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MOSt Advisor Aug 2015 - Motilal Oswal · Monthly Markets Newsletter On This Page MOSt Value, MOSt...
Transcript of MOSt Advisor Aug 2015 - Motilal Oswal · Monthly Markets Newsletter On This Page MOSt Value, MOSt...
AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
In This Issue
• Market Outlook for the month
• Equity Market Outlook
• Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook
• Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas
• Model Advisory Portfolios
• Recommended Funds
• Client Portal
Dear Investor,
Market performance: Indian Equities ended almost flat
in the month of July with volatile swings on negative and
positive international news flow. Midcaps and small-caps
outperformed with a 4-5% gain for indices and more for
3rd rung companies.
Domestic triggers ahead - hopes getting built-up:
The monsoon session of Parliament was expected to see passage of GST Bill - one
of the biggest reform for the government and the country. However, other matters
continue to stall normal functioning of Parliament. It is crucial that GST bill and if
possible Land Bill get passed for a rerating of our markets. Sowing has picked up
while monsoon has stalled. It is crucial that monsoons pick up. RBI could remain
stubborn on the rates front, but corporate capex as well as government spend is
expected to see an uptick in 2HFY16.
Global worries create undue excitement: Greece continued to drive the markets
as did China. Greece has reached a truce with EU, while Chinese Central Bank
continues to pump-in cash to support the equity markets. Chinese stocks and the
slowdown in the economy will continue to influence Indian markets too at regular
intervals. Commodities have been a been a casualty of the melt-down in China.
The Road ahead: Earnings are expected to pick-up in 2H with aid from a small
base, lower commodity prices and lower interest rates. Stocks are reflecting a buoyant
mood with strong inflows into Mutual Funds and second rung stocks. The movement
in 2nd and 3rd tier stocks makes us cautious on the midcaps space and we
recommend not going over-board on this space especially given the temptation of
juicy tips on circuit hitters. Stock movements in this space are ignoring fundamentals.
This is to be expected as "Bulls" get "Ready to Charge" as per our Quant Team for
a target of 8900 on the NIFTY for now with further upsides likely to open up. We
recommend Auto, Banking and Media as top sectors to invest and recommend to
stick with tried and tested investment avenues such as Maruti, Yes Bank, Eveready
and Inox Wind.
Global Market
Index 31-July-15 MoM (%) YoY(%)
Sensex 28,115 1.2 8.6
Nifty 8,533 2.0 10.5
FTSE 6,696 2.7 -0.5
Dow 17,690 0.4 6.8
Nasdaq 5,128 2.8 17.3
Hang Sang 24,636 -6.1 -0.5
Economic Pulse
Thought for the month
Ravi Shenoy
Vice President
Key Highlights for the Month
GST in monsoon session of Parliament - will it go through?
First Greece, then China, what next?
Circuit hitters - movement ignores fundamentals, caution advised
August 2015
Key Indicators Current Month Change (%)
IIP 2.7% -34.15
WPI -2.40% -
10 Year Yield 7.83% -0.38
USD/ INR 64.13 0.75
Crude ($) 52.21 -17.90
Gold (10 gms) 24592 -6.69
1
AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
Sectoral Highlights
On This Page
Equity Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
Equity Market Outlook
√ Nifty ended the month of July with a gain of 165 points. Nifty was mostly
range bound during the month and respected the immediate support of
the Index which is placed at 8300. Over optimism by Put Writers during
the month dragged the Index lower but it managed to recover its losses to
close higher.
√ Nifty after breaking from the 'Downward Sloping Wedge' saw a temporary
pullback but the pattern remains intact with medium term support placed
at 8180 (coincides with highest written put). The upside expectation re-
mains at 9200 with a temporary hurdle at 8900. Weekly chart has a large
'Shadow' in place, indicating high demand at lower level and re-confirm-
ing the immediate support at 8300.
