MOOCs and Executive Education · their long‐term strategy is at a new high of 69.1 percent (50%...
Transcript of MOOCs and Executive Education · their long‐term strategy is at a new high of 69.1 percent (50%...
MOOCs and Executive EducationJennifer Kay Stine, Ph.D.Research Report Prepared for UNICONPresented at the Directors Conference, April 2013(Updated October 2013)
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• Environment• History• Players, Stakeholders and Business Models• ‘Disruptiveness’• What This Means for Exec. Ed.• Survey Results• Q/A, Your Thoughts and Suggestions
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Session Overview
• Education (courses… certificates… credit? degrees?) at scale
• MOOC: Massively Open Online Course– Free (mostly)– Semester‐long (changing)– Online– ‘Innovative’– World‐class institutions and faculty– Order of magnitude
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What’s the big deal?
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• The cost of a college education continues to be in the US national spotlight– Since 1985 the cost of a college education has increased more than
500% (while the consumer price index increased 115%)*– US student loan debt exceeds credit card debt
• Global internet and broadband access has increased greatly– 2011: 2.26B internet users, 589 million with fixed wire broadband
(5.9B with mobile‐cellular and 1.6B with active mobile broadband subscriptions) **
– This is a greater than 500% increase since 2000, when global internet users numbered 361K.***
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Environment
* http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveodland/2012/03/24/college‐costs‐are‐soaring/** http://www.ericsson.com/res/docs/2012/the‐state‐of‐broadband‐2012.pdf*** http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
• Over 6.7 million students were taking at least one online course during the fall 2011 term, an increase of 570,000 students over the previous year.
• Thirty‐two percent of higher education students now take at least one course online.
• The proportion of chief academic leaders that say that online learning is critical to their long‐term strategy is at a new high of 69.1 percent (50% in 2002)
• To date, MOOCs are a very small part of this market– 2.6 percent of higher education institutions currently have a MOOC (Massive Open
Online Course), another 9.4 percent report MOOCs are in the planning stages.
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Online Education Has Grown Steadily
Changing Course: Ten Years of Tracking Online Education in the United States, http://www.onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/changingcourse.pdf
1862 Pitman Shorthand training program brought cutting edge stenography
via US Mail
1892 U. of Chicago created first college‐level
distance learning program
1923 ICS, started in 1890 to teach mine safety, had
enrolled over 2.5M students
1921‐1946 FCC grants radio licenses to over 200 colleges (only one course
offered by 1940)
1934 U. of Iowa broadcast courses by
television
1964, U. of WI, funded by Carnegie created the AIM project to identify and systematize distance learning practices,
including multimedia
1970, Coastline College the first without a physical campus
1980s satellite television systems became cost effective for employee training and were
embraced by industry
1985, National Technological University (NTU) started offering degree courses to employees at
corporations and labs
1993, Jones University offered online instruction in 5 bachelors and 24 masters, and was
accredited by the Higher Learning Commission
2002, MIT launches OpenCourseWare in
response to Fathom.com and other initiatives
2005, WebCT and Blackboard merged
under Blackboard brand
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A Brief Timeline of Distance Learning Innovations
http://www.evolution‐of‐distance‐learning.com/ and “A Journey to Legitimacy: The Historical Development of Distance Education through Technology” by D. Casey
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Open Education Developments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Figure_1_MOOCs_and_Open_Education_Timeline_p6.jpg
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http://chronicle.com/article/Major‐Players‐in‐the‐MOOC/138817/
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Udacity
Thrun(Stanford)
For profit, 2012
$21M venture funding
>750K students
~25 active courses
Select faculty and industry partners
Georgia Tech, SJSU, Google, ATT
Coursera
Ng & Koller(Stanford)
For profit, 2012
$65M venturefunding
4M+ students
~400 courses
80+ institutions
180K in one course (Philosophy, 2012)
edX
Argwal(MIT)
Nonprofit, 2012
$60M+ funds, grants, gifts
~1M registered users
~33 courses
28 universities
160K in one course (Circuits, 2012)
Udemy
Paid course platform, with some free
For profit, 2010
$16M venture
~600K registered
6000 courses
Individual faculty
Generated $15M since launch
Top faculty earn $500K
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Student Demographics
http://mfeldstein.com/moocs‐beyond‐professional‐development‐courseras‐big‐announcement‐in‐context/
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Completion Patternshttp://mfeldstein.com/emerging_student_patterns_in_moocs_graphical_view/
Lurkers –people enroll but just observe or sample a few items at the most. Many of these students do not even get beyond registering for the MOOC or maybe watching part of a video.
