Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference...2008/04/01  · Morgan Stanley European...

49
Arne Liljedahl Executive Vice President and Group CFO London, 1 April 2008 Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference

Transcript of Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference...2008/04/01  · Morgan Stanley European...

Page 1: Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference...2008/04/01  · Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference 2 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking

Arne LiljedahlExecutive Vice President and Group CFO

London, 1 April 2008

Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate and (iii) change in interest rate level. This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward- looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

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Agenda

Full year result 2007

Capital position

Credit risk diversification

Funding strategy

Nordea strategic direction

Outlook 2008

Concluding remarks

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Full year result 2007

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Income EUR 7,886m (EUR 7,365m), up 8% on a comparable basis*

Gap between income and cost growth of 2.0%-points*

Risk-adjusted profit EUR 2,417m (EUR 2,107m), up 15%

Profit before loan losses EUR 3,820m (EUR 3,543m), up 11%*

Positive net loan losses EUR 60m (positive EUR 257m)

Net profit EUR 3,130m (EUR 3,153m), up 3% on a comparable basis*

Return on equity 19.7% including non-recurring items (22.9%)

Earnings per share EUR 1.20 including non-recurring items (EUR 1.21)

Proposed dividend per share EUR 0.50, (EUR 0.49), corresponding to a dividend payment of EUR 1,297m

Strong result – based on growth strategy and prudent risk management

* The growth figures are calculated on a comparable basis, excl the income of EUR 120m from the deposit guarantee refund in Finland in 2007 and the income of EUR 199m from the divestment of International Moscow Bank (IMB) in 2006

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Nordea well in place to handle continued market turbulence – benefiting from…

…a high quality balance sheet, well diversified credit portfolio and low risk business profile

… a solid funding name and very good liquidity positionconservative liquidity strategy in place since creation of Nordea

loans to deposits, excl mortgages, 113%

no maturity of tier 2 capital in 2008

multiple funding bases, Nordic, EU and US – Nordic covered bond markets a stable funding base, despite minor disturbances

…limited direct and indirect exposure to US sub-prime crises as well as credit-linked investment vehicles

…a customer driven capital markets operations

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7 1667 766

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

FY 2006 FY 2007

Operating income up 8%

EURm 2007/2006

Strong growth in Net interest income – up 11%Double digit lending growth in all major segments, compensating for margin pressureIncreased deposit volumes and improved margins

Net commission income up 3%Lending commission up 12% reflecting strong lending growthSavings-related commissions up 7%, partly dampened by unchanged AuMCommission expenses up 17%

Net gains/losses up 15%Customer driven demand for risk management productsStrong performance considering difficult market conditions in the second half of the year

For comparison reasons two major non-recurring items have been excluded. For 2007 the refund from the Finnish deposit guarantee system of EUR 120m and for 2006 the capital gain from the IMB sale EUR 199m

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Cost increase in line with guidance

Cost increas YoY

6,4%

3,7%

3,1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Reported Excl. investmentsin growth areas

Also excl. variablesalaries

Cost increase in line with guidance given in beginning of 2007

Cost growth reflecting execution of growth strategy and related investments

Total number of employees up 8% in 2007

Orgresbank accounts for approx. 1%-point of total cost growth

Wage inflation gradually increasing

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0,5

3,4

1,0

2,0

3,2

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 FY 2007

Full year gap guidance met

%-points

Full year gap of 2.0%-pointsIncome 8.4%

Costs 6.4%

Although significant investments in growth areas and difficult market conditions the gap guidance was reachedSolid performance in Q4 gave a positive gap also when comparing with record income last year

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Capital position

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216

185 185193

176 177 171

189 194205206200

020406080

100120140160180200220

Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07RWA Basel I RWA Basel II excl transition rules RWA Basel II

Strong business growth well managed in Basel II

EURbn Basel I RWA up 17% YoY, driven mainly by growth in corporate lending

Leveraging on Basel II framework

Basel II RWA excl. transition rules down 3% since end H1 to EUR 171bn despite volume growth

