Mulcair –vs- HarperAnalysis of NDP comments made on policies

Economy/Trade Comments

Economy comments / Economic Club

1. Response 1 – Source - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-may-2015-canada-and-north-america

a. Exports are down but that was driven by low oil prices. If you exclude oil then exports are up by 587. The majority of the increase is led by food processing, Transportation Equipment and Forestry. How come Mulcair does not mention this in his speech? (see Slide 13)

b. Business investment is down, but that is led by low capital spending in the Oil Sands, but no comment, why? BMO is saying they forecast spending in Q3 and Q4 - http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/forecast/ca/cdamodel.pdf

c. GDP is down – GDP is down, but if you look at MFG, Utilities and retail sales then you will see they have been strong. Yet, Mulcair does not mention these sectors, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-april-2015-canada-and-north-america

d. Mulcair quotes household spending as such I will assumed he means retail sales. The retail sales are up 1.4% from April 2014 to April 2015, but no comment, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-april-2015-canada-and-north-america

e. How come Mulcair does not mention the global economy? It seems like China and the EU are struggling, so how is that Harper’s fault? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-chinas-economy-slows-innovation-accelerates-2015-06-16. The Chinese slowdown has been happening for many months, but no comment, why? Canada and China have close 20B in combined trade, but no comment (see slide #11) http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada

f. Mulcair says little on FDI and yet FDI drives exports - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada

Economy – Mulcair Comments

• Mulcair:

• China Grow/ Moodys comments:

Economy – Mulcair Comments

• Mulcair:

• USA Growth / Scotia Bank Economics

Economy – Mulcair (Exports)

• Mulcair Comment:

• CME Comment –

Consumer Spending – Canada

• Mulcair comment/Facebook: Why is Mulcair looking at April Data?

• Comments / links (Scotia Bank)

Business Investment

• Mulcair / Comment – Source Facebook

• Comment/questions:

Economy/Green Energy• Mulcair quotes –•

• Comments/Questions• Canada already ranked 7th or 12th on green investment depending on the survey. So, what will Mulcair do differently than Harper -

http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-policy-analysis-green-technology-canadaa

• Green Technology exports 80% of their sales. Currently, there is roughly 22B in green technology revenue. (http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-june-2015-canada-and-north-America)

Economy – Mulcair (Exports)• Mulcair Comment:

• Mulcair is great at discussing federal policies, like tax rates, trade deals, etc., but says little how Ottawa will be partner with the provinces. It seems some major policies areas are hurting business • Hydro rates - Hydro Rates -

http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html or http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank or http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2015/07/09-hydro-rates-chamber-report-sudbury.aspx

• Red Tape/Regulations – Ontario is rank 28th - http://www.northernontariobusiness.com/Industry-News/mining/2014/03/Ontario-ranked-28th-among-world%E2%80%99s-friendliest-mining-jurisdictions.aspx

• R&D innovation – Mulcair makes no mention of existing programs, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/federal-government-programs-canada

Middle Class

Middle Class• I hear the same comments that Harper has killed the middle class when it is has been bad provincial policies led by various provincial

government that felt social policy at all costs is the solution to run their various budgets. Here are facts/videos on the middle class - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqLDHQ-iJU8 (is this a lie? or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOl37VcG89c (is this a lie? - http://globalnews.ca/.../tax-cuts-since-2005-net.../ (is this a lie?) or http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/taxation-policies (are my slides 8-11 wrong).

• I hear that the above information is wrong, but no one refutes that my information is wrong via providing facts that support socialism is working in Canada.

• BTW: Hiking the corporation tax to 18-22% range will add 2-8% more to cost of your iPhone, iPad, Clothes, transit passes, food, beer, wine, etc. http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-44675640. BTW – Where does Mulcair stand on Corporate tax? Oops, Mulcair cannot remember the rate: http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/ . This about month old and we still have no response on rates, why?

• NDP/Economy - http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/b-c-economy-stagnates-under-ndp-rule-report • Justin Trudeau cannot even tell you who makes up the middle class - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WHIS3w4wn4• How about childcare: http://www.iedm.org/fr/2821-quebecs-failed-child-care-model• I thought Harper is bad news, right? If so, how come Canada is one of the most admired countries in the world:

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-ranked-as-most-admired-country-in-the-world-report-1.2470040 • Canada also has done well compared to its peers across the world - http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/forecast/int/intmodel.pdf• Canada is seeing shift up the ladder in terms of income/wealth, but no comment, why?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadians-scale-the-income-ladder-with-the-best-of-them/article25533315/?click=sf_globefb

• Remind me again why we should change to either Mulcair or Trudeau government as the facts do not align with their policies!

