MORNING HIGHLIGHT

Equity Research

Friday, November 27, 2015

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

UNTR: Bumpy Road Ahead (UNTR IJ. Rp16,900. HOLD. TP Rp18,500)

United Tractors (UNTR) reported lowest Komatsu sales volume to only 71 units in October 2015 (-36.6% mom) with all sectors experienced a monthly decline. On yearly basis Komatsu sales volume declined by 42.2% yoy to only 1,870 units in 10M15. This was mainly due to unfavorable business activities in agribusiness, mining as well as the impact on slow progress on the infrastructure projects. With lower-than expected Komatsu sales volume, we cut our Komatsu sales volume forecast to 2,000 units for 2015. With commodity prices to remain weak and lower margin from mining contracting (MC) division, we maintain our HOLD recommendation with lower target price of Rp18,500 (DCF valuation with WACC of 14.8% and long-term growth of 3%) while we also roll-over valuation to 2016. Our target price represents 12.0x 2016F PE.

Previous Reports:

Construction: Speeding up the works-Snapshot20151126 10M15: Bank Mandiri-Snapshot20151125 KLBF: Facing the strong headwind -Snapshot20151119 ACES: Could not lift up to the expectation-Snapshot20151118 Auto: A winding road-Snapshot20151117 Banking: KUR:Quo Vadis? -Snapshot20151116 Cement: Signs of continued improvement in domestic cement

demand-Snapshot20151113 ITMG: 3Q15-better quarter on lower total cash cost, SILO: Licensing

Dilemma-Snapshot20151111

MARKET NEWS *Analysts’ comment inside

BKSL conduct debt restructuring of Rp190 bn (ID) GIAA set to expand USD500 mn (ID) MEDC aim 50% ownership in Gas and Steam Power Plant Java I (ID) WSKT has realized 93% of new contracts’ target (BI)

IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Buyback schedule

Code Buyback period Max buyback

(Rp bn)

Max price/share

(Rp)

MPMX 24-Aug 23-Nov 50 1,000

RALS 25-Aug 24-Nov 400 --.--

ARNA 25-Aug 25-Nov 18 --.--

Source: KSEI

MORNING HIGHLIGHT

Key Index

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 4,597 0.3 (12.1) 246

Thailand 1,366 (1.1) (8.8) 951

Philippines 7,063 0.1 (2.3) 126

Malaysia 1,683 (0.1) (4.4) 561

Singapore 2,885 (0.2) (14.3) 698

Regional

China 3,636 (0.3) 12.4 100,153

Hong Kong 22,489 (0.0) (4.7) 8,003

Japan 19,944 0.5 14.3 10,237

Korea 2,038 0.4 6.4 3,703

Taiwan 8,485 1.2 (8.8) 2,430

India 25,959 0.7 (5.6) 429

NASDAQ 5,116 0.3 8.0 49,537

Dow Jones 17,813 0.0 (0.1) 6,030

Currency and Interest Rate

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,780 (1.0) (0.8) (10.8)

SBI rate % 7.10 0.4 0.4 (0.1)

10y Gov Indo bond 8.59 (0.1) (0.1) 0.8

Hard Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 53 0.1 (0.1) (15.2)

Gold US$/toz 1,072 0.0 (8.1) (9.5)

Nickel US$/mt.ton 9,165 3.3 (12.1) (39.2)

Tin US$/mt.ton 14,961 1.4 (4.1) (23.0)

Soft Commodities

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 3,354 (0.9) 4.8 12.9

Corn US$/mt.ton 139 0.9 (2.5) (2.6)

Crude Oil US$/barrel 45 (1.5) (4.4) (20.7)

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,062 (0.6) (5.5) (10.2)

Rubber USd/kg 116 0.4 (6.4) (24.1)

Pulp US$/tonne 819 N/A (1.2) (12.1)

Coffee US$/60kgbag 98 - 1.6 40.0

Sugar US$/MT 404 0.4 3.1 3.4

Wheat US$/ton 133 (0.2) (5.3) (21.2)

Source: Bloomberg

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/Morning%20pack%2020151126.pdf








Equity Research



PT Danareksa Sekuritas

Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709

Equity Research Team

Sales team

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5831 Coal, Heavy Equipment, Metal Mining

