1

NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use ChangeScience Team Meeting

NASA and Carbon Management

Ed SheffnerEarth Science Division

April 11, 2006

2

NASA Organization

Four Mission Directorates:1. Aeronautics2. Exploration Systems3. Space Operations4. Science

a. Earth Science– Research– Applied Sciences

b. Helio Physicsc. Solar Systemd. Universe

3

NASA Strategic Goals*

1. Fly the Shuttle as safely as possible until its retirement, notlater than 2010.

2. Complete the International Space Station in a manner consistent with NASA’s international partner commitments and the need of human exploration.

3. Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration.

4. Bring a Crew Exploration Vehicle into service as soon as possible after Shuttle retirement.

5. Encourage the pursuit of appropriate partnerships with the emerging commercial space sector.

6. Establish a lunar return program having the maximum possible utility for later missions to Mars and other destinations.

*NASA 2006 Strategic Plan

4

Strategic Goal #3

A. Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.

B. Understand the Sun and its effects on Earth and the solar system.C. Advance scientific knowledge of the origin and history of the solar

system, the potential for life elsewhere, and the hazards and resources present as humans explore space.

D. Discover the origin, structure, evolution and destiny of the universe, and search for Earth-like planets.

E. Advance knowledge in the fundamental disciplines of aeronautics,and develop technologies for safer aircraft and higher capacity airspace systems.

F. Understand the effects of the space environment on human performance, and test new technologies and countermeasures for long duration space exploration.

5

NASA Earth Science

The Earth Science Division supports: 1) researchprojects that exploit the observations andmeasurements acquired by NASA Earth observingmissions, and, 2) Applied Sciences projects thatextend NASA research to the broader usercommunity and address societal needs.

6

Applications of National Priority

AgriculturalEfficiency

Air Quality Aviation CarbonManagement

Ecological Forecasting

Energy Management

Coastal Management

Disaster Management

Invasive Species Public HealthWater

ManagementHomeland Security

7

Integrating Knowledge, Capacityand Systems into Solutions

8

GEOSS Architecture

9

NASA Integrated System Solution Model

Model characteristics:

• Enhance decision making related to specific societal benefits

• Incremental process

• Verifiable impact through benchmarked results

10

Current NASA Earth Observing Systems

Aqua* AuraCHAMP Cluster (with ESA)FAST GOES-M*Geotail (with Japan) GRACE*ICESat* JASON-1*EO-1* Landsat-5,7*NOAA-M(POES) PolarQuickSCAT SAGE III (with Russia)SeaWinds* (with Japan) SORCETERRA* TIMEDTRMM* (with Japan)

*Land observations

11

Planned NASA Earth Observing Systems

Aquarius (2009)CALIPSO (2006)CloudSat (2006)GPM (2010)LDCM (2010)NPP (under review)NPOESS (under review)OSTM (2008)OCO (2008)

12

Data

DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS

Observations

VALUE & BENEFITS

EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

Predictions

*Future Mission

*Supported Non-NASA Model

Net Ecosystem Production Model: CASA

- Carbon assimilation in above and below ground biomass,

- Assessment of land and ocean carbon sink strength,

- Soil moisture,- Land-atmosphere-ocean carbon

exchange.

• Atmosphere: Terra, Aqua,Terrestrial Networks, NPP, NPOESS, OCO

• Land: Terra, Aura, Landsat, Terrestrial Networks

• Ocean: SeaWIFS, Aqua, Terra, NPP, NPOESS

• Climate change mitigation

• Improved efficiency in energy production

• Improved efficiency in crop production through enhancements in soil carbon

• Improved economy in marginal rural agricultural areas

• Climate change mitigation

Carbon ManagementIntegrated System Solution

Information Products, Predictions, and Data from NASA Applied Sciences

Missions and Models:- Land cover

condition and change

- Volume of above ground biomass Forest condition

- Soil moisture- Agricultural

production and yield - CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

- Oceanic carbon uptake and storage

- Fire management

- Soil carbon sequestration

- Forest management

- Crop planning and rotation

- Irrigation control

- Atmospheric pollution monitoring and prediction

- Energy production (burning of fossil fuels)

- Climate and weather prediction

- Ocean carbon seques-tration

EARTH OBSERVATORIES

13

Toward a Carbon Management RegimeSo

cioe

cono

mic

Impa

ct

Aqua NPP NPOESS

Landsat 7 Terra

N. American Carbon Program and related international results incorporated into models (w/ C data assimilation).

Regional monitoring of carbon storage in biomass and soils.Regional assessment of candidates for carbon sequestration. Assessment of carbon sink strength at continental scaleCapability to discriminate between land and atmospheric carbon fluxes. Assessment of carbon management DSTs in operational systems.

Assessment of OCO data usage

Volumetric assessment of above ground carbon sinks (3-D vs former 2-D capability) Potential to reduce frequency of costly in situ measurements

Soil Surface Moisture Measurement

Next Global land cover and change products

Modeling of soil carbon storage as a function of soil fertility and vegetative processes

Assess and predict sink duration for different land uses

20122008 2010

Steady improvement in model coupling, process characterization, assessment of

carbon sources and sinks

Forest height & canopy volume sampled globally. First global land cover change data product

Current trajectory

Valid

ated

dec

isio

n su

ppor

t too

ls fo

r m

easu

rem

ent

and

mon

itorin

g of

car

bon

stor

age

in te

rres

tria

l and

aqu

atic

en

viro

nmen

ts

2006

Prototype Carbon DSS

OCOAura

Improved accuracy in measurements of carbon fluxes and monitoring of carbon storage in above ground biomass, lakes and coastal environments

Global atmospheric CO2 from OCO

01/15/06Current

LandsatNext

14

North American Carbon Program (NACP) Systems Integration

Observations & Experiments Science Results Estimates & Uncertainties

Predictive Models

Field StudiesDiagnostic Models

Model-Data Fusion

Decision Support

ObservationsDynamic Maps

NACP quantifies magnitudes and distributions of carbon sources and sinks, explains the processes controlling them, and produces a consistent analysis of North America’s carbon budget.