Lower impact from lending growth in Basel II RWA compared to Basel I RWA

Further improved sourcing of collaterals in accordance with roll-out plan

RWA incl. transition rules EUR 205bn, up 8% since end H1 2007

Basel II RWA is 21% lower than Basel I

Approval of Retail portfolios will further reduce RWA – increased uncertainty on Pillar II

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6,8 6,66,9 7,1

6,8

7,7 7,98,3

7,1 7,2 7,06,8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07

Tier I Basel I Tier I Basel II excl. transition rules Tier I Basel II

Volume growth and still strong capital position%

Tier 1 7.0% according to Basel II incl. transition rules

During Q4 volumes towards counterparties with 100% risk weight has increased, leading to a slight decrease in Tier I

Tier 1 according to Basel II, excl transition rules has increased (8.3%) due to further improved sourcing of collaterals

Applying transition rules for 2008 (90% floor) gives a Tier 1 of approx 7.3%

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Credit risk diversification

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Well diversified lending portfolio

Corporate56%

Household44%

Well-diversified lending mix measured by customer segments and industry

Stable over time

Share of total lending, end of 2007

Lending to companies by industry, end of 2007

Other8% Real estate

29%

Construction3%

Agriculture & Fishing

5%Transp. & Communicatio

n5%

Finance9%

Renting,Consulting and other services

11%

Manufacturing15% Trade and

services10%

Shipping & Offshore

5%

EUR 133,3bn

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Well diversified revenues streams

Balanced revenue streams from four Nordic markets

Different business cycles in the four Nordic countries

Approx. 50-50 in revenue split between household and corporate

Increased revenue proportion from New European Markets 4.0% in 2007

Well diversified revenue streams, FY 2007

Global and European niche

businesses10%New European

Markets4%

Finland24%

Norway12%

Denmark25%

Sweden 25%

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Strong lending growth in the Baltic countries...

Growth total lending

5041 38

6

65 65

11

25

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 Q407

%

Total market Nordea

Growth total deposits

33

25

13

43

23

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

2005 2006 2007

%

Total market Nordea

Selective growth strategy for the Baltic countriesPrudent credit policy from start of operations enables Nordea to grow business volumes with intact credit quality Total lending in the Baltic countries stands for 2% of Nordea’s loan portfolio

Volumes excl finance company

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…with limited risk exposure Growth total lending

8,610,7

14,5

2,90,9 1,9

0,50,602468

10121416

2005 2006 2007 Q4/07

EURbn

Total market EURbn Nordea EURbn

Growth total deposits5,6 5,7

3,6

0,2 0,20,3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007

EURbn

Total market EURbn Nordea EURbn

Nordea’s market share of new lending 13% (full year 2007)Nordea’s market share of deposits 6% (full year 2007)

Volumes excl finance company

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Broad and diversified funding base

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Funding strengths of Nordea

Strong foundation from leading Nordic Market position and strong deposit franschise

Nordic markets characterized by active retail and institutional investors both in the short and long end of the market

A high rated bank (Aa1/AA-/AA-/AA)

Management of Nordea’s liquidity

Group liquidity strategy in place since 2002

One pool of funds – centralised issuance policyFew and attractive programs - benchmark of issuances

Focus on composition of investor base – geographical range as well as rating sensitivity

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Liquidity Risk Measures

Net Balance of Stable FundingLong-term measure; excess of long-term funding compared to long-term assets

Liquidity BufferPortfolio that could be sold in case of need

Funding Gap Risk (all currencies combined and individual currencies)

Short-term measure; cash-flows in 14 days period

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Focus on securing Nordea’s funding at attractive terms

Nordea Bank ABNordea Hypotek

Nordea North America Inc.