Drop‐Ins –partially or fully active participants for a select topic within the course, but do not attempt to complete the entire course. Some use MOOCs informally to find content that help them meet course goals elsewhere.
Passive Participants – students who view a course as content to consume and expect to be taught. These students typically watch videos, perhaps take quizzes, but tend to not participate in activities or class discussions.
Active Participants – These are the students who fully intend to participate in the MOOC, including consuming content, taking quizzes and exams, taking part in activities.
Content Creation
Faculty Specialists/Consultants
Content Development & Delivery (inc. certificates)
Udacity Coursera‐Univ. ‘universityX’ Udemy* Faculty
Platforms
Udacity Coursera edX Udemy Blackboard Google
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Activities Vary
*more than 10,000 people have taken Udemy’s course on how to design and teach a Udemy course
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US Provost Survey
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/survey/skepticism‐about‐tenure‐moocs‐and‐presidency‐survey‐provosts
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US Provost Survey
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/survey/skepticism‐about‐tenure‐moocs‐and‐presidency‐survey‐provosts
• Corporate recruiting (job referrals, sponsored classes)• Educational outsourcing/licensing of platforms, courses, content• ‘Freemium’: Fee‐for‐certificate and/or credit and/or identity verification;
also some free (independent), some fee (academic)• Channeling participants into subsequent for‐fee courses and programs
(loss‐leader)
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Business Models are Emerging
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324339204578173421673664106.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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Industry Partners and Sponsors
https://www.udacity.com/opened
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Business Schools Join the Party…
(Coursera now has 45 business and management courses, 4 to 12 weeks long)
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013‐09‐13/wharton‐puts‐first‐year‐mba‐courses‐online‐for‐free
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19/stanford‐b‐school‐jumps‐on‐the‐mooc‐bandwagon
Prof. Mike Lenox, UVA Darden, “Foundations of Business Strategy” 6‐week MOOC delivered on Coursera, March 2013, 90,000+ enrolled:• As a teacher, I have been thrilled to see the reach and impact of my MOOC,
Foundations of Business Strategy.– Students from over 50 countries are participating including students from
the Philippines, Australia, Rwanda, Croatia, UAE, Mexico, Egypt and Argentina among many others.
– I will have taught more than 5x as many students in a six week period than have graduated from the Darden School over its entire 50‐year plus existence.
– Every day, I receive thanks from students for the opportunity to take the course – many who are applying the concepts in their working lives as they take the course and who otherwise would not have access to such material.
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Faculty are an Important Driver
http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2013/03/29/the‐imminent‐shakeout‐disruptive‐innovation‐and‐higher‐education/
• A cost leader (or leaders) will emerge catering to the mass market.– They will leverage technology to provide an effective and efficient education. They will cater to the population who
may not have had access to higher education thirty years ago.– The emergence of the cost leader position will be bad news for the many for‐profit online universities that have
arisen in recent years and for numerous non‐selective residential universities. This is where the shakeout will be most disruptive.
– This disruption will play out over years, if not decades, as struggling colleges fight to stay alive and student attitudes towards online education evolve.
• Retrenchment and growth of a group of elite differentiated players who compete globally for the best students.
