Online Resource 11. Regional and National Wildfire Results by Region and Decade for All Models/ScenariosClimatic Change Article: Quantifying and Monetizing Potential Climate Change Policy Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Wildfires in the United States

Authors: David Mills, Russell Jones, Karen Carney, Alexis St. Juliana, Richard Ready, Allison Crimmins, Jeremy Martinich, Kate Shouse, Benjamin DeAngelo, and Erwan Monier

Corresponding author: David Mills, Stratus Consulting Inc., DMills@stratusconsulting.com

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Table 11.1 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 1

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

IGSM-CAM WIND = 1, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

(126,451) 33,644 148,477 (389,034) (234,203) (157,496) (107,092) (342,226) 51,105 307,261 (816,016)

California South Ops

(684) (770,639) 147,961 497,630 339,866 1,399,436 1,455,714 633,576 934,707 1,360,775 5,998,342

East Basin 16,439 416,767 (1,384,604) 1,727,698 1,045,080 294,471 2,973,638 (1,229,251) (424,922) (2,735,189) 700,128

Eastern Area

894 (3,509,510) (790,897) 2,430,367 10,604,919 1,216,049 4,364,965 5,801,048 913,732 1,251,833 22,283,400

Eastern Great Basin

(71,616) (849,500) 48,745 912,397 155,058 (36,893) 500,171 (831,241) 176,898 (108,184) (104,167)

Northern Rockies

(1,256,406) 19,109 2,321,881 (5,926,457) 5,354,416 (947,475) 12,069,271 3,020,481 4,482,161 9,426,083 28,563,062

Northwest (809,553) 195,528 (926,618) 2,778,971 (1,802,451) 1,560,523 (211,333) (236,853) 129,337 147,175 824,726

Rocky Mountain

(149,848) 781,224 (9,648,229) 3,486,831 9,584,384 (1,198,263) 19,560,299 (3,887,961) (1,250,525) 21,395,565 38,673,477

Southern Area

(1,879,977) 13,264,239 (5,141,663) 11,278,328 6,519,160 673,634 1,274,883 (4,560,407) (4,084,916) (3,832,162) 13,511,120

Southwest (137,693) 4,314,894 (3,430,909) 2,920,479 3,688,305 8,868,206 596,054 6,960,125 5,028,677 6,221,172 35,029,311

Western Great Basin

(32,115) 285,454 1,187,166 714,353 586,378 (63,684) 109,491 (110,765) 456,577 778,571 3,911,426

Total (4,447,011) 14,181,211 (17,468,690) 20,431,562 35,840,912 11,608,507 42,586,061 5,216,525 6,412,831 34,212,900 148,574,809

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Table 11.1 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 1

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops ($245) $77 $126 ($355) ($138) ($82) ($51) ($102) $10 $38 ($722)

California South Ops ($1) ($777) $87 $270 $127 $377 $299 $83 $104 $105 $674

East Basin $0 $5 ($9) $7 $3 $1 $7 ($3) ($0) ($3) $8

Eastern Area $0 ($332) ($52) $122 $355 $36 $97 $81 $13 $7 $328

Eastern Great Basin ($13) ($147) ($4) $82 $4 $1 $18 ($26) $2 ($4) ($88)

Northern Rockies ($757) ($149) $920 ($1,679) $1,156 ($35) $1,513 $218 $291 $440 $1,918

Northwest ($761) $433 ($545) $1,235 ($567) $376 ($47) ($35) $6 $9 $104

Rocky Mountain ($77) ($149) ($3,458) $940 $1,571 ($50) $2,134 ($489) ($13) $789 $1,199

Southern Area ($173) $993 ($354) $455 $200 $23 $37 ($69) ($42) ($33) $1,036

Southwest ($33) $873 ($550) $305 $281 $560 $45 $239 $121 $105 $1,945

Western Great Basin ($3) $22 $70 $31 $19 ($2) $2 ($1) $4 $6 $147

Total ($2,064) $849 ($3,768) $1,412 $3,011 $1,205 $4,054 ($104) $495 $1,459 $6,549

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 11.2 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

IGSM-CAM WIND = 13, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

366,114 (330,587) (21,481) 131,886 72,544 347,274 329,936 (7,818) 363,226 310,385 1,561,479

