Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow
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Transcript of Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow
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Ocean’s Role in the Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere Troposphere InteractionInteraction
Yulia A. Zyulyaeva
Moscow State UniversityP.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow
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StratospStratospherehere
11-year solar cycle
TroposphTroposphereere
Polar Night Jet
Planetary Waves
QBQBOO
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)(
2sin2
1sin2
)(
2sin2
1
)(
2sin2
1
cos
2
0
T
aTv
S
u
avu
v
av
p
pFs
TvS
vuF sin2
Eliassen-Palm Flux – capturing Eliassen-Palm Flux – capturing the impact of planetary waves the impact of planetary waves onto the mean flowonto the mean flow
As proposed by Eliassen and Palm (1961)1
As proposed by Plumb (1985)2
If zonal averages are taken
sF
F
reduces to the
1) Eliassen, A. and E. Palm,1961: On the transfer of energy in stationary mountain waves. Geofys. Publ., No. 3, 1-232) Plumb, R.A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217-229
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Fvft
u
*
Wind deceleration is found to be large in the neighborhood of large negative values of divergence1
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Monthly mean
From NCEP/NCAR Reanlaysis datasets
•Geopotential heights,
•Air temperature,
•Wind From Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets
•SST
We analyze 49 Winter Seasons : November –
March1958/1959 – 2010/2011
Used Used DataData
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3D Eliassen-Palm Flux at 3D Eliassen-Palm Flux at 30hPa30hPa
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Arrows - horizontal component, contours - vertical x10-5 m2/s2
December 1975
December 1976Before SSW (major event) in January 1977Before SSW (major event) in January 1977
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ClimatologyClimatology49-year mean z-component of the EP Flux49-year mean z-component of the EP Flux
DecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarch
(x10-5 m2/s2)
Negative valuesNegative values
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EPEPzz -Flux and U-wind anomalies for -Flux and U-wind anomalies for
30hPa30hPa December – January December – January 1 month lag 1 month lag PRECONDITIONSPRECONDITIONS
1st EOF for U30 46% PNJ
1st EOF for Fz 43%
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Correlation -0,58 Correlation -0,58 PC for U30 with the opposite sign
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Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Nov -0.44 -0.47 -0.26 -0.05 0.15
Dec -0.06 -0.29 -0.58 -0.27 -0.04
Jan 0.03 -0.09 -0.12 0.04 0.12
Feb 0.16 0.21 0.47 0.38 0.06
Mar 0.26 0.32 0.14 0.35 -0.13
EPEPzz-Flux and U-wind -Flux and U-wind anomaliesanomalies
U-wind 30hPa
Correlation coefficient: PC of the 1st EOF of EP-flux (z-component) and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind at 30hPa
EP
z 30h
Pa
1. Karpetchko A., and G. Nikulin, Influence of early winter upward wave activity flux on midwinter circulationin the stratosphere and troposphere, J. Climate, 2004, vol. 17, pp. 4443-4452
2. Holton, J.R., Mass, C, 1976. Stratospheric vacillation cycles, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 2218-2225
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Correlation Coefficient between Correlation Coefficient between Fz (60N, 45W) and UWND at Fz (60N, 45W) and UWND at 30hPa 30hPa
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January
February
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Zyulyaeva, Yu.A., Jadin, E.A., 2008. Analysis of three - dimensional Elliassen-Palm fluxesin the lower stratosphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, in press
Scheme of the upward and downward Scheme of the upward and downward
propagationpropagation
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Scheme of the upward and downward Scheme of the upward and downward
propagationpropagation
Zyulyaeva, Yu.A., Jadin, E.A., 2009. Analysis of three - dimensional Elliassen-Palm fluxesin the lower stratosphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology
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-0,58-0,72 -0,57
-0,26
Break of the Break of the “preconditions”“preconditions”
PCs for the 1st EOF of EPz-Flux for December and U-wind for January
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1959-2007
Correlation Coefficient between QBO 30hPa (UWND 2.5N, 102.5E) and UWND 30hPa for period 1959 - 2007 (January - January) 95% - 0.24
WWest (est (EEast)ast) QBQBO > O > Strong (weak) Strong (weak) PVPV in in the Arcticthe Arctic
1959-1979
Holton, J.R., Tan, H.C., 1980. The influence of the equatorial quasi - biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 37, 2200-2208.
1980-2000
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1947 – 1976 “COOL PDO”
1977 – mid-1990’s “WARM PDO”
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The Pacific Decadal The Pacific Decadal OscillationOscillation
1st EOF for SST
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PCs for the 1st EOF of SST
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Relations between EPRelations between EPzz-Flux and SST -Flux and SST anomalies anomalies December - DecemberDecember - December
1st EOF for Fz
PCs for the 1st EOF of SST and Fz
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0,65 0,620,11
1st EOF for SST
Evgeny A. Jadin, Ke Wei, Yulia A. Zyulyaeva, Wen Chen, Lin Wang, Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72 (2010) 1163–1170
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Conclusions Conclusions (1)(1)
1.3D EP-Flux shows significant longitudinal asymmetry
2.Strong/weak penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere in December precedes to the major SSW/Ex. Cold events in January
3.No significant trends of 3D EP-Fluxes were indicated during the wintertime 1958-2007 (not shown)
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1. The mechanism connected with the thermal excitation of planetary waves by the SST anomalies in the North Pacific in the early winter and a downward propagation in the late winter in the North Atlantic region (“stratospheric bridge”) is proposed
2. Are there relations between the SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic and the stratospheric bridge in late winter or the 11-year solar cycle modulates the downward wave signal in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere?
Conclusions Conclusions (2)(2)
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THANK YOU THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTIONFOR YOUR ATTENTION
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K. Labitzke 1982, On the Interannual K. Labitzke 1982, On the Interannual Variability of the Middle Stratosphere during Variability of the Middle Stratosphere during
the Northern Wintersthe Northern Winters
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Relations between z-component of EP-FluxRelations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies in Decemberand zonal wind anomalies in December
1st EOF for Fz
51%
1st EOF for Fz
62%
Correlation 0,13Correlation 0,13
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Correlation -0,58Correlation -0,58
-0,72-0,72 -0,31-0,31 -0,57-0,57
Relations between z-component of EP-FluxRelations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies and zonal wind anomalies December - JanuaryDecember - January
1st EOF for Fz
51%
1st EOF for U30
46%
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)(
2sin2
1sin2
)(
2sin2
1
)(
2sin2
1
cos
2
0
T
aTv
S
u
avu
v
av
p
pFs
Contribution of the Second TermContribution of the Second Term
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11stst EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-FluxDecember(1958-2006) 43.3%
January(1959-2007)30.8%
February(1959-2007)38.0%
March(1959-2007)49.0%
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2-10123
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2
0
2
4
6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2-10123
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-2-10123
PC of 1PC of 1stst EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux
43.3% for December (1958-2006)
30.8%for January (1959-2007)
38.0%for February (1959-2007)
49.0%for March (1959-2007)
4) Hu, Y., and K.K. Tung, 2003: Possible ozone-induced long-term changes in planetary wave activity in late winter. J. Climate, 16, 3027-3038.
No Significant Trends!
2005
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January February
Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux Z-component of the EP Flux
for for Warm Vortex YearsWarm Vortex Years (x10-5 m2/s2)
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January February
Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux Z-component of the EP Flux
for for Cold Vortex YearsCold Vortex Years (x10-5 m2/s2)
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1959,1967,1969,1970,1984,1986,2001 1966,1973,1979,1980,1984,1989,1999,2001
December January
Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux Z-component of the EP Flux
(x10-5 m2/s2)
3) Charlton, A.J. and L.M. Polvani, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks. J Climate, 20, 449-469.
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11st st , 2, 2ndnd EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January 1959-2004January 1959-2004
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
1PC Jan
+0.03 -0.09 -0.12 +0.04 0.12
2PCJan
+0.11 +0.04 +0.52 +0.33 0.00
36.9%
18.5%
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EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January 1959-2004January 1959-2004
18.5% 23.0%
Level 30hPa Level 700hPa
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Stratospheric Sudden WarmingsStratospheric Sudden Warmings
January 1977
January 1976
sF
(x10-7m/s2)
3) Andrews, D.G., J.R. Holton and C.B. Leovy, 1987: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics. Academic Press, 489 pp.
Fvft
u
*Wind deceleration is found to be large in the neighborhood of large negative values of divergence1
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Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Nov -0.44 -0.47 -0.26 -0.05 0.15
Dec -0.06 -0.29 -0.58 -0.27 -0.04
Jan 0.03 -0.09 -0.12 0.04 0.12
Feb 0.16 0.21 0.47 0.38 0.06
Mar 0.26 0.32 0.14 0.35 -0.13
Relations between z-component of EP-FluxRelations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomaliesand zonal wind anomalies
U30
Fz
NegativeNegative
PositivePositivePC of the 1st EOF1959 - 2004
Correlation between PC of the 1st EOF of EP-flux (z-component) and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind anomalies at 30hPa
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Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Nov 0.18 -0.31 0.00 0.08 -0.02
Dec 0.18 0.33 0.06 -0.14 0.09
Jan -0.14 -0.04 0.04 -0.23 0.06
Feb -0.16 0.20 0.50 0.53 -0.14
Mar 0.10 0.22 -0.01 -0.07 0.21
Correlation between PC of the 1st EOF of the divergence of EP-flux and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind anomalies at 30hPa
Relations between divergence of the EP-FluxRelations between divergence of the EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomaliesand zonal wind anomalies
U30
sF
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