MRV Demonstration Study (DS) using a Model Project 2012 ...

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MRV Demonstration Study (DS) using a Model Project 2012

Final Report

「Modal Shift through Construction of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System」

（implemented by JWA & ALMEC Consortium for MRV Demonstration Study）

Study Partners OTP (Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning)

SRTET (SRT Electrified Train Co., Ltd)

Location of Project/Activity

Bangkok metropolitan region, Thailand

Category of Project/Activity

Transport

Description of Project/Activity

This project and activities will establish MRT networks in Bangkok

metropolitan region in Thailand, which is expected to lead to a modal shift

and a reduction in traffic congestion on the roads, thus reducing GHG

emissions and generating offset credits.

Eligibility Criteria The project introduces a new urban MRT, including its extension.

The MRT is for passenger transport.

The MRT is a rail-based transport system.

There is a traditional transportation system along the MRT routes in the

reference scenario.

Technology transfers and/or financial support from Japan and/or other

developed countries are provided for the construction or operation of the

MRT.

Reference Scenario and Project/Activity Boundary

Reference scenario: The reference scenario shall be Business as Usual (BaU).

Boundary: The boundary for the effect of the passenger modal shift shall be

the MRT line used for a trip from entry station to exit station by MRT

passengers. It excludes access transportation from origin to station (access)

and from station to destination (egress) such as ACM0016. The boundary for

the effect of the change in vehicle speed shall be the roads affected by the

establishment of the MRT line. This refers only to the roads running parallel

on both sides of the MRT line.

Calculation Method Options

Calculation option 1-1: Passenger modal shift (No interview survey required)

: Simplified method in which reference emissions are calculated without

conducting a survey of MRT passengers (conservative mode of

transportation in reference scenario is set.)

Calculation option 1-2: Passenger modal shift (Interview survey required)

: A method in which a questionnaire is given to MRT passengers and

reference emissions are calculated based on actual conditions. It is

presented in conjunction with the conservative option of reducing the

number of samples in the riders’ questionnaire.

Calculation option 2: Change in vehicle speed

: A method in which reference emissions are calculated by conducting a

survey on the traffic count/travel speed on specific roads in the vicinity.

Default Values set in Methodology

A default factor was examined for the “share of passengers using the

transport mode in the reference scenario” and the “CO2 emissions factor per

passenger kilometer for transport mode i.” In calculation option 1-1, the

share of passengers for the most conservative transport mode in terms of CO2

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emissions per passenger kilometer (for example, buses) shall be set at 100%

in calculating the share of passengers using the transport mode in the

reference scenario; the default factor shall not be set in the calculation option

1-2.

The default factor used for the CO2 emission factor per passenger kilometer

for transport mode i shall be the lower of the literature data presented in the

MRV methodology in both calculation option 1-1 and 1-2.

Monitoring Method Using the simplest calculation, the MRT operator will monitor within the

scope of regular operations.

Parameter Monitoring method Frequency

MRT traffic volume

(passenger km/year)

Aggregate data provided

by MRT operator Annually

Number of MRT passengers

(passengers/year)



Average distance traveled by

MRT passenger

(km)

Data provided by MRT

operator Annually

Electricity consumption

associated with MRT

operations

(MWh/year)



Result of Monitoring Activity

Monitoring activities were carried out as follows in August 2012.

Questionnaire: More than 6,000 questionnaires were collected in an

interview survey of passengers using the City Line on the ARL Station

platform and premises.

Traffic count survey: A survey was carried out in 20 locations near ARL.

Vehicle travel speed survey: Vehicles equipped with GPS drove on roads

running parallel to the north and south of ARL and obtained data.

Occupancy rate survey: The occupancy rate for passenger cars, two-wheeled

vehicles, taxis and buses was surveyed in the section of the blue line that is to

be extended in order to ascertain the occupancy rate in the absence of MRT.

GHG Emissions and its Reductions

Emissions reductions on the ARL’s City Line were calculated using each

calculation option.

Calculation

option 1-1

Calculation

option 1-2

Calculation

option 2

Project emissions

(tCO2/year) 6,302 6,302 152,430

Reference emissions

(tCO2/year) 11,618 24,167 155,872

Reduction in emissions

(tCO2/year) 5,316 17,865 3,442

Method and Result of Verification

The third-party verification covered the emissions reductions calculated

based on data provided by SRTET and monitoring data. The inspection

organization made observations about the traceability of the data, among

other issues. SRTET is not managing the data on emissions reductions that

could be used for credits, which is an issue to address going forward.

Environmental Impacts

This project is a priority project to achieve the GHG emission reduction

targets in the transportation sector. Moreover, appropriate environmental

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impact assessments were carried out since the project fell under the remit of

Thailand’s environmental impact assessment program; this assessment

determined that there would be no negative impact on the environment.

Promotion of Japanese Technology

Technology manufactured in Japan has the edge in areas on the software side

as well as the infrastructure side. Japan’s expertise is expected to be utilized

in designing measures to improve the bus route for better access to the

railway station, redevelop the front of the station, including the construction

of a plaza in front of the station, enable joint use via Sony’s FeliCa system,

and address climatic disasters such as the 2011 flood.

Sustainable Development in Host Country

NOx reductions as follows can be expected through ARL operations,

estimated from monitoring results.

Reference emissions

(t-NOx/year)

Project emissions

(t-NOx/year)

Reduction in emissions

(t-NOx/year)

177.0 15.8 161.2

MRV DS Report in 2012

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Study Title: MRV Demonstration Study using a Model Project

“Modal Shift through Construction of Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System”

Study Entity: JWA & ALMEC Consortium for MRV Demonstration Study

1． Study Implementation Scheme Climate Consulting, LLC: This company is in charge of the MRV methodology related to the

passenger modal shift.

