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IMTI I n t e g r a t e d M a n u f a c tu r in g Te c h n o lo g y

I n i t i a t i v e

Integrated Manufacturing TechnologyRoadmapping Project

Modeling & Simulation

24 July 2000

Prepared by the IMTR M&S Workshop Groupand the IMTR Roadmapping Project Team

IMTI, Inc.P.O. Box 5296

Oak Ridge, TN 37831Phone: (865) 947-7000Fax: (865) 947-7001

email: [email protected]://www.IMTI21.org


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I N T E G R A T E D M A N U F A C T U R I N G T E C H N O L O G Y I N I T I A T I V E

Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000ii

Integrated Manufacturing Technology Roadmapping Project:Roadmap for Modeling & Simulation

Published by the Integrated Manufacturing Technology Initiative, Inc.P.O. Box 5296, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830

Copyright 2000 IMTI, Inc.All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced for commercial purposes in any form

by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner. Material may

be excerpted for educational and noncommercial uses with attribution.

Printed in the United States of America


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000iii

FOREWORD

This document, the IMTI Roadmap for Modeling & Simulation, is a living plan being distributedto a wide audience of industry, government, and academic reviewers. Your comments andsuggestions for improvements are welcome and strongly encouraged.

The IMTI roadmaps represent an important first step in the initiation of a broad-based effort by

government and industry to identify, develop, and deliver advances technologies that willenable manufacturers to operate with unprecedented speed, quality, precision, efficiency,responsiveness, and cost-effectiveness.

We appreciate your involvement and support in IMTIs initiatives, and look forward toworking with all members of the manufacturing community to help make our vision for futuremanufacturing excellence come alive.


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000iv

CONTRIBUTORS

The IMTR M&S Workshop Group and Major Contributors:

Gene Allen, MacNeal-Schwendler Corp. Hossein Arsham, University of Baltimore Perakath Benjamin, Knowledge-Based Systems,

Inc. Diane Bird, U.S. Department of Energy Frank Boydston, Tinker AFB Robert G. Brown, Deneb Robotics Paul Cole, Lockheed Martin Terry Domm, Oak Ridge Centers for Manufac-

turing Technology Terry Futrell, Oak Ridge Centers for Manufac-

turing Technology Vaughn Hetem, Chrysler Corp. Richard H.F. Jackson, National Institute of

Standards & Technology Albert T. Jones, National Institute of Standards

& Technology M.C. Jothishankar, Rockwell Collins Carl Klein, Johnson Controls Art Koehler, Procter & Gamble

Bruce Kramer, National Science Foundation Alex Lengyel, SAP Labs, Inc. Kevin Lyons, Defense Advanced Research

Projects Agency Dan Maas, NCMS Gene Meieran, Intel Corp. Don Millard, Rennselaer Polytechnic Institute Mary Mitchell, National Institute of Standards

& Technology Steve Montgomery, Sandia National Laborato-

ries Mohsen Rezayat, Structural Dynamics Research

Corp. Karen Richter, Institute for Defense Analysis David C. Stieren, National Institute of Standards

& Technology Bob Taussig, Bechtel Frank Tidaback, Caterpillar Richard Wysk, Penn State University

The IMTR Project Team:

Linda Bowling, Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology Bill Brosey, Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology Dudley Caswell, Enterprise Innovations Spivey Douglass, Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology Sara Jordan, Lockheed Martin Energy Systems Doug Marks, Pinnacle Communication Services Richard Neal, IMTR Project Manager, Lockheed Martin Energy Systems Jim Snyder, Lockheed Martin Energy Systems


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000v

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................................................................11.0 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................................................1-1

1.1 The IMTR Challenge .......................................................................................................................................................1-11.2 Modeling & Simulation Faster, Cheaper, Better ...................................................................................1-31.3 Maximizing Return on R&D Investments: The Nuggets of M&S ..........................................1-61.4 Roadmap Organization ................................................................................................................................................1-21

2.0 PRODUCT MODELING & SIMULATION FUNCTIONS ......................................................................2-12.1 Functional Model Definition ....................................................................................................................................2-12.2 Current State Assessment for Product Modeling & Simulation ...................................................2-1

2.2.1 Physical Representation ................................................................................................................................2-32.2.2 Performance ...........................................................................................................................................................2-42.2.3 Cost/Affordability............................................................................................................................................2-52.2.4 Producibility...........................................................................................................................................................2-62.2.5 Life-Cycle Requirements ..............................................................................................................................2-7

2.3 Future State Vision, Goals, & Requirements for Product Modeling & Simulation ........2-72.3.1 Physical Representation ................................................................................................................................2-82.3.2 Performance ...........................................................................................................................................................2-122.3.3 Cost/Affordability ............................................................................................................................................2-132.3.4 Producibility...........................................................................................................................................................2-142.3.5 Life-Cycle Requirements ..............................................................................................................................2-152.4 Roadmap for Produc t Modeling & Simulation..........................................................................................2-16

3.0 MANUFACTURING PROCESS MODELING & SIMULATION FUNCTIONS .................3-13.1 Functional Model Definition ....................................................................................................................................3-13.2 Current State Assessment for Manufacturing Process Modeling & Simulation ..............3-2

3.2.1 Material Processing ..........................................................................................................................................3-33.2.2 Assembly/Disassembly/Reassembly................................................................................................3-63.2.3 Quality, Test, & Evaluation ........................................................................................................................3-63.2.4 Packaging.................................................................................................................................................................3-83.2.5 Remanufacture.....................................................................................................................................................3-8

3.3 Future State Vision, Goals, & Requirements for Manufacturing ProcessModeling & Simulation...............................................................................................................................................3-93.3.1 Material Processing ..........................................................................................................................................3-113.3.2 Assembly/Disassembly/Reassembly................................................................................................3-143.3.3 Quality, Test, & Evaluation ........................................................................................................................3-153.3.4 Packaging.................................................................................................................................................................3-173.3.5 Remanufacture.....................................................................................................................................................3-18

3.4 Roadmap for Manufacturing Process Modeling & Simulat ion .....................................................3-19


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000vi

CONTENTS(continued)

4.0 ENTERPRISE MODELING & SIMULATION FUNCTIONS ...............................................................4-14.1 Functional Model Definition ....................................................................................................................................4-14.2 Current State Assessment for Enterprise Modeling & Simulation .............................................4-2

4.2.1 Business Functions............................................................................................................................................4-24.2.1.1 Strategic Positioning....................................................................................................................4-34.2.1.2 Market Assessment & Positioning....................................................................................4-44.2.1.3 Risk Management..........................................................................................................................4-44.2.1.4 Financial/Cost Management ................................................................................................4-44.2.1.5 Enterprise Resource Management....................................................................................4-54.2.1.6 Quality Management ..................................................................................................................4-54.2.1.7 Enterprise Architecture Management ............................................................................4-64.2.1.8 Extended Enterprise Management...................................................................................4-7

4.2.2 Operations Functions......................................................................................................................................4-84.2.2.1 Resource Management...............................................................................................................4-84.2.2.2 Performance Management......................................................................................................4-84.2.2.3 Factory Operations........................................................................................................................4-84.2.2.4 Facility Infrastructure Management................................................................................4-9

4.3 Future State Vision, Goals, & Requirements for Enterprise Modeling& Simulation ........................................................................................................................................................................4-94.3.1 Business Functions ............................................................................................................................................4-10

4.3.1.1 Strategic Positioning....................................................................................................................4-104.3.1.2 Market Assessment & Positioning....................................................................................4-124.3.1.3 Risk Management ..........................................................................................................................4-134.3.1.4 Financial/Cost Management ................................................................................................4-134.3.1.5 Enterprise Resource Management....................................................................................4-144.3.1.6 Quality Management ..................................................................................................................4-154.3.1.7 Enterprise Architecture Management ............................................................................4-154.3.1.8 Extended Enterprise Management ...................................................................................4-16

