Morgan Stanley Global Electricity & Energy Conference

41
Morgan Stanley Global Electricity & Energy Conference March 25, 2004 Lewis Hay III – Chairman, President & CEO

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Morgan Stanley Global Electricity & Energy Conference. March 25, 2004. Lewis Hay III – Chairman, President & CEO. Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Morgan Stanley Global Electricity & Energy Conference

Page 1: Morgan Stanley Global Electricity & Energy Conference

Morgan StanleyGlobal Electricity & Energy Conference

March 25, 2004

Lewis Hay III – Chairman, President & CEO

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Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results

Any statements made herein about future operating results or other future events are forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results or events to vary is contained in the Appendix herein.

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FPL Group

FPL FPL Energy

Two Strong Businesses

1 Year ended 12/31/032 See Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP and adjusted earnings

• Largest electric utility in Florida• Vertically integrated, retail rate- regulated utility• 4.1 million customers1

• $8.3 billion operating revenue1

• 5-year average annual growth in net income of 4%

• Successful wholesale generator• U.S. market leader in wind-generation • 11,041 mw in operation1

• $1.3 billion operating revenue1

• 5-year average annual growth in adjusted net income of 40%2

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Performance Rewarded in Capital MarketsIndexed Return Since 12/31/98

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-0450

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Ind

exe

d R

etu

rn (

%)

35.6%

10.4%

(1.4)%

FPL Group

S&P 500 Index

Dow Jones Utilities Index

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FPL: A Leading Electric Utility

• Attractive growth• Superior cost performance• Operational excellence• Constructive regulatory

environment• Delivering value to customers

and shareholders

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FPL: Strong Top-Line Growth

37%

36%

3%19%

3%4%

Other

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Strong Demand Growth(10 years)

• Customer growth of 2.1% 1

• Underlying usage growth of 1.5% 1

1 From 1993-20032 From 1992-20023 As of 12/31/034 In 2002. Source: EEI Statistics Department

% of Revenues by Customer Class

FPL 3 IndustryAverage 4

56%

42%

3.6%

2.4%

Av

g a

nn

ua

l kW

h

FPL 1 IndustryAverage 2

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1.79 1.78

1.79

1.26

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Cen

ts

FPL: Consistent Track Record of Cost Management

O&M per Retail kwh

Industry

FPL

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FPL: Operational Excellence

Outage Time per Customer (minutes)

68

137

FPL IndustryAverage

1 FPL data as of 2003; industry average data as of 20022 Investor owned utilities with at least 5,000 megawatts. Source: North American Reliability Council (NERC)

Fossil Generation Equivalent Forced Outage Rate

(%)

2003 2002

FPL 3.05

FPL2.4

Good

Top Decile

3.7

Top Quartile

5.2

2

1

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FPL: Constructive Regulatory Environment

• Florida regulation is structurally sound– appointed commission– pass-through of fuel and purchased power costs

• Commission has a long history of “win-win” regulatory agreements

– mid 1990’s: accelerated amortization of regulatory assets and plant– 1999 - 2002: 6% price reduction; revenue sharing introduced; no official ROE– 2002 - 2005: 7% price reduction; revenue sharing continued; no official ROE

• Current legislative session considering a new environmental bill

– new, stricter emissions requirements– environmental costs to be recovered through clause over 7 years– clause rates to be frozen for 7 years with true-up mechanisms– base rates frozen for 5 - 7 years– continuation of revenue sharing mechanism– legislative session runs through April

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FPL: Delivering Real Value to Customers

• Base rates lower than 1985– 16% nominal

– 50% constant dollars

• Total rates below national average• Operational performance better than industry

in most areas• Environmental leadership• Investing to meet the growth needs of our

customers

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200

400

600

800

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Ad

jus

ted

Ne

t In

co

me

($

mm

)

-

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

Del

iver

ed S

ales

(m

illio

n k

wh

)

2002 Revenue Sharing

Agreement 7% price reduction

FPL: Demonstrated Ability to Grow Earnings

Adjusted Net Income for FPL excludes the following after-tax charges: cost reduction charge of $85 million in 1993, litigation settlement of $42 million in 1999, merger-related expenses of $38 million in 2000, and merger-related expenses of $16 million in 2001

CAGR 3.7%

Adjusted Net Income

Delivered Sales

1999 Revenue Sharing

Agreement 6% price reduction

CAGR 3.6%

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FPL Energy: A DisciplinedWholesale Generator

