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this IssueInsideFocus storyIMF Spring Meeting ............................................................. 2Phase of Structural Changes Underway: Finance Minister at CII – Asia Society Event in New York ............................. 4

ADBContinued Reforms to Keep India on Rapid Growth Track ............................................................. 5ADB, USAID to Collaborate on Developing Clean Energy Infrastructure in India .......................................................... 6

INtErNAtIoNAL trADE cENtrEITC to survey non-tariff measures in Nepal and develop sector export strategies ........................................................ 7AfDB6 months into office, President Adesina shares his vision for the Bank and for Africa .................................................. 8

March 2016, Volume 3, Issue 8

Message from Mr Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII

amid the slowdown in China and emerging economies and the looming spectre of the u.K.’s departure from the european union, the iMF has cut global growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2% for 2016. a sharp focus is laid on issues such as pandemics, climate change and displacement.

During the recently concluded International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group Spring Meeting which was held recently in Washington DC, the IMF’s Managing Director declared that the fund is on alert, not on alarm, and believes that the global economy can recover and become more inclusive with the right policies. They urged for structural reforms in emerging markets, insisting that these are very diverse and that investors should be looking at the fundamentals over the medium to long term.

The recovery is projected to strengthen in 2017 and beyond, driven primarily by emerging market and developing economies, as conditions in stressed economies start gradually to normalize. But uncertainty has increased, and risks of weaker growth scenarios are becoming more tangible. The fragile conjuncture increases the urgency of a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities.

This edition of the Newsletter focuses on presenting a brief synopsis of the issues discussed during the Spring Meeting which will help shape the direction that the global economy will take.

Chandrajit Banerjee

Multilateral

APEcBridges Key to Prosperity in Transitioning Asia-Pacific ................9Trade Raises Living Standards in APEC Region: Report ............10

IFcHelping India reach its Energy Goals .......................................11

ILoWater drives job creation and economic growth, says new UN report .................................................................12

G20 / B20G20 Sherpa meets B20 representatives ....................................13

B20 Special Workshop at Boao ................................................13

NeWSletter

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The overarching theme of this year’s spring meetings was doom and gloom over the global economy, coupled with concern over how to resolve the refugee crisis. The IMF’s traditional role of monitoring and safeguarding the global economy looks set to be back in the frame more prominently. It is now deemed to be the key institution at the “apex” of the world’s Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN), a new buzzword meaning the patchwork of partial and emerging regional financial mechanisms intended to act in crisis. Given the only one to have ever dispersed money is the European Stability Mechanism for the Eurozone, and that this has not exactly always gone swimmingly, it sounds more like a fancy term for reiterating that the IMF remains the ultimate backstop but others also need to step up.

Civil society has long called for the UN to have primacy in coordinating the needed discussions over tax reform, decrying the fact that the OeCD ‘rich countries’ club’ would consult but not involve developing countries in designing new tax rules. Ostensibly this appears an opening towards the involvement of developing countries in writing tax rules, rather than just implementing them. However the smart money suggests the real winner may be the Fund, who’s Fiscal Affairs Department has been vying to usurp the OECD’s central role for some time. This rather brings into question the focus – or more precisely lack of it – on the Financing for Development (FfD) follow-up process kicking off in New York at the UN the day immediately following the spring meetings.

Last spring’s big story, the Bank’s mess over resettlement, was still bubbling on the side-lines, including via behind the scenes follow up conversations between CSOs and Bank management, where CSOs gave the Bank a sharp warning: that it get to the bottom of the problem rather than engaging in another PR exercise. On the more official side the Bank’s accountability mechanism, the Inspection Panel, made its mark with the launch of the first report in a new series on “emerging lessons”, precisely on involuntary resettlement. Let’s hope the Bank pays attention, not least because the Bank in collaboration with other MDBs continues their big push for big infrastructure, which will no doubt lead to involuntary resettlement in many cases.

