N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

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Transcript of N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide® Company Market Overview

  • 1. Market UpdateNovember 2006

2. Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index 6%5%4%3%2%1%0% 00 01 02030405 06 06 06 2020 20 20 2020 20 20 20Q1Q2Q3GDP CPI CPI less Food and EnergySource: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics 3. -2%0% 2%4% 6%8% Q1 '00 Q2 '00Q3 '00 Q4 '00Q1 '01 Q2 '01GDP Q3 '01 Q4 '01Q1 '02 Q2 '02Q3 '02CPI Q4 '02Q1 '03 Q2 '03 Q3 '03Q4 '03 Q1 '04 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics Q2 '04 Q3 '04Q4 '04 Q1 '05 Quarterly GDP and CPI Q2 '05 Q3 '05Q4 '05CPI less Food and EnergyQ1 '06Q2 '06 Q3 '060% 2%4% 6%8% -2% 4. Prime Rate10%9%8.25% 8%7%6%5%4%3% 0 1 23 45 nt 00 0000 0000 00 rre /2 /2/2 /2/2 /2Cu /1 /1/1 /1/1 /1121212 1212 12 Source: Federal Reserve Board 5. Average Hourly Earnings ofProduction Workers $17.750.70% $17.25$16.910.60%$16.750.50%$16.25$15.750.40%$15.250.30%$14.75 $14.250.20% $13.750.10%$13.250.00%$12.75 $12.25-0.10%10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September 10/062006 Average Hourly 1 month % changeSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6. Changes in Non-Farm Payroll Employment600 (000s) 400200 92,000 0 10/0010/0110/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September10/06 2006-200 -400 -600Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7. Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0%4.4%4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 10/0010/0110/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September 10/06 2006Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 8. Average Unemployment andNew Light Vehicle Sales 6.5%18,000(000s) NADAs estimate for6.0%CY 2006 5.5%5.0%16,0004.5%4.0%3.5%14,00060001 02 030405 00 202020 20 20202 erbto Oc UnemploymentNLVSSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automotive News, and NADA Industry Analysis 9. Consumer Price Index andY-O-Y Wage Growth 5%4%3%2%1%0%6 00 010203 04 0500 202020 20 2020 r2 be emptSe CPI Wage Growth*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - *Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers 10. Retail Gasoline andOn-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices$3.50 *Price of gas peaked at $3.069 $3.10$2.70$2.30$1.90$1.50 Gas $2.20 $1.10Diesel $2.506 $0.70k 500 0102 0304 05 6ee 00005/ 1/0/ 9/7/ 6/W ,2,2/2 /3/3 /2/2 /2 st 5 r612 1212 12 12 12 Lat. be epm *S ve NoGasDieselSource: Energy Information AdministrationGas - regular grade, price per gallon (includes all taxes) 11. New Vehicle Market 12. Whats New on Wheels Salzburg, AustriaEmily Post herself is not as refined as Lexuss all-new, fourth-generation LS 460, in showrooms this month.The leather steering wheel is buffed for six hours, and the headlights inspired by Baccarat stemwareevoke lead crystal. Then theres the massaging/reclining rear seat, 19-speaker Mark Levinson audio, power sunshades, and up to 11 airbags. A parking-guidance system even steers the car into place, using a rear camera and sonar.Under the hood, a 380-hp V8with 30 percent more gusto than its predecessoris mated to the worlds first eight-speed automatic. Along with base and long-wheelbase models, a hybrid arrives next spring.Price: $70,000 (est.). Mileage: 19 city/ 27 highway. Competition: Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class. 13. Whats New on Wheels Washington, D.C.Hipper inside and out, Saturns new Aura is built on the same platform as the Saab 9-3. The result: Euro-like ride and handling. Two trim levels, with choice of V6 engines. Options: heated seats/mirrors, steering-wheel audio controls, and remote-start system.Price: $20,000. Mileage: 20 city/29 highway. Competition: Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camry. 14. Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales1,825 (000s) 1.8m - all-time high1,625 1,425 1,225 1,025 Nov. Dec.Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.MayJun.Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 Source: Automotive News Data Center 15. Y-O-Y Volume % ChangeOctober 2006 YTDTruck-based SUVs Pickups MiniVans/Vans Luxury Cars Middle Cars Large Cars Small Cars CUVs-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%Source: Wards Automotive Reports 16. Y-O-Y Market Share % October 2006 YTDLarge CarsLuxury Cars2006MiniVans/Vans2005Truck-based SUVs CUVsSmall CarsPickupsMiddle Cars 0%5% 10%15% 20%25%Source: Wards Automotive Reports 17. New Light Vehicle Sales October 2006 YTDCar and truck sales -2.9% versus same time period 2005Trucks represented 50.5% of total sales versus 53.0% same time period 2005Toyota Division and Honda Division gained both car and truck market share Source: Automotive News Data Center 18. New Light Vehicle Sales October 2006 YTD Top five car market share gainers Toyota Division, Ford Division, Lexus, Volkswagen Division, and ScionTop five truck market share gainers Toyota Division, Honda Division, Mercedes- Benz, Pontiac, and KiaSource: Automotive News Data Center 19. Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales October1,600 (000s)1,200 Cars-3.5%Cars Trucks 16.3% Total6.1% 800 Trucks Total 400 0October 2006 October 2005Source: Automotive News Data Center 20. Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober YTD 15,000 (000s) 11,250 Cars 2.2%Trucks-7.4%Total -2.9%Cars 7,500Trucks Total3,750 0 October 2006 YTDOctober 2005 YTDSource: Automotive News Data Center 21. Top Ten Selling Makes (New) October 2006 YTD 2400(000s) Ford DivisionChevroletToyota Division 180073.5% of total sales Honda DivisionDodge 1200 Nissan DivisionChrysler Division 600 Hyundai DivisionGMCJeep0Source: Automotive News Data Center 22. Top Ten Selling Models (New) October 2006 YTD800(000s) F-Series PUSilverado PUCamry60023.8% of total sales Ram PUAccord400 CivicImpala 200CorollaAltimaCobalt0 Source: Automotive News Data Center 23. Total New Light Vehicle Sales18,000(000s)17.4m all-time high 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 20002001 20022003 2004 2005 NADA's est. 2006 Source: Automotive News Data Center 24. New Light Vehicle Sales Cars v. Trucks 10,000 (000s) Trucks Outsell Cars 8,000 Cars Trucks 6,000 4,000 2000200120022003 2004 2005October2006 YTDSource: Automotive News Data Center 25. Franchised Dealer Light VehicleAverage Selling Price (New)$30,000$28,123 $28,000 $26,000 $24,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006Source: NADA Industry Analysis 26. Average Finance Rate and Loan Length at Auto Finance Companies 8.5% 66months 7.5% 636.5% 605.5% 574.5% 543.5% 512.5% 48 6 Q4 Q4 Q4Q4 Q4Q4 00 00 0102030405 r2beemptSeAverage Finance RateAverage Loan LengthSource: NADA Industry Analysis and Federal Reserve Board 27. Used Vehicle Market 28. Y-O-Y Used Vehicles Sold by Franchised and Independent Dealers3,800 (000s) 3,175 2,550 1,925 1,300Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.2004 - 20052005 - 2006 Source: CNW Marketing 29. Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (Used)$17,000 $16,000 $15,514$15,000 $14,000 $13,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005August 2006Source: NADA Industry Analysis 30. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline November 2006 YTD- 1 Year Old Vehicles 0%CavalierSilverado 1500 PU-5% Grand CaravanRam 1500 PU -10% FocusTaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord Median -11.02% YTD, CY 2005 -7.94% 4Runner -30% LeSabreCorolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition 31. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005 0%CavalierSilverado 1500 PU-5% Grand CaravanRam 1500 PU -10% FocusTaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord4Runner -30% LeSabreCorolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition 32. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004 0%CavalierSilverado 1500 PU -5%Grand CaravanRam 1500 PU -10% FocusTaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord4Runner -30% LeSabreCorolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition 33. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003 0%CavalierSilverado 1500 PU -5%Grand CaravanRam 1500 PU -10% EscortTaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord4Runner -30% LeSabreCorolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition 34. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline November 2006 YTD - 2 Year Old Vehicles 0%Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU -5% Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus -10% Taurus Expedition -15%Explorer F150 PU -20%Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry -25% Median -11.30% YTD, CY 2005 -7.69%Accord 4Runner -30%LeSabre Corolla -35%Mustang Eastern Edition 35. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005 0% CavalierSilverado 1500 PU -5%Grand CaravanRam 1500 PUFocus -10%TaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord4Runner -30% LeSabreCorolla -35% Mustang Eastern Edition 36. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004 0%CavalierSilverado 1500 PU-5% Grand CaravanRam 1500 PU -10% EscortTaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord4Runner -30% LeSabreCorollaMustang -35% Eastern Edition 37. N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide Trade-In Value % Decline2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003 0%CavalierSilverado 1500 PU-5% Grand CaravanRam 1500 PU -10% EscortTaurusExpedition -15% ExplorerF150 PU -20% RangerGrand CherokeeCamry -25%Accord4Runner -30% LeSabreCorollaMustang -35% Eastern Edition 38. Certified Used Vehicle SalesSeptember 2006 YTD 250,000 187,500 Total Sales 1,256,559125,000 62,500 0ChevroletToyota Division Honda DivisionFord DivisionBMWPontiac Dodge Nissan DivisionMercedes-BenzGMC Lexus BuickCadillac Chrysler Division Volkswagen Division AcuraVolvoJeepLincoln - Mercury AudiSaturn JaguarSaabLand RoverPorscheMazda*OldsmobileSubaru*Infiniti MitsubishiHummerSuzukiHyundai*Source: Automotive News Data Center *Estimate 39. Used Vehicles Sold byFranchised New-Car Dealers 26,000(000s) 21.322,000 Wholesaled18,000 Retailed14,000 Total 10,0006,00020002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: NADA Industry Analysis 40. Franchised New-Car DealerSource of Used Vehicle Retailed70% 60% 50%Trade-In Auction 40%St