Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference...2008/04/01 · Morgan Stanley European...
Transcript of Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference...2008/04/01 · Morgan Stanley European...
Arne LiljedahlExecutive Vice President and Group CFO
London, 1 April 2008
Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate and (iii) change in interest rate level. This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward- looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.
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Agenda
Full year result 2007
Capital position
Credit risk diversification
Funding strategy
Nordea strategic direction
Outlook 2008
Concluding remarks
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Full year result 2007
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Income EUR 7,886m (EUR 7,365m), up 8% on a comparable basis*
Gap between income and cost growth of 2.0%-points*
Risk-adjusted profit EUR 2,417m (EUR 2,107m), up 15%
Profit before loan losses EUR 3,820m (EUR 3,543m), up 11%*
Positive net loan losses EUR 60m (positive EUR 257m)
Net profit EUR 3,130m (EUR 3,153m), up 3% on a comparable basis*
Return on equity 19.7% including non-recurring items (22.9%)
Earnings per share EUR 1.20 including non-recurring items (EUR 1.21)
Proposed dividend per share EUR 0.50, (EUR 0.49), corresponding to a dividend payment of EUR 1,297m
Strong result – based on growth strategy and prudent risk management
* The growth figures are calculated on a comparable basis, excl the income of EUR 120m from the deposit guarantee refund in Finland in 2007 and the income of EUR 199m from the divestment of International Moscow Bank (IMB) in 2006
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Nordea well in place to handle continued market turbulence – benefiting from…
…a high quality balance sheet, well diversified credit portfolio and low risk business profile
… a solid funding name and very good liquidity positionconservative liquidity strategy in place since creation of Nordea
loans to deposits, excl mortgages, 113%
no maturity of tier 2 capital in 2008
multiple funding bases, Nordic, EU and US – Nordic covered bond markets a stable funding base, despite minor disturbances
…limited direct and indirect exposure to US sub-prime crises as well as credit-linked investment vehicles
…a customer driven capital markets operations
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7 1667 766
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
FY 2006 FY 2007
Operating income up 8%
EURm 2007/2006
Strong growth in Net interest income – up 11%Double digit lending growth in all major segments, compensating for margin pressureIncreased deposit volumes and improved margins
Net commission income up 3%Lending commission up 12% reflecting strong lending growthSavings-related commissions up 7%, partly dampened by unchanged AuMCommission expenses up 17%
Net gains/losses up 15%Customer driven demand for risk management productsStrong performance considering difficult market conditions in the second half of the year
For comparison reasons two major non-recurring items have been excluded. For 2007 the refund from the Finnish deposit guarantee system of EUR 120m and for 2006 the capital gain from the IMB sale EUR 199m
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Cost increase in line with guidance
Cost increas YoY
6,4%
3,7%
3,1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Reported Excl. investmentsin growth areas
Also excl. variablesalaries
Cost increase in line with guidance given in beginning of 2007
Cost growth reflecting execution of growth strategy and related investments
Total number of employees up 8% in 2007
Orgresbank accounts for approx. 1%-point of total cost growth
Wage inflation gradually increasing
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0,5
3,4
1,0
2,0
3,2
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 FY 2007
Full year gap guidance met
%-points
Full year gap of 2.0%-pointsIncome 8.4%
Costs 6.4%
Although significant investments in growth areas and difficult market conditions the gap guidance was reachedSolid performance in Q4 gave a positive gap also when comparing with record income last year
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Capital position
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216
185 185193
176 177 171
189 194205206200
020406080
100120140160180200220
Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07RWA Basel I RWA Basel II excl transition rules RWA Basel II