California South Ops

329,181 686,211 66,084 458,553 (167,120) 606,098 1,129,646 557,359 (537,244) 862,795 3,991,561

East Basin 377,411 (619,844) (87,624) 2,281,053 835,122 (3,256,939) 378,521 481,893 (2,036,943) 1,452,340 (195,012)

Eastern Area

3,294,477 (2,981,329) (1,232,503) 3,101,817 6,106,262 (2,394,858) 2,372,954 3,521,133 (8,124,093) 3,365,582 7,029,442

Eastern Great Basin

1,012,962 (735,107) (468,098) (509,611) (595,542) 91,289 (571,455) 986,759 (2,053,956) 27,934 (2,814,824)

Northern Rockies

4,554,205 2,297,623 (6,639,307) 1,771,751 (355,531) 4,911,912 (878,135) 8,225,050 (3,659,844) (3,202,221) 7,025,504

Northwest 850,204 (1,342,136) 390,378 2,510,252 257,035 3,070,971 2,855,409 1,406,952 (165,384) (1,149,808) 8,683,872

Rocky Mountain

5,938,935 (654,418) (19,488,934) (252,612) (2,315,616) (4,779,562) (2,872,277) 24,203,509 (12,256,984) (8,981,393) (21,459,351)

Southern Area

564,847 2,407,705 (2,818,481) (622,309) 3,675,215 (4,143,402) (206,722) 2,078,762 (1,640,544) (3,351,523) (4,056,454)

Southwest 172,867 3,304,037 (763,330) 354,486 3,909,870 (540,844) 5,259,925 6,133,390 5,138,212 7,131,618 30,100,230

Western Great Basin

77,777 (1,005,395) (389,401) (90,507) (440,042) (119,043) (642,765) 392,605 (1,797,730) (82,093) (4,096,594)

Total 17,538,981 1,026,761 (31,452,698) 9,134,760 10,982,196 (6,207,104) 7,155,037 47,979,593 (26,771,285) (3,616,386) 25,769,855

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Table 11.2 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 13

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops $709 ($580) ($50) $90 $49 $177 $111 $3 $72 $46 $628

California South Ops $358 $444 $24 $226 ($98) $161 $257 $80 ($68) $76 $1,461

East Basin $4 ($8) ($1) $13 $4 ($10) $2 $1 ($2) $1 $4

Eastern Area $353 ($308) ($91) $178 $250 ($63) $57 $59 ($99) $28 $364

Eastern Great Basin $191 ($127) ($74) ($51) ($41) $0 ($23) $27 ($40) $1 ($138)

Northern Rockies $2,745 $1,083 ($2,697) $467 $138 $787 ($137) $791 ($211) ($155) $2,811

Northwest $800 ($1,109) $144 $906 $67 $752 $472 $181 ($7) ($86) $2,119

Rocky Mountain $3,043 ($916) ($6,831) ($83) ($387) ($779) ($114) $2,088 ($722) ($385) ($5,086)

Southern Area $52 $106 ($188) $17 $141 ($121) $8 $36 ($15) ($27) $9

Southwest $42 $635 ($178) $80 $355 ($57) $271 $230 $127 $138 $1,643

Western Great Basin $7 ($79) ($25) ($3) ($15) ($3) ($11) $5 ($18) ($0) ($144)

Total $8,303 ($857) ($9,969) $1,841 $462 $845 $891 $3,503 ($985) ($362) $3,671

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 11.3 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

IGSM-CAM WIND = 14, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

33,951.25 204,876 136,531 (320,258) 592,846 (448,923) 386,862 (153,796) 44,287 477,341 953,717

California South Ops

(12,053) (494,231) 255,132 (381,062) 875,658 (674,067) 745,634 271,306 1,054,808 1,702,505 3,343,630

East Basin (861,488) 1,382,431 7,691,627 (3,501,115) 246,887 2,556,924 456,041 (28,616) (972,434) 304,292 7,274,549

Eastern Area

79,517 1,823,243 17,222,210 (8,909,518) (2,743,838) 4,383,158 2,120,738 (1,324,887) 521,109 285,861 13,457,591

Eastern Great Basin

(648,961) 453,250 791,627 (590,476) (534,633) 221,322 554,216 (74,656) (886,756) 1,046,864 331,797

