Monthly O Coal C T Update 20 · country-wise coking coal imports to india (qty in mt) (apr- aug...

Monthly Coal Update

OCT20

2 J. M. Baxi & Co. COAL Update | October 2020

Port Anlaysis

Coking Coal Traff ic At Indian Ports (Qty In Mt)

Non - Coking Coal Traff ic At Indian Ports (Qty In Mt)

COKE TRAFFIC AT INDIAN PORTS (Qty In Mt)

Country -Wise Non Coking Coal Imports To India (Qty In Mt)

Country-Wise Coking Coal Imports To India (Qty In Million Tonnes)

Country-Wise Coke Imports to India (Qty In Mt)

Top 15 Coking Coal Importers (Qty In Million Tonnes)

Top 15 Non Coking Coal Importers (Qty In Million Tonnes)

TOP 15 COKE IMPORTERS (QTY IN MT)

Market Overview And Trends

Highlights

Contents

Disclaimer: The information contained in this market update is drawn from wide range of newspapers, business and trade magazines,

government, company and industry association websites. While all possible care is taken to verify the correctness and authenticity of

information contained in this compilation, no claim to independent authorship of articles is implied or intended. Readers are expected

to make their own independent evaluation and verification of information for their use. While all information contained in this report

are believed to be correct, the editors of this compilation or J. M. Baxi & Co. do not guarantee the quotes or other data and the same is

provided only in good faith.

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October 2020 | J. M. Baxi & Co. COAL Update 3

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PORT NAME APR- AUG 20-21 APR - AUG 19-20 VARIANCE

DHAMRA 0.361 0.246 0.115

ENNORE 0.000 0.005 -0.005

GANGAVARAM 0.155 0.178 -0.023

GOPALPUR 0.000 0.004 -0.004

HALDIA 0.203 0.421 -0.218

JAIGAD 0.165 0.105 0.060

KANDLA 0.000 0.015 -0.015

KARAIKAL 0.000 0.016 -0.016

KOLKATA 0.000 0.003 -0.003

KRISHNAPATNAM 0.044 0.044 0.000

MANGALORE 0.002 0.001 0.001

MORMUGAO 0.354 0.340 0.014

MUNDRA 0.016 0.028 -0.012

PARADIP 0.382 0.577 -0.194

SAGAR ROADS 0.000 0.008 -0.008

TUTICORIN 0.242 0.139 0.103

VISAKHAPATNAM 0.177 0.381 -0.204

SANDHEADS 0.02 0.05 -0.03

TUNA 0.00 0.13 -0.13

TUTICORIN 3.34 4.48 -1.14

VISAKHAPATNAM 6.43 3.66 2.77

GRAND TOTAL 52.00 48.15 3.86

COKING COAL TRAFFIC AT INDIAN PORTS (QTY IN MT)


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PORT NAME APR- AUG 20-21 APR-AUG 19-20 VARIANCE

ANGRE 0.002 0.000 0.002

BEDI 0.023 0.000 0.023

BHAVNAGAR 0.072 0.050 0.023

DAHEJ 0.163 0.191 -0.028

DHAMRA 0.160 0.381 -0.221

DHARAMTAR 0.074 0.137 -0.062

DIAMOND HARBOUR 0.001 0.003 -0.002

ENNORE 0.595 0.655 -0.059

GANGAVARAM 0.335 0.599 -0.263

GOPALPUR 0.004 0.000 0.004

HALDIA 0.184 0.300 -0.116

HAZIRA 0.254 0.274 -0.020

JAIGAD 0.143 0.305 -0.162

KAKINADA 0.047 0.204 -0.157

KANDLA 0.358 0.267 0.091

KARAIKAL 0.277 0.020 0.257

KRISHNAPATNAM 0.908 1.357 -0.450

MAGDALLA 0.126 0.286 -0.160

MANGALORE 0.109 0.227 -0.119

MORMUGAO 0.019 0.052 -0.033

MUMBAI 0.065 0.112 -0.046

MUNDRA 0.974 1.423 -0.449

NAVLAKHI 0.243 0.408 -0.165

OKHA 0.028 0.033 -0.006

PARADIP 0.959 1.190 -0.231

PIPAVAV 0.035 0.040 -0.005

PORBANDAR 0.009 0.019 -0.009

RANPAR 0.006 0.000 0.006

SAGAR ROADS 0.030 0.043 -0.014

SALAYA 0.145 0.187 -0.042

SANDHEADS 0.010 0.000 0.010

TUNA 0.127 0.186 -0.059

TUTICORIN 0.317 0.397 -0.080


NON - COKING COAL TRAFFIC AT INDIAN PORTS (QTY IN MT)