– They will emphasize the benefits of a residential education and they will charge significant tuition premiums.– They will be highly selective and highly sought after.– Some will adopt niche positions catering to elite students of one type or another.– They will leverage technology, but as a way to improve the efficacy of their residential programs.– They will dabble in MOOCs, not as a source of significant revenue generation, but as a way to enhance their global
brand and reach.
The question for a traditional university will be which of these worlds it will sort.
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Lenox predicts market bifurcation:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2013/03/29/the‐imminent‐shakeout‐disruptive‐innovation‐and‐higher‐education/
• my MOOC does not replicate the Darden classroom experience• at a Socratic case‐based school like Darden, we have been flipping the classroom
for over 50 years• learning that emerges from an engaged, real‐time discussion cannot be replicated
on an online forum.• the fear, and triumph, of presenting your ideas for scrutiny often at the bequest of
the faculty member (what we refer to as a “cold call”) is a powerful learning experience
• this type of engagement cannot be conducted asynchronously and it cannot be scaled
Note: not all faculty active in MOOCs make this distinction
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That said, Lenox points out:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/darden/2013/03/29/the‐imminent‐shakeout‐disruptive‐innovation‐and‐higher‐education/
• The question is not just whether MOOCs are going to disrupt traditional education, but how…. MOOCs do bear the early hallmarks of a disruptive innovation:– Serves non‐consumers– Marches upmarket– Redefines quality
• We believe they are likely to evolve into a “scale business”: one that relies on the technology and data backbone of the medium to optimize and individualize learning opportunities for millions of students.
• …universities are likely investing in MOOCs now because disruption theory is finally widely enough understood that astute leaders know how to identify and chase opportunities early.
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Clay Christensen Weighs In On Disruption:
http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/02/beyond‐the‐mooc‐buzz‐where‐are‐they‐going‐really/
• …over time, an approach where users exchange information from each other similar to Facebook…(a “facilitated network model”) will come to dominate online learning.
• …likely to happen if the traditional degree becomes irrelevant and, as many predict,* learning becomes a continuous, on‐the‐job learning process…the need for customization will drive us toward just‐in‐time mini‐courses.
• In this case, facilitated networks or adaptive learning platforms — like Khan Academy and Knewton — may actually be better positioned than MOOCs
– not unlike what happened in the car industry: The Ford Model T dominated the American car market … until General Motors brought forth choice and variety.
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Christensen’s Predictions
http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/02/beyond‐the‐mooc‐buzz‐where‐are‐they‐going‐really/N. Harden, “The End of the University as We Know It,” In fifty years, if not much sooner, half of the roughly 4,500 colleges anduniversities now operating in the United States will have ceased to exist. http://www.the‐american‐interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352
• …maybe just 10% of the executive education market is "safe"
• it will upend the rest of the market…a few star professors who deliver the content online (the Khan's of the exec ed market)
• a hoard of "lower‐level" local instructors who will help with the breakouts.
• The traditional exec ed professor will be squeezed out.
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Morten T. Hansen Weighs in On Exec Ed
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2013/01/executive_education_is_ripe_fo.html
• Many companies have online learning platforms they need content for, creating demand;
• Spending a week in an exec ed program is consuming so much time that alternatives such as a hybrid online program look attractive;
• Ever‐better technologies make the online experience more appealing;• Pressures on cost will lead to more adoption of online exec ed;• Another reason for getting people together in an exec ed program — that
of networking — can be done through online networking tool, so why meet?
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Hansen’s Drivers
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2013/01/executive_education_is_ripe_fo.html
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What About Our Audiences and Programs?
• Broad agreement this is a rapidly changing landscape and it is difficult to predict the future
• Opportunity for innovation, staying ahead of curve – including capitalizing on press attention
• Opportunities to extend blended learning activities and possibly online learning in organizations
– Deepening engagement at scale
• Several institutions actively working on strategies – work not complete• Likely near‐term threat is to open enrollment (not custom) and skills‐based topics
(not leadership or strategy)– For example, Finance for Non‐financial Mangers
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Exec. Ed. Interviews
• Sent to ~13,000 past participants of executive education programs from five institutions
– MIT, Columbia, INSEAD, ITAM, University of Alberta
• Of these, 676 responses (5% response rate; range 2.5% to 7.3%)– 241 (36%) of these responses were to a Spanish‐language survey
• Geographic location: 61 countries represented (English, n=414)– 39% of respondents reside in the US, – 7% in Mexico, and – 3% each in France, Brazil, Switzerland, Canada, Germany, followed by 2% each Australia, Japan.
