Multiplying Capitals: The Challenge of Quantitative Modeling Using the

Community Capitals Framework

Stephen GasteyerMichigan State University

Why integrate CCF with biophysical and socio-economic modeling efforts

• There are increasing attempts to model biophysical processes

• There are increasing calls from policy and decision makers to use models to mitigate risk

• There is increasing recognition of the import of socio-economic processes

Some challenges to use of CCF

• Models are predictive…• CCF is an heuristic device – a framework…• In and of itself, it is not a theory – and therefore

does not imply hypotheses• It therefore needs to be married with other

frameworks to be used in making prediction• Or needs to adopt a more historical approach

that allows for prediction using the framework as a heuristic

Additional challenges

• CCF is not based on mathematical principles

• Indeed, while there is a focus on indicators, many of the most important indicators are qualitative and have to be constructed into quantitative measures

• CCF is contextual – so there is a challenge in rigorously aggregating over space

Key connections to existing frameworks

• Resilience theory – (Regime Theory)• Risk theory – Renn’s dialogic frameworks…• Socioecological Systems (SES)– Derivative from Institutional Analysis for

Development (IAD)– Integrating social systems theories…– Integrating actual community dynamics

• Capacity theory…

Quantifying Capitals

Community Capitals

Framework

Natural

Social

Cultural

Financial

Built

Human

Political

Secondary Data

Natural

Financial

Survey

Social

Built

Natural

InterviewsPolitical

Human

Community Capitals

Framework

Secondary Data1. Financial Capital

1. Population Change2. Poverty reduction 3. Change in number of small

businesses 4. Income

2. Built Capital1. Change in Vacant Housing Units 2. Local industries # increasing/

Decreasing?

3. Political Capital1. Consolidated Federal Funds (OMB)2. USDA RD Funding (USDA)

1. Natural Capital1. Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) 2. Soil Quality (USDA) 3. Air Quality (EPA4. Land Use (NRI – Regional Planning)5. Water Use (USGS)6. Water Quality (EPA)

2. Cultural Capital1. How far people travel to get to work

(Census-- stay in community or leave?)3. Human Capital

1. Graduation Rates from elementary school, middle school and high school

2. Out-migration/ in-migration of educated population?

3. Education levels of community members4. Change in % of people of working age (18

to 64) 5. Change in % of Employment

Primary Indicators

• Social Capital• Cultural Capital

Safer LessTrash

Im-prove-ments

NeighborsInteract

NeighborsTrust

MSUMowing

Neigh-borhoodChanged

0

20

40

60

80

100

Perc

enta

ge o

f res

pond

ents

w

ho g

ener

ally

agr

ee

Measuring Capacities

Modeling CCF?

• Path Models

• Structural Equation Models

• Models of Resilience

Conclusion Modeling CCF

• What are the strategies for modeling CCF across time and space?

• How to integrate with biophysical models?

• Can CCF integrate with predictive theories?