Mubasher 20160517 Foreign Fund Flows April 2016
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Page 1 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) April 2016 Trading Review
Equities | MENA
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Month Abu Dhabi Dubai Egypt Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Total
May-15 130.0 140.5 (24.0) 24.1 4.0 562.4 (31.9) 805.0
Jun-15 61.9 170.5 54.2 85.8 (24.6) 6.0 (250.2) 103.6
Jul-15 154.4 100.7 35.0 31.4 3.2 (73.3) (66.7) 184.6
Aug-15 91.7 (45.2) (31.1) (40.2) (28.3) 113.1 (136.0) (76.0)
Sep-15 79.3 36.3 12.9 (9.7) (9.5) 62.4 540.1 711.8
Oct-15 54.1 46.6 20.4 (29.3) (47.5) 51.4 (286.6) (190.8)
Nov-15 256.4 (90.0) (76.9) (59.2) (41.0) (17.5) (114.7) (142.8)
Dec-15 146.1 (54.4) (68.4) (13.3) 84.5 (192.3) (234.6) (332.4)
Jan-16 53.8 (99.4) (69.5) (67.3) (33.5) (46.8) (61.3) (324.0)
Feb-16 150.8 116.4 (26.8) 19.4 (33.4) 20.1 (117.3) 129.2
Mar-16 289.1 147.6 104.8 7.0 (27.8) 251.5 (85.3) 686.8
Apr-16 214.4 176.3 72.6 11.1 (11.9) 146.1 80.0 688.6
Trailing 12M 1,682.1 645.8 3.1 (40.4) (165.8) 883.0 (764.6) 2,243.4
All figures in USDmn
Note: Foreigners include non-GCC Arabs in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Sources: Countries’ stock exchange
websites, Bloomberg, MubasherTrade Research
Net trading by foreigners in key MENA markets (Egypt and GCC, ex-Bahrain) • In April 2016, foreigners were net buyers for the third consecutive month with net inflows of USD688.6mn versus net inflows of USD686.8mn a month earlier. Foreigners were: o Net sellers in Oman: total outflows of USD12mn. o Net buyers in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia: total inflows of
USD701mn. o In the trailing 12-month period, foreigners were net buyers across all MENA markets (ex.
Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia).
• IMF cut its 2016 growth forecasts for Egypt from 4.3% to 3.3%, Oman from 2.8% to 1.8%, Qatar from 4.9% to 3.4% and UAE from 2.6% to 2.4%, citing weak oil environment in the GCC region which pushed some governments to tap the debt markets for the first time in long years. The IMF decreased Egypt’s growth forecasts due to the decline in tourism revenues to USD500mn in Q1 2016, the lowest level since the January revolution. On another note, key GCC countries are planning to lower the facilities granted to expatriates. The Kuwaiti government intends to increase the price of power and water for foreigners. The Omani government proposed a 3% monthly fee on non-Omani workers while the Saudi government limited all jobs related to hiring workers in the private sector to Saudi nationals. On 17 April, the Doha meeting failed to reach an agreement to freeze oil production at January levels as Saudi Arabia demanded Iran to join the deal. In Saudi Arabia, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced his "Saudi Vision 2030", setting goals for the next 15 years in a package of economic and social policies designed to free the kingdom from dependence on oil exports. Furthermore, he announced that the state-controlled Public Investment Fund will be restructured as a hub for Saudi investment abroad, partly by raising money through IPO of less than 5% stake in the kingdom oil giant Aramco.
