NASA FEI

Innovating the Future - Rich Antcliff Slide 1

Innovating the Future Rich Antcliff

Chief Technologist NASA Langley Research Center

“Man’s mind stretched to a new idea never goes back to its original dimensions.”

--Oliver Wendell Holmes


Waves crashing in the distance . . .


Technological Exponentials

Quiz: Lily pads can grow fast. Imagine that you discover a variety of lily pads that can double in number every day.

It takes 100 days for them grow to cover a pond halfway.

How many days will it take to completely cover the pond?


Technological Exponentials

Kurtzweil, 2005

Credit: Ray Kurzweil


  Gathering data from multiple studies, Javier F. Medina, Michael D. Mauk, and their colleagues at the University of Texas Medical School devised a detailed bottom-up simulation of the cerebellum.

  Their simulation includes over 10,000 simulated neurons and 300,000 synapses, and includes all of the principal types of cerebellum cells.

The Cerebellum

Reverse Engineering the Brain: the ultimate source of the templates of intelligence

IMPACTS OF ONGOING IT REVOLUTION UPON SOCIETY

•  Work (at home telecommuting, reduced local/corporal travel) •  Shopping (at home web based, (robotic?) delivery) •  Entertainment/leisure (at home immersive 3-D interactive/multi-

sensory via VR/holographic projection) •  Travel (3-D/interactive/multi-sensory tele-travel) •  Education (at home low cost asynchronous, web based on-

demand, highly motivational, life-long distance learning, .edu) •  Health (at home interactive tele-medicine) •  Politics (increased real-time virtual involvement of the body

politic) •  Commerce (tele-commerce already ubiquitous) •  Tele/Digital/on-site Manufacturing •  Tele-Socialization, Tele -[onsite] Manufacturing

Mirroring Virtual Reality

Augmented Reality Lifelogging

Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org

Digital Transparency: Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs

Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into wisdom.

Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it.

Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “lifelogs,” (aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for recording, auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience.


Accelerating Public Transparency: Privacy vs. Anonymity

Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency

David Brin’s “Panopticon” The Transparent Society, 1998

Wearcam.org’s first gen ‘sousveillance’ systems


In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed.

“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Personality Capture


Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)

Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org

“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way.


The cyborgs are amongst us!


Robo sapiens

AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2

(Something very cool about this algorithm…)

“Huey and Louey”

Aibo Soccer

Human- Related “Bio Revolution Products”

•  Human Adaptation –  Direct Photosynthesis –  Micro g/Radiation Hardening (for Space) –  “Water-Breathing”

•  Human Amplification/”Cosmetics” –  Dogs’ Nose, Cats’ ear , Strength Enhancement –  Brain Augmentation –  Custom features/”colors”,”Tails”?

•  Human Maintenance/SERIOUS Life Extension –  Disease Prevention –  “Parts Replacement” –  Currently,~.5 year/year heading to 1 year/year “Designer Humans”………

The “Ultimate” Education Approach - Plug and Play

Direct Silicon (or other such) device connection to brain, (very rapid) uploads, Education in minutes

instead of (many) years

PDA

Cell phone

PC

Percent of U.S. households with: 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Years since product invented

Television

Radio

Electricity Telephone

Air Travel

Automobile

Innovation is Accelerating

Sources: J. Gerry Purdy’s presentation “The Next 50 Years in Mobile and Wireless” at Silicom Ventures, Trade press, Industry sources

Internet

Center for Accelerating Innovation


Ok, take a breath


Waves crashing in the nearby. . .


Global Demographics


World Population


Global Demographics

US Census Bureau International Database

National Science Board - 2010


Global Demographics

Germany

2000 0

50000

25000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

US

China

India

Japan

GDP ’03US$bn

Source: Goldman Sachs, Report 99

National Science Board - 2010


Global Demographics

• Engineering Graduates: • United States - 70,000 • All of Europe - 100,000 •  India - 450,000 • China - 700,000

2005 data

“..but the quality of the engineers is poor” - SO WHAT!

http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/09bspec.htm


Language


Global Demographics

Those who ignore demographics will do so at their own peril - author unknown

Short breath


Waves crashing at home . .


Climate Change


Climate Change

CO2

CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Years Before Present(B.P. -- 1950)

CO2 C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v)

Vostok RecordIPCC IS92a ScenarioLaw Dome RecordMauna Loa Record

Current(2001)

Projected(2100)

0100,000200,000300,000400,000


Climate Change

Boulder Glacier, Washington State


We are losing our partners


Who has the Oil?


The Three Tsunamis

History should be our guide. The United States led the world’s economies in the 20th century because we led the world in innovation. Today, the competition is keener; the challenge is tougher; and that is why innovation is more important than ever. It is the key to good, new jobs for the 21st century. That’s how we will ensure a high quality of life for this generation and future generations.”

-President Barack Obama, August 5, 2009

One man with courage is a majority.

Thomas Jefferson



Thank You!

http://technologygateway.nasa.gov

NASA FEI

Technology

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