Strong business growth well managed in Basel II
EURbn Basel I RWA up 17% YoY, driven mainly by growth in corporate lending
Leveraging on Basel II framework
Basel II RWA excl. transition rules down 3% since end H1 to EUR 171bn despite volume growth
Lower impact from lending growth in Basel II RWA compared to Basel I RWA
Further improved sourcing of collaterals in accordance with roll-out plan
RWA incl. transition rules EUR 205bn, up 8% since end H1 2007
Basel II RWA is 21% lower than Basel I
Approval of Retail portfolios will further reduce RWA – increased uncertainty on Pillar II
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6,8 6,66,9 7,1
6,8
7,7 7,98,3
7,1 7,2 7,06,8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07
Tier I Basel I Tier I Basel II excl. transition rules Tier I Basel II
Volume growth and still strong capital position%
Tier 1 7.0% according to Basel II incl. transition rules
During Q4 volumes towards counterparties with 100% risk weight has increased, leading to a slight decrease in Tier I
Tier 1 according to Basel II, excl transition rules has increased (8.3%) due to further improved sourcing of collaterals
Applying transition rules for 2008 (90% floor) gives a Tier 1 of approx 7.3%
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Credit risk diversification
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Well diversified lending portfolio
Corporate56%
Household44%
Well-diversified lending mix measured by customer segments and industry
Stable over time
Share of total lending, end of 2007
Lending to companies by industry, end of 2007
Other8% Real estate
29%
Construction3%
Agriculture & Fishing
5%Transp. & Communicatio
n5%
Finance9%
Renting,Consulting and other services
11%
Manufacturing15% Trade and
services10%
Shipping & Offshore
5%
EUR 133,3bn
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Well diversified revenues streams
Balanced revenue streams from four Nordic markets
Different business cycles in the four Nordic countries
Approx. 50-50 in revenue split between household and corporate
Increased revenue proportion from New European Markets 4.0% in 2007
Well diversified revenue streams, FY 2007
Global and European niche
businesses10%New European
Markets4%
Finland24%
Norway12%
Denmark25%
Sweden 25%
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Strong lending growth in the Baltic countries...
Growth total lending
5041 38
6
65 65
11
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 Q407
%
Total market Nordea
Growth total deposits
33
25
13
43
23
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007
%
Total market Nordea
Selective growth strategy for the Baltic countriesPrudent credit policy from start of operations enables Nordea to grow business volumes with intact credit quality Total lending in the Baltic countries stands for 2% of Nordea’s loan portfolio
Volumes excl finance company
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…with limited risk exposure Growth total lending
8,610,7
14,5
2,90,9 1,9
0,50,602468
10121416
2005 2006 2007 Q4/07
EURbn
Total market EURbn Nordea EURbn
Growth total deposits5,6 5,7
3,6
0,2 0,20,3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2006 2007
EURbn
Total market EURbn Nordea EURbn
Nordea’s market share of new lending 13% (full year 2007)Nordea’s market share of deposits 6% (full year 2007)
Volumes excl finance company
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Broad and diversified funding base
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Funding strengths of Nordea
Strong foundation from leading Nordic Market position and strong deposit franschise
Nordic markets characterized by active retail and institutional investors both in the short and long end of the market
A high rated bank (Aa1/AA-/AA-/AA)
Management of Nordea’s liquidity
Group liquidity strategy in place since 2002
One pool of funds – centralised issuance policyFew and attractive programs - benchmark of issuances
Focus on composition of investor base – geographical range as well as rating sensitivity
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Liquidity Risk Measures
Net Balance of Stable FundingLong-term measure; excess of long-term funding compared to long-term assets
Liquidity BufferPortfolio that could be sold in case of need
Funding Gap Risk (all currencies combined and individual currencies)
Short-term measure; cash-flows in 14 days period
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Focus on securing Nordea’s funding at attractive terms
Nordea Bank ABNordea Hypotek
Nordea North America Inc.