Linked to this is another major theme of this year, the cooperation of the MDBs. This year it was not only the Bank and the Fund holding court in Washington DC – all the major MDBs were there, including the ‘new kids on the block’, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) New Development Bank (NDB). The NDB met on the side-lines to sign off its first four projects and the AIIB signed a MoU with the Bank to cooperate on projects. And finally, all the leaders lined up in matching grey suits for the inaugural Global infrastructure Forum, and were joined by the chairs of the G24, G20 and the UN’s general secretary. It all seemed very cordial, but let’s see whether the friendships remain as in particular the AIIB is expected to sharpen its teeth in the next few years.

For the past few years, the annual and spring meetings have been dominated by discussion about the World Bank’s environmental and social safeguards review, and while the public consultation period is now officially over, CSOs remain concerned and there are a fair few issues to resolve at Bank board level, too.

Climate change also featured on the sidelines. Despite the new Bank climate change action plan being launched only the week before the meetings, little was made of it on the official or CSO agenda, perhaps because the Bank seem certain that it will play a key role in implementing the UNFCCC Paris Agreement. But CSOs were wondering what will happen with climate finance – will the bulk of the money go through the UN’s Green Climate Fund (as the G20 seemed to indicate) or the MDB-led Climate Investment Funds (CIFs – which the G24

FoCus story

IMF Spring Meeting

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seemed to indicate)? And what happened with the CIFs’ so called ‘sunset clause’, which is supposed to kick in just about now – well, no one seems to know. Meanwhile, yet another report outlining the Bank’s continued investment in fossil fuels was released.

The IMF’s recent expansion into uncharted territory, through publication of research and inclusion of issues such as income inequality, gender, and climate finance in its surveillance pilots gained a growing amount of interest at the spring meetings. A high-level seminar including David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF, titled ‘Getting down to business: Women, work and the economy’, made the macro-critical case for gender equality and came to the consensus that we have to “move faster and push the envelope” on gender equality, including at the IMF. Whether that means the surveillance pilots will graduate to lending facilities and technical assistance and approach gender equality in a more coherent way remains to be seen. CsOs are certainly interested in the answer, as was evident from questions asked of the IMF during the civil society forum event ‘IFIs and gender equality; missing the bigger picture?’

The World Bank on the other hand arranged yet another opportunity for Caren Grown, senior director of the Bank’s gender department, to present the outlines of its gender strategy 2016-2023, launched in December. We heard the now familiar mantra on how the private sector is a key partner for implementation and why gender mainstreaming does not work. When pushed on how implementation plans are going to be systematic, accountable and transparent, Grown explained that her department is not the Bank’s ‘gender police’ and that management is accountable for its implementation, raising questions about the degree to which the gender department and its strategy will be able to influence the behaviour of an institution focused on being a competitive lender.

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FoCus story

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FoCus story

Phase of Structural Changes Underway: Finance Minister at CII – Asia Society Event in New YorkCompared to the situation two years back and in the current global context, India is doing a lot better on all fronts, especially on the key economic parameters, however, there is scope to do better, said Mr Arun Jaitley, Minister of Finance, Corporate Affairs and Information & Broadcasting, Government of India, speaking at the Conference on “Make in India: The New Deal” in New York, organized by CII and the Asia Society Policy Institute.

referring to the spate of reforms happening in india, the Finance Minister said that structural changes are underway in India, which would place the economy and the country in a stronger footing as one of the leading economies of the world. india has moved from being the state of policy paralysis to the economic bright spot of the world, Mr Jaitley said.

He referred in particular to key reforms including opening up FDI in multiple sectors; reduction in the corporate tax rate, movement on Gst, lowering of interest rates as well as process reforms with an emphasis on ease of doing business that can help decrease transaction costs. Huge resource allocation in infrastructure development particularly for national highways, roads, railway stations, airports and seaports will also help unleash economic activity in these capital intensive sectors. In addition, the renewed emphasis on infrastructure development in rural areas, rationalization of government support subsidies, and so forth will further help reduce stresses in the economic fundamentals in the country.

Ultimately, all these initiatives are geared towards helping the Indian economy focus on value added manufacturing which is at the heart of ‘Make in India’.

