monsanto 12-05-06

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1 ROBB FRALEY CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER CITIGROUP 17 th ANNUAL CHEMICAL CONFERENCE December 5, 2006

Transcript of monsanto 12-05-06

Page 1: monsanto 12-05-06

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ROBB FRALEYCHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER

CITIGROUP 17th ANNUAL CHEMICAL CONFERENCE

December 5, 2006

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Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.

TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen.

© 2006 Monsanto Company

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Six Building Blocks Extend Leadership and Elevate Gross Margin Opportunity Through 2010

OVERVIEW

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

CURRENT LEVEL

GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

GROSS MARGIN OPPORTUNITYGROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES

MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITYDelta between 2006 current gross margin and a 51-53% trajectory reflects continued growth opportunity for seeds and traits

FACTOR VALUE1

U.S. corn HIGH

International corn MEDIUM

Global biotech traits MEDIUM

Cotton platform LOW

Seminis MEDIUM

R&D pipeline HIGH

HIGH >$250M MEDIUM $100M - $250M LOW <$100M

1. Increment to total gross profit in the period 2006-2010; Some categories will overlap.

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Opportunity for Corn Gross Profit Increases in Next Four Years With Increased Traits and Branded Seed Share

U.S. CORN GROWTH

U.S. CornSITUATION:

• Monsanto assumes a U.S. corn market of 80M acres annually

• Largest historical swing in U.S. acreage has been less than 5 percent

OUTLOOK:

• Combination of increased penetration of stacked traits and expansion of Monsanto branded share increases relative value of a corn acre versus a soy acre

• The gross profit differential between an average soybean acre and a corn acre in a Monsanto national seed brand increases 2X in favor of corn from 2006 to 2007F

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008F 2009F 2010F

AC

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S (

IN M

ILLI

ON

S)

U.S PLANTED ACREAGETOTAL PLANTED CORN & SOYBEAN ACRES (2001-2010)1

CORN

SOYBEANS

1. USDA data and projections 2. Comparative difference in seeds-and-traits gross profit between soybeans and corn, as sold in Monsanto national seed brands

2006-2007F

In 2006, the average gross-profit differential for seeds and traits in DEKALB and Asgrow brands favored corn at ~$0.80 an acre. For 2007, that differential is expected to be ~$3.00 an acre in favor of corn.

GROSS PROFIT DIFFERENTIAL: CORN vs. SOY

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170

175

180

185

190

195

200

Monsanto’s Global Breeding Engines Deliver Yield Advantages Over Best-in-Class Competitors

2006 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON

RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)

COMPETITORS

DEKALB

BU

SH

ELS

/AC

RE

110 105 115

In 2006, across the 110-day maturity zone that covers one-third of U.S. corn production, DEKALB outperformed the competition by roughly 11 bushels per acre on average

YIELD ADVANTAGE

100 95

U.S. CORN GROWTH

U.S. CornSITUATION:

• Top 3 purchase drivers for farmers buying DEKALB corn seed all relate to performance of underlying germplasm

OUTLOOK:

• Preliminary yield data from 2006 indicates continued yield advantage versus best-in-class competitors

• Final data will be shared in January

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First Decision Farmers Make Is Seed Germplasm; More and More Farmers Have Been Choosing Monsanto Seed

U.S. CornSITUATION:

• In 2006, Monsanto’s DEKALB and Asgrow brands grew by 3 market share points

• Over 5 years, comparable market share gain was 9 points

OUTLOOK:

• Gain of 1 market share point in U.S. adds approximately $10M to $15M to corn seed gross profit in a Monsanto national seed brand

Continued gains of 1-2 points for national brands

U.S. CORN MARKET SHARE EVOLUTIONMONSANTO BRANDS AND LICENSEES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007F2006

In 2006, the addition of 1 market share point in a Monsanto national brand translated into an average incremental value of approximately $10M-$15M in gross profit opportunity for Monsanto for the seed alone

ACREAGE EXPANSION

ASGROW AND DEKALB BRANDS

AMERICAN SEEDS, INC. BRANDS

LICENSEES’ BRANDS

U.S. CORN GROWTH

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Each New Trait Stacks Additive Gross Margin to Upgrade Financial and Commercial Platform

U.S. CORN GROWTH

U.S. CornSITUATION:

• Stacking corn traits on to our germplasm improves gross profit contribution

• In 2006, Monsanto national brands sold more stacked traits than single traits

• In 2007, in our national brands, Monsanto expects to sell more triple stacks than singles

OUTLOOK:

• Addition of each stacked trait increases gross profit as a percent of sales for each bag of seed sold