4.3.2 Operations Functions......................................................................................................................................4-174.3.2.1 Operations Resource Management ..................................................................................4-174.3.2.2 Performance Management......................................................................................................4-184.3.2.3 Factory Operat ions........................................................................................................................4-194.3.2.4 Facility Infrastructure Management................................................................................4-20

4.4 Roadmap for Enterprise Modeling & Simulation....................................................................................4-20

APPENDICES

A. NGM: An Industry-Driven Collaboration..................................................................................................A-1B. The IMTR Roadmapping Process........................................................................................................................A-2C. Highlights of IMTR Modeling & Simulation Survey Findings ....................................................A-3D. Glossary ..................................................................................................................................................................................A-4E. Bibliography & Suggested Reading...................................................................................................................A-8F. M&S Cross-Walks for IMTR Nuggets ..............................................................................................................A-21


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000Executive Summar y

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Challenge of 21 st CenturyManufacturing

Manu facturers to day face greater challengesthan ever. Globalization has greatly expand -ed th e availability of new m arkets, while si-multaneously spurring intense competition inall manu facturing sectors. New technologiesenable us to design, build, distribut e, andsupp ort new and improved products withspeed and quality not to be believed just afew years ago.

Clearly, innovations in processes, equipm ent,and systems are driving a major transforma-tion of the U.S. manu facturing base over thenext few decades. Although this transforma -tion is well und erway, it is far from comp lete,and even greater changes can be expected inthe future.

Manu facturers, technology su pp liers, re-searchers, and governm ent agencies have aunique op portunity to lead and accelerate thetransformation o f the U.S. manu facturin g in-frastructure and enhan ce the economic well-being of the nation . While a tremendou s vol-um e of resources is being expend ed on d evel-oping n ew m anu facturing technologies, it isclear that 1) there is mu ch redu nd ant effortbeing focused in a few key areas; 2) manymanufacturing infrastructure issues that af-fect all of ind ustry are receiving insufficientattention; and 3) hu ge investments in prop rie-tary solutions are either n ot delivering ontheir prom ises or are being rendered m oot bynew technologies or unp redicted changes in

the business environment.Many manufacturing sectors have developedroadmaps to define a p ath to the future fortheir industry, and identify technology ad-vances that will help them r edu ce costs, in-crease profitability, improve quality, shortentime-to-market, respond to regulatory dr iv-ers, and better serve their customers andother stakeholders. Road map ping hasproven to be a valuable strategy to assure that

investments are well placed. Many of theseroadmaps identify infrastructure issues asmajor barriers to progress, but there has been

little concerted attem pt to attack these barri-ers with th e intensity required for success.

IMTR: Building a Strong NationalManufacturing InfrastructureRecognizing these challenges, the Nation alInstitute of Standard s and Technology (N IST),U.S. Departmen t of Energy (DOE), NationalScience Foun dation (NSF), and Defense Ad -vanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA),launched th e Integrated Manufacturing Tech-nology Road map ping (IMTR) Initiative in1998 to develop a research and d evelopmentagenda that:

Defines key technology goals that cut acrossall manufacturing sectors

Provides focus for concentrated effort toachieve the goals

Promotes collaborative R&D in sup port of critical requ irements.

Leveraging work don e by the Next-Genera-tion Man ufacturing (NGM) p roject, whichpu blished its final repor t in early 1997, IMTRis defining future manufacturing technologyrequirements and ou tlining solution paths tomeet these requiremen ts in four interrelatedareas:

Information Systems for Manu facturin gEnterp rises (IS)

Modeling & Simulation for Manu facturing(M&S)

Manufacturing Processes & Equipm ent(MPE)

Technologies for Enterprise Integration(TEI).

Using a series of worksh ops and reviews in-volving more than 400 individuals represent-ing a b road cross-section of the nations


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manu facturing comm un ity, the IMTR teamhas comp leted its baseline road map s for IS,M&S, and MPE, and is now d eveloping theroadm ap for TEI. The first three road map sare available on the IMTR web site (http:/ / ww w.IMTI21.org) for dow nloading by inter-ested reviewers.

Each IMTR roadmap prov ides an assessmentof the current state of art and practice in thetechnology area, a vision of the futu re state,and a series of goals, requiremen ts, and tasksto achieve that vision. Each do cument in-clud es a series of milestone schedu les that layout a time-phased p lan for accomplishing thedefined scopes of effort.

The sponsor agencies and other technologyusers and d evelopers will use the roadmapsas an inpu t to their planning p rocesses, with agoal of focusing more r esources on high-payoff needs, reducing redundant parallelefforts, and m aximizing returns on their R&Dinvestments.

The IMTR VisionIn developing the IMTR roadm aps, there hasemerged a comm on vision of several attrib-utes of future manufacturing enterprises andhow th ey will function internally and interactwith their customers, partners, suppliers,workforce, and o ther stakeholders.

Some key a spects of this vision include:

Total Connectedness All enterprise proc-esses, equipm ent and systems will be linkedvia a robust communications infrastructurethat delivers the right information at theright time, wherever it is needed .

Integrated Enterprise Managemen t Hierarchical, interconnected, simu lation-based engineering, manufacturing, andbusiness systems will ensure that decisionswill be made in real-time and on th e basis of enterprise-wide impact.

Fully Integrated Produ ct Realization In-telligent d esign systems linked to a richbase of science- and experience-basedknowledge will enable products and m anu-facturing processes to be conceived and op -timized for performance, cost-effectiveness,and quality with no iterative physical proto-typing right the first time, every time.

Plug & Play Interoperability All techni-cal, manufacturing and business systemswill be seamlessly plug-compatible and self-integrating, such that a new software mod-ule or new p iece of equip ment can be in-serted into the manufacturing enterpriseand be operational immediately, with zerointegration cost.

Seamless, Flexible Distribu ted O peration

Self-integrating systems, shared k now ledgebases, and a robu st comm un ications infra-structure will enable widely distributed op-erations to interoperate in real time, regard -less of geographic separation. This willhelp compan ies to establish virtual enter-prise teaming relationships on t he fly topursue emerging opportun ities.

Intell igen t, Efficient Processes The abilityto measur e, analyze, and control processesin uncertain conditions will mature to thepoint that all p rocesses will operate intelli-gently in closed-loop environm ents with100% assu ran ce of qu ality, in-p rocess. Im-proved processing technology, optimizedprod uct and process design, and life-cycle

responsibility will enable zero net waste inevery aspect of the manufacturing enter-prise.

Science-Based Manufacturing Improvedund erstanding and shared knowledge of the scientific foun dations for material andprocess interactions will suppor t optimizedprocess design and total understanding of complex transformations and interactions atthe micro and macro levels.

Modeling & Simulation: the Engineand Control Systems for Lean, Agile,Responsive Manufacturi ngModeling and simulation are emerging as key

technologies to support manufacturing in the21st centur y, and n o other technology offersmore p otential than M&S for improvingprod ucts, perfecting p rocesses, reducing de-sign-to-manufacturing cycle time, and red uc-ing produ ct realization costs. Althoug h spe-cialists currently use M&S tools on a case-specific basis to help d esign complex prod -ucts and processes, use of M&S tools otherthan basic compu ter-aided design/ engineer-


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Have instant, clear, accurate visibility intothe status and performance of their opera-tions.

Quickly evaluate issues and options to de-termine the best solutions.

Instantly prop agate changes to all parts of the enterprise, and automatically update theliving enterprise model.

Other specific benefits of the next-generationM&S systems and tools inherent to th e IMTRvision includ e:

Rapid evaluation of alternatives, trend s, andrisks, based on accurate d ata, to confident lypred ict the results of contemp lated actions.

Greatly shortened prod uct developmenttime and cost, by eliminating the need forphysical prototyping.