OTP (Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning): As part of Thailand’s Ministry of Transport,

OTP instructs that persons working in the transport sector related to this survey receive cooperation.

SRTET (SRT Electrified Train Co., Ltd): SRTET is a subsidiary of the State Railway of Thailand

(SRT) and the operator of the line targeted for the demonstration. SRTET provided cooperation and

data on operations during the monitoring of the Airport Rail Link (ARL).

Asian Transportation Research Society (ATRANS): This society carried out monitoring based on a

monitoring plan drafted by JWA and ALMEC.

2．Overview of Project/Activity

(1) Description of Project/Activity Contents: Item Explanation

Host country and region Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA), Thailand, and the surrounding region

(Bangkok Metropolitan Region, or BMR)

Description of project

and activities Development of railway within city to reduce GHG emissions by taking

measures to address the traffic volume and improve the traffic stream

through a modal shift within the boundary. ARL is the city railway targeted

for the project.

Scale of installation As of September 2012, a 28km distance between Phaya Thai and

Suvarnabhumi Airport. An extension in the direction of the former

international airport is planned.

Start of operations August 23, 2010

Status of operations ARL is a railway line used by people commuting to work and school in

central Bangkok, and passengers transferring from the SRT short-range line,

which runs parallel to ARL, also use ARL. ARL runs the City Line, which

stops at every station and is used for commutes to school and work, and the

Express Line, which is used for access to the city center and the airport. The

City Line runs from 6am to 12am, and both railway tracks are run at

15-minute intervals. There are approximately 40,000 users per day.

Fares are set with local users in mind, with a fare of 15 baht for the shortest

ride and a maximum of 45 baht. There is also a discount program for Thai

people only in which the far for the conventional railway line is free when

the passenger changes to a conventional line.

Technology adopted in

the project and

activities

Railway technology

Project and activity

owner SRT

Project and activities In BMA and BMR, the development of MRT will result in a modal shift


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contributing to

reduction in emissions

from the existing transportation mode to MRT, contributing to a reduction in

GHG emissions. Moreover, easing traffic congestion on roads running

parallel to the targeted MRT will increase the travel speed of cars and other

vehicles, which will help to reduce GHG emissions.

(2) Situations of Host Country: Work on upgrading the railway system is underway, based on the Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan in

Bangkok Metropolitan Region (M-MAP) devised by the Ministry of Transport. OTP developed a

master plan for a sustainable transportation system and mitigating climate change, which was

approved by the Ministry of Transport in October 2012. In addition to planning climate change

measures to be funded by its own government budget, Thailand is proactive in implementing NAMA

(Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action) using support from developed countries.

(3) Complementarity of the CDM: Metro Delhi and Mumbai Metro One are the only two Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

projects involving a modal shift in passengers through the development of a city railway, as with this

project and activities. The estimated emissions reduction is 529,043tCO2/year for Metro Delhi and

195,547tCO2/year for Mumbai Metro One. Since these projects were registered under CDM using the

ACM0016 methodology for MRT projects, the project participants must monitor it using

questionnaires, travel speed surveys and other means. Monitoring costs through ACM0016 total about

17 million yen, which is extremely high relative to the credit revenue that can be obtained from its

emissions reductions.

Moreover, in applying the common practice analysis to demonstrate additionality, ACM0016 stipulates

that “the proposed project activity is regarded as common practice if the MRT diffusion rate (the

number of cities with 1 million inhabitations or more that have adopted MRT/number of cities with 1

million inhabitants or more) in all cities in the host country that contain more than 1 million

inhabitants is 50% or more.” This means that many developing countries that are expected to build city

railways in the future will be unable to demonstrate additionality.

With JCM/BOCM, the problems with CDM related to the construction of city railways such as the

above can be resolved with a conservative approach by explaining the additional emissions reductions

using more realistic monitoring and eligibility criteria. This study, excluding access transportations

from origin to station and from station to destination and assuming same distances in baseline and

project, realized simplified surveys and the implementation of more realistic and practical monitoring,

and also provided options of conservative share of passengers using transport mode.

Since it is clear that it is difficult to implement projects and activities that can be expected to

significantly reduce GHG emissions under the CDM framework, implementing them under the

JCM/BOCM framework instead leads to further progress with projects and activities upgrading city

railways and is thus significant.

(4) Initial Investment for the Model Project:

According to M-MAP, the total investment amount related to ARL construction is 750,000

million baht, including land expropriation (reference exchange rate: 1 baht = 2.6 yen).

Information such as the initial investment amounts and construction work duration for other

planning routes can be confirmed in M-MAP and the EIA reports for the respective lines.

3. Contents of the Study

(1) Issues to be Addressed in the Study:

The MRV methodology used with this project and activities that is related to the modal shift

effect was developed in the previous fiscal year’s survey, and its demonstration required

negotiations with Thai government organizations, MRT operators and monitoring

organizations. These related organizations had a shared awareness that sharing the survey

results in the previous fiscal year’s survey and demonstrating the MRV methodology was the

most effective method to quantitatively ascertain the GHG emissions reduction. However, a


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methodology for the effect of change in vehicle speed on the roads had to be developed for

this survey, and the following issues were identified. Ensuring accuracy and conservativeness and evaluating uncertainty

Validity of factoring in effect of change in vehicle speed on roads to emissions reductions

Identification of surrounding roads used to factor in effect of change in vehicle speed on roads

Setting the speed on surrounding roads in reference scenario

Examining rebound impact

Method for traffic volume survey and vehicle travel speed survey to formulate the relationship

between traffic volume and vehicle travel speed in a road section (QV model).

