Multidimensional Poverty and Inequality in the Arab Region · 2019. 6. 28. · Multidimensional...
Transcript of Multidimensional Poverty and Inequality in the Arab Region · 2019. 6. 28. · Multidimensional...
Multidimensional Poverty and Inequality in the Arab Region
Bilal Al-Kiswani (Ph.D.)
Economic Development and Integration Division
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Outline
Poverty and Inequality
Benefit Incidence of Social Protection
Way forward
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SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere
Targets:
1.1 By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day
1.2 By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions
1.3 Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable
1.4 By 2030, ensure that all men and women, in particular the poor and the vulnerable, have equal rights to economic resources, as well as access to basic services, ownership and control over land and other forms of property, inheritance, natural resources, appropriate new technology and financial services, including microfinance
1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters
1.A Ensure significant mobilization of resources from a variety of sources, including through enhanced development cooperation, in order to provide adequate and predictable means for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, to implement programmes and policies to end poverty in all its dimensions
1.B Create sound policy frameworks at the national, regional and international levels, based on pro-poor and gender-sensitive development strategies, to support accelerated investment in poverty eradication actions
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Multidimensional Poverty Situation (1)
Arab Multidimensional Poverty Report (LAS, ESCWA, OPHI, UNICEF 2017) put forward an index tailored for the Arab Region to measure multidimensional poverty
40.6% of households are poor and 13.4% live in acute poverty
JordanTunisia
Algeria
EgyptIraq
Morocco
Comoros
Yemen
SudanMauritania
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 20 40 60 80 100
Incid
en
ce
of A
cu
te P
ove
rty (
%)
Incidence of Poverty (%)
Cluster 3
Cluster 2
Cluster 1
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Multidimensional Poverty (2)
High prevalence of acute poverty in LDCs, high prevalence of vulnerability in MICs, and wide disparities and disadvantage for rural areas, households whose head has no education, and families in the bottom wealth quintile
0.2 1.4
20.95.5 5.3
11.6
49.7
17.51.8
6.3
21.6
7.619.2
29.6
23.1
22.6
5.6
16.2
20.4
11.7
27.0
31.0
15.8
25.292.4
76.2
37.0
75.2
48.6
27.8
11.4
34.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cluster 1Cluster 2Cluster 3RegionalAverage
Cluster1 Cluster2 Cluster3 RegionalAverage
Non-PoorVulnerable to poverty (deprivation score 20-33.32%)Poor excluding the severly poor (Deprivation score 33.3-50%)Severly Poor (deprivation score >50%)
Acute Poverty Poverty
0
20
40
60
80
Tota
lR
ura
lU
rban
FHH
MH
HN
o e
du
cati
on
Hig
hes
t ed
uca
tio
nB
ott
om
qu
inti
leTo
p q
uin
tile
Ho
use
ho
ld s
ize
8+
Ho
use
ho
ld s
ize
14
Tota
lR
ura
lU
rban
FHH
MH
HN
o e
du
cati
on
Hig
hes
t ed
uca
tio
nB
ott
om
qu
inti
leTo
p q
uin
tile
Ho
use
ho
ld s
ize
8+
Ho
use
ho
ld s
ize
14
Poverty Acute Poverty
Inci
den
ce o
f p
ove
rty
(%)
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Multidimensional Poverty (2)
Dimension contribution
64.352.7 52.2
59.3 62.2
47.838.8 37.8 38.0 38.2
15.7
15.6 13.6
24.4 15.9
13.8
17.0 19.7 15.0 15.8
19.9
31.8 34.2
16.321.9
38.444.3 42.5 47.0 46.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Jo
rdan
Tu
nis
ia
Alg
eri
a
Egyp
t
Ira
q
Mo
rocco
Com
oro
s
Yem
en
Sud
an
Ma
urita
nia
Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3
Education Health Living Standards
Completion Rates by wealth
Indicator Years of Education: Gaps between
rural and urban areas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006 2014 2002 2012 2000 2014 2011 2002 2012 2000 2011 2000 2012 2013 2000 2014 2007 2015
Palestine Jordan Egypt Tunisia Algeria Iraq Comoros Yemen Sudan Mauritania
Ave
rage
yea
rs o
f sc
ho
olin
g
Rural Urban Palestinian camp National average
Page 9
Indicator Years of Education: Gaps between
educated and non-educated head of households
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2002 2012 2006 2014 2002 2012 2000 2014 2000 2012 2000 2011 2000 2014
JOR PSE DZA EGY COM IRQ SDN
Ratio
of E
du
cate
d/
no
n-e
du
cate
d H
oH
HY
ears
of
Ed
ucati
on
Education HoH (12 Years or more) Education of Head of household (none) Ratio Secondary/No Education
