MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main...

29
MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEW June 2013 Economic Research and Strategy Division

Transcript of MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main...

Page 1: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEW

June 2013

Economic Research and Strategy Division

Page 2: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

2

Disclaimer

The data and information herein contained should not be considered as any advisory service, recommendation or

suggestion on the part of the Bancolombia Group with regard to any investment decision or any type of transaction

or business to be carried out and therefore any use of such information shall be the sole responsibility of the user.

The figures, interest rates and other data herein contained are for informative purposes only and do not constitute

any type of offer or firm demand for any transaction that may be performed in connection with such.

Page 3: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

3

Main highlights

Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in the coming quarters. Colombia grew 4.0% in 2012, and we revised upwards our forecast for 2013 to 4.2%.

Colombian economic slowdown has been caused by a combination of both external and internal

factors.

Prices are close to the lower bound of Central Bank’s target range. We expect inflation to close at 2.6% this year.

We revised upwards our USDCOP rate forecast, because of the uncertainty caused by the potential changes in mandatory pension funds regulation that would increase their investments in foreign assets, as well as the global uncertainty, the daily purchases of USD by the Central Bank and an increase in current account deficit for 2013.

In May, the COLCAP completed four months of drops adjusting a decrease of 9.1% YTD. The volume last month was $220 billion, over its daily average ($179 billion). In addition, we expect a lateral trend in the stock market for the next month, given the absence of catalysts that could give direction to the market in the short term.

Page 4: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

CONTENTS

1. Economic Overview

Global and Latin American Economies

Colombian Economy

2. Market Overview

Fixed Income and FX

Equities

3. Economic Summary and Market Recommendations

Page 5: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

CHAPTER 1: ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

i. Global Economic Outlook

ii. Latin America Economic Trends

iii. Colombia Economic Trends

Real activity and external leading indicators

Financial sector

Fiscal accounts

Page 6: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

The IMF is forecasting a slower world GDP growth, from 3.5% to 3.3% in 2013

Source: World Economic Outlook – International Monetary Fund

Oil price: WTI, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank

GDP growth forecast (IMF - April 2013)

6

FMI - Abr 2013 Diferencia

2013 2014 2013 2014

World Output 3,3% 4,0% -0,2% -0,1%

Advanced Economies 1,2% 2,2% -0,2% 0,0%

United States 1,9% 3,0% -0,1% 0,0%

Euro Area -0,3% 1,1% -0,1% 0,1%

Germany 0,6% 1,5% 0,0% 0,1%

Italy -1,5% 0,5% -0,5% 0,0%

Spain -1,6% 0,7% -0,1% -0,1%

Japan 1,6% 1,4% 0,4% 0,7%

Emerging and Developing

5,3% 5,7% -0,2% -0,2%

China 8,0% 8,2% -0,2% -0,3%

India 5,7% 6,2% -0,2% -0,2%

LatAm and the Caribbean 3,4% 3,9% -0,2% 0,0%

Colombia 4,1% 4,5% -0,3%

WTI USD/bbl 94,00 98,00 -2,25 -5,25

Page 7: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

7

LATAM GDP growth (% oya) LATAM GDP growth and leading indicator (% oya)

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB) based on INEI; IBEGI, IBGE, Central Bank of Chile. *

Grupo Bancolombia’s GDP estimate

Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in the coming quarters

0,8

1,8

1,9

3,0

4,0

4,8

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0

Mexico

Inv. Grade

Brasil

Colombia*

Chile

Peru

5,5

11,4

14,7

-11,1

7,5

5,5

0,9

9,6

1,0

8,2

4,0

5,9

7,1

0,7

6,2

2,1

1,6

3,0

-5,7

7,4

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Households consumption

Government consumption

Investment

Exports

Imports

Brazil

Colombia*

Chile

Peru

Page 8: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

8

LATAM remains an attractive region to invest despite an uncertain global backdrop

Source: ECLAC “La Inversión Extranjera

Directa en América Latina y el Caribe” 2012

Latam's share in global FDI flows (%)

Net FDI inflows by country between 2010-13 (USD bn)

6

87

910

13

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

66,7

19,422,9

13,48,2

9,8 8,3

65,2

12,6

30,3

15,812,2 12,5

8,8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Bra

zil

Me

xico

Ch

ile

Co

lom

bia

Pe

ru

Arg

en

tin

a

Ce

ntr

al

Am

.