Ahmed Abd Elnaby Strategist
Mubasher International [email protected]
IMF lowers 2016 forecasts for key MENA countries; foreigners are net buyers in April across all markets except for Oman
Ayman Elshahed Analyst
Mubasher International [email protected]
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Abu Dhabi Dubai Egypt Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Total
USDmn
Index Level % Change ADT (USDmn) % Change
Market Mar-16 Apr-16 MoM Mar-16 Apr-16 MoM
Saudi Arabia 6,223.1 6,805.8 9.4% 1,521 1,568 3%
Oman 5,467.4 5,942.7 8.7% 11 16 56%
UAE (DFM) 3,355.5 3,491.9 4.1% 232 193 -17%
UAE (ADX) 4,390.4 4,543.5 3.5% 85 66 -22%
Egypt 7,525.0 7,773.2 3.3% 93 83 -11%
Kuwait 5,228.8 5,391.8 3.1% 47 46 -3%
Qatar 10,376.2 10,186.2 -1.8% 113 100 -12%
Page 2 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
EGYPT Monthly Breakdown 3 Historical Trend 4 KUWAIT Monthly Breakdown 6 Historical Trend 7 OMAN Monthly Breakdown 9 Historical Trend 10 QATAR Monthly Breakdown 12 Historical Trend 13 Top Stocks Inflows/Outflows 15
SAUDI ARABIA Monthly Breakdown 16 Historical Trend 17 UAE (ABU DHABI) Monthly Breakdown 19 Historical Trend 20 Top Stocks Inflows/Outflows 22 UAE (DUBAI) Monthly Breakdown 23 Historical Trend 24 Top Stocks Inflows/Outflows 26
Table of Contents
Page 3 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
Egypt | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners were net buyers in April with the same contribution to total trading from a month earlier.
Institutions were net buyers with slightly lower contribution to total trading.
1,333191
244
-1,425-172
-172
-92
19
73
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Nationals Arabs Foreigners
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDm
681
1,087
-652
-1,116
28
-28
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Institutions Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Nationals78%
Arabs10%
Foreigners12%
Institutions38%
Individuals62%
Page 4 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
Egypt | Historical Trend
Trading turnover and ADT decreased by 27% and 11% MoM, respectively.
Institutions contribution to total trading decreased MoM.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Foreigners Arabs Nationals
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Individuals Institutions
Page 5 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
Egypt | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
Egyptians Arabs ForeignersUSDmn
(200.0)
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
Institutions IndividualsUSDmn
(24.0)
54.2 35.0
(31.1)
12.9 20.4
(76.9) (68.4) (69.5)
(26.8)
104.8
72.6
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months Foreigners
USDmn
Page 6 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
Kuwait | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners are net buyers for the third consecutive month with a lower contribution to total trading.
Contribution by individuals and client accounts increased to 51% and 16%, respectively, on account of lower contribution by funds and corporate investors.
799 3681
-822 -25 -70
-23
11 11
Nationals GCC Foreigners
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
225
105
136
450
-205 -59
-163 -489
21
46
-27-39
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
Company Funds ClientsAccounts
Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Nationals89%
GCC3%Foreigners
8%
Company24%
Funds9%
Clients Accounts
16%
Individuals51%
Page 7 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
Kuwait | Historical Trend
Trading turnover and ADT decreased by 16% and 3% MoM, respectively.
Foreigners contribution to total trading decreased.
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nationals GCC Foreigners
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Individuals Company/Establishment
Investment Funds Clients Accounts
Page 8 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
24.1
85.8
31.4
(40.2)
(9.7)(29.3)
(59.2)
(13.3)
(67.3)
19.4 7.0 11.1
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months ForeignersUSDmn
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Company/Establishment
Investment Funds Individuals Clients Accounts
USDmn
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
Kuwaitis GCC ForeignersUSDmn
Kuwait | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
Page 9 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
282 216
18
-279-12 -6 -30
29
0
-12
Nationals GCC Arabs Foreigners
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Oman | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners are still net sellers with lower contribution to total trading.
Trading by institutions showed lower contribution vs. 68% in March 2016.
192135
-173 -155
20
-20
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-200
0
200
400
Institutions Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Nationals86%
GCC5%
Arabs1%
Foreigners7%
Institutions56%
Individuals44%
Page 10 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
Oman | Historical Trend
Total turnover and ADT increased by 40% and 56%, respectively, compared to March 2016.
Foreigners’ contribution to trading volumes fell by almost a half.