(2) Process to Solve the Issues in the Study: An on-site survey was carried out to compile information on policy in Thailand, gather the existing

materials needed to demonstrate the MRV methodology and carry out monitoring.

Five on-site surveys were conducted until the preliminary report was submitted. Table 3.1 provides an

overview of the on-site survey. The respective on-site survey reports are provided separately. The

monitoring survey based on the MRV methodology in the separate materials was carried out in August.

The monitoring that was carried out is described in “(7) Monitoring Method.” Table 3.2 provides an

overview of other survey content. Details on the examination are provided in the corresponding

sections.

Table 3.1: Overview of On-Site Survey

Implementation Period Overview

First (July 8-14)

Submission of request for cooperation with this fiscal year’s

survey to Thailand’s Ministry of Transport, visits to related

organizations, requests for data, etc.

Second (July 22-28) On-site survey of roads around ARL, the target of the traffic

count survey and vehicle travel speed survey, etc.

Third (August 15-19, 23-26)

Discussion of monitoring plan, confirmation of implementation

conditions, compilation of information related to MRT

upgrades, etc.

Fourth (October 9-13) Interim reports, workshop meetings, visits to verification

bodies, etc.

Fifth (November 27 - December

1)

Workshops held, visits to verification bodies, etc.

Sixth (February 6 – February 9) Workshops held to share outputs, etc.

Table 3.2: Survey Components and Overview of Examination

Survey Components Overview of Examination

Survey related to eligibility

criteria for application of MRV

methodology

Eligibility criteria for methodology were considered, taking into

account the results of this fiscal year’s on-site survey.

Survey on options for

calculation options

Several options for calculation options were examined (method

for calculating the GHG emissions reduction effect achieved

through modal shift and change in vehicle speed) so as to

propose a simple but serviceable calculation option.

Survey on information and data

needed for calculations

In the on-site survey, related Thai organizations were asked to

provide data, data was sequentially provided, and the content of

this data was confirmed.

Survey related to project and

activity boundaries

An appropriate boundary was examined for the proposed

calculation option. In the method calculating the effect of the

passenger modal shift in reducing GHG emissions, the relevant

MRT line was set as the boundary, and in the method calculating

the effect of change in vehicle speed in reducing GHG

emissions, the roads affected by the upgrades to the relevant


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MRT were set as the boundary.

Survey on reference scenario A reference scenario was examined for the proposed calculation

option. The reference scenario is the condition in the absence of

MRT.

Survey on monitoring

implementation and monitoring

method

In the aforementioned on-site survey, monitoring was carried out

through ATRANS after confirming the monitoring plan. This

confirmed the feasibility of implementation in the host country.

Survey on setting default values

for parameter

Data on occupancy rate was collected from existing literature to

set the default value.

4. Results of MRV Demonstration Study

(1) GHG Emission Reduction Effects by the Implementation of Project/Activity: Upgrading MRT resulted in a modal shift and reduced the traffic count on surrounding roads, and can

be expected to reduce GHG emissions within the boundary. Accordingly, these two types of effects are

the target in the MRV methodology.

Passenger Modal Shift

An MRV methodology that would enhance the project’s feasibility was considered and revised based

on ACM0016. Important parameters in calculating the reference emissions volume were the transport

mode that would have been used in the absence of MRT (hereinafter, “reference transport mode”) and

the distance traveled (hereinafter, “reference distance traveled”) and the CO2 emissions factor per

passenger km. A questionnaire given to passengers can be used as the specific method for the

reference transport mode, but a simplified method not using a questionnaire was proposed for the

MRV methodology. The possibility of using the distance traveled by MRT passengers as the reference

distance traveled in order to simplify the procedure was also examined. The validity of these

simplified options was examined by analyzing the monitoring survey results. The project emissions

can be calculated by multiply the electricity consumption during MRT operations by the grid CO2

emission factor.

Change in Vehicle Speed

The parameters used to calculate the reference emissions and the project emissions are the CO2

emission factors for the traffic volume and the travel speed. Of these, setting the travel speed for the

reference scenario is important. The relationship between traffic volume and vehicle travel speed in a

road section (QV model) that would experience an effect of traffic congestion mitigation and that is

travelled by people who would likely drive in the absence of MRT is developed based on traffic

volume and travel speed survey performed prior to project start. Vehicle travel speed is estimated from

the QV model using the traffic volume/travel speed survey.

The traffic volume and travel speed for the project emissions are set using the traffic volume/travel

speed survey. Nevertheless, the use of a method in which travel speed was calculated using the QV

model is also considered.

An overview of the MRV methodology and the ACM0016 used as a reference is shown in Table 4.1.


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Table 4.1: Overview of MRV Methodology

MRV Methodology ACM0016

Eligibility

Criteria

This methodology applies only to projects

that fully satisfy all of the following

criteria.

The project introduces a new urban

MRT, including its extension. The MRT

is for passenger transport.

The MRT is a rail-based transport

system.

There is a traditional transportation

system along the MRT routes in the

reference scenario.

Technology transfers and/or financial

support from Japan and/or other

developed countries are provided for the

construction or operation of the MRT.

The eligibility criteria are as follows:

The project constructs a new

rail-based infrastructure or

segregated bus lanes.

The segregated bus lanes in the Bus

Rapid Transit (BRT) system or the

rail-based MRTS replace existing

bus routes operating under mixed

traffic conditions.