Mr Jaitley also pointed out that for the first time, the discourse about reforms is changing in India with a larger constituency being in support rather than against. In addition, factors such as constructive competition amongst states is a very positive factor that is fueling interest from both domestic and private enterprises.

Speaking earlier in the session, Mr Shaktikanta Das, Secretary, Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance pointed out that India was becoming more competitive – not owing to labour cost arbitrage but owing to lower costs of capital, lower taxes, lower logistics costs, etc.

Mr Arun Kumar Singh, Indian Ambassador to the US, spoke about the fact that economic security and strategic partnership have become integral part of the bilateral relationship between India and the US. He also highlighted the US investments have been to the tune of USD 28 billion and likewise Indian companies have invested USD 15 billion in the us and created over a hundred thousand jobs.

The event was co-chaired by Mr Kevin Rudd, President, Asia Society Policy Institute and Dr Naushad Forbes, President, CII.

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Continued Reforms to Keep India on Rapid Growth Track

ADB

India’s economy will see a slight dip in growth in FY2016 (fiscal year to 31 March 2017) following FY2015’s growth expansion. The economy will again accelerate in FY2017 as the benefits of banking sector reforms and an expected pickup in private investment begin to flow, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2016, ADB projects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 7.4% in FY2016, slightly below the FY2015 estimate of 7.6%. In FY2017 growth is forecast to reach 7.8%. ADO is ADB’s flagship annual economic publication.

In FY2015, a pickup in manufacturing, private consumption, and capital expenditure by the government helped offset a double-digit decline in exports. imports contracted largely due to a sharply lower oil bill, while inflation remained broadly subdued on the back of lower global commodity

prices, although there was a pickup in food prices in the second half. Measures to encourage more foreign direct investment resulted in a dramatic surge in investment. Ongoing efforts to curb spending and increased tax revenues saw the government achieve its budget deficit reduction target.

For FY2016, the still weak global economy will continue to weigh on exports, particularly India’s refined petroleum products, offsetting a further pickup in domestic consumption, due in part to an impending salary hike for government employees. Public investment, though, will remain strong as the government taps savings from lower oil costs to boost spending. In FY2017, strengthened public banks and corporate deleveraging will result in an uptick in bank credit and boost private spending, including on infrastructure.

After 2 years of decline, consumer inflation is likely to accelerate, fueled by the salary hike for civil servants and a mild pickup in global oil prices, with inflation expected to average 5.4% in FY2016, rising to 5.8% in FY2017. The government is expected to maintain its ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts, with the deficit cut to 3.5% of GDP in FY2016, supported by tax revenue growth and asset sales. At the same time, given stresses on the rural economy following two consecutive weak monsoons, the government will step up social sector spending in its FY2016 budget and increase allocations for road, power, and rail infrastructure.

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to collaborate on supporting India’s ambitious expansion plans for clean energy infrastructure.

ADB is currently financing the development of power evacuation infrastructure for solar parks in Gujarat and Rajasthan in India. The Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India, has requested ADB to provide financing up to $500 million each to support rooftop solar, and expansion of the transmission network to connect solar parks in multiple states under the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) solar park program. Under the terms of the MoU, USAID will align components of their technical assistance with ADB’s current and planned investments in renewable energy.

USAID, through its Partnership to Advance Clean Energy Deployment (PACE-D) Program, will work with ADB to assist MNRE and select states in the design and development of public private partnership (PPP) investment models for solar parks. Future technical assistance will focus on bringing innovation to the grid integration of power from areas of concentrated renewable energy generation, such as at solar parks. The specific frameworks for technical assistance are being established in coordination with MNRE.

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ADB, USAID to Collaborate on Developing Clean Energy Infrastructure in India

ADB

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The International Trade Centre (ITC) is to carry out a large-scale business survey to document experiences of Nepali exporters facing non-tariff measures (NTMs). ITC is also to develop four national-level sector export strategies (SES) for the Government of Nepal. The two initiatives are being implemented following an official request from the Ministry of Commerce and the recent review of the Nepal Trade Integration Strategy (NTIS) 2015.

