Nail 03 2015 pdf

March, 2015 l The NAIL 1

2 The NAIL l March, 2015


The official magazine ofHome Builders Association

of Middle Tennessee

PresidentTrey Lewis

Vice PresidentRandall Smith

Secretary/TreasurerJohn Zelenak

Executive Vice PresidentJohn Sheley

Editor and DesignerJim Argo

StaffConnie NicleyPat Newsome

THE NAIL is published monthly by theHome Builders Association of MiddleTennessee, a non-profit trade associationdedicated to promoting the Americandream of homeownership to all residents of Middle Tennessee.

SUBMISSIONS: THE NAIL welcomesmanuscripts and photos related to theMiddle Tennessee housing industry forpublication. Editor reserves the right toedit due to content and space limitations.

POSTMASTER: Please send addresschanges to: HBAMT, 9007 OverlookBoulevard, Brentwood, TN 37027.Phone: (615) 377-1055.

THE

NAIL


FEATURES

9Boomerang Millennials a boost to housing demand

An NAHB study says to expect “boomerang millennials to provide a major boost to housing demand in the

year’s ahead.

10Home Show at Nashville

Fairgrounds a hit The Annual Home Show returned to the

State Fairgrounds last month and enjoyed big crowds despite wintry weather mix.

DEPARTMENTS

6News & Information

13SPIKE Club Report

14March Calendar

14Chapters and Councils

ON THE COVER:Boomerang Millennials could provide a major boost in housing demand in the year’s ahead.

More details on page nine.


Sales of newly built, single-family homes dropped 0.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of

481,000 units from an elevated December reading, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.

“The fact that January sales numbers main-tained the gains we made in December is en-couraging news, especially considering harsh weather affecting certain parts of the country,”

said Tom Woods, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo.

“In a promising sign, new home sales have been trending at post-recession highs for the past two months,” said NAHB Chief Econo-mist David Crowe. “As the economy strength-ens and mortgage rates remain low, we can expect continued upward movement in the housing market this year.”

The inventory of new homes for sale was at 218,000 in January, which is a 5.4-month supply at the current sales pace.

Regionally, new home sales rose 19.2 percent in the Midwest and 2.2 percent in the South. Sales dropped 0.8 percent in the West and 51.6 percent in the Northeast, most likely due to adverse weather conditions in that geographic area. n

New home sales hold steady in January

NEws&INfo

That January sales numbers maintained the gains made in December is encouraging, espe-cially considering harsh weather affecting certain areas.


Nationwide housing starts fell 2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.065 million units in January, accord-

ing to newly released data from the U.S. Com-merce Department. This drop was mainly due to a 22.2 percent decrease in the Midwest.

Single-family housing production fell 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 678,000 in January while multifamily starts rose 7.5 percent to 387,000 units.

“These numbers are consistent with our recent surveys and are primarily due to severe weather hitting the Midwest and other parts of the coun-try,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods.

“After a strong single-family report in De-cember, it is not surprising to see some pull back in January,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “With continued job creation and a growing economy, single-family production should make gains in the year ahead.”

Regionally in January, combined single- and multifamily housing production increased 6.5 percent in the South. Total starts fell in the North-east, Midwest and West, with respective losses of 3.5 percent, 22.2 percent and 3.4 percent.

Overall permit issuance was down 0.7 per-

cent in January to a rate of 1.053 million. Sin-gle-family permits decreased 3.1 percent to 654,000 units while multifamily permits rose 3.6 percent to a rate of 399,000 units.

Regionally, permits were mixed in Janu-ary. The Northeast and West registered gains of 29.5 percent and 16.8 percent, respectively, while the Midwest and South dropped 16 per-cent and 8.7 percent, respectively.

Builder confidence slightly lowerBuilder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in February fell two points to a level of 55 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released recently.

“Overall, builder sentiment remains fairly solid, with this slight downturn largely attrib-utable to the unusually high snow levels across much of the nation,” said Woods.