Stefanus Darmagiri

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5817 Pharmaceutical

Armando Marulitua

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5820 Property, Retail

Anindya Saraswati

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5824 Research Associate

Puti Adani [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Research Associate

Antonia Febe Hartono

[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151

Ermawati A. Erman


Novrita E. Putrianti


Ehrliech Suhartono


Yunita L. Nababan


Martin Joshua


Laksmita Armandani


Muhammad Hardiansyah [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121

Tuty Sutopo [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137

Upik Yuzarni


Kevin Giarto

[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5616 Strategy, Banking

A. Indrajatri Suwono, CFA

Friday, 27 November 2015

HEAVY EQUIPMENT/COMPANY UPDATE

United Tractors Bumpy Road Ahead

United Tractors (UNTR) reported lowest Komatsu sales volume to only 71 units in October 2015 (-36.6% mom) with all sectors experienced a monthly decline. On yearly basis Komatsu sales volume declined by 42.2% yoy to only 1,870 units in 10M15. This was mainly due to unfavorable business activities in agribusiness, mining as well as the impact on slow progress on the infrastructure projects. With lower-than expected Komatsu sales volume, we cut our Komatsu sales volume forecast to 2,000 units for 2015. With commodity prices to remain weak and lower margin from mining contracting (MC) division, we maintain our HOLD recommendation with lower target price of Rp18,500 (DCF valuation with WACC of 14.8% and long-term growth of 3%) while we also roll-over valuation to 2016. Our target price represents 12.0x 2016F PE.

The lowest Komatsu sales volume in October 2015 Komatsu reported the lowest sales volume to only 71 units in October 2015 with all sector reported a monthly decline. As such, on cumulative basis, Komatsu sales volume declined by 42.2% yoy to 1,870 units in 10M15. The greatest declined came from agri (-65.2% yoy) and mining sector (-52.3% yoy) was due to unfavorable commodity prices in those sectors. The impact on slow progress on the infrastructure projects reflected on lower Komatsu sales volume in the construction sector by 31.3% yoy. Only forestry sector managed to maintain its sales volume. With commodity price to remain lackluster, we are only expecting monthly Komatsu sales volume of 70 units in the remaining months 2015. As such, we further cut our Komatsu sales volume forecast to 2,000 units for 2015.

Weak operational performance at mining contracting in October 2015 We also noted on weak monthly operational performance at subsidiary Pamapersada Nusantara (PAMA) with its coal production declined by 6.6% mom in October 2015. Coupled with unfavorable weather condition in 1Q15, the total coal production dropped 4.8% yoy to 90.1mn tons in 10M15. Yet with the overburden (OB) removal declined by 3.4% yoy, stripping ratio improved slightly to 7.3x in 10M15 from 7.2x in 10M14.

Bumpy road ahead Despite an improvement in the gross margin (before elimination) in the mining contracting (MC) to 25.5% in 9M15 from 23.5% in 9M14, thanks to cost efficiency and impact of favorable exchange rate; we still expect a decline in the margin from mining contracting (MC) division for 2016, which will be attributable to a) lower overburden removal (OB) by 10 – 15% yoy. This will also lead to lower stripping ratio. b) Coal miners will continue to renegotiate lower price leading to lower revenue and c) strengthening of IDR vs. USD to the current level. Likewise, with the commodity prices outlook to remain lackluster, we expect a further decline in the Komatsu sales volume to 1,800 units in 2016, slightly below the management guidance of 1,900 units.