New York CD’s

Nordea Bank AB

French CP

Nordea Bank Finland

Nordea Bank Norge

London CD’s

Nordea Kredit

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

aug

oct

dec

feb

apr

jun

aug

oct

dec

feb

apr

june au

g

oct

dec

feb

apr

jun

aug

oct

dec

TOTAL SHORT TOTAL LONG

MIO EUR Total outstanding

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Long Term Programs incl. covered bonds / mortgage bonds

Issuer Program Currency Program Size RatingNordea Bank AB

Nordea Bank AB

Nordea Bank Finland Plc

Nordea Kredit

Nordea Hypotek

Nordea Hypotek

EMTN

MTN (Swedish)*

MTN*

SDRO’s Covered Bonds

EMTN Covered Bonds

Covered Bonds

* Joint program

All Currency

SEK

SEK

DKK/EUR

All Currencies

SEK

EUR 20 bn

SEK 100 bn*

SEK 100 bn*

Eligible assets

EUR 10 bn

Eligible assets

* Joint program

AA-/Aa1/AA-

AA-/Aa1/AA-

AA-/Aa1/AA-

AAA/Aaa/-

AAA/Aaa/-

AAA/Aaa/-

Nordea Bank AB

Nordea Bank Finland Plc

Nordea Hypotek

Nordea Kredit

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Issuer Program Currency Program Size RatingNordea North America Inc.

Nordea Bank AB

Nordea Bank AB

Nordea Bank AB

Nordea Bank Finland, Hki

-Branches

Nordea Bank Norge

US CP

ECP

CP

French CP

CD

CD’s

CD

USD

All Currency

SEK

Euro

Euro

USD, Euro and £

NOK

USD 20 bn

EUR 6 bn

SEK 50 bn

EUR 6 bn

EUR 5 bn

No size

No size

A-1+/P-1/F1+

A-1+/P-1/F1+

A-1+/P-1/F1+

A-1+/P-1/F1+

A-1+/P-1/F1+

A-1+/P-1/F1+

A-1+/P-1/F1+

Short Term ProgramsNordea Bank AB

Nordea North America Inc.

Nordea Bank Finland New York Branch

Nordea Bank ABFrench CP

Nordea Bank Finland

Nordea Bank Norge

Nordea Bank Finland London

Branch

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Strong covered bond platform

Denmark Europe’s 2nd largest and Sweden the 4th largest covered bond market – Nordea a frequent issuer

Continuous access to funding in Danish and Swedish market via taps on outstanding benchmark bonds supported by contracted market makers

Nordea has EUR 55bn in outstanding covered bonds

Nordea Hypotek since 2006 present in the international covered bond market through Jumbos and private placements

Three outstanding EUR benchmarks for Nordea Hypotek in the EUR covered bond market. Latest issue in November 2007.

Aim to issue one to two EUR benchmarks per year

Nordea long term funding

Sw eden11%

France4%

UK3% Others

2%

Spain18%

Germany28%

Denmark34%

European covered bond market sizes (Source: EMF)

Nordea Hypotek EUR4%

Nordea senior unsecured

28%

Nordea Hypotek SEK27%

Nordea Kredit EUR5%

Nordea Kredit DKK36%

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Bringing Nordea from Good to Great

Nordea’s strategic direction

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Nordea – with an outstanding starting point…

Corp. lending % # Market rank

HH lending % % Share of Group income (size of Bubbles

Strong distribution powerApprox. 1,300 branches

A unique customer baseApprox. 10 million personal customers700.000 active Corporate customers

Financial strengthEUR 14.2bn in Tier 1 capital

Economies of scaleCost base/RWA 2.0% (average among Nordic peers 2.3%)

Finland22%# 1

Norway12%# 2

Denmark24%# 2

Sweden23%# 2-3

Global, European,

Other*)15%

New European

Mark

ets

4%

*) Includes mainly International Private Banking and Funds, Shipping and Oil Services, Financial Institutions Divisions and other operations and Group Functions

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Bringing Nordea from Good to Great

Ambitious vision and targets

Profit orientation- Cost, risk and capital

Clear growth strategy

Strong customer oriented values and culture

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Ambitious vision and targets

