Monitoring/modelling activities on POPs in 2015 and future work Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E...
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Monitoring/modelling activities on POPs in 2015 and future work Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC
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Transcript of Monitoring/modelling activities on POPs in 2015 and future work Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E...
Monitoring/modelling activities on POPs in 2015 and future work
Victor Shatalov on behalf of MSC-E and
CCC
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Work-plan items on POPs in 2015
Activity Body Work-plan elements
Collection of monitoring data and trend analysis
CCC 1.1.4, 1.1.8
Emission data for modelling CEIP, MSC-E 1.3.8, 1.4.4
Further development of GLEMOS system for POPs
MSC-E 1.3.4, 1.3.8
Current state of transboundary pollution in 2013
MSC-E 1.3.2., 1.3.6
Long-term trends of POP pollution, 1990 – 2012
TFMM, MSC-E, CCC
1.1.4, 1.3.4, 1.1.8
Co-operation with national experts, international organizations and programmes (TFMM, WGE, UNEP SC, HELCOM, …)
MSC-E 1.1.7
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Research activity
Additional emission data for modelling
• Congener composition of emissions
• Seasonal variations of emissions
1.3.8, 1.4.4Assessment of pollution on regional/global
scale
• Gridded emissions on a global scale
EMEP
PCDD/F emissions to airOn the basis of UNEP SC
data1990 – 2012
EMEP
• Emissions to other compartments
PCDD/F emissions to soilOn the basis of UNEP SC
data1990 – 2012
• Historical emissions (1945 - 1990)
Historical emissions of HCB
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
t/y
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Assessment of pollution on regional/global scale
Measurement data: EMEP, UNEP SC GMP Data Warehouse, …, 1990 – 2013
Research activity 1.3.4, 1.3.8
Additional measurements used for PCB-153 and HCB assessment of pollution
HCB
EMEP measurements (CCC)
PCB-153
GMP UNEPMONET
AMAP
IADN
NCP
GAPS
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Measurement data: EMEP, UNEP SC GMP Data Warehouse, …, 1995 – 2012
Research activity 1.3.4, 1.3.8
Calculations: 1930 – 2012
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
Northern America
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
Southern America
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
Africa
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
Asia and Pacific
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Observed, pg/m3
Mo
de
lled
, pg
/m3
EMEP
EMEP domain
Assessment of pollution on regional/global scale
Additional measurements used for PCB assessment of pollution
Contribution to UNEP SC GMP global report
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Additional measurements/emissions used for PCDD/F assessment of pollution
Evaluation of PCDD/F global transport and fate based on EMEP official data and UNEP SC emission inventory and research monitoring data
Research activity 1.3.4, 1.3.8Assessment of pollution on regional/global
scale
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg I-TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lle
d,
fg I
-TE
Q/m
3 North America
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg I-TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lle
d,
fg I
-TE
Q/m
3 North AmericaNorthern America
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg I-TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lle
d,
fg I
-TE
Q/m
3 Eastern Asia
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg I-TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lle
d,
fg I
-TE
Q/m
3 Eastern AsiaEastern Asia
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lled
, fg
TE
Q/m
3
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lled
, fg
TE
Q/m
3
South America
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg I-TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lle
d,
fg I
-TE
Q/m
3
EuropeEMEP
no measurements under EMEP
Modelling results against observed PCDD/F air concentrations in various
regions
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Research activity 1.3.4, 1.3.8Assessment of pollution on regional/global
scale
Calculated annual mean air concentrations of PCDD/Fs
in the EMEP domain for 2013
Additional measurements/emissions used for PCDD/F assessment of pollution
Modelling results against observed PCDD/F air concentrations in various
regions
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
1.3.4, 1.3.8Assessment of pollution on regional/global
scale
Deposition to EMEP countries in 2013 from emissions of the current year
Research activity
Additional measurements/emissions used for PCDD/F assessment of pollution
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Por
tug
al
Spa
in
Irel
and
Sw
eden
Nor
wa
y
Fin
land
Ice
land
Con
trib
utio
n, %
Non-EMEPemissions
Transboundarytransport
Nationalemissions
… … … …Modelling results against observed PCDD/F air concentrations in various
regions
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Pollution in 2013
Concentration of 4 indicator PAHs (B[a]P, B[b]F, B[k]F, IP),
measured/calculated for 2013
1.3.2, 1.3.6
Assessment of pollution in the EMEP region
B[a]P measurements, 2013 (CCC)
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Pollution in 2013
Concentration of 4 indicator PAHs (B[a]P, B[b]F, B[k]F, IP),
measured/calculated for 2013
1.3.2, 1.3.6
Assessment of pollution in the EMEP region
Elevated concentrations in Central Europe
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10
Observed, ng/m 3
Mo
de
lled
, ng
/m 3
B[a]P
IP
B[k]F
B[b]F
Measurement/modelling agreement
Agreement within a factor of 2 at most locations
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Information for effect evaluation (examples)
Estimated number of people living in regions where B[a]P air concentrations exceed EU target value of 1 ng/m3 in EMEP countries in 2012. Arrows show decrease/increase of average air concentrations.
Effects on human health
1.1.4, 1.3.4, 1.3.8
Additional information
Changes of B[a]P deposition to deciduous forest and arable lands within the EMEP region
Effects on the environment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
g/k
m2
/y
Deciduous forestArable lands
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Ukr
ain
e
Po
lan
d
Tu
rke
y
Be
lgiu
m
Ro
ma
nia
Hu
ng
ary
Ru
ssia
Ne
the
rlan
ds
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Ge
rma
ny
Slo
vaki
a
Po
pu
lati
on
, mln
of
pe
op
le
EEA indicator reports on HM and POP emissions, 2015
Increase of B(a)P emissions
“BaP emissions have increased over the last decade by more than 20%, driven by the increase (24%) in emissions from domestic combustion in Europe. Exposure of European citizens to B[a]P is therefore a matter of increasing concern.”
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
MSC-E work-plan elements in 2016 - 2017
Prepare contributions to TFMM and WGE reports on trends and CLRTAP Assessment report
Perform country-specific trend analysis of PCDD/Fs, PCB-153 and HCB
Evaluate POP background pollution levels in selected cities of the EMEP domain
Transition to long-lat grid at various spatial resolutions. Investigate processes of interactions between POPs and atmospheric aerosol
Further develop integrated emission/monitoring/modelling approach of evaluation of POP pollution
Further co-operate with international bodies (AMAP, UNEP SC, HELCOM, …)
Evaluate POP contamination levels and transboundary transport in the EMEP region for 2014 - 2015, including ecosystem-dependent deposition
Joint EMEP WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015
Issue for discussion
What is needed for better quality assessment of POP pollution levels in the EMEP domain ?
Additional data:
- emissions (gridded on a global scale, to other compartments, historical, seasonal variations, …)
- measurements on regional and global scale from relevant international and national programs
- PCDD/Fs measurements under EMEP
How to enhance cooperation with WGE ?
(In particular, adverse effect of B[a]P on human health and environment)