2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F

Revenue, IDR bn 51,012 53,142 50,344 48,952 51,008

EBITDA, IDR bn 10,446 11,819 12,729 12,450 13,267

EBITDA Growth, % -4.5 13.1 7.7 -2.2 6.6

Net profit, IDRbn 4,834 5,370 6,111 5,756 6,039

EPS, IDR 1,296 1,440 1,638 1,543 1,619

EPS growth, % -16.4 11.1 13.8 -5.8 4.9

BVPS, Rp 8,498 9,398 10,438 11,336 12,329

DPS, Rp 518 576 655 617 648

Net Gearing, % 6.5 -9.0 -18.2 -20.8 -29.8

PER, x 13.0 11.7 10.3 11.0 10.4

PBV, x 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4

EV/EBITDA, x 5.7 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.5

Yield, % 3.1 3.4 3.9 3.7 3.8

HOLD Target Price, Rp 18,500

Upside 9.5%

UNTR IJ/UNTR.JK

Last Price, Rp 16,900

No. of shares (bn) 3.7

Market Cap, Rpbn 63,039 (US$ mn) 4,585

3M T/O, US$mn 4.52

Last Recommendation

29-Jul-15 HOLD Rp19,800

25-May-15 HOLD Rp22,200

28-Apr-15 HOLD Rp22,200

UNTRrelative to JCI Index

Market Recommendation

Consensus

Our Cons % Diff

Target Price, IDR 18,500 20,050 (7.7)

EPS 2015F, IDR 1,638 1,763 (7.1)

PE 2015F, x 10.3 9.6 7.6

Stefanus Darmagiri (62-21) 2955 5777 ext3530 [email protected] Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

UNTR (LHS) Relative to JCI (RHS)

(Rp) (%)

11

12

4

Buy

Hold

Sell

27 November 2015 United Tractors

2

Another adjustment in mining properties will lower net profit in 4Q15 UNTR is currently looking to adjust the carrying value of its coal mining properties due to the continuation of weak coal prices, which will take effect on UNTR net profit in 4Q15. As of the end of 9M15, UNTR reported mining properties value of about Rp9.1tn, included a minority interest portion at some concessionary areas, where the company’s ownership is less than 100%. But, we expect the mining asset impairment in 2015 will be lower than previous year impairment with the expectation of lower cut on base coal price forecast with current year-to-date average coal price of around US$55 – 58/ton. UNTR booked impairment on mining asset of Rp2.7tn (before minority interest) in 2014 with base coal price forecast was cut by 19 – 24% to USD65 – 90/ton in 2014 from USD85 – 111/ton in 2013. Cutting capex for 2016 on continuation weak commodity price UNTR plans to cut its capex budget to about USD250mn for 2016 from this year expectation of USD300mn and initial target of USD400mn following the impact on unfavorable commodity prices as well as slow-down in the mining contracting business. Most of the capex was under Pama and only USD25mn for United Tractors parent company. As of 9M15, UNTR has spent of about Rp2.2tn for the capex.

Source: United Tractors Source: United Tractors

Source: United Tractors Source: United Tractors

Exhibit 1. Komatsu sales volume Exhibit 2. The lowest Komatsu sales volume in Oct 2015

Exhibit 3. Lower coal production in October 2015 Exhibit 4. And also for coal sales volume

23% 15%

28%

35%

14%

22%

35%

28%

3,233

1,870

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

10M14 10M15

Mining Forestry ConstructionAgro Total

units

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

(units)

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Coal Production (LHS) Stripping Ratio (RHS)

(m tons) (x)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900


x 000 tons


3

Source: Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 5. Changes in our forecast assumptions

New Previous Change (%)

2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Komatsu (units)

2,000 1,800 2,000 2,300 2,500 2,700 (13.0) (28.0) (25.9)

Coal Production (mn tons) 113 109 109 115 115 121 (2.0) (5.0) (9.5)

Stripping ratio (x)

7.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 16.7 8.3 0.0

Coal Sales Volume (mn tons) 5.9 5.9 6.5 5.9 6.2 6.9 0.0 (4.8) (4.8)

Coal Price Assumption (USD/ton) 58.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 0.0 (6.8) (3.3)

USD/IDR Assumption

13,500 13,400 13,000 13,300 13,000 12,500 1.5 3.1 4.0

Revenue (IDR bn)

50,344 48,952 51,008 51,611 54,925 57,836 (2.5) (10.9) (11.8)

EBITDA (IDR bn)

12,729 12,450 13,267 11,728 12,981 14,158 8.5 (4.1) (6.3)

Net Profit (IDR bn)

6,111 5,756 6,039 5,753 6,037 6,535 6.2 (4.7) (7.6)


4

Exhibit 5. Profit and Loss, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Turnover 51,012 53,142 50,344 48,952 51,008