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nationals GCC Arabs Foreigners
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Institutions Individual
Page 11 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
Oman | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Omanis Aarbs GCC ForeignersUSDmn
(80.0)
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Institutions IndividualUSDmn
4.0
(24.6)
3.2
(28.3)(9.5)
(47.5) (41.0)
84.5
(33.5) (33.4) (27.8)(11.9)
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months ForeignersUSDmn
Page 12 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
Qatar | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners are still net buyers with a contribution of 28% of total trading, lower from March’s 31%.
Institutions are net buyers, contributing by 32% to total trading compared to 38% in March.
1,240 115635
-1,388
-113
-489
-148
2
146
Nationals GCC Foreigners
-200
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
200
-1,600
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1,200
1,600Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
6601,330
-618-1,372
42
-42-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
Institutions Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Nationals66%
GCC6%
Foreigners28%
Institutions32%
Individuals68%
Page 13 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
Qatar | Historical Trend
Both total turnover and ADT decreased by 20% and 12% MoM, respectively.
Trading contribution by nationals slightly increased in April 2016, on account of lower contribution by foreigners and GCC.
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nationals Foreigners GCC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nationals Foreigners GCC
Page 14 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
Qatar | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
(600.0)
(400.0)
(200.0)
-
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
Qatari Foreigners GCCUSDmn
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
Institutions IndividualsUSDmn
562.4
6.0
(73.3)
113.1 62.4 51.4
(17.5)
(192.3)
(46.8)
20.1
251.5
146.1
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months Foreigners
USDmn
Page 15 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Qatar | Top Stocks Inflows/Outflows | April 2016
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Nationals Foreigners GCC
* Trading on the stock took place in the last two trading days of April
Page 16 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
Saudi Arabia | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners turned to be net buyers with higher contribution to total trading. The nationals dominate the trading volume with almost the same contribution to total trading compared to March 2016.
Institutions are still net buyers with the same contribution to total trading compared to March 2016. The individuals still dominate the trading volume.
29,848
517
997
-29,968 -477 -917
-120
40
80
Nationals GCC Foreigners
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
4,4851,004
25,873
-2,020-923
-28,419
2,465
81
-2,546
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Institutions Foreigners(SWAP)
Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Nationals95%
GCC2%
Foreigners3%
Institutions10%
Foreigners (SWAP)
3%
Individuals87%
Page 17 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
Saudi Arabia | Historical Trend
Total turnover decreased by 10% MoM while ADT increased by 3% MoM.
National individuals still dominate the total trading with almost the same volumes.
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nationals GCC Foreigners
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Institutions Individuals Foreigners (SWAP)
Page 18 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
Saudi Arabia | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
(0.4)
(0.3)
(0.2)
(0.1)
-
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Nationals GCC ForeignersUSDbn
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
Institutions Foreigners (SWAP) IndividualsUSDbn
(0.032)
(0.250)
(0.067)(0.136)
0.540
(0.287)
(0.115)(0.235)
(0.061)(0.117) (0.085)
0.080
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months Foreigners
USDbn
Page 19 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
UAE (Abu Dhabi) | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners are still net buyers but with lower contribution to total trading.
Individuals are still net sellers with higher contribution to total trading volume.
680127
61
458
-868-144 -70
-244
-188
-17 -9
214
Nationals Arabs GCC Foreigners
-400
-200
0
200
400
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
701 625
-474-852
227
-227-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
Company Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
Nationals58%
Arabs10% GCC
5%
Foreigners27%
Company44%
Individuals56%
Page 20 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Company Individuals
UAE (Abu Dhabi) | Historical Trend
Total turnover and ADT decreased by 29% and 22% MoM respectively.
Contribution by nationals and individuals decreased in April compared with March.
