Monthly Food Price Report - Food prices in Latin … · Monthly Food Price rePort / May 2014 4...

During April, the monthly food inflation rate of Latin America and the Caribbean reached 0.9%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points when compared to March. Headline inflation fell from 1% in March, to 0.7% in April.

In Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean, El Salvador, Mexico and the Dominican Republic saw drops in their monthly headline and food inflation, when compared to March. The contrary was true for Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama. In Guatemala inflation remained stable, while in Honduras food inflation increased while headline inflation fell.

In South America, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay’s food and headline inflation fell during April, while in Bolivia and Colombia inflation remained at similar levels when compared to March. Chile and Peru’ food inflation increased while headline inflation in both countries dropped.

During April, potatoes, fruits and meats (beef and pork), had a positive effect in the food inflation of several countries, while tomatoes and onions had a negative effect on prices.

In April, the FAO international food price index reached 209.3 points, a 1.6% drop when compared to March, accumulating a year-on-year variation of -3.5%. This drop was due to a reduction in dairy prices (-6.3%), and in sugar prices (-1.6%), as well as vegetable oils (-2.8%). The price of cereals and meats increased slightly.

·

·

·

KEy MESSAgES

InflaTIon reporT In laTIn aMerIca and The carIbbean 02MaIn foods affecTInG MonThly InflaTIon In lac counTrIes 06InTernaTIonal food prIces 08appendIx 09Glossary 09

Index page

··

MAY

, 201

4

This document provides a monthly overview of food prices in Latin America and the Caribbean. Monitoring official country information, the report seeks to warn about potential impacts that the increase in food prices may have on the welfare of the poorest and most vulnerable households in the region, since they spend the greatest proportion of their income on food. Adequate monitoring of food prices is, in this sense, a key aspect to food and nutritional security in the region.

MonthlY Food Price rePort

FOOD PRICES IN LAtIN AMERICA AND tHE CARIBBEANfao regional office for latin america and the caribbean

© u

bira

jara

Mac

hado

/Md

s, b

razi

l.

2Monthly Food Price rePort / May 2014

Inflation report in latin america and the caribbean1

during April, food prices in latin America and the caribbean varied 0.9%, a 0.6 percentage point reduction when compared to March.

Much in the same way, headline inflation fell when compared to the previous month, falling from 1% in March to 0.7% in April.

year-on-year InflaTIon

Year-on-year food inflation varied 10.9% in April, a 0.3 percentage point drop when compared to March. Headline year-on-year inflation increased slightly, from 9.6% in March to 8.7% in April.

Monthly inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010-2014 Monthly % variation

Food

headline

* / Average of 10 LAC countries representing close to 95 % of regional GDP. Source: Based on official country information.

Figu

re 1

1. By the date of publication of this report, data for Venezuela (RB) was not yet available. Unlike the information from previous months, LAC inflation considered the average monthly variation of Venezuela (RB) considering the last three months with available data.


Monthly

headline Food headline Food

Argentina 1.8 1.1 … …

Bolivia, PS 0.2 -0.1 6.2 9.8

Brazil 0.7 1.2 6.3 7.4

chile 0.6 0.9 4.3 6.4

colombia 0.5 0.7 2.7 2.4

costa rica 1.1 1.3 3.7 2.3

ecuador 0.3 0.6 3.2 4.3

El Salvador -0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.6

Guatemala 0.2 0.2 3.3 6.1

honduras 0.4 0.5 6.0 5.3

Mexico -0.2 -0.2 3.5 2.5

nicaragua 0.4 0.8 4.9 4.4

Panama 0.5 0.9 3.5 5.1

Paraguay 0.4 0.7 6.4 9.6

Peru 0.4 0.8 3.7 3.5

dom. rep. 0.4 0.9 3.5 3.5

Uruguay -0.1 0.0 9.2 10.0

lAc* 0.7 0.9 9.7 10.9

Monthly and annual inflation in LAC countries, April 2014

* / Average of 10 LAC countries representing close to 95 % of regional GDP. Source: Based on official country information.

Annual

Percentages

Tabl

e 1

© f

ao, n

icar

agua

.


Monthly inflation in latin america and the caribbean

Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean

El Salvador, Mexico and the Dominican Republic saw reductions in their monthly food and headline inflation, while the contrary was true for Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama. Both headline and food inflation in Guatemala remained stable while in Honduras food inflation increased while headline inflation fell.