Rapid optimization of new product designs,processes and equipment, and business op-erations, to maximize efficiency and profit-ability while reducing all forms of waste

Autom atic produ cibility, affordability, and

other critical analyses, runn ing in real ornear-real time, and intelligent decision sup -port to ensure both the products and theprocesses used to create them are the bestthey can be.

Significant red uction of econom ical orderquan tities, enabling mass customizationto better meet the needs of individ ual cus-tomers w hile enhancing pr ofitability.

Fast, accurate exploration of ma ny m oreproduct and process design options, to in-crease value to the customer and redu ceconcept-to-prod uction time and cost.

Ubiquitous service throughout the enter-prise, enabled by low-cost, interoperabletools. This will also enable rapid, seamlessintegration of new sup ply chain relation-ships to pu rsue new opportunities.

Compr ehensive, globally accessible knowl-edge bases of validated plug-and-playmodels, simulations, and supporting toolsupon which all companies can d raw, thusgreatly reducing th e cost of acquiring an dimplementin g M&S capabilities.

Table 1 on th e following p age provid es asummary-level view of where we are today,from the stand point of the current state of artand p ractice, and w here we want to go. Thegoals reflected in the IMTR 2015 Visioncolumn encomp ass most of the goals identi-fied in th e IMTR Roadmap for Modeling &Simulation, and readers are encouraged toread the full document for a deeper under-standing of these requirements.

It is imp ortant to note th at there is a verywide range separating the current state of practice and state of the art. Many of thesystems and processes now being pioneeredby leading-edge comp anies are closely at-tun ed to th e IMTR vision, and it is our expec-tation th at these capabilities will evolve towid espread use over the next 5 to 10 years.

The Nuggets of Modeling &Simulation for ManufacturingThe IMTR Roadmap for Modeling & Simulationidentifies some 40 top-level goals and morethan 170 supporting requirements and tasksto meet the needs of future manufacturingenterpr ises. H owever, out of these goals andrequiremen ts there are 10 nuggets criticalcapabilities or attributes that un derp in theIMTR vision and wh ich offer the gr eatest re-tur n on investment by virtu e of their broadapp licability to indu stry:

Nu gget #1: Micro to Macro Continu umModeling A major draw back of currentprodu ct and process models and simula-tions is that they ar e generally valid only forthe exact parameters around which theywere bu ilt, and are not valid at larger scales.Future mod els will be infinitely scaleable,assuring th e ability to create models on amanag eable scale that are valid wh en ex-trapolated to the real world.

Nu gget #2: Science-Based Mod els Inte-grated with Living Know ledge/Experi-ence Bases The mod els and simulations of the future w ill be built on a found ation of deep u nderstand of first principles, provid-ing perfect fidelity with the real world theyare designed to emulate. They will be ableto adapt and learn based on real-world ex-perience, capturin g the insights and lessonslearned of their users.


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000Executive Summary

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Table 1.Modeling & Simulation: Where Are We Now, and Where are We Going?

Manufacturing Function Current State of Art/Practice IMTR 2015 VisionProduct Modeling & Simulation Functions

Physical Representation Solid models of nominal shapes; limited ability to accurately modelcomplex interfaces, many attributes represented by symbols & notes

Unable to capture design intent or product functionality; limitedability to translate design to actual product

Limited product data exchange or across different domains Complex tools requiring high skill & long processing times

Object-oriented and feature-based models scaleable from micro tomacro levels and containing all product info

Complete interoperability between physical models Direct linkage to prototyping systems Collaborative modeling & simulation using integrated environments

Performance Modeling of electrical performance more advanced than mechanicalperformance

Highly specialized applications with tremendous & complex compu-tational demands high cost & complexity

Poor understanding of underlying physics

Performance design advisors and fast automatic performance opti-

mization Performance modeling & assessment tools plug-compatible with

design systems Multivariate performance analysis

Cost/Affordability Bottoms-up cost modeling from component level; no linkage toactual, real-time data

Custom cost models or generic tools (e.g., spreadsheet apps or data-base-driven simulations); specialized tools tailorable to similar proc-esses with many variables

Cost data available on commodities & downstream life-cycle costs Performance-based cost modeling Enterprise-wide cost models

Producibility Limited to assessment based on parts count, number of part surfaces,or known chemistry; no tools for assessing non-physical factors

Lengthy simulation times limit number of alternatives

Producibility alternatives automatically modeled during all devel-opment phases; autonomous agents to track pro ducibility-relatedchanges for products

Producibility models interoperate with other technical & businessmodels

Life Cycle Considerations Little or no modeling & simulation of life cycle issues Limited modeling of environmental attributes (e.g., product green-

ness) Some modeling of product support costs

Environmental & support analytical modules included in or inter-faced to product M&S applications

All life-cycle considerations included in product models, such asrecycling, disassembly & disposal

Process Modeling & Simulation FunctionsMaterial Processing Excellent analytical M&S capabilities in continuous processing in-

dustries (e.g., chemicals); some knowledge-based advisory systemsin use

Good base of material models for simple & traditional materials;simplified models & assumptions; data from handbooks

Applications based on empirical data or past art; high costs &special skill needs limit use

Emerging base of material models for newer no ntraditional processes(e.g., composites)

Automated process model creation from design models & enterprisedata

Validated, science-based models for all materials Model repository for reuse Open, universal framework for M&S standards & model interope r-

ability Collaborative distributed analysis & simulation systems supporting

global distributed manufacturing enterprises

Assembly/Disassembly/Reassembly

Good electronics assembly modeling applications Assembly line balancing (workflow optimization) Tolerance & interference modeling in limited use Few standards

Immersive VR system for assembly modeling & simulation, withautomated optimization

Integrated links to production systems for real-time troubleshooting,change response, & optimization across enterprise & supply chain


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Table 1. (continued)Modeling & Simulation: Where Are We Now, and Where are We Going?

Manufacturing Function Current State of Art/Practice IMTR 2015 VisionQuality, Test & Evaluation Models from empirical data for statistical control

Limited modeling of dimensional metrology

Virtual system for test & evaluation modeling coupled to test &evaluation knowledge bases

Automated model generation from specificationsPackaging Product flow models coupled with part tracking systems

Models for packaging design for some industries (e.g., defense, food,chemicals)

On-line virtual system for modeling packaging, including environ-mental impacts

Remanufacture Limited, specialized applications for specific product types Existing process modeling apps used to evaluate remanufacturability

of designs (not tailored for remanufacturing)

Reverse engineering modules to optimize life-cycle performanceand re-use

Robust applications integrating all aspects of remanufacturing ininitial product and process design stages

Enterprise Modeling & Simulation FunctionsStrategic Positioning Little or no modeling & simulation

Limited use of simple, homegrown models

Strategic decision models with real-time data links Easy, transparent modeling & simulation

Market Assessment & Positioning Primarily use of spreadsheets Some market share modeling & gaming simulations

Domain specific models with links to external & internal informationsources

Extensive market assessment models & toolsRisk Management Little or no automated modeling

Spreadsheet-based models based on individual expertise

Domain & function specific risk models Risk assessment & avoidance models

Financial/Cost Management Spreadsheet-based financial modeling Deterministic cost models

Predictive cost modeling Integrated cost & profitability models

Resource Management Many tools for specific uses; expensive data collection No common standards or integration frameworks

Enterprise-wide resource models Extended enterprise resource models

Quality Management Limited cost of quality modeling Quality impact assessment & tradeoff tools Quality no longer a discriminator all excellent

Enterprise ArchitectureManagement

Little or no modeling Structured models (e.g., IDEF & GRAF)

Generic enterprise architectures, metrics & modeling tools Full enterprise architecture models

Extended Enterprise Management Little or no modeling Supply chain modeling using proprietary or custom systems

Techniques for modeling functions across the supply chain Automated knowledge management across extended enterprise

Operations ResourceManagement

Many tools available for specific functions or resources Large, complex, hierarchical models

Tools & standards for model building & integration In-depth resource management models

Performance Management Cost & schedule performance models Larger custom models

Accurate data collection techniques for model building Self-optimizing simulation models

Factory Operations Many domain-specific models Expensive & time-consuming systems

Data collection techniques, standards & frameworks Virtual factory models using real-time data

Facility InfrastructureManagement

Domain-specific systems Some ERP systems have infrastructure features

Standard taxonomies & generic infrastructure models Integrated physical control & performance models


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Nugget #3: M&S Is Rule, Not Exception M&S technology will evolve from a special-ized, application-specific troubleshootingtool to a ubiquitous capability that pervadesand supports all functions of the manufac-turing enterprise. Executives, managers,supervisors, and manufacturing staff willinteract with the manufacturing enterprisethrough a user-friendly virtual interface ontheir desktop PC to a living enterprise

model that links them to real-time informa-tion about all of the operations, activities,and processes relevant to their jobs. Prolif-eration of high-fidelity, generic product andprocess models, coupled with intelligentsoftware for creation and tuning of modelsand simulations, will make M&S tools inex-pensive and easy to use.