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arabs GCC Foreigners Nationals
Page 21 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
UAE (Abu Dhabi) | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
UAE Arab GCC ForeignersUSDmn
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
-
200
400
600
800
Company IndividualUSDmn
130.0 61.9
154.4 91.7 79.3 54.1
256.4 146.1
53.8 150.8
289.1 214.4
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months Foreigners
USDmn
Page 22 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
-5.1
-33.4
-46.5
-49.0
-92.8
National Bank of Abu Dhabi
First Gulf Bank
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
Aldar Properties
EmiratesTelecommunications
92.5
67.5
45.1
36.6
3.8
EmiratesTelecommunications
Aldar Properties
Abu Dhabi CommercialBank
First Gulf Bank
National Bank of AbuDhabi
UAE (Abu Dhabi) | Top Stocks Inflows/Outflows | April 2016
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Arab GCC Foreigners Nationals
21.0
3.5
3.1
2.4
1.1
Invest bank
National Bank of RasAl-Khaima
Eshraq Properties
Dana Gas
Ras Al KhaimahCeramics
-0.5
-1.0
-3.0
-3.2
-19.7
Ras Al Khaimah Cement
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics
Dana Gas
Eshraq Properties
Invest bank
2.8
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.0
First Gulf Bank
National Bank of AbuDhabi
Agthia Group
Methaq TakafulInsurance
Bank of Sharjah
-0.3
-1.8
-1.8
-3.7
-7.7
Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics
Invest bank
RAK Properties
National Bank of Ras Al-Khaima
Aldar Properties
2.2
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.3
RAK Properties
Bank of Sharjah
Methaq Takaful Insurance
Invest bank
National Bank of Ras Al-Khaima
-1.05
-2.99
-3.3
-6.0
-6.6
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank
Aldar Properties
Dana Gas
First Gulf Bank
Eshraq Properties
Page 23 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Breakdown by Nationality Nationality (%)
Breakdown by Investor Type
Investor Type (%)
UAE (Dubai) | Monthly Breakdown | April 2016
Foreigners are net buyers with higher contribution to total trading, up from 14% in March 2016.
Individuals are still net sellers with lower contribution to total trading, down from 80% in March 2016.
2,092
779
279709
-2,191
-794-340
-532
-100
-15
-62
176
Nationals Arabs GCC Foreigners
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500Buy Sell Net (RHS)USDmn
9142,944
-774-3,084
140
-140
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Institutions Individuals
Buy Sell Net (RHS) USDmn
Nationals56%
Arabs20%
GCC8%
Foreigners16%
Institutions22%
Individuals78%
Page 24 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Total Turnover Average Daily Turnover
By Nationality By Investor Type
UAE (Dubai) | Historical Trend
Total turnover and ADT decreased by 29% and 17% MoM, respectively.
Foreigners contribution increased compared to March 2016.
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Total Turnover Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
ADT Chg MoM (RHS)
USDmn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Arabs GCC Foreigners Nationals
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Institutions Individuals
Page 25 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
Net Trading by Nationality Net Trading by Investor Type
Foreigners’ Cumulative Net Trading
UAE (Dubai) | Historical Trend (Cont.’d)
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
UAE Arab GCC ForeignersUSDmn
(250.0)
(200.0)
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Institutions IndividualUSDmn
140.5 170.5
100.7
(45.2)
36.3 46.6
(90.0)(54.4)
(99.4)
116.4 147.6
176.3
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16
Cumulative net trading for last 12 months Foreigners
USDmn
Page 26 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at
[email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document.