INCREASED MARGINS WITH STACKINGVALUE PROGRESSION OF STACKED CORN TRAITS

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT P

ER

AC

RE

AS

A

PE

RC

EN

TA

GE

OF N

ET

SA

LES

61%

63%

65%67%

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

SEED ONLY 1 TRAIT 2 TRAITS 3 TRAITS 4 TRAITS50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

“4 trait” value assumed to be an average of the retail value of the three other first-generation traits

For currently commercialized traits, the demand for triple-stack traits can double gross profit per acre over seed alone in DEKALB/Asgrow brands

GROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES

TR

AIT

GR

OS

S P

RO

FIT

VA

LUE

PE

R A

CR

E(I

ND

EX

ED

)

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Projected Demand From Ethanol in U.S. Provides Positive Pull for Monsanto Corn Technology

U.S. CornSITUATION:

• Assumption that by 2010, ethanol is MTBE replacement –representing 10% of U.S. fuel supply

• Ethanol demand could require equivalent of up to 25M U.S. acres by 2010

OUTLOOK:

• Ethanol demand creates pull on corn that favors technologies that enhance yield, such as molecular breeding and biotech

• The average trait penetration is 2.5 X greater in areas of ethanol facilities

U.S. ETHANOL AND CORN TRAITSCORRELATION OF ETHANOL SITES AND TRAIT PENETRATION

ETHANOL PLANTS IN PRODUCTION

ETHANOL PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Average trait penetration was 2.5 X greater in areas with a high concentration of ethanol facilities compared with areas without or having low concentrations of ethanol facilities

Higher trait penetration per acre corresponds to increased gross profit per acre

U.S. CORN GROWTH

ETHANOL DRAW AREA

NON-DRAW AREA

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0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Best Combination of Germplasm and Traits Delivers Best Yield

FOCUS: YIELD PER ACRE 2006 (PRELIMINARY)

150

160

170

180

190

200 YieldGardRootworm or YieldGard Plus

Herculex® Rootworm or Herculex XTRA

BU

SH

ELS

PE

R A

CR

E

194 bu/ac

182.4 bu/ac

DEKALB PIONEER®

FOCUS: TRAIT PERFORMANCE - ROOT PROTECTION (PRELIMINARY)

DEKALB

YieldGard Rootworm or YieldGard Plus

Herculex®Rootworm or Herculex XTRA

NO

DE

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JUR

Y S

CA

LE

.17.20

Difference between two traits statistically insignificant

U.S. CORN GROWTH

U.S. CornSITUATION:

• In 2006, across four states and 267 locations, DEKALB seed with YieldGard Rootworm or YieldGard Plus outperformed competitive seed and trait performance by roughly 10 bu/ac on average

• In 2006, across 81 locations, statistically there was no difference between the performance of YieldGardRootworm or YieldGard Plus and competitive traits

OUTLOOK:

• Farmers make their seed purchase decision on the total system performance of the seed-and-trait package versus the trait or germplasm individually

PIONEER®

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TR

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U.S.YIELDGARD CORN BORER ACRES 32.1 32.3 >32 50-60

>15 25-30

60>40

10

32.7

4.1

24.8

U.S. YIELDGARD ROOTWORM ACRES

U.S. ROUNDUP READY CORN 2 ACRES

2007 FRONTLINE UPDATE:

Our national corn brands could have

more than 35 percent of all seed

sales in the form of a triple stack

For the first time, we will sell more acres of a triple-

stacked hybrid than a corn hybrid with just one trait

U.S. CORN TRAIT ACRES1 (IN MILLIONS)

1. Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.

U.S. CORN GROWTH

Unprecedented Early Season Orders Signal Strong Start to Achieve 2010 Trait Opportunity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006 2007F 2010F

2005 ACTUAL 2006 ACTUAL 2007 FORECAST2010 MARKET OPPORTUNITY

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International CornSITUATION:

• Primary value in international corn markets today is in the seed

• Breeding gains that have been made in the U.S. set pace for market share growth in other international markets

OUTLOOK:

• Monsanto is targeting to grow share in each of the most valuable corn-growing countries

TOTAL MARKET

SIZE (ACRES)

HYBRID MARKET

SIZE (ACRES)

MONSANTO BRAND SHARE

CHANGE (’04-’06)

GROSS PROFIT

VALUE PER ACRE1

OUTLOOK

EUROPE-AFRICAFrance 7.5M 7.5M

3.2M2.7M0.7M6.0M

3.9M20.6M

7.0M

5.9M

15% +5% HIGH

Italy 3.2M 21% +7% HIGH

Hungary 2.7M 32% +6% MEDIUM

Turkey 0.8M 21% +4% HIGH

South Africa 6.0M 50% +12% LOW

LATIN AMERICAMexico 17.3M 61% +3% MEDIUM

Brazil 30.8M 34% -1% LOW

Argentina 7.3M 35% FLAT LOW

ASIA-PACIFIC

India 15.6M 35% +6% LOW

• India is primary market of longer-term value in region

• Argentina is only country in region with biotech traits

• Next priority for molecular breeding

• Second most valuable market behind U.S.