New York CD’s
Nordea Bank AB
French CP
Nordea Bank Finland
Nordea Bank Norge
London CD’s
Nordea Kredit
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
aug
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
oct
dec
feb
apr
june au
g
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
oct
dec
TOTAL SHORT TOTAL LONG
MIO EUR Total outstanding
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Long Term Programs incl. covered bonds / mortgage bonds
Issuer Program Currency Program Size RatingNordea Bank AB
Nordea Bank AB
Nordea Bank Finland Plc
Nordea Kredit
Nordea Hypotek
Nordea Hypotek
EMTN
MTN (Swedish)*
MTN*
SDRO’s Covered Bonds
EMTN Covered Bonds
Covered Bonds
* Joint program
All Currency
SEK
SEK
DKK/EUR
All Currencies
SEK
EUR 20 bn
SEK 100 bn*
SEK 100 bn*
Eligible assets
EUR 10 bn
Eligible assets
* Joint program
AA-/Aa1/AA-
AA-/Aa1/AA-
AA-/Aa1/AA-
AAA/Aaa/-
AAA/Aaa/-
AAA/Aaa/-
Nordea Bank AB
Nordea Bank Finland Plc
Nordea Hypotek
Nordea Kredit
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Issuer Program Currency Program Size RatingNordea North America Inc.
Nordea Bank AB
Nordea Bank AB
Nordea Bank AB
Nordea Bank Finland, Hki
-Branches
Nordea Bank Norge
US CP
ECP
CP
French CP
CD
CD’s
CD
USD
All Currency
SEK
Euro
Euro
USD, Euro and £
NOK
USD 20 bn
EUR 6 bn
SEK 50 bn
EUR 6 bn
EUR 5 bn
No size
No size
A-1+/P-1/F1+
A-1+/P-1/F1+
A-1+/P-1/F1+
A-1+/P-1/F1+
A-1+/P-1/F1+
A-1+/P-1/F1+
A-1+/P-1/F1+
Short Term ProgramsNordea Bank AB
Nordea North America Inc.
Nordea Bank Finland New York Branch
Nordea Bank ABFrench CP
Nordea Bank Finland
Nordea Bank Norge
Nordea Bank Finland London
Branch
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Strong covered bond platform
Denmark Europe’s 2nd largest and Sweden the 4th largest covered bond market – Nordea a frequent issuer
Continuous access to funding in Danish and Swedish market via taps on outstanding benchmark bonds supported by contracted market makers
Nordea has EUR 55bn in outstanding covered bonds
Nordea Hypotek since 2006 present in the international covered bond market through Jumbos and private placements
Three outstanding EUR benchmarks for Nordea Hypotek in the EUR covered bond market. Latest issue in November 2007.
Aim to issue one to two EUR benchmarks per year
Nordea long term funding
Sw eden11%
France4%
UK3% Others
2%
Spain18%
Germany28%
Denmark34%
European covered bond market sizes (Source: EMF)
Nordea Hypotek EUR4%
Nordea senior unsecured
28%
Nordea Hypotek SEK27%
Nordea Kredit EUR5%
Nordea Kredit DKK36%
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Bringing Nordea from Good to Great
Nordea’s strategic direction
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Nordea – with an outstanding starting point…
Corp. lending % # Market rank
HH lending % % Share of Group income (size of Bubbles
Strong distribution powerApprox. 1,300 branches
A unique customer baseApprox. 10 million personal customers700.000 active Corporate customers
Financial strengthEUR 14.2bn in Tier 1 capital
Economies of scaleCost base/RWA 2.0% (average among Nordic peers 2.3%)
Finland22%# 1
Norway12%# 2
Denmark24%# 2
Sweden23%# 2-3
Global, European,
Other*)15%
New European
Mark
ets
4%
*) Includes mainly International Private Banking and Funds, Shipping and Oil Services, Financial Institutions Divisions and other operations and Group Functions
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Bringing Nordea from Good to Great
Ambitious vision and targets
Profit orientation- Cost, risk and capital
Clear growth strategy
Strong customer oriented values and culture
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Ambitious vision and targets
Target
In the top quartile of European peer group
In line with top Nordic peers
Double in 7 years**
Policy
> 40% of net profit
Long term financial targets
TSR (%)
Risk adjusted profit (EUR m)*
RoE (%)
Capital structure policy
Dividend payout-ratio
Tier 1 capital ratio > 6.5%
2007
# 3 of 20
15%
19.7% (19.1% excl non-recurring items)
42% (proposed)
7.0%
* Risk-adjusted profit is defined as total income less total expenses, less expected losses and standard tax. In addition, Risk adjusted profit excludes major non-recurring items.
