7/27/2019 Morsi braced as army deadline runs out - Martin Chulov , Patrick Kingsley - Guardian - Wednesday, 03. July 2013.

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International

16 The Guardian | Wednesday 3 July 2013

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Morsi braced as army deadline runs outMilitary poised to suspendEgyptian constitution

President was given hours to quell protests

Martin Chulov andPatrick Kingsley Cairo

Egypt is braced for its most decisive daysince the revolution that sparked the Arabspring revolts, with its military readyingto suspend the countrys constitution andpotentially cripple the authority of its firstdemocratically elected leader, MohamedMorsi.

The Supreme Council of the ArmedForces made clear late yesterday that itwould stick to an ultimatum it gave toMorsi on Monday that urged the embat-tled president to respond to a wave ofmass protests within 48 hours, or face anintervention which would in effect sub-sume his government.

The military command again claimedthat the widely anticipated events wouldnot amount to a military coup.

However, according to details of aroadmap for ending the crisis, obtained

by Reuter s, militar y comma nder Abd ulFatah al-Sisi would play a central role inthe countrys affairs, installing an interimcouncil of civilians and delaying parlia-mentary elections until a new constitutionwas drafted. A senior military source saidthat scenario was the most likely amongthose being discussed.

Morsi, a leading figure in the MuslimBrotherhood movement, took o ffi ce afterelections in June last year. His tenure asleader the first to replace ousted dicta-tor Hosni Mubarak has been plagued byclaims that governance under him has

been strongly tilted towards his Islamistpower base, at the expense of other keystakeholders in Egyptian society.

Egypts moribund economy has also

taken centre stage since the weekend,which marked the first anniversary ofMorsi taking offi ce, with his government

being blamed fo r chronic fuel shortagesand high food prices.

Supporters of Morsi have continu-ally denied claims that the governmentis unrepresentative and yesterday saidEgypt would not be driven backwards

by the militarys threat to intervene.Rallies were held by pro-Morsi support-

ers in parts of Cairo, including in Nasr City,and in the north of the country, in whichMuslim Brotherhood leaders vowed an all-out battle to defend the status quo. Therewere reports that some men carried burialshrouds at the Nasr City rally to demon-strate the extent of their defiance.

Any coup of any sort will only passover our dead bodies, senior Brother-hood offi cial Mohamed el-Beltagy sa id ina speech at a rally on Monday night, callingfor families in all Egyptian governorates

and villages to be prepared to take to thestreets and fill squares to support thepresident.

However, the rallies were dwarfed inboth size and fervour by a demonstrationat the focal point of Egypts revolution,Tahrir Square, which demanded thatMorsi either quit or form a power-sharinggovernment that would sharply diminishthe influence of his support base.

Those calling for the end of his presi-

dency include an uneasy alliance of dis-affected backers, as well as supporters ofthe former regime many of whom wereon opposite sides of a violent divide in theheady months after Mubarak fell.

The breadth of opposition to Morsiappears to give him and the MuslimBrotherhood few options in the comingdays and sets the scene for either an igno-minious defeat or a new phase of violentuncertainty. Even the interior ministry, astaunch supporter of the Mubarak regimeand a main protagonist in the clashes thatfollowed, appears to have abandoned him.Morsi has repeatedly offered to speak withhis opponents, but has been rebuffed atevery turn by groups who increasinglyfeel they have little to gain by accepting adialogue as his problems pile up.

Several more key aides and cabinetministers quit the Morsi government yes-terday as the president met General Sisi

in the presidential palace. With the

two men locked in a long discus-sion, military helicopters againcircled Tahrir Square. Thearmy released video footagetaken from the helicopters thatshowed festive scenes below, in

an act that clearly demonstratedthe armed forces remained behind

the protesters.By nightfall, hours

ahead of Sisis expected

announcement, Tahrir Square was oncemore overwhelmed by demonstrators,who had spilled across a bridge over theNile. There were reports of sporadic armedclashes in Cairo early yesterday evening,with gunfire heard in Giza. However, thecentres of both camps remained largelypeaceful.

Long regarded as a trusted and integralpart of Egyptian life, the military has never

been far from events during the past twoand a half years. It distanced itself fromMubarak as his authority crumbled, thenwas accused of overplaying its hand dur-ing the transitional phase that led to lastyears elections. Over the last few days,however, it has been widely embraced byan eclectic array of Morsi opponents.

I voted for Morsi, but I changed mymind because he didnt live up to what hepromised, said Ahmed Mahmoud, 25, inTahrir Square. If it wasnt for the recentarmy statement, wed all be in a state of

war.Shaima Salah, 28, said the militarys

role in any post-Morsi period should beshort and limited. The only solution is forthe army to lead a very short transitionalperiod, until new presidential elections,she said. But Im worried about the armytaking over the state, and Egypt going backto a military kind of government.

Seumas Milne, page 29

Outright military takeoverGeneral Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egyptsdefence minister, demands that Morsiresign. Morsi refuses. Troops surroundthe presidential palace and MuslimBrotherhood premises and place Morsiunder house arrest along with othersenior Brotherhood leaders. Morsisupporters form militias and taketo the streets to protest against thecounter-revolutionary army coup.But the army, scarred by its unhappy16-month rule after the downfall ofHosni Mubarak, is reluctant to assumedirect power. It prefers to stay in theshadows and mediate.

Silent coupMorsi agrees to call new presidentialelections. Some Islamist figures have

mooted dates ranging from Octoberto January provided they come afternew parliamentary elections that theBrotherhood leadership hopes willgive them a majority suffi cient tocompose the next government. Butthat is likely to be far too leisurely apace for Morsis critics.

Another variant is a referendum onwhether to hold a new p residential

race. The ultra-conservative SalafiNoor party supports this. The massprotest movement Tamarod says Morsimust go and wants early elections.Opposition forces say they do not trustany vote held under the Brotherhood.

Negotiations and stalemateMorsi, heeding the armys warningabout its own roadmap, invitesopposition leaders to join a power-sharing unity cabinet to promotenational reconciliation and reviewthe constitution that was passed lastyear. Simply shuffl ing the cabinet andappointing a new prime minister isunlikely to assuage public anger.

The National Salvation Front leadersAmr Moussa and Nobel laureateMohammed ElBaradei may want to

run for power with military backingor acquiescence. It is hard to seethem resiling from their demandthat Morsi go. The former air forcegeneral Ahmed Shafiq may harbourambitions too after being narrowly

beaten by Morsi in a runofflast summer. Protests anddeadlock look certain tocontinue. Ian Black

The scenarios

ew arrivals at Cairo

airport are greetedwith billboards bear-ing the rhetoric of aconcluded revolu-tion: grainy imagesof people-poweroverwritten with con-

gratulatory quotes from foreign leaders,sealed with the logos of mobile phonenetworks and commercial banks.

Yet to the dismay of politicians andcorporate executives, it seems Egyptsgrassroots revolt is refusing to stay in itsneatly packaged box. Millions are onceagain on the streets and it is easy to for-get there was ever talk of protest fatigue.

Amid the cacophony, commenta-tors have struggled to draw the battlelines in a political landscape that stub-

bornly resists simple explication. To

understand whats happening in Egyptit is important to distinguish between atleast two separate struggles playing out,the outcome of which will shape Egyptsrevolution for some time to come.

The first is a factional conflict withinthe ruling elite. Since Hosni Mubaraksposition was rendered untenable by thepopular uprising in January 2011 thoseelements of the authoritarian statemost invested in stability the military,security, plutocrats have worked hardto shield Egypts status quo from thefull brunt of revolutionary unrest. Fromlate 2011 onwards that fragmented elitehas been joined by higher echelons ofthe conservative Muslim Brotherhoodmovement, much to the chagrin ofMubarak-era loyalists whose antipathytowards the Islamists runs deep.

The Brotherhoods leaders have donetheir best to maintain the autocraticnature of Egyptian politics and keeprevolutionary demands at bay, but theyhave a led to a popular backlash.

Rival elements of the state are seiz-ing their chance to piggyback on thatgrassroots anger and engineer a reshuf-fle at the top. So it is that among those

jostling for the departure of Mohamed

Morsi, Egypts president, we find thefelool, remnants of the Mubarak regimeseeking to reclaim authority and pre-serve their privileges.

But there is another, more critical,struggle unfolding too. This is betweenthose fighting to destroy the old authori-tarian system which has denied thempolitical and economic agency, andwhich plunders Egypts public wealthin the name of private profiteers, andarrests, tortures and kills those daring todefy it and those seeking to protect it.

The majority of demonstrators havebeen drawn on to the streets not by anostalgic yearning for the ancien rgime

but by a bitter sense of betrayal overBrotherhood rule. The president, theyargue, has surrendered his legitimacy,through incompetence, through oppres-

sion, through a spectacular chain-break-ing of promises that he once offered up.

Morsi insisted he would reach out toall political factions and heal Egypt; hepromised consensus not partisanship, a

constitution to reflect the national willnot the private interests of the Brother-hood, a revolutionary pursuit of social

justice and an end to state violenceagainst citizens.

It was those promises that handedMorsi the presidency: millions reluc-tantly gave him their vote because they

believed in his commitment to therevolution. He failed on every measure,and now despite those who believe

democracy is nothing more than a singleballot twice a decade many Egyptiansare loth to hang around for anotherthree years to hold him to account andget their revolution back on track.

So, we find ourselves in the su r-real situation where many are cheer-ing a new military intervention in tothe political arena. Some protesters,remembering the bloodshed delivered

by the army in 2011, refuse to cheer.These are people carrying No Mubarak,No Military, No Morsi placards. Butthey are outnumbered by those whocautiously hope the military can forceMorsis departure and bring fresh elec-tions, offering a renewed chance for amore revolutionary candidate.

The return of people to the streets, onthis epic scale, can be seen as a powerfulstep forward. Time and again Egyptianshave refused to accept elite settlementsforced upon them; the Mubarak regime,the junta, now the Brotherhood. All wereexposed and rejected by grassroots force.

Anti-Morsi protesters in a square in Alexandria yesterday. President Morsi, below, still clings to offi ce despite an army ultimatum Photograph: Asmaa Waguih/Reuters

Jack Shenker Cairo

It seems Egyptsgrassroots revolt isrefusing to stay in itsneatly packaged box

AnalysisA bitter sense of betrayal, a backlash the revolution continues