The methodology is not applicable

for operational improvements to an

existing bus lane or rail-based

MRTS (for example, new or larger

buses).


for bus lanes replacing an existing

rail-based system, i.e., the existing

urban or suburban rail infrastructure

must remain fully (along its full

length) operational.

The methodology is applicable for

passenger transport only.

Any fuels, including (liquefied)

gaseous fuels or biofuel blends as

well as electricity can be used in the

baseline or project case.


for the implementation of air and

water-based transport systems.

The methodology is applicable for

urban or suburban trips. The

methodology is not applicable for

inter-urban transport.

Calculation

Option

The operator may choose the option in

which the modal shift effect and the

change in vehicle speed effect are

calculated. A passenger questionnaire may

be selected or not in measuring the modal

shift effect.

The stipulated calculation option is

followed.

Boundary Passenger Modal Shift

Only the MRT section

The boundary encompasses all of the

transport modes used by the MRT user

from the trip origin to the destination.

Change in Vehicle Speed

The boundary is the roads affected by the

upgrades to the MRT line. Out of roads

running parallel on both sides of the MRT

line, the roads which are more close to the

MRT line and arterial roads.

The effect of traffic congestion

mitigation is not included in the

calculation.


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Reference

Scenario

Emissions


(MRT traffic volume [passenger km])

x (share of passengers using transport

mode i in the reference scenario) x

(CO2 emission factor for transport

mode i)

MRT traffic volume (passenger km):

This is used when the data can be

obtained directly from the railway

company. When it cannot be obtained,

it is calculated using the equation

(Number of MRT passengers x

average distance traveled by MRT

passengers). The reference travel

distance can be calculated in a

simplified process using the average

distance traveled by MRT passengers

rather than the actual distance

traveled by individual passengers

(from origin to destination).

Share of passengers using transport

mode i in reference scenario:

Calculation Op.1-1: Without conducting a

questionnaire, the transport mode with a

relatively conservative emissions factor

(for example, buses) is used.

Calculation Op.1-2: Average proportion of

full sample is calculated from

questionnaire.

CO2 emission factor for transport

mode i: Essentially, the project

specific value is used, but a default

value can be used when this is not

available.


A survey is conducted to

determine the trip distance (from

trip origin to destination) per

mode of transport that would

have taken place in the baseline

for each surveyed passenger. The

baseline emissions are multiplied

by an individual expansion factor

to improve the accuracy of the

survey results.

Change in Vehicle Speed (Distance of

affected road section ) x (project traffic

volume) x (CO2 emission factor by

vehicle in reference scenario vehicle

speed)

Distance of affected road section :

Measured on map

Project traffic volume: The traffic

volume survey results obtained in

monitoring are used.

CO2 emission factor by vehicle in

reference scenario vehicle speed:

Default value is used.

The vehicle speed in the reference

scenario is set using the QV model. The

QV model is devised from the traffic

volume survey and travel speed survey

conducted via monitoring.



calculation.

Project

Emissions


・ (Electricity consumed in MRT

operation) x (Grid CO2 emission factor)


In addition to emissions from

MRT, emissions from the trip


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*The average distance traveled by MRT

passengers is used as the reference travel

distance, so emissions resulting from the

trip origin to the entry station and from the

exit station to the final destination are not

included.

origin to the entry station and

from the exit station to the final

destination are included.

Change in Vehicle Speed (Distance of

affected road section ) x (project

traffic volume) x (CO2 emission

factor by vehicle in reference scenario

vehicle speed)

The factors are set in the same way as

the reference scenario emissions.

Project vehicle speed is set using the

travel speed survey conducted as part

of monitoring.



calculation.

Leakage Not applicable

*The effect of traffic congestion

mitigation is included in the reference

scenario emissions and project emissions.

Emissions due to changes in the

load factor of taxis and buses and

emissions due to reduced

congestion on affected roads,

leading to higher average vehicle

speed, are included. Leakage

emissions are only counted when

they exceed zero.

(2) Eligibility Criteria for MRV Methodology Application: The eligibility criteria for applying the MRV methodology is as follows:

The project introduces a new urban MRT, including its extension.

The MRT is for passenger transport.

The MRT is a rail-based transport system.

There is a traditional transportation system along the MRT routes in the reference scenario.

Technology transfers and/or financial support from Japan and/or other developed countries are

provided for the construction or operation of the MRT.

The MRV methodology is only used with MRT intended to transport passengers within a city, and is

not applicable with MRT between cities. Applicable projects include new construction or extensions of

existing lines, but measures intended to augment traffic are not applicable. Freight transport is also not

eligible. MRT includes railways, subways, LRT, and monorail, but does not include vehicles such as

BRT. Moreover, there must be either a bus system or public transportation system under the current

situation or reference scenario, and the aim is to shift passengers from these modes of transport to

MRT. The project must also include technical or financial support from Japan or other sources for the

construction of MRT, or transfers of technology and expertise related to MRT operations.

(3) Calculation Method Options: The modal shift effect brought about by upgrades to MRT is used to measure the GHG reduction effect,

but the operator could optionally factor the traffic congestion mitigation effect into the emission

reduction effect.

There are two options for calculating the modal shift effect: a simplified, conservative method

(Calculation option 1-1) in which a passenger survey—the most cost- and labor-intensive aspect of

calculating reference emissions—is not carried out and the method in which a questionnaire is given

(Calculation option 1-2).