√ A 'Swing' in the momentum indicator from the level of 40-45 is a positive
indication as it is expected to be the left extreme within the 'Dual Distribu-
tion' structure. Z-score of Nifty is placed around zero indicating an Equilib-
rium of all biases and a fresh up-move is expected. Nifty is placed healthy
within the 'Global Equity Rotation' and is expected to witness
outperformance hence, may lead to Foreign inflows.
√ In Sectors: Capital Goods, Media & Energy turns up to be common lead-
ing sector from two individual analysis. Banking is another sector which
after being placed in neutral is moving towards outperformance and can
relatively outperform. Auto based on a short term derivative study looks
positive for a move of few weeks within its overall trading range.
Technical Outlook
Bank Positive SBIN Buy / 270
Capital Goods Positive Siemens Buy / 1455
Media Positive ̀ Dish TV Buy / 116
Realty Negative HDIL Sell / 86
Sector Our Views Top Pick Recommendation/CMP
Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,
Nifty - Downward Sloping Wedge
Nifty - Daily Support
Nifty - Momentum Indicator
August 2015
2
Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-August2015.pdf
Data as on 31st July 2015
AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
On This Page
Derivatives Market Outlook,
Commodities Market Outlook
Markets & Our Recommendations
Derivatives Market Outlook
√ Nifty futures see rollovers of 64%, which is almost in line with 3M average. We saw more longs through the expiry, which seems to have rolled
as a result OI up 5% (EoE) Expiry over Expiry
√ Stock futures saw fresh additions after unwinding in last few expiries. Rollovers were at 83% with a tiny lead over 3M average rollovers.
√√√√√ Positive: Auto: Longs in M&M, Maruti and Tyre stocks (Tata Motors in pessimistic
zone). Capital Goods: Marginal Longs in Crompton, Siemens and BHEL. FMCG: Mar-
ginal Longs in HUL and ITC after Short Covering last expiry. IT: Bargain Hunting in select
stocks. Media and Oil & Gas: Longs continue to add & roll
√√√√√ Non Secular OI activity: Cement: Longs in Grasim & Ultra Tech, Shorts in ACC. Pharma:
Shorts in LUPIN, SUN Pharma. Late expiry Longs in DR Reddy
√√√√√ Negative: PSU Banks: Short Roll Continue but Risky as lot of price damage already done.
Metals & Realty: Short roll continues
√√√√√ Neutral: Telecom, Private Banks (Discarding Non Directional OI in Kotak & Federal Bk)
SECTORS OI Nifty- Bull Call Ratio Spread
Actionable
BUY 1 LOT 8600 CESELL 2 LOTS 8900CE
√ Bias remains positive considering Nifty futures setup
√ Option composition indicates head room open till 8800
√ Considering the long expiry ahead, Call Ratio spread
could suit the best
Commodities Market Outlook
√ Gold witnessed the biggest monthly loss since June 2013 as concerns over Greece faded and U.S. monetary policy came back into focus.
√ In Europe, the drama over Greece seems to have ended after Greek approved tough austerity measures set by the creditors which enabled the
start of fresh bailout negotiations. In short, even as some hiccups remain before Greece gets a new bailout, the possibility of Grexit has been
greatly reduced which dented the safe haven appeal of precious metals.
√ The focus now has shifted back to the monetary divergence between U.S and Europe. The July FOMC statement gave no explicit signals about
the timing of the rate hike but the change in the language does reflect that lift off options remain open in September.
√ Also, U.S. economic momentum is showing signs of revival in Q2 which will keep expectations of a rate hike alive in September. Preliminary
reading of Q2 GDP showed that the economy expanded by 2.3%. Housing data has also shown signs of pick up, while employment data
remains robust with the only exception of wages.
√ On the investment demand side, SPDR outflows continued for a third month in July, declining by a massive 37 tonnes. Chinese demand
remains subdued but Indian demand showing some improvement post the steep price decline.
√ Broadly, precious metals look very weak and vulnerable and will remain very sensitive to U.S. data. We believe that the path of least resistance
remains lower. Pricewise, spot Gold has breached crucial supports near $1140 and could extend weakness towards $1050 -980.