In El Salvador and Mexico both headline and food inflation had negative values during April. Mexico has a -0.2% variation in both indexes, while El Salvador had a -0.2% variation in food inflation and a -0.5% variation in headline inflation.

Food inflation in the Dominican Republic fell from 1.3% in March to 0.9% in April, while headline inflation reached 0.4%, with a 0.1 percentage point drop. In Honduras, food inflation reached 0.5%, a 0.1 percentage point increase with respect to March, while headline inflation fell from 0.6% to 0.4%.

During April, Guatemala’s food and headline inflation went from having negative values to positive ones in April, with 0.8% food inflation and 0.4% headline inflation. In Costa Rica, food inflation in-creased from 0.2% in March to 1.3% in April, while in Panama it increased by 0.4 percentage points, to 0.9%, when compared to March.

Monthly inflation in Central America, Mexico and the CaribbeanPercentages

Figu

re 2

Source: Based on official country information.

Food

headline


Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay had reductions in both their food and headline infla-tion. In Bolivia and Bolivia both headline and food inflation remained at levels similar to March, while in Chile and Peru had increases in their food inflation and reductions in headline inflation.

During April, Argentina and Uruguay showed the greatest reductions in food inflation, with variations of 1.1% and 0%, respectively, in both cases, their reductions in food inflation exceeded one percen-tage point.

Brazil, Ecuador and Paraguay also had reductions in their food inflation, with variations in 1.2%, 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. In Bolivia, for the second month in a row, there was a drop in food prices, with a variation of -0.1%.

In Chile and Colombia there were small increases in food inflation, with variations of 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. In both cases this meant an increase of 0.1 percentage points, while in Peru , food infla-tion reached 0.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points.

South America

Annual inflation in South AmericaPercentages

Food

headline

Figu

re 3


2. For this report, the information for Peru corresponds to the Nationwide Consumer Price Index, unlike previous months when the consumer Price index was reported for Metropolitan lima.


Main foods affecting monthly inflation in lac countries

During April, potatoes, fruits and meats (beef and pork) had widespread positive effect on food infla-tion in the region. According to the latest inflation reports from countries, fruit prices have increased for two month in a row. Tomatoes and onions, on the other hand, had a negative effect on prices.

In the case of potatoes, hikes were observed in Bolivia, Colombia and Costa Rica, with variations of 2.69%, 25.91% and 7.49%, respectively. Potato prices fell by 9.92% in Nicaragua, 6.48% in the Do-minican republic, and by 2.6% in chile.

Fruits, for the third consecutive month, were one of the foods with widespread price hikes in the region. During April, fruit prices had a positive effect in Guatemala, with a 33.18% increase in their prices, an 11.34% increase in the Dominican Republic, and a 3.68% increase in Colombia (other fresh fruits). On the contrary, their prices fell in Argentina by 0.8% (fresh fruits).

Beef prices increase in Bolivia (beef with bone) by 1.81% and by 1.55% in Mexico. Pork prices in-creased by 2.98% in Mexico, while chicken meat had a negative incidence in prices in Bolivia, with its prices dropping by 2.34% and pork prices in Chile fell by 2.3%.

Tomato prices fell in Bolivia, Nicaragua and Guatemala, with reductions of 12.71%, 18.02% and 19.13%, respectively, being the food with the greatest negative effect in inflation in all three coun-tries. In Chile, tomato prices increased by 10.1%, while in Mexico tomatoes increased by 30.3%, being the product with the greatest positive effect in inflation.

Onion prices fell in Mexico (by 31.33%), Nicaragua (14.05%) and the Dominican Republic (4.28%), and increased in Colombia (18.48%) and Bolivia (9.39%).

During April, sour lemon prices had a positive incidence on the Dominican Republic’s inflation, with an increase of 8.41%, while the contrary was true for Uruguay, where they had a negative variation of 17.97% and by 39.2% in Mexico.

Oranges had a negative incidence in the inflation of Bolivia, their prices fell by 10.23%. Egg prices fell by 3.16% in Costa Rica, and fresh and frozen fruit prices fell by 0.6% in Argentina.

© f

ao, h

ondu

ras.




