monsanto 12-05-06
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Transcript of monsanto 12-05-06
1
ROBB FRALEYCHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER
CITIGROUP 17th ANNUAL CHEMICAL CONFERENCE
December 5, 2006
2
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this presentation are "forward-looking statements," such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results.
TrademarksTrademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen.
© 2006 Monsanto Company
3
Six Building Blocks Extend Leadership and Elevate Gross Margin Opportunity Through 2010
OVERVIEW
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
CURRENT LEVEL
GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
GROSS MARGIN OPPORTUNITYGROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES
MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITYDelta between 2006 current gross margin and a 51-53% trajectory reflects continued growth opportunity for seeds and traits
FACTOR VALUE1
U.S. corn HIGH
International corn MEDIUM
Global biotech traits MEDIUM
Cotton platform LOW
Seminis MEDIUM
R&D pipeline HIGH
HIGH >$250M MEDIUM $100M - $250M LOW <$100M
1. Increment to total gross profit in the period 2006-2010; Some categories will overlap.
4
Opportunity for Corn Gross Profit Increases in Next Four Years With Increased Traits and Branded Seed Share
U.S. CORN GROWTH
U.S. CornSITUATION:
• Monsanto assumes a U.S. corn market of 80M acres annually
• Largest historical swing in U.S. acreage has been less than 5 percent
OUTLOOK:
• Combination of increased penetration of stacked traits and expansion of Monsanto branded share increases relative value of a corn acre versus a soy acre
• The gross profit differential between an average soybean acre and a corn acre in a Monsanto national seed brand increases 2X in favor of corn from 2006 to 2007F
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008F 2009F 2010F
AC
RE
S (
IN M
ILLI
ON
S)
U.S PLANTED ACREAGETOTAL PLANTED CORN & SOYBEAN ACRES (2001-2010)1
CORN
SOYBEANS
1. USDA data and projections 2. Comparative difference in seeds-and-traits gross profit between soybeans and corn, as sold in Monsanto national seed brands
2006-2007F
In 2006, the average gross-profit differential for seeds and traits in DEKALB and Asgrow brands favored corn at ~$0.80 an acre. For 2007, that differential is expected to be ~$3.00 an acre in favor of corn.
GROSS PROFIT DIFFERENTIAL: CORN vs. SOY
5
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
Monsanto’s Global Breeding Engines Deliver Yield Advantages Over Best-in-Class Competitors
2006 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON
RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)
COMPETITORS
DEKALB
BU
SH
ELS
/AC
RE
110 105 115
In 2006, across the 110-day maturity zone that covers one-third of U.S. corn production, DEKALB outperformed the competition by roughly 11 bushels per acre on average
YIELD ADVANTAGE
100 95
U.S. CORN GROWTH
U.S. CornSITUATION:
• Top 3 purchase drivers for farmers buying DEKALB corn seed all relate to performance of underlying germplasm
OUTLOOK:
• Preliminary yield data from 2006 indicates continued yield advantage versus best-in-class competitors
• Final data will be shared in January
6
First Decision Farmers Make Is Seed Germplasm; More and More Farmers Have Been Choosing Monsanto Seed
U.S. CornSITUATION:
• In 2006, Monsanto’s DEKALB and Asgrow brands grew by 3 market share points
• Over 5 years, comparable market share gain was 9 points
OUTLOOK:
• Gain of 1 market share point in U.S. adds approximately $10M to $15M to corn seed gross profit in a Monsanto national seed brand
Continued gains of 1-2 points for national brands
U.S. CORN MARKET SHARE EVOLUTIONMONSANTO BRANDS AND LICENSEES
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007F2006
In 2006, the addition of 1 market share point in a Monsanto national brand translated into an average incremental value of approximately $10M-$15M in gross profit opportunity for Monsanto for the seed alone