PORT NAME APR-AUG 20-21 APR-AUG 19-20 VARIANCE

ANGRE 0.002 0.000 0.002

BHAVNAGAR 0.000 0.003 -0.003

BEDI 0.059 0.030 0.029

DAHEJ 0.010 0.010 -0.001

DIAMOND HARBOUR 0.005 0.004 0.001

GANGAVARAM 0.103 0.043 0.059

HALDIA 0.010 0.014 -0.005

HAZIRA 0.018 0.000 0.018

JAIGAD 0.011 0.000 0.011

KAKINADA 0.026 0.027 -0.001

KANDLA 0.081 0.129 -0.048

KARAIKAL 0.006 0.005 0.000

KRISHNAPATNAM 0.082 0.049 0.033

MAGDALLA 0.007 0.070 -0.063

MANGALORE 0.022 0.034 -0.013

MORMUGAO 0.001 0.002 -0.001

MUMBAI 0.003 0.000 0.003

MUNDRA 0.039 0.028 0.010

PARADIP 0.019 0.058 -0.039

PIPAVAV 0.015 0.034 -0.019

SAGAR ROADS 0.002 0.002 0.000

SALAYA 0.000 0.046 -0.046

TUNA 0.015 0.006 0.010

TUTICORIN 0.001 0.000 0.001


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COKE TRAFFIC AT INDIAN PORTS


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Country - wise Non Coking Coal Imports to India (Qty in MT)

COUNTRIES IMPORTS

AUSTRALIA 0.657

INDONESIA 0.254

SINGAPORE 0.144

SOUTH AFRICA 0.143

CHINA 0.092

UNITED STATES 0.067

MOZAMBIQUE 0.050

EGYPT 0.043

RUSSIA 0.041

CANADA 0.035

BANGLADESH 0.020

MALAYSIA 0.011

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 0.006

UNITED KINGDOM 0.003

ROMANIA 0.003

COUNTRY-WISE COKING COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA (QTY IN MT) (APR- AUG 2020-21)

Country Apr- Aug -20-21

INDONESIA 2.653

SOUTH AFRICA 0.962

UNITED STATES 0.240

AUSTRALIA 0.233

CHINA 0.137

RUSSIA 0.105

COLOMBIA 0.089

MOZAMBIQUE 0.052

SINGAPORE 0.050

THAILAND 0.017

MEXICO 0.014

EGYPT 0.013

CANADA 0.013

U.A.E. 0.009

SOUTH KOREA 0.008


COUNTRIES IMPORTS

UNITED STATES 0.254

CHINA 0.099

SAUDI ARABIA 0.072

EGYPT 0.034

POLAND 0.013

INDONESIA 0.013

JAPAN 0.011

KUWAIT 0.009

U.A.E. 0.008

OMAN 0.007

SPAIN 0.006

COLOMBIA 0.006

BRAZIL 0.005

QATAR 0.005

MOZAMBIQUE 0.005

IMPORTERS APR-AUG 2020-21

JINDAL GROUP COS 6.485

SAIL 4.031

TATA GROUP COS 3.481

RASHTRIYA ISPAT NIGAM LTD. 0.907

AGARWAL COAL CORPN. 0.443

VEDANTA ALUMINIUM LTD. 0.393

INDIA COKE & POWER PVT. LTD. 0.361

RAWMET CO. 0.337

ELECTRO CASTING & STEEL LTD. 0.317

VISA MINMATE LTD. 0.262

TRAFIGURA INDIA PVT. LTD. 0.243

V. R. COMMODITIES 0.170

DEVENDRAN COAL INTL. PVT. LTD. 0.166

ORISSA METALIKS PVT. LTD. 0.156

BHUSHAN POWER & STEEL LTD. 0.147

COUNTRY-WISE COKE IMPORTS TO INDIA (QTY IN MT) (APR - AUG 2020-21)

