Moving toward Arrival-Departure GDP
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Transcript of Moving toward Arrival-Departure GDP
Moving toward Arrival-Departure GDP
Bill Hall
December 1999
#* Bill Hall 12/16/992
Why Arrival-Departure GDP?
• Arrivals are only half the story
• Rationing departure resources would– Provide control over departure delays
– Improve enroute and arrival predictions
– Allow airlines to determine their own tradeoff between delay and cancellation
• Departure queue control– Reduced fuel use
– Fewer airframe hours
– Less environmental impact
#* Bill Hall 12/16/993
Careful!
• Time constants much faster on departures
• Substitutions must be nearly instantaneous
• Europe rations arrivals and departures all the time– This is not the whole answer
• The real motivation --
– Control over arrival - departure interactions
#* Bill Hall 12/16/994
Airport Capacity
• Interactions between many factors determine airport capacity– Airport configuration
– Mixture of arrivals and departures
– Types of aircraft
• To first order, capacity can be represented in arrival-departure space
#* Bill Hall 12/16/995
The Draper Approach
• Use arrival-departure interactions to everyone’s advantage
• Give users more control
• Require few people in the loop for fast reaction times
• Quantified benefits (from my thesis, May 1999)
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Current Ops
#* Bill Hall 12/16/996
Arrival-departure tradeoff occurs only at a few small airports like BOS and LGA, right?
• For a given configuration, maybe• But make configuration decisions in concert with
demand...
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#* Bill Hall 12/16/998
How ADCAM Achieves Benefit
• During GDPs the FAA currently rations arrival capacity only
• This approach ignores the dynamics of arrival-departure interactions
ADCAM uses a better airport capacity model that includes arrival-departure interactions
ADCAM affords the airlines more controlAllows planned operations outside of the box
#* Bill Hall 12/16/999
Current GDP
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9910
ADCAM GDP
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9911
Allocation to Multiple Users
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9912
Allocation Is Dynamic
planned operations -- all airlines
planned United operations
planned Northwest operations
United subcapacity
Northwest subcapacity
other colors -- other airlines
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9913
Outline of Arrival-Departure Capacity Allocation
• ATCSCC makes arrival-departure capacity forecast
• Arrival-departure capacity rationed by schedule (ADRBS)
• Users employ capacity for arrivals and departures as they see fit
• Arrival-departure compression run
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9914
Progress
• We’ve worked out the details of ADCAM implementation
• We’ve implemented Arrival-Departure Ration By Schedule (ADRBS) in software
• We’ve tested the idea in simulation on optimization-based airline models
• We’ve developed visualizations
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9915
Implications for your Airline
• Control delay / cancellation tradeoff for your own operations– You own departure resource, use it how you like
• Get extra arrival capacity when you need it– Preserve bank connection structure
• Get extra departure capacity when you need it– Ramp / gate congestion
• Freedom to hedge against forecast uncertainty
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#* Bill Hall 12/16/9916
Implementation Strategy
• Build support infrastructure– Incremental benefit along critical path to ADCAM
– Additional improvements as time and funding permit
• Implement Prototype ADCAM– Start with a demonstration airport
• Needs enough traffic to show benefit
– Pre-operational testing followed by prototype operations
• Extend to entire system
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9917
Path to ADCAM
DepartureDemandPredictor
CDMData Demand
Forecast
CapacityForecast
Capacity-BasedDemand Prediction
Arrival-DepartureCapacity Modeling
TrafficManagers,ATCSCC
ConfigurationPlanning Tool
Arrival-DepartureOp’s Visualization
AirportPlanningPersonnel
GDP What-ifCalculator
ADCAM
AirlineOperationsCenters
critical path development begun useful tools
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9918
What Draper can provide
• ADCAM and simulation tools to analyze ADCAM performance at specific airports
• Prototype Arrival-Departure GDP tools
• Prototype tools for airline decision support under ADCAM
• Support for Prototype Arrival-Departure Operations
• Support for transition to system-wide operations
• Experience analyzing and building real-time systems
• Analytical understanding of ATM and ATFM
• Development to date has been on internal Draper funds
– We’ve invested up the learning curve
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9919
Conclusions
• Arrival capacity depends on departures
• Rationing both gives airlines more control– Significant flexibility available in the airport “physics” not
currently given to the airlines
• Allows better match of demand to capacity– Possible to reduce airborne holding and ground delays
• Allows better match of ATM strategy to demand– Better demand information for configuration planning
– Better tactical flow management (MIT, MINIT, vectoring)
– Better en route modeling and allocation
#* Bill Hall 12/16/9920
Draper is ready
• We could start pre-operational testing within a year of authority to proceed
• We have worked out many of the difficult implementation issues
• We’ve developed supporting software
• We’re excited about this and want to be part of CDM
• Involve us to leverage our findings, our progress to date, and our investment