• Age (English, n=417) – 67% of respondents were between ages 30 and 49. – 26% were aged 50‐59. – Under 30 and over 60 were 3% each, respectively
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UNICON Survey (March 2013)
• English‐language survey participants split in support for face‐to‐face versus blended learning (n=433)
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Value of Online vs. In‐Person
• Spanish language responses weighted somewhat more towards blended and less face‐to‐face (n=238)
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Value of Online vs. In‐Person
• Lower‐cost online options are attractive, but they don’t have to be free• Certification is of interest• Course credit mattered more in the Spanish‐language survey
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Why Enroll in Online?
Which o f the fo llo wing cond itio ns would make yo u MORE like ly to enro ll in a n o nline Executive Ed uca tio n p ro g ra m? (che ck a ll tha t a p p ly)
Answer Op tionsRespo nse
Pe rce nt Eng lish
Resp onse Pe rcent Sp anish
It is lower cost than a similar face-to-face program 45.5% 47.5%It offers certification in a field 44.0% 39.9%I receive academic, graduate-level, or course credit 41.2% 66.0%My company sponsors my participation 34.8% 30.7%It offers a general certificate of completion 29.5% 48.7%It is free 24.0% 17.6%It could help me with a promotion 23.8% 26.9%
(English, n=420, Spanish n=238)
• Most respondents had taken self‐paced online training (n=346, Spanish data similar)
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Experiences to Date
• Participation in free university courses relatively low
• Awareness of MOOCs was about 30% (n=351)
– 94% of Spanish were unaware of free university courses
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MOOC‐type, specificallyIn the p a st ye a r, ha ve yo u e nro lle d in a fre e se me ste r-lo ng course o ffe re d b y a unive rs ity? (che ck a ll tha t a p p ly)
Re sp o nse Perce nt Eng lish
Resp o nse Pe rce nt Sp a nish
7.1% 2.5%1.7% 0.0%3.7% 1.0%2.3% 0.5%0.0% 0.5%
16.5% 2.0%8.3% 2.0%69.2% 93.5%
I am not interested in these coursesI have never heard of these courses
CourseraUdacityedXKahn AcademyUdemity
I don't have time to do these courses
Answe r Op tio ns
• For those who did enroll in free online courses (n=130), the completion rates were relatively high (54%)– MOOC completion rates about ~7%
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Completion rates
• 52.1% of English‐language respondents felt online was highly or well suited for executive education (n=417)
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Suitability
• An even higher percentage (67.7%) of Spanish‐language respondents felt it was very well or well suited (n=192)
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Suitability
• 228 (English) chose to comment on why or why not.– Saving time was critical, as was quality– Travel costs were frequently cited– Networking and interactive learning were important– Some subjects and goals were considered more appropriate for online than others– Many felt like a combination of face‐to‐face and online provided the best option
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Why or Why Not Learn Online?
OnlineHighly orWell Suited –Open Response Word Frequency(n=113):
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OnlineNot Well orPoorly Suited –Open Response Word Frequency(n=53):
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• Change won’t happen overnight, but it is happening• Important space to watch / explore for learning and delivery innovations• Space where you can support your clients
– Strategy– Unmet needs– Blended learning (meeting customer needs + preserving margins)
• Implications of global reach not clear – may be a larger force than those currently in play
• Cost implications not clear – quality education remains expensive– Cohort experience, in‐person learning are valued
• Think from your faculty members’ point of view
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Some Thoughts and Take‐Aways
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Additions? Reflections? Questions?