Multi-criteria Assessment for the Optimization of Lean ... J. and Guo, J.: Survey of worldwide pico-...
Transcript of Multi-criteria Assessment for the Optimization of Lean ... J. and Guo, J.: Survey of worldwide pico-...
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Multi-criteria Assessment for the Optimization
of Lean Satellite Programs
Pauline FAURE, Atomu TANAKA, Mengu CHO, HORYU-IV Team
Kyushu Institute of Technology
Laboratory of Spacecraft Environment Interaction Engineering
1st IAA Latin American Symposium on Small Satellites
-Advanced Technologies and Distributed Systems –
March 7th – 10th 2017
Ministry of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation, Palermo, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Session on Small Satellites Worldwide: Achievements and Trends
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
1st IAA Latin American
Symposium on Small Satellites
March 7th - 10th 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina 2
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
1st IAA Latin American
Symposium on Small Satellites
March 7th - 10th 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina 3
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INTRODUCTION
Lean satellite programs essence
Non-traditional and risk-taking development approach
Development drivers: fast delivery, low cost, value
EgyptSat1, SaudiSat3
Credit: NARSS
Thai-Paht (Thailand)
Credit: SSTL
BADR1 (Pakistan)
Credit: SUPARCO
New comers, universities
Dove2 (U.S.)
Credit: Planet Labs Inc.
SDS series (Japan)
Credit: JAXA
CHEOPS (CH, ESA)
Credit: ESA
Private sector, space agencies
Value
Low cost
Fast delivery
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INTRODUCTION
Lean satellite programs essence
Non-traditional and risk-taking development approach
Development drivers: fast delivery, low cost, value
1st IAA Latin American
Symposium on Small Satellites
March 7th - 10th 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina
LEAN SATELLITE
Satellite that utilizes non-traditional, risk-taking development and management
approaches with the aim to provide value of some kind to the customer at low
cost and without taking much time to realize the satellite mission
IAA Study Group 4.18 Members, IAA Study on Definition and Requirements of Small Satellites Seeking Low-Cost and Fast-Delivery, Version 13, June 2016
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INTRODUCTION
Problems
Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality
Database
1394 satellites (all categories included) launched between Jan. 1990 and Oct. 2008
~97.4% ~98.6% ~98.2%
Dubos, G.F., Castet, J-F. and Saleh, J.H.: Statistical Reliability Analysis of Satellites by Mass Category: Does Spacecraft Size Matter?, Acta Astronautica 67, 2010, pp. 584-595
*Reliability = probability of non failure
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INTRODUCTION
Problems
Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality
Database
178 CubeSats launched until June 30, 2014
Langer, M. and Bouwmeester: Reliability of CubeSats – Statistical data, developers’ beliefs and the way forward, Proc. of the 30th Annual AIAA/USU Conf. on Small Satellites
*Reliability = probability of non failure
~63%
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INTRODUCTION
Bouwmeester, J. and Guo, J.: Survey of worldwide pico- and nanosatellite missions, distributions and subsystem technology, Acta Astronautica 67, 2010, pp. 854-862
Database
94 satellites (pico- and nano-satellite categories) launched until July 30, 2009
Problems
Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality
Most of non-traditional satellites fail to achieve full mission success
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INTRODUCTION
Problems
Non-traditional satellites present the highest rate of infant mortality
Most of non-traditional satellites fail to achieve full mission success
Testing prior to launch is insufficient
No value provided to the customer
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How to improve lean satellite programs?
