Multimodal Study onFreight Transportation in Québec

Transportation Border Working GroupSpring 2014 Meeting

Buffalo, NYApril 8, 2014

Claude Sirois

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Presentation Overview

• Objective, structure and scope of the study

• Overview of the database

• Profile of freight transportation in Québec

• Assessment of intermodality potential, methodology and observations

• Conclusion

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Objective of the study

• Support Sustainable Mobility Regional Plans

• Characterize current and future (2026) supply and demand for freight transportation for all modes

• Develop and apply a methodology to assess Intermodality Potential

• Three scales of analysis– Québec– Major transportation corridors (11) – Regions (16)

Structure of the study

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Block 1Exploit existing data available instudies, DB, etc.

Block 2Filling the gaps

Block 3

Long/short (MTL only) distance truckingRoad performance

MarineAirRail Integration of Block 2

Into Block 1

Targeted interviews

CarriersNetwork and equipment managers

ShippersMTQ staff

Current and future (2026) multimodaltransportation profile and assessment ofIntermodality potential

Québec 11 corridors 16 regions

Forecast 2026

Assessment of intermodality

potential

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Scope and Limitations of the Study

• Aggregation of data by region• MTQ provincial network• Interregional freight movements

– Trucking : Interurban/interregional movements (+ 80 km)• Different data sources and periods (2006-2010)• Confidentiality of some information

– Rail/Air companies– Shippers

Overview of the database

Physical characteristicsCapacity/DemandNetwork Performance (index)

Road data (MTQ/CG studies)Forecast 2026 (O/D Survey + other)

SO

UR

CE

S

EX

CE

L Phys. Char. AADT, AADTT,CDI, TW-CDI+/- 2008 / Forecast 2026

NRS 99 / 06-07 (MTQ/TC)Forecast 2026 (IHS GI/MTO)

SO

UR

CE

S

TR

AN

SC

AD Truck/Tonnage Flows

Road Performance

Trucking

290 000 truck movementsType of CommoditiesWeight/VolumeMany other informations

PO

WE

R P

IVO

T

O/D truck movements(Desire Lines)

TR

AN

SC

AD

Rail Companies (interviews)CG StudiesForecast 2026 (IHS GI)Mining Dev. Forecast (MRN)

SO

UR

CE

S

TR

AN

SC

AD Physical characteristics

Demand (flows)Bottlenecks/issues on the network

Rail

Physical characteristicsCurrent/future tonnagesCommodities (incomplete)Network Performance

EX

CE

L

GISTabular Data

Overview of the database

Shipping in Canada 2000-2011 (StatCan)Other Marine Data (TC)Forecast (IHS GI)Mining Dev. Forecast (MRN)S

OU

RC

ES

TR

AN

SC

AD

Tonnages / PortFlows between ports

Marine

O/D Marine Database- Tonnages- Commodities- Ports, country, regions

PO

WE

R P

IVO

T

Aircraft Movements (TC)Air Link Capacities (CFG)Demand (RTG)Forecast (TC : 2007)S

OU

RC

ES

TR

AN

SC

AD Capacity (Flows)

Airplane Mov. / Airport

Air

# of Aircraft MovementsCapacity/Link

EX

CE

L

InternationalAirports only

GIS

Tabular Data

Profile of Québec – Geographic Scope

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• 11 800 km of roads • 7 border crossings

– 4 in QC, 3 in ON • 6 200 km of railways • 6 intermodal terminals • 21 railways• 31 ports• 42 airports

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Profile of Québec – Tonnages

*Road mode doesn’t include truck movements under 80 km

Tonnages with an origin ora destination in Québec

Ton-kilometre onQuébec’s road and rail networks

Air - 274 000 tonnes (0,1%)

Marine

Rail

Road

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Profile of Québec – Modal Flows

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Profile of Québec – Modal Flows in corridors

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Profile of Québec – Truck flows through border

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Profile of Québec – Desire Lines

Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and New York

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Profile of Québec – Empty trucks

Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Maine

• % of empty trucks according to the distance

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Profile of Québec – Air links capacity

Profile of Québec – Supply Chains

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• Significant presence of supply chains based on natural resources / transformed products from natural resources

• Commodity supply chains usually favor 1 or 2 modes

Minerals Manufactured andMiscellaneous goods

Agriculture andFood products

Fuel and Basicchemicals

Pulp andPaper products

50 %

66 % 49 % 61 % 74 %

40 %40 %

MarineRailRoad

Profile of Québec – Modal shares

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• Modal shares at the Québec / U.S. States Border• Québec / NY+VT+ME globally : Rail 47 % / Road 53 %