“For the past eight months, confidence lev-els have held in the mid- to upper 50s range, which is consistent with a modest, ongoing recovery,” said Crowe. “Solid job growth, af-fordable home prices and historically low mort-gage rates should help unleash growing pent-up demand and keep the housing market moving

forward in the year ahead.”Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB

has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges build-er perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two of the three HMI components posted losses in February. The component gauging cur-rent sales conditions edged one point lower to 61 while the component measuring buyer traffic fell five points to 39. The gauge charting sales expec-tations in the next six months held steady at 60.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell a sin-gle point to 46, and the Midwest and South each posted a two-point drop to 54 and 57, respec-tively. The West rose two points to 68.

Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the prod-uct of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public. HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More informa-tion on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com. n

Housing starts down 2 percent in January

BuilderBooks, the book publishing arm of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released

a new publication, Financial Forecasting in Microsoft® Excel.

Financial Forecasting in Microsoft Excel shows small- to medium-sized businesses how to achieve the same forecasting power as larger companies. Filled with a wealth of il-lustrations and how-to templates, the book is written to help business owners make better, more educated decisions that result in more stable, enduring companies.

Author Jeff Prager shows readers how to use Excel to run “if/then” scenarios, calculate cash flow projections, structure partnerships and financing, and test how changes in the market or pricing will affect the bottom line.

Financial Forecasting in Microsoft Excel provides step-by-step instructions for creating financial forecasts with Microsoft Excel 2010 so readers can:

• Assess project feasibility • Fund company cash needs • Determine financial feasibility of a project

before committing • Identify problems before they become major

Jeff Prager has founded, owned and sold multiple businesses, including Strauss Homes, a large home building company based in Denver. He’s the founder of Back-room Management Services, a full-service accounting firm specializing in the con-struction industry, and promotes the concept of Cash Flow Engineering as a way to streamline business management and ensure consistent and predictable cash flow.

Financial Forecasting in Microsoft Excel is available for purchase ($44.95 Retail/$39.95 NAHB Member, ISBN 978-0-86718-733-5) at BuilderBooks.com or by calling 800-223-2665. The eBook is available at ebooks.builderbooks.com ($31.99 Retail/$26.99 for

NAHB Members).[Editor’s Note: Editors who are interested in

receiving a complimentary copy of Financial Forecasting in Microsoft Excel to review for their publications should contact Patricia Potts at 202-266-8224 or [email protected]].

Accurately forecast cash flow with new NAHB publication


Boomerang millennials a promising sign NAHB Analysis Reveals Significant Pent-up Housing Demand from Key Demographic.

A recent study of “Boomerang Millennials” who move out of their parents’ home only to move back in may have important implications for this key demographic and what it means for the housing market.

The NAHB examined recent research conducted by Judith Dey and Charles Pierret using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997. The examination found higher incidence of “re-launch” for Millennials with a Bachelor’s degree compared to those with a lower education attainment and higher incidence of “re-launch” for Millennials from higher parental income household compared to lower parental income households. A “re-launch” occurs when a young adult moves out, returns to the parental household, and then leaves again.

“Understanding the makeup of those who return home could shed light on the timing of the release of what we know is quite a bit of pent-up demand,” said NAHB Chief Economist Da-vid Crowe. “The data may indicate that while this age group is delaying what we think of as typical milestones, the combination of resources and education and what we have found about their preferences suggest growing housing demand in the years ahead.”

Ninety percent of those born between 1980 and 1984 left home be-fore the age of 27 – but then more than half returned to their parents’ homes. Of that group, those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher had the highest share of returning to the parental home at 55.5%. Mean-while, those born between 1980 and 1984 with a high school degree had the lowest share returning to the parental home at 42.1%. When looking at parental income, the research reveals that parents in the top half of the income distribution experienced a higher occurrence of boomerang children than those in the bottom half.

Another important difference is gender: Twelve percent of men in this age group never left the parental home, whereas 7.6% of women stayed. And although women are more likely to boomer-ang, they are also more likely to leave again.