Target

In the top quartile of European peer group

In line with top Nordic peers

Double in 7 years**

Policy

> 40% of net profit

Long term financial targets

TSR (%)

Risk adjusted profit (EUR m)*

RoE (%)

Capital structure policy

Dividend payout-ratio

Tier 1 capital ratio > 6.5%

2007

# 3 of 20

15%

19.7% (19.1% excl non-recurring items)

42% (proposed)

7.0%

* Risk-adjusted profit is defined as total income less total expenses, less expected losses and standard tax. In addition, Risk adjusted profit excludes major non-recurring items.

** Baseline 2006 EUR 2,107m

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• We focus on profitable organic growth

• We focus on strict cost management, prudent risk control and efficient capital management

• We think and act with the customer in mind

• We understand individual customerneeds and exceed expectations

• We deliver professionally

• We create long-term relationship

The leading Nordic bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior

value for customers and shareholders

Great customer experience It’s all about people One Nordea team

• We acknowledge that people make the difference

• We enable people to perform and grow

• We foster initiative-taking and timely execution

• We assess performance in an honest and fair way

• We team up to create value

• We work together across the organisation

• We show trust and assume accountability

• We make rules and instructions clear and applicable

Profit orientation – cost, risk and capital

Strong customer-oriented values and culture

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Clear growth strategy

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A profitable organic growth strategy with clear initiatives

Household strategy

• Expanded distribution capacity in Poland

• Russia – broaden focus to include all segments

• Selective growth in the Baltic countries

Based on strong competencies

• Free up time for sales• Unify customer processes• Employer branding and recruitment, talent management and leadership competencies

• Added advisory capacity

• Capture internal pool of potential customers

• New Corporate Merchant Banking concept

• Cash equity and corporate finance

• Growth in sale of value-added capital markets products

• Migration to premium segments

• Attract new customers to premium segments

• Focus on Sweden

Private banking Corporate strategy

• Reinforced #1 position in shipping

• Reinforced strong international position in Private Banking and Fund Distribution

Selective growth strategy

Existing Nordic customers and new customersSelected global and European business lines

New European Markets

Next level of efficiency to support sustainable growth

• Unify product delivery processes• Next phase of improvements cross units

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700

200

100 250

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Private Banking Gold** Silver Bronze0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Income per customer FY 2007 (Silver customer = 100)

Significant potential in migrating household customers to higher segments

* In addition Nordea services approx 2 million customers outside customer programmes** Excl children under 18 years

Gold and Private banking customers are the engines for revenue growth

A Gold customer generates 8 times higher income than a Bronze customer

Approx. 1 million potential Gold customers in the customer base –strong source for further growth

2.4

1.4

2.9

Income (Index)

Customers* (millions)

0.07

Number of customers

4x

2x

3,5x

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Proactive sales drive growth in premium segments

Proactive sales create growth momentum – strong increase in PBA meetings

Continued growth in business with Gold customers

11% increase in business volume

Increased number of Gold customers

Up 7% YoY

More than 1/5 are new customers in Nordea

Gold segment YoY 2007 (Jan-Dec)

132146

No. of customers(mill)

Volume percustomer(EUR'000)

Business volumes(EUR bn)

2.22.4

7.2%3.5%

10.9%

46

73535

6159

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Income in Nordic Banking Sweden 7%

Improved market position

Focus on services and product segments with strongest growth potential; long term savings, consumer loans, capital market products

Initiative continues in 2008Focus on advisory capacity – 100 advisors to be recruited

Finalising the deal with SvenskKassaservice

Converting 76 branches

Taking over 350 employees

Growth Plan Sweden on trackIncome growth %

7

-1-1

1

3

5

7

9

Q108/Q107

Nordea Nordic Banking Sweden Weighted average peers in Sweden*

953 1 021

285 358

Q1 2007 Q1 2008Number of PBAs Number of Branches

Svensk Kassaservice (76)*Total income in Swedbank adjusted for capital gain from sale of branches

