AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

In This Issue

• Market Outlook

• Equity Investment Ideas

• Technical & Derivatives Outlook

• Commodities Market Outlook

• Products

• PMS, AIF

Dear Investor,

Equity markets continued its previous month's euphoria

to touch new highs during the start of June. However,

this was short lived and Indices consolidated at lower

levels due to global growth concerns and lack of domestic

triggers.

Nifty50 touched 12,103 - its record level before settling

down to close at 11,789 (down 1.1%) in June. Nifty Midcap100 Index underperformed

with loss of 1.7% in June while the Nifty SmallCap100 Index fell 5.3%, sharply

underperforming the market.

FII activity was muted with net inflows of INR1,033 crore, while DIIs remained buyers

for the second consecutive month with net buying worth INR3,643 crore.

With politics now behind, the focus would shift back to fundamentals and as such

1QFY20 earnings will be viewed with keen interest for signs of earnings pick-up. Our

1QFY20 earnings expectations are modest, with 8%/10% growth expected in MOSL

Universe/Nifty and that too dominated by Financials. We are expecting a 5% YoY

decline in earnings for Nifty-ex Corporate Banks.

The corporate narrative on consumption has weakened in the past six months and

the monsoon - albeit better - is still in deficit.

We expect near-term upside to be capped by unsupportive Nifty valuations (20x FY20E

P/E). Mid-caps, meanwhile, are now trading at a discount of 18% to the Nifty and

offer reasonable bottoms-up opportunities. On the positive side, bond yields have

corrected and may provide some valuation support to equities.

The first budget of NDA 2.0 has laid the foundation for the government's next five

year's reform agenda. While the announcements have been on the macro level,

effective execution would determine its impacts on the economy in coming days.

Global Market

Index 28-June-19 MoM (%) YoY(%)

Sensex 39,395 -0.8 11.2

Nifty 11,789 -1.1 10.0

FTSE 7,426 3.7 -2.8

Dow 26,600 7.2 9.6

Nasdaq 8,006 7.4 6.6

Hang Sang 28,543 4.3 -1.4

Economic Pulse

Thought for the month

Siddhartha Khemka

Sr. Vice President- Head - Retail Research

Key Highlights

Markets consolidate near highs

Modest expectations from 1Q earnings

Union Budget: Execution to be the key

July 2019

Key Indicators Current Mth Pre. Mth

IIP 3.4% -0.1%

CPI 3.05% 3.92%

10 Year Yield 6.87% 7.03%

USD/ INR 69.02 69.69

Crude ($) 69.55 64.49

Gold (10 gms) 34,006 32,056

1

"Successful investing is about managing risk,

not avoiding it"

Benjamin Graham

AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

Equity Investment Ideas

Investment Ideas√ UltraTech Cement is the largest manufacturer of grey cement, Ready Mix Concrete (RMC)

and white cement in India.

√ The Indian cement industry recorded a double digit growth of 12% in FY19, first time

since FY10. Utilizations for the industry increased 6pp YoY to 71%.

√ The acquisition of Century's cement asset and Binani has led to ultratech increasing its

capacity market share in the North to 26% (from 19% currently) and take its pan-India

capacity market share to 25% (from 20% currently).

√ Further, healthy operating performance, cost rationalization initiatives along with

industry tailwinds arguers well for the company.

BUY

Ultratech Cement

CMP: INR 4,555

Target: INR 5,280

√ Indian Hotel (IHIN) is the 2nd largest hotel chain operator in India. It manages 17,888

rooms globally, with more than 80% of the room inventory in the domestic market.

√ Indian hospitality industry is set to enter into an upcycle, led by favourable demand-

supply dynamics.

√ IHIN has strong presence in high-demand, high-occupancy micro markets. We believe

it is well placed to achieve its 'Aspiration 2022' vision - of 8% EBITDA margin expansion

by revenue improvement of 3-4% & cost reduction of 3-5%.

√ We expect consolidated revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 9%/25% over FY19-21, led by 8%

ARR growth.

Indian Hotels

CMP: INR 157

Target: INR 186

BUY

√ KEC is global infra EPC player with presence in Power T&D, Cables, Railways, Water &

Renewables. It has presence in 61+ countries across Africa, Americas and Asia.

√ Current Order Book of INR203bn provides strong revenue visibility over the next 2-3 years,

driven by railway, civil and T&D segments.

√ KEC has successfully reduced its dependency on Power T&D in general and Power Grid

capex in particular to 69% currently from 85% in FY15. Focus on increasing share of non-

T&D (esp railways & civil) over 2-3 years would bring it down further to 60% by FY21.