Landsat 7

NACP is a CCSP Interagency

Collaboration

15

Output: landscape-to continental

scale predictive maps of above

and below ground

distributions of sequestered carbon for

different climate scenarios

.

.

NASA MODIS Products

Inputs include continental-scale land cover, NDVI, FPAR, elevation, soils, and

climate data …

Cropland NPP

Leaf Biomass

VEMAP & Daymet (UMT)Climate data

NASA / NGASRTM

Elevation

Cropland AfforestationPrediction

Multi-scale Validation Information

USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis Data Yale/UW Landscape

Management System

User Defined Profile•Region of Interest•Time Frame•Biophysical•Management•Climate Scenario

Carbon Sequestration Predication

CASA CQUEST

Decision Support Tool for Carbon

Accounting

http://geo.arc.nasa.gov/website/cquestwebsite

Landsat 7

16

Carbon Management

EOSDIS & DAACs

Downlink

EDOS: Mission Control

Tasking

Exploitation

Landsat 7

Societal Benefits

Terra

SeaWiFs

CASA/CQUEST

Col

umn

CO

2(p

pm)

October 21-23, 2004

17

Carbon Management Projects

Carbon Cycle Solicitation of 2004: "Linking Landscape Scale Carbon Monitoring with Forest Management" / Richard Birdsey, USDA Forest Service "Decision Support Systems for Carbon Management Across the U.S. Corn Belt" /Paul C. Doraiswamy, USDA Agricultural Research Service "North American Forest Disturbance and Re-growth" / Samuel N. Goward, University of Maryland "Accounting for CO2 Fluxes in Agricultural Lands" / Dr. Stephen M. Ogle, Colorado State University "Projections of Land Use Change and the Carbon Cycle" / Stephen J. Smith/Batelle, Pacific Northwest Division "A FrameworkTool for Full Carbon Accounting" / Tristam O. West, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

18

Carbon Management Projects

ROSES Š Decisions 2004: ŅDecision Support for Forest Carbon Management: From Research to OperationsÓ / Randy Wynne, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and Chris Potter, NASA Ames Research Center REASoN CAN 2003: "The Global Land Cover Facility" / John Townshend, University of Maryland, College Park Directed funding (co-funded with Terrestrial Ecology Program): ŅA Community-Driven, North American Disturbance Record and Processing System For Land Satellite DataÓ / Jeff Masek, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

19

Output landscape-scale predictive maps

of invasive species

distributions …

.

.

MODIS

SRTM

National Institute forInvasive Species Science

Goddard Space Flight Center

High-speed networking interconnects NASA/USGScluster computer & mass storage resources …

USGS Biological Data

Input merged continental-scale NDVI time-series, elevation, soils, and biological field data …

Invasive Species

Landsat 7

20

Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS) Near Term Opportunities

• Data Management System for Earth Observations

• Improved Observations for Disaster Warnings

• Global Land Observation System• Sea Level Observation System• National Integrated Drought

Information System• Air Quality Assessment and

Forecast System

21

USGEO Benefits Addressed by GLOS

• Reducing loss of life and property from disasters,• Supporting sustainable agriculture and forestry,and combating land degradation,

• Developing the capacity to make ecological forecasts,

• Protecting, monitoring and managing water resources,

• Understanding the impact of environmental factors on human health, and

• Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate variability and change.

22

NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use ChangeScience Team Meeting

Ed Sheffner

edwin.j.sheffner@nasa.gov

(202) 358-0239

23

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

• Intention for Landsat 7 follow-on dates back to 1992 law that authorized Landsat 7 (Land Remote Sensing Policy Act of 1992).

• Options for the system: a) commercial system, b) government build, c) government/private sector joint venture, d) international consortium.

• Recommendation for a joint venture led to solicitation for Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) in 2002.

• RFP cancelled by NASA in 2003.• 2003: Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

issued memo outlining plan for operational Landsat type instrument.

• Plan called for NASA to build instrument(s) for inclusion on NPP and/or NPOESS.

24

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

December 2005: OSTP memo “Landsat Data Continuity Strategy

Adjustment”

• NPOESS to proceed without Landsat type instrument;

• NASA will acquire a single LDCM free flyer to collect data and

deliver to USGS for distribution;

• USGS responsible for operations of LDCM and for “collection,

archiving, processing and distribution of the land surface data

to U.S. Government and other users;”

• NASA and USGS will implement the LDCM in a manner that

does not preclude different approach to follow-on systems;

25

Landsat Data Continuity Mission

• Goal remains to make Landsat a “sustained operational program” managed by the USG, or an international consortium, or a commercial partnership.

• OSTP, with NASA, USGS and other agencies will develop a plan for sustainable operational land imaging in accord with the goals and objectives of the US Integrated Earth Observation System.