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Nordic Private Banking segment YoY (Jan-Dec)

Continued strong growth in Private Banking

Growth success of Private Banking continued in 2007

Net inflow of EUR 4.3bn

120 new adviser

13,000 new customers

Multiple sources for volume growthIncrease volume with existing Private Banking customers

Attract external capital from existing customers

Tapping the internal pool of potential Private Banking customers, e.g. business owners

External customer acquisition

Average income per customer FY 2007 (Silver customer = 100)

700

200100

250

200

400

600

800

PrivateBanking

Gold* Silver Bronze

3.5x

AuM

4246

520

No. of customers(‘000) (EURbn)

75

16,3%

7.7%

88

No. of advisers

18.7%

788664

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Strengthening the corporate offering

Large

Medium

Corporate Merchant Banking

Small536,000

55,000

15,000

1,000

The customer team concept –

Individual solutions involving relationship mangers and specialists from all relevant Nordea units

The relationship manager – one single-point-of contact for customers

# customers

New concept leveraging Nordea’s full-range product expertise, strong balance sheet and placing power in the capital markets

• Leveraging structuring capabilities to develop and cross- sell capital markets products

• New value proposition to entrepreneurs• Significant growth opportunities arises from customers

having both personal and corporate business with Nordea

Capital market products

Service model combining Nordea’s strong capabilities with local presence

• New Nordic unit - strengthened research capacity and retained local presence

• Designed to meet intensified demands from large corporates and institutional customers

Corporate finance and cash equity

Corporate Merchant Banking

Launching new concept to segment small

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Focus on Capital Markets products to corporate customers

Customer driven demand for Capital markets products continue to increaseExploiting untapped demand in large- and SME segments

Corporate activity remained high throughout 2007 driven by financing and hedging needs

Strategic initiative to strengthen Nordea’scash equity and corporate finance offeringOpportunity to leverage Nordea’s highly competitive offering

Leading Corporate Risk Management offeringLeading capabilities in debt and equity capital issuances

Total revenues in Markets related to Nordic Banking customers

379

478

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007

EURm

+26%

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Reinforcing and leveraging strong positions in selected Global and European business lines

# 1 position in Shipping Strong position in wealth management in Luxemburg and Switzerland

World-leading provider of shipping finance

Leveraging lending book through increased cross selling

Mainly capital markets products but also cash management and custody products

Full scale wealth management offering

Close collaboration with Nordic Private Banking on tools, products and customer referrals

Significantly expanding advisory desks for the German, UK, Baltic, and Russian markets in 2008-2009

Luxemburg-based international fund distribution – 1,200 intermediates

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New European Markets

3136 39

83

6863

0102030405060708090

Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07

EURm

Total income

*

Strong growth and well controlled risk exposure in New European Markets

* Orgresbank consolidated from Q2 2007

An increasingly important component in the long-term growth strategy

Continued prudent credit policies in the Baltic countries enables Nordea to grow with stable credit quality

Total lending up 78%, (excl. Orgresbank)

Total lending within New European Markets accounts for 4% of total lending in Nordea

Increased number of Gold customers, up 74%

Revenues from New European Markets accounts for 3.5% of Nordea Group revenues

Creating value through market specific organic growth strategies

40 new branches opened in Poland

12 new branches opened in the Baltics

C/I improved to 57% (64%) – despite investments in branch network and doubled number of FTEs

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Expand branch network to capture growth in Poland

Income, income growth (CAGR %) and # branches

41 41 4145

48 48

58

85

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1/06Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/0730

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total income Number of branches

Poland market size closing in on Nordic countriesSuperior growth compared to the Nordic regionTo capture the growth Nordea’s target is to open 150 branches in 2007 – 2009 , up from 50

Average break-even on a branch is 9 monthsExpansion progressing ahead of plan

New branches focus on acquiring mass affluent customers and SME

Same offering as in the Nordic countries for both corporate and household customersHousing loans a customer acquisition vehicle when targeting new gold customers