Foreign Fund Flows (FFF) | April 2016 Trading Review
Tuesday, 17 May 2016
120.2
7.8
6.6
3.4
2.79
Agility PublicWarehousing
Gulf Navigation Holding
Arabtec Holding
Al-Madina for Finance &Investment
Amlak Finance
7.5
4.2
3.4
2.1
1.4
Gulf Finance House
Amanat Holdings
Air Arabia
Emaar Malls Group
Aramex
112.8
28.2
17.4
8.7
5.9
Emaar Properties
Dubai Islamic Bank
Dubai Parks & Resorts
Gulf Navigation Holding
Agility Public Warehousing
UAE (Dubai) | Top Stocks Inflows/Outflows | April 2016
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Inflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Outflows | Top 5 Stocks (USDmn)
Arab GCC Foreigners Nationals
10.1
7.9
4.1
3.5
3.11
Dubai Investments
National CentralCooling
Mashreqbank
Union Properties
Amlak Finance
-6.69
-8.33
-10.53
-22.70
-83.63
Al-Madina for Finance &Investment
Gulf Navigation Holding
Arabtec Holding
Dubai Islamic Bank
Emaar Properties
-1.8
-3.7
-4.0
-4.3
-4.4
Amlak Finance
Mashreqbank
Amanat Holdings
Air Arabia
National Central Cooling
-5.9
-8.0
-9.2
-13.6
-19.3
Agility Public Warehousing
Dubai Islamic Bank
Dubai Investments
Dubai Parks & Resorts
Emaar Properties
-2.9
-2.9
-3.9
-4.3
-14.5
Gulf General Investment
National Central Cooling
Gulf Finance House
Dubai Financial Market
Emaar Properties
Important Disclosures METHODOLOGY: We strive to search for the best businesses that trade at the lowest valuation levels as measured by an issuer’s intrinsic value on a per-share basis. In doing so, we follow both top-down and bottom-up approaches. Under the top-down approach, we attempt to study the most important quantitative and qualitative factors that we believe can affect a security's value, including macroeconomic, sector-specific, and company-specific factors. Under the bottom-up approach, we focus on the analysis of individual stocks by running our proprietary scoring model, including valuation, financial performance, sentiment, trading, risk, and value creation.
COUNTRY MACRO RATINGS: We analyze the four main sectors of a country’s macroeconomics, then we assign , , and star for low risk, moderate risk, and high risk, respectively. We use different weights for each economic sector: (a) Real Sector (30% weight), (b) Monetary Sector (10% weight), (c) Fiscal Sector (25% weight), (d) External Sector (15% weight), and (e) Credit Rating and Outlook (20%).
STOCK MARKET RATINGS: We compare our year-end price targets for the subject market index on a total-return basis versus our calculated required rate of return (RRR). Taking into account our Country Macro Rating, we set the “Neutral” borderline (below which is “Underweight”) as 20% of RRR for Country Macro Rating, 40% of RRR for Country Macro Rating, and 60% of RRR for Country Macro Rating. That said, our index price targets are based on the average of two models. Model (1): Estimated index levels based on consensus price targets of all index constituents. Stocks with no price targets are valued at market price. Model (2): Estimated index levels based on our expected re-pricing (whether re-rating, de-rating, or unchanged rating) of the forward price-earnings ratio (PER) of each index in addition to consensus earnings growth for the forward year.
SECTOR RATINGS: On the sectors level, we focus on six major sectors, namely (1) Consumer and Health Care, (2) Financials, (3) Industrials, Energy, & Utilities, (4) Materials, (5) Real Estate, and (6) Telecom Services & IT. To assess each sector, we use the SWOT analysis to list the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in each country. We then translate our qualitative SWOT analysis into a quantitative model to evaluate all six sectors across countries. Each of the measures we used, although mostly subjective, is assigned a score as either +1 (high impact), 0 (medium impact), or -1 (low impact). At a later stage, when assigning the final rating – Overweight, Neutral, or Underweight – for each sector in each country, we realize that sometimes it is unfair to assign equal weights for the sub-sectors in each major sector assessed. Hence, some of the sub-sectors are given different weights for their significant profile in each country. Additionally, the final rating for each sector in each specific country is assigned based on a relative calculation comparing this sector to all other sectors in this country.
Low
(1)
Moderate
(2)
High
(3)
Buy
(B)Higher than RRR Higher than RRR Higher than RRR
Hold
(H)
Between RRR
and 20% of RRR
Between RRR
and 40% of RRR
Between RRR
and 60% of RRR
Sell
(S)
Lower than 20%
of RRR
Lower than 40%
of RRR
Lower than 60%
of RRR
Not Rated
(NR)
Not Covered
(NC)
We do not currently cover this stock or we are
restricted from coverage for regulatory reasons.