2010

2011

2012

Page 9: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

9

Leading indicators suggest moderation in economic activity at the start of 2013

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), DANE

Leading Indicators – Colombian Real Economic Activity

Positive but lower than a period ago

Much more negative than a period ago

Better than a period ago

Date Value

GDP YoY 4Q12 3.1 2.7 6.6

Household consumption YoY 4Q12 4.0 3.9 5.4

Investment YoY 4Q12 3.0 1.0 18.9

Inflation YoY May 2.00 2.02 3.44

Urban unemployment Rate April 10.7 11.6 11.4

Job creation / Losses Thousands April 151 179 368

Exports YoY April -1.2 -20.0 3.9

Traditional YoY April -11.3 -24.0 7.5

Non traditional YoY April 27.2 -9.5 -5.2

Imports YoY March -10.3 -0.7 7.7

Consumption YoY March -6.0 3.3 14.3

Capital Goods YoY March -6.7 1.9 -9.6

Consumer confidence Index April 23.7 14.8 26.6

Energy demand YoY May 2.60 8.08 3.66

Industrial production YoY March -11.5 -4.6 -0.6

Retail sales YoY March 0.9 0.6 6.8

Vehicles sales Units April 25,772 23,551 24,941

Indicator UnitLatest data A period

agoA year ago A period ago A year ago

Page 10: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

10

We revised our growth forecast from 4.0% to 4.2%, given the impact of the PIPE impact and a stronger

moderation in external sector

Annual GDP Growth– Demand Side

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), DANE

The “PIPE” is the plan to boost productivity and employment

4.0

8.0

4.4 4.3

5.15.7

5.3

4.0

8.7

4.3 4.3 4.2

8.0

4.54.2

5.8

4.3 4.2

5.1

8.4

2.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

GDP Imports Final consumption Household Government Gross capital

formation

Exports

2012

2013 Previous Forecast

2013

Page 11: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

Annual GDP Growth – Supply Side

We expect construction and services to be the best performing sectors in 2013

So

urc

e:

Gru

po B

ancolo

mbia

(G

B),

Dane

11

2.3%

4.7%

2.0%

3.7%

5.6%

3.9%

4.2%

5.1%

4.7%

4.4%

4.2%

1.9%

4.7%

2.0%

3.7%

5.3%

3.8%

4.2%

5.0%

4.3%

4.4%

4.0%

2.6%

5.9%

-0.7%

3.5%

3.6%

4.1%

4.0%

5.5%

4.9%

4.7%

4.0%

Agriculture (6%)

Mining (8%)

Industry (13%)

Energy, Gas, Water (4%)

Construction (6%)

Retail (12%)

Transport and comunications (7%)

Financial services (19%)

Non-financial services (15%)

Taxes (10%)

GDP (100%)

2012 2013 Previous Forecast 2013

Page 12: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

12

So

urc

e:

Gru

po B

ancolo

mbia

(G

B),

Dane, M

inis

terio d

e D

efe

nsa

Due to lower tax collection, we expect Central Government’s

deficit to reach 2.7% of GDP in 2013

General Government Balance as % of GDP

M.M. $ % GDP M.M. $ % GDP M.M. $ % GDP M.M. $ % GDP

Total income 94,247 15.3% 107,067 16.1% 117,582 16.3% 116,481 16.6%

Total expenses 111,754 18.1% 122,507 18.5% 135,247 18.7% 135,247 19.3%

Central Government

Balance-17,507 -2.9% -15,440 -2.3% -17,665 -2.4% -18,766 -2.7%

Non Financial Public Sector -11,318 -1.8% 2,989 0.46% -7,118 -1.0% -8,219 -1.2%

Combined Public Sector -12,585 -2.0% 1,826 0.3% -7,276 -1.0% -8,382 -1.2%

(F) Forecast

2012 2013 (F)