Page 10
Indicator Years of Education: Gaps by wealth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006 2014 2002 2012 2000 2014 2011 2000 2011 2000 2012 2013 2000 2014 2007 2015
Palestine Jordan Egypt Tunisia Iraq Comoros Yemen Sudan Mauritania
Ave
rage
yea
rs o
f sc
ho
olin
g
Poorest Poor Middle Rich Richest National average
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Egypt: Benefit Incidence of Energy Subsidies
Consumption subsidies represent a
particularly heavy fiscal burden, reaching 10% of GDP in
Egypt (Ministry of Finance, 2012). Energy subsidies which
account for 6.2% of GDP has very low benefit incidence to
the poor…
MoF, PEP, and
UNICEF (2014)
Iraq: Benefit Incidence of Cash Transfer
• social protection transfers provide up to one third of the recipient poor households incomes;
• Social protection transfers are associated with lower risk to child poverty and deprivation in health, nutrition, and water and sanitation; the effect is higher in Governorates with better services;
• Though only 1 in 4 of the recipients of Social Safety Net were poor;
• Social transfers are implemented in isolation from social services (conceptually and programmatically);
99.4
10.619.5
98.6
7.6
26.720.0
25.815.3
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
PDS FoodRations
Cash Transfers Public Pensions
Benefit Incidence of Social Transfers 2012 (%)
% poor receiving
% non poor receiving
% of recipients who are poor
Multidimensional Poverty
Columbia
Multidimensional Poverty
Columbia
• National Development Plan
• Social Protection Programs
• Targeting Strategy
• Social Spending
• Monitoring and Accountability
15
Source: Multidimensional Poverty Index – Applications Colombia. Presentation to the FirstMultidimensional Poverty Peer Network meeting by Bruce Mac Master, Director of the Department for SocialProsperity. Oxford, June 2013
Dashboard based on a stoplight system –
sector specific goals
Dimensions
and weights
indicators
Educational
achievement
Literacy School
attendance
School
lag
Access to
childcare
services
Children
not
working
No one in
long-term
unemploy.
Formal
employment
Health
insurance
Access to
healthcare
Adequate
floors
Person 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 7
Person 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Person 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5
Person 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Person 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 10
…… ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..….. …..
Total
number
of depri-
vations
…..…..
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0
1 1 0 1
Access to
water
source
Adequate
elimination of
sewer waste
Adequate
external
walls
No critical
overcrowding
0 0 0 0
Deprivation matrix Year 0Educational conditions
of household (20%)Children and youth condition (20%) Employment (20%) Health (20%) Access to public utilities and household conditions (20%)
Dimensions
and weights
indicators
Educational
achievement
Literacy School
attendance
School
lag
Access to
childcare
services
Children
not
working
No one in
long-term
unemploy.
Formal
employment
Health
insurance
Access to
healthcare
Adequate
floors
Person 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 6
Person 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Person 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 5
Person 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
Person 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 9
…… ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..….. ….. …..
Total
number
of depri-
vations
…..
0 1 0 0
0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0
1 1 0 1
Access to
water
source
Adequate
elimination of
sewer waste
Adequate
external
walls
No critical
overcrowding
0 0 0 0
Deprivation matrix Year 1 Educational conditions
of household (20%)Children and youth condition (20%) Employment (20%) Health (20%) Access to public utilities and household conditions (20%)
1. Identify social
investment by
sector
2. Simulate those investments
in survey following sector-
specific focalization rules
3. Generate new
deprivation matrix
simulating the changes
Simulations on microdata - Colombia
It could be done the other way around to estimate the cost of
achieving specific SDGs
THANK YOU
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Education
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Health
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Living Conditions
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Living Conditions