√ We expect Revenue/PAT CAGR of 16%/24% over FY19-21 on the back of healthy order

book and financial leverage led by debt reduction.CMP as on 28th June 2019

BUY

KEC International

CMP: INR 321

Target: INR 438

July 2019

2

√ DCB Bank has presence across Retail, MSME, Agri and Corporate banking serving mainly

towards self-employed clients.

√ It has made significant investments over FY15-18 and has successfully executed its strat-

egy of branch expansion, small-ticket-size, secured granular lending to self-employed cus-

tomers and scaling of retail liabilities. Thus it has more than doubled its loan book from

FY15 to ~INR236b currently and is well positioned to double it again by FY22.

√ We expect loan growth (24% CAGR over FY19-21) to stay ahead of system loan growth

and credit cost to remain stable due to high proportion of secured loans. With incremental

branch expansion moderating, we expect RoA/RoE to improve to 1.2%/16.2% by FY21.

BUY

DCB Bank

CMP: INR 237

Target: INR 275

AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

Technical & Derivatives Outlook

√ Nifty started the June month on a positive note but it failed to continue its momen-

tum and remained consolidative for most part of the month due to Geo Political

tensions. Index remained choppy for most part of the month but decline was being

bought near to 11625-11650 zones which is a key support area being formed on

Election Result day. It has also taken multiple support at its 50 EMA on daily scale

which is also a 50% retracement of the entire up leg from 11108 to 12103 zones.

Technical indicators, like RSI firmed positive in weekly and monthly scale while

MACD and ADX holding above its base line.

√ Nifty formed a small bodied candle with same length of upper and lower shadow

on weekly scale near to crucial support zones which indicates tug of war between

Bull and Bears near to key market area. This pattern is being formed after the

consolidation of last three weeks near to cluster of support, thus suggests overall

Bullish bias in the market.

√ Index has already seen a profit booking of 450 points from its life time high of

12103 levels and after that it negated its lower highs - lower low formation of last

three weeks which indicates a start of a fresh leg of upside rally in market. Now a

decisive hold above 11761-11820 zones could see a move towards life time high of

12103 zones. On the downside, Nifty has major support near to 11650 zones,

breach below this level can disturb the recent short term setup to drag it towards

11550 then 11333 levels.

July 2019

3

Derivative StrategyNIFTY - Bull Call Ladder Spread- July Series

SBUY 1 LOT OF 11900 CE @ 175; SELL 1 LOT OF 12100 CE @ 85

SELL 1 LOT OF 12200 CE @ 54

NET PREMIUM PAID : 36 POINTS

RISK SCENARIO 1 : 36 POINTS IF IT REMAINS LOWER

RISK SCENARIO 2 : UNLIMITED IF IT EXPIRES ABOVE 12364

OVERALL REWARD : IF IT EXPIRES IN BETWEEN 11936 TO 12364 LEVELS

MAX PROFIT : 164 POINTS IF IT EXPIRES IN BETWEEN 12100 TO 12200

Rationale:

√ Nifty index has taken multiple support near to 11620 - 11650 zones and supports are gradually shifting higher

√ Falling volatility with rising Put call ratio suggests positive to range bound bias in the market

√ Put writing is intact at 11600 and fresh Put writing is seen at higher strikes which suggests higher zones

√ Call writing is seen at 12000 then 12300 strike could restrict its upside momentum to 12100 then 12250 zones

√ Thus suggesting, Bull Call Ladder Spread to play the positive to range bound move of the marke

Nifty Monthly

Banknifty Weekly

Technical & Derivatives

CMP as on 1st July 2019

AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

Commodities & Currency

Commodities & Currency Outlook

Gold sparkled the brightest in the previous month, with prices hitting six-year high of $1440, after uncertainty related to trade war escalated and

the FOMC turned dovish. As the uncertainties continued and escalated without any signs of easing, metal had a very good start from the first day

of the month. With all the uncertainties in the market, previous month proved to be very supportive for the metal. Things got more aggressive for

gold after the dovish policy statements reported from most of the major central banks.

Dovish Fed: - Rising concerns of global economic slowdown and weak economic numbers forced Fed to be a dove instead of a hawk. The Fed

Chairman has decided to keep door open for rate cut in the near future and dovish outlook also kept the greenback under pressure. The central

bank as of now has decided to maintain a status quo and with inflation forecast also getting trimmed chances of rate hike by the Fed has totally

eroded. Market participants are now factoring in a couple of rate cuts in this year suggesting that the Fed is one of the new entrants in the group

of Dovish central banks. All the major central banks including ECB, BOE and BOJ are holding a dovish stance.