ACREAGE EXPANSION
ASGROW AND DEKALB BRANDS
AMERICAN SEEDS, INC. BRANDS
LICENSEES’ BRANDS
U.S. CORN GROWTH
7
Each New Trait Stacks Additive Gross Margin to Upgrade Financial and Commercial Platform
U.S. CORN GROWTH
U.S. CornSITUATION:
• Stacking corn traits on to our germplasm improves gross profit contribution
• In 2006, Monsanto national brands sold more stacked traits than single traits
• In 2007, in our national brands, Monsanto expects to sell more triple stacks than singles
OUTLOOK:
• Addition of each stacked trait increases gross profit as a percent of sales for each bag of seed sold
INCREASED MARGINS WITH STACKINGVALUE PROGRESSION OF STACKED CORN TRAITS
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT P
ER
AC
RE
AS
A
PE
RC
EN
TA
GE
OF N
ET
SA
LES
61%
63%
65%67%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
SEED ONLY 1 TRAIT 2 TRAITS 3 TRAITS 4 TRAITS50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
“4 trait” value assumed to be an average of the retail value of the three other first-generation traits
For currently commercialized traits, the demand for triple-stack traits can double gross profit per acre over seed alone in DEKALB/Asgrow brands
GROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES
TR
AIT
GR
OS
S P
RO
FIT
VA
LUE
PE
R A
CR
E(I
ND
EX
ED
)
8
Projected Demand From Ethanol in U.S. Provides Positive Pull for Monsanto Corn Technology
U.S. CornSITUATION:
• Assumption that by 2010, ethanol is MTBE replacement –representing 10% of U.S. fuel supply
• Ethanol demand could require equivalent of up to 25M U.S. acres by 2010
OUTLOOK:
• Ethanol demand creates pull on corn that favors technologies that enhance yield, such as molecular breeding and biotech
• The average trait penetration is 2.5 X greater in areas of ethanol facilities
U.S. ETHANOL AND CORN TRAITSCORRELATION OF ETHANOL SITES AND TRAIT PENETRATION
ETHANOL PLANTS IN PRODUCTION
ETHANOL PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Average trait penetration was 2.5 X greater in areas with a high concentration of ethanol facilities compared with areas without or having low concentrations of ethanol facilities
Higher trait penetration per acre corresponds to increased gross profit per acre
U.S. CORN GROWTH
ETHANOL DRAW AREA
NON-DRAW AREA
9
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Best Combination of Germplasm and Traits Delivers Best Yield
FOCUS: YIELD PER ACRE 2006 (PRELIMINARY)
150
160
170
180
190
200 YieldGardRootworm or YieldGard Plus
Herculex® Rootworm or Herculex XTRA
BU
SH
ELS
PE
R A
CR
E
194 bu/ac
182.4 bu/ac
DEKALB PIONEER®
FOCUS: TRAIT PERFORMANCE - ROOT PROTECTION (PRELIMINARY)
DEKALB
YieldGard Rootworm or YieldGard Plus
Herculex®Rootworm or Herculex XTRA
NO
DE
IN
JUR
Y S
CA
LE
.17.20
Difference between two traits statistically insignificant
U.S. CORN GROWTH
U.S. CornSITUATION:
• In 2006, across four states and 267 locations, DEKALB seed with YieldGard Rootworm or YieldGard Plus outperformed competitive seed and trait performance by roughly 10 bu/ac on average
• In 2006, across 81 locations, statistically there was no difference between the performance of YieldGardRootworm or YieldGard Plus and competitive traits
OUTLOOK:
• Farmers make their seed purchase decision on the total system performance of the seed-and-trait package versus the trait or germplasm individually
PIONEER®
10
TR
AIT
AC
RE
S I
N M
ILLI
ON
S
U.S.YIELDGARD CORN BORER ACRES 32.1 32.3 >32 50-60
>15 25-30
60>40
10
32.7
4.1
24.8
U.S. YIELDGARD ROOTWORM ACRES
U.S. ROUNDUP READY CORN 2 ACRES
2007 FRONTLINE UPDATE:
Our national corn brands could have
more than 35 percent of all seed
sales in the form of a triple stack
For the first time, we will sell more acres of a triple-
stacked hybrid than a corn hybrid with just one trait
U.S. CORN TRAIT ACRES1 (IN MILLIONS)
1. Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres.