COGS (41,496) (41,071) (39,195) (38,468) (40,010)

Gross Profit 9,517 12,070 11,149 10,484 10,998

Operating Expenses (2,776) (3,204) (3,045) (3,020) (3,170)

Operating Profit 6,741 8,866 8,104 7,464 7,828

Other Income/expenses (137) (2,398) (122) (48) (190)

Net Interest (17) 154 177 267 422

Pre-tax Profit 6,587 6,622 8,159 7,683 8,060

Tax (1,789) (1,782) (2,040) (1,921) (2,015)

Minority Interest 35 530 (8) (7) (6)

Net Profit 4,834 5,370 6,111 5,756 6,039

Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas

Exhibit 6.Balance Sheet, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Current Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents 7,936 10,060 10,426 15,110 18,886

Account Receivables 12,141 13,587 12,965 12,473 12,996

Inventories, Net 6,176 7,770 7,627 7,388 7,637

Other Current Assets 1,561 2,163 2,465 2,631 2,865

Total Current Assets 27,814 33,580 33,483 37,602 42,385

Fixed Assets 26,602 22,774 22,348 20,862 19,423

Goodwill 227 364 345 268 279

Other LT Assets 2,719 3,574 3,585 3,519 3,727

Total Assets 57,362 60,292 59,760 62,251 65,814

Current Liabilities ST Debt 1,641 1,279 530 513 533

Other Current Liabilities 12,920 15,019 12,648 11,364 11,286

Total Current Liabilities 14,561 16,298 13,177 11,877 11,818

LT Debt 3,289 2,109 1,578 1,575 1,097

Other LT Liabilities 3,864 3,309 2,538 2,754 3,091

Minority Interests 2,429 1,917 2,397 2,331 2,429

Shareholders' Equity 33,220 36,660 40,070 43,715 47,379

Total Equity & Liabilities 57,362 60,292 59,760 62,251 65,814



5

Exhibit 7. Cash Flow, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Net Profit 4,834 5,370 6,111 5,756 6,039

Depreciation and amortization 3,705 2,953 4,626 4,986 5,439

Change in Working Capital 2,471 (1,606) (1,683) (719) (1,085)

Others Non-Cash 141 2,307 (792) 221 220

Operating Cash Flow 11,150 9,024 8,261 10,243 10,613

Capex (3,464) (2,857) (4,200) (3,500) (4,000)

Investment 32 (451) 55 42 (62)

Others Investing Activities (65) (2) 412 29 58

Investing Cash Flow (3,498) (3,310) (3,733) (3,429) (4,003)

Net Change in Debt (1,029) (1,074) (983) (10) (480)

New Capital 0 0 0 0 0

Dividend (2,189) (1,996) (2,233) (2,404) (2,335)

Others Financing Activities (494) (520) (946) 283 (18)

Financing Cash Flow (3,712) (3,589) (4,162) (2,130) (2,833)

Net change in cash 3,941 2,124 366 4,685 3,776

Net cash (debt) at beg. 3,995 7,936 10,060 10,426 15,110

Net cash (debt) at end. 7,936 10,060 10,426 15,110 18,886


Exhibit 8.Key Ratios, Rpbn

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

Gross Margin, % 18.7 22.7 22.1 21.4 21.6

EBITDA Margin, % 20.5 22.2 25.3 25.4 26.0

Operating Margin, % 13.2 16.7 16.1 15.2 15.3

Net Margin, % 9.5 10.1 12.1 11.8 11.8

ROE, % 15.4 15.4 15.9 13.7 13.3

ROA, % 9.0 9.1 10.2 9.4 9.4

Net Gearing, % (9.0) (18.2) (20.8) (29.8) (36.4)


Equity Research



BKSL conduct debt restructuring of Rp190 bn (ID)

Sentul City (BKSL) conduct debt restructuring for its subsidiary, Bukit Jonggol Asri (BJA) with a total value Rp190.9bn, which

consists of Rp20bn checking account and Rp170.9bn long-term loans. Currently, 80% of the BJA shares owned by the BKSL. BKSL

has signed the deed of agreement to increase cash funding deficiency, cost overrun, and subordination on 23 November 2015 to

ensure repayment of BJA loan obligations. In this restructuring, BKSL will provide collateral in the form of land bank in Karang

Tengah, Bogor under area of 746,656m2.

