Naruc Renewables

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Role of Renewable Energy in

Future Electricity Supply2006 NARUC Summer MeetingSan Francisco

July 30, 2006

Hank CourtrightSenior Vice President

Environment Sector andMember Services


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2 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Renewable/Other

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Petroleum

Coal

U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Generation, Billion kWh

U.S. Electricity Generation Forecast


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Renewable EnergyTechnology

Status2005 World

Installed MWIssues

Wind Commercial 52,100 Integration at LargeScale

Solar PV Commercial 3,900Conversion Efficiency

and Cost

Solar Thermal Demo andPre-Commercial

370 High Capital Cost

BiomassCombustion

Commercial 20,000 High Fuel Cost

Biomass Gasification Pilot and Demo


4/204 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

State of the Global Renewable Energy Market160,000 MW Installed Growing at 25 GW/Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

World DCs EU 25 US Japan

SolarGeothermal

Biomass

Windpower

Small Hydro

Plus:

720,000 MW Large Hydro

220,000 MW (th) BiomassHeating

28,000 MW (th) Geothermal

Heating

77,000 MW (th) Solar Heating

1,000 MW of off-grid solar

PV systems

New RenewablesInstalled Base (000 MW)

Total Renewable Energy = 1,206,000 MW Equivalent

for Electricity and Heating Around the World

Source: Renewables 2005: Global Status Report



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Sources: AWEA, GE Wind, and ACORE

U.S. Wind Power Installations,MW/Year

9,700 MW installed base, 200535,000 MW estimated by 2015Key Issues:. Turbine availability. RPS extension past 2007. Siting and transmission

InstalledRPS RequiredNew

Wind Power



Per capita income in 1999

45,000

25,000

5,000

Status

Completed

Proposed

Speculative

Under development

Wind Installations in U.S.

Source: GE



Sources: PV News and ACORE

U.S. Solar PV Installations,MW/Year

E

Approximate 5,000 MW in placeAdding 1,500 MW/year globally

Key Issues: Global competition Distribution system impact

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Grid

Off-Grid

Solar PV$7 Billion/Year Global Industry



Net Metering Programs

MA: 60 kW

CT: 100 kWRI: 25 kW

VA: 10 kW (res.);500 kW (comm.)

NJ: 2 MWDE: 25 kW

1 MW

NY: varies(10 kW - 400 kW)

Ohio:No limit

100 kW

10 kW10 kW

30 kW

25 kW

25 kW

25 kW

50 kW

25 kW

25 kW

No limit

50 kW

100 kW 40 kW

20 kW

HI: 50 kW

50 kW

OK: 100 kWor 25,000 kWh

AR: 25 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)

LA: 25 kW (res.);100 kW (comm. or ag.)

40 kW

15 kW

IN: 10 kWand 1,000 kWh/month

GA: 10 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)

State-WidePrograms

IndividualUtilities

ME: 100 kW

MD: 200 kW

NH: 25 kW

40 States + D.C.

VT: 15 kW,150 kW for ag.

FL: 10 kW

30 kW

DC: 100 kW

NC: 20 kW (res.);100 kW (comm.)

Source: Union of

Concerned Scientists



500 MW Contracts

Incremental Hydro

Solar Dish-Sterling:

350 MWContracts

Solar Trough:50 MWUnderConstruction

Geothermal, Hydropower and SolarThermal-Electric



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1985 1995 2005

Million Gallons/Year

Biofuel options: Corn-based ethanol fuel Cellulosic ethanol fuel Bio-diesel U.S. and EuropeEst

Corn-Based Ethanol

Source: Renewable Fuels Association and ACORE

Renewable FuelsU.S. Ethanol and BiodieselOver $2 Billion Invested in 2005


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Goal

*PA: 18% by 2020

*NJ : 6.5% by 2008

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009 +1% annual increase

WI: 2.2% by 2011

IA: 105 MW

MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011

*AZ: 1.1% by 2007

CA: 20% by 2010

*NV: 20% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000

State RPS

*MD: 7.5% by 2019

*Minimum requirement and/or increased credit for solar PA: 8% Tier I, 10% Tier II (includes non-renewable sources)

HI: 20% by 2020

RI: 15% by 2020

*CO: 10% by 2015

*DC: 11% by 2022

January 2006

NY: 25% by 2013

MT: 15% by 2015

*DE: 10% by 2019

Renewable Portfolio Standards

Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council


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0

6,000

12,000

18,000

24,000

30,000

36,000

42,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Meg

awatts

Pennsylvania

*Assumes regulatory enforcement of voluntary RES.

Hawaii

California

Nevada

IA & WI

New Jersey

CT & RIMAMaine

Minnesota

AZ & NM

New York

Texas

New renewable energy supported:32,000 MW by 2017

Maryland

CO & MT

Illinois*

DC & DE

Source: Union of Concerned Scientists

The Supply Effect of RPS


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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Estimate

Projects

Technology and Service Cos

Developers

Renewable Energy Global M&AActivity, $ Millions

ACOREs RE Finance Forum 2005

Major IPOs in 2005: Q-Cells Germany SunPower USA Suntech Taiwan

Suzlon India Source: New Energy Finance

Renewable Energy Financing is Enteringthe Mainstream


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Fossil Fueled Generation Technologies in 2010

0 10 20 30 40 50

Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

Pulverized Coal*(PC)

Natural Gas

Combined Cycle**(NGCC)

Integrated Gasification

Combined Cycle*(IGCC)

*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu

**Natl Gas @ $6/mmBtu

No CO2

Capture

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10Levelized Cost of Electricity, Cents/kWh


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0 10 20 30 40 50


Wind*

Nuclear**

Biomass

Non-CO2 Emitting Generation Technologiesin 2010

* 29% Capacity Factor

** $1700/kw Capital Cost

3

4

5

6

7

8

9



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0 10 20 30 40 50


Wind***

Nuclear****

PC*

IGCC*

Biomass

NGCC**

*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu **Natl Gas @ $6/mmBtu***29% Capacity Factor ****$1700/kw Capital Cost

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Comparative Costs of 2010 Generating Options


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Comparative Costs of 2020 Generating Options

0 10 20 30 40 50


Nuclear****

Wind*** Biomass

NGCC**PC*

IGCC*

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


*Coal @ $1.50/mmBtu **Natl Gas @ $6/mmBtu***29% Capacity Factor ****$1700/kw Capital Cost

Wi d d Bi St t d EPRI


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Historical and Projected Installed Wind Capacity 1981 - 2009

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Year

InstalledCapacity(MW)

Europe U.S. Rest of World

Wind and Biomass Status and EPRIProgram Direction

Wind: Maturing technology and significant

resources, ~50 GW worldwide. Wind will

play important role as non-emittinggeneration of choice.

Future focus on integration issues on/off shore, forecasting, conditionmonitoring, emerging operation andmaintenance issues as utility own wind.

Biomass: Fits utilitys traditional model, central dispatchable,

interest has been with co-firing, testing, corrosionassessment, etc.

Direction is to track European experience broadenlook to biofuels, gasification, more co-firing tests,develop biomass deposition.

Source: BTM Consult, World Market Update, 2005

T h l St t d EPRI P Di ti


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Subsurface temperaturesat 6-km depth (deg C)

Technology Status and EPRI Program Directionwith Solar, Geothermal and Ocean Energy

Solar Energy:

Rooftop/building PV will emergewith cost/efficiency improvement.

Solar thermal is better utility fitbut unproven and less upside.

EPRI monitoring for PV breakthrough, evaluatingsolar thermal technology demonstrations.

Geothermal Energy:

2500 MW in the U.S., mostly in California andHawaii. Issues include high cost of geothermalwells, decrease output over time.

Utility interest has waned, we will monitor.

Ocean Energy: A few hundred kW worldwide, ocean tidal and wave

energy offers significant potential, 1020 years out.

EPRI opportunity is in early demonstrations and leadershipin the national program, including related wind-wave and

hydro-kinetic turbines.

Source: NREL

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