U.S. CORN GROWTH
Unprecedented Early Season Orders Signal Strong Start to Achieve 2010 Trait Opportunity
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007F 2010F
2005 ACTUAL 2006 ACTUAL 2007 FORECAST2010 MARKET OPPORTUNITY
11
International CornSITUATION:
• Primary value in international corn markets today is in the seed
• Breeding gains that have been made in the U.S. set pace for market share growth in other international markets
OUTLOOK:
• Monsanto is targeting to grow share in each of the most valuable corn-growing countries
TOTAL MARKET
SIZE (ACRES)
HYBRID MARKET
SIZE (ACRES)
MONSANTO BRAND SHARE
CHANGE (’04-’06)
GROSS PROFIT
VALUE PER ACRE1
OUTLOOK
EUROPE-AFRICAFrance 7.5M 7.5M
3.2M2.7M0.7M6.0M
3.9M20.6M
7.0M
5.9M
15% +5% HIGH
Italy 3.2M 21% +7% HIGH
Hungary 2.7M 32% +6% MEDIUM
Turkey 0.8M 21% +4% HIGH
South Africa 6.0M 50% +12% LOW
LATIN AMERICAMexico 17.3M 61% +3% MEDIUM
Brazil 30.8M 34% -1% LOW
Argentina 7.3M 35% FLAT LOW
ASIA-PACIFIC
India 15.6M 35% +6% LOW
• India is primary market of longer-term value in region
• Argentina is only country in region with biotech traits
• Next priority for molecular breeding
• Second most valuable market behind U.S.
• Molecular breeding application is ~ 2 years behind U.S.
1. Average incremental value in gross profit opportunity for the seed value (excluding traits) of the addition of an acre in a Monsanto brand:
HIGH >$20 MEDIUM $10 - $20 LOW <$10
Gross Profit Value of Seed Internationally Varies, Yet Still Solid Contributor to Growth, Commercial Platform
INTERNATIONAL CORN GROWTH
12
Significant Growth Opportunity Lies in Expansion of Existing Commercial Biotech Traits Globally
GLOBAL BIOTECH TRAIT GROWTH
Global Biotech TraitsSITUATION:
• Historically, most rapid adoption has been in the U.S., also the most highly penetrated market
• Penetration is moving globally, trait by trait, country by country
OUTLOOK:
• As is the case in the U.S., largest category of opportunity internationally is corn trait adoption
• Even where some traits –like cotton – are penetrated, there’s still an upgrade opportunity to second- generation traits
GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITYMARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR BIOTECH TRAITS THROUGH 20101
SOYBEANS COTTON CORN
United States 70M 10-15M 6-8M 60M 50-60M 25-30M
2006 Penetration2 86% 39% 57% 29% 42% 26%
Africa 0.2M 11M 10M 6M 4M -
Total Key Markets 156.2M 34.5-
44.8M28.5-35.8M
118-120M 84-96M 36-41M
ROUNDUP READY
ROUNDUP READY(FLEX)
BOLLGARD AND
BOLLGARD II
ROUNDUP READY CORN 2
YIELDGARDCORN BORER
YIELDGARDROOTWORM
Brazil 50M 3M 2M 20M 15M 5M
Argentina 35M - - 5M 4M 1M
India - 10-15M 10-15M 3 – 5M 3 – 5M -
Europe 1M - - 24M 8M 5M
Australia - 0.5M-0.8M
0.5M-0.8M - - -
1. Market Opportunity reflects total acres where technology is applicable, not necessarily acres projected for penetration by 2010.2. 2006 Penetration is compared to the 2010 opportunity
13
Most Significant Near-Term Opportunity in Cotton Is Upgrading to Second-Generation Traits
COTTON GROWTH
Cotton PlatformSITUATION:
• Cotton trait platform is the first to move forward on complete replacement of first-generation traits with second-generation upgrades
• Roundup Ready Flex cotton launched in the U.S. in 2006; Launched in Australia for FY2007 planting
OUTLOOK:
• Expansion of second-generation trait offerings creates opportunity to invest in penetration of higher-margin traits in Delta and Pine Land offerings
Bollgard
Roundup Ready
Bollgard II
Roundup Ready
Flex
U.S. PENETRATION OF COTTON TRAITS: 2006PENETRATION OF COTTON TRAITS IN 2006 AS
A PERCENT OF 2010 TOTAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1. Percent of total market opportunity reflects the ratio of number of actual acres planted to total trait-acre opportunity identified for each particular trait
2. Second-generation trait penetration reflects percent of commercial portfolio containing either Roundup Ready Flex, Bollgard II or both traits.