** Baseline 2006 EUR 2,107m
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• We focus on profitable organic growth
• We focus on strict cost management, prudent risk control and efficient capital management
• We think and act with the customer in mind
• We understand individual customerneeds and exceed expectations
• We deliver professionally
• We create long-term relationship
The leading Nordic bank,acknowledged for its people, creating superior
value for customers and shareholders
Great customer experience It’s all about people One Nordea team
• We acknowledge that people make the difference
• We enable people to perform and grow
• We foster initiative-taking and timely execution
• We assess performance in an honest and fair way
• We team up to create value
• We work together across the organisation
• We show trust and assume accountability
• We make rules and instructions clear and applicable
Profit orientation – cost, risk and capital
Strong customer-oriented values and culture
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Clear growth strategy
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A profitable organic growth strategy with clear initiatives
Household strategy
• Expanded distribution capacity in Poland
• Russia – broaden focus to include all segments
• Selective growth in the Baltic countries
Based on strong competencies
• Free up time for sales• Unify customer processes• Employer branding and recruitment, talent management and leadership competencies
• Added advisory capacity
• Capture internal pool of potential customers
• New Corporate Merchant Banking concept
• Cash equity and corporate finance
• Growth in sale of value-added capital markets products
• Migration to premium segments
• Attract new customers to premium segments
• Focus on Sweden
Private banking Corporate strategy
• Reinforced #1 position in shipping
• Reinforced strong international position in Private Banking and Fund Distribution
Selective growth strategy
Existing Nordic customers and new customersSelected global and European business lines
New European Markets
Next level of efficiency to support sustainable growth
• Unify product delivery processes• Next phase of improvements cross units
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700
200
100 250
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Private Banking Gold** Silver Bronze0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Income per customer FY 2007 (Silver customer = 100)
Significant potential in migrating household customers to higher segments
* In addition Nordea services approx 2 million customers outside customer programmes** Excl children under 18 years
Gold and Private banking customers are the engines for revenue growth
A Gold customer generates 8 times higher income than a Bronze customer
Approx. 1 million potential Gold customers in the customer base –strong source for further growth
2.4
1.4
2.9
Income (Index)
Customers* (millions)
0.07
Number of customers
4x
2x
3,5x
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Proactive sales drive growth in premium segments
Proactive sales create growth momentum – strong increase in PBA meetings
Continued growth in business with Gold customers
11% increase in business volume
Increased number of Gold customers
Up 7% YoY
More than 1/5 are new customers in Nordea
Gold segment YoY 2007 (Jan-Dec)
132146
No. of customers(mill)
Volume percustomer(EUR'000)
Business volumes(EUR bn)
2.22.4
7.2%3.5%
10.9%
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73535
6159
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Income in Nordic Banking Sweden 7%
Improved market position
Focus on services and product segments with strongest growth potential; long term savings, consumer loans, capital market products
Initiative continues in 2008Focus on advisory capacity – 100 advisors to be recruited
Finalising the deal with SvenskKassaservice
Converting 76 branches
Taking over 350 employees
Growth Plan Sweden on trackIncome growth %
7
-1-1
1
3
5
7
9
Q108/Q107
Nordea Nordic Banking Sweden Weighted average peers in Sweden*
953 1 021
285 358
Q1 2007 Q1 2008Number of PBAs Number of Branches
Svensk Kassaservice (76)*Total income in Swedbank adjusted for capital gain from sale of branches
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Nordic Private Banking segment YoY (Jan-Dec)
Continued strong growth in Private Banking
Growth success of Private Banking continued in 2007
Net inflow of EUR 4.3bn
120 new adviser
13,000 new customers
Multiple sources for volume growthIncrease volume with existing Private Banking customers
Attract external capital from existing customers