Northern Rockies

(435,539) (1,108,671) 3,614,887 (5,788,446) 3,581,260 (2,917,442) 7,304,312 (3,385,089) 871,035 (385,176) 1,351,130

Northwest (66,548) (1,582,336) 2,482,069 (3,013,228) 1,462,015 (394,482) 477,572 (999,843) (598,294) 41,125 (2,191,949)

Rocky Mountain

1,207,217 (2,796,759) 19,152,369 (19,001,449) (1,663,065) 10,993,137 7,889,871 15,827,210 (29,067) (5,810,477) 25,768,986

Southern Area

(519,155) 2,748,737 19,655,186 (7,836,524) (3,746,860) 10,754,994 2,574,302 (179,004) (864,415) 1,605,056 24,192,317

Southwest (140,355) 4,072,549 3,597,998 (5,192,134) (3,579,429) 7,313,180 5,694,662 7,519,204 8,616,004 7,434,983 35,336,664

Western Great Basin

177 (758,765) (122,914) (377,804) (648,348) (486,488) (23,300) (536,979) 456,916 684,824 (1,812,681)

Total (1,363,237) 3,944,323 74,476,722 (54,912,015) (6,157,506) 31,301,314 28,180,910 16,934,849 8,213,193 7,387,197 108,005,751

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Table 11.3 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 14

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops $66 $325 $90 ($324) $398 ($246) $141 ($45) $11 $76 $491

California South Ops ($13) ($479) $186 ($210) $329 ($202) $170 $36 $128 $147 $93

East Basin ($10) $14 $56 ($16) $1 $7 $1 ($0) ($1) $0 $54

Eastern Area $9 $179 $1,166 ($389) ($106) $118 $45 ($21) $8 $1 $1,008

Eastern Great Basin ($122) $87 $68 ($68) ($37) $13 $23 ($1) ($15) $14 ($39)

Northern Rockies ($263) ($410) $1,071 ($1,423) $853 ($430) $901 ($306) $58 ($46) $5

Northwest ($63) ($1,196) $1,347 ($1,359) $486 ($142) $75 ($151) ($46) ($4) ($1,052)

Rocky Mountain $618 ($1,015) $5,846 ($4,163) ($128) $1,460 $885 $1,198 ($7) ($325) $4,369

Southern Area ($48) $201 $1,165 ($381) ($82) $275 $47 ($4) ($6) $10 $1,178

Southwest ($34) $872 $521 ($669) ($269) $513 $278 $257 $220 $143 $1,832

Western Great Basin $0 ($55) ($6) ($16) ($22) ($11) $0 ($8) $4 $5 ($108)

Total $141 ($1,478) $11,509 ($9,017) $1,426 $1,354 $2,565 $955 $353 $22 $7,830

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 11.4 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

IGSM-CAM WIND = 26, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

2,445 (262,808) (178,050) (171,523) 23,676 (31,123) (89,208) (194,132) 11,402 298,448 (590,874)

California South Ops

37,852 (69,789) (582,369) (254,086) 177,329 1,854,395 474,950 108,941 743,603 807,616 3,298,441

East Basin 1,073 1,372,745 (333,340) 1,967,082 (3,174,083) 5,729,176 (1,931,229) 597,126 (2,209,195) 1,905,648 3,925,005

Eastern Area

(1,121) 4,783,221 (1,126,715) 9,477,254 (6,447,063) 25,394,153 (3,263,687) 2,559,474 (3,283,237) 6,494,469 34,586,749

Eastern Great Basin

(22,247) (1,236,062) 157,618 1,626,225 (1,152,321) (539,516) (850,837) 909,295 273,827 (230,009) (1,064,027)

Northern Rockies

(1,626,121) 2,747,780 2,677,613 6,307,670 (12,381,457) 13,316,832 (5,150,326) 6,048,197 601,793 5,963,136 18,505,116

Northwest (154,703) 1,019,126 884,134 785,624 (216,807) 1,270,662 860,843 (761,622) 317,726 2,307,853 6,312,835

Rocky Mountain

(13,831,245) 18,859,802 3,282,247 7,400,663 (5,954,900) 19,273,695 (25,113,048) 13,683,737 (6,993,519) 35,267,364 45,874,796