EURm

+32%

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Leverage Nordea’s strengths and offering from the Nordic market Replicate proven business model from PolandMaintain a strict credit management policy

Continue leverage SME strongholdGrowth fuelled by customer wins among large corporates

Rapid growth of business with Nordic corporatesComparatively low risk, attractive cash flows

Start-up phase: leveraging the Nordea offeringFocus on consumer finance to affluent segment Up to 13 new branches in 2007

Organic growth strategy in Russia

…to Russian corporates

…to Nordic corporates

…to Retail households

General approach

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Next level of efficiency

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Strong track record of improved cost efficiency

C / I (%)64

63

60

58

5352

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

No of employees reduced with 7.000 since 2002

Centralised procurement – EUR 160m in annual savings from sourcing, premises, economies of scale

Organisational complexity reduced

Harmonised IT-platforms within large parts of the group, unified front end systems in Nordic Banking

Lean banking and best practice changes across the Group

Total expenses in real terms down 11% since 2002

C/I-ratio down 12 %-points since 2002

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Private Banking

Banking & Capital Market Products

Savings & Life Products

Group Services & Technology

People & Identity

Account Products

Cash Management & Payments

Nordic Banking

Savings Products & Asset Management

Capital Market Products

Institutional & International Banking

Segm

ent H

ouse

hold

&

Cor

pora

te

Group Corporate Centre

Group Credit & Risk Control

Group Legal

Stronger customer-orientationSimple, transparent delivery processesClear responsibilities

Improve customer experienceSimpler value chain - further efficiency gains

Increase time with customersReduce time-to-market

In practice

Objectives

Key features

New Operating Model

Next phase of efficiency improvements goes cross units

Next level of integration leads to further efficiency gains

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Next level of integration will free up time for sales and provide further efficiency improvements

New operating model: Next phase of efficiency improvements go cross units

Increase the time Personal Bank Advisors and Relationship Managers spend with customers

Target to increase time spend with customers 50-100%

Efficiency gains to create resources for growth

Free up time for sales Unified customer and product delivery processesUnification and streamlining of sales processes and sales support systems – Future Branch

Harmonising and consolidating business processes and IT-solutions – Nordea Transformation Programme

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A clear strategy for growth

Existingbusiness

Nordicgrow thinitives

NewEuropeanMarkets

Global andEuropean

nichebusinesses

Volume andsalary

increases +inflation

Investmentsin New

EuropeanMarkets

Investmentsin Nordicgrow thinitives

Improvedefficiency

Profitgrow th

Revenue growth Cost growth Risk-adjusted profit

7-10% 4-8% >10%

TargetCAGR 7 years horizon

Bringing Nordea from Good to Great

2007- 2008

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Outlook for 2008Turbulent development in international capital markets has significantly increased uncertainty for 2008

Costs related to investments in growth areas are expected to amount to EUR 100-120m 2008

Continued investments in growth areas and increased wage inflation is expected to lead to somewhat higher cost increase in 2008, compared with 2007

If economic growth slows down more than now anticipated, Nordea will review the level of growth investments

Based on forecast for GDP growth for the Nordic region, as well as for interest rates the risk-adjusted profit is expected to grow in the range of 5-10% 2008

Overall quality of the Nordea credit portfolio remains strong

For 2008 Nordea expects some net loan loss charges as reversals of previously made provision likely to decrease

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Concluding remarks

Strong result 2007 – based on growth strategy and prudent risk management

Nordea well in place to handle continued market turbulence

Strong business growth well managed in Basel II

Well diversified lending portfolio and revenue streams

Broad and diversified funding base

Ambitious vision and targets

Strong customer-oriented values and culture

A profitable organic growth strategy with clear initiatives

Take Nordea to the next level of operational efficiency and support sustained growth

Bring Nordea from “Good to Great”

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Arne LiljedahlExecutive Vice President and Group CFO

London, 1 April 2008

Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference