MPU September 2008 080904
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MPU September 2008 080904
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MPU September 2008 080904. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of MPU September 2008 080904
MPU September
2008080904
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent quarterly averages
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04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
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790%75%50%Repo rate
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
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690%75%50%CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
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690%75%50%GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally adjusted data
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7MPR 2008:2
MPU September 2008
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbank´s forecast.
Figure 5. Number of employedThousands of persons, seasonally adjusted data
4100
4200
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4200
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4700Employed, aged 15-74Employed, aged 16-64MPU September 2008MPR 2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbanks forecast.
Figure 6. CPIAnnual percentage change
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5MPU September 2008
MPR 2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 7. CPI, CPIF och CPIXAnnual percentage change
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5CPICPIFCPIX
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 8. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly average
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
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6MPU September 2008MPR 2008:2
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbank forecast.
Figure 9. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel, future prices
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110
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140Outcome
Average up to and including 28-08-2008 (MPU september 2008)Average up to and including 27-06-2008 (MPR 2008:2)
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the RiksbankNote. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average.
Figure 10. Real interest ratePer cent, quarterly average
-1.0
-0.5
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3.0OutcomeMPU September 2008MPR 2008:2
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbank forecast.
Figure 11. CPIX excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change
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Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 12. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
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3GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Table 1. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2007 2008 2009 2010
CPI 2.2 3.9 (3.9) 3.2 (3.5) 2.0 (2.3)
CPIX 1.2 2.9 (3.0) 2.6 (2.8) 1.7 (2.0)
CPIX excl. energy 1.5 1.9 (2.0) 2.0 (2.2) 1.9 (2.2)
CPIF 1.5 3.1 (3.1) 2.9 (3.1) 2.0 (2.3)
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month figures
Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11
CPI 2.2 4.4 (4.6) 2.7 (3.0) 1.9 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1)
CPIX 1.0 3.6 (3.8) 2.2 (2.4) 1.7 (2.0) 1.7 (1.9)
CPIX excl. energy 1.4 2.2 (2.4) 2.0 (2.2) 1.9 (2.2) 1.8 (2.0)
CPIF 1.3 3.7 (3.9) 2.5 (2.7) 1.9 (2.2) 2.0 (2.1)
Table 3. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly averages, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Source: The Riksbank
Q 2 2008 Q 3 2008 Q 4 2008 Q 3 2009 Q 3 2010 Q 3 2011