The two initiatives were launched on 17 March at a stakeholder meeting at the Ministry of Commerce, which included representatives from several ministries and government agencies, trade support institutions, the private sector and development partners.

the business survey on NtMs will capture procedural and regulatory barriers to trade that exporters experience in partner countries, in transit or in Nepal. It will be implemented in partnership with the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) and will be based on the established ITC methodology for NTM surveys that has been applied in more than 60 developing and developed countries. More than 600 interviews will be carried out between March and June by a team of 15 interviewers from the Kathmandu University School of Management (KUSOM). All the interviewers have received extensive training by ITC.

Interviews will target companies in all export sectors across the different districts in Nepal, with a special focus on the products covered by the SES and priority products identified in the NTIS. The collected data will allow for a detailed analysis by product and partner country, as well as of private-sector concerns with trade regulations. The survey results will serve as a basis for stakeholder consultations, which will identify recommendations for specific interventions in affected sectors and will feed into the SES development process.

The SES will be developed in parallel to and be aligned with the NTM Survey. A specific focus of the SES will be on the coffee, tea, large cardamom and handmade paper sectors. The SES design process will produce a set of four endorsed, coherent and comprehensive documents that will serve as action-oriented blueprints for enhancing trade performance in each sector.

The design phase will follow ITC’s recognized strategy design process and methodology, which includes a thorough and participative diagnostic of each sector’s performance, main markets and competitors over the past five years as well as highlight opportunities and strategic implications for the coming five years.

The two initiatives are based on full country ownership and involve in-depth consultations with partners in identifying challenges and developing solutions. This includes identifying supply-side constraints and opportunities for value addition, diversification and investment specific to each sector. Each SES will also link trade-specific issues to broader developmental dimensions, such as each sector's potential impact on poverty reduction, employment generation and sustainable development.

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ITC to survey non-tariff measures in Nepal and develop sector export strategies

InternAtIonAl trADe Centre

New initiatives aim to help businesses overcome barriers to spur economic growth and sustainable development

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Six months into office, African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesina looks back on his accomplishments and shares his vision for the Bank and for Africa over the next decade.

In a 10-minute video, the President describes his vision for a better integrated Africa, with a wider market where people can travel everywhere without restriction, with better infrastructure linking the countries, in terms of air travel, rail and water navigation facilities to be able to link our markets. “I see in 10 years an Africa that would be able to feed itself, that is able to take advantage of all the resources it has. A more competitive Africa on the global the market. In 10 years, I expect to see an Africa that is totally lit up, that has universal access to electricity, an Africa that is not in darkness.

“That is what 10 years would look like for me,” he said.

During his first six months in office, the Bank has been engaged in trying to form global alliances around these five development priorities, Adesina said. The AfDB played a key role at the UN climate talks in Paris (COP21) in December, bringing together African leaders and supporting the African Group of Negotiators, who pushed for a climate agreement that was in the interest of Africa. At COP21, the AfDB and partners launched the African Renewable Energy Initiative (AREI), which aims to provide 300 gigawatts of electricity across Africa by 2030.

At the Bank’s High-Level Conference on Agriculture in Dakar in October, the Bank invited Ministers of Finance and development partners to look at agriculture as a business, a viable source of employment for youth, particularly in rural areas, and a path to food security. The conference also announced a range of initiatives aimed at raising agricultural productivity across the continent.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos 2016, the AfDB launched a Transformative Partnership on Energy for Africa with the participation of global CEOs, and partners, including the United States Government’s Power Africa initiative, UK Government and the United Nations, to mobilize public- and private-sector financing.

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6 months into office, President Adesina shares his vision for the Bank and for Africa

AfDB

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Bridges Key to Prosperity in Transitioning Asia-Pacific

APeC

Seismic shifts in economic and social conditions in the Asia-Pacific compounded by uncertainty in the world economy are contributing to unease about the future and raising scrutiny of globalization. But greater interconnectivity of people and markets, not less, is needed to mitigate emerging challenges to regional growth and human development, according to APEC Secretariat Executive Director Dr Alan Bollard.