• Molecular breeding application is ~ 2 years behind U.S.

1. Average incremental value in gross profit opportunity for the seed value (excluding traits) of the addition of an acre in a Monsanto brand:

HIGH >$20 MEDIUM $10 - $20 LOW <$10

Gross Profit Value of Seed Internationally Varies, Yet Still Solid Contributor to Growth, Commercial Platform

INTERNATIONAL CORN GROWTH

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Significant Growth Opportunity Lies in Expansion of Existing Commercial Biotech Traits Globally

GLOBAL BIOTECH TRAIT GROWTH

Global Biotech TraitsSITUATION:

• Historically, most rapid adoption has been in the U.S., also the most highly penetrated market

• Penetration is moving globally, trait by trait, country by country

OUTLOOK:

• As is the case in the U.S., largest category of opportunity internationally is corn trait adoption

• Even where some traits –like cotton – are penetrated, there’s still an upgrade opportunity to second- generation traits

GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITYMARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR BIOTECH TRAITS THROUGH 20101

SOYBEANS COTTON CORN

United States 70M 10-15M 6-8M 60M 50-60M 25-30M

2006 Penetration2 86% 39% 57% 29% 42% 26%

Africa 0.2M 11M 10M 6M 4M -

Total Key Markets 156.2M 34.5-

44.8M28.5-35.8M

118-120M 84-96M 36-41M

ROUNDUP READY

ROUNDUP READY(FLEX)

BOLLGARD AND

BOLLGARD II

ROUNDUP READY CORN 2

YIELDGARDCORN BORER

YIELDGARDROOTWORM

Brazil 50M 3M 2M 20M 15M 5M

Argentina 35M - - 5M 4M 1M

India - 10-15M 10-15M 3 – 5M 3 – 5M -

Europe 1M - - 24M 8M 5M

Australia - 0.5M-0.8M

0.5M-0.8M - - -

1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.2. 2006 Penetration is compared to the 2010 opportunity

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Most Significant Near-Term Opportunity in Cotton Is Upgrading to Second-Generation Traits

COTTON GROWTH

Cotton PlatformSITUATION:

• Cotton trait platform is the first to move forward on complete replacement of first-generation traits with second-generation upgrades

• Roundup Ready Flex cotton launched in the U.S. in 2006; Launched in Australia for FY2007 planting

OUTLOOK:

• Expansion of second-generation trait offerings creates opportunity to invest in penetration of higher-margin traits in Delta and Pine Land offerings

Bollgard

Roundup Ready

Bollgard II

Roundup Ready

Flex

U.S. PENETRATION OF COTTON TRAITS: 2006PENETRATION OF COTTON TRAITS IN 2006 AS

A PERCENT OF 2010 TOTAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1. Percent of total market opportunity reflects the ratio of number of actual acres planted to total trait-acre opportunity identified for each particular trait

2. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either Roundup Ready Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.

SECOND GENERATION

FIRST GENERATION

2006 SECOND-GENERATION TRAIT PENETRATION2

DELTA AND PINE LAND <10%STONEVILLE >40%

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SEMINIS VALUENET PRESENT VALUE OF GROSS PROFIT BY PRODUCT TIERS

The top 5 crops in Seminis portfolio represent ~50% of the expected gross profit contribution going forward

SEMINIS VALUE

FIRST TIER

SECOND TIER

THIRD TIER

FOURTH TIER

TomatoSweet PepperHot PepperOnionMelon

SeminisSITUATION:

• In 2006, narrowed commercial and research focus to 25 crops that generate the most profit

• Began application of breeding technology, with genome-wide marker platform for tomatoes and peppers; Melons, watermelons and the brassicafamily of cabbage, broccoli and cauliflower next

OUTLOOK:

• Seminis gross profit as a percent of sales was in the 60% range and will continue to grow through price increases

Seminis To Leverage Portfolio, Pricing and Molecular Breeding To Create New Growth

SEMINIS GROWTH

~50%

PRODUCT RANKING WITHIN 25-CROP

PORTFOLIO:

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Genetic Mapping Timetable Supports Commercial Launches of Molecular Breeding Hybrids by End of Decade

NU

MB

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OF

MA

RK

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S D

EV

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PE

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TARGET:1,000 markers

BRASSICA

TOMATO

Current Status

MELON WATERMELON

2007F 2008F 2009F

1,000

500

PEPPER

ONION, CUCUMBER, LETTUCE

SWEET CORN5,000

MARKER PLATFORMSMARKER APPLICATION FOR KEY CROPS (2006-2009)