Mulcair Middle Class• Mulcair quote

• Social Programs/Spending – So how has Harper not supported social programs

Middle Income inequality• Mulcair quote (Rabble.ca)

• Middle Class Income - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqLDHQ-iJU8• It seems Canada has done well since 2000, but no comment from Mulcair. Mulcair talks the last 25+ years, but not recent trends,

why?

Mulcair Job quality• Mulcair Comment/Windsor Star

• Questions that Mulcair ignores:• Where does Mulcair comment on the skills gaps?• Where does Mulcair comment on how automation has change how companies operate, i.e. eCommerce (online retail, EFT, etc.) or

advance manufacturing?• Where does Mulcair talk about the fact provinces like Ontario have added university spots, but never align education with the

requirement of business?

Economic Club/Jobs• Mulcair talks about job quality and youth unemployment, but again in summary. Let’s look at facts

• Ontario has increased the # of spaces for university students, but did they ever aligned those with jobs of the today and the future? http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/1493895/25691274/1416506638937/Final+Skills+Shortage+CFCM+October+2014+1.pdf?token=96ni5TihLpqbdMprvWVHVYDvJcU%3D

• Harper has provided funding for skills and university/college education via social transfers - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/provincial-transfers-and-program-spending, There is approximately $4B more for CST, but no comment. We all know the provinces control delivery of post-secondary as such why is Mulcair not call out for his statements. It seems like healthcare or other areas it can all be solved with more money, right? (See slide 3)

• If you have a bad provincial policies that drove out business, i.e. hydro rates - http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/02/26/ontarios_big_industries_plead_for_lower_hydro_rates.html or no emphasis on the skills trades then you start seeing issues with the youth.

• I do not buy his comment that 2/3 of jobs created since 2008 are part-time jobs. http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-industry-and-market-indicators-for-may-2015-canada-and-north-america. See slide 108. If you look were we are now then you will see that many new jobs are in the trades, manufacturing, construction, etc. These aforementioned jobs pay more than minimum wage – see slide 110.

• Mulcair is doing fear mongering with facts that are less than factual. It is too bad that I was not in attendance as I would have drilled him on his comments.

Mulcair / Job creation• Mulcair’s comment/Economic Club

Comment on Jobs: •Since 2010 there has been 722K full-time jobs and 118K part-time jobs created in Canada. So, 86% of the new jobs are full-time. So, where is the 80% number you quoting coming from in terms of its accuracy?•The main sector of growth are the following sectors

• Accommodation/food services approximately 98K• Healthcare approximately 249K – this ties to more money being spent on healthcare by provinces to support need for additional services • Professional jobs approximately 170K• Construction approximately 220K – does this not benefit skill trades and tied to the housing market being solid in Canada• Where are the numbers that support this calculation? • Where are the comments on FIT (

http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank. NDP wants to push for more green, right?

Program Spending

Mulcair and Seniors

• Mulcair comment – Seniors

• Comment:• How is Mulcair going to pay for these changes? CPP is payroll tax as such will Mulcair being

hiking payroll taxes?• OAS was never designed to be the only source of income• CD Howe -

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadians-are-saving-enough-for-retirement-says-c-d-howe-study-1.3100653 . It seems to me that Mulcair is trying to pander for votes without real facts. If seniors are struggling it has more to do with bad provincial policies –http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/03/26/average-ontario-hydro-bill-to-go-up-about-120-a-year.html

Veterans Affairs

• Mulcair quotes/comments –

• Comment• Mulcair’s comment are vague as he says nothing on what will be done to support vets.

• Vets in general have been treated fairly with some following through cracks. The Vets affairs continues to go through a transformation, but no comment from the NDP, why? http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/conservatives-unveil-new-benefits-for-injured-veterans-caregivers-1.2284395

•

First Nations

• Mulcair/Comment –

• Comments/Questions• Where are the comments on transparency?• Where are the comments that the education deal was struck down by AFN?• Where are the comments that some AFN do better than others when it comes to set

priorities?• Where are the comments that AFN should be looking at modernizing the Indian Act

including equalization payments between Rich and Poor Reserves?• Where are the comments on economic development deals?