SECOND GENERATION
FIRST GENERATION
2006 SECOND-GENERATION TRAIT PENETRATION2
DELTA AND PINE LAND <10%STONEVILLE >40%
14
SEMINIS VALUENET PRESENT VALUE OF GROSS PROFIT BY PRODUCT TIERS
The top 5 crops in Seminis portfolio represent ~50% of the expected gross profit contribution going forward
SEMINIS VALUE
FIRST TIER
SECOND TIER
THIRD TIER
FOURTH TIER
TomatoSweet PepperHot PepperOnionMelon
SeminisSITUATION:
• In 2006, narrowed commercial and research focus to 25 crops that generate the most profit
• Began application of breeding technology, with genome-wide marker platform for tomatoes and peppers; Melons, watermelons and the brassicafamily of cabbage, broccoli and cauliflower next
OUTLOOK:
• Seminis gross profit as a percent of sales was in the 60% range and will continue to grow through price increases
Seminis To Leverage Portfolio, Pricing and Molecular Breeding To Create New Growth
SEMINIS GROWTH
~50%
PRODUCT RANKING WITHIN 25-CROP
PORTFOLIO:
15
Genetic Mapping Timetable Supports Commercial Launches of Molecular Breeding Hybrids by End of Decade
NU
MB
ER
OF
MA
RK
ER
S D
EV
ELO
PE
D
TARGET:1,000 markers
BRASSICA
TOMATO
Current Status
MELON WATERMELON
2007F 2008F 2009F
1,000
500
PEPPER
ONION, CUCUMBER, LETTUCE
SWEET CORN5,000
MARKER PLATFORMSMARKER APPLICATION FOR KEY CROPS (2006-2009)
SEMINIS GROWTH
SeminisSITUATION:
• Began application of breeding technology, with genome-wide marker platform for tomatoes and peppers
• Melons, watermelons and brassica family of cabbage, broccoli and cauliflower next
OUTLOOK:
• By 2009, Seminis should have > 10,000 markers for 9 crops
16
Monsanto’s Pipeline Is Funded for Growth, but Focused on Return on Investment
PIPELINE
R&D PipelineSITUATION:
In FY2006:• There was positive
movement –advancing phases or adding to the pipeline – in 50 percent of the pipeline projects
• Three projects were designated as “HIT” projects reflecting our confidence in their commercial track
PIPELINE VALUE: TOP-TEN PROJECTSREFLECTING COMMERCIAL VALUE1
1. Top ten not presented in ranked order; Commercial value calculated by penetration and retail value during three-year span at peak.