SEMINIS GROWTH

SeminisSITUATION:

• Began application of breeding technology, with genome-wide marker platform for tomatoes and peppers

• Melons, watermelons and brassica family of cabbage, broccoli and cauliflower next

OUTLOOK:

• By 2009, Seminis should have > 10,000 markers for 9 crops

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Monsanto’s Pipeline Is Funded for Growth, but Focused on Return on Investment

PIPELINE

R&D PipelineSITUATION:

In FY2006:• There was positive

movement –advancing phases or adding to the pipeline – in 50 percent of the pipeline projects

• Three projects were designated as “HIT” projects reflecting our confidence in their commercial track

PIPELINE VALUE: TOP-TEN PROJECTSREFLECTING COMMERCIAL VALUE1

1. Top ten not presented in ranked order; Commercial value calculated by penetration and retail value during three-year span at peak.

2. Value and acres are for direct feed piece only and do not include value for Renessen’s corn processing system, which is to be determined

U.S.5M>$30Improved nutrition3Omega 3 soybeans

U.S.Brazil

Europe41M$10 - $30Insect protection3YieldGard VT PRO

2nd-GEN YIELDGARD CORN BORER

U.SBrazil

Europe10M$10 - $30Feed and fuel4

Renessen Corn Processing System and Mavera™ High-

Value Corn with Lysine2

U.S.Brazil

Argentina155M$10 - $30Yield

enhancement2Higher yielding soybeans

CORE MARKETS

ACRE BASE

VALUE PER ACRE

SOURCE OF VALUEPHASE

U.SBrazil

Europe164M$10 - $30

Nitrogen replacement and

yield1Nitrogen utilization corn

U.S.12-15M$10 - $30Improved nutrition2Vistive III soybeans

U.SBrazil

Europe164M$10 - $30

Water replacement and

yield2Drought-tolerant corn

U.S.IndiaBrazil

Australia36M$10 - $30

Water replacement and

yield1Drought-tolerant cotton

Insect-protected soybeans WITH ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD

Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans

BrazilArgentina95M<$10Yield2

U.S.Brazil

Argentina155M$10 - $30Yield

enhancement3HIT

HIT

HIT

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KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA

AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 50M 35M

PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%Roundup RReady2Yield SoybeansP R O J E C T

ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD IN THE FIELDFIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006

LOCATION:Stonington, Illinois

ACTIVITY: Monsanto researchers check performance indicators in the fields such as plant height, and pod size and number

OBSERVATIONS:25 locations across the U.S. tested

11,000 lines tested in 45 trials

Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Offer Yield Improvement Over First-Generation Roundup Ready Soybeans

PIPELINE

R&D PipelineHIT

ProjectRoundup Ready2Yield soybeans

SITUATION:

• Value is additive, with target of up to 5 bushel-per-acre yield improvement over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans

RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE

OPPORTUNITY: 155M acres

2006 STATUS: On Track

• Yield data from 45 trials will be shared in January

VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

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P R O J E C T

DROUGHT TOLERANT CORN IN THE FIELDFIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006 R&D Pipeline

HIT Project Drought-tolerant corn

SITUATION:

• Value of trait reflects better yields under moisture-stressed conditions

• Value will be specific to variable costs of water use by farmers, rather than fixed costs of irrigation

RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE

OPPORTUNITY: 164M acres

2006 STATUS: On Track

• Continued expansion of testing in lead genes and events in moisture-stressed and broad acre environments

• Currently testing hundreds of genes across several generations of drought traits

• Results will be shared in JanuaryVALUE CONSIDERATIONS:

Tests of Drought-Tolerant Corn Continue to Validate Concept

Drought-tolerant corn 0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED

24M

EUROPE

30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET

BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES

LOCATION:Vacaville, California

ACTIVITY: Monsanto researcher checks performance indicators in the field such as chlorophyl content, ear size, and plant height

OBSERVATIONS:Confirming third year of field trial data in U.S.

PIPELINE

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Six Building Blocks Extend Leadership and Elevate Gross Margin Opportunity Through 2010

SUMMARY

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

CURRENT LEVEL

GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

GROSS MARGIN OPPORTUNITYGROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES

MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITYDelta between 2006 current gross margin and a 51-53% trajectory reflects continued growth opportunity for seeds and traits

FACTOR VALUE1

U.S. corn HIGH

International corn MEDIUM

Global biotech traits MEDIUM

Cotton platform LOW

Seminis MEDIUM

R&D pipeline HIGH

HIGH >$250M MEDIUM $100M - $250M LOW <$100M

1. Increment to total gross profit in the period 2006-2010; Some categories will overlap.