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INTRODUCTION
Plan for improvement: PI2 action plan
Prevent infant mortality
Identify culprit sub-systems
Improve testing strategy
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Buenos Aires, Argentina 10
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
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RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
Study the relation between testing time vs. reliability vs. project schedule vs. cost
Demonstrate lean satellites reliability, i.e. value, improves through testing
Serve as guidance to lean satellite programs developers
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
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March 7th - 10th 2017
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METHODOLOGY
First and foremost, some vocabulary
Failure: any mistake, malfunction, anomaly, or glitch in the hardware or software (misplaced hole, power line inversion, component short-circuit, etc…)
Engineering model 1 (EM1): assembly and test of the bus sub-systems only (no payload)
Engineering model 2 (EM2): assembly and test of the bus and payload sub-systems + fit check between structural elements and electronic boards
Flight model (FM): same as EM2 + no major design or hardware modifications allowed
Reliability: probability of non-failure at a certain given time
Testing: include assembly, integration, and testing processes
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METHODOLOGY
Experimental data collection methodology
Failures number, discovery time, and type of failures recorded
General time assumption: testing from Monday through Friday, 8h/day
Data collection
period
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METHODOLOGY
Simulation algorithm steps
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1) Random number
generation
Decision on whether a
failure occurred or not
2) Failure modes
determination
Estimation of failure
influence on testing time
3) Failure criticality level
determination
Estimation of failure
reparation on project schedule
r(t): failure rate
4) Reliability after launch
calculation based on 1000 runs
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Failure discovery over time
Most of failures discovered during the early stage of new testing phase
Testing to be performed for as long as 1 year
Experimental data Simulations (example)
Faure, P., Tanaka, A. and Cho, M.: Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study, Acta Astronautica (2017), DOI:
10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.030
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Failure discovery over time
Most of failures discovered during the early stage of new testing phase
Testing to be performed for as long as 1 year
Experimental data Simulations (example)
50h of testing
Discovered failures > 50%
150h of testing
Discovered failures > 2/3
Faure, P., Tanaka, A. and Cho, M.: Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study, Acta Astronautica (2017), DOI:
10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.030
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Failures taxonomy
Engineering model 1 (EM1)
Only bus sub-systems assembled and tested
No payload sub-systems tested
RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Faure, P., Tanaka, A. and Cho, M.: Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study, Acta Astronautica (2017), DOI:
10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.030
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Faure, P., Tanaka, A. and Cho, M.: Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study, Acta Astronautica (2017), DOI:
10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.030
1st IAA Latin American
Symposium on Small Satellites
March 7th - 10th 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Failures taxonomy
Engineering model 2 (EM2)
Bus and payload sub-systems assembled and tested
First time assembly of structural and electronic parts
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Faure, P., Tanaka, A. and Cho, M.: Toward lean satellites reliability improvement using HORYU-IV project as case study, Acta Astronautica (2017), DOI:
10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.12.030
1st IAA Latin American
Symposium on Small Satellites
March 7th - 10th 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Failures taxonomy
Flight model (FM)
Similar to EM2
No major design or hardware changes allowed
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Testing time vs. reliability vs. project schedule
Increase of interfaces number increases system complexity and drives
down its reliability
Optimum testing time to prevent infant mortality
Faure, P., Tanaka, A., Cho, M. and HORYU-IV Team: Study for the Optimization of Lean Satellite Programs Managerial Decision-making, Selected paper of the 67th
International Astronautical Congress (2016), to be submitted to Acta Astronautica for publication
Experimental data
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Testing time vs. reliability vs. project schedule
Optimum testing time to prevent infant mortality
Optimum testing time to ensure lean concepts of cost, time, and value
Faure, P., Tanaka, A., Cho, M. and HORYU-IV Team: Study for the Optimization of Lean Satellite Programs Managerial Decision-making, Selected paper of the 67th