Southern Area

(541,804) 5,152,786 (3,080,622) 588,867 (304,535) 5,976,671 (10,588,990) 6,740,903 (2,706,594) 432,629 1,669,311

Southwest 100,608 (3,618,785) (320,673) 1,593,206 2,187,971 3,635,446 2,632,855 6,995,722 3,357,363 2,991,117 19,554,830

Western Great Basin

(534) (655,183) (52,211) (745,741) (12,979) (23,127) 916,501 1,262,202 874,445 968,760 2,532,135

Total (16,035,798) 28,092,832 1,327,632 28,575,241 (27,255,169) 75,857,264 (42,102,176) 37,949,844 (9,012,385) 57,207,032 134,604,317

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Table 11.4 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 26

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops $5 ($411) ($191) ($170) $25 ($11) ($35) ($53) $5 $38 ($798)

California South Ops $41 ($44) ($382) ($129) $81 $508 $108 $17 $90 $71 $362

East Basin $0 $13 ($4) $10 ($12) $17 ($4) $1 ($3) $2 $20

Eastern Area ($0) $439 ($77) $454 ($258) $703 ($72) $41 ($35) $57 $1,252

Eastern Great Basin ($4) ($197) $24 $137 ($87) ($32) ($29) $29 $7 ($3) ($156)

Northern Rockies ($980) $1,544 $1,320 $1,710 ($2,731) $2,138 ($593) $605 $14 $329 $3,356

Northwest ($146) $767 $492 $302 ($72) $303 $184 ($69) $43 $191 $1,995

Rocky Mountain ($7,086) $9,298 $1,304 $1,784 ($1,128) $2,590 ($2,556) $1,102 ($381) $1,592 $6,519

Southern Area ($50) $434 ($194) $21 ($17) $138 ($191) $91 ($30) $3 $206

Southwest $24 ($718) ($35) $119 $187 $224 $124 $251 $80 $61 $318

Western Great Basin ($0) ($50) ($3) ($35) ($0) ($0) $17 $17 $9 $7 ($38)

Total ($8,195) $11,074 $2,254 $4,204 ($4,011) $6,578 ($3,046) $2,030 ($200) $2,349 $13,036

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

9

Table 11.5 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

IGSM-CAM WIND = 28, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

(134,638) (7,279) (72,277) (398,466) (260,766) (103,004) (109,540) (73,293) (376,135) 643,609 (891,790)

California South Ops

67,327 889,387 1,609,392 116,285 770,530 (321,662) 210,762 758,142 (28,238) 1,000,129 5,072,052

East Basin 2,756 (371,034) (364,602) (2,456,059) 977,998 2,048,001 (259,862) (2,796,788) 4,415,901 2,906,851 4,103,162

Eastern Area

43,799 (3,955,851) 2,125,622 (1,857,858) 6,177,350 6,830,209 (3,272,917) (9,667,522) 9,019,009 12,631,575 18,073,417

Eastern Great Basin

(70,511) 1,006,591 694,185 707,997 (558,094) 389,434 1,999,157 (347,089) 968,270 723,001 5,512,942

Northern Rockies

(197) (5,051,444) 7,152,893 (1,588,677) 6,770,945 6,250,495 7,804,450 (2,517,156) 6,099,504 8,267,272 33,188,084

Northwest (32,928) (249,570) 2,276,417 (292,137) (46,902) 3,284,948 1,763,580 2,471,807 209,222 2,271,502 11,655,940

Rocky Mountain

33,176 5,075,587.52 (4,835,630) 8,066,918 733,397 19,369,348 6,247,543 1,654,453 12,472,785 23,790,694 72,608,271

Southern Area

185,257 8,202,956 (6,030,119) 1,626,140 (4,081,109) 692,702 3,917,541 (8,452,655) 5,521,462 1,362,177 2,944,351

Southwest (387,825) 569,252 (1,936,672) (3,099,824) 3,161,115 2,591,279 3,573,293 11,466,904 6,330,249 9,356,118 31,623,889

Western Great Basin

118,165 2,874,994 2,120,112 3,277,928 1,177,500 1,323,016 (318,750) (636,732) 283,696 1,338,169 11,558,099

