korica2-50 cTitle: korica2-50_c.cdr Author: murry Created Date: 1/24/2019 1:33:58 PM
Murry Meaton - Economics Consulting Services
22
Primary Energy Sources and Future Competition February 2017
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Transcript of Murry Meaton - Economics Consulting Services
Primary Energy Sources and Future Competition
February 2017
1. Coal
2. Oil and Gas
3. Renewables
4. Electricity
i. Historyii. Outputiii. Trends
Coal1. Collie opened 1894 for railway and steamship fuel – 123 years
2. One company by 1925 – all underground mines
3. Open cut mines
4. Total resource estimated at 6,400 mt – 1,000 years
5. 2 companies – one Chinese, one Indian
6. Premier Coal supplies Muja A/B/C/D and Collie A
7. Griffin Coal supplies Bluewaters and Worsley Alumina
Coal Future:
Oil and Gas
First oil Barrow Island 1967 – 50 years
First gas to Perth 1971 (Dongara) and 1984 (NWSJV)
Oil and Gas
First LNG in 1989Million tonnes
Petroleum resources:
Carnarvon – 104,000Browse – 37,000Bonaparte – 26,000Other – 29,500Total – 196,500Used – 15,000 (7.5%)
PJ
Conventional – 92%CSG – 8%
Under construction
Gorgon – T1, T2, T3 – 2015 to 2018 (15mt)
Wheatstone T1, T2 – June 2017 (8.9mt)
Prelude – early 2018 (3.5mt)
Ichthys T1 – mid 2018 (8.4mt)
Operating capacity – 20.6
New capacity – 35.8
Total – 56.4
Potential Developments:
Browse – Woodside/Shell
Scarborough – Exxon/BHPB
Gorgon 4 / 5 – Chevron
Pluto 2 – Woodside (Hess)
Wheatstone 3/4/5 - Chevron
Bonaparte - GDF Suez
Cash Maple – PTTP/Santos
Greater Sunrise
Domgas capacity (TJ/day)
Plant operator Capacity New plant Capacity
Woodside 630 Gorgon 300
Quadrant 680 Wheatstone 200
Macedon 220
Beharra Springs 20
Dongara 7
Xyris 10
Red Gully 10
Total 1, 577 500
Oil and Gas
Domgas and LNG gas production – historic
GSOO January 20142000 – Domgas 35% share2012-13 – 23%
Oil and Gas
Domgas and LNG gas production – future
GSOO December 20162000 – Domgas 9%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Domgas LNG
Average Domgas price – ex field ($/GJ)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Contract Domgas price – ex field and delivered ($/GJ)
Source: Oakley Greenwood, December 2015 Fig 45
Gas price forecast
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Average New Contract
Renewables
1. Hydro -Wellington Dam 1950’s (2MW), Ord River (70MW)
2. Australia’s 1st wind farm at Esperance 1993 (2MW)
3. Wind now 468MW (45% Colgar)
4. Wave – 1MW Garden Island coming
5. Rooftop PV - 530MW
6. New PV in next 10 years – 820MW
7. Total rooftop PV in 2025 – 1,400MW
8. Synergy coal capacity – 1,434
Electricity Generation in SWIS
SWIS Electricity forecast (MW)
Government policies:
•Gas reservation for domestic market – 15% •Retention lease renewal•Joint marketing •Local content•Fraccing
Gas price forecast
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Average New Contract
Oil and Gas
Domgas and LNG gas production – historic
GSOO January 20142000 – Domgas 35% share2012-13 – 23%
Economics Consulting Services9 Havelock Street, West Perth
Western Australia
www.econs.com.au