Inv
es
tme
nt
Ra
tin
g
Risk Rating
We have decided not to publish a rating on the
stock due to certain circumstances related to the
company (i.e. special situations).
If
Total Return
is …
Disclosure Appendix
SECURITY INVESTMENT RATINGS: We combine intrinsic value, relative valuation, and market sentiment into a single rating. Our three-pronged methodology involves (1) discounted cash flows “DCF” valuation model(s), (2) relative valuation metrics, and (3) overall sentiment. Whenever possible we attempt to apply all three aspects on the issuers or securities under review. In certain cases where we do not have our own financial and valuation models, we attempt to scan the market for other analysts’ value estimates and ratings (i.e. consensus view) on average. We compliment this with relative valuation and sentiment drivers, such as positive/neutral/negative news flows. For all issuers/securities covered, we have three investment ratings (Buy, Hold, or Sell), comparing the security’s expected total return (including both price performance and expected cash dividend) over a 12-month period versus its Required Rate of Return “RRR” as calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model “CAPM” and adjusted for the Risk Rating we attach to each security. Our price targets are subjective and are estimates of the analysts where the securities covered will trade within the next 12 months. Price targets can be derived from earnings-based valuation models (e.g. Discounted Cash Flow “DCF”), asset-based valuation models (e.g. Net Asset Value “NAV”), relative valuation multiples (e.g. PER, PBV, EV/EBITDA, etc.), or a combination of them. In case we do not have our own valuation model, we use a weighted average of market consensus price targets and ratings. We review the investment ratings periodically or as the situation necessitates.
SECURITY RISK RATINGS: We assess the risk profile of each issuer/security covered and assign one of three risk ratings (High, Moderate, or Low). The risk rating is weighted to reflect different aspects specific to (1) the sector, (2) the issuer, (3) the security under review, and (4) volatility versus the market (as measure by beta) and versus the security’s average annualized standard deviation. We review the risk ratings at least annually or as the situation necessitates.
Other Disclosures MFS does not have any proprietary holding in any securities. Only as a nominee, MFS holds shares on behalf of its clients through Omnibus accounts. MFS is not currently a market maker for any listed securities.
Analyst Certification I (we), Ahmed Abd Elnaby, Strategist, and Ayman Elshahed, Analyst, employed with Mubasher International, a company under the National Technology Group of Saudi Arabia being a shareholder of Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) and author(s) to this report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my (our) views about the subject issuer(s) or security(ies). I (we) also certify that no part of my (our) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed in this report.
Head of Research Certification I, Amr Hussein Elalfy, Global Head of Research of Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) confirm that I have vetted the information, and all the views expressed by the Analyst in this research report about the subject issuer(s) or security(ies). I also certify that the author of this report, has not received any compensation directly related to the contents of the Report.
Disclaimer This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) (‘MFS’) has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; MFS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the document are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. This document is not intended for all recipients and may not be suitable for all investors. Securities described in this document are not available for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. The document is not substitution for independent judgment by any recipient who should evaluate investment risks. Additionally, investors must regard this document as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional documents relating to the issuers and/or securities mentioned herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognized market, it may be difficult for investors to sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. References to ratings/recommendations are for informational purposes only and do not imply that MFS adopts, supports or confirms in any way the ratings/recommendations, opinions or conclusions of the analysts. This document is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MFS or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. MFS accepts no liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential damages or losses incurred by third parties including its clients from any use of this document or its contents.
Copyright © Copyright 2016, Mubasher Financial Services BSC (MFS), ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part or excerpt of this document may be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of MFS. MubasherTrade is a trademark of Mubasher Financial Services BSC. Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) is an Investment Business Firm Category 1, licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain.
Issuer of Report Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) is an Investment Business Firm Category 1, licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain. Website: www.MubasherTrade.com E-mail: [email protected]
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