Gold
August 2015
3
Target Profit : 4000
Stop Loss: 1500
‐3000.0
‐2000.0
‐1000.0
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
8200.0
8300.0
8400.0
8500.0
8600.0
8700.0
8800.0
8900.0
9000.0
9100.0
9200.0
EXPIRY PAYOFF
AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
BUY
Yes Bank
CMP*: INR829
Target: INR950
√ Yes Bank is a full-service commercial bank with Corporate, Retail and SME Banking
platforms.
√ The Bank offer higher rates on the savings category which has helped CASA+Term
deposits rise to >50% of funds
√ On the base of 662 branches and 1,277 ATMs, management aims to add ~100-150
branches per year.
√ Stable spreads and traction in fees will keep PAT CAGR strong at 26% over FY15/18E.
√ We recommend to Buy with a target price of INR950 (2.4x FY17E BV).
On This Page
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
Must Act
Large Cap Investment Ideas
Market & Our Recommendation√ Maruti Suzuki is the largest personal mobility vehicle manufacturer in India.
√ MSIL has guided for 11-12% growth for FY16 vs SIAM's industry growth est. of 6-8%.
√ It stands to gain from Yen depreciation - import content is at 15%-16% of sales and
royalty is at 5.5%.
√ Coupled with volume growth over FY15-17E, margin expansion should help drive a
40% EPS CAGR.
√ We recommend to BUY for a Target of INR 5298.
BUY
Maruti Suzuki
CMP*: INR4330
Target: INR5298
√ Inox Wind was India's fourth-largest wind turbine generator manufacturer in FY14
√ Order book for Inox Wind stands at 1.2GW (up 4% QoQ), and provides visibility for
~15 months
√ We expect a 44% revenue CAGR over FY15-17, largely supported by 28% volume
growth.
√ Driven by strong earnings growth and debt repayment, we expect RoE to improve to
28% in FY17.
√ We recommend to BUY for a target price of INR543
Inox Wind
CMP*: INR417
Target: INR543
BUY
Mid Cap Investment Ideas
√ Eveready with its popular tag line "Give Me Red" commands 50% market share in batterries.
√ Eveready's battery business cash flows will be used to non-battery growth businesses such
as LED lighting (a INR5000cr opportunity in 5 years) and home and kitchen applianes.
√ We believe Eveready can grow its earnings at a CAGR of 30% in coming years.
√ We recommend to Buy with a revised target of INR400.
Data as on 31st July 2015
BUY
Eveready
CMP*: INR331
Target: INR400
August 2015
4
AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
On This Page
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap
Build a Portfolio
MOSt Value - Model Advisory Portfolio for Investors
Scrip MBP Wtg.
Axis Bank 574 10.0
Ultra Tech 3149 10.0
ICICI Bank 302 7.5
United Spirits 3705 7.5
SBI 270 7.5
Sun Pharma 822 7.5
Asian Paints 883 7.5
Tata Motors 384 7.5
HPCL 922 5.0
Coal India 439 5.0
HDFC 1340 5.0
Jubilant Foodworks 1832 5.0
L&T 1791 5.0
Shriram Transport 891 5.0
Cadila Healthcare Ltd 1887 5.0
TTTTTota lota lota lota lota l 1 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 01 0 0
Sectoral Allocation For Whom
Investment
Duration
Risk Profile
few months
to a year
Defensive
Investors
What’s In What’s Out
-
Long Term
Investors
Cadila Health
MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Advisory Portfolio for Positional Traders
Scrip MBP Wtg.
ASHOKLEY 84 10.0ASIANPAINT 883 10.0
AXISBANK 574 10.0TATAMOTORS 384 10.0
CASTROLIND 491 5.0
GLENMARK 1012 5.0HDFC 1340 5.0
HDFCBANK 1112 5.0PVR 844 5.0
RECLTD 271 5.0SUNPHARMA 822 5.0
TECHM 531 5.0
YESBANK 829 5.0Cash 15.0
TTTTTotalotalotalotalotal 100100100100100
Sectoral Allocation For Whom
Investment
Duration
Risk Profile
Few months
horizon
Moderate
Investors
What’s In What’s Out
Medium Term
Investors
Cadila HealthDish TVHeroMotoNtpc
MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors
Scrip MBP Wtg.
