
23
Mortgage Rate Forecast ( f %i ?) (Average Rate of 5.5%in 2015 ?) 30‐year Mortgage % 5 6 7 3 4 5 0 1 2
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As presented by Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors
Transcript of Nashville housing market stats and predictions
Mortgage Rate Forecast( f % i ?)(Average Rate of 5.5% in 2015 ?)
30‐year Mortgage%
567
y g g
345
012
Monthly Pending Home Sales Index(Seasonally Adjusted)
130
110
120Homebuyer Tax Credit
100
110
80
90
702001 Jan
2002 Jan
2003 Jan
2004 Jan
2005 Jan
2006 Jan
2007 Jan
2008 Jan
2009 Jan
2010 Jan
2011 Jan
2012 Jan
2013 Jan‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
Source: NAR
Existing Home SalesExisting Home Sales7,500,000
6,000,0006,500,0007,000,000
4,500,0005,000,0005,500,000
3 000 0003,500,0004,000,000, ,
3,000,000
2000
‐Jan
000 ‐A
ug001 ‐M
ar2001
‐Oct
002 ‐M
ay002 ‐D
ec2003
‐Jul
2004
‐Feb
004 ‐Sep
2005
‐Ap
r005 ‐N
ov2006
‐Jun
2007
‐Jan
007 ‐A
ug008 ‐M
ar2008
‐Oct
009 ‐M
ay009 ‐D
ec2010
‐Jul
2011
‐Feb
011 ‐Sep
2012
‐Ap
r012 ‐N
ov
2 20 20 2 20 2 2 2 2 20 2 2 20 20 2 20 2 2 2 2 20
Buyer and Seller Traffic f ®from REALTOR® Survey
Buyer Seller
60.0
70.0
Buyer Seller
30.0
40.0
50.0
0 0
10.0
20.0
30.0
0.0
008 ‐Jan
008 ‐A
pr
2008
‐Jul
008 ‐O
ct
009 ‐Jan
009 ‐A
pr
2009
‐Jul
009 ‐O
ct
010 ‐Jan
010 ‐A
pr
2010
‐Jul
010 ‐O
ct
011 ‐Jan
011 ‐A
pr
2011
‐Jul
011 ‐O
ct
012 ‐Jan
012 ‐A
pr
2012
‐Jul
012 ‐O
ct
20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20 20 20 2 20
Second Home SalesSecond Home Sales 4000 In thousands
3000
3500
2000
2500
Investment
1000
1500 Vacation
0
500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Housing Affordability IndexHousing Affordability Index220
180
200
160
180
120
140
1002000 Jan
2001 Jan
2002 Jan
2003 Jan
2004 Jan
2005 Jan
2006 Jan
2007 Jan
2008 Jan
2009 Jan
2010 Jan
2011 Jan
2012 Jan
2013 Jan‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
Existing Home Inventory( l )(Bouncing at 13‐year lows)
4500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
2000000
2500000
3000000
500000
1000000
1500000
0
500000
2000 Jan
2001 Jan
2002 Jan
2003 Jan
2004 Jan
2005 Jan
2006 Jan
2007 Jan
2008 Jan
2009 Jan
2010 Jan
2011 Jan
2012 Jan
2013 Jan‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
Shadow Inventory … Falling(Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process)(Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process)
million units
5.0Distressed Sales
3.5
4.0
4.5Distressed Sales Market Share
2010 33%
2 0
2.5
3.02010 … 33%
2011 … 33%
1.0
1.5
2.02012 … 25%
2013 15%
0.0
0.5