Nugget #4: Intelligent Design & AnalysisAdvisors Product and process developerswill tremendously increase the productiv-ity, speed, and quality of their work withaid of intelligent software-based advisorsthat assist in every step of the product reali-zation cycle. These advisors will draw onan ever-expending knowledge base of scien-

tific principles and captured experience(lessons learned) to help designers workaround obstacles, avoid false starts, and op-timize their work product at every stage of its evolution.

Nugget #5: M&S as Real-Time EnterpriseController As modeling and simulation

become pervasive, manufacturers will beable to build a real-time, accurate simula-tion model of the entire enterprise, includ-ing all of its products, processes, resources,assets, constraints, and requirements. In itsultimate form, the living enterprise modelwill be the control interface for all enter-prise operations, monitoring real-time per-formance and status of every operation.

Managers will interface with the enterprisemodel to evaluate performance, identify is-sues and concerns, and assess outcomes of contemplated actions, ensuring that enter-prise performance is continuously opti-mized in response to changing require-ments and conditions.

Nugget #6: Smart, Self-Learning Models Next-generation models and simulations

will understand their own needs, goals,and requirements, and will interact withother models and simulations and the en-terprise knowledge bases to continuouslyimprove their depth, fidelity, and perform-ance. Product models, for example, will besmart enough to optimize themselves forproducibility, maintainability, and similarattributes based on real-time access to in-formation on factors such as availability of

components and raw materials, shop capac-ity, and individual process equipment andunit operation capabilities and workloads.

Nugget #7: Open, Shared Repositories &Validation Centers The creation of sci-ence-based models and simulations forwidely used materials and processes willgive rise to the establishment of nationaland international libraries of validatedmodels and simulations that can be shared

by many manufacturers across different sec-tors. This will drastically reduce a manu-facturers cost and time in developing mod-els and simulations to support critical

business requirements. Open access tocommon process and product models and

M&S tools will also enable rapid integrationof new partners and supply chain membersto pursue new opportunities.

Nugget #8: Integrated, Robust Product &Process Models Supporting All Domains& Applications M&S will move from theproduct and process domains to support allfacets of the manufacturing enterprise.Product models will be robust, high-fidelityrepresentations that capture all relevant at-tributes of the product, from the molecularcomposition of its materials to the physicsof its interactions in the manufacturingprocess and in its real-world use. Manufac-turing and business process models willhave similar high fidelity, and all models

will be able to integrate to enable creation of macro models that accurately representend-to-end processes, collections of proc-esses, and the total enterprise. This will en-able users to accurately predict how the ef-fects of a change will ripple throughout theenterprise, and thus assure that all decisionsare made based on a clear understanding of advantages, disadvantages, risks, and prob-able outcomes.


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Nugget #9: Total, Seamless ModelInteroperability Future models and simu-lations will be transparently compatible,able to plug-and-play via self-describing in-terfaces, and require no outlay of resourcesfor integration or tuning. Every productand process model will understand its own

behavior, its own input needs, and its ownoutput capabilities, such that when a newelement is added to the system (e.g., a proc-

ess control sensor), it will negotiate with themodels of all other elements of the systemto fit in with no human assistance.

Nugget #10: Real-Time, Interactive, Per-formance-Based Models Future modelsand simulations will be linked via enter-prise information systems to all data theyneed to remain current based on changing

business considerations. Product models,for example, will be able to link to real-timematerial and labor cost databases so as toprovide continuous visibility of actualproduct costs and be able to alert productmanagers when a changed parameter (e.g.,increased price for a constituent material)

requires attention (e.g., a change to a lower-cost material).

Achievement of these cross-cutting goals willhave a major impact on manufacturing enter-prises, enabling them to: Reduce the cost of developing and manu-

facturing products Enhance product quality and reliability Reduce the time required to move new

products from concept to market Improve responsiveness to changes in cus-

tomer needs Enhance ability to establish competitive po-

sition and increase market share More effectively manage capital invest-

ments (and therefore, increase return on in-vestment).

Figure 1 illustrates how each of these attrib-utes is supported by each of the M&S Nug-gets.

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Areas ofBeneficial Impact

= Major Impact

M&S Nuggets

= M oderate Impact

1. Micro to Macro Continuum Modeling

2. Science-Based Models Integrated w/ Living Knowledge/Exp. Bases

3. M&S Is Rule, Not Exception

4. Intelli gent Design & Analysis Advisors

5. M&S as Real-Time Enterprise Controller

6. Smart, Self-Learning Models

7. O pen, Shared Repositories & Validation Centers

8. Integrated, Robust Product & Process Models for All Domains /Apps

9. Seamless Interoperability

10. Real-Time, Interactive, Performance-Based Models

Figure 1. Benefit s of the IMTR M&S Nuggets on Futur e Manufacturi ng Enterpr ises


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Next Steps: The Call to ActionNow that the IMTR project is delivering itsroadmaps, what next? How do we make theIMTR vision come alive? How do we movefrom plan to implementation?If you are a CEO or senior executive of amanufacturing firm or a manufacturing tech-nology organization, we want you to GETBEHIND THE PLAN. Read it. Have yoursenior staff members read it. Identify thosegoals and requirements that you think offerthe greatest benefit to your organization, and

join with other IMTR implementation part-ners to MAKE IT HAPPEN.

If you are a manufacturing technologist, wewant you to help MAKE IT WORK. Read theplan. Have your associates read it. Its full of great ideas, and even a few far-fetched ones.Have we missed something? If so, let usknow. But most importantly, identify thosechallenges that you can help meet, and workwith your sponsors to develop programs that

deliver the critical technologies. Many of thecapabilities identified in the roadmaps arealready in the pipeline; our challenge to youis to BRING THOSE CAPABILITIES HOMEand launch new programs to FILL THEGAPS. Seek opportunities to start or join theteams that will deliver the right solutions.


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Modeling & Simulation Roadmap 24 July 2000Section 1: Introduction

10


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1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 The IMTR ChallengeManufacturing is changing rapidly in the U.S. and around the world. The processes, equip-ment, and systems used to design and produce everything from automobiles to computer chipsare undergoing dramatic changes in response to new customer needs, competitive challenges,and emerging technologies. Recent advances in information systems, business practices, engi-neering techniques, and manufacturing science now enable companies to produce new and bet-ter products more quickly and at a much lower cost than ever before.Clearly, these innovations are driving a major transformation of the U.S. manufacturing base.Although this transformation is well underway, it is far from complete, and even greaterchanges can be expected in the future.Manufacturers, technology suppliers, and research institutions have a unique opportunity tolead and accelerate the transformation of the U.S. manufacturing infrastructure and enhance theeconomic well-being of the nation. While a tremendous volume of R&D resources is being ex-pended on developing and implementing new manufacturing technologies, it is clear that 1)there is much redundant effort being focused in a few key areas; 2) many manufacturing infra-structure issues that affect all of industry are receiving very little attention; and 3) huge invest-ments in proprietary solutions are either not delivering on their promises or are being renderedmoot by new technologies or unpredicted changes in the business environment.