• Moderate risk approach– diversified by region, fuel source– well hedged portfolio– emphasis on base-load assets

• Low cost provider– modern, efficient, clean plants– operational excellence

• Industry leader in wind generation

• Conservative, integrated asset optimization function

• 11,041 1 net MW in operation

1 As of 12/31/03

FPL Energy operations

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Consistent, Strong Earnings GrowthAdjusted Net Income

($ millions)

190175

126105

8358

329

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04E

>50% average annual growth

2201

1

See Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP and adjusted earnings1 Excluding the cumulative effect of adopting new accounting standards as well as the mark-to-market effect of non-qualifying hedges which cannot be determined at this time

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Northeast

Mid-Atlantic24%

24%

17%

35%

West

Regional Diversity

Wind

Diversified Portfolio at FPL EnergyYear-end 2004 (Projected)

(11,785 1 Net MW in Operation)

Central

Fuel Diversity

Gas58%

23%Other1%

Hydro3% 6%

Oil Nuclear9%

1 As of 12/31/03

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FPL Energy 2004 Contract Coverage At 12/31/03

Asset Class Available

MW 1 % MW Under

Contract

Wind 2 2,719 99 Other projects / QFs 2 1,255 98 Merchants

Seabrook 2 1,024 97 NEPOOL / PJM / NYPP 3 1,879 34 ERCOT 3 3,009 65 WECC / SERC 3 1,345 60

Total portfolio 3 11,231 74

1 Weighted to reflect in-service dates and planned maintenance2 Reflects Round-the-Clock MW3 Reflects on-peak MW

More than 90 percent of expected 2004 gross margin hedged

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Significant Growth Opportunities

• World-leader in wind• 89 net mw Seabrook uprate• Asset optimization growth across our portfolio• Origination growth• Upside leverage from merchant fleet• Asset acquisition opportunities

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Wind Leadership

MWs Added

458

118

843

324

975

Pre-00

00 01 02 03

• Since 2000, FPL Energy has added an average of 565 mw of wind per year

• Long-term potential average of 200 - 500 mw per year

• $125 - $150/kw of estimated shareholder value creation

• PTC program expiration has resulted in “lumpiness” of investment opportunities

• PTC extension currently attached to several bills

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Seabrook Uprate Potential

• Could be as early as Spring 2005• Recent range of RTC forwards

– $41/mwh - $47/mwh 1

• Nuclear “spark spread” potential– $36/mwh - $42/mwh

• Annualized potential pre-tax margin contribution from uprate assuming normalized (3-year average) availability– $25 - $29 million

1 RTC Cal ’05 price range from 1/1/04 to 3/15/04

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Asset Optimization and Origination

• Actively managing forward sales

• Unlocking our plant’s option value

• Origination efforts leveraging our asset position

– full requirements, load following transactions

Asset Optimization and Origination generated $43 million of pre-tax income in 2003

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Merchant Upside

2004 Assumed Spark SpreadsPotential Incremental

Margin

Availablemw

Capacity Factor

RecentForwards 1

Assumed Equilibrium 2

Potential Improvement Pre-Tax After-Tax

ERCOT 3,009 60% $8.00 $16.00 $8.00 $130 $80

1 Forwards consistent with 2004 earnings expectations2 Assumes CCGT at $500/kw and $4.50/mmbtu natural gas price

2004 Available mw

After-tax incremental

margin range

Seabrook 1,024 $50 – $60

NEPOOL/PJM/NYPP 1,879 80 – 110

ERCOT 3,009 70 – 90

WECC/SERC 1,345 50 – 70

Total incremental earnings contribution potential $250 – $330

Total incremental earnings per share contribution potential $1.40 – $1.80

ERCOT Example:

Applied to the Merchant Portfolio:

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Disciplined Acquisition Strategy

ContractedFossil

PartnersNuclear Wind

FPL EnergyFocus

Acquisition criteria

• Strategic • Fits the portfolio

• Largely hedged/”Deep in the money” • Financeable

• Operational upside • Attractive economics

• Immediately accretive to earnings

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FPL Energy Business Strategies

• Maximize value of current portfolio– cost control– operational reliability– risk management– asset optimization

• Expand market-leading wind position– new development– support policy trends– acquisitions– explore international

