Name of presenter(s) or subtitle Russian Media Market: Trends and Forecasts Ruslan Tagiev, TNS...
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Transcript of Name of presenter(s) or subtitle Russian Media Market: Trends and Forecasts Ruslan Tagiev, TNS...
Name of presenter(s) or subtitle
Russian Media Market:Trends and Forecasts
Ruslan Tagiev,
TNS Russia
September 26-27, 2005
2© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Advertising expenditures in Russia ($, bln)
Source: AKAR
1.4 1.4
0.6 0.81.3
2.2
3.9
2.9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
-59% +41% +65% +65% +31% +33%- 4%
3© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Advertising expenditures + Forecast ($, bln)
Source: AKAR
1.4 1.4
0.6 0.81.3
2.2
3.9
6.45.9
5.34.7
2.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-59% +41%+65%
+65%+31%
+33%
- 4%
+21%
+14%
+11%
+8%
4© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
44.1%
31.1%
18.4%
5.2%
TV
Press
Radio
Outdoor
Ad expenditures media split, 2004
Source: AKAR
5© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Share of TV advertising ($, bln)
Source: AKAR
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
other mediaTV
1.4 1.4
0.6 0.81.3
2.2
2.9
3.9
4.75.3
5.96.4
39% 35% 32% 34% 39%42%
43%44% 45% 47%
49% 50%
6© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Share of Regional TV + Forecast ($, bln)
Source: AKAR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
regionalnational
0.91.2
1.7
2.1
2.52.9
3.2
77%77%
76%
75%74%
72%71%
23%
23%
24%
25%
26%28%
29%
7© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Advertising editions
Magazines
Newspapers
0.80.9
1.2
1.41.5
1.7
1.8
Advertising expenditures on Press + Forecast ($, bln)
Source: AKAR
44% 42% 40% 39% 38% 37% 37%34% 37%
39%40%
42%43% 44%
22%21%
21%
21%20%
20%19%
8© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Share of Regional Press + Forecast ($, bln)
Source: AKAR
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2002 2003 2004
National
Regional
21%22%
23%
0.8
0.9
1.2
9© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Top 10 Advertised Categories, SOV % (TV, Radio, Press,Outdoor, Cinema)
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
cellular communication
soft drinks
detergents and cleansers
beer
dairy products
hair care products
cell phones
chocolate products
auto
shows & entertainment
2.3%
6.5%
5.6%
2.9%
3.5%
2.8%
0.6%
6.3%
2.2%
2.2%
January-June 2000 6.9%
6.3%
6.1%
5.2%
4.4%
3.9%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.7%
January-June 2005
New!
New!
New!
10© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Advertising increase drivers
11 510 11 760 11 967 12 433 12 00612 511
13 323
14 722 15 018
10 535 10 847
40%
44% 44%41%
44%
38%
42%
47%
37%38%
49%
2000/1 2000/2 2001/1 2001/2 2002/1 2002/2 2003/1 2003/2 2004/1 2004/2 2005/1
Number of advertisers Share of top-20 advertisers, $
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
11© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
SOV, %
1Procter & Gamble
7.6
2 L`Oreal 3.6
3 Unilever 3.2
4 Wimm-Bill-Dann* 2.7
5 Nestle 2.7
6 Henkel Group 2.5
7 Mars 2.4
8 Danone 2.3
9 MTS 1.7
10 Wrigley 1.7
Top 10 Advertisers in Russia, January-June 2005
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
* Local advertisers are highlighted
12© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
SOV, %
1 Wimm-Bill-Dann 2.7
2 MTS 1.7
3 Bee Line 1.6
4 Lebedyansky 1.2
5 Baltika 1.1
6 Nefis Cosmetics 0.9
7 Kalina 0.6
8 Gemini-Film 0.6
9 Eldorado 0.6
10 Multon 0.6
Top 10 Russian Advertisers, January-June 2005
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
13© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
SOV, %
1 Mercury 2.6
2 L`Oreal 2.6
3 Procter & Gamble 1.7
4Samsung Electronics
1.2
5Toyota Motor Corp.