Calculation option 1-1: Passenger modal shift (No interview survey required)

Simplified method in which reference emissions are calculated without conducting a survey of MRT

passengers (conservative mode of transportation in reference scenario is set)

Calculation option 1-2: Passenger modal shift (Interview survey required)


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A method in which a questionnaire is given to MRT passengers and reference emissions are calculated

based on actual conditions. It is presented in conjunction with the conservative option of reducing the

number of samples in the interview survey

Calculation option 2: Change in vehicle speed A method in which reference emissions are calculated

by conducting a survey on the traffic count/travel speed on specific roads in the vicinity.

Passenger modal shift is based on conservative and

simplified approachMethod1-1

Method 1-2and

Method 2

Method 1-2

Reference emissions include changes in

vehicle speed

YES

YES

NO

NO

(4) Necessary Data for Calculation: Table 4.2: Information and Data for Calculations

Information, Data

Monitoring (M),

Project Specific Value

(S),

Default Value (D)

Status of Upgrades in

Project and Activities Note

MRT traffic volume

(passenger km/year):

BPKMy

M Can be compiled within

scope of SRTET’s

normal operations

Calculated on a

monthly basis

Number of MRT

passengers

(passengers/year): Py

M

*Not necessary when

MRT traffic volume can

be obtained

Already ascertained

within scope of

SRTET’s normal

operations

Calculated on a daily

basis

Average distance

traveled by MRT

passengers

(km): BTDPy

M

*Not necessary when

MRT traffic volume can

be obtained

Can be calculated within

scope of SRTET’s

normal operations

Calculated on a

monthly basis

Share of passengers

using the transport

mode in the

reference scenario

(%): MSi

D (Calculation Op. 1-1)

or S (Calculation Op.

1-2)

Default value or project

specific value from

passenger questionnaire

-

Electricity

consumption

associated with MRT

operation

(MWh/year): ECMRT,y

M Already ascertained

within scope of

SRTET’s normal

operations

Calculated on a

monthly basis

CO2 emission factor

per passenger

S or D Data from PCD1 is used

for vehicle emission

The host country’s

value is used, but if it

1 Thailand’s Pollution Control Department


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kilometer for

transport mode i

(gCO2/passenger

km): EFPKM,i

factor (gCO2/km). This

survey and past surveys

are used for occupancy

rate.

cannot be obtained,

the default value

provided in the

methodology is used.

Grid CO2 emission

factor (tCO2/MWh):

EFgrid

S National data provided

by host country

Project (host

country) specific

value

Distance of affected

road section i (km):

Di

S Map measurement -

Number of vehicle

type j in road section

i at time h

(vehicle/h):

TVPJ,h,i,j

M Set by traffic volume

survey

Per-hour data on

weekdays/weekends

Travel speed of

vehicle type j in road

section i at time h

(km/h): VPJ,h,i

M Set using the travel

speed survey, or

calculated using the QV

model. The QV model is

devised from the traffic

volume survey and

travel speed survey

conducted via

monitoring.

Per-hour data on

weekdays/weekends

Vehicle speed in

reference scenario in

road section i at time

h

(km/h): VBS,h,i

M Calculated using the QV

model. The QV model is

devised from the traffic

volume survey and

travel speed survey

conducted via

monitoring.

Per-hour data

CO2 emission factor

at vehicle travel

speed v in vehicle

type j

(gCO2/vehicle km):

EF(v)KM,j

S or D Value provided by PCD

can be used.

The host country’s

value is used, but if it

cannot be obtained,

international data2

shall be used as the

default value.

(5) Default Value(s) Set in MRV Methodology:

① Default Value

The “share of passengers using the transport mode in the reference scenario” and the “CO2 emission

factor for transport mode i” were examined. Table 4.3 provides an overview of the default value

presented in the MRV methodology.

Table 4.3: Default Value

Parameter Default Value

Share of passengers using

the transport mode in the

reference scenario

Calculation option 1-1:

The share of passengers for the most conservative transport mode in

terms of CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer (for example, buses)

2 For example, EMEP/EEA emission inventory guidebook-200.


＜13＞

(%): MSi shall be set at 100% in calculating the share of passengers using the

transport mode in the reference scenario.


A default value is not set

CO2 emissions factor per

passenger kilometer for

transport mode i

(gCO2/passenger km):

EFPKM,i

Same for calculation options 1-1 and 1-2:

The value given in Table 4.6.2 in the detailed version shall be the

default value (using the lower value).

② Project Specific Value

The project specific value (the fixed value for each project decided in advance or set after the project

begins) was considered for the “share of passengers using the transport mode in the reference scenario,”

“CO2 emissions factor per passenger kilometer for transport mode i,” “grid CO2 emission factor,” and

“CO2 emission factor at vehicle travel speed v in vehicle type j.” Table 4.4 provides an overview of the

methods used to set the project specific values presented in the MRV methodology.

Table 4.4: Method for Setting the Project Specific Value

Parameter Project Specific Value

Share of passengers using

the transport mode in the

reference scenario

(%): MSi


If conservativeness can be ensured in terms of emissions under objective

opinions by local experts, the project specific value can be set using any of

these methods. Calculation option 1-2 can be used if this is not possible.

Other survey results for the relevant line, etc.

Share of passengers using mode of transport in city overall


Set the share of passengers specific to the project using a passenger

questionnaire (within one year of the project’s launch)

The method for setting the share of passengers using a passenger

questionnaire is laid out in the detailed version of “4.7.4 Method for

Setting Share of Passengers Using the Transport Mode in the Reference

Scenario (Questionnaire Aggregation Method) ”.

The case of the relevant project is described in the detailed version of

Table 4.7.3.

CO2 emissions factor per

passenger kilometer for

transport mode i (gCO2/

passenger km): EFPKM,i

The project specific value is set using the host country’s literature data

and measurements.