• Build portfolio incrementally and selectively– nuclear– fossil (includes QF partners)– criteria: accretive, strategically attractive and financeable

• Explore gas infrastructure opportunities

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Capitalizing on FPL Group Strengths

• Financial strength– Steady earnings growth– Strong credit ratings– Improving cash flow

• Financial discipline– Conservative balance sheet– Ample liquidity– Successful hedging program

• Operational excellence– “Best-in-class” results– Continuous improvement tradition

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Financial Position Remains Strong• Financial discipline• Strong credit ratings• Prudent dividend policy

As of the latest SEC filing.Includes AEE, AEP, CEG, CIN, CMS, CNP, D, DTE, DUK, ED, EIX, ETR, EXC, FE , FPL, PCG, PGN, PNW, PPL, SO, TE, TXU, and XELSource: FactSet Research Systems. Figures were downloaded on 3/17/04

0

4

8

45 55 65 75 85 95

Most Recent Total Debt to Total Capitalization

LT

M C

as

h F

low

Fro

m O

pe

rati

on

s /

LT

M

Inte

res

t E

xp

en

se

FPL Group

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Future Deployment of Free Cash Flow

• Lower FPL Energy capital expenditures will create free cash flow at FPL Group

• FPL Group choices are:

• Value creation either way

Invest at returnsthat exceed

cost of capital

Return cash toshareholders

Dividends Sharerepurchase

or

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Trading at a Discount to Underlying Cash Flow

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

EIX PNW PCG TXU FPL DUK CEG EXC AEP SO AEE PPL ED PGN ETR FE CIN XEL DTE D TE CNP CMS

EV

/LT

M O

pe

rati

ng

Ca

sh

Flo

w

Group Average is 13.4x vs FPL at 9.9x

Enterprise Value to LTM Operating Cash Flow

As of 3/17/04Source: FactSet Research Systems

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Does Current Trading Range Reflect Risk?

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

AEE ED DTE PGN D FPL SO CIN ETR FE EXC PNW TE AEP CEG PPL DUK XEL TXU PCG CMS

Standard Deviation of Monthly Returns 1999-2004

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Strong Outlook for 2004

• FPL– Expect earnings contribution of $4.20 - $4.35 per

share assuming normal weather

• FPL Energy– Expect earnings contribution of $1.05 - $1.20 per share

• Corporate and Other– Net drag of 30 - 35 cents per share

1 Excluding the effect of adopting new accounting standards as well as the mark-to-market effect of non-qualifying hedges which cannot be determined at this time

EPS of $4.95 to $5.201

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FPL Group 1Q Earnings Analysis$/Share

1Q03 EPS – GAAP $0.99

Unrealized M-T-M gain (0.02)

1Q03 EPS – Adjusted 0.97

Included:

2003 above normal weather (0.10)

2003 FiberNet sale (0.04)

Interest timing impact (0.06)

“Normalized” 1Q03 EPS $0.77

2004 drivers Performance through February

Customer growth Running slightly ahead of plan

Usage Below plan

O&M Better than plan

FPL Energy operations Ahead of plan

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Strong, Tangible Growth Prospects

• Customer and usage growth at FPL• Growing wind business• Seabrook Station improvements• Contract restructurings• Asset acquisitions• Upside leverage on merchant fossil fleet• Acquisitions of regulated distribution

companies and/or regulated integrated utilities• Gas infrastructure / LNG

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The Building Blocks of Long-Term Growth

Potential Range of Contribution to 5-year

Growth

2.5% 3.0%

0.0% 1.0%

2.3% 4.5%

1.0% 2.0%

5.8% 10.5%

Base Growth atFlorida Power & Light

Base Growth atFPL Energy

+

+

Return to MerchantMarket Equilibrium

Accretion From ExcessCash Flow

+

Long-Term EarningsGrowth Potential

FPL Group =

Above figures are illustrative only, and not intended to represent a specific forecast. Please refer to FPL Group’s Safe Harbor Statement.