Total (175,620) 8,983,590 2,739,320 4,102,247 14,821,964 42,354,766 21,555,256 (8,139,930) 44,915,725 64,291,096 195,448,414

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Table 11.5 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under IGSM-CAM WIND = 28

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops ($261) ($65) ($141) ($357) ($172) ($53) ($23) ($13) ($70) $107 ($1,049)

California South Ops $73 $806 $1,065 $33 $313 ($105) $32 $129 ($4) $86 $2,428

East Basin $0 ($5) ($2) ($12) $5 $6 ($0) ($3) $5 $2 ($5)

Eastern Area $5 ($392) $134 ($78) $236 $185 ($68) ($130) $102 $97 $92

Eastern Great Basin ($13) $147 $67 $41 ($33) $12 $71 ($10) $20 $8 $311

Northern Rockies ($0) ($2,691) $2,309 ($621) $1,532 $889 $864 ($164) $401 $380 $2,898

Northwest ($31) ($328) $1,232 ($279) $53 $727 $314 $366 $45 $178 $2,277

Rocky Mountain $17 $1,735 ($1,993) $1,818 $310 $2,509 $555 $246 $683 $874 $6,754

Southern Area $17 $557 ($387) $69 ($114) $21 $82 ($99) $61 $9 $217

Southwest ($94) $92 ($331) ($399) $267 $172 $177 $411 $175 $177 $647

Western Great Basin $11 $218 $124 $142 $39 $31 ($5) ($9) $3 $10 $565

Total ($277) $73 $2,076 $358 $2,436 $4,394 $2,000 $723 $1,421 $1,929 $15,133

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

11

Table 11.6 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under CCSM

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

CCSM, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

7,693 (35,455) 38,923 (45,843) 117,131 (72,152) 204,017 302,637 77,437 2,954 597,343

California South Ops

(14,466) (78,325) (104,245) 130,542 319,123 781,938 397,436 679,149 1,022,124 857,011 3,990,287

East Basin 0 482 16 (872,735) (144) 161 95 (894) (416,243) 578 (1,288,683)

Eastern Area

877 3,144 14,345 (133,453) 5,426 (6,770) 798,995 220,398 90,838 (1,580) 992,221

Eastern Great Basin

(85,734) 77,604 (54,072) (140,354) 494,811 551,384 518,148 851,062 771,699 1,678,718 4,663,265

Northern Rockies

15,040 412,661 166,982 1,275,632 103,502 3,516,041 1,801,152 3,496,529 2,928,571 5,265,675 18,981,787

Northwest (51,181) (240,269) 243,749 300,608 1,189,187 1,150,128 1,996,296 1,759,485 4,600,279 3,509,471 14,457,752

Rocky Mountain

(220,967) 984,287.28 (217,130) 7,468 320,038 2,498,460 4,256,563 4,827,167 4,605,740 5,201,269 22,262,897

Southern Area

(154,060) (441,231) 191,994 (734,160) (16,841) 538,548 2,137,295 2,559,465 (977,317) 2,057,859 5,161,551

Southwest 207,818 (86,756) (484,250) 374,905 968,791 1,485,787 3,041,582 3,507,885 4,398,254 4,745,665 18,159,680

Western Great Basin

(27,045) (26,661) (18,737) 112,953 128,307 85,041 476,563 484,848 368,429 1,071,927 2,655,625

Total (322,022) 569,481 (222,426) 275,563 3,629,331 10,528,565 15,628,142 18,687,734 17,469,812 24,389,547 90,633,725

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Table 11.6 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under CCSM

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops $20 ($55) $47 ($41) $85 ($36) $63 $83 $13 ($2) $177

California South Ops ($14) ($77) ($95) $67 $120 $223 $87 $108 $121 $75 $617

East Basin $0 $0 $0 ($5) ($0) $0 $0 ($0) ($0) $0 ($5)