This project’s project specific value is shown in the detailed version of

Table 4.7.15.

Grid CO2 emission factor

(tCO2/MWh): EFgrid

Host country’s publicly released value is used.

This project’s project specific value is 0.5113 tCO2/MWh.3

CO2 emission factor at

vehicle travel speed v in

vehicle type j

(gCO2/vehicles km):

Host country’s publicly released value is used.

3 Summary Report: The Study of emission factor for an electricity system in Thailand 2010 (Publish Date: 30 December

2011), Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (2010)


＜14＞

EF(v)KM,j

(6) Setting of Reference Scenario and Project/Activity Boundary:

① Setting the Reference Scenario

The Reference Scenario is the scenario that assumes the absence of the MRT in the future. This study

set the Reference Scenario by reviewing the evaluation of the following measures expected to affect

business as usual (BaU) based on the information collected through this study. Additionally, if the

introduction of biofuels and fuel regulations were set as the Reference Scenario, the default value as

well as the project specific value would be set conservatively, thereby the Reference emissions might

be set conservatively.

BRT introduction

Usage of alternative transport mode including realignment of bas routes

Change to share

Biofuel trends

Fuel regulations

In this study, these measures were evaluated as likely effects on the Reference Scenario. As a result,

there are many uncertainties in these measures, and it is difficult to determine a specific scenario at the

present. These measures need to be evaluated whether they should be reflected into the Reference

Scenario when the project is implemented. Accordingly, it was determined that BaU would be

appropriate for the Reference Scenario of this study.

② Setting Boundaries

When setting boundaries for ACM0016, which can be applied to MRT projects, the transports covered

in the survey are (1) MRT lines, (2) transport used from trip origin to MRT and from MRT to trip

destination, (3) transport on surrounding roads. In the absence of MRT, the calculation option for

emissions caused by the transport method likely to be used in the section of the MRT line traveled will

differ depending on the calculation target selected.

Table 4.5: Summary of Boundary Setting

Calculation

Option Boundary Type of GHG and Source of Emissions

Calculation

option 1-1

and 1-2

MRT line used for a trip from entry

station to exit station by MRT

passengers. It excludes access

transportation from origin to station and

from station to destination such as

ACM0016.

In the absence of MRT, the CO2

emissions from the transport mode

that the passenger likely used (not

including transport used from trip

origin to MRT and from MRT to trip

destination)

CO2 emissions resulting from MRT

operations

Calculation

option 2

Roads affected by the

construction/upgrade of the MRT line.

Out of roads running parallel on both

sides of the MRT line, the roads which

are more close to the MRT line and

arterial roads.

CO2 emissions from cars traveling the

relevant section of road

(7) Monitoring Methods: The summary version describes monitoring methods in the most simplified calculations.


＜15＞

Table 4.6: Monitoring Parameters (Calculation Option 1-1)

Parameter Monitoring

Method

Monitoring

Frequency

Possibility of Implementation in

Host Country QA/QC

MRT traffic

volume

(passenger

km/year):

BPKMy

Aggregate data

provided by MRT

operator

*If it cannot be

obtained,

estimated using Py

and BTDPy

Annually Calculated within scope of SRT and

MRTA’s normal operations.

In this study, estimated from Py and

BTDPy.

Number of

MRT

passengers

(passengers/y

ear): Py

Aggregate data

provided by MRT

operator

*Only if BPKMy

cannot be obtained

Annually

(calculated

every 15

minutes)

Ascertained within scope of SRT

and MRTA’s normal operations.

SRTET, the target of this study,

collects the data every 15 minutes

using “the Automatic Fare

Collection System” and calculates

daily data.

Checked

against

SRT’s

public data

(annual

report, etc.)

Average

distance

traveled by

MRT

passengers

(km): BTDPy

Data provided by

MRT operator

*Only if BPKMy

cannot be obtained

Annually Calculated within scope of SRT and

MRTA’s normal operations.


calculates the data from the

distance traveled by each passenger

using “the Automatic Fare

Collection System.”

Electricity

consumption

associated

with MRT

operation

(MWh/year):

ECMRT,y

Aggregate data

provided by MRT

operator

Annually

(Collected

on a

monthly

basis)

Ascertained within scope of SRT

and MRTA’s normal operations.


uses the data provided by the

Metropolitan Electricity Authority,

which inspects use every month and

issues an invoice.

① Default Value

The “share of passengers using transport mode i in the reference scenario in year y (%): MSi,y” was set

at 100% for buses, which have a conservative emission factor, in Table 4.8. Two-wheeled vehicles and

tuk-tuk have lower emission factors than buses, but in Thailand, it is not realistic to set the share for

these at 100% and accordingly the share of buses was set at 100%.

② Project Specific Value

The value provided in Table 4.8 was used for the “CO2 emission factor for transport mode i,” and the

Thai government’s official figure of 0.5113 tCO2/MWh was used for the “grid CO2 emission factor.”


＜16＞

Table 4.7: Project specific value for CO2 emission factor per passenger kilometer for transport mode i

CO2 Emission Factor

for Transport Mode i

(gCO2/km): EFKM,i

Occupancy

Rate

(people): ORi

CO2 Emission Factor per Passenger

kilometer for Transport Mode i

(gCO2/passenger km): EFPKM,i

Bus 1150.1 24.2 47.5

Two-wheeled vehicles 38.2 1.3 29.4

Passenger cars 170.2 1.5 113.5

Taxis 156.6 0.8 195.8

Tuk-tuk 76.5 2.0 38.3

Railway - - 25.2

Source: EFKM,i : Emission Factor of Carbon Dioxide from In-Use Vehicles in Thailand, Sutthicha Nilrit and Pantawat

Sampanpanish, Modern Applied Science; Vol. 6, No. 8; 2012.