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Appendix

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Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results

In connection with the safe harbor provisions of the Reform Act, FPL Group and FPL are hereby filing cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause FPL Group's or FPL's actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements (as such term is defined in the Reform Act) made by or on behalf of FPL Group and FPL in this combined Form 10-K, in presentations, in response to questions or otherwise.  Any statements that express, or involve discussions as to expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, through the use of words or phrases such as will likely result, are expected to, will continue, is anticipated, believe, could, estimated, may, plan, potential, projection, target, outlook) are not statements of historical facts and may be forward-looking. Forward-looking statements involve estimates, assumptions and uncertainties.  Accordingly, any such statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to, and are accompanied by, the following important factors (in addition to any assumptions and other factors referred to specifically in connection with such forward-looking statements) that could cause FPL Group's or FPL's actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of FPL Group and FPL.

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and FPL Group and FPL undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.  New factors emerge from time to time and it is not possible for management to predict all of such factors, nor can it assess the impact of each such factor on the business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.

The following are some important factors that could have a significant impact on FPL Group's and FPL's operations and financial results, and could cause FPL Group's and FPL's actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements:

FPL Group and FPL are subject to changes in laws or regulations, including the PURPA, and the Holding Company Act, changing governmental policies and regulatory actions, including those of the FERC, the FPSC and the utility commissions of other states in which FPL Group has operations, and the NRC, with respect to, among other things, allowed rates of return, industry and rate structure, operation of nuclear power facilities, operation and construction of plant facilities, operation and construction of transmission facilities, acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortization of assets and facilities, recovery of fuel and purchased power costs, decommissioning costs, return on common equity and equity ratio limits, and present or prospective wholesale and retail competition (including but not limited to retail wheeling and transmission costs).  The FPSC has the authority to disallow recovery by FPL of costs that it considers excessive or imprudently incurred.

The regulatory process generally restricts FPL's ability to grow earnings and does not provide any assurance as to achievement of earnings levels.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to extensive federal, state and local environmental statutes, rules and regulations relating to air quality, water quality, waste management, wildlife mortality, natural resources and health and safety that could, among other things, restrict or limit the output of certain facilities or the use of certain fuels required for the production of electricity and/or increase costs.  There are significant capital, operating and other costs associated with compliance with these environmental statutes, rules and regulations, and those costs could be even more significant in the future.

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FPL Group and FPL operate in a changing market environment influenced by various legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation, regulation or restructuring of the energy industry, including deregulation of the production and sale of electricity.  FPL Group and its subsidiaries will need to adapt to these changes and may face increasing competitive pressure.

FPL Group's and FPL's results of operations could be affected by their ability to renegotiate franchise agreements with municipalities and counties in Florida.

The operation of power generation facilities involves many risks, including start up risks, breakdown or failure of equipment, transmission lines or pipelines, use of new technology, the dependence on a specific fuel source or the impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions (including natural disasters such as hurricanes), as well as the risk of performance below expected levels of output or efficiency.  This could result in lost revenues and/or increased expenses. Insurance, warranties or performance guarantees may not cover any or all of the lost revenues or increased expenses, including the cost of replacement power. In addition to these risks, FPL Group's and FPL's nuclear units face certain risks that are unique to the nuclear industry including the ability to dispose of spent nuclear fuel, as well as additional regulatory actions up to and including shutdown of the units stemming from public safety concerns, whether at FPL Group's and FPL's plants, or at the plants of other nuclear operators.  Breakdown or failure of an FPL Energy operating facility may prevent the facility from performing under applicable power sales agreements which, in certain situations, could result in termination of the agreement or incurring a liability for liquidated damages.

FPL Group's and FPL's ability to successfully and timely complete their power generation facilities currently under construction, those projects yet to begin construction or capital improvements to existing facilities is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks.  Should any such efforts be unsuccessful, FPL Group and FPL could be subject to additional costs, termination payments under committed contracts, and/or the write-off of their investment in the project or improvement.

FPL Group and FPL use derivative instruments, such as swaps, options, futures and forwards to manage their commodity and financial market risks, and to a lesser extent, engage in limited trading activities.  FPL Group could recognize financial losses as a result of volatility in the market values of these contracts, or if a counterparty fails to perform.  In the absence of actively quoted market prices and pricing information from external sources, the valuation of these derivative instruments involves management's judgment or use of estimates. As a result, changes in the underlying assumptions or use of alternative valuation methods could

affect the reported fair value of these contracts.  In addition, FPL's use of such instruments could be subject to prudency challenges and if found imprudent, cost recovery could be disallowed by the FPSC.