GIAA set to expand USD500 mn (ID)

Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) has set aside USD500 mn expansion next year. From this budgeted capex, USD160 mn be absorbed by

GIAA, while the remaining will be allocated to its subsidiary, Citilink Indonesia, GMF AeroAsia, Gapura Angkasa, and

Aeurowisata. Source of funding comes from internal cash and external financing. GIAA also reviewing the option bond issuance

and bank loans in 2016, depending on the performance by the end of this year. The majority of capex will be used be used for

aircraft pre-delivery payment, and strengthening IT systems and e-commerce.

MEDC aim 50% ownership in Gas and Steam Power Plant Java I (ID)

Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG) and Medco Energy International (MEDC) through Medco Power Indonesia aiming for a 50%

ownership in Gas and Steam Power Plant (PLTGU) Java I with a capacity of 2X800 MW. Currently, Medco Power and Mitsui Co

Ltd is undergoing a tender process for the project. Project value is estimated at USD1.6bn

WSKT has realized 93% of new contracts’ target (BI)

Waskita Karya (WSKT) has realized Rp 27.9tn of new contracts acqusition or 93% from the total 2015 target of Rp 30tn. Largest

contribution comes from SOE project by 60%, government 26%, and 14% from private projects. WSKT order book for November

2015 reached Rp 47.8tn with Rp 19.9tn is a carried over order from last year.

MARKET NEWS

Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2015

Danareksa Universe 2,721,727 188,686 210,186 290.0 323.0 5% 11% 14.4 12.9 12.0 10.9 2.4 2.1 17.9

Auto 263,198 24,706 29,222 452.6 535.3 15% 18% 10.7 9.0 8.8 7.6 1.9 1.6 18.6

Astra International HOLD 6,225 8,300 252,010 23,976 28,096 592 694 497 567 16% 17% 10.5 9.0 9.0 7.7 1.9 1.6 33.5 19.1

Gajah Tunggal BUY 580 1,500 2,021 266 633 76 182 140 127 -1% 138% 7.6 3.2 4.3 4.2 0.3 0.3 95.0 4.4

Selamat Sempurna BUY 4,900 5,300 7,054 465 493 323 342 332 352 19% 6% 15.2 14.3 9.2 8.5 4.9 4.1 net cash 36.0

Banks 957,445 75,582 81,994 701.6 761.1 2% 8% 12.7 11.7 2.3 2.0 19.5

BCA HOLD 13,525 13,500 333,459 19,966 21,921 725 800 725 800 8% 10% 18.7 16.9 NA NA 3.7 3.1 NA 23.8

BNI BUY 5,125 5,850 95,574 7,506 8,596 402 461 402 461 -30% 15% 12.7 11.1 NA NA 1.5 1.3 NA 12.1

BRI BUY 11,475 13,400 283,079 24,352 25,863 987 1,048 987 1,048 0% 6% 11.6 10.9 NA NA 2.5 2.1 NA 23.0

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,270 1,450 13,440 1,588 1,964 151 187 151 187 42% 24% 8.4 6.8 NA NA 1.0 0.9 NA 12.4

Bank Mandiri BUY 9,275 11,450 216,417 20,144 21,413 863 918 863 918 1% 6% 10.7 10.1 NA NA 1.8 1.6 NA 18.2

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan BUY 2,650 4,500 15,477 2,026 2,237 347 383 347 383 8% 10% 7.6 6.9 NA NA 1.1 1.0 NA 15.8

Cement 151,790 12,525 15,375 725 890 7% 23% 12.1 9.9 7.3 6.4 2.3 2.0 20.0

Holcim HOLD 1,070 2,300 8,199 923 1,213 120 158 118 152 12% 31% 8.9 6.8 5.1 3.9 0.8 0.7 30.0 9.1

Indocement BUY 21,000 28,300 77,306 5,741 6,595 1,559 1,792 1,555 1,788 8% 15% 13.5 11.7 7.8 6.6 2.7 2.4 net cash 21.2