Ministry of Finance

2013 (F) 2011

Page 13: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

13

The external sector could contribute less to GDP growth in 2013

Trade Balance (USD millions)

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), DANE

Rubro 20122012

(Crec.%)2013 py

2013 py

(Crec.%)

2013 py ant

(Crec %)

ExportacionesTotales 60,272 5.9% 61,201 2% 10%

Tradicionales 42,303 5.1% 42,499 0.5% 7%

Café 1,910 -26.8% 1,925 1% -7%

Petróleo 31,642 11.3% 33,296 5% 9%

Carbón 7,805 -7.0% 6,402 -18% 0%

Ferroniquel 881 6.6% 877 -1% 4%

No tradicionales 17,970 7.8% 18,702 4% 16%

Importaciones CIF 58,601 7.1% 63,684 9% 10%

Importaciones FOB 55,207 7.1% 59,733 8% 10%

Balanza Comercial 5,066 -5.5% 1,469 -71% 10%

Concept

Total Exports

Traditional

Coffee

Oil

Coal

Nickel

Non traditional

Imports CIF

Imports FOB

Trade Balance

2012

2012 (f)

(YoY%) 2013(f)

2013 (f)

(YoY%)

2013 (Prior

forecast)

(YoY%)

2020 (f)

(YoY%)

Page 14: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

Loan growth rates (% oya)

Consistent with overall economic activity, credit growth is moderating

NPL Ratio

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), Superfinanciera 14

12,73%

11,33%

12,99%

11,11%

16,98%

-14%

-4%

6%

16%

26%

36%

46%

56%

66%

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

Total Commercial Consumption

Mortgage Microcredit

3,22%

1,99%

5,47%

2,37%

6,07%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13

Total Commercial Consumption

Mortgage Microcredit

Page 15: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

CHAPTER 2: MARKET OVERVIEW

i. Risk Premiums and Money Market Indicators

ii. Local Sovereign Debt (TES)

iii. Corporate Debt

iv. FX Market (USDCOP and other currencies)

v. Equities

vi. Commodities

Page 16: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

16

In May, Latam USD sovereign spreads widened amid highly volatile global market conditions

EMBI plus spread (bp) – Latam investment grade countries

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), Bloomberg

80

120

160

200

240

280

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 May-13

bp

Colombia Brazil Peru Mexico

30-Apr-13 31-May-13 Chg (bp)

Peru 130 158 28

Colombia 132 169 37

Mexico 145 170 25

Brazil 171 206 35

Latam 346 381 35

Average 32

Page 17: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

17

Local sovereign curves have experienced a bearish steepening

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), Bloomberg

Fixed Rate TES Yield Curve (% AE) UVR TES Yield Curve

3.578%3.597%

3.770%3.979%

4.101%4.532%

4.358%4.819%

4.856%

4.870%5.248%

5.285%

3.752%

3.809%

3.940%4.700%

4.948%

4.532%5.240%

5.710%

6.000%5.715%

6.388%6.350%

3.10%

3.60%

4.10%

4.60%

5.10%

5.60%

6.10%

6.60%

7.10%

Nov

-13

May

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-15

Jun-

16

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Jul-2

0

May

-22

Jul-2

4

Aug

-26

Apr

-28

17 21 17 72 85 0 88 89 114 85 114 107Var pbs

30-abr-13 31-may-13

1.50%1.70%

2.18%2.25%

2.00%

2.35%2.87% 2.50%

0.9%

1.4%

1.9%

2.4%

2.9%

3.4%

Feb

-15

May

-17

Mar

-21

Feb

-23

50 65 69 25

Var pbs

30-abr-13 31-may-13

Page 18: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

18

May was a negative month for Latin American corporate bonds

CEMBI Broad index total return (%) – by country and sector

The Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index (CEMBI) is a market capitalization weighted index consisting of US-denominated Emerging Market corporate bonds.

