Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America...

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Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO

Transcript of Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America...

Page 1: Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO.

Morgan StanleyBasic Materials Conference 2006

February 23, 2006

Packaging Corporation of America

Paul T. SteckoChairman and CEO

Page 2: Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO.

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Certain statements in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about our future financial condition, our industry and our business strategy. Statements that contain words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “hope” or similar expressions, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations of PCA.

Because forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, the plans, actions and actual results of PCA could differ materially. Among the factors that could cause plans, actions and results to differ materially from PCA’s current expectations are those identified under the caption “Risk Factors” in PCA’s Form 10K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the SEC’s website at “www.sec.gov”.

Packaging Corporation of America

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Pure Play in the Right Product

% of Revenues from Containerboard and Corrugated Products

Weyerhaeuser PCA InternationalPaper

Temple-InlandSmurfit-Stone

Koch / GP

97%

76%

58%

19% 18%15%

Note: Based on company press releases and PCA and analyst estimates

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0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Export % Import %

Containerboard Imports and Exportsas a Percentage of Production

Source: AF & PA reports

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Containerboard Capacity Growth (U.S. Only)

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: AF & PA Capacity Survey. Includes permanent shutdowns announced after the survey and current indefinite shutdowns as of February 20, 2006.

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-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'06

Industry Corrugated Products DemandPer Workday(2)

Year-over-Year% Change (1)

(1) Year-over-year change 2005 vs 2004 by month, and Jan. 2006(2) Source: Fiber Box Association

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2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1985 – 2004 Inventory 2005 Inventory

Total Industry Containerboard Inventories1985 - 2005

Source: FBA

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2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

Inventory Linerboard Prices

Industry Containerboard Inventory & Pricing

Sources: Industry Inventory, Fiber Box Association and American Forest & Paper Association; Linerboard Prices, Industry Publications

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Price Per Ton000 Tons

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Mill2005 Production

(000 tons)% of

ProductionLinerboard

Counce, TN 966 41%Valdosta, GA 475 20%

Total Linerboard 1,441 61%

Corrugating MediumTomahawk, WI 531 23%Filer City, MI 375 16%

Total Medium 906 39%Total System 2,347 100%

Mill System

* Counce

* Tomahawk

* Filer City

Valdosta *

• Low Cost

• Primarily Virgin Fiber

• Fiber and Energy Flexibility

• Low Natural Gas Usage

• Lightweight Capability

• High Integration Level

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$/Ton

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F

Recycled Fiber Prices HistoricallyHave Been Very Volatile

HK

JAP

Oth

er

63%19% U.S.EUR

China’s Sources of OCC (2003)

Source: Industry publications for OCC pricing excluding delivery costs

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

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100% 100%

59%55%

38% 36%30%

23%19%

Limited Exposure to Potential IncreasesIn Wastepaper Prices

Wastepaper Utilization

Source: Industry publications and PCA estimates

Solvay Norampac Temple-Inland Koch / GP International Paper

Visy Weyerhaeuser Smurfit-Stone PCA

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Natural Gas as a Percent of Total Mill Purchased Fuels

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Dec. '05

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

% Use(1)

Avg. Price/M2BTU(2)

(1) PCA actual consumption(2) Delivered NYMEX pipeline price

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3%

18%

44%

35%

Mill Purchased Fuel Mix

Nat

ura

l Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

4Q ’05 Actual2000

36%

4%

27%

33%

Natural Gas

Bark

Coal

Oil

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Corrugated Products

Differentiated Operating Strategy

• Stand-alone profit centers

• Value-added products

• Two-thirds local accounts

• Over 8,300 customers

• Top 30 accounts represent

only about 30% of sales

Page 15: Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO.

15Corrugated plantsSheet/specialty plants

Corrugated Products System

Oxnard

Garland

Phoenix

Salt Lake City Windsor

NorthglennDenver

El Paso

Waco

Plano

Los Angeles

OmahaMarshalltown

MinneapolisGolden Valley

Muskogee

Colby

Jackson

Winter Haven

Jacksonville

Opelika

Atlanta

NewberryHonea Path

RutherfordtonMorgantonKnoxville

GoldsboroSalisbury

High Point

Roanoke

RichmondHarrisonburg

Baltimore

Northampton

Chelmsford

Watertown

Syracuse

Buffalo

Conrad

Milwaukee

Burlington

Vincennes

Gas City

AllentownTrexlertown

LancasterHanover

Edmore

GrandvillePlymouth

Akron

Pittsburgh

Middletown Newark

Ashland

South Gate

Arlington

Donna

Fairfield

Franklin

Acorn

Jackson

OliveBranch

St. Louis

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-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Corrugated Products Growth