Semen Indonesia BUY 11,175 14,500 66,285 5,861 7,567 988 1,276 988 1,276 5% 29% 11.3 8.8 7.4 6.9 2.5 2.1 12.3 23.2

Construction 108,829 4,317 5,350 99 123 17% 24% 25.2 20.3 11.9 10.2 3.2 2.8 14.4

Jasa Marga BUY 4,895 8,000 33,286 1,531 1,779 480 614 513 657 19% 28% 10.2 8.0 11.7 10.4 2.7 2.4 95.8 12.8

Wijaya Karya HOLD 2,890 2,500 17,771 573 638 93 104 98 109 -7% 11% 31.0 27.9 12.6 10.6 3.2 2.9 29.0 10.9

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,790 4,600 18,353 694 856 143 177 150 185 30% 23% 26.5 21.4 10.7 9.0 6.2 5.0 39.2 25.8

Adhi Karya BUY 2,270 UR 8,083 399 531 112 149 123 163 23% 33% 20.3 15.2 9.6 8.1 3.9 3.2 66.6 20.8

Waskita Karya BUY 1,715 2,000 23,274 725 1,054 53 78 53 78 4% 46% 32.1 22.1 15.4 12.9 2.7 2.4 net cash 12.5

Wika Beton HOLD 925 1,350 8,062 396 491 45 56 46 57 32% 24% 20.4 16.4 10.6 8.4 3.2 2.8 net cash 17.1

Consumer 413,976 13,419 14,186 488 516 7% 6% 30.8 29.2 18.2 17.2 7.3 6.1 25.9

Indofood CBP BUY 12,575 13,800 73,324 3,033 3,308 520 567 520 567 16% 9% 24.2 22.2 16.6 15.7 4.6 4.2 net cash 20.3

Indofood BUY 5,475 7,100 48,073 3,704 4,059 422 462 563 610 -5% 10% 13.0 11.8 6.0 5.8 1.7 1.6 19.5 13.8

Unilever SELL 37,050 30,475 282,692 5,889 6,234 772 817 772 817 3% 6% 48.0 45.4 33.0 31.3 27.7 17.3 net cash 80.4

Nippon Indosari Corpindo BUY 1,280 1,680 6,479 266 309 53 61 53 61 41% 16% 24.3 20.9 13.8 11.2 5.4 4.5 59.5 24.7

Mandom BUY 16,950 21,170 3,408 526 276 2,618 1,375 279 1,373 202% -47% 6.5 12.3 7.2 6.3 2.0 1.9 net cash 35.7

Healthcare 117,576 2,981 3,387 211 266 20% 26% 39.4 34.7 24.9 21.2 6.8 6.1 18.6

Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,385 1,350 64,922 2,040 2,274 44 49 43 49 -1% 12% 31.8 28.5 20.8 18.1 6.2 5.6 net cash 20.6

Kimia Farma BUY 990 1,200 5,498 259 303 47 55 42 47 12% 17% 21.1 18.0 14.1 12.2 2.9 2.5 0.7 13.9

Siloam Hospital HOLD 9,575 10,500 11,070 93 134 80 116 84 127 49% 44% 119.1 82.8 21.5 16.6 6.3 5.9 16.1 5.5

Mitra Keluarga BUY 2,480 2,995 36,086 589 676 40 46 40 45 14% 15% 61.3 53.4 55.2 46.8 10.8 9.7 net cash 22.9

Heavy Equipment 64,404 5,973 6,297 1,307 1,378 7% 5% 10.8 10.2 4.8 4.0 1.5 1.4 14.6

Hexindo Adiperkasa HOLD 1,625 3,650 1,365 220 260 262 309 238 273 13% 18% 6.2 5.3 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.5 net cash 8.0

United Tractors HOLD 16,900 18,500 63,039 5,753 6,037 1,542 1,619 1,542 1,619 7% 5% 11.0 10.4 4.9 4.1 1.6 1.4 net cash 15.1

Mining 72,473 6,396 7,645 80 96 -25% 20% 11.3 9.5 3.9 3.6 0.7 0.7 6.3

Adaro Energy BUY 585 900 18,712 2,249 2,054 70 64 70 64 9% -9% 8.3 9.1 3.4 3.1 0.5 0.5 32.0 6.4