Studies continue to show that the desire to own a home re-mains strong for these Millennials. Despite data showing that the age group is delaying household formation, they remain a key demographic in the housing market, and the pent-up demand is expected to translate into housing growth in the coming years.

For more information, please see the full analysis at http://eyeonhousing.org/2015/02/nearly-half-of-young-millennials-boomerang/. n


Home Show returns to fairgroundsThe 2015 Home Show returned last month to the Nashville

Fairgrounds and big crowds during a three-day weekend that had to contend with uncooperative weather during its opening day. However, strong attendance numbers on Saturday and

Sunday made up for Friday’s slow start and exhibitors enjoyed robust, energetic crowds right up until the closing hour.

“The 2015 Home Show has been a big success for us,” said Tracy Spencer from All-American Home Design. “We’ve gotten [lots] of leads and are already looking forward to next year’s show.”

Attendees were delighted to find the usual vendors, products and edu-cational seminars available at the Home Show, as well as a new feature: the “Parade of Pet Homes,” an area of custom-built pet homes created by HBAMT members. See page 12 of this issue for more!

The 2016 Home Show is already signing up vendors for next year’s event scheduled for another three-day run in February.

Call the HBAMT at (615) 377-1055 to request your 2016 Home Show registration form. Or visit the event’s page at www.hbamt.org for more information (coming soon). n


With many households curled up indoors during the cold, wintry week leading up to the Home Show, the event was no doubt seen again and again on television and comput-er screens by a public hungry for weather updates and entertainment.

Local coverage included an appearance by Home Show Chairman Lori Fisk-Conners on Channel 5’s Talk of the Town with Meryll Rose (at right); Gina Hewlett from Louisville Tile on More at Midday on Channel 4 with Kacy Hagerty (lower left); and John Whitak-er with Terry Bulger on-site with Channel 4’s Terry Bulger (lower right). n

Home Show enjoys local media coverage


Parade of Pet Homes!

Broderick Builders“The Andromeda”

Nashville House & Home & Garden Magazine“Country Dog House”

Tant Industries“Doggie Cottage”

The Miles Company“The Traditional”

Louisville Tiles“Doggie Diner”

Nashville House & Home & Garden Magazine“The Little Princess”

A “Parade of Pet Homes” with custom built houses constructed by HBAMT builders and architects were a big hit at this year’s Home Show. Visitors casted their ballots for their favorite creations and the “People’s Choice” winning house was given away to one lucky voter. The others were auctioned off to their highest bidder with the proceeds going to animal-related charities. n


sPIKE REPoRT

Nineteen SPIKES (in bold) increased their recruitmentnumbers last month. What is a SPIKE? SPIKES recruit new members and help the association retain members. Here is the latest SPIKE report as of January 31, 2015.

Top 20 Big Spikes

Jim Ford 912Virgil Ray 821Bill King 776Mitzi Spann 691Terry Cobb 566Jim Fischer 566John Whitaker 410James Carbine 339Jennifer Earnest 333Dan Stern 306Kevin Hale 287Tonya Jones 271Reese Smith III 260David Crane 258Steve Moody 219Sonny Shackelford 218Trey Lewis 194Davis Lamb 189Cyril Evers 182Jackson Downey 174

Life Spikes

Tim Ferguson 172Jim McLean 164Louise Stark 163Harry Johnson 146Steve Cates 140C.W. Bartlett 138James Franks 137Tonya Alexander 128Sam Carbine 123Steve Hewlett 119Carmen Butner 108B.J. Hanson 102Dave McGowan 102Johnny Watson 101Julie DuPree 87Duane Vanhook 87Jeff Zeitlin 87Jordan Clark 86Erin Richardson 76Jeff Slusher 70John Baugh 68Wiggs Thompson 67Don Bruce 62Jim Ford, Jr. 62Hill McAlister 57Beth Sturm 55Joe Morgan 54John Broderick 53Gerald Bucy 53Michael Dillon 53Lori Fisk-Conners 50David Hughes 50Al Davis 47Sheila Rawlings 47Bernie Laine 46Greg Langley 46Benny Sullivan 46