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q1
Q3
2013 … 15%
2014 … 8%
2000
‐2000
‐2001
‐2001
‐2002
‐2002
‐2003
‐2003
‐2004
‐2004
‐2005
‐2005
‐2006
‐2006
‐2007
‐2007
‐2008
‐2008
‐2009
‐2009
‐2010
‐2010
‐2011
‐2011
‐2012
‐2012
‐2015 … 5%
Foreclosures Rapidly Falling in Non Judicial Statesin Non‐Judicial States
Example: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in AZ, CA , MIAZ MI
101214
AZ MI
%
68
10
024
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2005
‐Q
2005
‐Q
2005
‐Q
2005
‐Q
2006
‐Q
2006
‐Q
2006
‐Q
2006
‐Q
2007
‐Q
2007
‐Q
2007
‐Q
2007
‐Q
2008
‐Q
2008
‐Q
2008
‐Q
2008
‐Q
2009
‐Q
2009
‐Q
2009
‐Q
2009
‐Q
2010
‐Q
2010
‐Q
2010
‐Q
2010
‐Q
2011
‐Q
2011
‐Q
2011
‐Q
2011
‐Q
2012
‐Q
2012
‐Q
2012
‐Q
Foreclosures Clogged in Judicial States Example Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in CT and IL
CT IL
10
12
CT IL
%
6
8
2
4
0
5 ‐Q
15 ‐Q
25 ‐Q
35 ‐Q
46 ‐Q
16 ‐Q
26 ‐Q
36 ‐Q
47 ‐Q
17 ‐Q
27 ‐Q
37 ‐Q
48 ‐Q
18 ‐Q
28 ‐Q
38 ‐Q
49 ‐Q
19 ‐Q
29 ‐Q
39 ‐Q
40 ‐Q
10 ‐Q
20 ‐Q
30 ‐Q
41 ‐Q
11 ‐Q
21 ‐Q
31 ‐Q
42 ‐Q
12 ‐Q
22 ‐Q
3
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
TennesseeSeriously Delinquent Mortgages
TN
7
8
TN
%
4
5
6
1
2
3
0
1
5 ‐Q
15 ‐Q
25 ‐Q
35 ‐Q
46 ‐Q
16 ‐Q
26 ‐Q
36 ‐Q
47 ‐Q
17 ‐Q
27 ‐Q
37 ‐Q
48 ‐Q
18 ‐Q
28 ‐Q
38 ‐Q
49 ‐Q
19 ‐Q
29 ‐Q
39 ‐Q
40 ‐Q
10 ‐Q
20 ‐Q
30 ‐Q
41 ‐Q
11 ‐Q
21 ‐Q
31 ‐Q
42 ‐Q
12 ‐Q
22 ‐Q
32 ‐Q
4
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
Home Price Change (% change from one year ago)
Blue = NAR Median Price
15
20
ue ed a ceRed = Case‐Shiller Index
5
10
15
‐10
‐5
0
01 ‐Jan
001 ‐Jul
02 ‐Jan
002 ‐Jul
03 ‐Jan
003 ‐Jul
04 ‐Jan
004 ‐Jul
05 ‐Jan
005 ‐Jul
06 ‐Jan
006 ‐Jul
07 ‐Jan
007 ‐Jul
08 ‐Jan
008 ‐Jul
09 ‐Jan
009 ‐Jul
10 ‐Jan
010 ‐Jul
11 ‐Jan
011 ‐Jul
12 ‐Jan
012 ‐Jul
13 ‐Jan
25
‐20
‐15 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 200
20 201
20 201
20 201
20 201
‐25
Housing Starts(Well Below 50‐year average of 1.5 million each year)
multifamily single‐family
2000
2500
y g yThousand units (annualized)
1500
2000Long‐term Average
500
1000
0
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
Household Formation Bursting Out(in millions)
2.00
1.401.60
1.80
0 80
1.001.20
1.40
0.40
0.600.80
0.00
0.20
Household Formation b dboost Renters and Owners
Net New Renters and Owners in thousands
4006008001000
e
et e e te s a d O e s t ousa ds
400‐200
0200400
Axis Title
Net New Renters Net New OwnersQ1 750 713
‐800‐600‐400
Q1 750 ‐713Q2 ‐153 230Q3 250 244Q4 206 133Q4 206 133
Nashville Housing StatisticsNashville Housing Statistics
• Sales up 26% in 2012 from 2011Sales up 26% in 2012 from 2011