Québec–

New York

43 %57 %

RailRoad

20 %

80 %56 %44 %

Québec–

VermontQuébec

–Maine

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Profile of Québec – Forecast 2026

• Development of mining projects in Northern Québec has an important impact on rail and marine forecasts for 2026

Annual growth rates :

Trucking : Number of movements 2006 - 2026Rail :Ton-kilometre 2010 - 2026Marine : Handled tonnages 2010 - 2026Air : Handled tonnages at three internationalairports 2007 - 2026

Annu

al g

row

th ra

tes

TruckingRailMarineAir

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Profile of Québec – Major Constraints

• Road congestion on the Island of Montréal

• Utilization rates on rail lines (passengers vs freight trains)

• Handling capacity for containers at the Port of Montréal

• Increase of air cargo

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Intermodality Potential – Methodology

• National Roadside Survey 2006-2007

• Filtering data according to movement features

• Focus on movements which have Québec as an origin or a destination

• Detailed analysis of flows with an important potential

Propriétés logistiques

Produit

Valeur Poids Vélocité

Seuil d’intermodalité par produit : distance (km)

Flux routier : Produit - distance (km)

Flux routier (km) > seuil du produit correspondant

Autre contrainte

s

Origine et destination extérieures au Québec

Intermodalité ferroviaire

Intermodalité maritime

Potentiel aller

Potentiel retour

Potentiel global excellent ou bon

Potentiel aller

Potentiel retour

Disponibilité

Potentiel global excellent ou bon

Analyse détaillée

Analyse détaillée

Oui Non

Oui

Flux écarté

Flux écarté Non

Oui Oui Flux écarté Non Non

Étape 1 Étape 2

Étape 3 Étape 4

Étape 5

Intermodality Potential – Analysis

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Aggregated flows by region with an Intermodality potential

• 17 flows = 17 440 truck movements which represent 6% of all moves (291 200) and 26% of total km travelled

•No flows between 2 Québec regions

•Montréal, Montérégie and Québec City represent 75% of the movements with intermodality potential

Intermodality Potential – Observations

• Detailed qualitative analysis of the 17 flows (step 5) :– Precise O/Ds, commodities, transportation equipments, etc.

• Identification of many constraints to intermodality :– Multiple precise O/Ds– Consolidation of goods supplied by competitors– Short distances– Irregular flows– Higher delays/cost compared to trucking– Specialized equipment non-available

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Intermodality Potential – Observations

Additional observations…

• RAIL : Best opportunities are located where rail intermodal options already exist (ex. between Montréal and U.S.). Non-existence of intermodal equipments doesn’t seem to be a frequent constraint

• MARINE : No line services, insufficient volumes, closure of the St. Lawrence Seaway during 3 months (Ontario and Midwest) and longer marine distance (U.S. East Coast)

• TRUCKING : Choice of trucking often justified by its lower cost, more appropriate logistics, flexibility (last minute delivery, JIT, no need for consolidation)

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Intermodality Potential – Observations

• Global incentives might increase intermodality, however, only a low proportion of movements have the features associated with those types of supply chains

• Using a mode or another is an individual decision. The result of this analysis doesn’t mean there’s no opportunity to shift from the road mode to another one, even between 2 regions in Québec

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Thank you for your attention!Questions or comments?

Claude Siroisclaude.sirois@mtq.gouv.qc.ca

(418) 643-1772

www.mtq.gouv.qc.ca

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Additional slides

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Overview of the database

Excel spreadsheetRoad Performance Mapping

Data Sources Multimodal MappingTabular information

Trucking

Rail

Marine

Air

Analytical tool (Power Pivot) Mapping (flows)

Excel spreadsheet Mapping

Analytical tool (Power Pivot) Mapping (flows)

Excel spreadsheet Mapping

Overview of the database – Road Performance

Current data• +/- 2008• Updated yearly

Forecast• 2026• Update TBD

Overview of the database - Trucking

Current data• 2006-2007• Update TBD

Forecast• 2016, 2026• Update TBD

Overview of the database - Rail

Current data• 2010• Update TBD

Forecast• 2026• Update TBD

Overview of the database - Marine

Current data• 2000 - 2011• Updated yearly

Forecast• 2026 (base year 2010)• Update TBD

Overview of the database - Air

Aircraft Movements• 2006 - 2010• Yearly update

possible

Cargo Capacity• Week of 09/2011• Ponctual update

possible

Airport Data• Current : 2007• TC ceased to do

the forecast

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Profile of Québec – Desire Lines

Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Vermont

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Profile of Québec – Desire Lines

Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Maine

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Profile of Québec – Desire Lines

Truck movements during a week in 2006-2007 between Québec and Michigan