While many industries have developed technology roadmaps for their specific business sectors,there has been no concerted effort to address technology requirements and associated barriersthat cut across multiple sectors. Many of the industry-specific plans mention cross-cutting in-frastructure needs, but the challenges they present are beyond the ability of any one group of companies to solve.

IS98-03

Widespread Availability& Distributionof Information

21st CenturyManufacturing

Environment

AcceleratingTechnological

Change

EnvironmentalReplenishing &

Resource Limitations

Increasing KnowledgeIntensity in Products,

Technology, Workforce

Rapidly ExpandingTechnology Access

Increasing WorkforceDiversity

Increasing CustomerExpectations

Globalization ofMarkets &

Competition

Figure 1.1-1. Forces Shaping the 21st Century Manufacturing Environment


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Recent studies such as the Next-Generation Manufacturing (NGM) project (see Appendix A)have highlighted the need for R&D in several important areas that affect the entire manufactur-ing community. However, a comprehensive plan does not exist to:

Define key technology goals that cut across all manufacturing sectors Provide focus for concentrated effort to achieve the goals Promote collaborative R&D in support of critical needs Move these developments from the laboratory to industrial use.

The IMTR initiative is providing that plan. IMTR is a focused effort, sponsored by the NationalInstitute of Standards and Technology (NIST), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Sci-ence Foundation (NSF), and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), to developa manufacturing R&D agenda that cross-cuts the diverse needs of government and industryacross all major manufacturing sectors. Leveraging work done by NGM, which published itsfinal report in early 1997, IMTR is conducting a structured process (see Appendix B) to definefuture manufacturing enterprise technology requirements and outline solution paths to meetthese requirements in four interrelated areas:

Information Systems for Manufacturing Modeling and Simulation Manufacturing Processes & Equipment Enterprise Integration.

Each IMTR study area correlates to one of the four technology-focused Imperatives for futuremanufacturers defined by the NGM project. Collectively, the four areas span all of the proc-esses and enabling technologies that support the modern manufacturing enterprise. There ishowever, inherent overlap among all four areas. Enterprise integration, for example, reliesheavily on information technologies to link widely distributed enterprise functions and opera-tions. Modeling and simulation, which deal with the representation and manipulation of data,are inextricably linked with many aspects of information standards and processing. Manufac-turing processes and equipment rely on modeling and simulation and on information systemsto perform their functions, particularly within the context of the integrated enterprise.

Recognizing these relationships, the IMTR project team has developed each of the roadmaps asa plan that can stand alone to the maximum extent possible, without redundancy. In eachdocument, however, we have included cross references to the other documents where support-ing goals and requirements are addressed.This report represents the key findings and recommendations in the area of Modeling & Simu-lation (M&S). The contents were developed by a core Roadmapping Project Team of eight indi-viduals operating under the guidance of a 27-person Working Group representing a diverse set

of industrial, governmental and academic organizations, with additional inputs from invitedreviewers and subject matter experts. To date, more than 100 individuals have contributed tothe contents of this volume.


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1.2 Modeling & Simulation Faster, Cheaper, BetterModeling and simulation 1 (M&S) areemerging as key technologies to supportmanufacturing in the 21st century, andno other technology offers greater pote n -tial for improving products, perfectingprocesses, redu c ing design-to-manufac-turing cycle time, and reducing the costof moving product from concept to d e -

livery . Although specialists currently useM&S tools on a case-specific basis to helpdesign complex products and processes,use of M&S tools other than basic com-puter-aided design/engineering (CAD/CAE) applications is largely limited tosolving specialized design problems.

The real value of M&S tools is their abil-ity to capture and represent informationto make confident predictions to driveproduct design, process design and exe-cution, and management of the enter-prise. As indicated in Figure 1.2-1, prod-uct and process development has histori-cally been accomplished by testing a de-sign to see how well it works, then modi-

fying the design and testing it again.This test/evaluate/modify phase con-sumes a vastly disproportionate shareof the time and cost required to move aproduct from concept to delivery.

The cost-time profile can be significantlyreduced by investing more in the initialdesign, by using M&S tools to optimizeproducts and processes in the virtualrealm before committing resources tophysical production.

Figure 1.2-2 reinforces the point. As indicated in the figure, the impact of making good deci-sions early in the product life cycle is very high, and declines steeply as a product matures.Conversely, while there are many tools (including M&S tools) to help manufacturers makegood decisions about a product late in the process, there are very few available early in theprocess where they are needed the most.Beyond design, simulation tools can greatly help in improving the efficiency of manufacturingprocesses. For example, being able to accurately simulate the performance of a device over arange of temperatures can eliminates the need for lengthy temperature testing and expensive

1 Model and Simulatio n are often used i nterchangeably or i n conj unction to describe representations of objects and processes.

Definiti ons of these terms vary widely, even in the M&S community . For purposes of this document, a model is a mathematicalrepresentation of an object (a part, a product, a machine, a facility, an organization, etc.) or a process (e.g., a specific manufacturingprocess or a business process). A mathematical model characteri zes the behavior of i ts subject through the form of the equati on(s)chosen, the variables and parameters present, and the ranges or values of those terms for which the model is considered valid.Simulation is a process for exercising mathematical models through simulated time wherein one or more models can be runwith varying values of input parameters to evaluate the effects of interaction among variables.

Time (Years)

R e

l a t i v e

C o s t

Test/Evaluate/Modify

EngineeringDemonstration

Initial Design

Figure 1.2-1. Iterative prototyping consumes billions of dollars and years of development for complex products.

M&S can drastically reduce those costs.

Opportunity V a l u e o

f M a k

i n g

B e s

t D e c

i s i o n s

Availability &Capability of Existing Tools

DetailedDesign

ProductionPreliminaryDesign

Figure 1.2-2. Few tools are available to help designersmake best decisions early in the product realization

cycle, where they provide the greatest benefit.


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test facilities. In the electronics industry, accurate models of the process of epitaxial growthhelp maximize production yields for microchip wafer fabrication. 2

The Boeing 777 and Dodge Viper (Figure 1.2-3) are outstanding examples of how modeling andsimulation tools, when applied as part of an integrated computer-based design and manufactur-ing environment, can greatly reduce the cost and time of bringing products to market. The 777,the first jetliner to be designed entirely with 3-D modeling technology, used techniques such asdigital preassembly and concurrent collaborative engineering to eliminate the need for full-scalemockups, improve quality, and reduce changes and errors all of which contributed to signifi-cant reductions in cost and time compared to conventional techniques.

The savings provided by M&S technology are significant. In the automotive industry, M&Stools have helped reduce the time required to move a new car design from the concept stage tothe production line from 3 years to about 14 months. In the defense industry, a key goal of theU.S. Air Forces Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program is to apply advanced and emerging M&Stechnologies to reduce development costs by 50%.

M&S tools and techniques are rapidly expanding beyond the domain of product design to be-come increasingly valuable in all aspects of manufacturing enterprise operation includingtools in business decision making, sales and marketing, customer service, and total product life-cycle management.

The IMTR Vision: Modeling & Simulation as the Engine and Control Systemsfor Lean, Agile, Responsive Manufacturing EnterprisesIn the IMTR vision, M&S tools will provide designers and managers the ability to trade off for

best solutions, create accurate and complete models of the product, establish processes that bestproduce that product, link those processes for optimization and integration of the total processenvironment, establish enterprise models that control the factory operations and help managethe enterprise, and have the capability to adapt to change in real time including intelligentcontrol and assisted decision makingThese M&S tools will couple evolutionary knowledge bases (that continuously learn using ge-netic principles) with science-based first principles models. This deep understanding will en-able continuum modeling of products and processes from the micro to macro level, enablingprediction of macro behavior that takes into account the cumulative effects of all factors at themicro level. Product and process models will be smart, self-correcting, learning systems thatadapt in real time based on changing conditions and past experience. M&S systems will pro-vide the knowledge and rules (constraints) to enable individuals to perform their functionswithin the enterprise to the best of their ability, with no specialized training.