i 6% f i b• Prices up 6% from one year ago in November
• Dollar Volume … up about 32%
• Inventories … down to 13%
Household Formation Bursting Out(in millions)
2.00
1.401.60
1.80
0 80
1.001.20
1.40
0.40
0.600.80
0.00
0.20
U.S. Total Payroll Jobs( d f b l )(Recovered 63% of jobs lost)
140000 In thousands
134000
136000
138000
130000
132000
134000
124000
126000
128000
124000
000 ‐Jan
000 ‐Jul
001 ‐Jan
001 ‐Jul
002 ‐Jan
002 ‐Jul
003 ‐Jan
003 ‐Jul
004 ‐Jan
004 ‐Jul
005 ‐Jan
005 ‐Jul
006 ‐Jan
006 ‐Jul
007 ‐Jan
007 ‐Jul
008 ‐Jan
008 ‐Jul
009 ‐Jan
009 ‐Jul
010 ‐Jan
010 ‐Jul
011 ‐Jan
011 ‐Jul
012 ‐Jan
012 ‐Jul
20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2 20 2
Nashville Payroll JobsNashville Payroll Jobs850 In thousands
800
700
750
600
650
600
000 ‐Jan
000 ‐Jul
001 ‐Jan
001 ‐Jul
002 ‐Jan
002 ‐Jul
003 ‐Jan
003 ‐Jul
004 ‐Jan
004 ‐Jul
005 ‐Jan
005 ‐Jul
006 ‐Jan
006 ‐Jul
007 ‐Jan
007 ‐Jul
008 ‐Jan
008 ‐Jul
009 ‐Jan
009 ‐Jul
010 ‐Jan
010 ‐Jul
011 ‐Jan
011 ‐Jul
012 ‐Jan
012 ‐Jul
013 ‐Jan
20 2 20 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0
Visible Existing Home Inventory(Existing home inventory at 8‐year low)
4 000 000
4,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
0
500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122000 ‐ Jan
2001 ‐ Jan
2002 ‐ Jan
2003 ‐ Jan
2004 ‐ Jan
2005 ‐ Jan
2006 ‐ Jan
2007 ‐ Jan
2008 ‐ Jan
2009 ‐ Jan
2010 ‐ Jan
2011 ‐ Jan
2012 ‐ Jan
Visible New Home Inventory(Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50‐year low)
600
700
500
600
300
400
100
200
0
4 ‐Jan
6 ‐Jan
8 ‐Jan
0 ‐Jan
2 ‐Jan
4 ‐Jan
6 ‐Jan
8 ‐Jan
0 ‐Jan
2 ‐Jan
4 ‐Jan
6 ‐Jan
8 ‐Jan
0 ‐Jan
2 ‐Jan
4 ‐Jan
6 ‐Jan
8 ‐Jan
0 ‐Jan
2 ‐Jan
4 ‐Jan
6 ‐Jan
8 ‐Jan
0 ‐Jan
2 ‐Jan
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Home Price IndexHome Price Index
Nashville Phoenix
300
350
150
200
250
50
100
0
990 ‐Q
1991 ‐Q
1992 ‐Q
1993 ‐Q
1994 ‐Q
1995 ‐Q
1996 ‐Q
1997 ‐Q
1998 ‐Q
1999 ‐Q
1000 ‐Q
1001 ‐Q
1002 ‐Q
1003 ‐Q
1004 ‐Q
1005 ‐Q
1006 ‐Q
1007 ‐Q
1008 ‐Q
1009 ‐Q
1010 ‐Q
1011 ‐Q
1012 ‐Q
1
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Net Equity in Real EstateNet Equity in Real Estate16000
$ B bbl h
10000
12000
14000In $ billion
If 4% annual gain
Bubble growth
6000
8000
10000 If 4% annual gain
2000
4000
0
000 ‐Q
1000 ‐Q
3001 ‐Q
1001 ‐Q
3002 ‐Q
1002 ‐Q
3003 ‐Q
1003 ‐Q
3004 ‐Q
1004 ‐Q
3005 ‐Q
1005 ‐Q
3006 ‐Q
1006 ‐Q
3007 ‐Q
1007 ‐Q
3008 ‐Q
1008 ‐Q
3009 ‐Q
1009 ‐Q
3010 ‐Q
1010 ‐Q
3011 ‐Q
1011 ‐Q
3012 ‐Q
1
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
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