TVS Motors 238 12.0Repco Home Finance 690 12.0Suprajit Engineering 143 12.0Bajaj Corp 456 11.0Bajaj Finance 5475 10.0Berger Paints 218 10.0Finolex cables 259 9.0Eveready Industries 330 9.0Engineers India 243 8.0Kitex Garments 775 7.0Cash 5 0.0TTTTTotalotalotalotalotal 100100100100100
Sectoral Allocation For Whom
Investment
Duration
Risk Profile
few months
to a year
Aggressive
Investors
What’s In What’s Out
Long Term
Investors
---- ----
Data as on 31st July 2015
August 2015
5
Asian PaintGlenmarkPVRREC Ltd
Sundaram Fin.
Tata Steel
AdvisorMOStMonthly Markets Newsletter
On This Page
MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
Managed Funds
August 2015
6
MOSt PMS
Top Holdings in Value Strategy
√ The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on investments done
in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth creation.
√ Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
√ Money multiplied by 21.52 times in just 12 years.
√ INR1Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth INR21.52 Crs vs. 8.44 Crs in CNX
Nifty.
√ Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 28.19% vs. CNX Nifty
returns of 18.83%, an outperformance of 9.36% (CAGR).
Value Strategy
Scrips % Holdings
Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 9.84
Bosch Ltd. 9.82
HDFC Bank Ltd. 9.76
Eicher Motors Ltd. 9.75
HDFC Ltd. 7.95
Sector Allocation % Holdings
Banking & Finance 29.89
Auto & Auto Ancillaries 29.76
Pharmaceuticals 9.84
Oil and Gas 6.67
FMCG 6.22
Data as on 31st July 2015
NTDOP Strategy
√ The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes which are part
of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly invest in Mid
Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.
√ The strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.
√ Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 20.11% annualized returns vs. 6.52% of
CNX Midcap, delivering an annualized alpha of 13.59%.
Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy
Scrips % Holdings
Eicher Motors Ltd. 16.06
HPCL 11.55
Bajaj Finance Ltd. 10.22
Page Industries Ltd. 8.35
Bosch Ltd. 7.96
All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above arepost fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio
G: Growth , E: Equity, HE: Hybrid-Equity, HD: Hybrid-Debt D: Debt, F: Fund, EA: Equity-Arbitrage, ST- Short Term, HA: Hybrid- ArbitrageData as on 31st July 2015
AGGRESSIVE - High Risk Return %
Scheme Name Type 1yr 3yrs Wtg%
DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund E 53.0 41.0 20%
HDFC Mid Cap Opportunities E 36.3 33.8 20%
Most Focused Multicap 35 E 51.8 NA 20%
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Eq Fund E 19.6 23.4 20%
Birla Sun Life Monthly Inc Plan II HD 19.9 16.1 20%
Total 100
Return %
Scheme Name Type 1yr 3yrs Wtg%
Most Focused 25 E 34.9 NA 20%
HDFC Balanced Fund (G) HD 22.2 23.8 20%
IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund (G) D 12.8 9.5 20%
Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund D 10.1 9.6 20%
Franklin India Short Term Income (G) D 11.2 10.3 20%
Total 100
DEFENSIVE - Low Risk
Sector Allocation % Holdings
Banking & Finance 28.22
Auto & Auto Ancillaries 24.02
FMCG 17.70
Oil and Gas 11.55
Diversified 6.22
Data as on 31st July 2015
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Investment Solutions
Client Portal
Game Changer
August 2015
7
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) Member of NSE, BSE & MCX-SX
Regd Office: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; CIN no.: U65990MH1994PLC079418; Tel No.: 022 3980 4263; www.motilaloswal.com
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