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), Bloomberg, BVC

-3.02%

-3.55%

-1.55%

-0.84%

-1.70%

-0.23%

-0.13%

-3.61%

-3.44%

-2.71%

-2.48%

-2.73%

-2.03%

-1.45%

-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0%

Peru

Mexico

Brazil

Colombia

Latam

CEMBI

ChileMay 2013

YTD

-2.49%

-2.68%

-0.23%

-0.64%

1.19%

0.08%

1.55%

1.85%

-3.32%

-2.81%

-2.03%

-2.57%

-1.23%

-1.99%

-1.81%

-1.53%

-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Metals & Mining

Oil & Gas

CEMBI

Telecom

Banks

Utilities

Industrial

Retail

May 2013

YTD

Page 19: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

19

Colombian peso has been one of the worst performing currencies in Latam during 2013.

However, the USDCOP volatility is still one of the lowest in the region

LATAM Currencies Performance (Index 100 = January 2013)

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), Bloomberg

LATAM currencies vs EUR volatility (minimum, maximum and last level registered in 2013)

-1.57%

-4.77%

-1.36%

1.37%

2.67%

4.19%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jan-13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13

USDBRL USDMXN USDCLP

USDPEN USDCOP USDARS

5.3%

7.4%

2.1%

3.8%2.7%

6.5%

9.2%

10.2%

5.2%

7.1%

14.9%10.4%

8.4%9.4%

10.8%

7.6%

11.7%

8.8%

BRL MXN CLP COP PEN EUR

Last

Page 20: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

20

Upward revision of the USDCOP forecast reflects an increase in current account deficit, regulatory uncertainty and potential

changes in US monetary policy

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB), Bloomberg, BanRep

USDCOP vs EMBI spread Colombia End of year exchange rate forecast

USDCOP – Quarterly Forecast

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13

bp

USDCOP

EMBI SpreadColombia

1.941

1.927

1.897

1.936

1.922

1.877

1.946

1.932

1.918

1.830

1.850

1.870

1.890

1.910

1.930

1.950

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

Page 21: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

21

Despite the COLCAP recovered part of the losses of the year during

the first weeks, the stock index ended the month below 1670

COLCAP Evolution vs Trading Volume COLCAP Monthly Variations

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, BVC May 31, 2013

-3.3%

-5.0%

2.1%

-0.3%

0.8%

7.7%

-2.8%

4.2%

1.8%

-1.2%

-3.8%-5.1%

-1.1%

-8%

-5%

-2%

1%

4%

7%

10%

May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13600

1,000

1,400

1,800

0

150

300

450

May-07 Nov-08 May-10 Nov-11 May-13

Po

ints

Bill

ion

s C

OP

COLCAP20 per. Mov. Avg. (Volumen de negociación (eje der.))20 per. moving average (Trading Volume (right axis))

Page 22: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

22

The stocks that presented the biggest advances of the local

market were Canadian oil companies, after reaching minimum levels, which created attractive opportunities for investors.

Sou

rce

: Gru

po

Ban

colo

mb

ia, B

loo

mb

erg

May

31

, 20

13

Close Price

5/31/2013 1 month 3 months 12 months YTD 2012

Col20 1,272 0.7% -8.1% -9.1% -5.8% n.a. n.a.

Colcap 1,666 -1.1% -9.4% -0.8% -8.7% n.a. n.a.

IGBC 13,352 -0.3% -9.7% -5.5% -9.3% n.a. n.a.

Icolcap 16,877 -0.8% -8.0% 0.2% -7.8% n.a. n.a.