1.2
6 Volkswagen 1.2
7 BeFree 1.2
8 Don-Stroy 1.0
9 Bee Line 0.8
10 LG Electronics 0.7
Top 10 Advertisers in Press, January-June 2005
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
14© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Increase in top 5 titles in each group, 2004 vs. 2003
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
+19%
+11%
+23%+21%
+23%
Automagazines
top-5
Advertisingeditions
top-5
Men'smagazines
top-5
Women'smagazines
top-5
Businessweeklies
top-5
TOTALNewspapers
Dailynewspapers
top-5
+28% +29%
TOTALMagazines
+34%
15© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Time Spent Distribution Across Media
100% = all the time spent media consumption (9 hours per day)
TV: 46.6%
Press: 4.7%
Radio: 41%Audio records: 3.1%
Books: 2.5%Video, DVD: 1.4%
Internet: 0.8%
Source: Marketing Index – Russia, Dec’04 – Apr’05
© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Time budget (Russia)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reading magazines
Reading newspapers
Reading books
Source: Marketing Index – Russia, Dec’04 – Apr’05
Morning Night
17© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
79.783.4
88.9
88.1
85.8
84.581.9
79.6
67.4
83.8
76.8
84.6
69.682.0
87.6
81.7
80.5
all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
(Moscow, all titles AIR %)
Total Readership Profile(Russia, all national titles AIR %)
62.067.1
73.7
74.7
72.3
70.264.8
58.0
41.5
74.1
57.4
69.8
46.267.7
79.3
64.9
61.4
all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
Source: National Readership Survey, March-July 2005
18© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
76.479.9
70.5
67.7
70.6
79.483.3
87.1
82.6
80.8
79.6
77.5
78.278.6
78.7
78.4
77.0
all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
(Moscow, Average Daily Reach%)
Total TV Audience Profile(Russia, Average Daily Reach%)
75.880.4
71.3
65.8
72.3
77.782.3
88.1
85.8
80.3
78.8
78.1
80.278.4
75.0
78.3
77.8
all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
Source: Gallup TV Index, 2005
19© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
26.722.9
21.8
22.1
23.0
27.226.7
28.3
21.4
28.3
20.7
27.1
18.924.6
28.1
24.7
22.6
all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
(Moscow, Daily Newspapers AIR %)
Newspapers vs. Magazines Audience Profile, Moscow(Moscow, Monthly Magazines AIR %)
51.654.5
78.8
73.2
66.2
58.649.5
39.1
21.8
58.5
43.4
58.9
28.550.9
69.7
50.0
53.2all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
Source: National Readership Survey, March-July 2005
20© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
11.28.8
7.1
7.6
8.9
10.911.7
12.1
8.8
8.3
7.9
11.1
6.310.2
13.3
9.8
13.9
all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
(Russia, Daily Newspapers AIR %)
Newspapers vs. Magazines Audience Profile, Russia(Russia, Monthly Magazines AIR %)
26.532.5
47.1
44.8
36.9
32.125.5
18.5
10.7
26.1
25.6
32.6
13.929.8
48.3
39.7
29.8all 16+
men
women
16-1920-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-6465+
high education
lower education
unemployedemployed
lower income
average income
higher income
Source: National Readership Survey, March-July 2005
21© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
19.3%
17.9%17.9%
17.0%16.3%
16.7%17.3%17.6%17.5%
Dec'02 -Apr'03
Mar'03 -Jul'03
May'03 -Oct'03
Dec'03 -Apr'04
Mar'04 -Jul'04
May'04 -Oct'04
Sep'04 -Feb'05
Dec'04 -Apr'05
Mar'05 -Jul'05
Women’s magazines
Groups of Titles with Increasing Audience (Russia)
4.0%3.8%3.9%3.6%3.5%
3.2%
2.3%2.3%2.3%
Dec'02 -Apr'03
Mar'03 -Jul'03
May'03 -Oct'03
Dec'03 -Apr'04
Mar'04 -Jul'04
May'04 -Oct'04
Sep'04 -Feb'05
Dec'04 -Apr'05
Mar'05 -Jul'05
Men’s magazines
Source: National Readership Survey - Russia
22© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
9.4%9.5%9.4%9.3%9.0%9.1%
6.6%6.3%6.7%
Dec'02 -Apr'03
Mar'03 -Jul'03
May'03 -Oct'03
Dec'03 -Apr'04
Mar'04 -Jul'04
May'04 -Oct'04
Sep'04 -Feb'05
Dec'04 -Apr'05
Mar'05 -Jul'05
Daily newspapers
Groups of Titles with Stable Audience (Russia)
2.6%2.8%2.9%2.6%2.7%
3.1%
1.8%1.8%1.9%
Dec'02 -Apr'03
Mar'03 -Jul'03
May'03 -Oct'03
Dec'03 -Apr'04
Mar'04 -Jul'04
May'04 -Oct'04
Sep'04 -Feb'05
Dec'04 -Apr'05
Mar'05 -Jul'05
Business weeklies
Source: National Readership Survey - Russia
23© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
4.0%4.3%
4.9%
4.0%3.8%4.0%
2.9%2.9%2.8%
Dec'02 -Apr'03
Mar'03 -Jul'03
May'03 -Oct'03
Dec'03 -Apr'04
Mar'04 -Jul'04
May'04 -Oct'04
Sep'04 -Feb'05
Dec'04 -Apr'05
Mar'05 -Jul'05
Computer magazines
Computer and Auto Magazines (Russia)
16.0% 16.0% 15.8%
20.0%
18.4% 18.7%20.1%
21.1%20.1%
Dec'02 -Apr'03
Mar'03 -Jul'03
May'03 -Oct'03
Dec'03 -Apr'04
Mar'04 -Jul'04
May'04 -Oct'04
Sep'04 -Feb'05
Dec'04 -Apr'05
Mar'05 -Jul'05
Auto magazines
Source: National Readership Survey - Russia
24© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
«Age Pyramid» - RF Census 1989
Ths. persons
Age1890
1900
1960
1940
1950
1970
1910
1980
1930
1920
Year of Birth
Birth-rate: 1st World WarDeath-rate: 2nd World War
Birth-rate: famine, collectivization
Birth-rate: «1st war wave»
Birth-rate: «2nd war wave»
Men Women
Source: Goscomstat RF
25© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
«Age Pyramid» - RF Census 2002
Ths. persons
Age
Birth-rate: 1st World WarDeath-rate: 2nd World War
Birth-rate: famine, collectivization
Birth-rate: «1st war wave»
Birth-rate: «2nd war wave»
Men Women1910
1920
1980
1960
1970
1990
1930
2000
1950
1940
Year of Birth
Birth-rate: «3rd war wave»;
Birth-rate: Perestroyka reforms
26© 2005, TNS Gallup Media
Summary
Source: TNS Gallup AdFact
Рост рекламного рынка на 36% до 2008 года
Замедление темпов роста рекламного рынка
Рост доли ТВ
Рост аудитории глянцевых журналов, стабильная аудитория газет и безнес изданий
Увеличение конкуренции со стороны новых медиа
Увеличение доли бюджетов на интернет, кино, indoor
Увеличение аудитории интернета – прямая конкуренция для b-t-b, рекламных и новостных изданий
Изменение демографического состава
27© 2005, TNS Gallup Media