Provinces • Mulcair / Quotes / Globe and Mail

• Comments and Question – • Doctor Comment -

http://www.therebel.media/canadian_doctor_the_harper_government_is_actually_making_the_right_choice_regarding_healthcare_funding or http://policyoptions.irpp.org/2014/11/15/the-myth-of-federal-health-care-cuts/

• What province is the worst for Healthcare? - http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-gets-poor-grade-in-canadian-health-report-1.2954500

• NDP seems to be to interested in upping the transfers without looking at deliver of healthcare dollars, right?•

Infrastructure • Mulcair/Quotes –

• Comments/Questions• No comment on the Build Canada or Gas Tax Fund • No comment on P3 that are over budget -

http://newsforontarioninetyninepercent.ca/ontario-auditor-general-finds-8-billion-p3-infrastructure-boondoggle/

• How about municipal reforms like compensation, OPP costing, arbitration, etc?

C-51 / Terrorism

• Mulcair/Quotes• This quotes is misleading as it says nothing on what he supports in public safety

• Comments/Questions• NDP said rights are taking away, but no one can quote any section of the bill that says rights are

removed. Here is information on C51 - http://ktvharris.com/2015/06/02/billc51-facts-myths-fears/

Canadian Forces

• Mulcair quotes/comments:

• Comments and question• Military assets in Canada are old and need to be replaced. The only comment from the

NDP is they would killed asset purchases - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32bySE5UMw4

• NDP is great at quote $3.1B boondoggle that never was as part of their arguments - http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/11/28/john-ivison-the-3-1-billion-conservative-boondoggle-that-never-was/

Corporate TaxCorporations also pay into EI and CPP along with other taxes. •Fact 1 – Pension Funds own shares in companies - http://www.cppib.com/en/public-media/news-releases/2015/CPPIB-year-end-2015.html•Fact 2 – Corporation provide capital to develop resources, manufactured products, etc. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150424/dq150424a-eng.htm or http://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/eng/canadexport/document.jsp?did=154946•Fact 3 - Social Programs - http://www.fin.gc.ca/afr-rfa/2014/afr-rfa-eng.pdf. In 2013-2014 Federal government transfer 42.4B to the provinces to support Social Services and Healthcare. Corporation direct taxation (Corporation Tax/EI/Duties) accounts for 1/3 of interprovincial transfers. So, do you still dislike corporations?) http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-44675640 •Fact 4 – Corporation hire people - http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/loblaw-expansion-plans-build-50-new-stores-renovate-100-1.2270285 or http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/irving-shipbuilding-holds-job-fair-in-fort-mcmurray-to-lure-oil-workers-east-1.3141636•Fact 5 – Canada has very competitive corporate tax rates compare to G-8, but is down on the list when it comes to OECD. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-sows-confusion-over-ndp-s-promised-corporate-tax-hike-1.3118322 or http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/09/22/the-u-s-ranks-32nd-out-of-34-oecd-countries-in-tax-code-competitiveness/•Mulcair has no understanding of tax policies, especially the impact of rates. It seems to me that Mulcair is trying to play to low informed voters as saying he is savior for middle class, right?•BTW: Canada has one the best middle class in the world, but no comment from Mulcair, why? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V7JDvyAIvk. This is rant without any real facts when it comes to the middle class. Here are links of middle class: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqLDHQ-iJU8 or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOl37VcG89c. So, are these links on Canada middle class lies? If so, then prove me wrong with actual facts that support middle class. There are issues with the middle class, but that is driven by bad provincial policies, i.e. carbon tax/pricing, health premium, hydro rates, etc.•Sources - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-44675640

Corporate Tax

•NDP Supporter, Here is simple question for you "Defend Mulcair's policies to where the private sector supports the hiking of taxes". It is simple request that to this date has not been defended with any valid links from the Chamber of Commerce or CFIB or CAPP or CME or other trade/business association. It seems to me that Mulcair is the one that is inconsistent with his comments. Right? Mulcair tells unions he hates corporate welfare, right? http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-targets-freeloader-corporations-in-speech-to-teamsters-1.2774959. •Jason Myers (CME) and others have called out Mulcair for his inconsistency with corporate tax http://www.cme-mec.ca/?lid=JCKNC-E742G-1W6JA&comaction=show&cid=HRH7K-9UE34-ACUS8 or http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/ndp-leader-mulcairs-corporate-tax-policy-needs-clarity-150026/. So, are these comments lies and if so then defend why these comments are lies. All I have seen is people say “Mulcair will look at average rates with OECD”, but little else in statement. The fact is Canada ranking overall for taxation is 23 within OECD, but Mulcair never mention this ranking, why? http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-44675640

Gun RegistryMulcair’s comment

•Earlier Comment:

•July 2015 comment

•July 2015 comment:

•What comment is right?