Trade war uncertainties: - As the month started tussle between US and China trade war escalated with Mexico too on the radar to get its

immigrants issue resolved. During the month, US President hinted towards imposing further import tariffs on Chinese goods, but refrained from

doing so ahead of important G20 meeting that was scheduled last weekend. President Trump again threatened to increase the tariff rate to 25%

from 10% on the remaining $300 billion worth of goods, with the condition that China should attend the G20 summit. Almost a week before the

summit, China agreed to attend the summit where trade war was the underlined topic. We saw the summit ending on a positive note, where

President Trump said that the trade talks have resumed and is back on track. Also the US representatives mentioned beforehand only that the trade

talks are 90% complete. Even though these statements are just to calm the markets down, the markets are yet again expecting not a quick but a

positive end to the trade war.

Central banks accumulate gold: - Central bank diversifying their portfolio from dollar and buying gold has also been one of the supporting

factors for gold. Other developing countries are getting in the race to buy gold, although Russia and China remain the leaders. Russian central

bank bought another ~6 tonnes of the metal in May increasing its total gold holdings to 2190 tonnes. On the other hand, China bought ~15

tonnes of gold for the sixth consecutive month in May, increasing its total holdings to 1916 tonnes.

Rise in investment demand: - The CFTC speculative positions saw an increase in the previous month suggesting market participants were net long

in June. Also, SPDR holdings moved from 743 tonnes at the start of the month to 799 tonnes at the end of June, which means there was a net

inflow of approximate 56 tonnes on monthly basis.

Price Outlook: - Gold has given a breakout above $1,365, and sustaining well above the same. This could lead to an immediate upside towards

$1,440-1,465 followed by $1,510. Domestic gold prices are also holding firm above the break out levels of Rs.33700 and this could trigger

further upside in price towards Rs.34,700 followed by Rs.35,200 in the short term. We continue to maintain our medium term target for gold at

Rs.38,000 and Rs.40,000.

Gold glitters at a Six year high

July 2019

4

√

AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

Products

July 2019

5

It's frustrating time for the investors in the equity markets. While Sensex and Nifty are very close to their all-time high levels (a mere 2 percent

away), investors' portfolios are not mimicking the same. This is not only true for the retail investors, but also for institutional investors. This

divergence is perplexing for many investors. June was not that great month for the investors as Benchmark index moved down by 1.5 per

cent. But at fag end of June we have seen some kind of revival in the sentiments as mid-caps and small-caps outperformed the large-caps.

Even advance decline ratio saw drastic improvement since 19th June with more advance than decline. The key event to watch out in July is

Budget and spread of southwest Monsoon. That would decide next movement of the market.

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AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

PMS

July 2019

6

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Performance since inception

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AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter

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Disclosures:

The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providingStock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL).MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Boardof India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity& Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRLand is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products. Detailsof associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. are available on the website at http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf

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MOFSL, it's associates, Research Analyst or their relatives may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst or their relatives may have actual beneficial ownershipof 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public appearance. MOFSL and its associate company(ies),their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may have any other potential conflict of interests at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance.

In the past 12 months, MOFSL or any of its associates may have:

a) received any compensation from the subject company of this report

b) managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,

c) received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,

d) received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.

" MOFSL and it's associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.

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" MOFSL and research analyst may engage in market making activity for the subject company.

MOFSL and its associate company(ies), and Research Analyst and their relatives from time to time may have:

a) a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein.

(b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisoror lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearingwhatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might existan inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.

Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which areopened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.

To enhance transparency, MOFSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL and / or its affiliatesdo and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interestthat may affect the objectivity of this report.

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This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmittedto, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of MOFSL. The report is based on the facts, figures and information thatare considered true, correct, reliable and accurate. The intent of this report is not recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Suchinformation has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subjectto change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instrumentsfor the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directlyor indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership of the stock No

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com. Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietarytrading desk of MOFSL or its associates maintains arm's length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regardsto subject company for which Research Team have expressed their views.

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The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, andtherefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any otherperson or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document orsolicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategyis suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based ontheir own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. Each recipient of this documentshould make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), andshould consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involvingfutures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as tothe accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparencyand should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternationsto this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transactionin, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from,any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This reporthas been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or maynot subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other personor published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, countryor other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Thesecurities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and toobserve such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenueor lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees from, any and allresponsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employeesfree and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.

Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 22 71934200/022-71934263; Website www.motilaloswal.com.

Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.

Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser:INA000007100; Insurance Corporate Agent: CA0579, PMS: INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered throughMOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal OswalFinancial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,

Insurance Products and IPOs. Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private EquityInvestment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services are backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefullybefore investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer:Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to query@motilaloswal.com. In case of grievances for Securities Broking write to grievances@motilaloswal.com, for DP to dpgrievances@motilaloswal.com