NAME STATUS AND ISSUES

NAME Homepage:http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

NAME STATUS AND PLANSNAME STATUS AND PLANS

NAME Science Working GroupApril 23, 2003

NAME Homepage:http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name

SWG-6 Agenda and Format

3 Sessions:(1) NAME Overview

* Summary of NAME Operations Review; Forecaster Orientation Workshop

(2) NAME 2004 Enhanced Observing Period* Status reports on instrument networks * Finalize IOP protocols* Discussion and resolution of ACTION ITEMS

WORKING LUNCH* Discussion, cont.* Short Executive Session

(3) NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies* Diagnostics: precipitation* Modeling: diurnal cycle experiments; proposal for NAMAP2; NAME04

data impact studies; seasonal forecasts * Discussion and compilation of new ACTION ITEMS

Purpose: Review unresolved ACTION ITEMS; Responsible PI’s should address.

The North American Monsoon The North American Monsoon ExperimentExperiment

• Multiyear, multi-tier research program aimed at studying the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation over N. America

• Scientific Objectives:• Improve characterization of warm season convective processes in complex terrain (Tier 1)• Describe and improve simulation of mechanisms controlling intraseasonal variability of the monsoon (Tier 2)• Define the response of the warm season circulation and precipitation to slowly varying boundary conditions (Tier 3)• Improve simulation and prediction of the North American Monsoon System and its variability

The North American Monsoon The North American Monsoon Experiment: DeliverablesExperiment: Deliverables

• Observing system design for monitoring and predicting the North American Monsoon System.

• More comprehensive understanding for the North American summer climate variability and predictability.

• Strengthened multinational scientific collaboration across Pan America.

• Measurably improved climate models that predict North American monsoon variability months to seasons in advance.

YEAR (2000+) YEAR (2000+) 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0800 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

PlanningPlanning ----------------------------||

PreparationsPreparations ----------------------------||

Data CollectionData Collection -- -- -- --------------------------------||

Principal ResearchPrincipal Research --------------------------------------------------------------------||

Data ManagementData Management ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------||

The North American Monsoon The North American Monsoon Experiment: Timeline of ActivitiesExperiment: Timeline of Activities

NAME 2004 Enhanced Observing Period

NAME 2004 EOP ACTION ITEMS

Atmospheric Profiles– Obtain a firm schedule for installation of each ISS site.

– Determine status of request for 4x daily soundings at Puerto Penasco and Kino Bay.

– Resolve discrepancies between the background frequency of launches in the budget hexagon (SMN 2x -vs- ISS 4x daily).

– Determine status of Torreon site; H -vs-He.

– Resolve remaining staffing issues

NAME 2004 EOP ACTION ITEMS

Atmospheric Profiles– Status of discussion on radiosonde requirements at Costa Rica and Belize City for 2x daily soundings and the possibilities for NHC support?

– Status of PIBAL network (M. Douglas)

– Finalize arrangements for SMN, ISS, ship, and any other soundings to transmit to the GTS gateway.

– Finalize expendables table and provide to Project Office, FOC’s and NCEP

NAME 2004 EOP ACTION ITEMS

Radars– Obtain a firm schedule for the upgrades and operations of the 4 SMN radars.

– Status of S-POL shipping arrangements

NAME 2004 EOP ACTION ITEMS

Aircraft Operations:NOAA P-3–  Should we identify a radar PI for coordinated flight operations and acquisition of X-band Doppler radar data (NOAA P-3)?

NAME 2004 EOP ACTION ITEMS

Surface Met Instruments– Determine needs for additional coordination with SMEX04.

– Prepare a map of the distribution of simple raingauges.

NAME 2004 EOP ACTION ITEMS

Ship Observations: Altair– Determine how many extra sondes are allocated to the Altair, and where they can best be used at ISS sites.

– Finalize arrangements for deploying a tethersonde aboard the Altair.

NAME 2004 IOP ACTION ITEMSNAME 2004 IOP ACTION ITEMS

• Approve a final version of the IOP Science Protocols at SWG-6.

• Develop daily log/guidance worksheet for rotating Science Directors pending the final outcome of IOP calling criteria from SWG-6.

NAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLSNAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLS

NOAA P-3 Aircraft related IOP Missions (allocated & ranked)(1) MEAN MOISTURE FLUX OVER TIER I (6 flights; 42 hrs)

PURPOSE: To describe the influx of moisture from the Pacific into the NAME Tier 1 domain under strong, normal, and weak conditions.Flights from far offshore of Baja California to well south of Baja California, but also including flights over the GOC for comparative observations.

(2) STRUCTURE OF GOC LLJ (2 flights; 14 hrs)

PURPOSE: To describe the horizontal and vertical structure of the GOC LLJ, especially over the northern GOC and to measure the overland conditions in NW Mexico. Flights over Northern GOC and NW Mexico.

(3) GENESIS / PROPAGATION OF GULF SURGES (2 flights; 14 hrs)

PURPOSE: To describe the synoptic environment associated the genesis and propagation of Gulf Surges (most likely in concert with non-aircraft IOP)Flights over Southern and Central GOC region.

NAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLSNAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLS

NOAA P-3 Aircraft related IOP Missions (non-allocated & ranked)

(4) MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY INVERTED TROUGHS

LOCATION: Northern and Central Mexico

(5) INLAND PENETRATION OF SEA/TERRAIN CIRCULATION, PBL EVOLUTION and CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SMO

LOCATION: Central SMO inland to plateau rim

(6) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND RESIDUALS:

PURPOSE: To focus on MCCs at the mouth of the Gulf of California. Missions depend on good forecasts.

LOCATION: Southern end of GOC.

NAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLSNAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLS

Non-aircraft related IOP Missions (allocated & ranked)(1) BASELINE MONSOON DAYS

Purpose: To characterize the “mean” moisture flux field over the NAME Tier I region on days without propagating disturbances.

(2) GULF SURGES

Purpose: To monitor the genesis and propagation of Gulf Surges using one or two missions lasting 1-3 days, with emphasis on the diurnal cycle. The most dependable of these are associated with Tropical Storms moving toward or a bit SW of Baja. If such a situation develops, it should be quite doable to call a Gulf Surge IOP and plan the P-3 missions (if appropriate) before the actual onset of the surge.

(3) SUPPRESSED MONSOON DAYS

Purpose: Compare amplitude of anomalies in suppressed conditions to enhanced conditions (e.g. in the pre-surge -vs- post surge environment), with emphasis on the diurnal cycle.

NAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLSNAME 2004 IOP SCIENCE PROTOCOLS

Non-aircraft related IOP Missions (allocated & ranked)

(4) ONSET OF THE MONSOON

Purpose: To document the arrival of 2004 monsoon.

(5) EASTERLY WAVES AND PLATEAU MOISTURE CONVERGENCE

Purpose: Investigate moisture budget of NAME Tier 2 relative to movement of an easterly wave westward from GOM, with emphasis on the diurnal cycle.

NAME 2004 IOP CALLS

NAME PROJECT OFFICE ISSUESNAME PROJECT OFFICE ISSUES

• We are waiting on the Science Permit. A temporary permit has been expedited.- Have other forms/permits been submitted for ALL NAME instrument

networks?

• Shipment Issues: - Final shipping arrangements for sondes / raingauges with US Embassy

in Mexico, SMN and IMTA

- Final shipping arrangements for S-POL, and other ATD equipment

NAME 2004 FORECAST OPERATIONS NAME 2004 FORECAST OPERATIONS CENTER ACTION ITEMSCENTER ACTION ITEMS

• Finalize list of visitors to Tucson during the EOP.

• Confirm all NAME Science Directors

• Follow up on FOC travel support requests for some Science Directors (e.g. Brian Mapes).