ORi : Set based on monitoring survey (August 2012). The value for tuk-tuk is the notional value in the OTP survey.

Note: When setting the EFKM,i for the respective transport modes, efforts were made to ensure that the emission factor is

conservative.

Buses: The factor for diesel was used (most conservative); two-wheeled vehicles: the factor for Gasoline 91 was used (most

conservative); passenger vehicles: the factor for Gasoline 91 was used (most conservative with the exception of gas-based

fuels; moreover, the proportion of gas-based fuels used in passenger cars is low); taxis: factor for LPG was used (most

conservative of all the fuels; the majority of taxis use LPG or CNG.)

(8) Quantification of GHG Emissions and its Reductions:

① Calculation Option Emissions reductions were calculated using calculation option 1-1, calculation option 1-2 or

calculation option 2.

② Applicable Lines ARL’s City Line (the Express Line is not included) is the line covered in calculations of GHG

emission reductions.

③ Applicable Period GHG emission reductions were calculated from October 2011 to September 2012, when the most

recent data could be obtained, and includes the period in which monitoring was carried out.

④ Data used in Calculations

Table 4.8: Data used in Calculations

Parameter

Monitoring (M),


(S), Default Value (D)

Value Note

Number of MRT

Passengers

(passenger/year): Py

M 13,656,586 SRT aggregate value

(one-year period from

October 2011 –

September 2012)

Average distance

traveled by MRT

passengers

(km): BTDPy

M 17.9 SRT aggregate value

Share of passengers

using transport mode i

in the reference

scenario in year y

(%): MSi,y

D (calculation option

1-1)

Bus: 100.0 Default value


＜17＞

S (calculation option

1-2)

Bus: 32.2

Two-wheeled

vehicles: 1.6

Passenger cars:

24.7

Taxis: 26.4

Tuk-tuk: 0.2

Railway: 13.2

Passenger questionnaire

results (August 2012)

Electricity

consumption

associated with MRT

operation (MWh/year):

ECMRT,y

M 12,325 SRT aggregate value

(one-year period from

October 2011 –

September 2012)

CO2 emission factor

per passenger

kilometer for transport

mode i

(gCO2/passenger km):

EFPKM,i

S Bus: 47.5

Two-wheeled

vehicles: 29.4

Passenger cars:

113.5

Taxis: 195.8

Tuk-tuk: 38.3

Railway: 25.2

Calculated from PCD

report value and results of

occupancy rate survey

(August 2012)

Grid CO2 emission

factor (tCO2/MWh):

EFgrid

S 0.5113 Thai government’s

official value4

Table 4.9: Data Used in Calculations (Change in Vehicle Speed)

Parameter

Monitoring (M),


(S), Default Value (D)

Value Note

Distance of affected

road section i

(km): Di

S 1. PTH-2.RPR: 1.2 km

2. RPR-3.MAS: 2.2

km

3. MAS-4.RKH: 4.2

km

4. RKH-5.HUM: 4.9

km

5. HUM-6.BTC: 5.0

km

6. BTC-7.LKB: 6.0

km

7. LKB-8.SVB: 1.4

km

Map measurement

The section of track is set

for the distance between

each ARL station.

Number of vehicle

type j in road

section i at time h

(vehicle/h): TVPJ,h,i,j

M Traffic volume at

Rama 9 off of the

Motorway for each

cross-section direction,

time period, and type

of vehicle

Results of traffic count

survey (August 2012)

Travel speed in

road section i at

time h

(km/h): VPJ,h,i

M Travel speed in road

section at Rama 9 off

of the Motorway for

each cross-section

Results of traffic speed

survey (August 2012)

4 Summary Report : The Study of emission factor for an electricity system in Thailand 2010 (Publish Date: 30 December

2011), Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (2010)


＜18＞

direction and time

period

Vehicle speed in

reference scenario

in road section i at

time h

(km/h): VBS,h,i

M Travel speed in road

section at Rama 9 off

of the Motorway for

each cross-section

direction and time

period

The vehicle speed in the

reference scenario is set

using the QV model. The

QV model is devised from

the traffic volume survey

and travel speed survey

conducted via monitoring

(August 2012).

The traffic volume

substituted in the QV

model is calculated using

the OD between stations

for ARL passengers and

the share of transport

modes in the reference

scenario (refer to graph in

detailed version).

CO2 emission

factor at vehicle

travel speed v of

vehicle type j in

road section i at

time h

(gCO2/vehicle km):

EF(v)KM,j

S or D Refer to the section

entitled “4.7 Method

for Setting Project

Specific Value” in

detailed version.

PCD value

⑤ Calculation Results Calculation Target Equation

Calculation

Option

1-1

Reference

Emissions

yeartCO

EFMSBTDPPREi

iPKMyiyyyMD

/618,11

10

2

6

,,,

Project

Emissions yeartCOEFECPE gridyMRTyMRT /302,6 2,,

Emission

Reductions yeartCO

PEREPEREER yMRTyMDyyy

/316,5302,6618,11 2

,,

Calculation

Option

1-2

Reference

Emissions

yeartCO

EFMSBTDPPREi

iPKMyiyyyMD

/167,24

10

2

6

,,,

Project

Emissions yeartCOEFECPE gridyMRTyMRT /302,6 2,,

Emission

Reductions yeartCO

PEREPEREER yMRTyMDyyy

/865,17302,6167,24 2

,,

Calculation

Option

2

Reference

Emissions

yeartCO

vEFTVDRElh i j

jihKMBSjihPJiyCC

/872,155

36510)(

2

246

,,,,,,,

Project

Emissions

yeartCO

vEFTVDPElh i j

jihKMPJjihPJiyCC

/430,152

36510)(

2

246

,,,,,,,


＜19＞

Emission

Reductions yeartCOPEREER yyy /442,3 2

⑥ Potential for Emission Reductions in Bangkok Overall (Modal Shift Effect) Case 1: The share of passengers using transport mode i in the reference scenario assumes that buses

account for 100% of the share. This is a fictitious scenario that makes it easier to implement the

project and reduces monitoring costs. Emissions in the reference scenario are assessed extremely

conservatively, but it enables the costs and labor involved in monitoring to be significantly reduced.