Tabl

e 2

Products with the greatest impact on overall inflation in LAC countries April 2014

CountryPositive Effect Negative Effect

Product Variation (%) Effect(% Points) Product Variation (%) Effect

(% Points)

Bolivia

onions 9.39 0.08 tomatoes -12.71 -0.22

Potatoes 2.6 0.06 oranges -10.23 -0.05

Beef with bone 1.81 0.06 Chicken meat – whole -2.34 -0.04

chile

Bread 2.3 0.047 Potatoes -2.6 -0.011

tomatoes 10.1 0.032 Pork -2.3 -0.011

oranges 15.1 0.019 lettuce -4.7 -0.01

colombia

Potatoes 25.91 0.12 other vegetables and fresh legumes -2.95 -0.01

other fresh fruits 3.68 0.03

onions 18.48 0.03

costa rica

Potatoes 7.49 0.031 eggs -3.16 -0.019

Salted bread 2.25 0.031 canned tuna -1.3 -0.01

coriander -7.21 -0.009

Guatemala

Seasonal fruits 33.18 0.14 tomatoes -19.13 -0.15

Mexico

red tomatoes 30.3 0.068 lemons -39.2 -0.11

Beef 1.55 0.033 onions -37.33 -0.104

Pork 2.98 0.021 Bananas -11.31 -0.022

nicaragua

Beans 20.31 0.1704 tomatoes -18.02 -0.994

cheese 7.1 0.1594 onions -14.05 -0.0648

Curd (Cuajada) 6.54 0.0416 Potatoes -9.92 -0.0452

CountryPositive Negative

Product Variation (%) Product Variation (%)

Argentina

Fresh and frozen fish 9.00 Fresh fruits -0.8

Margarine and grease 3.70 Fresh and frozen vegetables

-0.6

Caffe 3

dominican republic

Seasonal fruits 11.34 chili -9.77

Avocadoes 9.18 Potatoes -6.48

limes 8.41 onions -4.28

Uruguay

Bananas 6.28 Zucchinis -19.38

Skimmed milk 5.95 lettuce -19.73

Whole milk 5.66 lemons -17.97

Tabl

e 3

Monthly price variation in selected food in LAC countries, April 2014


International food pricesThe FAO international Food Price Index reached 209.3 points in April, a drop of 1.6% with regard to March and a 3.5% negative variation with respect to the same month of the past year. This drop was due to the reduction of dairy prices, and also sugar and vegetable oils, to a lesser degree. on the con-trary, cereal prices and meat prices increased slightly.

During April, dairy prices fell by 6.3%, largely due to lower purchases from China and an increase in the global offer destined from export. Vegetable oil prices also fell by 2.8% due to the change in prices of palm oil, while sugar prices fell by 1.6% due to greater expected availability from the main productive regions, such as thailand, india and Australia.

on the contrary, the price of meats increased slightly, by 0.4%, responding to preoccupations of the impact of a virus affecting pigs in the United States. Cereal prices increased by 0.5%, a deceleration of their international food prices when compared to the first months of 2013, due to improved weather conditions in the United States and the fact that exports from Ukraine where not affected by the ten-sions in the region.

year-on-year price variations where negative for all food groups with the exception of vegetable oils, which increased by 2.5% when compared to April 2013. Cereals had a year-on-year variation of -10.3%, dairy prices varied -2.8%, sugar prices by -1% and meat prices varied -0.5%, during the same period

FAO monthly index for food prices level and variation %

FAO monthly index for food prices, by large groups

Base 2002-2004 = 100

Source: FAO

Figu

re 4

figu

re 5

Index (left axis)Variation %

Source: FAO


country

Food inflation Headline inflation

Annual % variation Monthly % variation Annual % variation Monthly % variation

2011 2012 2013 apr.2014

feb.2014

mar.2014

apr.2014 2011 2012 2013 apr.

2014feb.

2014mar.

2014apr.