Tapping the internal pool of potential Private Banking customers, e.g. business owners
External customer acquisition
Average income per customer FY 2007 (Silver customer = 100)
700
200100
250
200
400
600
800
PrivateBanking
Gold* Silver Bronze
3.5x
AuM
4246
520
No. of customers(‘000) (EURbn)
75
16,3%
7.7%
88
No. of advisers
18.7%
788664
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Strengthening the corporate offering
Large
Medium
Corporate Merchant Banking
Small536,000
55,000
15,000
1,000
The customer team concept –
Individual solutions involving relationship mangers and specialists from all relevant Nordea units
The relationship manager – one single-point-of contact for customers
# customers
New concept leveraging Nordea’s full-range product expertise, strong balance sheet and placing power in the capital markets
• Leveraging structuring capabilities to develop and cross- sell capital markets products
• New value proposition to entrepreneurs• Significant growth opportunities arises from customers
having both personal and corporate business with Nordea
Capital market products
Service model combining Nordea’s strong capabilities with local presence
• New Nordic unit - strengthened research capacity and retained local presence
• Designed to meet intensified demands from large corporates and institutional customers
Corporate finance and cash equity
Corporate Merchant Banking
Launching new concept to segment small
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Focus on Capital Markets products to corporate customers
Customer driven demand for Capital markets products continue to increaseExploiting untapped demand in large- and SME segments
Corporate activity remained high throughout 2007 driven by financing and hedging needs
Strategic initiative to strengthen Nordea’scash equity and corporate finance offeringOpportunity to leverage Nordea’s highly competitive offering
Leading Corporate Risk Management offeringLeading capabilities in debt and equity capital issuances
Total revenues in Markets related to Nordic Banking customers
379
478
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007
EURm
+26%
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Reinforcing and leveraging strong positions in selected Global and European business lines
# 1 position in Shipping Strong position in wealth management in Luxemburg and Switzerland
World-leading provider of shipping finance
Leveraging lending book through increased cross selling
Mainly capital markets products but also cash management and custody products
Full scale wealth management offering
Close collaboration with Nordic Private Banking on tools, products and customer referrals
Significantly expanding advisory desks for the German, UK, Baltic, and Russian markets in 2008-2009
Luxemburg-based international fund distribution – 1,200 intermediates
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New European Markets
3136 39
83
6863
0102030405060708090
Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07
EURm
Total income
*
Strong growth and well controlled risk exposure in New European Markets
* Orgresbank consolidated from Q2 2007
An increasingly important component in the long-term growth strategy
Continued prudent credit policies in the Baltic countries enables Nordea to grow with stable credit quality
Total lending up 78%, (excl. Orgresbank)
Total lending within New European Markets accounts for 4% of total lending in Nordea
Increased number of Gold customers, up 74%
Revenues from New European Markets accounts for 3.5% of Nordea Group revenues
Creating value through market specific organic growth strategies
40 new branches opened in Poland
12 new branches opened in the Baltics
C/I improved to 57% (64%) – despite investments in branch network and doubled number of FTEs
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Expand branch network to capture growth in Poland
Income, income growth (CAGR %) and # branches
41 41 4145
48 48
58
85
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1/06Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/0730
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Total income Number of branches
Poland market size closing in on Nordic countriesSuperior growth compared to the Nordic regionTo capture the growth Nordea’s target is to open 150 branches in 2007 – 2009 , up from 50
Average break-even on a branch is 9 monthsExpansion progressing ahead of plan
New branches focus on acquiring mass affluent customers and SME
Same offering as in the Nordic countries for both corporate and household customersHousing loans a customer acquisition vehicle when targeting new gold customers
EURm
+32%