Cu

mu

lati

ve %

Ch

ang

e

Source: FBA Data for Industry

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

PCA Industry

2005

PCA 4.6%

Industry 0.6%

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Debt Structure

Asset Securitization $ 109 4.72 October 2006 (Receivables Revolving Credit Facility)

Term Loan 39 5.78 July 2008

5-Year Notes 150 4.38 August 2008

10-Year Notes 400 5.75 August 2013

Total $ 698 5.30

Revolver (2) $ 100 July 2008

Cash On Hand $ 113

(1) Excludes $2.9 million of unamortized debt discount related to the 5-year and 10-year notes.(2) Undrawn as of December 31, 2005.

Amount ($MM) (1)

Cash InterestRate (%) Maturity

As of December 31, 2005

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Temple Inland 2.1

Weyerhaeuser 2.6

International Paper 3.9

Smurfit Stone 6.2

Temple Inland 42%

Weyerhaeuser 52%

International Paper 65%

Smurfit Stone 69%

Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) / Debt / Adjusted EBITDA(2) Adjusted Interest (2) Total Capital

Temple Inland 6.4

Weyerhaeuser 5.6

International Paper 4.4

Smurfit Stone 2.1

(1) Debt / Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA / Adjusted Interest, and Debt / Total Capital are ratios commonly used by the ratings agencies. Total capital is calculated as total debt plus minority interest plus shareholders’ equity. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest are calculated for the 12 month period ended September 30, 2005 and both exclude unusual or non-recurring items.

(2) Adjustments ($ in millions) were made to the following companies’ reported income before interest and taxes per their SEC filings or press releases to eliminate unusual or non-recurring

items.

International Paper 25.0 Temple Inland 100.0 Smurfit Stone 380.0 Weyerhaeuser 49.0

Weyerhaeuser’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude the loss from early debt extinguishment of $73.0 million and income received from the sale of an investment of $115.0 million. International Paper’s reported interest was adjusted to exclude interest income related to a tax audit agreement and collection of a note receivable of $54.0 million. No other adjustments were made to the other companies’ reported interest.

(3) PCA’s adjusted EBITDA is calculated as follows:

Income before interest and taxes, as reported for the period $ 175.7Less: STV Dividends (39.2)Add: plant closure and severance costs 2.2

Adjusted EBIT 138.7Add: Depreciation, depletion and amortization as reported the period 159.4

Adjusted EBITDA $ 298.1

Source: Company SEC filings and press releases

PCA (3) 2.3

PCA (3) 10.5

PCA 47%

Strong Credit Profile September 2005 Data(1)

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Secondary Offering and Share Repurchase December 2005

MDP Ownership of PCA Stock 44.1 40.8% 59.2%

Secondary Offering of PCA Common Stock by MDP (17.8) $21.50

PCA Common Stock ShareRepurchase from MDP (4.5) $20.69

MDP Remaining Ownership after 21.8 21.0% 79.0%Secondary and Share Repurchase

Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)

Note: As a result of share repurchase and retirement, basic shares outstanding were reduced from 108.2 million shares to 103.7 million shares.

Million % of Total Price / Public Market Shares PCA Shares Share Float

Page 20: Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO.

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Dividend Yield (1)

(1) Based on share prices as of February 20, 2006 and announced annual dividend rates

4.3%

3.0% 2.9%

2.3%

0.0%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

PCA IP WY TIN SSCC

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• Single Business Focus - Operational Excellence

• Grow Corrugated Products Volume- Internal Growth

- Acquisitions

• Enhance Shareholder Value Through Financial and Strategic Flexibility

Strategy

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• Strong Containerboard Fundamentals

• Pure Play in Containerboard

• Strong Management Team With Proven Track Record

• Low Dependence on Natural Gas and Oil

• Strong Business Profile – Low Cost Mills and Profitable Box Plants With an Outstanding Product Mix and Customer Base

• Attractive Dividend Yield

• Focus on Shareholder Value

Investor Highlights

Page 23: Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference 2006 February 23, 2006 Packaging Corporation of America Paul T. Stecko Chairman and CEO.