The outlook for transitioning Asia-Pacific economies and their policy regimes was the focus of keynote remarks by Dr Bollard during a regional business forum that just concluded in Bangkok. He noted that sustained efforts in APEC to foster more open, integrated member economies could help to boost their ebbing trade while positioning them to tackle mounting structural impediments to productivity and social well-being.

The 21 APEC economies are forecast to grow 3.4 per cent in 2016, the same as world GDP growth, the APEC Policy Support Unit reports. This is up from 3.1 per cent growth in APEC in 2015, which was undermined by a contraction in regional trade. Keeping trade and investment barriers in check and taking next steps to enable more people and businesses to take advantage will be an important determinant of future prosperity.

APEC economies are pursuing new targets to improve the ease of doing business in the region, with focus on reducing the time it takes to start a business, obtaining financing and permits, and trading across borders. They are also deepening policy collaboration to cut red tape at immigration and customs checkpoints as well as harmonize their industry regulations and standards. The aim is to make them simpler for businesses to navigate and incorporate best practices for ensuring food safety, clean and efficient energy use, and personal data privacy, among other sustainability goals.

At the same time, APEC economies are ramping up information sharing and technical assistance to facilitate trade agreements that go beyond the reduction of tariffs alone to address emerging issues such as hurdles to innovation and digital development. Parallel emphasis is on opening cross-border education and career development opportunities in coordination with the private sector. They include new scholarships and internships, skills training and certification programs to build compatible labor forces and improve living standards in the region.

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APeC

Living standards have improved across the 21 APEC member economies on the back of trade-driven economic and social development, according to a new report. But further progress in the world’s most populous region will hinge on efforts to compensate for ebbing trade growth.

The APEC Policy Support Unit report points to gains in health, education and economic opportunities in APEC economies over the last quarter century, facilitated by their market integration and lowering of barriers to cross-border movement of people, trade and investment.

The report provides an analysis of the UNDP’s Human Development Index which measures people’s health and lifespans, knowledge levels, and standards of living in economies globally. It reveals improvements in all APEC economies which account for 3 billion people or 40 per cent of the world’s population.

APEC economies attained an average score of 0.80 in the latest Human Development Index, released in 2015, out of a maximum of 1 and minimum of 0. This is up from 0.69 in 1990—the year after they came together to form APEC to boost regional growth and prosperity via greater interconnectivity. By contrast, the average score for the world was 0.60 in 1990 and 0.71 in the Human Development Index unveiled last year.

However, the region’s multi-year contraction in trade, undermined by continued uncertainty in the global economy, presents risks to continued progress in improving living standards.

New measures will be taken forward when Trade Ministers from APEC economies convene on 17-18 May in Arequipa, Peru. They will consider policy implementation work advanced there during preceding meetings of APEC Senior Officials and technical working groups from 5-15 May.

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Trade Raises Living Standards in APEC Region: Report

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Helping India reach its Energy Goals

The Indian government has set an ambitious target: to provide electricity 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for the entire country in the next few years. Today, some 300 million people, or about 25 percent of the population, have no power.

To achieve this goal, India will need to substantially increase its energy generation from a diversity of sources, including renewable energy—solar and wind projects are particularly attractive as they have short construction periods and can provide an electricity boost relatively quickly.

The country expects to expand its clean energy capacity from about 37 gigawatts currently to 175 GW by 2022, including through major increases in solar and wind generation. This will entail an estimated $200 billion in investment.

Getting to that figure will require significant input from private sector developers and investors—which is where iFC comes in.

IFC was one of the earliest international financiers of wind and solar projects in India, starting in 2009, when the country had minimal renewable energy capacity. Our main goal at the time was to show that clean energy projects were viable and could be scaled up.

Less than a decade later, IFC’s portfolio in Indian wind and solar power exceeds $700 million and includes 3 GW of solar and wind—about 10 percent of the country’s installed renewable energy capacity.

Renewable energy represents an increasingly large share of IFC’s power investments. Over the past five years, we have invested in more than 200 renewable energy projects around the world, supporting about 8 GW of hydropower, 4 GW of wind power, and 2 GW of solar power for emerging markets.