Case 2: The share of passengers using transport mode i in the reference scenario is set using the survey

results for ARL. ARL results cannot necessarily be applied to other lines, but were used in this survey

because it is difficult to survey all lines.

Table 4.10: Overview of Emission Reductions (ERy: tCO2/year)

Case 1 Case 2

Average value from 2014 to 2029 309,038 1,014,866

(9) Verification of GHG Emission Reductions:

① Reason for Selecting Verification Organization It was determined that either a designated operational entity (DOE) accredited by the CDM with an

office in Thailand or an ISO-accredited organization would be selected as the verification organization.

In this study, a CDM-accredited DOE was chosen, specifically Lloyd’s Register Quality Assurance

Limited (LRQA), which conducts CDM verifications in Thailand and neighboring countries.

② Verification Method The third-party verification through the MRV methodology examines the project specific value,

monitoring value and the resulting emission reductions, from the data listed in “4.5 Information and

Data for Calculations.” Data for the most recent one-year period provided by SRTET is examined in

the verification.

The following information was provided to the verification organization as necessary evidence for the

verification.

Monitoring report: Includes monitoring parameter, monitoring frequency, QA/QC information

and other information

MRV methodology, calculation sheets: Version 1 is attached to the interim report

PDD: Simplified PDD in J-VER format

Calculation option subject to verification: Three calculation options stipulated in the MRV

methodology

Other materials indicating reasonable grounds: Materials indicating reasonable grounds such

information pointing to the validity of the monitoring period, GPS calibration information used in

the traffic speed survey, management of electricity consumption by SRTET, etc.

③ Verification Results The following issue was given from the implementation of the third-party verification in this study.

The Verification Manual for the Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism Demonstration/Feasibility Study

programme aims to simplify the verification process to the extent possible based on issues from CDM.

Monitoring parameters shown in the calculation option 1-1 of this methodology would be satisfied by

only the data from normal activities of the railway company, and thereby the simplified verification

could be realized.

However, when assuming the certification of emission reductions in the BOCM project, there is a risk

that emission reductions which are certified by the simplified verification comparing to CDM are

inferior in terms of the credibility. In addition, to verify the GHG emission reductions in the project

rigorously, the verifier requests detailed evidences same as CDM in order to ensure the credibility, and

therefore it might cause a verification method not to be simple. In this study, also, detailed evidences

were requested from the verifier.

The verifier made the following recommendations to improve the project.


＜20＞

Improve the traceability of data activity flow from its source to aggregated data.

Improve the transparency of all calculation spreadsheets by providing linkages to source data and

applied equations.

Improve the data management system with internal self-verification controls (i.e., QA/QC) and

put in place appropriate control systems and methodologies to ensure the robustness, effectiveness, accuracy, completeness, consistency and timeliness of its data collection and management systems.

Improve its existing monitoring plan and ensure that they describe comprehensively the

requirements of the Monitoring Manual for Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism

Demonstration/Feasibility study Programme.

(10) Ensuring Environmental Integrity: The environmental improvements are significant, including the alleviation of air pollution due to the

alleviation of traffic congestion, which is included in the MRV methodology. The congestion

mitigation effect can be ascertained by ongoing monitoring of traffic volume. Moreover, the effect of

improvements in air pollution can be ascertained by air pollution monitoring stations in Bangkok. The

negative environmental effects would be the environmental impact during ARL’s construction and the

noise pollution resulting from ARL’s operation. These environmental impacts are avoided by

implementing an environmental impact assessment.

(11) How to Promote the Dissemination of Japanese Technologies: Competition with other countries in terms of MRT infrastructure is extremely harsh. However,

Japan-made technology has advantages on the software side.

Japan’s expertise is expected to be utilized in designing measures to improve the bus route for better

access to the railway station, redevelop the front of the station, including the construction of a plaza in

front of the station, enable joint use via Sony’s FeliCa system, and address climatic disasters such as

the 2011 flood.

(12) Prospects and Challenges for Similar Project/Activity Implementation: Calculations of emission reductions targeting MRT in M-MAP overall in the MRV methodology

indicate that major emissions reductions can be expected. However, there are several issues in using

the JCM/BOCM framework for MRT.

Cabinet approval of JCM/BOCM in Thailand

Establishment of a data management system by a railway company that can satisfy third-party

verification

5. Contribution to Sustainable Development in Host Country Last fiscal year’s study quantitatively determined that the construction of an MRT network had great

potential for improving air quality in the Bangkok metropolitan region. This fiscal year’s study used

actual monitoring results to estimate the effect that the construction of these rail lines would have in

reducing air pollution (NOx).

Calculations using the monitoring results showed that ARL operations could be expected to reduce

NOx as follows:

Reference emissions

(t-NOx/year)

Project emissions

(t-NOx/year)

Emission reductions

(t-NOx/year)

177.0 15.8 161.2

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