Celsia 5,050 -4.2% -15.4% 13.2% -4.9% 3,633,902 0.8%

EEB 1,360 -0.4% -3.5% 37.5% 3.0% 12,486,401 2.9%

ISA 7,940 -5.5% -18.5% -28.2% -17.3% 8,794,962 2.0%

Isagen 2,620 3.1% 1.2% 6.5% 6.1% 7,142,309 1.6%

Corficol 36,540 3.5% 3.0% 13.5% 0.4% 6,905,724 1.6%

BVC 30 3.5% -4.8% -6.3% -1.7% 550,848 0.1%

Pref. Bancolombia 28,000 -6.4% -3.4% 3.5% -6.2% 23,596,304 5.4%

Davivienda 25,460 4.3% -1.7% 16.3% 9.1% 11,300,844 2.6%

Pref. Grupo Aval 1,400 9.4% 8.9% 20.2% 8.1% 25,972,473 6.0%

Pref. Grupo Sura 39,600 3.1% -1.0% 18.6% 3.6% 22,409,510 5.2%

Pref. Helm Bank 511 6.2% 2.6% 4.3% 6.2% 2,285,136 0.5%

Conconcreto 1,315 -3.0% -10.5% 2.7% -1.9% 467,916 0.1%

Cemargos* 7,800 -4.3% -13.3% 21.1% -24.3% 8,983,044 2.1%

Inverargos 20,160 -0.8% -12.3% 21.4% -1.7% 15,781,097 3.6%

El Cóndor 1,460 -1.4% -5.8% n.a. n.a. 838,574 0.2%

Nutresa 25,500 1.4% -4.7% 21.4% 0.5% 11,733,148 2.7%

Éxito 30,960 3.5% -12.0% 8.6% -12.8% 13,857,830 3.2%

Fabricato 10.0 -16.7% -86.1% -88.8% -86.1% 91,975 0.0%

Carvajal 4,640.0 -9.0% -0.2% n.a. n.a. 171,375 0.0%

Tablemac 7.4 -0.7% -7.4% -31.5% -11.4% 187,948 0.0%

Ecopetrol 4,080 -7.1% -21.5% -23.6% -25.1% 167,756,130 38.7%

Pacific Rubiales 40,140 4.1% -9.4% -9.6% -3.9% 11,737,492 2.7%

Canacol 5,140 13.3% -12.7% -55.3% -91.1% 2,636,578 0.6%

Petrominerales 11,200 14.5% -25.3% -50.9% -24.3% 1,024,800 0.2%

ETB 416 4.8% -1.2% -5.5% 5.1% 1,477,030 0.3%

Avianca 4,305 1.3% -5.9% 13.6% -4.5% 3,880,131 0.9%

Index

Energy

Financial

Construction and

Infraestructure

** Change calculated on the total market value (COP495 billions)

* Change estimated based on the proforma price before excision

Consumption

Industrial

Oil and Gas

Others

CompanyChange % Market Cap.

(MM)

% Market

Cap.SECTOR

Page 23: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

23

Most of the return concentration in May was inside the historical standard deviation, therefore

the volatility was lower than April’s reading

COLCAP Daily Return Semideviation – COLCAP Monthly Return

Semideviation corresponds to the deviation of the negative returns.

Source: Grupo Bancolombia, Bloomberg May 31, 2013

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1-Jan 25-Jun 17-Dec 9-Jun 1-Dec 25-May

(+ -) S.D. 90 periods moving average

0.9%

1.5%

0.7%

0.8%0.8%

0.6%

1.3%

0.5%0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

1.3%

0.8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

may-12 ago-12 nov-12 feb-13 may-13

Semideviation Return (Right Axis)

Page 24: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

CHAPTER 3: ECONOMIC SUMMARY AND MARKET RECOMMENDATIONS

Page 25: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

25

Colombian economic fundamentals have significally improved during the past 20 years

Source: Grupo Bancolombia (GB)

Key economic indicators (10-year averages)

3,4 2,94,1 4,5

9,4

18

11,8

8,5

23,321,4

63,4

34,4

29,2

8,5

4,7

24,9

16,8

2,6

-3,7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

80's 90's 00's 10's

Crecimiento económico Desempleo Inflación DTF DevaluaciónGDP Growth Unemployment Inflation STIR Currency Depreciation

Page 26: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

26

2013 year-end economic forecasts

So

urc

e:

Gru

po B

ancolo

mbia

(G

B),

Blo

om

berg

Forecast indicator 2012Prior forecast

2013

Current forecast

2013

Inflation

(CPI annual change)2.44% 3.30% 2.60%

GDP

(annual change)4.00% 4.00% 4.20%

Central Government

Surplus/Deficit

(%GDP)

-2.30% -2.40% -2.70%

Current account

(%GDP)-3.10% -3.01% -3.40%

Unemployment rate

(13 major cities)10.20% 9.28% 9.28%

FX rate

(USDCOP year end)1,766.78 1,780 1,897

FX rate

(USDCOP annual average)1,798.39 1,765 1,899

DTF 90 day rate

(E.A. year end)5.22% 4.31% 3.81%

DTF 90 day rate

(annual average) 5.34% 4.29% 3.94%

Central bank reference rate

(year end)4.25% 3.75% 3.25%

10-year bond real interest rate 3.14% 2.76% 2.57%

Page 27: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

27

So

urc

e: G

rupo B

ancolo

mbia

(G

B),

IM

F,

Fo

cus E

conom

ics

2013 year-end economic forecasts

Forecast indicator 2012Prior forecast

2013

Current forecast

2013

Euro

(EURUSD, year end)1.3193 1.3374 1.3374

Central bank reference rate FED *

(year end)0,0 - 0,25 0,0 - 0,25 0,0 - 0,25

Inflation U.S *

(CPI annual change)1.85% 1.90% 1.68%

GDP U.S. *

(annual change)2.20% 2.00% 1.90%

Central bank reference rate ECB *

(year end)0.75% 0.60% 0.52%

Inflation Eurozone *

(CPI annual change)2.20% 1.62% 1.63%

GDP Eurozone *

(annual change)-0.58% -0.20% -0.34%

Central bank reference rate Latam

(annual average)5.70% 5.70% 5.90%

Average inflation Latam

(CPI annual change)5.80% 6.40% 6.70%

GDP Latam

(annual average)2.90% 3.50% 3.50%

* The new forecast for U.S and the Eurozone correspond to IMF and Focus Economics data

Page 28: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

28

Economic Research and Fixed Income Strategy Team

Andres Ortiz Iregui Senior Economist - Latin America [email protected] (571) 3536600 Ext.15892

Egberto Alexander Riveros Saavedra Economist – Colombian Real Activity [email protected] (571) 353 6600 Ext. 15893 Carlos Arturo Zeller Rodríguez Economist – Colombian Financial Sector and Central Bank [email protected] (571) 3536600 Ext. 15770 Isabela Ossa Guerrero Intern [email protected] (571) 353 6600 Ext. 15655

Lucía Duarte Agudelo Strategist - International Sovereign Debt and FX Markets [email protected] (571) 353 6600 Ext. 15866

Brian Lesmes Abril Strategist - Republic of Colombia Debt [email protected] (571) 3536600 Ext. 15867

Carolina Hernández Mora Intern [email protected] (571) 353 6600 Ext. 15766

Juan Pablo Espinosa Arango Head of Economic Research and Fixed Income Strategy

[email protected] (571) 3535287

Page 29: MONTHLY ECONOMIC AND MARKET OVERVIEWportugalcolombia.com/media/Monthly-Economic-and-Market...3 Main highlights Latam’s economic activity decelerated in 1Q13, but should rebound in

29

Jairo Julian Agudelo Restrepo Head of Infrastructure, Consumer and Industry

[email protected]

(574) 404 6074

Natalia Agudelo Parra Head of Energy

[email protected]

(574) 404 6074

Mauricio Amador Pilonieta Head of Financial and Small Caps [email protected] (571) 353 6600 ext. 17771 Diego Alexander Buitrago Aguilar Energy analyst [email protected] .co (571) 353 6600 ext. 17770

Piedad Elena Acevedo Zuluaga

Teléfono: [4] 607 80 90 Ext. 42934 Auxiliar

[email protected] Laura Alejandra Manrique Díaz Intern [email protected] (571) 353 6600 ext. 17765 Luisa Fernanda Arce Zamudio Intern [email protected] (571) 353 6600 ext. 17764

Equity Research Team