Eastern Area $0 $0 $1 ($7) $0 ($0) $16 $3 $1 ($0) $15

Eastern Great Basin ($17) $15 ($8) ($15) $32 $28 $18 $23 $16 $25 $117

Northern Rockies $10 $198 $75 $374 $22 $523 $196 $301 $194 $248 $2,140

Northwest ($63) ($186) $139 $144 $416 $293 $359 $237 $471 $262 $2,072

Rocky Mountain ($113) $473 ($66) $24 $35 $334 $413 $365 $253 $209 $1,927

Southern Area ($7) ($33) $17 ($33) ($1) $12 $34 $30 ($10) $15 $25

Southwest $62 ($19) ($78) $44 $85 $95 $140 $119 $112 $93 $653

Western Great Basin ($3) ($2) ($1) $5 $4 $2 $8 $7 $4 $8 $31

Total ($125) $314 $32 $558 $800 $1,474 $1,333 $1,276 $1,174 $933 $7,768

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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Table 11.7 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under MIROC

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

MIROC, reduction in hectares burned with POL3.7 (REF – POL3.7), no discounting

California North Ops

(68,274) 27,527 7,520 (20,617) 44,374 104,474 (130,454) 183,862 217,747 205,886 572,043

California South Ops

6,464 (40,621) 64,848 (128,001) 490,723 151,675 630,505 739,141 703,365 707,959 3,326,060

East Basin 0 (106) 234,315 144,293 (78,572) 630,512 145,860 537,276 222,456 68,804 1,904,836

Eastern Area

(228,671) 215,984 (497,440) (337,774) 194,306 1,013,647 1,870,299 1,002,791 1,581,868 609,751 5,424,761

Eastern Great Basin

(97,565) 400,629 251,728 599,586 481,613 198,165 466,731 204,288 (212,298) 1,300,731 3,593,608

Northern Rockies

124,065 (90,242) 579,175 215,893 790,886 3,396,112 (190,562) 2,304,244 1,229,995 2,975,949 11,335,517

Northwest 240,083 473,373 145,947 347,648 426,812 2,027,237 (209,637) 1,449,420 2,370,600 2,135,200 9,406,682

Rocky Mountain

330,168 1,111,800 1,571,996 (1,000,169) 1,670,425 3,951,916 4,187,327 1,863,825 4,864,846 4,983,114 23,535,248

Southern Area

(142,273) (351,234) 32,655 371,083 50,518 2,819,651 635,658 4,569,483 2,945,859 8,161,656 19,093,055

Southwest (16,683) (176,643) 241,340 (303,071) 191,609 381,885 (18,813) 954,222 1,954,390 2,239,810 5,448,046

Western Great Basin

26,645 17,563 (50,121) 51,988 (189,550) 86,988 (214,034) (125,571) (372,318) 968,553 200,144

Total 173,958 1,588,031 2,581,963 (59,141) 4,073,145 14,762,261 7,172,880 13,682,980 15,506,510 24,357,412 83,840,000

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Table 11.7 POL3.7 impacts on area burned under MIROC

Region 2001–2010 2011–2020 2021–2030 2031–2040 2041–2050 2051–2060 2061–2070 2071–2080 2081–2090 2091–2100 Total

Reduction in wildfire response cost in discounted millions of US$ 2005 (low response cost), discounted to year 2015 base at 3.0%

California North Ops ($135) $53 $4 ($16) $32 $51 ($36) $50 $46 $31 $79

California South Ops $13 ($48) $38 ($77) $184 $42 $141 $115 $78 $60 $548

East Basin $0 ($0) $1 $1 ($0) $2 $0 $1 $0 $0 $6

Eastern Area ($32) $19 ($30) ($16) $7 $29 $39 $15 $18 $5 $54

Eastern Great Basin ($15) $63 $29 $47 $30 $12 $18 $5 ($4) $19 $203

Northern Rockies $77 ($39) $202 $33 $165 $505 ($42) $200 $88 $134 $1,324

Northwest $259 $337 $113 $105 $125 $492 ($31) $192 $239 $160 $1,991

Rocky Mountain $172 $496 $471 ($232) $292 $541 $407 $144 $271 $193 $2,755

Southern Area ($15) ($23) $8 $17 $1 $69 $10 $55 $30 $56 $207

Southwest ($2) ($36) $38 ($37) $26 $27 $0 $33 $52 $44 $145

Western Great Basin $3 $2 ($3) $3 ($6) $2 ($4) ($1) ($4) $7 ($2)

Total $325 $823 $873 ($173) $855 $1,773 $503 $809 $813 $709 $7,311

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

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