Timah BUY 545 850 4,059 157 237 21 32 21 32 -75% 51% 25.8 17.1 6.3 5.9 0.8 0.7 24.9 2.9

Vale Indonesia BUY 1,770 3,700 17,587 1,386 1,790 140 180 140 180 -36% 29% 12.7 9.8 4.2 3.5 0.8 0.8 net cash 6.2

Aneka Tambang BUY 352 472 8,459 (698) (112) (73) (12) (73) (12) -6% -84% (4.8) (29.9) 13.8 10.5 0.5 0.5 13.3 -4.8

Bukit Asam BUY 5,900 8,400 13,594 1,560 1,674 718 770 718 770 -23% 7% 8.2 7.7 5.9 5.3 1.4 1.3 net cash 17.4

Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 7,050 10,600 7,966 1,622 1,800 1,435 1,593 1,435 1,593 -23% 11% 4.9 4.4 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 net cash 15.2

Harum Energy HOLD 775 1,750 2,095 119 202 44 75 44 75 -53% 69% 17.6 10.4 1.1- 1.0- 0.5 0.6 net cash 3.1

Plantation 46,746 5,510 5,938 211 227 11% 8% 8.5 7.9 4.7 4.2 1.2 1.1 14.9

Astra Agro Lestari BUY 18,500 27,100 29,133 2,770 2,832 1,759 1,798 1,759 1,798 4% 2% 10.5 10.3 6.3 5.8 2.5 2.3 net cash 24.5

Sampoerna Agro BUY 1,450 2,600 2,741 464 550 245 291 253 299 18% 19% 5.9 5.0 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.7 31.8 14.5

PP London Sumatra HOLD 1,285 2,090 8,767 1,055 1,133 155 166 155 166 8% 7% 8.3 7.7 4.0 3.3 1.1 1.0 net cash 13.9

Salim Ivomas Pratama BUY 386 850 6,105 1,221 1,423 77 90 87 98 33% 17% 5.0 4.3 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.4 37.6 8.2

Property 101,068 8,896 10,205 87 99 -10% 15% 11.4 9.9 10.0 8.7 2.0 1.8 18.8

Alam Sutera BUY 346 700 6,799 1,254 1,516 64 77 73 85 15% 21% 5.4 4.5 6.3 5.3 1.0 0.8 75.3 18.9

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,735 2,100 33,393 2,369 2,617 135 150 140 156 -36% 10% 12.8 11.6 11.2 9.9 2.2 1.9 net cash 16.6

Metropolitan Land BUY 215 620 1,646 290 322 38 43 38 43 14% 11% 5.6 5.1 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.7 27.7 14.2

Surya Semesta Internusa HOLD 580 1,040 2,729 464 415 99 88 103 93 32% -11% 5.9 6.6 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.8 net cash 16.9

Lippo Karawaci BUY 1,340 1,200 30,924 1,565 1,763 72 82 58 64 -38% 13% 18.5 16.4 13.7 11.8 1.9 1.8 27.3 10.1

PP Properti BUY 193 242 2,711 1,626 1,963 21 26 22 28 172% 27% 9.4 7.4 6.5 6.1 1.2 1.1 8.8 100.6

Summarecon BUY 1,585 2,045 22,866 1,327 1,609 92 111 92 111 -5% 21% 17.2 14.2 12.6 10.4 4.6 3.7 57.1 29.6

Telco & Infrastructure 444,397 19,313 22,528 141 165 28% 17% 23.0 19.7 6.6 6.0 3.7 3.4 17.0

XL Axiata BUY 3,770 4,710 32,201 356 680 42 80 42 80 -140% 91% 90.3 47.3 6.0 5.5 2.2 2.2 120.7 2.5

Indosat BUY 5,500 4,200 29,887 312 588 57 108 38 89 -152% 89% 95.8 50.8 4.5 4.1 1.9 1.8 132.4 2.0

Telkom HOLD 2,950 3,050 297,360 15,554 16,458 158 168 158 168 6% 6% 18.6 17.6 6.0 5.5 4.1 3.8 net cash 22.1

Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 4,200 4,600 42,852 1,585 2,040 155 200 158 202 89% 29% 27.0 21.0 13.0 10.9 6.9 5.5 108.8 29.2

Tower Bersama HOLD 6,700 8,600 32,137 1,528 2,387 300 429 300 429 9% 43% 22.3 15.6 13.1 10.5 2.8 2.3 129.0 19.3

MNC Sky Vision HOLD 1,410 1,230 9,960 (22) 375 (3) 53 (2) 1 -86% -1776% (445.7) 26.6 10.0 8.7 6.2 5.0 162.0 -1.4

Tranportation 17,327 1,253 1,554 501 621 62% 24% 13.8 11.1 7.8 6.3 3.9 3.1 32.4

Blue Bird BUY 6,925 12,200 17,327 1,253 1,554 501 621 488 608 62% 24% 13.8 11.1 7.8 6.3 3.9 3.1 43.9 32.4

Utility 71,149 11,088 10,313 457 425 3% -7% 6.4 6.9 4.3 4.7 1.7 1.6 28.7

PGN BUY 2,935 6,650 71,149 11,088 10,313 457 425 5,775 5,313 3% -7% 6.4 6.9 4.3 4.7 1.7 1.6 net cash 28.7

Retail 26,254 961 1,135 37 44 -2% 18% 27.3 23.1 11.6 10.2 2.8 2.7 11.0

Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 4,400 4,650 7,304 161 275 97 166 107 175 117% 71% 45.3 26.5 8.3 7.1 2.3 2.2 72.4 5.6

Ramayana SELL 725 660 5,145 243 255 34 36 34 36 -31% 5% 21.1 20.2 10.2 9.4 1.5 1.5 net cash 7.2

Ace Hardware HOLD 805 745 13,806 557 604 32 35 31 34 0% 9% 24.8 22.8 17.3 15.6 5.3 4.7 net cash 22.4

Net Gearing ROE EPS Growth PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)Core EPS (Rp)Equity

Valuation Rating Price (Rp)

Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp)

Equity Research



LEADERS Price as on

Code 26-Nov-2015 25-Nov-2015 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

MNC Sky Vision MSKY 1,410 1,330 6.0 25.9 2.2 (11.9) HOLD

Indocement INTP 21,000 20,000 5.0 (0.1) 2.3 (16.0) BUY

Metropolitan Land MTLA 215 206 4.4 3.4 (11.2) (51.2) BUY

Bank Mandiri BMRI 9,275 8,925 3.9 5.7 (3.9) (13.9) BUY

Vale Indonesia INCO 1,770 1,710 3.5 (3.5) (27.0) (51.2) BUY

Lippo Karawaci LPKR 1,340 1,300 3.1 8.5 1.9 31.4 BUY

Ramayana RALS 725 705 2.8 - 5.1 (8.2) SELL

Timah TINS 545 530 2.8 (0.9) (17.4) (55.7) BUY

Indosat ISAT 5,500 5,350 2.8 11.7 34.8 35.8 BUY

Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,385 1,350 2.6 3.0 (4.8) (24.3) HOLD

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on

Code 26-Nov-2015 25-Nov-2015 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA 580 595 (2.5) 1.8 (20.5) (45.8) HOLD

Siloam Hospital SILO 9,575 9,775 (2.0) 1.6 (20.2) (30.1) HOLD

Unilever UNVR 37,050 37,800 (2.0) 1.0 (4.1) 14.7 SELL

Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP 386 393 (1.8) (1.8) (15.7) (45.2) BUY

Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,935 2,985 (1.7) (4.6) (3.3) (51.1) BUY

Aneka Tambang ANTM 352 357 (1.4) (5.4) (7.6) (60.7) HOLD

United Tractors UNTR 16,900 17,100 (1.2) (1.7) (16.6) (2.6) HOLD

Tower Bersama TBIG 6,700 6,775 (1.1) 3.9 (10.7) (30.9) HOLD

Astra Agro Lestari AALI 18,500 18,700 (1.1) 0.8 (11.4) (23.7) BUY

Selamat Sempurna SMSM 4,900 4,950 (1.0) (5.3) (2.0) 3.2 BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

Equity Research



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MORNING HIGHLIGHT

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