TOP 15 COKING COAL IMPORTERS (QTY IN MT)


IMPORTER APR-AUG 2020-21

ADANI COAL TRDG. CORPN. 9.576

TAMILNADU ELECTRICITY BOARD 4.423

COASTAL GUJARAT POWER LTD. 3.947

SEMBCORP ENERGY INDIA LTD. 3.301

JINDAL GROUP COS. 2.835

SWISS SINGAPORE INDIA PVT. LTD. 2.218

TAMILNADU GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION CORPN. 2.196

AGARWAL COAL CORPN. 1.848

INDIA COKE & POWER PVT. LTD. 1.738

TATA GROUP COS. 1.483

NEYVELI LIGNITE CORPN. 1.321

RELIANCE INDUS. LTD. 1.168

ARCELOR MITTAL 1.121

IL & FS TAMILNADU POWER CO. LTD. 1.067

ANDHRA PRADESH POWER GENERATION CO. 0.941

IMPORTER APR- AUG 2020-21

ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD. 1.219

SHREE CEMENT LTD. 0.695

RAIN CALCINING LTD. 0.298

ARCELOR MITTAL 0.249

AMBUJA CEMENT LTD. 0.248

DALMIA CEMENTS LTD. 0.212

BIRLA CORPN. LTD. 0.161

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD. 0.161

VEDANTA ALUMINIUM LTD. 0.137

SANVIRA INDUS. LTD., 0.121

SWISS SINGAPORE INDIA PVT. LTD. 0.118

J. K. CEMENTS CO. 0.103

UTKAL ALUMINA INTL. LTD. 0.102

WONDER CEMENT LTD. 0.101

ACC LTD 0.089

TOP 15 NON COKING COAL IMPORTERS (QTY IN MT)

TOP 15 COKE IMPORTERS (QTY IN MT)

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HIGHLIGHTS

Thermal, coking coal imports at major ports dip 28% to 46 mn tonnes in Apr-Aug

01

India’s coal import drops 35% in Aug on lower demand from power, cement players

02

Power plants, consumers agree to substitute imported coal with CIL

03

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Thermal Coal Miners Seeking New Destinations as India & China Cut Imports

Asia Pacif ic's Supramax rates hit fresh 10-month high

India occupies 8th spot of total Russian coal exports globally

Coal continues to be key in India's growth story, says CIL

05 07

04 06

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Thermal coal imports dropped 25.42 per cent to 28.93 MT and coking coal shipments fell 31.87 per cent to 16.84 MT during this period. Coal volumes at these 12 major ports under the control of the Centre declined for the fifth straight month in August 2020, as per the Indian Ports Association (IPA). These ports had handled 38.79 MT of thermal coal and 24.72 MT of coking coal in the April-August period of the previous financial year. The IPA, which maintains cargo data handled by these ports, in its latest report said "percentage variation from the previous year" in thermal coal and coking coal handling was 25.42 per cent and 31.87 per cent, respectively. Together, thermal and coking coal handling saw a decline of 30.83 per cent at these ports in the April-July period at 36.7 MT. Thermal coal is the mainstay of India''s energy programme as 70 per cent of power generation is dependent on the dry fuel, while coking coal is used mainly for steel making. India is the third-largest producer of coal after China and the US, and has 299 billion tonnes of resources and 123 billion tonnes of proven reserves, which may last for over 100 years. In

the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak, sharp declines were also witnessed in handling of containers, coal and POL (petroleum, oil and lubricant) among other commodities. These ports have registered 16.56 per cent dip in cargo handling to 245.04 million tonnes (MT) between April and August this fiscal. Cargo volumes at these ports declined for the fifth straight month in August 2020 and all ports barring Mormugao saw a negative growth. These 12 ports had together handled 293.67 MT of cargo during April-August 2018-19. Ports like Chennai, Cochin and Kamrajar saw their cargo volumes nosedive about 30 per cent during April-August, while JNPT and Kolkata suffered a drop of over 20 per cent. India has 12 major ports under the control of the central government -- Deendayal (erstwhile Kandla), Mumbai, JNPT, Mormugao, New Mangalore, Cochin, Chennai, Kamarajar (earlier Ennore), V O Chidambarnar, Visakhapatnam, Paradip and Kolkata (including Haldia). These ports handle about 61 per cent of the country''s total cargo traffic. These ports handled 705 MT of cargo last fiscal.