IFC is well placed to help India mobilize funding for renewables energy, based on our presence and knowledge of the market and relationships with both government stakeholders and foreign investors. IFC offers long-term, fixed-rate rupee debt instruments and, in August, IFC Treasury issued a five-year green Masala bond on the London Stock Exchange, the first green bond issued in the offshore rupee markets.

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IFC

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An estimated three out of four jobs that make up the global workforce are either heavily or moderately dependent on water. This means that water shortages and problems of access to water and sanitation could limit economic growth and job creation in the coming decades, according to a UN report. The 2016 edition of the United Nations World Water Development Report, Water and Jobs, also notes that half of the world's workers - 1.5 billion people - are employed in eight water and natural resource - dependent industries.

“Water and jobs are inextricably linked on various levels, whether we look at them from an economic, environmental or social perspective. This edition of the World Water Development Report breaks new ground by addressing the pervasive relationship between water and jobs to an extent not yet seen in any other report”, said the Director-General of UNESCO, Irina Bokova.

launched on world water Day, and in the context of the 2030 agenda for sustainable Development, the report demonstrates the key role water will play in the transition to a green economy.

“This analysis highlights the fact that water is work – it requires workers for its safe management and at the same time it can create work and improve conditions. If the 2030 Agenda is to be a success and we are to build together a sustainable future, we must ensure that work in water is decent and that the water we all rely on is safe,” said Director-General of the ilO and Chair of uN-water, Guy ryder.

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Water drives job creation and economic growth, says new UN report

Ilo

An estimated three out of four jobs that make up the global workforce are either heavily or moderately dependent on water. This means that water shortages and problems of access to water and sanitation could limit economic growth and job creation in the coming decades, according to a UN report.

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G20 / B20

G20 Sherpa meets B20 representatives

B20 Special Workshop at Boao

On March 9, 2016, Mr Li Baodong, Chinese Group of 20 (G20) Sherpa and Vice Foreign Minister, met with Mr Yin Zonghua, Vice Chairman of Business 20 (B20) 2016 Host Committee and China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, and chairs and co-chairs of B20 working groups.

Mr Li exchanged views with B20 representatives on how to reinforce B20's role in the G20 Hangzhou Summit preparatory work. He expressed appreciation for the work of B20 as a major G20 engagement group, and requested B20 to reach out to the international business community for more advice contributing to a successful Hangzhou Summit and strong, sustainable and balanced growth of global economy. The B20 representatives reaffirmed their strong will to pool wisdom of business people both at home and abroad, in order to propel the Chinese presidency towards a fruitful Summit.

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The B20 2016 Host Committee held a Special Workshop on the sidelines of the annual conference of the Boao Forum for Asia on March 23, bringing together some 140 officials, businesspeople and experts from across the world. B20 China Sherpa Yu Ping introduced B20 China’s vision and mission, latest developments, achievements and plans for major events.

Chinese Vice-Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen and Indonesian Trade Minister Thomas Lembong were invited to address the Workshop on topics such as the roles of the B20 and G20, and trade and investment; afterwards they heard opinions and advice from the business community. Other speakers included James Chang, managing partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers China Financial Service Consulting; David Jin, senior partner and managing director at Boston Consulting Group (BCG); Jack Ma, executive chairman of Alibaba Group Holdings; Hans-Paul Bürkner, chairman at BCG; and Dan Starta, managing partner at A.T. Kearney, Greater China. They introduced the framework, work mechanisms and latest policy recommendation developments on behalf of B20’s five taskforces –Financing Growth, Trade and Investment, SME Development, Infrastructure and Employment.

Also present at the meeting were representatives from the international businesses community including China Datang Corp, TCL Corp, Trina Solar, Giti Group, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Uber, and the International Chamber of Commerce. They discussed policy recommendations and made additional suggestions. Representatives from the academic world, including Eric Grimson, former Chancellor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Amory Lovins, co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, gave advice on policy recommendations with regard to their own fields.

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