Multi Hypothesis Design Studio
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![Page 1: Multi Hypothesis Design Studio](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052321/55491a3ab4c90558458c5f3a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
@cyetain
http://xkcd.com/
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@cyetain
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@cyetain
Abductionnot just for
Aliens
@cyetain
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@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCE
INDUCE
Predictive
Probable
Plausible
The Way
Computers "Think"
The Way
Humans Think
Binary
Probability
Analogue
Justifiable
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@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCE
INDUCE
Experiences Hypothesises
ExpectedOutcomes
If Coherent
If Expected Outcomes Match Reality
EffectiveMatch
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@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCEINDUCE
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@cyetain
ABDUCE
DEDUCEINDUCE
SURPRISE!!!
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@cyetain
The Principle of Optimum Failure Rate
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
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@cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Greater Asserted Information
Greater Asserted Information
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@cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Greater Asserted Information
Greater Asserted Information
Pretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting Ideas
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@cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Greater Asserted Information
Greater Asserted Information
Pretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting Ideas
Uncomfortable
Confident
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@cyetain
Experience of Failure
Num
ber
of S
ampl
esThe Competency Trap
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@cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
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@cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Pretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting IdeasHidden
RiskHidden Value
The Line of SURPRISE!
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@cyetain
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Pretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting IdeasHidden
RiskHidden Value
1
2
3
During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas
Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to reduce risk of Failure Demand
After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure
2 3
1
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@cyetain
Just Say No to Xenophobia
Utilize Abduction&
Scientific Method
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@cyetain
Multi-Hypothesis Research
!=
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@cyetain
BRAINSTORM
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@cyetain
TheoriesOpinions
Hypothesizes
The Facts and Just the Facts
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@cyetain
TheoriesOpinions
Hypothesizes
ConstraintsCriteria
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@cyetain
TheoriesOpinions
Hypothesizes
QuestionFacts
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@cyetain
TheoriesOpinions
Hypothesizes Request More Information
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@cyetain
How Would I Validate my
understanding of this
problem?How Would I
solve this
Problem?
•Based on your experiences, what would you do to solve this problem? This is your Hypothesis.•Identify What Needs to Be True if your Hypothesis is true.•Assert, Presume, Assume Truth•Imagine Experiments that would justify the Assumptions
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@cyetain
I Assert that this I know this
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Pretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting Ideas
I Presume Somebody knows this
I am going to Assume
this is true for my
Hypothesis to be true
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
nPretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting Ideas
0% 100%
Probability of Failure
50%
Pote
ntia
l Inf
orm
atio
n
Pretty Sure
theory is wrong
Pretty Sure
theory is right
Interesting Ideas
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@cyetain
This is my Hypothesis,
Assumptions and
Experiments
ChallengeAssumptions & Experiments
Rotate Pairs 2-3 TimesAllow Time for Revision Between Rounds
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@cyetain
This is my Hypothesis,
Assumptions and
Experiments
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@cyetain
Multiple Smaller Experimentsagainst
Multiple Abductive Hypotheses
instead of
Single Large Experimentagainst
Single Hypotheses