Andrew Neuman 45Bryan Edwards 44Kay Russell 44John Ganschow 42Peggy Krebs 40David Lippe 38Andy Wyatt 37Chuck Clarkson 36Frank Miller 36Brad Butler 35Al Hacker 34Christina Cunningham 33Ray Edwards 32Dan Strebel 32Steve Wheeley 30Alvin Basel 29

Spikes

Marty Maitland 20Justin Hicks 19Don Mahone 19Tracy Lomax 14Derenda Sircy 14Frank Tyree 13Pam Smith 10Randall Smith 10Don Alexander 9Gina Hewlett 6


1 2 3 4 5Sales & Marketing Council meeting

6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16Dickson County Chapter

meeting

17Williamson County Chapter

meeting

18Remodelers

Council meeting

19 20 21

22 23Metro/Nashville Chapter

meeting

24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31 1 2Sales & Marketing Council meeting

3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

MARCH CALENdAR

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

CHAPTERS

CHEATHAM COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - Roy Miles: 615/646-3303Cheatham County Chapter details are being planned.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 310

DICKSON COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - Mark Denney: 615/446-2873.The Dickson County Chapter meets on the third Monday of the month, 12:00 p.m. at the Ponderosa Restaurant in Dickson.Next meeting: Monday, March 16.Topic: to be announced. Price: FREE, lunch dutch treat.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 307

MAURY COUNTY CHAPTERMaury County Chapter details are currently being planned.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 312; for callers outside the 615 area code, 1-800-571-9995, ext. 312

METRO/NASHVILLE CHAPTERChapter President - John Whitaker: 615/843-3300.The Metro/Nashville Chapter meets on the fourth Monday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: Monday, March 23. Topic: to be announced. Builders Free pending sponsorshipPrice: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP).Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 304

ROBERTSON COUNTY CHAPTERNext meeting: to be announced.Robertson County RSVP line: 615-377-9651, ext. 313.

SUMNER COUNTY CHAPTERThe Sumner County Chapter meets on the fourth Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the new Hendersonville Library.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 306

WILLIAMSON COUNTY CHAPTERChapter President - BJ Hanson: 615/884-4935.The Williamson County Chapter meets on the third Tuesday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: Tuesday, March 17. Topic: “Protect Yourself from FREEZE-THAW Damage Claims.”Builders Free thanks to Williamson County Ready Mix.Price: $10 per person with RSVP ($20 w/o RSVP). Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 305

WILSON COUNTY CHAPTERThe Wilson County Chapter meets on the second Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the Five Oaks Golf & Country Club in Lebanon.Next meeting: to be announced.Chapter RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 309

COUNCILS

GREEN BUILDING COUNCILCouncil President - Erin Richardson: 615/883-8526.The Green Building Council meets on the fourth Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m.

Next meeting: to be announced.Topic: to be announced.Price: free for Green Building Council members pending sponsorship; $20 for non-members with RSVP ($25 w/o).Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 308

HBAMT REMODELERS COUNCILCouncil President - Ricky Scott.The HBAMT Remodelers Council meets on the third Wednesday of the month, 11:00 a.m. at varying locations.Next meeting: Wednesday, March 18.Location: to be announced. Topic: to be announced.Price: free for RMC members with RSVP; $15 for non-members with RSVP ($20 w/o).Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 301

INFILL BUILDERS COUNCILThe Infill Builders meets on the third Thursday of the month, 11:30 a.m. at the HBAMT offices until further notice.Next meeting: to be announced.Council RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 311

MIDDLE TENN SALES & MARKETING COUNCILCouncil President - Derenda Sircy.The SMC meets on the first Thursday of the month, 9:00 a.m. at the HBAMT offices.Next meeting: Thursday, March 5.Topic: “Social Media,” with Margaret TolbertSMC members FREE with RSVP thanks to TN Media; non-SMC members $25 w/RSVP, $35 w/o RSVPCouncil RSVP Line: 615/377-9651, ext. 302.

CHAPTERs & CouNCILs

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