2014

Argentina 7.6 9.9 9.3 … 4.0 2.4 1.1 9.5 10.8 10.9 … 3.4 2.6 1.8

Bolivia, P,S 6.9 5.6 10.4 9.8 1.4 -0.1 -0.1 6.9 4.5 6.5 6.2 0.8 0.2 0.2

Brazil 7.2 9.9 8.5 7.4 0.6 1.9 1.2 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.3 0.7 0.9 0.7

chile 8.6 4.7 4.9 6.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 4.4 1.5 3.0 4.3 0.5 0.8 0.6

colombia 5.3 2.5 0.8 2.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 3.7 2.4 1.9 2.7 0.6 0.4 0.5

costa rica 4.1 1.2 3.3 2.3 -0.7 0.2 1.3 4.7 4.6 3.7 3.7 0.7 0.6 1.1

ecuador 6.8 5.0 1.9 4.3 -0.4 1.5 0.6 5.4 4.2 2.7 3.2 0.1 0.7 0.3

El Salvador 3.2 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.2 5.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 -0.5

Guatemala … 6.0 8.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 6.1 6.2 3.4 4.4 3.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

haiti 9.0 8.8 2.9 … 0.3 0.7 … 8.3 7.6 3.4 … 0.3 0.6 …

honduras 3.1 3.8 4.9 5.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 5.6 5.4 4.9 6.0 0.8 0.6 0.4

Jamaica 5.5 14.3 7.9 … 0.2 0.4 … 6.0 8.0 9.7 … 0.0 1.1 …

Mexico 5.8 7.5 4.0 2.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.5 0.3 0.3 -0.2

nicaragua 9.2 8.1 6.0 4.4 -0.1 -0.5 0.8 8.0 6.6 5.7 4.9 0.7 0.0 0.4

Panama 7.5 7.2 4.6 5.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 6.3 4.6 3.7 3.5 0.5 0.4 0.5

Paraguay 3.9 0.7 6.7 9.6 0.4 1.2 0.7 4.9 4.0 3.7 6.4 0.7 0.5 0.4

Peru 8.0 4.1 2.2 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.8 4.7 2.6 2.9 3.7 0.6 0.5 0.4

dom. rep. 9.7 6.3 1.6 3.5 -0.3 1.3 0.9 7.8 3.9 3.9 3.5 0.3 0.5 0.4

trinidad and tobago 10.9 12.7 10.2 … 2.7 1.8 … 5.3 7.2 5.6 … 1.3 0.9 …

Uruguay 8.7 10.8 9.0 10.0 2.5 1.4 0.0 8.6 7.5 8.5 9.2 1.7 0.6 -0.1

Venezuela, B.R. 33.6 23.7 73.9 … 1.7 6.1 … 27.6 20.1 56.2 … 2.4 4.1 …

lAca 8.5 8.9 10.3 10.9b 0.8 1.5 0.9b 7.0 6.0 8.5 9.7b 0.9 1.5 0.7b

Source: FAO Regional Office using official country information. ... / No available information. a / Refers to the weighted average of ten countries that represent 95% of regional GDP. The countries included are: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela RB. b/ Preliminary Figure.

AnnexRates of food and headline inflation in selected LAC countriesPercentages

glossaryEffect or contribution to variation of the Consumer Price Index: effect of each of the goods and services on the variation of the overall price index. This effect depends on the magnitude of the change in price and the weight of the good or service being analyzed. The total sum of each of these effects is equal to the variation of the cpI for the reference period.

Consumer Price Index (CPI): an index that measures changes in prices of goods and services acquired or used by households. The total set of goods and services covered by the cpI can be divided into groups such as “food and beverages.” This index is usually monthly produced and published by the national statistical institute of the respective countries.

FAO food price index: an index that measures monthly change in international prices of a basket of goods. It consists in the average price indices of five groups of commodities (which include more than 55 series of nominal prices), weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002- 2004. http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Inflation: sustained and widespread increase in the price level of an economy, often measured through the consumer price Index. The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index in a given period.

Accumulated inflation: the percentage change in the price index between the reference month and december of the previous year. This variation can be calculated for the cpI and for each of its divisions.

year-on-year inflation: the percentage change in the price index over a period of twelve months. by convention, the change between the months of december of two successive years is known as annual inflation, while for the rest of the months is called year-on-year inflation. This variation can be calculated for the general price level (using the cpI) or for each of the divisions of the cpI (eg, food, clothing, transportation, housing, etc.).

Monthly inflation: the percentage change in the price index between two successive months. This variation can be calculated for the cpI or for each of its divisions.

© FAO, 2014

Monthly Food Price Report - Food prices in Latin … · Monthly Food Price rePort / May 2014 4...

Documents

Transcript of Monthly Food Price Report - Food prices in Latin … · Monthly Food Price rePort / May 2014 4...