•Long Gun Registry • Long Gun Registry was ineffective – http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/gary-mauser-why-the-long-gun-registry-doesnt-work-and-

never-did• Crime Rate is down (

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/22/serious-crime-rate-in-canada-dropped-last-year-to-its-lowest-level-since-1969.html)

NDP Policy Team / Finance

• Mulcair looks for Bay Street Help http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/team-ndp-has-a-big-hole-to-fill/article25327652/

Comment/Rebuttal• Why would Mulcair being looking for help? Could it be that sound

financial people do not flock to the NDP?

Mulcair Platform Cost• The NDP is making the following promises

• Daycare (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mulcair-pitches-plan-for-15-a-day-child-care/article21086778/) – Cost $5B (PQ program failed, right? http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-daycare-fees-to-climb-to-20-per-day-for-highest-earning-families-1.2841994 )

• Healthcare - http://thechronicleherald.ca/canada/121141-premiers-ottawa-to-cut-health-funding-by-36b-over-10-years. – Cost $3.6

• Infrastructure – Gas Tax (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/mulcair-promises-to-give-cities-extra-cent-from-gas-tax-1.2410101) – Cost $1.5B

• OAS changes - http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/taxes/is-old-age-security-truly-unsustainable-1.1145910) – this costs does not kick in until 2023 – The rebel comment http://www.ggfl.ca/blog/publications/new-rules-for-old-age-security-and-canada-pension-plan. The annual costs could be $12B

• Other programs like R&D could add another $500M to $1B (see mulcair’s speech - http://www.ndp.ca/news/tom-mulcairs-speech-economic-club-canada)

• *** I estimated the above would cost $11B. So, how is Mulcair going to raise the money for his spending?

• The analysis is based on the annual Report - http://www.fin.gc.ca/afr-rfa/2014/index-eng.asp

• Canada’s corporate taxation (see page 11 of the annual report) which will show $35B at average rate of 15% (http://www.kpmg.com/Ca/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/TaxRates/Substantively-Enacted-Tax-Rates-General-Corporation.pdf). So, if we can estimate $1.5B on average per % rate in corporate tax. Let’s say that Mulcair increases corporate tax by 4% to bring it to 19% then he would see $6.0B.

• Mulcair could bump the GST up as an option and that would bring in $5B estimated (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/economist-wade-locke-says-hst-hike-easiest-fairest-way-to-increase-revenue-1.2975815 )

• Mulcair could cut military spending (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32bySE5UMw4)

Mulcair Platform Cost

•Income tax Splitting - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/taxation-policies or http://www.adamsandassociates.ca/latest-news/vern-krishna-income-splitting-is-fair-financial-post/.

•So, how is mulcair going to fund his platform? It seems to me tax hikes are the only way, right? The onus is on Mulcair to provide support of his plan including proper costing, especially how he said he would keep corporate tax rates competitive with OECD. Yet, Canada has some highest corporate tax rates within OECD (see slide 17 - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/corporation-taxation-canada-44675640). FYI – I tried to explain that if you hike corporation tax then business will respond with their own gap action as part of targeting their net income either for shareholders (pension funds) or private owners. There is also issues with plugging income back into a business as such if you hike rates then business are less likely to plug earnings back into their business. I show the impact of corporate tax rates using AB (see slide 15 - http://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/alberta-49372634), but was criticized that business will not raise prices. It just goes to show you how little left knows about pricing. We could highlight the fact is under mulcair’s plan then you are likely to see 8-10% increase in your iPhone or iPad or new clothes or food or PS4/XBOX games, etc.

Mulcair Environment

• http://globalnews.ca/video/2156290/energy-east-pipeline-protesters-interrupt-mulcairs-book-signing “Mulcair said he has solid record on policies, right?