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Leverage Nordea’s strengths and offering from the Nordic market Replicate proven business model from PolandMaintain a strict credit management policy
Continue leverage SME strongholdGrowth fuelled by customer wins among large corporates
Rapid growth of business with Nordic corporatesComparatively low risk, attractive cash flows
Start-up phase: leveraging the Nordea offeringFocus on consumer finance to affluent segment Up to 13 new branches in 2007
Organic growth strategy in Russia
…to Russian corporates
…to Nordic corporates
…to Retail households
General approach
42
Next level of efficiency
43
Strong track record of improved cost efficiency
C / I (%)64
63
60
58
5352
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
No of employees reduced with 7.000 since 2002
Centralised procurement – EUR 160m in annual savings from sourcing, premises, economies of scale
Organisational complexity reduced
Harmonised IT-platforms within large parts of the group, unified front end systems in Nordic Banking
Lean banking and best practice changes across the Group
Total expenses in real terms down 11% since 2002
C/I-ratio down 12 %-points since 2002
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Private Banking
Banking & Capital Market Products
Savings & Life Products
Group Services & Technology
People & Identity
Account Products
Cash Management & Payments
Nordic Banking
Savings Products & Asset Management
Capital Market Products
Institutional & International Banking
Segm
ent H
ouse
hold
&
Cor
pora
te
Group Corporate Centre
Group Credit & Risk Control
Group Legal
Stronger customer-orientationSimple, transparent delivery processesClear responsibilities
Improve customer experienceSimpler value chain - further efficiency gains
Increase time with customersReduce time-to-market
In practice
Objectives
Key features
New Operating Model
Next phase of efficiency improvements goes cross units
Next level of integration leads to further efficiency gains
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Next level of integration will free up time for sales and provide further efficiency improvements
New operating model: Next phase of efficiency improvements go cross units
Increase the time Personal Bank Advisors and Relationship Managers spend with customers
Target to increase time spend with customers 50-100%
Efficiency gains to create resources for growth
Free up time for sales Unified customer and product delivery processesUnification and streamlining of sales processes and sales support systems – Future Branch
Harmonising and consolidating business processes and IT-solutions – Nordea Transformation Programme
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A clear strategy for growth
Existingbusiness
Nordicgrow thinitives
NewEuropeanMarkets
Global andEuropean
nichebusinesses
Volume andsalary
increases +inflation
Investmentsin New
EuropeanMarkets
Investmentsin Nordicgrow thinitives
Improvedefficiency
Profitgrow th
Revenue growth Cost growth Risk-adjusted profit
7-10% 4-8% >10%
TargetCAGR 7 years horizon
Bringing Nordea from Good to Great
2007- 2008
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Outlook for 2008Turbulent development in international capital markets has significantly increased uncertainty for 2008
Costs related to investments in growth areas are expected to amount to EUR 100-120m 2008
Continued investments in growth areas and increased wage inflation is expected to lead to somewhat higher cost increase in 2008, compared with 2007
If economic growth slows down more than now anticipated, Nordea will review the level of growth investments
Based on forecast for GDP growth for the Nordic region, as well as for interest rates the risk-adjusted profit is expected to grow in the range of 5-10% 2008
Overall quality of the Nordea credit portfolio remains strong
For 2008 Nordea expects some net loan loss charges as reversals of previously made provision likely to decrease
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Concluding remarks
Strong result 2007 – based on growth strategy and prudent risk management
Nordea well in place to handle continued market turbulence
Strong business growth well managed in Basel II
Well diversified lending portfolio and revenue streams
Broad and diversified funding base
Ambitious vision and targets
Strong customer-oriented values and culture
A profitable organic growth strategy with clear initiatives
Take Nordea to the next level of operational efficiency and support sustained growth
Bring Nordea from “Good to Great”
Arne LiljedahlExecutive Vice President and Group CFO
London, 1 April 2008
Morgan Stanley European Banks & Financials Conference