Source: Outlook India

Thermal, coking coal imports at major ports dip 28% to 46 mn tonnes in Apr-Aug01

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Hit by coronavirus-related disruptions, both thermal and coking coal imports at India''s 12 major ports dipped 27.93 per cent to 45.77 million tonnes (MT) in April-August 2020 over the same period a year ago, according to the apex ports'' body IPA.

“

“


Power plants, consumers agree to substitute imported coal with CIL03Power plants located in the southern part of the country and non-regulated sector (NRS) consumers, including steel and cement, of Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd (MCL) have agreed to substitute imported coal with the dry-fuel produced by the Coal India subsidiary. The development assumes significance in the wake of the government's thrust on reducing coal import dependency of the

country under the 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' initiative. Southern India power plants and NRS consumers, who are importing coal at present, have been approached based on the logic that MCL's coal is quite comparable with imported coal as per Gross Calorific Value land cost analysis, the Coal India (CIL) arm said in a report. "They have agreed for import substitution with MCL coal," it

Source: Financial Express

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Coal India (CIL), which accounts for over 80 per cent of domestic coal output, has been mandated by the government to replace at least 100 million tonnes of imports with domestically-produced coal in the ongoing fiscal.

“

“

India’s coal import drops 35% in Aug on lower demand from power, cement players02India’s coal import declined by 34.9 per cent to 12.46 million tonnes (MT) in August on account of subdued demand for the dry fuel from consuming sectors like power and cement. The country imported 19.14 MT of coal in August last year, according to provisional compilation by mjunction, based on monitoring of vessels’ positions and data received from shipping companies. mjunction, a joint venture between Tata Steel and SAIL, is a B2B e-commerce company that also publishes research reports on coal and steel verticals. Also, the first five months of the current fiscal saw 32.51 per cent decline in coal import at 73.08 MT, over 108.29 MT during the year-ago period, it said. “Although there has been a modest recovery in coal-consuming sectors such as power and cement, coal stock continues to be ample and hence

import demand subdued. If we go by the current trend, coal imports may see a significant decline this year,” it said. Of the total imports in August, non-coking coal’s shipment was at 8.87 MT and coking coal at 2.18 MT. Coal India (CIL), which accounts for over 80 per cent of domestic coal output, has been mandated by the government to replace at least 100 million tonnes of imports with domestically-produced coal in the ongoing fiscal. To boost coal demand, the government has announced a slew of measures like increased supply for linkage consumers. The Centre had also announced several relief measures for CIL consumers, including the power sector. The country imported 247.1 MT of coal in 2019-20, about five per cent higher than 235.35 MT imported during 2018-19.

The coal procured under the "special spot e-auction scheme 2020 for import substitution" will be for use within the country.

“ 03


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The development assumes significance in the wake of the government''s thrust on reducing coal import dependency of the country under the ''Aatmanirbhar Bharat'' initiative.

“Source: Business Standard

said. Also in near future, the vehicles being run on diesel and petrol will be replaced by electric-driven vehicles and this will significantly reduce the requirement of importing oil and save a lot of forex, it said. CIL has also introduced a new category of spot e-auction for importers only and aimed at replacing 150 million tonnes of fuel sourced from abroad with domestic supply. The coal procured under the "special spot e-auction scheme 2020 for import substitution" will be for use within the country. "This move is in a bid to attain the governments thrust on reducing coal import dependency of the country under the Aatmanirbhar plan. Coal imports of 150 million tonne can be replaced with this new scheme," a Coal India official had said. The

new programme is an addition to its existing four categories of e-auctions. CIL has taken up a new marketing strategy to substitute imported coal with more domestic supplies, the official had said. The Maharatna PSU has identified domestic coal-based power plants and manufacturers of sponge iron, cement, fertilisers, steel and others, who are importing coal, as its potential customers. These segments of customers had imported around 150 million tonne of coal during the last fiscal, he had said. Indian buyers including traders who imported coal at any point of time in the current fiscal or in the previous two financial years are eligible for participating in this new version of e-auction.