Repo rate 4.25 4.5 (4.5) 4.7 (4.8) 4.6 (4.9) 4.3 (4.6) 4.3 (4.4)
Table 4. Summary of financial forecasts
Per cent, annual average, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2007 2008 2009 2010
Repo rate 3.5 4.4 (4.4) 4.6 (4.9) 4.3 (4.6) 10-year rate 4.2 4.2 (4.3) 4.6 (4.7) 4.8 (5.0) Exchange rate, TCW index, 19 November 1992=100 125.2 123.4 (122.8) 122.2 (121.9) 121.9 (121.9)
General government net lending* 3.5 (3.4) 2.9 (3.1) 1.2 (1.3) 0.6 (0.9)
* Per cent of GDP
Table 5. International conditions
Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
GDP 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 2.0 (2.2) 1.5 (1.4) 1.6 (1.6) 3.0 (3.0) Japan 2.0 (2.0) 0.9 (1.4) 1.0 (1.5) 1.6 (1.6)
Euro area 2.6 (2.6) 1.3 (1.7) 0.9 (1.2) 1.9 (1.9)
OECD 2.6 (2.7) 1.7 (1.8) 1.6 (1.8) 2.6 (2.6) TCW-weighted 2.7 (2.8) 1.6 (1.8) 1.2 (1.4) 2.1 (2.0) World 4.9 (4.9) 3.9 (4.0) 3.8 (3.9) 4.4 (4.4)
CPI 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA 2.9 4.1 (4.3) 2.7 (2.8) 2.2 (2.2) Japan 0.0 1.4 (1.0) 1.0 (1.0) 0.5 (0.5) Euro area (HICP) 2.1 3.7 (3.7) 2.7 (2.7) 2.3 (2.3) OECD 2.4 3.6 (3.6) 2.6 (2.6) 2.2 (2.2) TCW-weighted 2.0 3.6 (3.4) 2.5 (2.5) 2.1 (2.1)
2007 2008 2009 2010
Crude oil price. USD/barrel Brent 73 114 (123) 119 (137) 119 (136)
Swedish export market growth 4.0 (3.9) 3.9 (5.1) 3.5 (3.9) 5.9 (5.7)
Table 6. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified ( ) = MPR
2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
2007 2008 2009 2010
Private consumption 3.0 (3.0) 1.8 (2.2) 1.7 (2.0) 3.0 (3.0) Public consumption 1.1 (1.1) -0.7 (0.4) 0.7 (1.0) 1.2 (1.2) Gross fixed capital formation 8.0 (8.0) 3.6 (5.6) 1.2 (1.1) 2.1 (2.6) Inventory investment* 0.7 (0.7) 0.1 (-0.6) -0.3 (0.0) 0.1 (0.1) Exports 6.0 (6.0) 5.0 (6.6) 2.9 (3.4) 5.5 (5.6) Imports 9.6 (9.6) 6.0 (6.5) 3.6 (4.4) 5.5 (5.6) GDP 2.7 (2.7) 1.4 (2.1) 0.8 (1.2) 2.6 (2.7) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 (2.9) 1.1 (1.9) 0.9 (1.4) 2.3 (2.4)
Table 7. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
*Per cent of labour force
2007 2008 2009 2010
Population, aged 16-64 0.9 (0.9) 0.8 (0.8) 0.4 (0.4) 0.2 (0.2) GDP, calendar-adjusted 2.9 (2.9) 1.1 (1.9) 0.9 (1.4) 2.3 (2.4) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted
3.5 (3.5) 1.6 (1.3) -0.6 (-0.5) -0.3 (0.0)
Employed (EU definition) 2.5 (2.5) 1.4 (1.4) -0.6 (-0.4) -0.3 (-0.1) Labour force (EU definition) 1.5 (1.5) 1.4 (1.2) 0.1 (0.2) -0.2 (0.0)
Unemployment (EU definition)* 6.1 (6.1) 6.2 (5.9) 6.8 (6.5) 6.9 (6.5) Labour market programmes* 1.8 (1.8) 1.6 (1.8) 1.8 (1.8) 1.9 (1.9)
Table 8. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as a
wholeAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) =
MPR 2008:2
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
*Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points
2007 2008 2009 2010
Hourly wage, NMO 3.3 (3.3) 4.2 (4.4) 3.6 (3.7) 3.7 (3.8) Hourly wage, NA 3.3 (3.3) 4.4 (4.7) 3.9 (4.0) 4.0 (4.0) Employer’s contributions* 0.4 (0.4) -1.2 (-1.2) 0.7 (0.7) 0.1 (0.1) Hourly labour costs, NA 3.7 (3.7) 3.2 (3.5) 4.6 (4.7) 4.0 (4.1) Productivity -0.6 (-0.6) -0.5 (0.6) 1.5 (1.9) 2.6 (2.4)
Unit labour cost 4.3 (4.3) 3.7 (2.9) 3.0 (2.8) 1.4 (1.6)
Table 9. Latest outcome and previous forecasts for central forecast variables
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
*Percentage of labour force, seasonally adjusted data
Key figures Period Outcome MPR 2008:2
GDP, calendar-adjusted Q 2 0.7 2.1 Hours worked, calendar-adjusted Q 2 2.0 1.7 Employed (EU definition) Q 2 1.8 1.9
Unemployment (EU definition)* Q 2 6.8 6.5
Exchange rate, TCW index, level** Q 3 123.5 122.3
CPI July 4.4 4.3
CPIF July 3.4 3.4
CPIX July 3.2 3.3
CPIX exkluding energy July 2.0 2.2
** Outcome for quarter 3 refers to the mean value for July and August