There are other risks associated with FPL Group's non-rate regulated businesses, particularly FPL Energy.  In addition to risks discussed elsewhere, risk factors specifically affecting FPL Energy's success in competitive wholesale markets include the ability to efficiently develop and operate generating assets, the successful and timely completion of project restructuring activities, maintenance of the qualifying facility status of certain projects, the price and supply of fuel, transmission constraints, competition from new sources of generation, excess generation capacity and demand for power. There can be significant volatility in market prices for fuel and electricity, and there are other financial, counterparty and market risks that are beyond the control of FPL Energy.  FPL Energy's inability or failure to effectively hedge its assets or positions against changes in commodity prices, interest rates, counterparty credit risk or other risk measures could significantly impair its future financial results. In keeping with industry trends, a portion of FPL Energy's power generation facilities operate wholly or partially without long-term power purchase agreements.  As a result, power from these facilities is sold on the spot market or on a short-term contractual basis, which may affect the volatility of FPL Group's financial results.   In addition, FPL Energy's business depends upon transmission facilities owned and operated by others; if transmission is disrupted or capacity is inadequate or unavailable, FPL Energy's ability to sell and deliver its wholesale power may be limited.

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FPL Group is likely to encounter significant competition for acquisition opportunities that may become available as a result of the consolidation of the power industry.  In addition, FPL Group may be unable to identify attractive acquisition opportunities at favorable prices and to successfully and timely complete and integrate them.

FPL Group and FPL rely on access to capital markets as a significant source of liquidity for capital requirements not satisfied by operating cash flows.  The inability of FPL Group and FPL to maintain their current credit ratings could affect their ability to raise capital on favorable terms, particularly during times of uncertainty in the capital markets which, in turn, could impact FPL Group's and FPL's ability to grow their businesses and would likely increase interest costs.

FPL Group's and FPL's results of operations can be affected by changes in the weather.  Weather conditions directly influence the demand for electricity and natural gas and affect the price of energy commodities, and can affect the production of electricity at wind and hydro-powered facilities.  In addition, severe weather can be destructive, causing outages and/or property damage, which could require additional costs to be incurred.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to costs and other effects of legal and administrative proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, as well as the effect of new, or changes in, tax rates or policies, rates of inflation, accounting standards, securities laws or corporate governance requirements.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to direct and indirect effects of terrorist threats and activities.  Generation and transmission facilities, in general, have been identified as potential targets.  The effects of terrorist threats and activities include, among other things, terrorist actions or responses to such actions or threats, the inability to generate, purchase or transmit power, the risk of a significant slowdown in growth or a decline in the U.S. economy, delay in economic recovery in the United States, and the increased cost and adequacy of security and insurance.

FPL Group's and FPL's ability to obtain insurance, and the cost of and coverage provided by such insurance, could be affected by national events as well as company-specific events.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to employee workforce factors, including loss or retirement of key executives, availability of qualified personnel, collective bargaining agreements with union employees or work stoppage.

The issues and associated risks and uncertainties described above are not the only ones FPL Group and FPL may face. Additional issues may arise or become material as the energy industry evolves.  The risks and uncertainties associated with these additional issues could impair FPL Group's and FPL's businesses in the future.

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FPL Energy - Reconciliation GAAP to Adjusted Earnings

($ millions) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) to Earnings

Excuding After-tax Effect of Certain Items:

Net income (Loss) (46)$ 82$ 113$ (169)$ 194$

Adjustments:Impairment loss 104 Merger-related expenses 1 Cumulative effect of change in accounting principle (FAS 142) 222 Restructuring and other charges 73 Cumulative effect of change in accounting principles (FIN 46) 3

Net unrealized mark-to-market losses (gains) associated

w ith non-qualifying hedges (8) (22) Earnings excluding after-tax effect of certain items 58$ 83$ 105$ 126$ 175$

Totals may not add due to roundingGAAP and Adjusted results in 1997 and 1998 were the same

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Liquidity Resources

Revolvers ($ millions) 364 Day1 3 Year2 Total

Florida Power & Light Company $500 $500 $1,000

FPL Group Capital $1,000 $1,000 $2,000

Total $1,500 $1,500 $3,000

1 Oct. 2004 maturity with one year term-out option2 Oct. 2006 maturity

• FPL lead arrangers – J.P. Morgan & Wachovia• FPL Group Capital lead arrangers – Citibank

& Bank of America