03

Russia, rich in key natural resources, has exported 7.5 million tons to India (642.1 million US dollars), which is 3.7% of total Russian coal eports in 2019. According to the UN Comtrade Database, at the end of 2019, Russia exported 205.3 million tons of coal — 180.9 million tons of energy coal (88% of total exports) and anthracite 24.4 million tons (12%). As much as 7.5 million tons were exported to India (642.1 million US dollars), which is 3.7% of total Russian coal exports and 8th place among the recipient countries of russian coal (after China, South Korea, Germany,

Japan, Netherlands, Poland, Turkey). The volume of anthracite exports to India amounted to 1.8 million tons (165.6 million US dollars), which is 7.4% of the total anthracite exports from Russia and 5th among recipient countries according to Anton Beloglazov, expert of Russia’s leading think-tank, Center for Strategic Research or CSR. Compared to 2018, the volume of coal russian exports increased by 2.9% (energy plus 3.8%, metallurgical minus 2.6%). Coal exports to India as a whole increased by 74.5% (or 3.2 million tons). Only Germany (+7.4 million tonnes), China

India occupies 8th spot of total Russian coal exports globally04


According to the UN Comtrade

Database, at the end of

2019, Russia exported 205.3 million tons of

coal — 180.9 million tons

of energy coal (88% of total exports) and

anthracite 24.4 million tons

(12%).

03

(+ 4.1 million tonnes), Vietnam (+3.3 million tonnes) have a larger increase in absolute terms. At the same time, in terms of the volume of export of anthracite from Russia, India is the absolute leader: an increase of 120.2% or 989.9 thousand tons This growth was facilitated by an increase in steel production in India by 4.4% [from 106.5 million tons to 111.2 million tons (2nd place in the world after China) - according to the World Steel Association]. In the period January-July 2020, steel production in India decreased by 24.3% (from 66.4 to 50.2 million tons) compared to the same period last year, which was associated with the expansion of COVID-19 in the world. GDP in the second quarter decreased by 19.9% on an annualized basis, the industrial production index in the second quarter of 2020 in India was 77.3% (before COVID-19 in the fourth quarter of 2019 130.8%). The Indian government plans to invest about $ 700 million by 2030 in railway infrastructure, including to eliminate bottlenecks in the railway

corridor connecting New Delhi with India's largest container port in Navi, Mumbai. Such actions support the steel industry. At the end of 2019, India's total nominal capacity was 129.1 million tonnes [43.8% for basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and 56.2% for electric arc furnaces (EAF)]. The total volume of coal consumption for steel production in 2019 was 54 million tons (based on the calculation of 770 kg and 150 kg of coal for the production of 1 ton of steel under the BOF and EAF – data from the Word Coal Association.) 13 million tons of additional capacities (BOF) are under construction with start until 2022 (NMDC 3 million tons, JSW Holdings 5 million tons, Tata Steel NSE -2.78 % 5 million tons), which can provide an increase in coal consumption by 10 million tons. If the plan for the production of 300 million tons by 2030 is implemented, as stated by the Minister of Natural Gas and Steel of India, the consumption of coal by the steel industry could grow to 146 million tons (+92 million tons).

05

Source: Economic Times

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While lower coal imports is good news for the Indian government, which has been looking to cut down imports of the fuel, lower shipments will hit miners in Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. The world’s largest thermal-coal exporter Indonesia is eyeing new markets as its largest export destinations threaten to cut imports. Indonesia is targeting Bangladesh,

Pakistan and Vietnam as China and India seek to curb thermal coal imports into the long term. As a result, Australian and South African thermal coal exporters aren’t going to have it all their own way in seeking increased deliveries to markets such as Vietnam. Furthermore, it looks increasingly like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan are going to disappoint

Thermal Coal Miners Seeking New Destinations as India & China Cut Imports05


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those hoping for more demand growth from these countries. Other established coal export destinations are also likely to reduce imports in the long term. South Korea has been the third-largest thermal-coal export

destination for Australia, Indonesia and South Africa. However, this month President Moon Jae-in announced that 30 coal-fired power plants will be closed by 2034 and wind and solar capacity tripled by 2025.