• Finalize “Personal Briefing” pages for daily forecaster preparation and coordination:Action: Incorporate SPC, TPC products.

NAME International Science Operations Team

Science Director and Duty Rotation:

June 21-30: Dave GochisJune 29-July 8: Art DouglasJuly 7-July 16: Dick JohnsonJuly 15-July 24: Brian MapesJuly 23-August 1: Rene LobatoJuly 31-August 9: Bob MaddoxAugust 8 -August 17: Miguel CortezAugust 16-August 25: Mike DouglasAugust 24-September 1: Dave Stensrud

NAME MODELING AND DATA NAME MODELING AND DATA ASSIMILATION “WHITE PAPER”ASSIMILATION “WHITE PAPER”

• Provides a strategy for accelerating progress on the fundamental modeling issues pertaining to the NAME science objectives .

• Strategy includesI. Multi-scale Model DevelopmentII. Multi-tier Synthesis and Data AssimilationIII. Prediction and Global-scale Linkages

• An updated version of the “White Paper” that provides guidance to CLIVAR and GEWEX on future NAME modeling activities is needed.

NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation:

A Strategic Overview

NAME Science Working Group*

June 2003

NAME MODELING ROADMAP

• Model and Diagnostic Activitieso NAMAP (benchmark simulations of 1990 monsoon) – Gutzler et al. (2004)o NAMAP2 (simulations of 2004 monsoon) – proposed

• Data Assimilationo NCEP high resolution North American climate analysis system – R-CDAS

(Mo and Higgins)o NAME 2004 data impact studies (Mo and Higgins)

• Model and Forecast System Developmento Diurnal Cycle Experiments – multiyear simulations in AGCMS (Schubert et al.)o NAME CPT (diurnal cycle of conv in complex terrain) – proposed

• Experimental Predictiono Sensitivity to SST and soil moistureo Subseasonal prediction (e.g. MJO)

• Climate Prediction Product Development and Applicationso Assessments (North American drought monitor, hazards)o Forecasts (North American seasonal and subseasonal)

NAME MILESTONES

• Benchmark and assess current global and regional model simulations of the North American monsoon (04) NAMAP, NAMAP 2

• Implement new high-resolution North American climate analysis system at NCEP (04) R-CDAS

• Assess impact of NAME 2004 observations on operational analysis products (05) NAME 04 data impact studies

• Evaluate impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (06) NAME CPT

• Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability (07)

• Implement recommended changes to (NCEP) operational climate prediction systems to bring monsoon forecasts online (08)

NAME MODELING ISSUES

• How do we expand participation in NAME Modeling activities?o Representatives to WGSIP, THORPEX, others?

• How do we develop the NAME CPT?o NCEP Hydromet Testbedo Clarify role of university community and other gov. labs

• How do we develop joint NAME-MESA-VOCALS modeling activities? o Experimental prediction activities that include the Americas

• How do we develop the linkage between NAME modeling and applications (e.g. hydrology, fire wx, etc.)?o NAME Hydromet group partners with IRI on a regional project

• What climate prediction products should NAME pursue? o North American seasonal forecasts and drought monitor

SWG-6 GOALS

• Review and Finalize Plans for NAME 2004 EOP

– Instrument platforms

– IOP’s and Aircraft flight patterns

– Forecast Operations Center activities and coordination

• Update on NAME Modeling & Diagnostic Activities

– Diurnal Cycle Experiments

– NAMAP2 /CPT Strategy

– NAME 04 Data Impact Studies

– NAME Seasonal Forecasts

SWG-6 GOALS

• Discuss future priorities

– Provide guidance on future NAME modeling activity to CLIVAR and GEWEX via the NAME Modeling and Data Assimilation “White Paper”.

– Update the roadmap for post NAME 2004 modeling / data assimilation/ enhanced monitoring activities

– Make preliminary Plans for the NAME Data Analysis Workshop

http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name