Figure 1.2-3. The Boeing 777 (left) and the DodgeViper (above) both made extensive use of advancedmodeling and simulation tools to create state-of-theart products faster, better, and more affordably.

2 Photonics Manufacturing, NIST ATP 1998 Focused Program Paper for Simulation and Modeling; Philip Perconti, Program Manager.


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As described in the IMTR Roadmap for Information Systems, the M&S systems of the future will be interconnected and supported by a robust and seamless information infrastructure that inter-faces these systems to internal and external sources of real-time data. This will enable products,processes, and facilities to be designed, optimized and validated entirely in the virtual realm.Analytical tools that support the design process will be invoked automatically and run near-instantaneously in the background, and intelligent computer-based advisors will aid designersand managers in evaluating options, understanding issues, and making the best decisions.

This robust M&S infrastructure will enable creation and operation of totally integratedenterprise control systems, where product models, process models, and resource models inter-connected within an overarching master enterprise model interact to drive and control the liv-ing enterprise. These systems will be fed by real-time data drawn from the lowest levels andfarthest reaches of the enterprise, ensuring very high accuracy and fidelity of live operationsimulations and what-if scenarios. The desktop PCs and information reporting systems of to-day will be replaced by virtual cockpits where executives, managers, designers, and adminis-trators interface with the living enterprise model at the appropriate level to:

Have instant, clear, accurate visibility into the status and performance of their operationsand areas of responsibility.

Quickly evaluate issues and options to determine the best solutions. Instantly propagate change actions to all affected parts of the real-world enterprise, and

automatically update the living enterprise model.

Other specific benefits of the next-generation M&S systems and tools inherent to the IMTR vi-sion include:

Rapid evaluation of alternatives, trends, and risks, based on current and accurate data, toconfidently predict the results of contemplated actions.

Greatly shortened product development time and cost, by eliminating the need for physicalprototyping.

Rapid optimization of new product designs, production processes and equipment, and business operations, to maximize efficiency and profitability while reducing all forms of waste

Automatic producibility, affordability, and other critical analyses, running in real or near-real time, and intelligent decision support to ensure both the products and the processesused to create them are the best they can be.

Significant reduction of economical order quantities, enabling mass customization to bet-ter meet the needs of individual customers while enhancing profitability.

Fast, accurate exploration of many more product and process design options, to increasevalue to the customer and reduce concept-to-production time and cost.

Widely available service throughout the enterprise, enabled by low-cost, interoperable tools.This will also enable rapid, seamless integration of new partners and supply chain relation-ships to pursue new opportunities.

Comprehensive, globally accessible knowledge bases of validated plug-and-play models,simulations, and supporting tools upon which all companies can draw, thus greatly reduc-ing the cost of acquiring and implementing M&S capabilities.


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1.3 Maximizing Return on R&D Investments: The Nuggets of M&SThis document sets forth a high-level R&D plan for M&S technologies to support the IMTR vi-sion of lean, agile, seamlessly integrated manufacturing enterprises able to thrive in the com-petitive environment of the 21 st century. The IMTR M&S plan identifies some 40 top-level goalsand more than 170 supporting requirements and tasks to achieve the vision. However, out of these goals and requirements there are 10nuggets critical capabilities or attributes that underpin the IMTR vision and which offerthe greatest return on investment by virtue of

their broad applicability to industry:1. Micro to Macro Continuum Modeling

A major drawback of current product andprocess models and simulations is thatthey are generally valid only for the exactparameters around which they were built,and are not valid at larger scales. Futuremodels will be infinitely scaleable, assur-ing the ability to create models on a man-ageable scale that are valid when extrapo-lated to the real world.

2. Science-Based Models Integrated withLiving Knowledge/Experience Bases The models and simulations of the futurewill be built on a foundation of deep un-derstand of first principles, providing per-

fect fidelity with the real world they aredesigned to emulate. They will be able toadapt and learn based on real-world expe-rience, capturing the insights and lessonslearned of their users.

3. M&S Is Rule, Not Exception M&S tech-nology will evolve from a specialized, ap-plication-specific tool to a ubiquitous ca-pability that pervades all functions of themanufacturing enterprise. Executives,managers, supervisors, and manufacturingstaff will interact with the manufacturingenterprise through a user-friendly virtualinterface on their desktop PC to a livingenterprise model that links them to real-time information about all of the operations,

activities, and processes relevant to their jobs. Proliferation of high-fidelity, generic prod-uct and process models, coupled with intelligent software for creation and tuning of mod-els and simulations, will make M&S tools inexpensive and easy to use.

4. Intelligent Design & Analysis Advisors Product and process developers will tremen-dously increase the productivity, speed, and quality of their work with aid of intelligentsoftware-based advisors that assist in every step of the product realization cycle. Theseadvisors will draw on an ever-expending knowledge base of scientific principles and cap-tured experience (lessons learned) to help designers work around obstacles, avoid falsestarts, and optimize their work product at every stage of its evolution.

Rethinking the Benefits:The New View of M&S Investments

Perhaps the biggest inhibitor to widespread modelingand simulation in manufacturing is the perception of its costs. Historically, M&S tools were expensive.Computing platforms had to be high-end Unix work-stations because of the need for rapid computationand high-resolution graphic displays. Software wasexpensive because of the effort required to develop it,and the limited size of the market. Highly trainedprofessionals were required to run the systems be-cause the tools were not well integrated and becauseexpert judgment was required to interpret the results.At the same time, companies perceived that theknowledge gained from M&S analyses was usually notcritical to their operations and that the benefit-to-costratio was small compared to other manufacturingtechnology investments.Several factors are changing this picture. The explo-sion of low-cost, high-performance desktop computingpower, coupled with growth of easier-to-use, morecapable applications, is greatly enhancing the cost-effectiveness and value of M&S systems. Althoughmany problems remain to be solved to achieve seam-less integration between CAD systems and analyticaltools, interaction between CAD and M&S systems hasimproved considerably.The cost of NOT performing relevant analyses is fre -quently ignored. New products and processes can bedesigned without using modeling and simulation; wehave operated in that mode for years. However, if one considers the costs of reengineering a product andits manufacturing processes using traditional trial anderror practices, the benefit-to-cost ratio of M&S toolsthat can optimize products and processes before pro-duction is potentially very large. M&S can also reducethe time it takes to get new products to market, whichaccelerates return on investment and growth of mar-ket share.


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5. M&S as Real-Time Enterprise Controller As modeling and simulation become perva-sive, manufacturers will be able to build a real-time, accurate simulation model of the en-tire enterprise, including all of its products, processes, resources, assets, constraints, andrequirements. In its ultimate form, the living enterprise model will be the control interfacefor all enterprise operations, monitoring real-time performance and status of every opera-tion. Managers will interface with the enterprise model to evaluate performance, identifyissues and concerns, and assess outcomes of contemplated actions, ensuring that enterpriseperformance is continuously optimized in response to changing requirements.

6. Smart, Self-Learning Models Next-generation models and simulations will under-stand their own needs, goals, and requirements, and will interact with other models andthe enterprise knowledge bases to continuously improve their depth, fidelity, and per-formance. Product models, for example, will be smart enough to optimize themselvesfor producibility, maintainability, and similar attributes based on real-time access to infor-mation on factors such as availability of components and raw materials, shop capacity, andindividual equipment and unit operation capabilities and workloads.