Coal continues to be a key in India's growth story as solar power is not as economical as coal-fired electricity till affordable storage of power comes in a major way, CIL has said. The company's argument came in the wake of a debate on the viability of coal-fired power, when solar energy is gaining momentum as it is environment friendly and considered economical. It can be seen from a typical load curve in India that peak demand is post-5 pm and coal-based power caters to that load, Coal India Limited (CIL) Chairman Pramod Agarwal said in a recent presentation to investors. Coal-based electricity will continue to do so till affordable storage of power comes in a major scale, he said. "The effective cost of renewable energy is still high due

to the intermittency versus variable cost of thermal power. As fixed cost is already incurred and is sunk, better comparison is to look at fuel cost," he said. The effective price of solar power is Rs 4-4.5 per kilowatt-hour which includes production cost, duties and trading margin, while the "variable" cost for thermal power is Rs 2-3 per kilowatt-hour, Agarwal said. CIL remained optimistic about the future of the dry fuel and said that its 110 ongoing projects with peak capacity of 750 million tonne are under implementation. Altogether 18 mining projects that have been cleared by CIL in FY20 have a rated capacity of 132.04 million tonne a year and sanctioned capex of Rs 21,245 crore.

Coal continues to be key in India's growth story, says CIL

06

Source: STEELGURU

Source: ET Energy Times

It can be seen from a typical load curve in India that peak demand is post-5 pm and coal-based power caters to that load, Coal India Limited (CIL) Chairman Pramod Agarwal said in a recent presentation to investors.

“

“India’s imports of thermal coal

fell by 41.5% to 32.9 million tonnes during

April-June quarter while

imports of coking coal fell by 28.6% to 9.71 million tonnes as coronavirus

lockdowns battered demand.

0506


Asia Pacific's Supramax rates hit fresh 10-month high

India's increasing

coal imports tighten the tonnage in

the Pacific Q4 grain demand

seen further supporting

Supramaxes

Supramax time charter equivalent rates for voyages across the Asia Pacific have hit brand new highs since these assessments were first launched in November 2019, Platts data showed, spurred by an increase in demand for the shipping of Indonesian coal to India. A slew of thermal coal cargoes from Indonesia for loading during September helped tighten tonnage supply and has resulted in higher TCE rates, market participants said. "I am not surprised. It should climb higher," a shipping analyst said, adding that the expected healthy demand for grain cargoes in Q4 would lend further support to the Supramax segment. Platts had assessed the TCE for a Supramax vessels opening in Singapore for a trip via South Kalimantan to west coast India with coal averaged at $9,303/d over September, 15.41% higher from the August average of $8,060/d. India's monthly coal imports improving Market analysts tracking the movement of Indonesian coal have estimated that almost 50% of Indonesia's September export volumes were destined for India. Despite coal-fired power generation in India recovering to within a margin of the 2019 power generation since July, and even higher in September, thermal coal imports from India stood at 11.46 million mt in August, 13.34% lower on the year, but 6.84% higher month on month, according to data by coal trading house Iman

Resources. The September data has yet to be released, but overall market sentiment suggests that seaborne coal imports had been firm during the month. According to data from India's Central Electricity Authority, the stockpiles of thermal coal at power stations on Sept. 27, were sufficient for 19 days of coal burn, down two days from Aug. 31.

Trips to China elicit a premiumWhile China's appetite for thermal coal is lower than that of 2019, cargoes heading to China have had to pay a premium on a TCE basis when compared with trips to India. Shipowners have cited lower returns for trips out of China after their ships end their voyages on Chinese shores as a reason for charging a premium compared with a voyage to India to deliver coal, where they are able to command higher rates for hauling iron ore back to China. Meanwhile, India's east coast faced logistical challenges during most of September owing to the monsoon, which resulted in fewer iron ore cargoes. But market sources expect activity to return once the monsoon relents and on the back of firmer iron ore prices. TCE for a Supramax vessel opening in South China for a trip via East Kalimantan to south China with coal averaged at $8,490/d over September, up 23.42% from the August average of $6,879/d, Platts data showed.

05

Source: SPGlobal

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07


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Monthly O Coal C T Update 20 · country-wise coking coal imports to india (qty in mt) (apr- aug...

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Transcript of Monthly O Coal C T Update 20 · country-wise coking coal imports to india (qty in mt) (apr- aug...