Narjess Teyssier - International Civil Aviation Organization · Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic...
Transcript of Narjess Teyssier - International Civil Aviation Organization · Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic...
8 December 2012 Page 1
ICAN 2012
Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic Analysis and Policy Section
ICAO Jeddah, December 8, 2012
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ICAN 2012: A successful event
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ICAN benefits for States
Venue Year
Dubai 2008 UAE
Istanbul 2009
Turkey
Kingston 2010
Jamaica
Mumbai 2011 India
Number of participating States
27 52 38 64
Number of bilateral meetings held
100 200 200 340
Number of Bilateral Agreements signed
at the meeting 20 60 60 120
In 2010 Estimated Cost savings to participating States: Several million USD
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ICAO´s Policies and guidance material
4
A37-20
Chicago Convention basis for key policies
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Passenger traffic in 2011
(%): 2011/2010 growth
2.7
billio
n Passengers
+5.6%
5.1
trillion
Passenger-km
+6.5%
30
millio
n Departures
+3.6%
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Air Cargo in 2011
182billion Freight Tonnes-Kilometer performed
-0.1% YoY
Note: Scheduled services
51million Freight Tonnes carried
+1.4% YoY
6
Air freight in the international trade
By value
$5.3billion
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Past decade traffic growth
Source: ICAO, IATA
Pas
sen
ger
tra
ffic
B
illio
n R
PK
s
2000-2010
+4.4 % p.a.
Non IATA airlines
7%
IATA members 93%
Passenger traffic market share By airline type
Non IATA airlines
21%
IATA members 79%
Passenger traffic market share By airline type
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Market Shares* Achieved in 2011
International traffic represents 62% of the total passenger
traffic
International passenger traffic** Domestic passenger traffic**
* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometer
Europe 39%
Africa 3%
Middle East 12%
Asia and Pacific 27%
North America
15%
Latin America
4% Europe
8%
Africa 1%
Middle East 1%
Asia and Pacific 33%
North America
50%
Latin America
7%
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Long-term passenger traffic forecast
Source: ICAO
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total World RPKs (billions)
Most Likely Low High
History
AAGR for 20 years forecasts
3.6% p.a. 1990-2010: 4.4 %p.a.
4.5%p.a
5.2 % p.a.
2030-2040: 4.3 %p.a.
High GDP scenario = +0.3% for developed countries & +0.6 for the developing countries Low GDP scenario= -0.5 for developed regions & -0.1 for the developing regions.
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Air travellers represent 51% of international tourist
Air 51% Road
41%
Water 6%
Rail 2%
Inbound travellers by mode of transport
Note: 2010 figures for international tourists Source: UNWTO
Aviation and Tourism: Key figures
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Value chain of air transport
STATES (Regulatory framework)
Airlines Airports
ANSPs
Travel agents & GDS
Lessors
Aircraft manufacturers
Ground Handling
Fuel suppliers Seeks services from
MROs
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IATS: ICAO Air Transport Symposium 18 – 20 April 2012
TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE AIR TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
• Main Impediment: “Fragmentation” of markets and regulation
• Strategy: “Seamlessness” while
– Striking a balance between security and facilitation
– Minimizing impact on environment
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Theme: “Challenges &
Opportunities for
Liberalization”
Role of ICAO:
“Facilitate, promote
and assist States in
the liberalization
process”
Outcome / Results
From ATConf/5…. to ATConf/6
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The nine Freedoms of air APPENDIX C
Nine Freedoms of the Air
Home State
1. Overfly
A
B
2. Technical stop
Home State A B
3. Set down traffic
Home State A B
4. Pick up traffic
Home State A B
5. Carry traffic to/from third State
Home State A B
6. Carry traffic via Home State
A Home State B
7. Operate from second State to/from third State
Home State A B
Home State
Home State
8. Carry traffic between two points in a foreign State
A
9. Operate only in a foreign State
A
Figure 4.1-1. The Nine Freedoms of the Air (Doc 9626, Chapter 4.1)
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Top 5 States involved in bilateral Open Skies Agreements (OSAs)*
*Considered as an OSA when there is no restriction on 5th Freedom and above Status as of October 2012
State Number
United States 109
United Arab Emirates 77
Canada 43
Singapore 34
Bahrain 26
Source: Governmental Internet sites
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By October 2012, 145 States signed one or more bilateral OSAs
States involved in bilateral OSAs
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Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines’ mergers and acquisitions
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2012: Alliances regional distribution
Star Alliance: 28%
One world: 29%
Star Alliance: 8%
One world: 2%
Star Alliance: 28%
One world: 34%
Star Alliance: 31%
One world: 33%
Star Alliance: 5%
One world: 1% Skyteam: 28%
Skyteam: 2%
Skyteam: 31%
Skyteam: 1%
Skyteam: 4%
Skyteam: 32%
3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic
Most well-known Non Aligned airlines
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1995 1999 2004 2009
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%Number of frequencies
Number of country-pair routes
As a % of international scheduled services
Indicators: Air transport services conducted under liberalized agreements or arrangements
Source : ICAO
Frequencies Country pairs
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Facilitating Liberalization
TASA
TASA
TASA
Template Air Services Agreement
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World Air Services Agreements (WASA) Web Database
• Original text of over 2500 bilateral agreements
• 90 distinct provisions covered • Summary of the routes
exchanged • A built-in search engine
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NEW ICAO STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE
To foster the development of a sound and economically viable air transport system
New SO reflects the needs for ICAO’s leadership in developing and harmonizing the global regulatory framework
Helps focus ICAO’s work to meet the need of Member States and aviation stakeholders
Economic Development of Air Transport
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Theme : “Sustainability of Air Transport” Objectives : to develop guidelines and, to develop an action plan for a global regulatory framework. www.icao.int/meetings/atconf6/Pages/default.aspx
18-22 March 2013
ICAO Headquarters, Montreal
Sixth Worldwide Air Transport Conference (ATConf/6)
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Pre-Conference Symposium
• One-day symposium: Montréal, 17 March 2013
– Better prepare participants
– Join forces with the major stakeholders organizations such as IATA, ACI, CANSO, TIACA, UNWTO.
– Very high level speakers
– December 2012: Electronic bulletin for invitation including the preliminary symposium agenda
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Challenges and issues
• Market access • Air carrier ownership and control
• Consumer protection
• Fair competition and safeguards
• Funding and financing of the air transport system • Taxation of international air transport
Main challenge: Implementation of ICAO policies and guidance
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SHUKRAN Thank You,
Merci, Spasiba, Xie Xie, Gracias
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