2. Value and acres are for direct feed piece only and do not include value for Renessen’s corn processing system, which is to be determined
U.S.5M>$30Improved nutrition3Omega 3 soybeans
U.S.Brazil
Europe41M$10 - $30Insect protection3YieldGard VT PRO
2nd-GEN YIELDGARD CORN BORER
U.SBrazil
Europe10M$10 - $30Feed and fuel4
Renessen Corn Processing System and Mavera™ High-
Value Corn with Lysine2
U.S.Brazil
Argentina155M$10 - $30Yield
enhancement2Higher yielding soybeans
CORE MARKETS
ACRE BASE
VALUE PER ACRE
SOURCE OF VALUEPHASE
U.SBrazil
Europe164M$10 - $30
Nitrogen replacement and
yield1Nitrogen utilization corn
U.S.12-15M$10 - $30Improved nutrition2Vistive III soybeans
U.SBrazil
Europe164M$10 - $30
Water replacement and
yield2Drought-tolerant corn
U.S.IndiaBrazil
Australia36M$10 - $30
Water replacement and
yield1Drought-tolerant cotton
Insect-protected soybeans WITH ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD
Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans
BrazilArgentina95M<$10Yield2
U.S.Brazil
Argentina155M$10 - $30Yield
enhancement3HIT
HIT
HIT
17
KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA
AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 50M 35M
PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0%Roundup RReady2Yield SoybeansP R O J E C T
ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD IN THE FIELDFIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006
LOCATION:Stonington, Illinois
ACTIVITY: Monsanto researchers check performance indicators in the fields such as plant height, and pod size and number
OBSERVATIONS:25 locations across the U.S. tested
11,000 lines tested in 45 trials
Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Offer Yield Improvement Over First-Generation Roundup Ready Soybeans
PIPELINE
R&D PipelineHIT
ProjectRoundup Ready2Yield soybeans
SITUATION:
• Value is additive, with target of up to 5 bushel-per-acre yield improvement over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans
RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE
OPPORTUNITY: 155M acres
2006 STATUS: On Track
• Yield data from 45 trials will be shared in January
VALUE CONSIDERATIONS:
18
P R O J E C T
DROUGHT TOLERANT CORN IN THE FIELDFIELD TRIAL PHOTOS FROM 2006 R&D Pipeline
HIT Project Drought-tolerant corn
SITUATION:
• Value of trait reflects better yields under moisture-stressed conditions
• Value will be specific to variable costs of water use by farmers, rather than fixed costs of irrigation
RETAIL VALUE/ACRE: $10 - $30/acreTOTAL ACRE
OPPORTUNITY: 164M acres
2006 STATUS: On Track
• Continued expansion of testing in lead genes and events in moisture-stressed and broad acre environments
• Currently testing hundreds of genes across several generations of drought traits
• Results will be shared in JanuaryVALUE CONSIDERATIONS:
Tests of Drought-Tolerant Corn Continue to Validate Concept
Drought-tolerant corn 0%0%0%PERCENT PENETRATED
24M
EUROPE
30M80MAVAILABLE MARKET
BRAZILU.S.KEY MARKET ACRES
LOCATION:Vacaville, California
ACTIVITY: Monsanto researcher checks performance indicators in the field such as chlorophyl content, ear size, and plant height
OBSERVATIONS:Confirming third year of field trial data in U.S.
PIPELINE
19
Six Building Blocks Extend Leadership and Elevate Gross Margin Opportunity Through 2010
SUMMARY
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
CURRENT LEVEL
GROSS MARGIN ‘PULL’
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
GROSS MARGIN OPPORTUNITYGROSS PROFIT AS A PERCENT OF SALES
MONSANTO’S OPPORTUNITYDelta between 2006 current gross margin and a 51-53% trajectory reflects continued growth opportunity for seeds and traits
FACTOR VALUE1
U.S. corn HIGH
International corn MEDIUM
Global biotech traits MEDIUM
Cotton platform LOW
Seminis MEDIUM
R&D pipeline HIGH
HIGH >$250M MEDIUM $100M - $250M LOW <$100M
1. Increment to total gross profit in the period 2006-2010; Some categories will overlap.