7. Open, Shared Repositories & Validation Centers The creation of science-based modelsand simulations for widely used materials and processes will give rise to the establishmentof national and international libraries of validated models and simulations that can beshared by many manufacturers across different sectors. This will drastically reduce amanufacturers cost and time in developing models and simulations to support critical

business requirements. Open access to common process and product models and M&Stools will also enable rapid integration of new partners and supply chain members to pur-sue new business opportunities.

8. Integrated, Robust Product & Process Models Supporting All Domains & Applications M&S will move from the product and process domains to support all facets of the manu-

facturing enterprise. Product models will be robust, high-fidelity representations that cap-ture all relevant attributes of the product, from the molecular composition of its materialsto the physics of its interactions in the manufacturing process and in its real-world use.Manufacturing and business process models will have similar high fidelity, and all modelswill be able to integrate to enable creation of macro models that accurately representend-to-end processes, collections of processes, and the total enterprise. This will enable us-ers to accurately predict how the effects of a change will ripple throughout the enterprise,and thus assure that all decisions are made based on a clear understanding of advantages,disadvantages, risks, and probable outcomes.

9. Total, Seamless Model Interoperability Future models will be transparently compatible,able to plug-and-play via self-describing interfaces, and require no outlay of resources forintegration or tuning. Every product and process model will understand its own behavior,its own input needs, and its own output capabilities, such that when a new element isadded to the system (e.g., a process control sensor), it will negotiate with the models of allother elements of the system to fit in with no human assistance.

10. Real-Time, Interactive, Performance-Based Models Future models and simulations will

be linked via enterprise information systems to all data they need to remain current basedon changing business considerations. Product models, for example, will be able to link toreal-time material and labor cost databases so as to provide continuous visibility of actualproduct costs and be able to alert product managers when a changed parameter (e.g., in-creased price for a material) requires attention (e.g., a change to a lower-cost material).

Table 1.3-1 provides an overview of the M&S Nuggets and identifies supporting requirementsaddressed through this document. Achievement of the Nuggets and the cross-cutting goals,requirements, and tasks that support them will better enable manufacturing enterprises to:


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Table 1.3-1.IM TR Nuggets for Modeling & Simulati on R&D

M&S Nugget Benefits of Implementation Supporting Requirements* SeeSection

1. Micro to MacroContinuum Modeling

Robust, i nfini tely scaleable product, process, and businessmodels able to predict macro-level behaviors from micro-level attributes, and to accurately and quickly propagateeffects of changes at macro level down to affected microlevels

Continuum Modeling Capabilit y Functional Specifications Derivation Integrated Life-Cycle Material Behavior Modeling Continuum Quality Modeling

3.3.13.3.33.3.4

4.3.1.6

2. Science-Based Mo dels

Integrated with LivingKnowledge/Experi enceBases

High-precision, high-fidelity models continuously incor-

porating accurate data and best knowledge for accuratesimulation and confident prediction

Information-Centric Product Model Objects

Integrated Life-Cycle Cost Modeling Science-Based Material Modeling Knowledge Base Analytical Systems Integration

2.3.1

2.3.33.3.13.3.1

3. M&S Is Rule, NotException

Widespread use of M&S tools to support all functions inall kinds of companies in all manufacturing industries willdrastically reduce the cost of developing and using thetools, and enable seamless operation of di stributed, ex -tended manufacturing enterprises

Virtual Product/Process Planning Structure Integrated Packaging Modeling Quality, Test & Evaluation Certification Models Qualitative Forecasting Tools Performance Data Integration & Assessment

3.3.23.3.43.3.3

4.3.1.24.3.2.2

4. Intell igent Design &Analysis Advisors

Automatic execution of analytical functions and designsuggestions based on best captured knowledge and expe-rience, shortens product/process development times andprevents false starts

Intelligent Models Automatic Performance Optimization High-Fidelity, Multi-Model Analytical Applications Contact Interface Management Material Assessment Tools Discontinuity Event Modeling

2.3.12.3.23.3.13.3.13.3.5

4.3.1.25. M&S as Real-Time

Enterpri se Contro ll erHigh-level enterprise model linked to all process, product,and business models provides instant visibility of all as-pects of enterprise performance, enables fast, accuratesimulation to evaluate impacts of change

Direct Product Realization Market Data Model Integration Manufacturing Capacity/Capabili ty Representation Adaptive, Real-Time Process/Equipment Control Models

Enterprise Multi -Model Integration Multi -View Factory Vision

2.3.12.3.32.3.43.3.2

4.3.1.84.3.2.3

* This i s not an all -inclu sive l ist of all IMTR requirements that support each nugget capability, but rather provid es a representative sample of major R&D requirements.Many requirements and tasks also support multiple nuggets.


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Table 1.3-1.IMTR Nuggets for M odeling & Simulation R&D (cont inued)

M&S Nugget Benefits of Implementation Supporting Requirements* SeeSection

6. Smart, Self-LearningModels

Continuously increasing accuracy and depth of underlyingdata and knowledge enables true continuous improve-ment in all model-driven applications and operations

Control Program Autocreation Intelligent M aterial Separation Modules Plug & Play Resource Models Change Requirements Identifi cation Embedded Process & Equipment Simulators Self-Assessment & Learning Tools Automated Reconfiguration Capabili ty

3.3.23.3.5

4.3.1.54.3.1.54.3.2.14.3.2.24.3.2.2

7. Open, Shared Repositori es& Validation Centers

Drastically reduces cost and time of developing accurate,robust models; all users contribute to and benefit fromrefinements

Vendor-Supplied Models Interactive Knowledge Base & Validation Methodology Packaging Criteria Materials Knowledge Base Interface Process Knowl edge Base Interface Boundary Conditi ons Database Interface Plug & Play Enterprise Process Model Library Infrastructure Model Library

2.3.13.3.13.3.43.3.43.3.43.3.4

4.3.1.84.3.2.4

8. Int egrated, Robust Product& Process Models Support-ing All Domains& Applications

Enables all disciplines to realize benefits of M&Stools,supports real-time enterprise control through linking andintegration of individual product/process/business modelsto create high-fidelity enterprise metamodel

Model Federation Single Product Model Representation Plug & Play Cost Models Strategic Decision Modeling Real-Time Model Data Links

2.3.12.3.12.3.3

4.3.1.14.3.1.1

9. Total , Seamless ModelInteroperability

Infinitely composable, transparent plug & play modelsenable instant integration of models at any level prod-uct, process, facility/operation, enterprise, and extendedenterprise

Interoperability Methods Hierarchical Models Multi -Source Data Integration Multi -Resource Optimization Extended Factory Integration & Opti mization

2.3.12.3.1

4.3.1.54.3.2.14.3.2.1

10. Real-Time, Interactive,Performance-BasedModels

Supports real-time control of processes and operationsand rapid, accurate evaluation of issues and opti ons

Interoperability Methods Robust Product Modeling Standards Intelligent Models Generic Performance Attribute Representation Distributed Enterprise Assembly Planning System

2.3.12.3.12.3.12.3.23.3.2

* This is not an all-inclusive list of all IMTR requirements that support each nugget capability, but rather provides a representative sample of major R&D requirements.Many requirements and tasks also support multiple nuggets.


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Evaluate alternatives, options tren ds, and r isks, based on curr ent and accurate d ata, to pre-dict with h igh confidence the results of prod uct, process, and enterprise decision actions.

Reduce produ ct development time and cost by eliminating the need for physical prototypes. Rapidly optimize new product designs, production processes, and business operations, to

maximize efficiency and profitability while greatly redu cing all forms of waste. Autom atically run prod ucibility, affordability, and other critical analyses in real or n ear-real

time, aided by intelligent decision supp ort to ensure both p rodu cts and processes are thebest they can be.

Reduce the economical order qu antity of prod uction lot sizes, enabling m ass customiza-tion to better meet the needs and w ants of ind ividual customers wh ile enhan cing enter-prise profitability.