International Astronautical Congress (2016), to be submitted to Acta Astronautica for publication
Simulations (1000 runs)
Qualitative results
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Testing time vs. reliability vs. project schedule
Optimum testing time to prevent infant mortality
Optimum testing time to ensure lean concepts of cost, time, and value
Faure, P., Tanaka, A., Cho, M. and HORYU-IV Team: Study for the Optimization of Lean Satellite Programs Managerial Decision-making, Selected paper of the 67th
International Astronautical Congress (2016), to be submitted to Acta Astronautica for publication
Simulations (1000 runs)
720h
(1 month)
・Ti: ×10
・Total testing time at Ti=200h: 2061h
(~12 months of testing)
・Total project time at Ti=200h: 5563h
(~32 months)
・Number of failures: ×1.7
・Reliability: ×11
Qualitative results
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Testing time vs. reliability vs. project schedule
Optimum testing time to prevent infant mortality
Optimum testing time to ensure lean concepts of cost, time, and value
Faure, P., Tanaka, A., Cho, M. and HORYU-IV Team: Study for the Optimization of Lean Satellite Programs Managerial Decision-making, Selected paper of the 67th
International Astronautical Congress (2016), to be submitted to Acta Astronautica for publication
Simulations (1000 runs)
720h
(1 month)
Qualitative results
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Buenos Aires, Argentina
・Ti: ×2.5
・Total testing time at Ti =50h: 540h
(~3 months of testing)
・Total project time at Ti=50h: 3165h
(~18 months)
・Number of failures: ×1.3
・Reliability: ×6
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Cost vs. project schedule
Hardware, software, and personnel costs taken into account
Importance of smart automation of testing
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Cost vs. project schedule
Hardware, software, and personnel costs taken into account
Importance of smart automation of testing
From Ti=20h to Ti=200h,
cost: +70%
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RESULTS and DISCUSSION
Cost vs. project schedule
Hardware, software, and personnel costs taken into account
Importance of smart automation of testing
Faure, P., Tanaka, A., Cho, M. and HORYU-IV Team: Study for the Optimization of Lean Satellite Programs Managerial Decision-making, Selected paper of the 67th
International Astronautical Congress (2016), to be submitted to Acta Astronautica for publication
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
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SUMMARY
Most of failures appear during the early stages of testing
Failures mostly driven by bus sub-systems and interfaces
Proper testing prior to launch can help preventing infant mortality
A too drastic testing time can drive drastic schedule and cost overruns
A mild testing time can greatly improve reliability after launch without impeding
program schedule or cost constraints
Overall, research results point out that there is an optimum testing time to
guaranty value to customer without impeding a considered program’s
schedule and cost requirements
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CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. Research objectives
3. Methodology
4. Results and discussion
5. Summary
6. Research outlook
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RESEARCH OUTLOOK
Research current limitations
Only one case study
Complexity of lean satellite not taken into account
Only qualitative trends established
Cannot determine optimal testing time for a considered lean satellite
Data from other lean satellite programs are needed
Not only university-based programs, but also private and
government-based programs
Not only from Japan, but all around the world
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RESEARCH OUTLOOK
Countermeasures no.1
“Failures track sheet”
Template example
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RESEARCH OUTLOOK
Countermeasures no.1
“Failures track sheet”
HORYU-IV “failures track
sheet” (FM excerpt)
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RESEARCH OUTLOOK
Countermeasures no.2
“LeanSat community” lessons learned database
For example, take inspiration from NASA lessons learned system
NASA lessons learned system:
https://llis.nasa.gov/
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Buenos Aires, Argentina 36
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RESEARCH OUTLOOK
Then, in the near future…
Based on collected data, development of an integrated
management tool (schedule, cost, reliability, others…)
Qualitative and quantitative trends projection
Specifics depending on different lean satellite approaches (university,
private, government)
“Base recipe” for successful lean satellite programs development
Etc…
1st IAA Latin American
Symposium on Small Satellites
March 7th - 10th 2017
Buenos Aires, Argentina 37
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Multi-criteria Assessment for the Optimization of Lean Satellite Programs
1st IAA Latin American Symposium on Small Satellites
-Advanced Technologies and Distributed Systems –
March 7th – 10th 2017
Ministry of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation, Palermo, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Pauline FAURE*, Atomu TANAKA, Mengu CHO*, HORYU-IV Team
*Corresponding authors contact: