Thursday Weather Briefing for December 27, 2018

GENERAL OVERVIEW (significant forecast changes in red):

• Additional very nice rains near term in northern growing areas of Brazil then mostly below normal rainfall for

the 6-10/11-15 day periods. Fairly limited rains in southern growing areas (and Paraguay) over about the next

week then better rains return. 90s for highs on the increase again in southern growing areas through January 3

• Big rains in Argentina for today through Sunday and again for Tuesday/Wednesday. Some 90s for highs for

today through Saturday and again for Monday through Wednesday

• Big storm system continues to impact the Corn Belt today, notable rains in southeastern areas for Monday, then

a drier pattern. Very cold in the west tomorrow/Saturday and throughout the region for Monday-Wednesday;

generally warm conditions otherwise

• Very wet pattern in the Mid-South through Monday and in the Southeast through January 3. Some cold

conditions for January 2-3 otherwise no notable cold in the two-week forecast

• Plains storm finishes today then dry weather for tomorrow through at least January 8. Turning colder near term

and staying cold/very cold through at least January 2

• Significant additional snow in southeastern parts of the Northern Plains today. Very cold for the rest of the week

and again for Monday to Wednesday then likely turning warmer

• More snow cover to be put down in FSU winter grain areas with lots of below normal temperatures in eastern

areas for the 1-5 day period and in much of the region for the 6-10/11-15 day time frames

• Much better rains to fall in South African corn areas for tomorrow through the rest of the two-week forecast

BRAZIL/PARAGUAY:

• Rainfall will average near to slightly below normal in northern corn and soybean growing areas of Brazil over the

next two weeks. Two-week rainfall totals will be mostly 3-6”, though more on the order of 2-4” in the MaToPiBa

region. Heaviest rains will be in northwestern through southeastern Mato Grosso, southern Goias, northern Mato

High temperatures yesterday (left) and 18-hour rainfall totals through midnight CST (right, soybean areas shaded)

Grosso do Sul, southern Minas Gerais, and northern Sao Paulo. Easily the best rains over the next two weeks will

fall for the 1-5 day period (i.e. today through Monday), with today’s forecast still showing a downtrend in rain

amounts for the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods (probably a lot of additional 0.50-1.50” totals in the area during each

of those time frames). I do not see heat over the next two weeks as incredibly big (given the time of year it is),

though the coolest readings will be in the 1-5 day time frame with 90+ degrees more common as rainfall decreases

in the 6-10 and 11-15 day time frames.

• Two-week rainfall totals for southern growing areas of Brazil (and Paraguay) will average near normal. Two-week

rainfall totals will be on the order of 2-4”. For today through about January 2, the area in question will not be

“dry” as there will be a daily threat of especially afternoon and evening rainfall. Overall I think that the period in

question looks a little wetter than it did with yesterday’s forecast, but still at no point does that rain look to be

widespread and there will be large areas on every day that get nothing. Call total rainfall in that period as being

mostly 0.25-1.00”; locally much heavier but at the same time coverage poor enough where there will be areas

that get nothing. Look for rains to then increase in Rio Grande do Sul for January 3 and across the region for

January 4-5, with a fairly similar set-up for rain expected in the in the 11-15 day time frame. Temperatures will be

creeping higher near term, and eventually we will see some days through about January 3 when 90+ degrees are

quite widespread. It will then be much cooler for the final couple days of the 6-10 day period.

ARGENTINA:

• Two-week rainfall totals in the main corn, soybean,

and wheat growing areas of Argentina will be above

normal. Most of the main growing area will see rains

of 4.00-7.00” and locally heavier for the duration of

that period. Significant rain has started to return to a

sizable part of the region this morning (see the radar

picture to the right) there will be all sorts of rain

threats to monitor through the weekend (with

especially big rains for Saturday night). At least some

1-2” amounts will be recorded in that period, though

more on the order of 2-3+” in eastern Cordoba,

southern Santa Fe, and a big part of Buenos Aires.

There looks to be a brief break in the rain for

Monday, but very significant rains will arrive again for

Tuesday and Wednesday before rains subside to some degree for the rest of the two-week forecast (though still

far from a “dry” pattern even then; January 3-7 will probably be the “driest” part of the current two-week

forecast).

• Some part of the region is going to see highs of 90 or higher on a daily basis for today through Saturday. Sunday

and Monday are cooler days, then some areas of 90+ degree highs again for Tuesday/Wednesday before cooler

weather again moves in for the final three days of the 6-10 day period.

Argentine radar picture as of 4:10 AM CDT

BRAZIL/PARAGUAY RAINFALL FORECAST

STATE/REGION 1-5 DAY 6-10 DAY 11-15 DAY

MATOPIBA 0.50-2.00” Below Normal Below Normal

MATO GROSSO 1.00-4.00" Near/Below Normal Near/Below Normal

GOIAS 1.00-4.00" Near/Below Normal Below Normal

MINAS GERAIS 1.50-4.00” Near/Below Normal Below Normal

MGDS 0.75-2.50" Near Normal Near Normal

SAO PAULO 0.50-2.00” Near Normal Near/Below Normal

PARANA 0.50-1.00” Near Normal Near Normal

RGDS 0.25-0.75” Above Normal Above Normal

PARAGUAY 0.50-1.00” Near Normal Near/Above Normal

ARGENTINA RAINFALL FORECAST

STATE 1-5 DAY 6-10 DAY 11-15 DAY

CORDOBA 1.00-3.00” Above Normal Near/Above Normal

SANTA FE 1.00-3.00” Above Normal Near/Above Normal

BUENOS AIRES 1.00-3.00” Near/Above Normal Below/Near/Above Normal

LA PAMPA 0.50-2.00” Near/Above Normal Below Normal

ENTRE RIOS 0.75-1.75” Above Normal Above Normal

CORN BELT:

• Precipitation has been significant in central and

especially western parts of the region since yesterday

morning, and precipitation will remain quite

significant in a big part of the region for today before

just some lingering precipitation is seen in parts of

the region for tonight and tomorrow. The map on the

right shows current expectations on additional snow

accumulations (past 6 AM CST this morning). Winter

weather advisories and winter storm warnings cover

much of the area in question, though there are

blizzard warnings for big parts of the Dakotas, south-

central Nebraska, and western Kansas with winds

expected to be especially strong in those areas for

today and tonight before diminishing tomorrow. The storm system in question looks to be the only one of real

significance in the entire two-week forecast, though southeastern parts of the region will see significant rainfall

for Sunday night into Monday night (thus allowing 5-day rainfall totals to exceed 2” in areas near the Ohio River.

Much of the region looks to see nothing in the way of precipitation for the opening five days of 2019, and I am

clearly not excited about 11-15 day precipitation prospects either.

Three-day snowfall forecast past 6 AM CST today

• Warm/very warm temperatures will dominate today (a big part of the region will have highs of 50+ tomorrow

with southern areas reaching 60+). Western parts of the region will see much colder air move in for tomorrow

and Saturday but truly cold air never makes it into the east. Temperatures across the region will really warm for

Sunday before cold air again reaches west for Monday and it looks very cold (mostly much-below normal) for

Tuesday and Wednesday; snow covered areas could see sub-zero highs on Tuesday with some of those same

places going to 20+ degrees below normal for Wednesday morning’s lows). Rapid warning will then be seen for

January 3-4 and cold weather is largely absent for the rest of the two-week forecast (GFS and European ensembles

in somewhat better agreement today about the Week Two temperature forecast, with the GFS trending warmer

versus what it showed yesterday.

MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST:

• Rains will be seen in some part of the Mid-South on every day for today through Monday and in the Southeast for

today through January 3. Eventual 2-4” rains will be common across the region, though bigger 4-6” totals for

southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and northwestern Georgia. Much more limited

rain will be seen in the Mid-South starting on January 1 and in the Southeast starting January 4.

• Temperatures will be well above normal through Friday with readings 10-15+ degrees above normal on both days

for big parts of the area. The Mid-South will cool some for the weekend, but not the Southeast and the entire area

is warm for Monday. The Mid-South will cool for the middle of the week, then after likely some moderation again

(with today’s models overall in a little better agreement and trending towards warmer solutions).

PLAINS HRW WHEAT/CATTLE FEEDLOT AREAS:

• Some precipitation that will continue through the daytime hours today. The map on the previous page shows

current snowfall expectations past 6 AM CST; note that much of the major feedlot area in both the north and the

south is under at least a winter weather advisory, but big areas are under winter storm warnings or even blizzard

warnings (with winds very strong for today). This near-term storm looks to be the only one of significance for the

duration of the two-week forecast period (dry conditions should dominate for tomorrow through at least January

8.

• Colder air will work into western parts of the region today with below and much-below-normal temperatures

dominating for tomorrow through January 3. Tomorrow/Saturday and January 1-2 will be especially cold days with

teens, 20s, and 30s for highs common. For January 4

it will then not be nearly as cold in the region with

some above-normal readings eventually being

recorded.

NORTHERN PLAINS:

• Snowfall totals through 6 PM last evening in the

region are shown to the right, and the map on the

previous page shows additional snowfall

expectations past 6 AM CST this morning; winter

storm warnings and blizzard warnings (winds 24-hour snowfall totals through 6 PM CST last evening

especially strong for late today and tonight). This looks to be the only significant storm in the two-week forecast

(even with near-normal precipitation forecast for the 6-10 and 11-15 day time frames).

• Below and much below normal temperatures will dominate the region for today through the end of the week with

tomorrow being an especially cold day (could see some sub-zero highs that day with Saturday morning lows at

colder than -15 in a big part of the snow-covered area in the east). It will warm briefly for Sunday but cold again

for Monday through Wednesday (BITTER cold on Tuesday with snow-covered areas not getting to -10 for high

temperatures while low temperatures reach -20 to -25 and colder). Look for rapid warming to take place after

that (better model agreement on that point today).

OTHER AREAS OF INTEREST:

• Additional precipitation is going to be noted over the next ten days in winter grain areas of the former Soviet

Union; not real heavy but additional 0.25-0.75” totals. Temperatures will be turning colder near term and will

remain below normal in eastern parts of the region for the 1-5 day period and in much of the region for the 6-10

and 11-15 day time frames. It is not “extreme” cold but at times there will be sub-zero lows in parts of the area

(but snow cover is on the ground and more will be put down).

• Precipitation will be best in Europe for Germany, Poland and areas to the south over the next ten days but will be

quite light elsewhere (especially in France, England and Spain). Temperatures never look exceptionally cold and

in fact will average pretty easily above normal in the near term for especially Germany and Poland.

• Wheat areas of North Africa will see minimal rains over the next ten days. Rain is becoming badly needed in

Morocco.

• Rains will increase in South African corn areas starting tomorrow and will remain significant through the 6-10 and

11-15 day periods (all areas eventually seeing some very good totals).

• Significant moisture for the next ten days or even two weeks will be seen only in far southern parts of the North

China Plain (very common for the area to go into extended periods of dry weather for this time of year).

• Largely dry conditions will be seen in the main wheat growing area of Australia for the next ten days.

Additional maps shown on the next four pages.

Craig Solberg

515-505-0863

Twitter: @Craigsolberg

Afternoon highs yesterday (above) and 18-hour precipitation totals through midnight CST (below)

24-hour precipitation totals (wheat areas shaded)

24-hour precipitation totals (wheat areas shaded below)

24-hour precipitation (wheat areas shaded above, corn areas shaded below)

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