Provide ub iquitous service through out all enterprise operations, enabled by low-cost, com-pletely interoperable tools. This will also enable easy, seamless integration of new businessrelationships to pursu e new opportunities.

Figur e 1.3-1 illustrates how each of these attributes is sup ported by each of the M&S Nu ggets.

As a first step tow ards interrelating the key finding s of the three IMTR Roadmap s, we have de-veloped a series of nu gget roadm aps that m ap the nu ggets for each document aga inst all of the goals across all three docum ents. Individu al roadmap s for the Information Systems nuggetsare presented on th e following pages.

Figure 1.3-1. Each of the M&S Nuggets makes signif icant cont ri buti ons to improvedmanufacturing enterprise performance.


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Broad-Based Material Modeling Framework (3.3.1 Goal 1)

Long-Term(Over 10 Years)

Mid-Term(3-10 Years)

Near-Term(0-3 Years)

Roadmap for Modeling & Simulation Nugget 1 Micro to Macro Continuum Modeling

Flexible, Complex Representation (2.3.1 Goal 1)

New Materials Creation (3.3 Goal 2)

Precise, Science-Based Mat l Transformation (4.3.1 Goal 1)

One-Step Net Shaping (4.3.2 Goal 4)

Zero Hard Tooling (4.3.2 Goal 5)

Nontraditional Material Removal Technologies (4.3.3 Goal 8)

Microto Macro

ContinuumModeling

EnterpriseIntegrationRoadmap

Processes &EquipmentRoadmap

Modeling &SimulationRoadmap

InformationSystems

Roadmap

Seamless Data & Application Interoperability (2.3.1 Goal 1)

Interoperable, Hierarchical M&S Systems (2.3.2 Goal 7)

Common Reference Architectures & Frameworks (4.3.1 Goal 1)

On-D emand Access to Hi gh-Capacity Processors (4.3.2 Goal 4)

Note : Referenced Sections of the respective IMTR Roadmap documents are indicated in parentheses


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Roadmap for M&S Nugget 2 Science-Based Models Integrated w/ Living Knowledge/Experience Bases

Integrated Prototyping Systems (2.3.2 Goal 10)EnterpriseIntegrationRoadmap



InformationSystems

Roadmap

Integrated Life-Cycle Modeling Capability (2.3.5 Goal 1)

Enterprise-Wide Product Cost Models (2.3.3 Goal 2)

Robust Performance Modeling Environment (2.3.2 Goal 1)

Broad-Based Material Modeling Framework (3.3.1 Goal 1)

Integrated Packaging Modeling (3.3.4 Goal 1)

Integrated Mat l Stream Modeling (3.3.5 Goal 1)

Real-Time Resource Modeling System (4.3.1.5 Goal 1)

Design for Life Cycle Support (2.3.1 Goal 1)

New Materials Creation (3.3 Goal 2)

New Production Methods for Materials (3.3 Goal 3)

Precise, Science-Based Mat l Transformation Processes (4.3.1 Goal 1)

Manufacturing Knowledge Repository (5.3.3 Goal 2)

Real-Time Access to All Relevant Internal & External Data (5.3.2 Goal 3)

Info Filtering & Analysis Tech (5.3.2 Goal 2)

Automated Models of Product Functions & Performance (2.3.2 Goal 3)

Integrated Knowledge Repositories (2.3.1 Goal 3)

Science-BasedModels Integ

w/ LivingExperience

Base

Cross-Functional Knowledge Representation (4.3.4 Goal 1)

Reuse & Recycle Clearinghouses (2.3.6 Goal 1)



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Roadmap for Modeling & Simulation Nugget 3 M&S is Rule, Not Exception

Enterprise Financial Simulation Environment (4.3.1.4 Goal 1)

Risk Assessment & Analysis Toolset (4.3.1.3 Goal 1)

Timely, Accurate M&S for Strategic Positioning (4.3.1.1 Goal 1)

Remanufacturing Modeling Tool Suite (3.3.5 Goal 3)

Integrated Assembly (5.3 Goal 1)

Real-Time, Closed-Loop Control (6.3 Goal 2)

Integrated Packaging Design (7.3 Goal 1)

Integ Life-Cycle Matl Behavior Modeling (3.3.4 Goal 2)

Total Service Modeling Environment (2.3.5 Goal 2)

Enterprise-Wide Product Cost Models (2.3.3 Goal 2)

Distributed Product Modeling Collaboration Environment (2.3.1 Goal 2)

Integrated Product & Process Development (3.2.1 Goal 2)

Tools & Engineering Services (2.3.1 Goal 4)

Material Design Advisors (2.3.1 Goal 2)

Design Environments & Frameworks (2.3.1 Goal 1)

M&S isRule, NotException

Enterprise-Wide Workflow Management (2.3.1 Goal 3)EnterpriseIntegrationRoadmap



InformationSystems

Roadmap

Interoperable, Hierarchical M&S Systems (2.3.2 Goal 7)



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Roadmap for Modeling & Simulation Nugget 4 Intelligent Design & Analysis Advisors

Integrated Packaging Design (7.3 Goal 1)

Integrated Assembly (5.3 Goal 1)

Lean, Agile, Flexible Shaping (4.3.2 Goal 6)

Remanufacturing Modeling Tool Suite (3.3.5 Goal 3)

Collaborative Analytical Systems (3.3.1 Goal 2)

Integrated Life-Cycle Modeling Capability (2.3.5 Goal 1)

Parallel Multi-Attribute Producibility Evaluation (2.3.4 Goal 2)

Robust Performance Modeling Environment (2.3.2 Goal 1)

Enterprise Integration Tools (4.3.1 Goal 2)

Integrated Product & Process Development (3.3.1 Goal 2)

Tools & Engineering Services (2.3.1 Goal 4)

Material Design Advisors (2.3.1 Goal 2)

Standard Design Convention Advisors (2.3.2 Goal 3)EnterpriseIntegrationRoadmap



InformationSystems

Roadmap

IntelligentDesign &AnalysisAdvisors

Direct Product Model Design (2.3.1 Goal 3)

Top-Level Optimization of Product/Process/Resource (2.3.2 Goal 8)

Collaborative Design Environment (2.3.2 Goal 5)

Design for Life-Cycle Support (2.3.1 Goal 1)

Fundamental Process Understanding (4.3.4 Goal 1)



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Roadmap for Modeling & Simulation Nugget 5 M&S as Real-Time Enterprise Controller

Enterprise-Wide Workflow Management (2.3.1 Goal 3)

EnterpriseIntegrationRoadmap

Processes &Equipment

Roadmap


InformationSystems

Roadmap

Knowledge-Based Micro Planners (3.3.2 Goal 2)

Shop Floor Control (3.3.4 Goal 1)

Control Around Critical Parameters (3.3.3 Goal 1)

Dynamic Resource Allocation (3.3.2 Goal 3)

Real-Time Access to All Relevant Internal & External Data (5.3.2 Goal 3)

Assembly Process Control Simulation (3.3.2 Goal 2)

Real-Time Resource Modeling System (4.3.1.5 Goal 1)

Extended Enterprise Management System (4.3.1.8 Goal 1)

Real-Time Factory Model (4.3.2.1 Goal 1)

Total Factory Control Model (4.3.2.3 Goal 1)

Integrated Factory Monitoring & Control (4.3.2.3 Goal 2)

Integrated Control System (2.3.3 Goal 2)

100% Availability (2.3.4 Goal 1)

Seamless Equipment & Facility Integration into Enterprise (2.3.4 Goal 2)

Flexible, Reconfigurable Distributed Enterprise Operations (2.3.4 Goal 3)

Intelligent Control Systems (2.3.5 Goal 2)

Real-Time, Closed-Loop Co

M&S Final.doc - 07 MS Roadmap

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